Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jim Tanker's Lee, the White House correspondent with a focus
on economic policy for The New York Times. Author also
a couple of years back of the Riches of This Land,
The Untold True Story of America's Middle Class, which I
haven't read but sounds really interesting. Jim, how are you, sir,
I'm great. Thanks for having me. You definitely to read
the book. It's good. Oh yeah, you know what, By god,
I'm going to read it twice just to make up
(00:20):
for not having read it up till now. Thank you,
Thank you very much. So our question is what the hell?
That's our question about the economy. The various numbers do
not match up with history. What the hell? Welcome to
my world. This is what I I loki every day
and confront this question. It's a weird time, right, I mean,
in some ways that makes a lot of sense. We
(00:42):
we've just been through an incredibly weird time as a country.
We're still in it um with the pandemic and the
pandemic recession and then the recovery out of it. And
I think the easiest way to put it is, we're
just seeing some things we haven't seen in a long time.
In the economy because we're still working the thinks out
you know, like you guys were mentioning, people have not
(01:03):
flocked back to their jobs as fast. I think is
at some economist thought, we have a lot of help
wanted ads out there still, um, and people are still
buying stuff at a really uh fast clip that just
they can't get their hands on. So it's pushed a
lot of prices up. And then you know, you ad
an oil shock from a war uh halfway around the
(01:24):
world on top of that, and it's a recipe for
just a weird time for sure. And so if indeed
it is confirmed that we are in a technical recession
or something like that, what's your reaction to that news.
I mean, I think, um, first off, there's a lot
of reasons why. You know, for example, the FED chair J.
Pale yesterday said we're probably not in what will eventually
(01:48):
be considered a recession, um because particularly because job growth
is still so strong. But it's that that doesn't mean
it's not a very concerning time in the economy or
that we you know, we could be in recession uh
any day now. Um. It is, it's a really concerning
time in the economy, and I think high inflation is
the big reason why people's real incomes so they're buying power,
(02:12):
are going down for the most part. And that's. Um,
everybody feels that. Everybody feels that that that you know,
food is harder to get, gasoline is harder to get
than it was a year ago for the money that
you have, and um, and the worry would be that
that feeds through to everything that employers stop hiring and
start laying people off and then and then you're in
a really bad shape. But um, what the Fed is
(02:34):
trying to do, and now what the Congress may be
trying to do a little bit, is to to push
back against inflation, try to relieve pressure on prices and
and see if they can get the economy kind of
back towards something that looks like normal. Well, so whether
or not the you know, the geniuses decide we're in
a recession or not. I saw some pulling that of
(02:57):
Americans think we're in a re action. So you know,
that's a that's a pretty big deal politically or in
terms of spending habits, although you just mentioned people are
still buying stuff like crazy. Um. The coverage of economics
has always bothered me because people like to get excited
about various things. But would wouldn't it be fair to say,
so yesterday you have the Fed raised interest rates to
(03:21):
try to slow down the economy because that's what inflation is.
It's too hot. We got to slow it down. We
find out today where either in a recession or close
to it because the economy is slowed down. That was
the whole point. I mean, so, isn't that just good
news more or less? Um? Well, yes, And if the
goal is to slow down the economy and the next
(03:42):
day you find out the economy is slowing down, it
just seems like a win, right, And I think that
I think you know, Chairman Colle was asked about this yesterday,
I mean said, is well aware of the ways the
economy has been slowing, and they know they've been raising
interest rates. They're trying to slow it down, but they
don't see as much of the slowing as they want
to see yet, not necessarily in terms of growth, but
(04:02):
in terms of the job market. But what they want
is to is to get um sort of less pressure
on prices by reducing sort of the demand out there
that people have for things. And they think they're they're
being successful, but they're going to keep pushing really hard
because they want financial markets and and people um to
believe that the FETE is going to reduce inflation so
(04:25):
so that we don't get in this spiral where people
expect prices to be higher and so they demand higher
wages and that just speeds, you know, becomes self self
defeating basically. Um So, But to back up to what
you just think, I think it's really important. I think
that everybody feels like the economy is in a not
great place right now. It's not just the or whatever.
(04:46):
The various polls shows slightly different numbers, but it's like
a majority of Americans think we're in recession. It's consumer
competences is in the tank. Um. People have very low
approval leadings of the President of the economy right now.
People just feel like it's lousy. And that's despite the
fact that the uneplant rate is three point six percent
and and we're still creating hundreds of thousands of jobs
a month. So um, I think that what the FETE
(05:09):
is trying to do is attack the thing that is
making people feel most loudly, which is inflation. And it's
not worrying so much about these economic growth numbers we've
seen so far, um, especially because unemployment so low. Jim
Tankers leave The New York Times is on the line.
Excuse me, Jim, I'm just getting over COVID. Perhaps you've
heard about it. It's a disease that allegedly came from
(05:31):
Chinese bats. Anyway, UM, into all of this difficult to
comprehend economic mix comes yet another factor in this new
plan that the Senate seems to be ready to pass,
a giant new spending proposal dealing with climate to energy,
non related stuff, all sorts of stuff. What's your reaction
(05:52):
to that. I know you're part of the team writing
about the brand new deal. I boy, I have been
covering this deal for what feels like half of my
adult life now, as as it goes through various iterations
in the Senate. You know, it was it started off
as a proposal from the President that the Democrats then
put into budget language, and then it it rose and
(06:15):
fell and rose and fell, and at this point, I'm
you know, I'll believe that it's actually real when the
President has signed it into law. However, what they announced
yesterday is definitely a much bigger deal. UM. For the
Democratic agenda than what it appeared they had on the
table just a few days ago. Um. The big components
are a prescription drug price reductions for for medicare, which
(06:37):
is something that they were probably going to do anyway. Um.
But then um, a whole bunch of energy spending and
tax credit. Essentially, it's mostly tax cuts um meant to
transition the country to like lower emission sources of energy,
both both for cars and for electricity. And then some
tax increases and corporations basically that that offset that and
(06:58):
and pay down the federal budget. Epicite. Um all And
I've been talking all morning to economists, as one does,
about what it might do for inflation, and the general
consensus is maybe it has a little bit of a
of a of a positive effect, but which I mean
bringing down prices, especially over the medium terms. Wait, wait,
wait a second, I just want to make sure I
(07:20):
understand that the bill that is named an anti inflation bill.
You talked to a bunch of economists and they said
maybe it has a little bit Yeah, no, the no.
You know economists, most economists are pretty uh, pretty nuanced folks,
as you guys have been noting throughout this conversation. Um,
and so that they have some forecasts. But yeah, nope,
(07:41):
I've talked to us said this is going to dramatically
cut inflation. And I don't think there's any way you
could expect that that would be the case. It's just
not enough money. But it's but there there are a
lot of economists who think, um that on the margins
it will be helpful. And then in particular areas like
like drug costs for for seniors who are on Medicare, Uh,
(08:04):
it could be you know, especially impactful. But it's uh
for something called the Inflation Production Act. Uh, it is
not a massive attack on inflation. Um. And you know,
no matter what anybody does politically says about it, it's
sort of the economic consptants. Interesting. Well, I'm glad you
brought that up. That's that's interesting news. Jim tankers Lee
(08:26):
of The New York Times. Jim, I had forgotten you're
from beautiful McMinnville. Ore Again. I love the will Lambent value.
What a beautiful part of the country. Uh, it is.
It's great. It's uh it is. It is beautiful and
and spectacular and uh and I miss it all the time.
Nice folks, and some fine Peano noir for sipping. Jim.
Always great to talk to you. Thanks for the time,
Thank you so much for having me. It's always great. So, yeah,
(08:48):
that was good. And he's he's really good Jim. He
used to be with the Post. Now he's worth the
with the Times. And that's a New York Times economic
reporter saying he taught to a bunch of different economists.
I'm sure that he respects, or he wouldn't be calling
him about the big giant anti inflationary bill bull crap.
(09:09):
You can call it that, you can call it the
given Panda's Better Erections Bill if you want. It's spending
a ton of money on a bunch of stuff that
seems like they'd be a weird, misleading name. I don't
think there's a dollar in there for panda directions. Well,
if there were, they could name it that. That's my point.
The name is arbitrary political bull duty. But if the
(09:31):
New York Times economics guy talks to his friends and
they say, yeah, maybe a little, I mean, come here
on the edges,
Jim Tanker's Lee, the White House correspondent with a focus
on economic policy for The New York Times. Author also
a couple of years back of the Riches of This Land,
The Untold True Story of America's Middle Class, which I
haven't read but sounds really interesting. Jim, how are you, sir,
I'm great. Thanks for having me. You definitely to read
the book. It's good. Oh yeah, you know what, By god,
I'm going to read it twice just to make up
(00:20):
for not having read it up till now. Thank you,
Thank you very much. So our question is what the hell?
That's our question about the economy. The various numbers do
not match up with history. What the hell? Welcome to
my world. This is what I I loki every day
and confront this question. It's a weird time, right, I mean,
in some ways that makes a lot of sense. We
(00:42):
we've just been through an incredibly weird time as a country.
We're still in it um with the pandemic and the
pandemic recession and then the recovery out of it. And
I think the easiest way to put it is, we're
just seeing some things we haven't seen in a long time.
In the economy because we're still working the thinks out
you know, like you guys were mentioning, people have not
(01:03):
flocked back to their jobs as fast. I think is
at some economist thought, we have a lot of help
wanted ads out there still, um, and people are still
buying stuff at a really uh fast clip that just
they can't get their hands on. So it's pushed a
lot of prices up. And then you know, you ad
an oil shock from a war uh halfway around the
(01:24):
world on top of that, and it's a recipe for
just a weird time for sure. And so if indeed
it is confirmed that we are in a technical recession
or something like that, what's your reaction to that news.
I mean, I think, um, first off, there's a lot
of reasons why. You know, for example, the FED chair J.
Pale yesterday said we're probably not in what will eventually
(01:48):
be considered a recession, um because particularly because job growth
is still so strong. But it's that that doesn't mean
it's not a very concerning time in the economy or
that we you know, we could be in recession uh
any day now. Um. It is, it's a really concerning
time in the economy, and I think high inflation is
the big reason why people's real incomes so they're buying power,
(02:12):
are going down for the most part. And that's. Um,
everybody feels that. Everybody feels that that that you know,
food is harder to get, gasoline is harder to get
than it was a year ago for the money that
you have, and um, and the worry would be that
that feeds through to everything that employers stop hiring and
start laying people off and then and then you're in
a really bad shape. But um, what the Fed is
(02:34):
trying to do, and now what the Congress may be
trying to do a little bit, is to to push
back against inflation, try to relieve pressure on prices and
and see if they can get the economy kind of
back towards something that looks like normal. Well, so whether
or not the you know, the geniuses decide we're in
a recession or not. I saw some pulling that of
(02:57):
Americans think we're in a re action. So you know,
that's a that's a pretty big deal politically or in
terms of spending habits, although you just mentioned people are
still buying stuff like crazy. Um. The coverage of economics
has always bothered me because people like to get excited
about various things. But would wouldn't it be fair to say,
so yesterday you have the Fed raised interest rates to
(03:21):
try to slow down the economy because that's what inflation is.
It's too hot. We got to slow it down. We
find out today where either in a recession or close
to it because the economy is slowed down. That was
the whole point. I mean, so, isn't that just good
news more or less? Um? Well, yes, And if the
goal is to slow down the economy and the next
(03:42):
day you find out the economy is slowing down, it
just seems like a win, right, And I think that
I think you know, Chairman Colle was asked about this yesterday,
I mean said, is well aware of the ways the
economy has been slowing, and they know they've been raising
interest rates. They're trying to slow it down, but they
don't see as much of the slowing as they want
to see yet, not necessarily in terms of growth, but
(04:02):
in terms of the job market. But what they want
is to is to get um sort of less pressure
on prices by reducing sort of the demand out there
that people have for things. And they think they're they're
being successful, but they're going to keep pushing really hard
because they want financial markets and and people um to
believe that the FETE is going to reduce inflation so
(04:25):
so that we don't get in this spiral where people
expect prices to be higher and so they demand higher
wages and that just speeds, you know, becomes self self
defeating basically. Um So, But to back up to what
you just think, I think it's really important. I think
that everybody feels like the economy is in a not
great place right now. It's not just the or whatever.
(04:46):
The various polls shows slightly different numbers, but it's like
a majority of Americans think we're in recession. It's consumer
competences is in the tank. Um. People have very low
approval leadings of the President of the economy right now.
People just feel like it's lousy. And that's despite the
fact that the uneplant rate is three point six percent
and and we're still creating hundreds of thousands of jobs
a month. So um, I think that what the FETE
(05:09):
is trying to do is attack the thing that is
making people feel most loudly, which is inflation. And it's
not worrying so much about these economic growth numbers we've
seen so far, um, especially because unemployment so low. Jim
Tankers leave The New York Times is on the line.
Excuse me, Jim, I'm just getting over COVID. Perhaps you've
heard about it. It's a disease that allegedly came from
(05:31):
Chinese bats. Anyway, UM, into all of this difficult to
comprehend economic mix comes yet another factor in this new
plan that the Senate seems to be ready to pass,
a giant new spending proposal dealing with climate to energy,
non related stuff, all sorts of stuff. What's your reaction
(05:52):
to that. I know you're part of the team writing
about the brand new deal. I boy, I have been
covering this deal for what feels like half of my
adult life now, as as it goes through various iterations
in the Senate. You know, it was it started off
as a proposal from the President that the Democrats then
put into budget language, and then it it rose and
(06:15):
fell and rose and fell, and at this point, I'm
you know, I'll believe that it's actually real when the
President has signed it into law. However, what they announced
yesterday is definitely a much bigger deal. UM. For the
Democratic agenda than what it appeared they had on the
table just a few days ago. Um. The big components
are a prescription drug price reductions for for medicare, which
(06:37):
is something that they were probably going to do anyway. Um.
But then um, a whole bunch of energy spending and
tax credit. Essentially, it's mostly tax cuts um meant to
transition the country to like lower emission sources of energy,
both both for cars and for electricity. And then some
tax increases and corporations basically that that offset that and
(06:58):
and pay down the federal budget. Epicite. Um all And
I've been talking all morning to economists, as one does,
about what it might do for inflation, and the general
consensus is maybe it has a little bit of a
of a of a positive effect, but which I mean
bringing down prices, especially over the medium terms. Wait, wait,
wait a second, I just want to make sure I
(07:20):
understand that the bill that is named an anti inflation bill.
You talked to a bunch of economists and they said
maybe it has a little bit Yeah, no, the no.
You know economists, most economists are pretty uh, pretty nuanced folks,
as you guys have been noting throughout this conversation. Um,
and so that they have some forecasts. But yeah, nope,
(07:41):
I've talked to us said this is going to dramatically
cut inflation. And I don't think there's any way you
could expect that that would be the case. It's just
not enough money. But it's but there there are a
lot of economists who think, um that on the margins
it will be helpful. And then in particular areas like
like drug costs for for seniors who are on Medicare, Uh,
(08:04):
it could be you know, especially impactful. But it's uh
for something called the Inflation Production Act. Uh, it is
not a massive attack on inflation. Um. And you know,
no matter what anybody does politically says about it, it's
sort of the economic consptants. Interesting. Well, I'm glad you
brought that up. That's that's interesting news. Jim tankers Lee
(08:26):
of The New York Times. Jim, I had forgotten you're
from beautiful McMinnville. Ore Again. I love the will Lambent value.
What a beautiful part of the country. Uh, it is.
It's great. It's uh it is. It is beautiful and
and spectacular and uh and I miss it all the time.
Nice folks, and some fine Peano noir for sipping. Jim.
Always great to talk to you. Thanks for the time,
Thank you so much for having me. It's always great. So, yeah,
(08:48):
that was good. And he's he's really good Jim. He
used to be with the Post. Now he's worth the
with the Times. And that's a New York Times economic
reporter saying he taught to a bunch of different economists.
I'm sure that he respects, or he wouldn't be calling
him about the big giant anti inflationary bill bull crap.
(09:09):
You can call it that, you can call it the
given Panda's Better Erections Bill if you want. It's spending
a ton of money on a bunch of stuff that
seems like they'd be a weird, misleading name. I don't
think there's a dollar in there for panda directions. Well,
if there were, they could name it that. That's my point.
The name is arbitrary political bull duty. But if the
(09:31):
New York Times economics guy talks to his friends and
they say, yeah, maybe a little, I mean, come here
on the edges,
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