Yields should fall with a more dovish Fed but other levers needed to boost housing

10Y yields should fall if Fed more dovish than expected

Leading up to Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the market has priced in a high likelihood of a 25bp cut at the September FOMC meeting. The prospect of rate cuts has helped to lift homebuilding stocks and the group is up 16% since the end of June. But the 10Y Treasury yield is more relevant for homebuyers taking out fixed-rate or even adjustable-rate mortgages. So a key question is how Fed cuts, which should come--it's just a question of when--may impact long rates. And if rate cuts do result in lower 10Y Treasury yields, what does it mean for affordability. Mark Cabana believes that a very dovish Fed, even amidst a backdrop of higher than desired inflation, could still manage to push long rates lower. Rafe Jadrosich talks about affordability and regional housing dynamics, given that supply is above 2019 levels in Florida and Texas but well below levels from six years ago in the Northeast and Midwest.

 

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