Let's Talk Money

October 1st, 2023

Episode Transcript

(00:22):
Good morning on this October first,which looks to be a gorgeous fall day.
Folks. You know I told youlast week, and you know,
get your sweaters out. The weather'scoming and it looks like Indian summer is
gonna be here this week. That'spretty nice. We deserve it, right
well. I can't thank you enoughon a Sunday morning, bright and early

(00:44):
to tune in. I can't everyweek, weekend, week out, whether
it's Saturday at ten or Sunday morningsat eight, I can't thank you enough
for tuning in. If I'm nothere, one of my really incredible colleagues
will be here. I know Iwon't be here next weekend, so you'll
have a couple dynamic personalities that willgive you as much information as I do.

(01:07):
We had a great show yesterday,a lot of questions. Hopefully today
I can answer your questions. Soif you have any questions, any questions
whatsoever, the phone lines are open. Zach Harris, my long term,
long time producer, is willing,ready and able to get you up on
the board so I can talk withyou. One eight hundred talk WGY one

(01:30):
eight hundred eight two five, fivenine four nine one eight hundred eight two
five fifty nine forty nine. Well, let me tell you, I am
glad Septembers behind us. Goodbye September, goodbye third quarter. Boy, the
first six months of the year,tell me they weren't spectacular, right.

(01:51):
You know, the NASTAC was upover forty percent. You had the SMP
up twenty percent. Man, ohman, we were kind of getting a
little giddy, weren't we. Absolutely, the markets don't go down forever.
And last year it was a perfectstorm that I talked about, and bonds
and stocks went down. It wasjust there was no place to hide,

(02:15):
no matter no matter how you wereinvested, you lost money last year,
come heck or high water. Youdid not make money last year. And
then October we bottomed out, justabout a year ago, now a year
almost a year, in a coupleof weeks, I think it was October
twelfth, to be exact, webottomed out. And wow, the markets

(02:35):
have come screaming back. And youknow, as I said, the first
six months of this year, themarkets were really, really, really good.
But you know, the third quarternot so good. You know,
if you look, you know,since since the bottom almost a year ago,
you know, the Heck, theQQQ is up almost almost approaching forty

(03:01):
percent. You know, NASTAC isup twenty percent. You know, the
growth index up about twenty percent,the value index about the same. Equal
weight, and this is important.The SMP equal weight over the last year
up about twelve percent compared to twentypercent for the SMP five hundred index.

(03:24):
And equal weight equal weight NASTAC isup just about twenty four percent compared about
thirty five thirty six percent for theNASTAC. And and and I bring that
up because listen, when when youlook at your portfolios and you look at

(03:46):
the S and P five hundred index, you got we talked about it yesterday.
Some of the Magnificent seven companies.I mean, these companies are rocking
it. You got Apple that makesup seven percent of the SMP, Microsoft
almost six and a half percent,Amazon three percent, NA Video three percent,

(04:08):
Alphabet which is Google, about fourpercent, Tesla two percent, Meta
two percent. There's the magnificent seven. But when you look at the equal
weight, each and every one ofthose, each and every one of those
have an equal weight. That's wherethe name comes in. Equal weight point

(04:28):
to two percent of the index.So when you when you put it in
perspective, over the last year,the SMP is up twenty percent. That
equal weight index is only up approximatelyten to eleven percent, so it's lagging.
And the same with NASTAC that thenumbers are more astonishing with NASTAC.

(04:48):
When you look at the magnificent seventies, they're all in NASTAC as well.
Apple makes up eleven percent of appof NASTAC, Microsoft ten percent, Amazon
five percent, na Video four anda half percent, Meta four percent,
Google six percent, Tesla three percent. The top fifty of NASTAC are fifty

(05:15):
percent the top I'm sorry, thetop ten of NASTAC represents fifty percent of
the index fifty percent. But whenyou look at the equal weight, they
all once again have equal weight,and that comes down to about you know,
you're getting about one percent of eachholding equally. That's where the name

(05:38):
comes in equal weight. So thereyou have it. And if you look
over the last year, you know, and this is this is good from
from October twelfth. Qqq's the leader. It's one of our top holdings.
It's a core holding for us.As you hear me say often, until
I'm mentally incompetent and Marty, Johnand Ryan tell me, hey, Steve

(06:00):
and I'll just sit back. Wegot this or I'm dead. Will probably
always have QQQ is a core holdingbecause the index is I call it our
growth index, and it gives usa weighting to technology because that NASDAC,
when you look at the at thesectors, technology makes up thirty three percent

(06:20):
of it. Thirty three percent ofNASDAC is technology, and I call it
our growth slash Technology Index. Soyou know, up thirty six percent since
since the low of October twelfth,SMP, as I said, is up
almost twenty percent. You got theQQQ equal weight up about twenty six percent,

(06:46):
and the SMP equal weight is laggingat about eleven percent. We need
that equal weight to come up becausewe can have the Magnificent seven carry the
load. And that's what's been goingon this year since really the bottom of
the market, the equal Magnificent sevenhas been carrying the load. We need

(07:08):
other companies to kind of come inand carry their weight so that this broad
stock market rally is truly a broadstock market rally where you have mid cap
small caps, you know, thestocks that that aren't so weighted heavily weighted
in their respective indexes. When thathappens, then you know this market is

(07:30):
ready to take off. And I'mhopeful, I'm hopeful that that it'll happen,
and it'll happen sooner than later.You know. Year to date,
man, the equal weight index forthe SMP is not doing so good.
It needs to really kick in thereand do better. One eight hundred eight

(07:54):
two five five nine four nine.One eight hundred eight two five fifty nine
forty nine. If you have anyquestions, folks, any questions whatsoever,
give me a call. I'm goingto take a quick quick break and it's
only a fifteen second break. I'mgoing to get a sip of Joe Java
coffee better known as and I'll beready to take your calls on the other

(08:18):
side of the news break. One. I'm sorry the short break. One
eight hundred eight two five five ninefour nine. That's right. I'm Stephen
Bouchet. I'm sitting here live hopefullygiving you some good information. You get

(08:41):
one opportunity to retire. I wantto make sure that you're prepared and that
you are going to live the qualityof life that you always strength of your
work for decades, folks, decadesand why shouldn't you have a nice,
nice retirement career in retirement where youcan do what you always streamed of doing.

(09:03):
One eight hundred eight two five five, nine four nine. So yesterday
I wasn't too kind on our electedofficials, was I. You know,
I didn't have a whole lot ofnice things to say, because I'm so
tired, so sick and tired ofthem taking these these governments shut down.
The scare that the fear that theyinstill in people, especially our mature you

(09:30):
know, our mature neighbors, theelderly that are living on Social Security.
They when they hear that the government'sgoing to shut down and not pay its
bills, the first thing they thinkis they're not getting their Social Security check,
and can you blame them? Youknow, this is what the politicians
do. They instill fear. Theyare both battling trying to get what they

(09:52):
feel as their fair share, andthey pushed it right to the right to
the brink. And who listen,we've been We've been through ten shutdown since
nineteen seventy seven. Even if wedid go into a shutdown, we'll come
out of the shutdown. But unfortunately, there's a little fear that runs through
investors' minds because they think that thegovernment is coming to an end. It's

(10:15):
not. Maybe some of the politiciansshould maybe retire and let's get some fresh
blood. I am all in favorof term limits. There you go.
I'm not here to talk politics,but I am in favor of term limits.
Like there's no tomorrow. Get somefresh blood in there before people can

(10:35):
hang in there too long, betoo powerful. Remember when they first get
elected, they go to you know, shaking your hand and kissing the babies.
And then when they get too powerful, you can't even get near them
because they're surrounded by by security.So they finally came to a resolution that
forty five day funding bill. Iknow they can't make it permanent, right,

(10:58):
forty five day funding bill, Sothey're kicking the can down the road.
I think the markets will rejoice tomorrow. Usually it does because that that
dark cloud is not hanging over thehead. So let's hope we have a
nice day in the markets tomorrow.One eight hundred eight two five five nine
four nine one eight hundred eight twofive fifty nine forty nine. Any questions,

(11:22):
any questions whatsoever, give me acall. I'd love to talk to
you. Yesterday was an amazing,an amazing day in the markets. We
had so many, so many goodquestions and you know, all across the
board. So I can't thank youenough, folks for tuning in and being
a loyal listener. I try mybest to give you a good quality show,

(11:43):
good information that you can go outor at least you know if you're
doing it on your own, I'mat least planning a seed, maybe being
your devil's advocate. If you're workingwith an advisor, I'm giving you some
ammunition to go talk with your advisorsto see if the advice they're giving you
is right for you. As youknow, we're a fiduciary. We only

(12:05):
care about what's right for our clients. We don't have any hidden agendas.
We are fully transparent. We discloseeverything I can't begin to tell you.
And I've surrounded myself by a teamof nineteen other professionals and I've coached them,
I've mentored them. They are exactlya clone image of myself, and

(12:28):
that means a lot to me becausewhen a client engages our services, I
take it very very seriously, andbeing a fiduciary I've been a fiduciary for
now over thirty years. Over thirtyyears, I've been a fiduciary. Back
then, nobody knew what it was. I loved working with my clients.
I just didn't it like earning commissionssix percent commission for selling a nuity's five

(12:50):
point three quarters percent commission for sellingmutual funds. I just did not like
that. So I became a fiduciary, and we are truly true professionals when
it comes to the relationship. Oneeight hundred eight two five, five,
nine, four nine. Give mea call any questions you have. So

(13:11):
on Friday, the SMP, youknow, fell and the worst month so
far this year. SMP was downabout five percent, now as that QQQ
was down about six percent for themonth, and it was also down for
the quarter. You know, whenyou look at the quarter, SMP was

(13:31):
down three point six five percent forthe quarter, now as that composite was
down four point one two. Russelltwo thousand was down five point five and
a half percent. And I saythat because that's the mid cap small cap
index. You remember what I saida few moments ago, you really really

(13:52):
want to see the rest of themarket part take in the rally. So
we need the Russell two thousand todo better. We need that equal weight
QQQ and SMP to do better.But for the quarters, so here you
have the NASTAC compounds it down fourpoint one two percent QQQ, and that's

(14:13):
what you buy when you buy NASTAC, you're actually buying the hundred largest companies.
That was only down three point sixpercent, so it outperformed the SMP,
which was down three point six five. QQQ was down three point zero
six. One reason why our portfoliosheld in there for the quarter. We
didn't lose as much money because wehad that allocation towards QQQ. It's an

(14:37):
important index of an important holding inour portfolio. Bonds are down, two
folks, here today bonds are downover one percent. There you have it,
first time maybe in history that bondsmaybe down for two years in a
row. That's never happened. Oneeight hundred eight two five, five,
nine, four nine. Let's goto the phone lines. We have Mike

(14:58):
in Troy. Hello, Mike,Hello, how are you doing today?
I'm doing right, thanks. Questionon the indexes you had mentioned the SMP
five hundred and was it the QQQwith the p five hundred. When I
look at your returns on mass overtime, it seems like that's a good

(15:22):
investment to buy an index either Iguess in an EFT or the index,
and just that, you know,when I look at picking individual stocks and
even recommendations from various firms, italmost seems like the SMP's a safer and
you know, broader back. SoI guess question, you know, what's

(15:45):
your thoughts on just investing in anSMP, and should do do an index
or an EFT? Maybe explain thedifference between the FT and the index.
Yes, so absolutely absolutely you should. You should be investing in an index.
It's our core holding the broad stockmarket index, so that takes into

(16:07):
consideration not only the SMP, butthe MidCap in small cap index last year
that was down about nineteen point fivepercent. The SMP was down about eighteen
percent over the last ten years.The SMP was down twice once in twenty
and eighteen, down about four anda half percent in twenty twenty two last

(16:29):
year, with dividends down about eighteenpercent. If you look at your fifteen
year average return year in year out, that includes the Great Recession, where
the SMP was down fifty percent.It includes COVID. Remember Covid. Oh
my god, we can't get Covidout of our minds. It's rearing its
ugly head again. But three anda half years ago COVID hit, the

(16:51):
SMP was down thirty four percent,and then last year the SMP with dividends
was down about eighteen percent. Soyou have three made your bear markets.
Because the SMP was considered in abear market last year it did touch twenty
percent, which is the formal definitionof a bear market. You had three

(17:11):
major bear markets, corrections, threerecessions. Your average return is eleven point
two two percent over that time andthe same with the total stock market index
just about the same eleven percent.QQQ is another one of our holdings,
and your average return is seventeen percentover that same time period. This is

(17:34):
why we own QQQ. And nobody, and I mean nobody in my firm
will be able to tell me tounderweight QQQT, no matter how volatble it
is, because QQQ last year wasdown thirty two percent when the SMP was
only down eighteen percent. But yearto date, you know, QQQ is

(17:55):
up thirty six percent when the SMPis is up thirteen percent. So there
you have it. I said yesterdayI almost had an identical question yesterday,
Mike, and I recommended to thegentleman he wanted to help his daughter out,
who's twenty three years old, thewrothy ray. At that age,
she should be one hundred percent investmentin the stock market. Closer eyes,

(18:17):
don't wait in time. This isa good opportunity to get back in.
We're optimistic the markets will be higher. And I would split between the Total
Stock Market Index, which gives youbroad representation of large cap, MidCap,
small cap, and QQQ, whichare the hundred largest companies in NANSTAC,

(18:37):
and you could put that on autopilotand watch it go. Now, we
do a whole lot more. Weunderweight and overweight different sectors. So when
we look at our US stock marketsleep we're always out performing the market because
we're just doing a little bit moreabout For those those investors that just want
something that they don't have to worryabout, q QQ and the Total Stock

(19:00):
Market Index would be the way togo. Did I lose you Mike,
Nope, Okay, yep, no, thank you. That's h that's definitely
helpful. Did I put you tosleep. Nope, nope, I'm I'm
listening to generally and take a note. All right, perfect, you appreciate

(19:21):
that. You have another question?Or did I help you? I guess
you know with the the index,now you're you're actually buying an index.
I hear folks talking about buying ane FT instead of an index or a
mutual fund. So so let meexplain the difference. And you did ask
that question a few moments ago,so I'm sorry I didn't get to it.

(19:45):
And EATF is an exchange trade offund. We manage over a billion
dollars on behalf of our clients.We don't have one mutual fund in the
portfolio at the moment, not onemutual fund. We only have ETFs.
Now that doesn't mean we won't havea mutual fund. If there's a money

(20:06):
manager we want access to, andthe only way we can get to that
money manager, it would be throughan ETF. Like last week I talked
about Ron barn one of the oneof the great all time managers. He
has a Focus fund. If Iwanted Ron Barons, if I wanted to
get into his brain and his picks, we would add Focus fund into the

(20:26):
mix. We don't have one atthe moment, So ETFs is what we
use, and you can buy theindex, like if you buy SPY.
That's the most popular index, thatis the S and P five hundred index.
We actually use the Charles Schwab BroadStock Market Index SCHB. Internal management
fee point zero three percent. Vanguardhas one v TI and they're both indexes

(20:55):
both in an exchange traded fund rapperETF. Now, the difference between ETFs
and mutual funds. The average feeaccording to the morning Star for mutual funds
is about one percent. Now,if you buy the S and P five
hundred indecks in a mutual fund,and let's say usually it won't be one
percent, but let's say it's pointfour percent, Well, if you can,

(21:18):
if you can buy the ETF atpoint zero three percent internal fees,
there's internal fees mic in every investmentETFs, mutual funds, annuities, there's
internal fees. So if you canget an ETF at point zero three percent,
or a mutual fund with the averagefee at one percent, or a
nudies, it's even worse. Holdon to the seat of your pants,

(21:40):
folks, if you bought a nudyrecently, you're paying almost three percent internally.
That means that SMP has to outperformedby that much more to get the
same returns. So we prefer ETFs. You can also get active managed ETFs.
They're more transparent, they're more taxefficient, and we like it.

(22:00):
And last but not least, you'reright. Sixty five to eighty five percent
of the time stock pickers, thosestock jocks that are out there buying and
selling stocks can't outperform their benchmark.And most people should be compared to the
SMP as their benchmark. Sixty fiveto seventy five percent of the time they

(22:22):
just can't outperform their benchmark. Andthis is why sometimes having that whole boring
passive managed index is the way togo. Mike, great question. You
stay well, be healthy. Ilove my hometown of Troy. So today
I'm actually doing the show from SaratogaSprings Downtown Broadway on Saratoga Springs A.

(22:49):
Folks were coming up to the bottomof the hour. You're listening to Let's
Talk Money, brought to you byBouscheff and Andrewa, where we help our
clients prioritize their health while we managetheir wealth. For life. The phone
mines are open. One eight hundredeight two five, five nine, four
nine one eight hundred eight two fivefifty nine forty nine. Give us a

(23:10):
call with any questions you have.I'll see on the other side of the
newsbreak. It's a short newsbreak.Oh we we messieur without any further ado.
I'm Stephen Bouchet sitting here live folks. I can't thank you enough for

(23:30):
hanging in through the news and Ican't thank you enough for tuning in every
weekend, every Saturday at ten,every Sunday morning at eight. You just
you make doing this show just thejoy. I get so energized doing this
show and trying to help the listeningaudience with questions, and even our clients
that tune in every week, theyget to hear what I'm thinking or one

(23:52):
of my colleagues what we're thinking inthe office, and it's like, you
know, it's like having a phoneconference with them every week. So thank
you for tuning in. If youhave any questions, don't don't wait,
give us a call. There's nosilly question. One eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine one eighthundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine,

(24:18):
you know, so we're gonna gointo tomorrow's trading day. The shutdown
is we kick the can down theroad. Our beloved politicians elected officials that
are supposed to protect us. Theyfound a way of not going into a
shutdown. We'll push it off forforty five days, readdress it. Well,

(24:40):
well, we'll come back and havesome more fun. You got the
yield on a ten year note hitfour point six percent. That's the first
time since two thousand and seven.That's big news, folks. For the
last fifteen, sixteen, seventeen years, you have not been earning any any
interests, no interest whatsoever, whetherit be your savings account, buying a

(25:04):
CD, buying a bond, noplace to go to make money. For
conservative investors that usually put bonds intheir portfolio to soften the risk, they
found out last year that bonds canlose money just like stocks. Actually,
bonds lost almost as much as stocks. And this year bonds are down one

(25:25):
percent. The SMP, you know, the SMP is up twelve percent,
bonds are down one percent. Sothose risky stock market investments once again are
outshining all other asset classes, whetherit be bonds, real estate, commodities,
cash, those are all different assetclasses, and overtime stocks do better

(25:48):
than all other asset classes. Idon't think that's going to change. I
mean, ninety years worth of thatis pretty good in my books, and
stocks by far have been best performingasset class. But you got to take
years like last year, or yearslike two thousand and eighteen, where where
you give back a little bit.Twenty and eighteen, as I shared with

(26:11):
Mike from Troy, the SMP wasdown four and a half percent two th
eighteen. But over the last tenyears your average return is almost twelve percent,
the same as for the last fifteenyears, almost twelve percent year in
year out, with all that volatility. And that's that's how you have to
look at your portfolio. One ofthe callers yesterday we talked, and I

(26:33):
said, the best thing you cando is have a well diversified portfolio.
Put it on autopilot. If itwere up to me, investors would get
one statement a year, no internetaccess. They would truly let time do
what time does best, and that'sreally give decent returns in a well diversified
portfolio. One eight hundred eight twofive, five, nine, four nine

(26:56):
let's go back to the phone lines. We have David Skin acted. He
Hello, Dave, Hey, Steve, thanks for taking my call. I've
got a question four. You tunedin a little late. My apologies if
you already covered it, but I'mwondering what your latest thoughts are on the
ten year Treasury. I'm personally hoping, hoping, praying to see it hit

(27:18):
five. I know in the fouryou thought maybe it peaked at four,
and here we are at four anda half. What do you think now
now, Dave, you know,it's like being a young guy and you
know, being out late at night, and you know, you remember that
song last dance and I forget whosings it, but you search the dance

(27:40):
floor looking for somebody to dance with, and you know, sometimes you get
you get stuck and there's nobody todance with because everybody's taken. You waited
too long. So the moral ofthe story is, I love bonds right
now. I love bonds as muchas I loved stocks. Ryan my son,

(28:03):
who heads our investment committee, justwent in and bought a boatload of
long term bonds yesterday for our client, said Wilhelm. Our portfolio trader did
an amazing job making this work.And listen, two years ago, the
yield on the ten year was pointfive two percent. Forty two years ago,

(28:26):
the yield on the ten year wassixteen percent. So over forty years,
that yield went from sixteen down thepoint five two. We went all
the way up to four point twomonths ago, and then it dropped back
to three point five. And herewe are almost at four point six for
that ten year bond. And I'vebeen talking a lot about this. And

(28:48):
believe me, folks, I've beendoing radio for twenty eight years, almost
twenty nine years, and you've neverheard me talk so positively about as I
am. Now, don't wait.The yield may go to five percent.
I'm in the camp that the worstis behind us. We have a lot

(29:10):
of bad news built into the market. We know that the FED has been
talking tough. We know the Fedhad eleven rate hikes. They've paused twice.
Now we'll see what happens on Halloweenand November first. Will they pause
again. I'm guessing they will,although there's a chance that they may hike

(29:30):
rates because they have to talk tough. They have egg on their face.
Two years ago, when inflation wasrearing its ugly head. They came out
and said, oh, inflation,it's just transitory, it's temporary. Janet
Yelling, Our Treasury Secretary and theWhite House both echoed what the Feds said.
They were all wrong. The reasonwhy they don't fill up their car

(29:55):
with gas, they get driven towork, They don't shop for groceries,
they have somebody cooking for them,and they don't pay their heating bills.
You and I and everybody listening newthat inflation was real. And I'm talking
tough right now on the Fed.Because they missed the boat, they missed
doing their job. They had tomake up for it, which is why

(30:15):
they're like a schoolyard bully. Thattough talk, and that's what Jay Powell
has been doing. But inflation isa moving target. It came down from
nine point one percent last June,came all the way down the three percent
this June were creeping up to aboutthree point seven percent. But that's timing.
This CPI report for the month ofSeptember is going to be huge,

(30:38):
and if inflation continues to come down, Dave, I don't think the Fed
has to raise rates. So maybethis is the high water mark. I'm
not going to say it is becauseI thought when it was four point two.
I have egg on my face too, because I said, I think
this is the high watermark for bonds, and it went down to three point

(30:59):
five, and I was feeling prettygood about my statement. Then here we
are at four point six, soI got egg on my face. But
I'll admit to that. I'm notsure if it'll go to four point eight
five. But you can't. Youcan't feel bad about locking in on a
four point six percent ten year treasurynote. This is a good buying opportunity.

(31:19):
Very well, I'm glad you gota little egg and maybe maybe maybe
it's time to start dollar costs Saffersonand and hoping it goes up a little
bit more. But thanks so muchfor taking my call, Dave. Thank
you for calling. It was agood question. Folks. You can hear
me I if it listen, don'twait for rates to go to five percent.

(31:41):
They could drop the four before theygo to five. So you don't
want to be left holding the bagbeing that that that that that guy at
the at the disco. Why lastDance is playing through the speaker system and
there's nobody to dance with You don'twant to wait for that ten year.
It could go to five. Absolutely, it could go to five. I

(32:04):
don't think it will. And evenif it does, getting four point six
percent right now, there's nothing wrongwith that. Listen for the quarter you
if you want to put it inperspective, the long bond twenty year plus
treasuries is down fourteen percent for thethird quarter alone, fourteen percent. That

(32:25):
is crazy. The intermediate term bondsseven to ten was only down five percent
for the quarter. So there youhave it. I mean bonds, this
is this is a pretty good opportunityif you're looking to add fixed income to
your portfolio and you want to dollarcost as Dave says, dollar costs the

(32:49):
average we call it, we callit when it comes to bonds and CDs
ladder of portfolio. Sure, youcan buy a one year for five and
a half percent, a six monthfor five and a half almost five point
six percent. Why would you?Why would you not want to load up
on that? Why buy amaze theold US ten year at four point six

(33:12):
Because when that six month and oneyear comes due, where will interest rates
be? If they're lower, you'restuck. You don't ever want to be
stuck, folks, You're stuck holdingcash that now you have to invest in
a new bond with a lower rate. So ladder or portfolio. That's what
Ryan did for our clients on Friday. We bought some you know, two

(33:32):
year, three year, five year, seven year, ten year ladder to
portfolio. I think it's a goodtime to add CDs or bonds to the
portfolio. Don't get greedy. Oneeight hundred eight two five five nine four
nine one eight hundred eight two fivefifty nine forty nine. The bond index
was down three point two two percent, almost the same as the SMP for

(33:57):
the third quarter. The third quarterwasn't pretty. Gave some back. Month
of September absolutely wasn't pretty. Itwasn't There wasn't anything nice about the month
of September. You know, thefirst six months of the year was outstanding.
But still, folks, when youput it in perspective, the NAZDAC
is up thirty five or twenty sixpercent, but QQQ, and I keep

(34:22):
reminding you because when you buy NAZAC, you're actually buying QQQ, which is
the hundred largest companies that's up thirtyfive percent year to date. The SMP
is up twelve percent, and youknow, you know from listening to the
show, I've been underweight international investmentsfor two decades plus. We've been out

(34:42):
of them for years. And yearto date, the rest of the world
excluding this great country of ours uptwo point nine compared to the SMP UP
twelve, Emerging markets down point fourcompared to the SMP UP twelve, So
we still do not own the internationalinvestments. When we look at our US

(35:02):
equity sleeve, our US equity sleeveis pretty dynamic. I'm really proud of
the work we do with the returnsthat that that we get on behalf of
our clients, and I'll put ourportfolios up against against all others. I'm
just proud of the discipline, thatmethodology that goes into trades that that we

(35:23):
make on behalf of our clients oneeight hundred eight, two, five,
five, nine, four nine.So you know, one more thing.
On bonds, this could be historicmoment if if bonds and down in twenty
twenty three, it'll be the firsttime that we hit two straight years of

(35:45):
negative returns. You know that's thatthat that's crazy, Actually three straight years
because twenty twenty one the bond indexwas down almost two percent. That bond
index was down two percent twenty twentyone, thirteen percent in twenty twenty two,
and right now it's down one percentyear today. That'll be big that

(36:07):
if that happens, you know,So for that safe haven of the portfolios,
people usually add bonds so they softenthe volatility of stocks. Guess what,
I'm sixty five, my wife's sixtyseven. We have the same birthday.
We are one hundred percent invested,just like our clients. The only
difference is I'm one hundred percent investedin the stock market. I'm in what

(36:31):
we call our all equity strategy.So I'm comfortable Listen when when stocks go
down, I don't. I don'tget I could care less. I don't
even look at my portfolio. Don'teven look at it. Why should I.
I'm human. I'm just gonna bedepressing. Paper losses, and that's

(36:52):
all they are unless you really sell. They're just paper losses, nothing other
than a paper loss. And nomatter how how many times the market goes
down, the market always comes back, and it's always gone on to make
new all time highs. This timeis no different. Every market crushing a

(37:13):
lot of investors say, oh,this time is different, the market's never
coming back. Guess what, Excuseme? The market has come back each
and every time. I'm gonna takea quick fifteen second break. Don't go
anywhere. Hello, folks, thankyou for tuning in today and letting them

(37:37):
clear my throat. It was alittle frog, just a little one.
That's why I only needed a fifteensecond break, Just a little frog in
my throat. One eight hundred eighttwo five five nine four nine. We
had a call or call in,but they hung up. Call back in,
you know, one eight hundred eighttwo five fifty nine forty nine.

(38:00):
So you know, bonds look good, stocks look good. I said yesterday,
I'm optimistic on the stock market.I'm in the camp that I don't
think we're going to go into arecession, and if we do, hopefully
it'll be a shallow recession. Threesix months from now, we'll readdress this
and look back. Hopefully I won'thave egg on my face, and we

(38:22):
won't. But even if we do, folks, nothing to be scared about.
So what we go into a littlerecession, we come out of a
recession. Overtime over time, stocksand bonds will be will be fine.
The stock market will recover. Italways has, it always will. And
that's why a good, well diversifiedportfolio, you shouldn't be trading it every

(38:44):
day. You really should be lookingat that portfolio and making sure you have
the amount of risk you're willing totake, whether that's you know, I'm
very comfortable with one hundred percent stocks. I don't expect my clients to follow
my lead, although we have alot of clients that do. A lot
of clients like myself. They say, oh, I'm working, I'm getting

(39:06):
a paycheck, or I own mybusiness, I'm getting profits. That's like
the bond portion of my investment portfolio. It's paying me interest, it's giving
me a paycheck, and I canhave my money in the stock market.
And we have a lot of retireesthat have said to me, Steve,

(39:27):
the reason why we have the network that we do is because we've been
invested properly through the good and baddays and months and years, and our
portfolios rock solid. Why should westop now? And remember, folks,
we do this for our clients.One to two years worth of what they

(39:49):
need over the next couple of yearsis in a conservative allocation, so that
when, not if, when thatnext correction, when that next bear market,
when that next recession hits, andthe stock and bond markets get violat
on, our clients don't have toworry. We have them protected, and
that's important. Don't get greedy whenit comes to getting the best returns you

(40:15):
can. If you need money overthe next twelve to twenty four months,
pull it out of the stock market. If you are saving for your children's
college education and they're a senior inhigh school, pull it out of the
stock market, unless you're willing tolet it hang in there for the next
four years, and you may notneed it till they're a senior in college

(40:36):
because if you had another can youimagine having a twenty percent correction, having
one hundred thousand dollars saved for collegeand your child or grandchild it's going to
going to college, you know,a few months down the road and your
hundred thousand is now worth eighty thousandbecause the market corrected or set been two

(41:00):
thousand because the market corrected and yougot greedy. That hurts. That's money
you saved in a discipline way tohelp pay those college costs. So when
when your child gets to be asenior, you really want to probably go
from an aggressive stance to more ofa conservative stance. Don't get greedy.

(41:23):
It's real important. And as Isaid, anybody who needs money over the
next year or two, that moneyshould not be invested in the stock market.
You really should have that money outof the market and pushed to the
side. In this way, timecan do what time does best, and
that's that's heals all wounds from allmarket corrections. One eight hundred eight two,

(41:47):
five, five, nine, fournine, give me a call.
So now our number one holding isApple, and you know, Apple's been
really a great holding for us,just the dynamic holding for us. But
you know Apple, Apple is isfighting with China, and you know the

(42:12):
staff from Apple met with Chinese officialsrecently and they're they're talking over new rules
that will restrict detect Giant from offeringmany foreign apps currently available on the iPhone
app store because the Chinese government theydon't want people to be on TikTok,
Instagram, some of these social mediasites. Remember it's a communist country,

(42:37):
and they told Apple no, no, no, no, you can't have
that. So Apple's battling with Chinaon that and I think the number one
platform that the people in China weredownloading was Instagram. Believe it or not.
Why shouldn't they feel like everybody elsearound the world. Well, the

(43:00):
reason why they can't as because they'reliving in a communist country. That's why.
That's why they can't. And Ilistened to a good and you can
find this on YouTube. Bill Lackmanwas interviewed by Scott Wabner of CNBC.
Scott's one of the one of thegood ones, and Bill really put it

(43:22):
out there that our leaders should betalking with China. We shouldn't be buzzing
heads with China. We're a thirtyoh I'm sorry, weren't debt thirty three
trillion. We're a twenty three trilliondollar economy. China's sixteen trillion they're forced
to be reckoned with Number three isfive less than five trillion. We need

(43:43):
to talk with China, we needto have a friendly relationship with them,
whether we agree with their policies ornot. Let's go back to the phone
lines. We have Dave in acar. Hello, Dave, come morning
to see thank you, come morningto Steve. Thanks you a service as
usual. Well, thank you forcalling in. What can I help you
with? Yes, in two years, I'm gonna fully retire. I do

(44:05):
have a define pension. What doyou recommend your clients besides my pension?
I want to start hitting up Ihave a four fifty seven or you have
a raw dire rate and a regularI rate. Do you have a certain
pecking order to hit up first?Yeah? Usually you know. As you
know, we have seven certified financialplanners, four CPAs, two i rs,

(44:28):
enrolled tax agents. We do alot of planning on behalf of our
clients, and most times and notit's always good to let tax deferred money
continue to grow tax deferred. Usuallyyou're in a lower tax bracket in retirement.
How old are you, Dave,I'm fifty seven, fifty seven,

(44:50):
Yes, sir, God bless you. Good for you being able to retire
in a couple of years. Myhackles off to enjoy those enjoy those years.
You work decades to get there,so enjoy enjoy those years. But
in a nutshell, it probably wouldbehoove you if you're not working with a
financial planner, to work with thefinancial planner to come up with a strategy

(45:12):
so that you can figure out howmuch money you should be taking from each
of those buckets. Should you takemoney from the taxable account first? And
you have to remember as you approachsixty five, you know, when your
income gets too high, you're payingmore in Medicare premiums than you need to.
There's there's a lot that goes intowhere you take money from. It's

(45:35):
not just a straightforward answer. Sometimesit's a combination of both. As you
know right now, you know youcan push out your RMD to your you
know, seventy two, seventy three, and pretty soon seventy five years old.
So I don't know why the governmentincrease that because I always thought the
government wanted to get their money.This is why they force people to take

(45:59):
their rmds at the age of seventy. Now they're actually letting people take it
later. So you've got a lotof planning to do. And if you
have a defined benefit plan that meansyou're getting a percentage of your salary's that's
like having liquid gold Dave. Thatis, if you're getting fifty thousand dollars.
We always say to our clients,that's like having a million dollars in

(46:22):
an IRA somewhere. That you're drawingfifty thousand dollars on so you need to
sit down, do some planning.If somebody helps you with your taxes,
do some planning there, Dave,thanks for calling in. We're coming up
to the end of the show.You're listening to Let's Talk Money, brought
to you by Bouschef and Answer Group, where we help our clients prioritize their
health while we manage their life,their wealth for life. I'm tongue tied.

(46:45):
Go to our website, folks,bousche dot com. That's bouche y
dot com. Thank you for tuningin today. Come back next Saturday and
Sunday. Ten am on Saturday,eight am on Sunday. Be well,
Stay healthy,