Dodged a Bullet

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby Levin and Laurie Kamhi discuss the recent, bipartisan passage of the Debt Ceiling under the leadership of Kevin McCarthy in the House.  With the Fed finally deciding to Pause, they say this may allow us to avoid a Recession, with the caveat Treasury will now need to sell a trillion dollars of new debt to fund current spending, which may lead to an increase in rates as well.  They also highlight the challenges faced by regional banks due to commercial loans coming due and the impact vacancies will have on Debtors ability to service their debt. Finally, they look back on a few of their more recent predictions, which have proven prescient.

 

TIMESTAMPS

01:25 The McCarthy Compromise

03:25 Pent up Demand

03:45 The Notion of Rolling Recessions 

05:50 Dispersion Among the Pundits

06:40 The PEG Ratio: Focus on Price to Earnings Growth

08:25 A Stock Picker's Market

09:25 Ahead of the Curve with Some of Their Biggest Predictions

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Stanley Druckenmiller says he'd be 'stunned' if a recession doesn't happen in 2023
• Contact Barnaby
• Contact Laurie