Mack and Steve discuss if they find election poll results highly favorable, favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, unfavorable, or highly unfavorable.
References
A straw poll, or vote, according to Merriam-Webster:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/straw%20vote
Fox News may not have handled coverage of the 2012 election as well as they could have:
Folkenflik, David. “Media Circus: Fox Struggles With Obama’s Win?” November 7, 2012. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2012/11/07/164576251/media-circus-fox-struggles-with-obamas-win
How much did Obama win by?
National Archives. “2021 Electoral College Results.” Last reviewed: June 26, 2024. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2012
Iowa likes its straw poll, even if Mack does not:
Pate, Paul D. “Iowa Secretary of State Shares Final Results of Iowa State Fair Presidential Straw Poll.” August 21, 2023. Iowa.gov. https://sos.iowa.gov/news/2023_08_21.html
How can you tell if a poll is scientific?
Bloustein Center for Survey Research. “Assessing Poll Validity.” Rutgers.edu. https://bcsr.rutgers.edu/assessing-poll-validity/
Learn about a random sample:
Hayes, Adam. “Simple Random Sampling: 6 Basic Steps With Examples.” Updated: August 14, 2024. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/simple-random-sample.asp
The popular vote doesn’t decide the president because we have the electoral college:
USA.gov. “Electoral College.” Updated: August 22, 2024. https://www.usa.gov/electoral-college
Here are the polling groups Mack listed:
Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/
Gallop https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx
The Harris Poll https://theharrispoll.com/
Quinnipiac University https://poll.qu.edu/
Some context for the Defense Department paying $400 for a hammer in the 80s:
Freedberg, Jr., Sydney J. “The myth of the $600 hammer.” December 7, 1998. Government Executive. https://www.govexec.com/federal-news/1998/12/the-myth-of-the-600-hammer/5271/
Learn about margin of error:
Mercer, Andrew. “5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls.” September 8, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/
Read about how polls incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election:
Mercer, Andrew; Deane, Claudia; and McGeeney, Kyley. “Why 2016 election polls missed their mark.” November 9, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/
Why it’s not going to be Biden:
Miller, Zeke; Long, Colleen; and Superville, Darlene. “Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod.” July 21, 2024. AP News.
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