Episode Transcript
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Laura (00:10):
Hello and welcome to the
Conflict Tipping podcast mediate.com,
the podcast that explores socialconflict and what we can do about it.
I'm your host, Laura May,and today I have with me Dr.
Aded Ader Lem.
A political and social psychologist basedat the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
He is a postdoctoral fellow atthe Truman Research Institute
(00:33):
for the Advancement of Peace.
He's a senior research associate atPsychology of Intergroup Conflict and
Resolution Lab, and he specializesin the beliefs and perceptions of
people mired in protracted conflicts.
Welcome and only.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (00:47):
Hi.
Hi, Laura.
Great to be here.
Laura (00:50):
I'm very excited to have you
here because you sent me a couple
of chapters of your forthcoming bookand now I wanna know everything about
Hope in the intractable conflict.
So prepare yourself,
, Oded Adomi Leshemi: it'll be a pleasure.
Thanks for inviting
I, I hope so.
So look, First things first.
What led you to study Hope specifically inwhat often seems like hopeless contexts?
Oded Adomi Leshemi (01:13):
So the intractable
conflict in Israel Palestine
has been going on for decades.
, generations of Israelis are, andPalestinians are involved in
this very intense conflict.
And they, they were also attemptsto, to solve the conflict
that, now that they have been.
Futile.
So you could say, Okay, thisis a hopeless situation.
(01:33):
And in many ways, just becauseof this is really an a, a very
good place to study hope when it.
Almost absent, and it iswhen it's most challenged.
And one of the things that we willprobably talk about it a bit later on,
but hope has actually two dimensions.
So hope when we want to conceptualize andactually measure hope, we need to look at.
(01:58):
The two dimensions that,that comprise hope.
One of them is the levelsof desires for something.
So the more I want and desire and aspirefor something, the more I hope for it.
And the second dimension ismy expectations that this
desire will be fulfilled.
So my assessment of the feasibility. The goal that I want to attain and
(02:19):
very interesting in intractableconflicts like in other, severe social
situations that desires for peaceand conciliations are very high.
So one of that dimensionis actually extremely high.
People desire and aspire to getout of this conflictual situation
and into conflict transformationand resolution, but the expectation
(02:41):
dimension is very low, right?
And studying hope when thedesires for something are so high.
But the belief in thefeasibility so low is really an
interesting place to study hope.
One could think maybe perhaps abouta people that have severe illness.
, right?
They have really severe illness.
They're at the hospital and theirsituation is not getting better.
(03:05):
They aspire and their desire forlife and to get out of the pain.
Ev an illness might be extremely high.
, but perhaps their expectations thatthis could be fulfilled is low.
And then, studying hope andunderstanding hope in these circumstances
really is really intriguing.
And also the behavioral.
Of this hope.
So what does it mean in termsof how people behave when they
(03:27):
want something so badly, but theythink it is impossible to achieve?
I don't know if it answered,if it answers your question,
. Laura: I feel like you've glad that
my question, but you've taken me to
a very interesting place nonetheless.
You mentioned this idea of anintractable conflict because you
study particularly hope in intractableconflict, so what actually is an
intractable conflict for those who may
(03:49):
not know?
Yeah so there are different definitionsof intractable conflicts and people in
political science in IR also call itprotracted conflicts, enduring rivalries
are all sorts of terms that thesedescribe these ongoing conflicts that
actually, they last several generationsand their protracted of the conflicts.
(04:11):
Exactly one of the most important.
Features of these types of conflict,because usually what happens,
like any conflict, there is somecompetition over resources, right?
Could be land, it could be politicalpower, it could be something else.
But then societies, when they arecompeting, for this resources and when
the conflict becomes violent and theyhave to sacrifice their lives and kill
(04:34):
others, they need to form a very rigid.
And expansive social psychologicalinfrastructure to enable them
to keep on, the conflict going.
So if you are.
Competing over resources.
You have to have a very goodexplanation that you are right
and the other side is wrong.
(04:55):
And you have to have, you needto be determined in your fight.
So people and societies actuallycreate these social psychological
beliefs and emotions and attitudesand perceptions about the conflict.
. And then after a while, theybecome actually the anchor of the.
So in many ways, the theory behindthis says that the competition
(05:18):
or the main problem is notthe resource anymore, right?
It's not about where the borders would be.
It's about these very detrimentaland destructive beliefs, attitudes,
perceptions that these societieshave, and that is actually the
kind of the center of the problem.
(05:39):
And therefore, conflict resolutionexperts need to focus on these issues
rather than the more material issues.
And this is true for conflict.
The conflict in Israel Palestine, Cyprusis also a very intractable conflict,
the conflict between the Greek and theTurkey secrets on the island of Cypress.
But, you could also think about,A dispute between neighbor.
(06:03):
That has been going on for so long.
It started, because I don't know thatneighbor thought the fence should
be here and the other No but, andthey started to fight about that.
But during the process, they neededto establish some justification, Very
strong justification for, the conflict.
And it's the way that it 10 intensifies.
And so it doesn't really matter anymore.
(06:25):
The fence doesn't really matter anymore.
I distrust that neighbor.
He's always lying.
He's aggressive.
We wanted to, we proposedso many ways to solve it.
He always denied them.
Ta, tata.
Both sides of course, believein these things, of course.
And so really when you look at thesekind of very deeply rooted disputes
that persist for a long time.
(06:47):
This is like their intractability, right?
And the question is, of course,yeah, could we actually solve
these intractable conflicts?
And there are some ways that,that this could be done, but
it's of course very difficult.
Laura (06:58):
Of course, because you have
these very sort of strong conflict
narratives or conflict storiesthat you need to psychologically
Oded Adomi Leshemi (07:04):
untangle, right?
Yeah.
And I will say, and I willsay there are two things here.
First of all societies that areinvolved in these conflict and really
sacrifice, sacrifice their lives andare prepared to kill and be killed,
they really need to justify, but theyalso need to explain war is a chaotic.
Circumstance.
War is chaos, right?
(07:26):
, So we need some explanation.
Who's the good guy?
Who's the bad guy?
And, what is the story, how it allbegan, how it's going to, evolve.
And the, these explanationsreally help cope, it's a coping
me mechanism for societies.
And by the way, speaking of one ofthese the, one of the most fundamental
beliefs in intractable conflictsusually held by the both parties is
(07:52):
that a conflict is inherently irres.
. So people that are involved in theselong standing disputes believe that
the conflict will never be resolved.
Now, first of all, they have it's alsobased on what they see around them, right?
So it's not totally detached from reality.
The conflict has been goingon for so long, and people
project that into the future.
(08:13):
But as we know, if you are so skepticalabout something and pessimistic about the
chances for something, you will never.
Try to engage in solving it, right?
It's never going to be solved.
Why should I startlistening to the other side?
Why should I think about compromiseif the conflict will never end?
(08:33):
And so that in many ways becomes aself-fulfilling prophecy because you
think that the conflict will never end.
You don't do anything about that.
The conflict only persists orescalates, and that kind of proves
that the conflict will never end.
So that is so detrimentaland so destructive.
Disbelief that the conflictis inherently a resolver.
(08:54):
And this is what I study.
Laura (08:55):
Just now you've mentioned that.
The conflict is not completelydetached from reality.
There's something they can see asa sort of ongoing proof or evidence
that there is a conflict there.
We have also mentioned thatit's not about the fence anymore
with bad neighbors, right?
So should I understand then thatthis sort of evidence of ongoing bad
(09:16):
relations of ongoing conflicts canactually be the relationship itself.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (09:21):
Yes.
It is.
So when we see for, as we speak,unfortunately as we speak, there
is tension and violence between theJordan and the Mediterranean Sea.
So in the holy land, which Israelisand Palestinians living, and when
Israelis see hostile move, Orhostile actions of the Palestinians.
(09:42):
They don't they of course,they have no empathy for that.
And they say, Okay, you see thesepeople, they have no value for life.
They are always aggressive.
They are only, they onlyuse violence, et cetera.
But Palestinians, when theylook at actions of the Israelis,
they see exactly the same thing.
And they explain everything.
There is a famous, what we call theFundamental attribution error when
(10:04):
we attribute, negative actions ofthe other people as their character.
There are always like that.
There have been violent, the violenceis in their culture, et cetera.
And we attribute, The circumstancesto our negative action.
So these kind of things, includingattribution, era, et cetera, are really
what people see all the time and whatpeople experience and see all the time.
(10:27):
So indeed, it's not only about,whether border is, it's about how
the adversary behaves it's character.
Our character, which is of course, peace.
We're the best.
Yeah, we're the best.
We're peace seeking.
, right?
When we use force, it'sonly for retaliation.
And of course, in a long fight, it'salways retaliation, It's always revenge.
(10:49):
So this really becomes a problem.
What I have to say is that whatwe know that in intractable
conflicts, people have very rigid.
Beliefs and perceptions aboutthe adversary, beliefs about
themselves, but also beliefsabout the conflict as an entity.
, right?
So the conflict is like an entity initself and one of these beliefs that the
conflict would never be resolved, right?
(11:12):
. So what I focus on is less onpeople's perceptions of the out
group or their in group, but of thecharacter and nature of the conflict.
Itself as an entity or as a subject ofevaluation and then trying to change that.
It's difficult and luckily meand other colleagues, we are both
(11:34):
studying it, but we are also doingexperimental work on changing this.
So challenging this perception ofintractability and irreconcilably using
these hope inducing interventions.
So if we have time, I could talk about.
Also
Laura (11:50):
me.
Believe me, it's gonna be on my list.
So as you were talking just now aboutthese persistent images of the other and
how we're always the good people, right?
Like where we would never do anything bad.
I just had this image.
I lived for a little while inRussia and I was studying Russian.
And I remember one day in classthe Russian teacher said to
(12:10):
me, cuz we're teaching, we werelearning a very interesting
version of history in this class.
Might I add?
And so she said to this classhow Russia had never attacked
a country ever in its history.
It never would.
It was a very peaceful country abouthow, sometimes people just attacked it
and they were defending themselves andjust obviously, unhinged , perhaps our
perceptions to the rest of the world.
(12:31):
But, she was almost in, in tears asshe was saying this because she was so
emotionally committed to this idea andwhat you referred to as this social
psychological infrastructure, right?
Because our beliefs and maybe ourself-esteem and our vision of ourselves
and the people around us become verystrongly entangled with these ideas of
good and bad and heroes and villains and
Oded Adomi Leshemi (12:51):
stories.
Exactly.
Yeah.
It's very hard for people certainlygroups to take responsibility for
their, for their problematic actions.
And so there is a reallyserious, very sophisticated
system of justifications, right?
Even if we do attack, it is only.
For defense, right?
(13:11):
Defending our interests or we werethreatened and if we would not
attack, they would attack us andthen, we would perish, et cetera.
So everything is really framed asa defense in another thing that we
also need to say about the IsraeliPalestinian conflict, that it is also a.
Asymmetrical conflict.
(13:31):
. So the conflict betweenIsrael and the Palestinians.
Israel has superior military strength,economic strength, diplomatic strength.
Israel is a state, and I recognize, state.
The Palestinians are statelessand controlled, actually, and
occupied by, by Israeli military.
So this is also something that weneed to look into because not only
(13:54):
intractable conflicts are alsoasymmetrical, so there's like another
component here that should be considered.
Absolutely.
Laura (14:01):
And so just we move on
to talk about hope a little bit.
I'm just wondering if there's a similaritybetween what we've described here
with these very violent, very apparentconflicts and conflicts, for example,
between political parties and supportersof political parties, I think is most
clearly and infamously captured at leastin the western media in the US right?
Sort of Democrats versus Republicans andthe emotional connection to these parties.
(14:26):
Do they operate in similar waysas far as these stories and
the ongoing nature of conflict?
Oded Adomi Leshemi:
That's a good question. (14:33):
undefined
And also, history, manytimes it does what it wants.
We could predict, wecould analyze, et cetera.
And then history does whatever it wants.
We know from history, of course, fromglobal history, in past history that
no society is immune to, even very, Itviolent, social and political phenomenon.
(14:59):
, our hopes of course is that societies,certainly democratic societies know
to navigate, differences in opinionsin a way that is constructive.
, the disagreements in many ways.
Like the raw material for.
If it, if they are like
Laura (15:17):
practice almost, you've got these
sort of two pauses coming together.
They meet, they create conflict andthen something's born out of it.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (15:24):
Exactly.
Mediators see it all the time.
Mediators, when successful mediators,when they work with two rival parties,
sometimes at the end a solutionbenefits both parties and actually is
a, one step is a development and we wantto see d democracy like that, right?
, and then building itself into a morethan a smarter kinder affluent place.
(15:46):
But it could also, when it'snot managed correctly, of course
it could also deteriorate.
And what you.
I think the, again, I'm prophesyinghere, so I might it's not but
what I'm saying is that it coulddeteriorate, into violence.
And then of course, people evenbecome more rigid, more stubborn,
(16:07):
more hostile but it could alsogo into a more constructive way.
We, Yeah.
But
Laura (16:12):
just to be clear though,
the violence is not a necessary
stage to create a better outcome.
. Oded Adomi Leshemi: Oh of course.
Not even, I will say the opposite.
Yep.
It, violence is, means thatyou, that the, that dispute was
managed destructively, right?
. . If the vi, if violence comes out, itmeans that there is a failure in, in, in
(16:35):
managing and controlling the issues that,that they were in this route, for sure.
, we want to avoid that as much as possible.
Yeah.
Great.
It's always worth saying , but you peoplewho pointed the podcast saying they've
said they conflict lead to creation,let's all start punching each other,
Oded Adomi Leshemi (16:49):
but no.
Yeah.
I am sure that, I am sure thatthe mediators and experts in,
alternative dispute resolutionwill agree that disagree.
Right When they are managed correctly,they are actually, they could build
people, they could build relationships,they could build societies.
This is a democracy.
This is democracy.
Yeah.
Correctly managing disputes for sure.
Laura (17:12):
But now turning to hope,
you mentioned it a little bit
already about what hope is, butperhaps you could explain it cause
I understand it can be understooddifferently in different contexts.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (17:22):
So very interestingly,
in many languages, Hope is used to
signify two things that are close,but they're actually quite distinct.
The first, sometimes Hope is used tosignify how much we want something.
We say, I hope it it'll be nice tomorrow.
I hope this email finds you well.
We use hope to signify ourdesires and aspirations.
(17:44):
And it makes sense.
The more we want something,the more we hope for it.
. So it certainly makes sense and,but sometimes we use it to signify
our expectations for something.
So you could say, now that nowthat the surgery went well, I hope
my hopes are higher for recovery.
And here you actually express yourexpectations or like your assessment.
(18:05):
Of the chances to, to attainthis goal of recovery.
So sometimes it's used as awish and sometimes it's used an
expectation and sometimes, andmost of the time it's a mix, right?
And this is true in many languages.
I'm
Laura (18:20):
thinking about Spanish cuz when
you're an English speaker taught Spanish,
you're told this one word esp perra meansto wish to hope for something, but also
to wait for And I was like I like this.
I've got a strong expectation.
The bus is gonna come.
All my hopes are bound up in its
Oded Adomi Leshemi (18:33):
arrival.
Yeah.
And this is true for in many languages and. So desires and expectations are distinct,
but actually they're really tied togethercause sometimes I would rather not want
something I think is really impossible.
So here because the expectationdimension is low I decrease.
The wish and dimension or thedesire dimension, say, I can never
Laura (18:56):
get it, so I won't
bother hoping for it.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (18:59):
I don't think I'm
gonna, so I don't bother wishing for it.
Laura (19:02):
Okay.
All right.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (19:02):
Okay.
Whew.
. You see the hope is it'stricky, but sometimes.
Also when you really want something, youtend to boost your expectations, right?
, you really desire something.
You want something so badly assess.
It's the likelihood of getting it ashigher just because you want it, right?
So there is a connectionbetween these two dimensions.
(19:23):
Even though that when we look, forexample when look at the correlations
between them, they're significant,but they're not very strong.
They are between.
0.1 and 0.3, which is a low to mediumcorrelation between these two dimensions.
So they are distinct, but theyhave some connection and the
word hope is so confusing.
(19:45):
So I could say I reallyhope there will be peace.
But I don't have any hope.
There will be peace, right?
, The first one I meant it as.
I really wish and desire peace.
I really hope there will bepeace, but I don't have any hope.
I don't have anyexpectations or assessment.
The assessment of feasibility is so low.
So hope is so tricky and notonly in terms of the everyday
(20:10):
use and the, just semantics.
It's actually embeddedin the idea of hope.
And if we want to tease themapart, we actually have to do it.
Intent.
So when I study Hope, and I have one ofthe bigger projects that I initiated and
direct, it's called the Hope Map Project.
, the Hope Map Project is a global studiesproject that measures the hope for peace
(20:32):
in conflict zones around the world.
Amazing.
And so I, I have large scaled surveysand other studies that measure hope
for peace in all sorts of conflicts.
But I don't actually usethe word hope in the survey.
Because I don't know if the participant istalking about her wishes or expectations.
I actually ask it separately.
(20:53):
So for example, if we're talking about,I don't know, hope for Justice, I will
ask someone how much they wish it.
Yeah.
So got desire, dimension, and couple ofquestions later I will ask, what is her
assessment of the visibility of justice?
So this is the expectation.
Interesting.
Yeah.
And then what you do is just replacethat on a bi dimensional plane.
(21:17):
So X and Y almost.
Exactly.
You have people with highwishes, but low expectations.
People with, some people have both.
Both of them are high.
Some people, both of them are low.
So you really, it's mappedon a bi dimensional scale.
And by the way, when you look at hopelike that, it also shows hopes, opposites.
(21:39):
So what is the ho opposite of.
I'm asking you, Laura,what's the opposite rule?
Oh,
Laura (21:44):
I would say worry to
have a worry or maybe a fear.
Cuz I guess, you fear cuz you've got theexpectation that it might happen, but
also that you're like physically afraidof it, so you don't desire it either,
Oded Adomi Leshemi (22:03):
right?
So that hope has two opposite.
One is fear.
One is fear.
Exactly like you said.
When we think that the expectationlevel is low, we think that
something is going to happen, right?
And the more we think it thisbad or malign thing is going
to happen, the more we fear it.
But the desire is in the negative, right?
And the more we don't want it, the more wefear it, It's something bad going happen.
(22:25):
So fear and threat is one opposite,but the other opposite is, Despair
is when the desire is high, butthe expectation is in the negative.
I really want something badly.
Yes, but I think it is impossible.
, So when you put it on these, like thereare two dimensions, you also see Yeah.
The opposites are exposed.
Laura (22:46):
Yeah.
It's really interesting and I wasjust wondering, do they ever collapse
together fear and despair in thesame way that sort of hope collapses?
Oded Adomi Leshemi (22:54):
Not necessarily.
I'm not an expert in fear.
I have one.
I have one one study that looksat perceptions of threat and fear
of Israelis and Palestinians.
, and how that connects to their.
Wishes and expectations for things . Butyeah, it's something that should,
I should look more into the nextbook is gonna be lot or further
Laura (23:14):
study extra research
needed, give us the funding.
Great.
No, that's so interesting.
And so then when it comes to a conflictwe've never established what hope is.
And now you've quizzed me on the spot.
Who's the most hopeful?
In conflict?
Is it winners, losers?
Who's hoping, who's not hoping?
Oded Adomi Leshemi (23:32):
Yeah,
that's a great question.
And when you look at hopeat these two dimensions, it
also clarifies these things.
So first of all, we could, ifwe simply look at demographics,
we see both in Israel and in.
The Palestinian Territories inthe West Bank, in the Gaza Strip.
So I have a study that is runningongoing study that is running both
(23:54):
in Israel and in the West Bankand in the Gaza Strip, but also
in Cys, in North, in South and Cy.
We see, for example, that the older.
Are both, they are more hopeful aboutthe chances of peace, the age is.
Is a predictor of people'shope under two dimensions.
They want peace more and theythink it is more possible.
(24:16):
So the mo, the older people are.
In Cypress and in Israel Palestine, themore they think that the piece is possible
and the more they desire, Women are morehopeful than men on the two dimensions.
. But for example, one of thereally interesting finding is
the connection between hope andpeople acceptance of uncertainty.
(24:37):
So we know that people differ in how much.
Accept uncertainty as somesomething in life, right?
Yeah.
Usually people we wantto avoid uncertainty.
We want.
Laura (24:49):
So wait, a quick clarification.
So with uncertainty, do you meanyou don't know what's gonna happen
or do you mean uncertainty in termsof ambiguity about you don't really
know where you are right now?
Oded Adomi Leshemi (24:59):
No I'm
saying Okay so I'll clarify.
It's a good question.
So acceptance of uncertainty isthe level of ease that people
accept uncertainty as something.
In life, some people are morecomfortable with the fact that the
future is uncertain and some peoplehave more problems with it, right?
Usually people don't likeuncertainty in general, right?
(25:20):
And they want to the future to bepredictable and certain, but people
differ on the levels of ease and how muchthey are comfortable with uncertainty.
And what we see is that the more peopleare in, intractable conflict, the more
people are at ease with uncertainty.
The more they desire peace orthe hope, the desire dimension
(25:42):
of hope for peace is higher.
And that could be easilyexplained because.
People that are uncomfortablewith uncertainty and they want
something very predictable, theywant to keep the conflict there.
Cause the conflict, No it's painful andit has prices, but it's predictable.
So the enemy, Tragically, peoplethat are, have mired for so many,
(26:04):
decades and generations in conflict.
For them, the conflict is predictable.
We know how it looks like you know it.
It's very predictable.
But people that are more at ease withuncertainty, they allow themselves
to desire and aspire for this unknownthing that is called peace, right?
Peace is an unknown for Israel,unfortunately, for Israelis and Palestine.
Mutual piece is unknown, right?
(26:25):
. So acceptance of uncertainty predicts thewish dimension or the desire dimension
of hope, but not the expectation.
It doesn't have any influence in that.
Laura (26:36):
How curious, and I'm also
really surprised that you mentioned
that sort of being older is associatedwith, greater hope in both dimensions,
cuz I would assume you'd be more cy.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (26:46):
They have been,
they've been here for so long.
They have seen it.
The older you are, the wiser you are.
. But it has not, in my case thiscould be there actually, there is
a Paper now which is under review.
, it's not out there yet.
By calling of mine, Berice Ville.
And I'm and I'm collaborating with her.
And there she really shows that when youput, so there's a really cool experiment
(27:12):
that she did where students put a VRkind of glasses and saw themselves.
Older.
Saw themselves as, in the VR experience,saw themselves as old persons.
. And then another group sawthemselves as it put VR glasses
and saw themselves as they are now.
. And then sometime latershe asked people questions.
(27:33):
These are were Jewish Israelistudents, and she asked them
what is the possibility of peace?
, and how much it desired.
And we.
That the people that saw themselvesas older people suddenly assess the
possibility of peace and the desiretheir desires for piece work was higher.
That's wild.
That's wild.
Yeah.
(27:54):
So what that means So there areseveral explanations for that.
Sometimes when people are atthe older stage, they have a
broader perspective of life.
They put things in proportion.
And then when they look at, peace,even though they're part and involved,
highly involved in the conflict,they see it as something that's
more desirable and more feasible.
(28:15):
Young generation also that is influencedby the rhetoric, very strongly influenced
by the rhetoric of leaders and themedia, will have more hostile attitudes,
more skeptical attitudes, many times.
Yeah, so this is really I agree.
This is really fascinating.
And we talked about age, we talked aboutgender and acceptance of uncertainty, and
I could go on four hours in terms of what,
Laura (28:37):
Yeah.
Oh my God.
But this is actually really curiousto me, and I, it sounds like this
would be really interesting to do indifferent cultural contexts as well.
Because certainly, when we looked at,sorry, I always talk about Brexit.
It was a case study of mine, but therewas this big discourse of, oh yeah,
it's all the old people who are messingwith us and like voting in this way and
(28:59):
voting for comfort and what have you.
And I really wonder, cause I meanyou've mentioned this is all students
in Israel that have put this on and seenthemselves as old and based on, I guess
their social expectation of what an oldperson would do, behave differently.
And I really wonder whetherthere'd be that same.
Social expectation about age and howyou would behave in different cultural
Oded Adomi Leshemi (29:21):
contexts.
More research needed, future research.
Yeah, I agree.
This is something that shouldbe, like, looking at the cultural
aspects of age is really interesting.
, will say that in terms of hopeand culture, that's another really
interesting issue and somethingthat I elaborate on in my new book.
(29:42):
So Western cultures, Yes.
Really value hope.
One should.
Hopeful one should aspire forthe impossible and believe that
everything is possible, right?
So hope is highly valuedand encouraged, right?
Socially encouraged.
It's supposed to be verygood to be optimistic.
It's supposed to be good, to be to,to aspire and have high desires, and
(30:07):
also to believe in the possibilityof attaining these desires and goals.
But not all culturesare like that, actually.
. And many cultures really encourage a muchmore modest and humble look at the future.
So one should aspire, but not too much.
And one should expect the goodthings in life, but not too much.
(30:27):
It's it's much more contained and it'sa, I think it's a valuable lesson to, to
learn because hope has also disadvantage.
So what are
Laura (30:36):
they?
? Yeah.
What are the disadvantages?
Should we all become hopeless?
Is that what you're telling me?
Oded Adomi Leshemi (30:41):
No.
What I'm saying is that, eh, thefact that we automatically think
that hope is something good, right?
And we don't even question what anddon't even look at the dangers of hope.
Is that we should be reallylooking into that as well.
And certainly in intractableconflicts or in places, like I told
(31:04):
said before, like in severe illness.
Cause one of the things thatwe, that could happen, there
are several things could happen.
First of all, if you reallyhope and the goal is not a
thing , then our frustration.
Would be even higher.
, right?
Or like we were dashed hope andthen you become paralyzed cuz
(31:26):
you believed in the ability youwere, And then this didn't happen.
And in intractable conflictsit's many ways like that.
There had been several attemptsfor negotiations between the AIDS
Israelis and Palestinians over the.
20, almost 30 years now,and they didn't materialize.
And, people are nowalmost more frustrated.
So that's one of the kind of the dangers.
(31:46):
And the other is that you portray, Sobecause you desire something and you
also think it is possible, you portrayan unrealistic, analysis of reality.
, you portray you it.
Like being naive.
. That's another problem with hope.
And one of the things that Itry to Crystallizing the book
(32:08):
is like, what is the best hope?
What is the sweet spot?
Yeah.
Of hope where it is both, it's still,people need to maintain because being
skeptical and being hopeless certainly inconflicts is detrimental and destructive.
, but also we should be avoid being.
And protect ourselves also, if we wantto go the long run and achieve peace
in Israel Palestine, for example.
(32:30):
And what I describe as prudent hope.
Prudent people that, that havehope, but are prudent hopes are
very much, embedded in reality.
They don't have any naive visions aboutthe reality or about the future, right?
But they still, but theirhope is unquestionable.
Unquestionable, certainlyon the desire dimens.
(32:53):
How that means that onthe desire dimension.
Yeah.
So and One of the thing, one of the kindof the thinkers and the philosophers
that inspired me to write about prudenthope and its advantages is VAs deve.
VAs hav was the he was a playwrightin the 1960s in the Cze vacuum.
And became a political figurebecause he opposed the Russian and
(33:15):
Communist influence during that time.
, and he talked a lot about.
And he said, My hope is notfueled or driven by my belief
that freedom is possible.
, cho, Costo, vanian.
Freedom is possible.
It's not by that.
, it's by my desires and total commitment.
My, the levels of wishes anddesires and aspirations are
so high and so unquestionable.
(33:38):
That is the driver.
Of what I do.
And he became an activist.
He spent some time in the communistprisons and later became the first,
elected president of Free Czechoslovakiaand later the Czech Republic.
So it's me, but also other thinkersthat think that hope should be.
Looked at a very, we need tobe very precise with our hope.
(33:59):
And not just, proto portray some verypink picture of reality but to maintain
it mainly on the desire dimension.
Yeah,
Laura (34:08):
it's so interesting.
Yeah.
Because you mentioned earlier how thissort of assumption in various Western
societies that hope is a good thing.
And when I hear this idea of prudent hope,it sounds so devoid of romance to me.
Cuz you don't have that sort oflike almost a quest to attain
this Nile ni upon impossible goal.
But it sounds very practic.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (34:30):
It
is in many ways exactly.
You, I think you phrased it very well.
It's de romanticizing hope.
Hope is essential, people andthinkers and others rewrote and I to
certainly agree about the fact thathope is an ex existential human need.
We need hope.
It's something like we needto eat and we need to drink.
We need hope.
We need to believe that the future, eh,should be better and could be better.
(34:54):
This is really something that ispart of the human life in many ways.
There is also some evolution.
Psychologists that deal with the evolutionthat say that the hope is one of the
ingredients that made, humans flourishand develop this kind of over assessment
that we could do and accomplish things.
And so certainly hope is really needed.
(35:14):
It has huge advantages.
Many empirical studies show thatpeople that are more hopeful and
more optimistic, perform betteron all sorts of tasks and others.
There is actually a study about themore optimistic people and hopeful
people, their life expectancy is higher.
But also we need to be.
Beware of the pitfalls of hope.
(35:35):
We don't want to be naive.
We want, we don't want to go, beled astray, just because we hope for
something, we need to be containing like
Laura (35:44):
people who went to manifestation,
and they're like, Oh if I put this
on my vision board, it will happen.
Because yeah, there's the idea ofif I can think it, it will happen.
And I was actually listened toa podcast re I was actually the
co-owner of Brian's podcast and hewas talking with with someone else
about their very Catholic upbringingand this idea that, if you punished
yourself, you would deserve things.
And so it was almost this manifestationin a different way, you could sort.
(36:07):
Control the outcome because your desireis in one direction and therefore your
expectation will be in that direction.
It's just about whether there was acost to to reach that goal or not.
But what would youradvice be to someone then?
Cause you described thisidea of prudent hope.
How can we be prudently hopeful?
How do we actually manage that, Adam?
Does it differ between thedifferent activities we.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (36:28):
So
that's a good question.
I'm a researcher and a scholar of hope andconflict, but I'm also very much active
and involved and committed also to IsraeliPalestinian peace, and as someone that,
that is living here trying my best also tocontribute to practical issues that have
to do with conflict resolution in IsraelPalestine . And one of the kind of, there
(36:51):
is a chapter in that one, in in the book,a chapter that was based on a research
led by one of my students Shane Mo.
And she interviewed Israel inPalestinian Peace activists.
, and we wanted to knowwhere does their hope lie?
Cause in one way they should be right.
The most hopeful ones, they areworking for peace in Israel Palestine.
(37:12):
Surely their hope is their engine.
Their expectations and desiresand expectations are their
drivers of what they do, right?
If they didn't believe that peace ispossible, why should they, they wouldn't
engage in this very taxing and demandingpeace building work in Israel Palestine.
But maybe another assumption, oppositeas assumption they should be hopeless,
the most hopeless people becausethey're working for something and
(37:34):
it's not being achieved in many ways.
Yeah.
The conflict is deteriorating andwhat we saw is that their expectations
for peace, or, their belief in thepossibility of peace is not necessarily.
It's not that they have a profoundand a belief that peace in Israel
Palestine is possible, et cetera.
No.
It's their desires again, likevaha, like this prudent hope.
(37:57):
They are very much, they are very much.
Ingrained in the reality, theyknow exactly how hard it is.
So their expectations are not overthe roof, but their desires, meaning
their aspirations and commitment forthemselves, for the generations to come
is so unquestionable and so high andunquestionable that this is the driver.
(38:19):
Of their action.
Okay.
So if you ask me what is prudent hope?
Prudent hope is not giving up on thegoal, but also understanding that
its achievement could be challenged,could or challenging, could take time.
You need to be really and youneed, So this is also what the way
that you protect yourself from d.
(38:39):
And the, but the driving forceis this desire dimension and also
in statistical models when we pitexpectations versus wishes, right?
We see that wish is the more dominant.
Predictor of people's support forcompromise, people's willingness to
(39:04):
support peace building initiatives.
I'm talking about Israelis andPalestinian and the secrets as well.
The wish dimension is whatis a stronger predictor.
The expectation is also important, right?
It's also, but in, in most cases though,wish dimension is more important.
And this is also a something.
Human life and human nature, right?
(39:27):
In many ways, human evolution andcertainly social and political
evolution, is, was created becausethey desired something else.
Not necessarily, I don't know how manybelieved it's possible, but they desired
it so much and it was so importantfor them, so essential for them that
(39:47):
they, that society changed and Yeah.
And then that, and then it happens, right?
and then it happens.
Laura (39:54):
Beautifully put.
Beautifully put.
And so then, if this wish tomention is the perhaps more
important part, you mentioneddoing some types of interventions.
Have any of your interventionsactually helped people
increase that wish dimension?
How do they work?
What have you done?
Tell me about
Oded Adomi Leshemi (40:11):
the interventions.
I'm very curious.
So first of all, it's me andother colleagues that study hope.
What we're trying to do is find all sortsof ways to increase both dimensions, the
wish and the expectations, and then seeif that actually changes other aspects.
Other attitudes.
So for example, one study that Idid this was an experimental setup.
(40:32):
There was an online study and JewishIsraeli participants were asked to
answer all sorts of questions abouttheir attitudes concerning piece and the
Palestinians and, the conflict, et cetera.
But some of the people saw.
Like all of the participants,there was also a control group, but
all the participants saw a video.
Either a Palestinian or an Israeliguy saying that either there pieces
(40:56):
possible or pieces impossible.
So here it was the expectation damage.
And so they saw this video.
It looked like the person that talkedin the video was like a blogger, right?
So a video blogger talking abouthis outlook into the future.
And after that then, participantsanswered some questions and we say
(41:17):
to Buck a week later, Suddenly, likethey, they were also requested to,
to fill in some questionnaire, butsuddenly a pop-up window appeared
that looked like initiative ofa Palestinian Israeli peace ngo.
And it Hi.
We are the Israeli Palestiniansoccer team and we love soccer
(41:38):
and sports, and we play together.
And this way we alsolearn about each other.
And we were shortly listed bythe United Nation to participate
in this online campaign.
The more support we get from thegeneral public, the higher the chances
we will get funding from the UnitedNations, and we're competing against
other teams from other conflict zones.
Please support.
(41:59):
And of course the participants didn't knowthat it has to do with the survey or the
videos that they saw several like before.
And also it looked likea real initiative, right?
. So when they supported this initiative,they thought they were really
supporting Israeli Palestinian peacebuilding project, and the people
that saw the hopeful messages.
(42:21):
A week earlier tended to support thispeace building project more than you know
the others or more than the control group.
So we know that if we induce hope, itactually changes people's behaviors.
It's something very hardto do on a large scale.
But like our hope, , our wishes andexpectation is that these experiments
(42:41):
will turn into campaigns, right?
Hoping use campaigns that willbe distributed on a larger scale
to Israelis and Palestiniansand in other conflict zones.
Laura (42:51):
Amazing.
So almost creating a vision or likelittle steps towards hope, one at a time.
So that actually becomes apossibility in the real world and
brings civil together and converges.
Fabulous.
Fabulous.
And so your book, cause youwere kind enough to send me the
first few chapters of your book.
So Hope Against Conflictis the name and when does
Oded Adomi Leshemi (43:12):
that come out?
It's a Hope Amids
Laura (43:14):
Conflict Hope.
Amids Conflict.
Okay.
I'm sorry.
Forgive me please.
. Brilliant.
And I've gotta say, really enjoyedreading what you sent through.
It's beautifully written,it's very accessible.
You've structured it like an academicbook, but it's highly readable.
You've got beautiful terms of phrases.
I wrote one down here, which wasthat history does not always lean
(43:35):
in the direction of the hopeful.
And I was like, What abeautiful thing to say.
A little depressing, but quite beautiful.
And so I would really recommend peopleget their hands when it comes out.
I think it's.
Absolutely fascinating thework that you're doing.
And so then as a final question, for themediators and conflict resolvers and what
have you, listening today, do you have arecommendation for them when they're doing
(43:58):
their work with clients or with groups?
How can they build hope?
If they should as mediators.
Oded Adomi Leshemi (44:05):
Yeah,
they certainly should.
And, experience mediators, I'msure they know it, that right.
Skepticism and indifferencereally create an impasse.
So creating a sense of hope,both increasing the desires
to solve the conflict and.
(44:26):
Continuing this dispute, which ishurting the two sides, is something I
think that should be highly encouraged.
And also, the encouraging the beliefthat these things can be solved, right?
We also know, for example, frominternational conflicts, that very
highly intense conflict that, involvedmany casualties were eventually sold.
This could inspire mediators andpeople that deal with alternative
(44:50):
dispute resolution, to encouragehope among the disputes.
Fabulous.
Laura (44:56):
So thank you so much
again for joining today.
It's been really wonderful hearingabout what you've been working
on and that we can all have ahopeful future if, fingers crossed.
And so for those who are interestedin learning more about your
work, where can they find you?
Oded Adomi Leshemi (45:10):
First of all, I
hope that will, I hope I expect and , I
wish and expect that we'll have that,will post my contact information.
I really encourage people to contact mediscuss hope and conflict but also on
ResearchGate, Facebook, Twitter LinkedIn.
Everything is open in the book.
I think the book, hopefully thebook will come out spring of 2023.
Laura (45:32):
Fantastic.
So hope amidst conflict.
Excellent.
I'll be looking forwardto reading the full draft.
That is for sure.
So thank you so much again, and untilnext time, this is Laura May with a
Conflict Tipping podcast for media.com.