Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Live from the w g y iHeartStudios. Welcome to the Retirement Planning Show
with your host Dave Kopek from theRetirement Planning Group. Every week, Dave
and his team discussed the ways theycan help people make informed decisions about a
wide array of retirement planning information thatcan support you and developing a more certain
financial future for you and your family. Now it's time for Dave Gobec WGY's
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retirement planning Specialist. You like itall right? That doesn't get you moving,
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nothing worse. That's track music.Let's get to the track. T
g I F Friday night. Justgot paid, Just got paid. Let's
go out and have some fun.I want to hear my twelve hour story
from traveling on an airplane from hE Double hockey Sticks. Oh no,
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yeah, yesterday with the outage andall the no no no. I started
yesterday was Monday. I started onSunday. No. I don't know what
dated anymore. That's wrong with me. I've been trying to figure that out
for thirty years. Thursday, Thursday, we left Florida, Punta Gorda direct
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flight Albini. Got there, startedat eleven am. Didn't get home until
almost midnight direct flight. Oh yeah, it sounds like a direct flight t
ended up in Boise. I don'tknow how anybody deals with anybody that has
to work and that has to flya lot. My son would fly out
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every Monday and Friday, every singleweek for a year and a half.
Hated it. Did you see thepeople yesterday standing in line alta for American
But the thing is is that lightningwas unbelievable? Oh weather related? Then
well, sit tight, I gotDaddy's had a story for you. Then,
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you know, because Ponta Gorda doesnot have the stairs that attach to
the airplane whatever you call it,the one that's enclosed right, it's outside,
right, So every time a lightningstrikes, what happens fifteen minutes,
no kidding. So if you getlike a whole bunch of lightning strikes right,
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which Florida right now is happening becauseit's that time of year, you're
you know what is not getting ona plane right. So we sat sat,
sad, sad, sad, sadsad. So then they said,
okay, it's all clear, let'sgo. So we finally get ready to
go. Everybody gets on the plane. This kid gets on the plane that
was totally drugged out, couldn't evencouldn't even function bad fire or otherwise fetnol.
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Oh boy, oh boy. Ihad to take him off the plane.
And because it was drug related,everybody that was on the plane and
all the baggage and all your contents, how to get back off the plane
because it was drug related, Iguess so. Oh no, I've been
in that situation. Everybody's off.Now they got to do a sweep of
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the plane, and all of ourbags have to get rescanned with the dogs.
Ye. So now we're back onthe plane and guess what happens.
It's lightning again. Oh my,So you can't go on the plane all
right? And guess what they losttheir computer systems. Oh by the way,
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oh by the way. So nowyou got to do it manually by
a piece of favor. Show yourlicense where you know how, you just
scan it you get on the plane, all right. So we were supposed
to be home, just you oryou and Julie, I mean the boss,
Oh boy, Julie. So tomake a long story short, we
got home around midnight for a twelvehour trip, and sounds like I got
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up and got going had a bunchof meetings on Friday that I had to
go to, and last night Iwas like, sounds like Gilligan's Island.
Last night we went out to dinnerat Mario's and Lake George had a wonderful
dinner, and I'm like in thechair, I can't even My head is
like falling down on my chest.You know what you go through, that
acceleration, that stress that you know. So it's been really quite the week
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be Florida. My daughter's going toFAU. Spent some time in Boca with
her, nice and beautiful campus,met some wonderful people. Who's your daughter
with you? Yes? Oh,so it was the three of you?
Yes, oh, yes, Oh. That's actually a good thing that you're
all together. Otherwise you'd be losingyour mind. And some people were getting
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very agitated and they were saying badwords to the people that were running the
plane. So it was not afun situation. But we're very happy with
FAU. We spent a lot oftime down there. We're getting some office
space down there. As I've toldyou, Florida is booming. The three
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seas? What are the three seasof Florida? Clut cut clarity and carrot
construction, cranes, concrete, that'sall you say. Constant all over the
place, everywhere you go. You'rea hand seventy five and you're going to
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Ellanton where the outlets are. You'regoing over the bridge towards Sarasota. There
must be twenty cranes there doing thebridge. But it's good to be back.
It's good to be back. It'sgood to be here in upstate New
York. We are going to have, I think, by the looks of
it, a beautiful weekend. Theweather, you guys had some bad weather.
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When I was it was ninety fivedegrees on Wednesday? Is that the
day that the tornadoes were touching down? It could have been Tuesday. Tuesday
went one of those days. Itwas bad. Yeah, Tuesday Wednesdays.
There was a lot of destruction upand we're lucky we just Edwards Range.
Least of who lives in South Glen'sFalls told me up in that area there
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was I guess Glenn's Falls had toshut down. They had an emergency up
there. So you know, thingscan be replaced, lives can't. So
as long as you made it through, everything is fine. All right.
We got a lot of information tocover. First and foremost, don't forget
about our golf outing. We've hada lot of people call about it.
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It's September twenty six, Swing fora Cure. All the money will go
to the American Cancer Society. It'san honor of our native honor and our
wedding. Kelly Pristina, a wonderful, wonderful girl that couldn't beat this horrific
disease. Passed away at age fiftyeight just to peach. Just a wonderful,
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wonderful person. So we're gonna havea This is going to be a
special one for me in a lotof ways because it's an honor of Kelly.
But we're getting a lot of ourstrategic partners. I know that Drew
is going to step up. Whatyou got, You got what you got
about twenty five thousand you're going todonate this year. You think, I
think I already wired in the jury. If you don't know, that's Droyella.
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He's going to be here with methis morning for a while. You
can you can leave whenever you wantto leave, So I usually have you
ad for an hour, but ifyou want to stick around, yeah,
whenever you get the text from yourwife get home. One of the good
news is her whole family's at herhouse. Sleep. They'll probably sleep,
but they won't even know I laughedand came back. It's even perfect.
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That's perfect. So if you wantto attend the golf outing, it's pretty
easy to call our office at fiveeight five eight zero one nine one nine.
I'd love to have you attend.We have a lot of gifts prizes.
Hole in one you'll win a carfrom our good friends at Leah Motor
Group. They are wonderful people,Billy Bob, Billy Bob, and Vinnie
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and Michael, Michael and Deborah.Can't forget the sister Deborah. Uh.
They're just a wonderful family. Verytight family, very tight. All lot
of love in that family, tellyou that much. So we're going to
be talking about a lot of stuff. And I'm going to start off with
this because I know I'm going toDrew is in the mortgage industry. He
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was in the investment banking business foryears before he got into the mortgage industry.
Tel Burnham Lambert. That goes back. I'll tell you what, Mike
Milkin, but that goes back.Yeah, they went from the most profitable
firm to add a business in twelvemonths. And it's called one word leverage.
Yep, junk bond king leverage.You know, some of these derivatives
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were one hundred to one, onehundred to one. You know, it's
it's hard for the common man tounderstand exactly what was going on in Wall
Street. But there's you know thoseHopefully those days will never come back again.
I don't think they will because ofthe bumpers and the guide guide rails,
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the guardrails. I think in eightyeight, if I remember when I
started, he made more money himselfthan the entire firm made. Probably.
Yeah, they didn't even know whatjunk bond zora back then. Yeah,
except for him. Look at BillGross, he's another one. Yeah,
Pimco, Pimco, he's another one. But I got to ask you a
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question, because Drew is assist ourclients for mortgages. I have got another
lead for you too, another clientthat's looking to do some real estate in
Florida. But here's here's I questionto you. We talked about this a
couple few weeks ago, last timeyou're on. I had a woman.
I do have a woman that's aclin of Mars that owns a horse farm
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right right in Florida, and shehas a property that has appreciated unbelievably since
she's been down there in this horsefarm. She needs to make some modifications
and adjustments. And you know,the type of equipment that she's looking for
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is not inexpensive, like a brandnew pickup truck that has the big wheels
in the back, two wheels insteadof dullis Duley's. She needs a dually
and she needs a new trailer forher horses. So I said, you
know what, why don't you lookat a reverse mortgage with Drew because you
can take some of that equity thatyou're sitting on in the house, and
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you can live some of the dreamsthat you're hoping for and you never have
to pay it back. So whathappened? She quiet? She did not
she has not called you yet yet, because she called the office and said
she was going to call you.Yeah, I think, or are you
out to me to see if Ihad heard from her? Are you playing
telephone tech? No? No,I haven't received the call from her yet.
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Okay, Well I got to getout of that. I thought she
had reached out to you because Igot a message this week that she was
going to reach out to you whenI was down in Florida. That's the
only way to turn that spickett onin terms of accessing the equity in your
home turn into income or resource forthat happened to create another payment for yourself.
You know, I've had people sayto me and they come into the
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office. You know, I've heardyou on the radio show talking about reverse
mortgages. Why are you such anadvocate for reverse mortgages? And seeing that
you say on the radio that youdon't get any compensation. Because I'm a
big believer in living your life.You know, if you're wishing and hoping
for something and you're sitting on thisnest egg and there's no desire for legacy
or transfer of wealth, why wouldn'tyou dig into that pot of gold that
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you're sitting right sitting on? Isthere? Does that make sense? One
hundred percent? And like you've alwayssaid, it's not for everybody, it's
all tame situations. It makes alot of sense full tax free, tax
free because you're just accessing your ownequity in your house, right just like
if you did a refinance on yourhouse, you pull out fifty one hundred
thousand dollars, it's yours without anytax cons Let me ask you a question
just out of curiosity. If Iif you it's just safe for me.
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If I did a home equity orreverse mortgage in my house and I use
it basically as a checking account,and you know, I know how what
my limit was, and I wantedto pay it back. If I wanted
to pay it back, you knowI'd pay it back. Could I start
like with zero, take two hundredthousand, and then pay the two hundred
thousand dollars back? Totally? Yeah. So if I'm a speculator, my
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son's in real estate in Florida.Now, let's say I wanted to help
them, right, this is hypothetical, wink wink. But let's say I
wanted to help them and I'm sittingon a lot of equity here in my
home and New York. What wouldbe the disadvantage of doing that? I
mean, as long as he paysme back. I mean he's he's in
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with working with a company right now, David that does rehab, right,
he buy flips, They buy flips, yep, right, or they keep
them from themselves, keep them,rent them for the cash flow. That's
exactly what they do. That's thebusiness. That's the business that he's in,
and they're killing they're killing it.They're killing it. The only negative
I would take in that situation.Yeah, I'm comparing it to a traditional
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home makeue lianta credit versus a reportverse. Uh, the reverse just has
to be in a first lean position. But I get I'm getting tax free
money, right, But I'm alsoI mean, because of my age,
I'm also probably giving some pretty goodleverage with that equity because of my age,
right, not sixty two, I'msixty eight, right, So you
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can probably access about forty percent ofthe value of your home obviously the closing
costs on a reverse mortgage, oryou could do a home equi line of
credit no closing costs and get toeighty percent of the value of your home.
So there's pros and cons of eachone. You have to pay back
and when you don't. Right,But the equity line of credit is not
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going to give me as favorable taxposition, would it? You fall right
from a taxes You can't write itoften nowadays exactly right, correct, you
can't. You can't write off theinterest. Aren't you amazed? But the
aren't you amazed by? That's prettygood because that that's been around for like
five years, Zach, he's applottingme look at that. I think we
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should drop the mic that. DamnNo, seriously, I mean I think
a lot more going on between thoseyears that we I mean, Mike,
both both of my sons love realestate. They like to be involved in
it. Chris's best friend Lorenzo,Yeah, is uh, you know,
it's a lot of properties and alot of properties now. So the thing
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is is that what I'm trying tofigure out is you know, you know,
how how can I take some ofmy dead money or our listeners that
might have children that want to speculatea little bit. I mean, what's
the thing is is that if Iif I have the first lean on the
property, I mean, I'm buyingthe property cash raight right, I'm cashing
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out right. There's not gonna beany I mean, these are properties that
you're gonna you're gonna have to probablyget some they're they're they're sold as is
as it, so there's issues.They gotta be cash or right, So
you got to go in. Yougot to know what you're doing. You
gotta make sure your team has thecapability of doing it right right. But
believe it or not, I thinkthere's a lot of opportunities for this here
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in this region. In this region, Oh yeah, I see it all
the time. I was reading somethingthis morning about some of the best markets
in the country, and Tampa keptcoming up quite a bit in the top
searches for ford A Bill, isyour son going to stay in Tampa?
I think I'll stay in that TampaSarasota area. He's got a serious girlfriend
on Tampa and her parents live inSarasota, and it's just in Sarasota Tuesday.
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Yep, my daughter as a seriousboyfriend her parents. His parents are
building a house in Sarasota. Socoincidental, So seems like both might end
up in Florida, but obviously toosoon to tell. So I was going
to venture down I think this winterand kind of everybody loves sarasotable my new
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best friend. Yep, walking intown in my speed out, it's gonna
be fun. Going to make asplash. Don't do that. They'll be
chasing out of town. All right, We'll be right back the eighty six
percenters. Do you know that eightysix percent of the population has no defined
benefit pension plan. For most ofus, we have to take our life
savings and create a paycheck for therest of our lives in retirement. What
(17:59):
is your plan for retirement income distribution? How you manage your assets during the
most critical years of your lifetime.Nobel Prize winning economist William Sharp has called
retirement income distribution the nastiest, hardestproblem in finance. He points out that
investment, uncertainty and mortality can derailthe most careful laid out retirement income plan.
Call our offices today to start theprocess of building a retirement income distribution
(18:23):
plan. After forty one years ofbeing in the financial services business, you
need to start taking action to startbuilding your own personal retirement income distribution plan.
How do you do that? Totake action? Five one eight five
eight zero one nine one nine.That's five one eight, five eight zero
one nine one nine or RPG retireon the web. Don't procrastinate, motivate
(18:45):
to start building your retirement income distributionplan five one eight five eight zero one
nine one nine. If you haveany questions, please call in now at
one eight hundred eight two five fiftynine forty nine. That's one eight hundred
talk WGY one eight hundred talk wgee. Why we are live in studio
to answer your questions. I loveit. I love your sol all right,
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we are back. Good morning,get up going, It'll be a
gorgeous stay in upstate. This thisis this is why you live here for
the next like seven weeks. Eightythree, eighty three, eighty five.
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No humane last night. Last night, Uh, we're outside on the patio
and actually put put the outdoor fireplacewas a little chili. Yeah great.
As matter of fact, I gota well, you know, I get
up. I was up at fouro'clock, set on my deck up on
Lake George, and I was justsaying to myself, God, it's gorgeous
out right now, you know,beautiful, this is the time. Beautiful.
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A lot of people be in town. Matter of fact, when I
flew up, Julian Mikhaela sat ina separate section of the plane where I
was. We couldn't get three seatstogether. So if you were in first
class, you put them back,put them back by the toilet there at
the back of the plane. Youknow, might sit there honey, no,
(20:33):
you go right ahead. St Idon't know what to tell you things
this Microsoft thing. Put your guysback there. Me in first. I
can't explain it, but a lotof the people on the plane were coming
to this area for two things.Saratoga, right, and a lot of
people don't realize that, you know, if you're not a sports fan.
This is the weekend the induction intothe Hall of Fame for horsing, for
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horse racing. Oh, Cooperstown,that's this weekend. That's this weekend.
And the guy that sat next tome, him and his wife. She
was a retired detective for a policedepartment in Florida, and real nice people,
really nice people. I got talkingto him. But they're staying at
the ODA. Saga. Oh that'snice. That's like the rich Carlton of
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Cooperstown. Yeah, they're staying there. She's originally from Detroit and somebody from
Detroit. I can't think who itis, Zach, Zach will look it
up. We'll have to do alittle uh pretty. I mean, but
you've got people on the plane thatare excited to be here. I mean,
we take the stuff for granted becausewe live here. The beauty of
Saratoga Springs. And also, youknow, you got the Baseball Hall of
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Fame, which some people would youknow, pull their teeth out to visit.
How many times did you go therewhen their kids were young? Twice,
I think Julie and I are therewere twice with the boys. We
had birthday parties there. Oh yeah, it's crazy, all right, So
we're gonna go over. We're gonnawait until the break caare because we're gonn
have to break in a couple ofminutes. So the thing is reverse worrigages
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can be utilized. It's a toolin the toolbox. It doesn't necessarily have
to be for income purposes. Itcould be for legacy transfer of wealth,
healthcare excuse me, or basically apot of money to facilitate opportunities for loved
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ones, relatives, children, etcetera. Agreed, it's a simplify it.
It can be used for anything,literally anything. They would never in
a million years want you to takeit out and throw it in the stock
market or insurance products. Well,we can't do that, it's against the
law. But you could use itto go on vacation. You can use
it to renovate your house. Youcan use it to pay down debt and
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consolidate debt, credit cards, byreal estate, all that anything. Obviously,
I mean they just highly frown upontaking that money and try to,
you know, roll it into somesort of investment, because well, there
was at one points, and I'mnot even too sure how it stands now,
Uh, there was a ruling thatyou know, don't be talking about
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buying life insurance and investments with themoney that you're pulling out of you know,
reverse mortgages for your home. Correct, you know, but you know,
there was a whole thing back thenwhere people would talk about lost opportunity
cost You can get in big dodoo if they find you doing that in
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your business, right, you mightyou might be walking around at Sarasota with
your speed at in shackles. Yeah, your head, that's the one now
cuffed, that's the one. No, no, ye. Other than that,
you literally could use it for anypurpose that you see. You put
your grandkids or kids through college,you name it. As long as you
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can afford the taxes and insurance andthe up keep on the house, that's
the big That's really all they careabout in terms of qualifying. Yeah,
all right, well we'll talk alittle bit more about that. That was
a quick half hour basically talking abouta lot of mumbo jumbo. We didn't
really talk about a lot of financialstuff. But we are the Retirement Planning
Group. We have a lot oflocations now we have five locations in New
(24:17):
York. Oh wonderful graduation. Yeah, And if you like to sit down
with us, we would love tohave the opportunity. We are going to
have some exciting news. There's alot of really good stuff going on behind
the scenes with the Retirement Planning Groupright now. We are growing, we
are expanding, and that's leading tosome additional opportunities that we'll talk about in
(24:40):
the very near future. But I'mvery proud of my team. Can't tell
you enough about how proud I amthe team and what they do and how
they take care of our clients.So if you're looking for a team and
emphasize team, give us a callif you'd like to sit down five eight
five eight zero one nine one nine, check us out on the web pg
(25:00):
retire dot com. And when wecame back, we're gonna be talking a
little bit about the financial markets,what's going on in the interest rate environment,
our FED Chairman Powell and our CrystalBlaw what we think is gonna happen
over the next four to five months, we'll be right back. This guy's
(25:49):
gotta crazy. Well, i'll tellyou what, it's a good thing people
can't see us live, Thank theLord above, especially after that move there.
Please please, you didn't think Ihad those moves. I didn't think
ye had speed alive. The visualof this audience just is just I can
I can hear them driving off theruds. Everybody's pulling over. Yeah,
(26:15):
you know, so at one point, at one point I thought about doing
the show live from different locations.We actually talked about this at the radio
station, like once or twice amonth, we'd go out to different locations
and do the show live, whichI was pretty fun. Well, yeah,
I thought it was kind of agood idea, you know, kind
of integrate the public into a littlebit. And we're still talking about we
(26:36):
might we might do it, youknow, a few times a year,
doing lobbies of hotels and places likethat. That'd be fun. Go up
to the track. Yeah, youknow, VanderBurg used to do it all
the time. Oh yeah, Ithink he still does, still does.
I think he goes train station,post O TV and all that pols on
it for years. All right,Yeah, as everybody knows what's on's to
(27:00):
everybody what you do? Yes,So my name is Drew Iello, the
branch manager with Fairway Independent Mortgage inClifton Park, license in all fifty states,
and we do forward mortgages, reversemortgages, construction loans, renovation loans,
USCA, V A, FHA,you name it, pretty much anything
(27:22):
regarding mortgages. We do. Whatare the what is the baseline now for
mortgages? Do personal and also ifyou want to invest investment properties, what's
the percentage of ask? Is thereany sweet spots? So I would say
if you're if you're buying a homeas a primary residence. In terms of
(27:45):
down payment, this is a bigmisconception because the media always gets it wrong.
You can buy a house with aslittle as three percent down for the
average person, unless you're a veteran. How much three percent down on a
primary residence, five percent down ifit's a multifamily, three percent down if
it's a single family. Veterans,they don't even need a down pay.
(28:07):
USDA they don't need a down paymenteither, zero down. So those are
the traditional mortgages that are out there. You know, in terms of buying
investment property, it's a whole differentanimal. You know, two three,
four family, you need twenty fivepercent down. I'm chocked by that because
I don't understand that, because youwould think a multi unit would could be
more there would be more safety tothe lender than a single family. This
(28:33):
is the other thing too, though, right, because there's income. But
they think, all right, DaveCopek has this primary residence and investment property
multi family. Something happens that DaveKopek, he's given up paying the mortgage
on the multi family versus his primaryresidence. So they look at it that
way. And the marketability of multifamilyis a smaller piece of the pie than
(28:55):
primary owner occupied. So from arisk standpoint, you pay out a point
higher and an interest rate and youneed a bigger down payment. What I'm
noticing even in Florida, my sonis in Tampa, which I was over
there the other day before he flewout, or tried to fly out,
try to fly out, but earlyin the morning we're in Tampa. He's
(29:18):
on West Kennedy, which is overby the airport. He's in a beautiful
building. I bet you she's nottoo far from Colby. Probably not,
because I know Kolby is about eightten minutes from the airport. Yeah,
that's exactly where David is. He'sin up up Midtown. Yeah, that
is where are my son. Theymight be in the same building. He's
in, the Regis Building R.E. G Us. It's a beautiful
(29:38):
brown, brown and glass building.It's a beautiful building. But it's on
West Kennedy. A lot of constructionthere. And uh, but commercial real
estate, even in Florida right now, is having issues. Now. We're
working with a company right now,consulting firm that's my in size, you
(30:00):
know, as far as some strategicrelationships that we're trying to work out.
Every single one of their employees worksfrom home, no kidding, So when
we work, when we have meetingswith these people, all zoom, it's
all zoom. Well it's ring centralwe use, no kidding, ring Central
(30:21):
or zoom. I guess those arethe two options. And the reason why
I asked this because I'm not toosure if your ears to the ground on
this, because you hear about there'sopportunities now commercial real estate as far as
conversion, oh right, conversion right, No more office, but the opportunity
to turn it into apartments, etcetera. Right, I would think they
(30:47):
have to repurpose that. This wasthe year twenty twenty four not supposed to
be good for a commercial real estate. But I haven't heard this bloodbath yet,
have you? No? I havenot, which is which is kind
of amazing, because we're obviously morethan halfway through the year. I did
hear. Obviously bank corporate bankruptcies areup astronomically compared to last year. So
(31:07):
we're starting to see the dominoes.But that has to do with the interest
rate, interest rates, death service, that's it's death service, right,
And and you know we talked offthe air. I think we're starting to
finally see, uh, some cracksand this all this is starting to play
out. Look at unemployment claims,the extended unemployment claims, We look at
(31:30):
the unemployment rate just by itself.It was a kind of a surprise a
couple of weeks ago we hit fourpoint one. I think, in my
head, if we hit four pointtwo, that's not a realistic number.
On No, the real number isthe U six. Right, is every
talking absolutely right? Yeah? Andthat's what you're finding sometimes when you see
(31:51):
these really good job reports, ifyou dig deep and look at that U
six report, which is the realnumber, you're finding most of those jobs
are people getting second and third jobs. Well, here here's the boogeyman in
the closet where what I would callthe droiela. I love coming on the
show. This is the problem,right, I just came back from Florida.
(32:16):
I don't care where you go.Nobody can get help now, nobody,
nobody, I mean, people arebegging for help. Still still qualified
people that show up for work,that want to work, that stay.
(32:37):
I mean, I can't tell youhow many conversations that I've had with business
people that still are being stressed outhigh anxiety because they can't find enough competent
people. And I have guess intown, and one of them is in
the same field that you're in,relative at leases, and he thinks it's
the generation where people come they interview, Uh, nobody wants to work even
(33:04):
when they do get hired. Hefinds that he goes through them like toilet
paper. Tell you that the guy, the guy that sat next to me
on the airplane was a retiree.He had two businesses here in New York
State. Two Well mention his name, you would recognize his name, uh,
(33:24):
And he just said about three yearsago, he said, that's it.
I'm not dealing with this anymore.They wouldn't show up for work.
They'd start work. When to wherethey are at the coffee shop during working
hours? Are they here? Youknow? Are they going to show up?
And he just said it was justso frustrating that, you know,
(33:44):
he got a knock in the doorand guy wanted to buy both of his
businesses and he said, sure,yep, I'm out of here, and
he did three years ago. Itgot worse, right, and he said
that, you know, he talksto the guy that purchased his business and
it's worse than it was when hehad the business. I don't understand it.
And maybe if somebody has an answerto this. Uh. You know,
(34:05):
I've heard that we've spoiled our kids, right the helicopter moms, the
helicopter mom and dads. We putthem in a position where, you know,
this is not true for all kids, because I've seen a lot of
kids that are just like you know, your kid, my kid. I
mean, I'm very proud of myboys and my daughter. They're very hard
workers, you know what I mean. And my wife probably comes from my
(34:28):
wife, you know, I youknow, I you notice I added my
wife and of course because she's listening. But yeah, But the thing is
is that I don't know what itis. It's uh, you know they
say that the what is it?Generation? Z? What the hell's generation
is it that we're eighteen to youknow, like the thirty four? Yeah?
What is that? What do theyclassify that as? Whatever? That
(34:50):
generation is almost a millennium now,it's it's after millennials, all you Zach.
Right now, I'm thirty five,so you're just over it by a
year. You're working seven days aweek right now, I am right as
a millennial, right as a millennial. So whatever is below you? And
that's not normal, No, itisn't. That's not normal. And I
(35:14):
don't know what happens. You know, they're living at homes, they don't
have to worry about paying rent.I'm not sure that psychology because that demographic
where you say they need help everywhereeighteen to thirty six males, they're like
fifteen million of them not working.I go to Mario's up in Lake George
all the time because I love I'veknown Nancy and Paul for decades. Hard
(35:37):
to believe fifty years. I've knownhim for fifty years. They are wonderful
people, wonderful people. We werethere last night. Paul has been looking
for a cook for over a year. Pays well flexibility, time off.
(35:58):
He can't find a cook. Whatthough, it's coming? What's coming?
I think the the economy is gettingsoft, and people that are not working
trying to find jobs are having ahard time, you know, if they
get laid off or fired. Ithink they're having a hard time getting jobs.
(36:19):
So corporate, corporate is changing.I don't know about their leisure and
hospitality, but even that last unemploymentreport, the leisure in hospitality was way
down in terms of new jobs.You might have peaked out. Your mom
and your sister are living in Florida. Both sisters and mother. Oh both
are down there. Yeah, Jupiterand Tampa. Oh. I didn't realize
that. Okay. So here's thequestion I have for you, because I
(36:42):
was thinking about this in the wayhere today. How has their quality of
life changed in like the last threeto five years. Are they still happy
in Florida? With the influx ofpeople and the pressure and the traffic,
and they are, yeah, Ithink, I mean from what they tell
me, they are. My oldersister's been there maybe ten years now,
and a sweet spot and Jupiter andobviously when they bought versus what real estate
(37:08):
is now huge. It's like,you know, two three times they bought.
Absolutely yeah, and my sister,younger sister up in Tampa. Everything
in Tampa is new in the lastthree years. Everything, right, I
mean that whole city is brand new. I'm just there, you know,
I just spent a day and ahalf there. We actually stayed at a
(37:29):
condo on Clearwater Beach and everything onClearwater Beach is brand new. Everything's new.
We stayed at the end. Veryfew facilities or the older buildings.
Right, you go from the bridge, the Sankee Bridge, yep, to
North clear Water. Yeah, thewhole waterfront's new. Everything pretty much so
(37:51):
as so far, Yeah, theylove it. They love it. Obviously
this time of year, this istheir winter. Everybody's indoors. It's super
hot and can't even go to thebeach and you know, no way to
get cold, and I don't.I'll tell you what Julie and I were
at the beach on Wednesday because wehad a down one down day for mom
and dad and the kids. Davidcame over and MICHAELA was nice to the
(38:15):
four of us. We had abeach day and it was actually cooler in
Florida than it was up here.Oh Wednesday. Yeah, yeah, it
was a beautiful day. It wasin his eighties. There was a breeze
off the ocean. It was gorgeous. Did see that? Yeah, yeah,
I mean it's not like that alot, you know, I understand,
now, I understand. Yeah,So now and down there's just so
(38:36):
much to do. So I thinkI think, you know what, I
think they do love it there andso well. The reason why I say
is that, you know, therewas an article that I just read and
they were talking about Nico was justinterviewed by The Independent, which is a
magazine that is here in the UnitedStates and also in the United Kingdom,
(38:59):
and he was interviewed about this exodusfrom New York State and why people are
leaving New York State, What arethe reasons behind it. Everybody has their
own personal I honestly believe that youand I both know that Florida is not
as reasonable as it used to beno taxes. Property taxes are going up,
especially if you're buying a house.People that are there, they're fine
(39:21):
when you get you get reassessed whenthe house is sold and you're buying down
there on the valley house, that'sexactly right. The other thing is is
that insurances are through the roof downthere. There's very few insurance companies that
do business exactly right. So you'repaying a huge premium. Did your son
take care of that with his car? He did. He actually got his
own four For David. It wasfour hundred percent more for car insurance than
(39:42):
there was. He's got a ticketthe other day. I'm like, you
better fight that because you can't haveyour insurance for three years. We're gonna
take a break and come back totalk about the bond market. The eighty
six percenters. Do you know thateighty six percent of the population has no
defined bene pension plan. For mostof us, we have to take our
life savings and create a paycheck forthe rest of our lives in retirement.
(40:06):
What is your plan for retirement incomedistribution? How you manage your assets during
the most critical years of your lifetime. Nobel Prize winning economist William Sharp has
called retirement income distribution the nastiest,hardest problem in finance. He points out
that investment uncertainty and mortality can derailthe most careful laid out retirement income plan.
Call our offices today to start theprocess of building your retirement income distribution
(40:30):
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eight zero one or RPG retire onthe web. All right, sixty one
(41:53):
degrees right now? How about that? We haven't seen that in the morning.
A long. I'll get your pizza. It is my kind of music,
some good wedding music you're playing here. I love the dance. A
matter of fact, my brother inlaws roller eyes. I get a couple
(42:13):
of refreshments in me. Julie andI are a couple of refreshments. Refresher
always. Most people consider that lemonade. But that's that's why I drink lemonade
at weddings with Tito's we have fun. Julie and I were like chuckling the
other night. We've had a lotof laughs and a lot of good times.
(42:34):
You know, you really have toenjoy the good times when you're in
them. And when the family gettogether is the weddings anniversaries, because obviously
you have all the other that arenot fun. So you really got to
when you have one of those familyget togethers or parties and just go nuts
have a blast. That's why Isay to people, you know what,
you're in retirement, go do allthe things that you want to do and
let us worry about the money becauseone event, I've seen four of our
(43:00):
loved ones die in the last sixseven months, four either family members are
made of honor. Just it's devastating. It's uh, it's very emotional.
There's times I'll just go down theroad and I can fill the tears coming
down my cheeks because of memories.Yeah, you know people I'll never talk
to John Keith, Julie's cousin,who became very close with where you know,
(43:22):
I was with him at the track. Two months later he's dead,
you know, from pick pancreatic cancer. It's just you. You just it's
a it's horrific. There's a friendof a friend, largest the largest real
estate owners in the country, youknow, billionaire with a bee pancreatic cancer.
Yeah, well good is it?Who knows what will happen this time
(43:43):
next year? You know, hehas access to everything, has more money
than anyone. And what do youdo. I wouldn't I would mention a
name to you right now in thelistening audience, and I reached out to
this gentleman. I'm not going tomention his name. Multi multi and multi
multi millionaire right lives here in theCapitol district region. I had to talk
(44:06):
to him about something. I calledhim up right, and he's in another
state. The hell you doing there? You know what's going on. He's
in for the battle of his liferight now. He's basically fighting for his
life because of a health issue.And you know, when I hung up
the phone, I'm saying to myself, this guy has got the golden goose.
(44:30):
He's got everything that you could possiblyimagine. He's got every thing that
he could possibly do for his childrenand grandchildren, and he's in this bed,
in this facility, struggling in orderto stay alive. And right now,
I guarantee if I say I didn'tmention it to him, but I
(44:50):
guarantee you he would take all ofit, push it on, you know,
like I'm all in, give memy health and you can take it
all, right, Because when you'relaying there and you're having that thought,
is this it right? I mean, I've had conversations a lot of conversations
with clients that are dying because ofthe business that I'm in. Right,
(45:12):
you must see it a lot.It's horrific. I mean, I have
to stand tall, but I'll tellyou what, when I walk out of
there sometimes I crumble, yeah,because it's you know what, memories right
right, memories on realizing who thesepeople were, what they did, how
important their life was to them.And now, you know, that's why
I'm always flabbergasted that people just youknow, who cares about the money.
(45:37):
I mean, there's not one cursethat I've seen going to the funeral parlors
or to the cemetery that has aU haul in the back of it,
right with any but all you're leavingis you know, I personally myself if
I think about my mother and myfather and my family, not thinking about
the money. Now, I'm thinkingabout the memories your five percent your father
(46:01):
died of cancer. I just thinkof, yeah, playing golf of them
and skiing and things like that,exactly. So what's going on in the
bond market. So we we've actuallyhad a nice little run in the bond
markets, which is welcome. Well, we've been waiting now for months.
It's finally it's finally happening. Youknow. Since I would say about July
(46:24):
first, right, I was goingto say then I was going to say
the end of June, We've we'vehad a really nice uh you know,
we're kind of plateaued at the momentthe last three four trading sessions. But
for the most part, we've hada really nice run, which is great,
and we're starting to see all thesethings that the Fed's been looking for.
Will you let people know what youmean by a run, run meaning
(46:45):
bond market appreciation, which means yield'scoming down. Mod's going up in value,
right, Yield's coming down correct totalreturn on a portfolio, which is
positive for you. You've been waitingfor this clipping coupons. Now it's starting
to percolate, right, and andand we we never we never imagined it
(47:07):
was it would take this long likethis has been real sticky, sticky inflation,
sticky, sticky job market. Andthe FED brought inflation down from nine
point one to maybe two point eightwherever it is right now. So they
accomplish that goal, I think prettyand if they look at real time in
terms of shelter costs, I betyou we're pretty close to two percent.
(47:28):
But they don't look at real time. They look at the They look in
the past. Uh and if youlook at so the next the next year.
The drop that they wanted to wasthe job market and unemployment, and
that last report caught them by surprisewith a four point one on the unemployment
rate. And I think the magicnumber for them if they see four point
two, that ray cut in Septemberis a shoeing. I still think I
(47:51):
almost no matter what, I'm allin that it's going to happen in September.
I believe so too. They meetthe end of this month. And
I'll tell you the reason why,because I'm a smart man. Now this
is my logic, just asking justask me, I mean, can I
get my head through that door.They don't want to have any indicator that
(48:12):
Fed's acting in any capacity for theelection. Oh so you think they're they
think they're doing in September to beout of it. Yeah, that's my
personal feel. But I think allall things point towards it too. And
and well we shall see next Friday, in a week, we get their
favorite gauge of inflation PCE, andwe're talking off air. There's a lot
(48:36):
of economic things that happened so farthis month and influence that PCE that could
be that could be a surprise figure. So finally, finally, finally,
you know rates rates were you knowseven and a half percent April sixteenth,
and now they're coming down to lowsixes on thirty year paper. My other
prediction is this, it's not goingto be twenty five BIPs, you know,
(49:00):
think so it's gonna be fifty Anddon't you think because because they know
politically they can't move after that.Yeah, And I think what they're going
to do is that I think someof this additional data that's going to come
out over the next month or so, it's going to show weak you know,
people don't realize that weakness in themarket is actually a positive for investors,
(49:21):
which sounds crazy as a bond investor, right, it's contrarian, right.
But the thing is is that Ithink what they'll say is that,
listen, you know, we're goingto have to get ahead of the curve
here a little bit. You know, we've raised pretty aggressively. Fifty BIPs
won't hurt us now, because twentyfive is nothing if you think about it,
it's like a drop in a box. Well, you know, twenty
five twenty. Usually what they dois to give you a little bit of
(49:43):
the carrot and the stick. Thenthey come back the next month or you
know, two months and then giveyou another just you know, give me
the give me the go the fifty, go to fifty, and then you're
going to see it. And Ithink, like I said, you know,
I know that a lot of ourclients that said, hey, Dave,
eve been saying that the bond market'sgoing to rally. Bonds market.
You know. Well, I've beensaying, be patient, because you know
(50:04):
what, things don't happen overnight,especially in the financial markets. It's happening.
It's start right starting to see thetrend. So since April, mid
April to now, we've actually hadsignificant moves and now now the last I
would say ten trading days have beenvery significant. So we're moving in the
right direction in terms of yields atleast. I think we need lower interest
(50:24):
rates. And everybody criticizes the Fedbecause the Fed always waits too long,
like they did in this economic environment. Well, I wanted to read.
I wanted to read a report toyou here, you're gonna stick around for
another half hour? Yeah, allright, I want it. I'll find
it at the break because we're gonnahave to break here in a minute or
so. But share some of thosedonuts, Zach won't share. Look at
(50:45):
them in there. I'm afraid towalk in these dam donuts like potato chips.
Look at him, I thought hewas trying out for the Eagles.
Don't you like his beard since hetrimmed it up? Yeah, holding me,
it looks handsome, looking very professional. Back then, I don't know
what the hell's going on here.You must be going in for the rays
on Monday. All right, yeah, I'm going on vacation. Well you
(51:10):
should keep it like that because itlooks nice. Uh. I want to
go over this with you when wecan back h fidelities in the camp that
they think that, you know,the soft landing is a possibility. I
was just about to say that we'rebig critics of the FED. They might
actually pull this off first time inever the rabbits. The rabbit's going to
come out of the hat. Weshall see. Uh. You know they
(51:32):
waited too long obviously, but nowwe definitely have that possibility. If they
don't mess this up, then startlowering when when they should. I think,
you know Gunlock, you know gunlike the bond. Yeah, you
know, he's he has good debt, he's got good information, but you're
seeing softness everywhere manufacturing the beige bookcame out this week. Unemployment, the
(51:58):
CPI, the PPI, Shipman's carrier, you name it. I drive around
in the morning. I look atreal estate because that's what I like to
do in Clearwater, because I've beendown there quite a bit recently. I
drove around Clearwater Propertiesaid Julie and Ilooked at because we're looking at properties down
there, they're all still for sale, almost every single one that we looked
at. Well, the Florida markets, because they went up one hundred percent,
(52:21):
are seeing the most pulled back atthe moment. All right, we'll
not here though, We'll see afterthe local and national news. I'm Dave
Kopek. This is a retirement planningshow live from the wgy iHeart Studios.
Welcome to the Retirement Planning Show withyour host Dave Kopek from the Retirement Planning
Group. Every week, Dave andhis team discussed the ways they can help
people make informed decisions about a widearray of retirement planning information that can support
(52:46):
you and developing a more certain financialfuture for you and your family. Now
it's time for Dave Copec, WGY'sretirement planning specialist. All right, we
(53:40):
are backing the second hour of theRetirement Planning Show. We are live in
the studio. If you'd like topartake, participate, you have a question
for Drew about mortgages, bond marketinterest rates, the we're here talk wgy
(54:05):
that's one eight hundred and eight,two, five fifty nine, forty nine
and don't forget if you would liketo participate and swing for the cure.
September twenty six will be the event. It's an all day event. We
start I think around eight am andwe get you out of there about three
four. Have a beautiful eighteen wholegolf course, beautiful dinner, prizes,
(54:29):
gifts, raffles. I'll be singing, yes, after some refreshments, I
will be dancing and my wife,and my wife will be giving me Harry
eyeballs. She'll take out that caneand yank you off the stage. Well,
(54:52):
like I said last year, wehad it. We've always had a
good time. We've always had agood time at this event, and God
has blessed us with good weather andhopefully he will again so well. September
I always think is the best month. It's uh. Julie and I are
actually going to take a few daysand go to Martha's Vineyard. Yeah,
God, I haven't been there inforever. My favorite spot really, Well,
(55:14):
that's where our kids grew up.We used to get two weeks every
year. That's where we'd go.John, Oh, good buddy of mine.
He's a professor over at Sunny Aubany. He has a house over there,
and he used to allow us rentit for two weeks. That's how
he basically paid for it. Hepaid for it by renting out the house
for years and then him that's wherehim and his wife lived now. But
(55:34):
yeah, it's my favorite spot.One of my favorite spots in the whole
world is Martha's Vineyard. It tieswith Lake George. Memory wise, it
probably goes into first place. That'swhere my kids grew up, you know
what I mean, as far asplaying and learn how to swim and all
that fun stuff. I went toNantucket maybe five six years. Well I
(55:57):
can't afford he see I'm not inyour class. Well see they don't let
me get on a boat to goto Nantucket. Call back you Martha's Vineyard,
that's it. Yeah, my buddy, he had his fiftieth so he
splurged it, took us with himand he's the guy that air from all
money. Is your buddy that hasI was gonna say that your buddy has
his own jet. No, no, he did. This guy did rent
(56:17):
a plane from all any that righttoo, Martha's vineyards. So that was
that was. It only takes aboutforty five minutes, not that far at
all. Yeah, right, sohe you know, he just wanted to
go all out for his fiftieth.Yeah, so we're lucky enough. There's
an attorney in albody that has ahome and uh out there and I can't
think of his name right now.That's what he does. He has his
own plane and he flies back andforth to the cape. So yeah,
(56:40):
pretty cool. Yeah, it's notbad. All right. We're talking about
all the stuff that affects not onlythe financial markets, but affects your pocketbook.
It's called the interest rates. What'shappening. I'm very bullish right now.
Drew and I had a conversation offthe air, and I'm extremely bullish
(57:00):
on the bond market right now.You know, I've been bullish on the
bond market for at least a year, but starting to dance a little bit
here because I'm starting to see Ithink some cracks as far as the interest
rate environment. And I think youknow, as we say, you know,
the FED is not going to allowthis economy to have major deceleration.
(57:25):
I mean, they basically want toslow it down in the inflation. But
a lot of the numbers are comingin right now that will probably show that
things are probably getting worse month overmonth. I think they've done their job,
agreed. Yea. They kind oflook at almost every aspect and you
see contraction, whether it's construction,manufacturing, shipments from overseas, the Beige
(57:50):
Book that you know a lot ofeconomists look at, uh, you name
it, it seems to be itseems to be slowing down in many many
parts. Unemployment they look at thatto a great extent. So yeah,
and you know these politicians, whetherthey love them or hate them, well,
I were right. I'm not sendingany Christmas cards out now. Well
(58:14):
you can tell you that much.They are right. People are having a
hard time with gas and groceries andthings like that. So I'm astonished.
You know. The thing is isthat God has blessed both you and I
and I'm astonished that when I seepeople in line, they have a grocery
bill. You know, for likefour or five bags of groceries, almost
(58:34):
four hundred dollars, right, youknow, it's like right now for groceries,
depending on the selection. You know, it's like a hundred bucks a
bag. You know when you're goingto you know, if you're I mean
go to the meat market. Youknow, it's like it's astonishing what they
get for a people. I wasastonished in Florida and for people that are
(58:57):
out there, I don't know thatshop on a consistent base. See,
I do a lot of shopping becauseI'm up early, you do, yeah,
I barely ever. I get mymeat at fred That's where we go.
So I go there for my meatand my fish. They got great
fish. Yeah, Tuesdays and Fridays. Fridays it's fresh from the cape.
Yep. So I got my fishthere, and I get my meat there.
I like fresh meat. Like whenI I'll go there and I'll cook
(59:19):
it that day. My wife won'tfreeze anything. Yeah, she can't deal
with that, so she'll do thesame thing. So but when I do
shop at Price Chopper, I'm amazedcold cuts. When I'm in Florida,
I just went to publics to pickup some turkey for the day that we
spent. Yeah, it was fourteendollars and sixty nine cents a pound.
(59:39):
That's crazy for sliced turkey. That'scrazy. Isn't that insane? And that's
a publics which isn't even probably agood quality like friends makes their own.
That's a whole different world. Yeah. But the thing is is that you
know, you're trying to save afew bucks, and I'm saying to myself,
you know, I, Julie andI have shopped at Sam's for years,
(01:00:00):
which I always think is the greatestvalue. You get so much more
love going there. Yeah, Imean, it's just amazing, especially if
you know your kids. Our kidsused to eat cereal like you know,
wolves, right right. I hatewhen they're always hungry. I got to
feed them. Yeah, it's justcome out the girls. As they get
older, they get better because theydon't eat as much because they're worried about
(01:00:22):
their figures. Oh yeah, thesalads and the little meals. Yeah protein.
I said to my daughter the otherday, how much chicken and lettuce
can you eat? Yeah? Youknow, all right, it's because they
watch the Kardashians. Kardashians have thebig butts, but all you see them
thing is the chicken and salads.Let us right, that's it. They're
always having salads. So if I'min a situation right now, then I'm
(01:00:45):
going to retire. Should I besitting on the sidelines for a little while?
In terms of real estate selling buyingboth, I'm I'm a big proponent.
I've been saying this for months andmonths that I'd rather be a buyer
right now because when you do seea five handle on interest rates, so
it's going to happen. So thenthe fence hitters are coming back in and
(01:01:07):
all the houses that you're trying toget or what's a thirty year piece of
paper right now? Low sixes atthe moment on a thirty year piece and
now too long ago we were sevenand a quarter seven and a half,
so you've lost almost a point onone hundred basis points. One hundred basis
points. Yeah, right and rightnow, and we're starting to see some
more inventory, which is nice.So for the biggest time, longest time,
(01:01:29):
it's been hard to find a house. That's been the biggest problem with
people want to buy real estate isthey can't find anything they like. But
at least in the capital regions,something goes on the market, it's pretty
much gone in twenty four to fortyeight hours, i'd ask, or if
not higher, if it's price right, So four to twenty four is the
tenure, Yeah, down from whatChrist five and change it was. I
(01:01:52):
mean, not too long ago.I saw a four to seventy two four
to seventy five back I would sayApril twenty ninth, So not too long
ago. So you've you've got fiftyBIPs there, right, So if they
drop it fifty, what's that tenureat I say, I say, the
next stop is four ten, fourten. Yeah, right now, it's
(01:02:15):
kind of moving sideways, but fourten is probably the next line in the
sand. If if if they canget by four seventeen on the ten ure,
then there's a big drop. Nextsupport line is actually four oh seven.
So that's that's where I think Isee things going, depending on inflation,
(01:02:35):
depending on the PCEE, depending onyou know, the unemployment. There's
a lot lot going to happen beforeyou know the FED talks again. So
pce encompasses what personal consumption expenditure iswhat it stands for, and I think
it's a fit. I don't know. The FED loves it. I don't
know if it's as if it's truedepiction of a basket of goods that the
(01:03:00):
consumer looks at. I don't.I don't know exactly what goes into that.
But the FED, for years andyears and years, loves that number.
They love it more than the CPI. They love it more than the
PPI. So you know, that'stheir favorite gauge. And that's what they
look at when they say we wantinflation at two percent. That's what they're
talking about. Yeah. So here, here's some bullet points from a report
(01:03:22):
that I get, and growing confidenceis happening with a FED rate cut,
signs that the economy is slowing butstill exhibiting sufficient vigor to sustain the expansion.
Agree with both of those. Yes, and the final one, this
(01:03:43):
is the one that I think willprobably add some positive thoughts for you and
for business people. Election thoughts witha shift in expectations for a Trump win
and group pro growth policies. Yep, don't you think like love them or
(01:04:06):
hate them or whatever. There's certainthings I understand don't understand. One thing
I do not understand is the wholeoil thing. Second day in office,
the current administration shut down the pipeline. Fuel prices. Gas prices went up.
Everything on the planet, transportation costsare involved. Fuel inflation obviously went
(01:04:30):
up high. If you get aTrump in the White House, he turns
the spickett back on the gas prices. Drop fue prices, drop inflation,
drops drill, drill, baby drill. The Alaskan pipeline. I don't know.
They shut that down the second dayof the current administration's office. It
just seems like that touches every aspectof our life. The groceries you're talking
(01:04:55):
about, they can't sell. Theycan't sell ebs. The average guy,
I can't afford an ev plus.I don't think they're good for the environment.
I don't think they're good for theenvironment. The other thing is too
okay. If I I can't rememberwho I was riding with. They just
got a car. I can't rememberwho the hell it was. They've got
a what do they call them energyit's not energy of fish, hybrid,
(01:05:18):
hybrid, that's it. Hybrid.They're getting almost forty miles to a gallon
with this really nice car. Soyou got to be kiddming. No,
like that's the that's the car tobuy, is the hybrid. I don't
think the electrics, they answer,I don't want to Maybe gas is in
it. I think that hybrid makessense me personally. At three hundred miles
or four hundred range on an electriccar, I'm not doing it. I'm
(01:05:42):
not doing it either. That mentalthat I have to worry about, which
I drive a lot in the winterand the batteries lose capacity. The other
thing is, I got a friendof mine has a Tesla. He got
in my drive. He couldn't backit up because there was like an inch
of snow on the ground. Hewas a hard time moving the car.
Oh wow, Yeah, I don'tsee it yet. I really don't.
I don't see it's good for theenvironment. I don't see if you're driving
(01:06:03):
a Tesla for three four years andwe know that those batteries have an infinite
lifespan, not infinite, a finite, and would I buy that car from
you? I'm not gonna. What'sthat car worth? So the resale value
is nothing where they dispose of thebattery. If you do some research on
it, and you spend a fewminutes and you do some research, you'll
(01:06:25):
find out, they're The saleability ofa used Tesla stinks. It's horrible,
it's horrific. The other thing istoo, is that the EV cars are
sitting all over warehouses in parking lotsbecause they can't sell them, right,
and the manufacturing, the automotive manufacturing, uh, they can only absorb this
(01:06:50):
cost for so long to facilitate abetter relationship with our friends in Washington,
right right, and they're going tosay, you know what, you're gonna
drive us out of business. Idon't understand was a GM They said,
by a certain time they're gonna haveno gas vehicles, all electric. I
don't understand that. So I thinkI think that hybrid is probably the answer.
(01:07:12):
That's where you get. I don'tknow of anybody, anybody that I
know, with maybe the exception ofone or two, that has an EV.
I don't think they're sustainable. Idon't think they're affordable. I don't
think they give you the confidence.I wouldn't go away in one of them
for an extended period of time.And the other thing is charging stations,
(01:07:34):
right, how many are out there? Right? And I got you got
hundreds of thousands of cars of revs, and you need to plug it in.
Where the hell you're going to go? I go to New York a
lot. So as we were talking, I just got my shoulder replaced four
weeks ago. So when you're goingfor your head, Yeah, that's that's
a whole nother story. You know. We gassed up in Clifton Park,
(01:07:57):
drive to New York, I havethe surgery, drive home one tank of
guess yeah, I can't do thatin electric vehicle. You can't do You
think I'm gonna pull over and chargeas you gotta. I got a shoulder
block I got I'm on narcotics,you know. I mean, I couldn't
deal with that. Meant so youhad so when you had your your surgery,
what two weeks ago, four weeksfour weeks ago, you had your
(01:08:19):
surgery, had a shoulder replacement.They did your surgery, and that day
they let you out the door togo home. They actually kept me at
night, they did. Yeah,but but most most people go home,
uh same day, like you talkedabout jul at their hip. Yeah,
go in the morning and go homeat night, unless unless you started late
(01:08:39):
in the day or have some sleepapnea issues. You know, they keep
you over night for observation, butfor the most part, you're you're in
and out same day. It's crazy. And my father used to be an
orthopedic surgeon. You get a hipdone, you're you're in the asshole for
a good week. But here,do you mind if I mentioned what it
cost you? No, No,I don't care. Did the bill?
Well, didn't cost you because youhad insurance insurance one day, one surgery,
(01:09:01):
twenty four hours, twenty four onehundred thousand dollars. Yeah. Yeah,
it's nuts, It's absolutely nuts.Julie's father went in for a stent
forty five minutes. Julie's father wentin for a stint one night, went
in the stent. Now this isyears ago before he passed. It's fifty
like fifty five thousand dollars. Yeah, And you know the thing is is
(01:09:26):
that have you been to a hospitallately as far as to visit people or
have someone admitted back in December,it's a horror story. Yeah. Yeah.
Luckily the hospital I went to isjust surgery Center, just surgery,
which was for joints, just orthopedics, so they owned surgery center, so
I wasn't with any sick people.Yeah, and it was great. But
yeah, we were in the hospitalquite a bit last December with my father
(01:09:49):
in law and not fun. No, it isn't a matter of fact,
I tell you about Kelly, she'dsit in the hallways for a day a
day, yeah, trying get abet. Yeah, don know, all
many met. Yeah. So Idon't know what's going on. I mean,
we're the greatest country on earth,but why we don't have a better
(01:10:09):
health system. I don't know ifthat's everywhere right now, Dave, whether
you go to get a hamburger oryou have to go to the emergency room
or hospital, the service everywhere it'sterrific, stinks and that's why I,
unfortunately, I think you need somesort of recession so that we get our
heads screwed on straight again. I'lltell you a real quick story which was
(01:10:30):
surprising to me. And I don'twant anybody think that this is a political
statement, because it isn't a politicalstatement. But I just want you to
this is the world that we livein today. We were at Beyond the
Sea having dinner with my wife,my son, his girlfriend Marissa, friends
of ours, and also Lisa andher husband, and we're just just a
(01:10:55):
nice night out to you have goodtime. And then my son, you
know, looked over at me andjust roll in his eyes and goes,
wow, what's going on? Hegoes, Trump was shot? Oh I'm
sorry, I said what. Hegoes, Yeah, I said Trump was
shot. And you know, thetables are close. So I looked at
a woman that was sitting next toher and her daughter and I just,
(01:11:17):
you know, I, you know, you spit it out because it was
almost like, oh my god,Trump. And I said to this woman,
I said, oh my god,I can't believe it. Trump,
Trump was just shot. You knowwhere words to me where it's about time?
Who said that? This woman sittingright next to me, not like,
oh my god or oh you know, good god. I can't believe
(01:11:40):
It's crazy talk that's crazy. Thisis the world that we live in today,
that's crazy. How about that it'sabout time? That was her response.
I just I said it out loud, and Julie said, you know,
stop, you know, don't saynothing. I said out loud,
you know, because I just couldn'tbelieve that response. I said, I
can't believe you just that. Howabout that? It's one of the reps
(01:12:03):
House of Representative Senator one of oneof the staff members tweeted something like,
too bad they missed and they shouldhave been too bad you missed luckily.
I mean she was fired on thespot. But that kind of talk is
crazy. You imagine if it wasyou imagine if it was Obama or if
it was somebody else. See,they got and he got shot. This
(01:12:25):
is this is what I don't understand. Like back back in the days you
had Democrats, Republicans. You worktogether, reach over there, you do,
you do your thing, you negotiate. I don't know when it happened,
where it became, like I'll tellyou exactly when it happened. And
this is my own personal feeling ClintonHillary right, because I don't think I
(01:12:46):
don't think Bill his administration was fairlynormal. It was after him. I
think what happened is this whole thingwith this Russia collusion, Russia Russia,
Russia guarded this whole stigma that youknow, which we all know. I
don't care if you got your headin the sand. I don't care where
(01:13:08):
you've been. It's improven that itwas basically a lie. It was used
as a tactic in order for himto be defeated in the election, and
you know, they'll talk until they'reblue in the face that there's still a
Russian connection there with Tryst, andI mean, it's it's hard to even
(01:13:30):
comprehend. I don't. I usedto watch listen before I let you finished
me. I used to watch thenews every day. You know what I
do Now? I don't watch ita well. I watch the financial stations,
and I specifically go to websites thatI can get a summary of bullet
points what's going on in the world. I don't watch the news anymore because
I can't stand I can't stand eitherside. I don't. I can't stand
(01:13:54):
politics. I'm the same way.I read a newsletter that's very unbiased in
the morning, and I watched theNBC all day long, just for the
financial except when the British opens,and then I'll then I'll watch the channel.
But but and all all of asudden, then you can debate this
all day long. But racism,I think was set aside, and now
(01:14:18):
I feel like it's back. Itis bigger than ever it is. When
did that happen? Well, wehad almost eliminated. I stay on this
radio show all the time, allright, yeah, all right, allergies
you gotta stop drinking in the morning. That's I gotta start. My son
went to CBA, okay, andI am a huge one supporter of CBA.
(01:14:41):
My son's three best friends, right, three best friends. One's black,
one's Asian, and one is hispanic. His three best friends. And
when I look at them together,I mean, I treat these kids like
my own kid. Don't tell meyou're we're because we're not a racist society.
There's always going to be bigots andidiots, right, We're always going
(01:15:04):
to have them. I don't careblack or white, green, purple,
I don't care what the hell youare. Okay, You're always going to
have idiots. We are not asociety that's racist. It is a marketing
ploy. It is a way forthem to get money money. It's a
fear. It's fear. That's exactlyhow I feel. Right, So we're
gonna stay out of politics, becauseplease, we'll politics. Know, if
(01:15:29):
you want to watch politics, turnthe volume off, mute the channel,
and look at their body language.You could tell who is full of boloney
and who's I just can't believe thatsome of the things that are being said,
And you wonder why a person wasshot. When you honestly think about
this, and you know, youKennedy. I know that they just put
(01:15:50):
a detail on Robert Kennedy Junior,which that he should have had from the
very beginning because of the history ofhis family. Some idiot there would basically
walk around like a rooster if hekilled a Kennedy, you know what I
mean. And who's he right now? He's extremely insignificant in the political doesn't
make any difference. Idiots come inall shapes and sizes, and that's that's
(01:16:12):
sad. Look at his kid,Look at his kid. Kid. I
can't wait for that Onion Town.Yeah, this kid is He's able to
work his way through with a riflein the middle of daylight and go up
on a roof. And they knewabout this kid thirty minutes before Trump put
the stage. Where's the breakdown there? It's it's insane. You know.
That's why this is going to bea movie five years. But this is
(01:16:38):
going to have you know, I'vebeen saying I've been saying it for a
long time. Turn the temperature down, right, turn the temperature down.
You know, there's a lot oftimes in our business, in the financial
services business, you have to havehard discussions with people about things that you
don't necessarily want to have discussions with. Right that situation, right, right,
(01:17:01):
you're not talking negative or you're anidiot, or you know, you
know what I mean, you're havinga very logical, discipline approach of things
that either need to change or youknow, at least my point of view,
those two parties don't have any kindof synergy at all. Zero.
I mean, how can a wholeblock of a party vote for one thing?
(01:17:23):
You're not telling me if there's notone person that this is a disagrees
with an amendment or a bill,right, one hundred percent of them,
right, it doesn't make any Theyused to all work together, and now
it's now it's so insided. Uh, it seems like nothing can get done,
which almost is a good thing.And when nothing can get done,
(01:17:45):
because then they can't spend I said, I talked last week about oligarchs.
Oligarchs are founding fathers, worried aboutoligarchs. We have so much of a
concentration of the wealth of a nationwith a handful of people. Do you
think we're there, Oh yeah,there's no doubt in my mind we're there.
Oh yeah, we see it,whether it's bezos, you go through
(01:18:06):
the whole laundry list of all ofthem, right, billions and billions and
billions, Zuckerberg and the power thathe has through it's scary, right,
It's a scary situation, right.And the thing is is that if you
don't if the public doesn't believe intheir government and the media, those are
(01:18:32):
the two big things. That's aslippery slope. Yeah, I think,
I think. I think the mediais the blame for a lot of it.
I really do, no doubt,I really do. Based of one
thing, politics, ratings, money, you know, we're number one,
(01:18:53):
right, number one? And whatthey need to be more responsible because people
people, people are getting brainwashed.If you watch a certain channel and they
have they only give you one pointof view, you eventually believe that that's
the truth. And it needs tobe. Aren't we a society that we're
bill there's supposed to be a proand econ right right objective any anytime you
(01:19:16):
debate, if you ever debated,right right, there's both sides of the
fence and you keep it civil.Right, So all right, we got
to take a break. We're goingto come back. We'll finish up.
We'll actually go back to talking aboutthe financial markets. But these are these
are very difficult times. These arevery difficult times, and I think it's
monumental. This is monumental, andI think it's going to have a huge
(01:19:36):
impact for possibly for decades, fordecades. Uh, we're here live.
You have any questions or comments oneeight w G Y one eight five fifty
nine Dave Kopek with Droiella And believeme, folks, we will go back
to talking about the financial markets.We'll see on the other side of the
break. All right, you're back. You know, you take a deep
(01:20:53):
I don't want to get into politics, but you take a deep breath.
And actually, when we talk aboutstuff like this, it actually makes give
me like anxiety because I really worryabout the future, this hostility, this
anger that's in our society today,where we should all be dancing in our
streets. I mean, I thinkabout how my grandparents had to work and
(01:21:16):
bust their tails in order to makea living and stuff in my parents and
you know, maybe that's the problem, is that there's too much of a
good thing out there. Well,I guess we'll soon find out. You
know, these comments that are madelike morning Joe got yanked because of inappropriate
comments made regarding the shooting. They'vebeen doing this for years. That's like,
(01:21:38):
why are they going there? Somebodydied the other day. Forget Trump,
forget politics. Two other guys gotThey didn't die, but they were
wounded badly. Somebody died, afather, a husband, two kids.
I mean, that's sick. That'snot real. What like people out there
(01:22:00):
saying it's fake, that really didn'thappen. It's just it's insane. It
really is insane. I'll tell youwhat. Uh, Julie and I took
a ride. Mikhaela is going toFAU which is in Boca ratan beautiful campus.
I said, hey, let's takea ride up A one a.
(01:22:23):
Have you driven that? Not?In forever? A one a is like
the mega Mega millionaire is billionaire wherethe boats are as big as the houses.
The right hand side, the housesare on the ocean. On the
left hand side, the boats areon the inner coastal right, they're yachts.
(01:22:44):
And you drive through there and yousay to yourself, how can there
be such a high concentration of wealthlike this in this world? Now,
hey, listen, I'm for youknow what, you bust your tail,
you reap the rewards. Nobody cameto Julian ires house when we were working
twenty four hour days. Nobody said, hey, listen, Dave, you
(01:23:06):
need a break. And I knowthat you and I say this all the
time. You worked as hard asI, if maybe not even harder.
You're still a hard worker. AndI'm still working seven days a week.
I love it well, I dotoo. But the thing is is that
people need to be rewarded for theeffort that they put in. Right.
But you see this wealth that's downthere, and it just blows your mind.
(01:23:30):
It's insane. Yeah, it blowsyour mind that there's this kind of
wealth out there for these types.And you think about it. What Elon
Musk took a pay package of whatfifty four billion, He's worth two hundred
and fifty billion, richest man inthe world. Yeah, I mean,
(01:23:51):
event eventually society has got to figurethis out. Because the thing is is
that and I believe this in thebottom of my heart, there is too
much of disparity, huge despair.That gap has gotten between the haves and
the haves really wide. It's muchmore so than I've ever seen in my
life really wide, right, thatthe middle class is almost I feel like
(01:24:14):
it's getting destroyed. Right. Itis like you got the super super ultra
wealthy, and then you've got peoplethat are on food stamps. My pickup
truck that I bought costs me morewhen I bought it last year than I
paid for my first house. OhI believe that, right I did.
I paid sixty nine thousand dollars formy first house. That pickup truck cost
(01:24:35):
me seventy three thousand. Yeah,right now, I understand inflation appreciation blah
blah blah and all that nonsense.But an average Joe today, And I
say average Joe because I got alot of average Joe's in my family.
Right, hard working savers. Theygo to work every single day. I'll
(01:24:56):
use my brother as an example.HVAC same makes eighty thousand dollars a year,
working six days a week. Right, Then he's got to pay for
his own health care or a goodportion of it through his employer. Then
he's got to fund his own fouroh one k. Then he's got to
pay the taxes, have a car, you know what, and do some
things that they like to do onthe side it's not a lot of money
(01:25:16):
today. You think eighty thousand dollarsa lot of money today, I think
minimum wage. Unfortunately, with thecost of goods and just living in taxes
and health insurance and all that stuffis probably one hundred grant. So what's
the answer minimum wage? So what'sthe answer. I don't know. I
mean, wages are trying to keepup well, but read the news about
(01:25:39):
California. McDonald's restaurants, which havealways been what a staple, a pillar
you want to buy a franchise.They're closing and they're closing. Why they
closing ten dollars right Hamburg? Imean you go there now, it's like
fifteen dollars for you know, abig mac. The they're closing because the
state of California, and I thinkthe minimum wage is twenty bucks an hour.
(01:26:01):
It's crazy. They can't support it. You know, it's gonna happen.
They're starting to see it. Theyhave robots, they're gonna replace cooks
and chefs. It's already have thingslike that, and that's that's what's gonna
happen. Yeah, they're gonna You'regonna these people are gonna get unplanted.
The guy that I talked to onthe airplane that had the two businesses.
That's exactly what he said. Hesaid, they already have them. It's
(01:26:24):
already in existence. And anytime Ican automate and I can put a machine
where a person, there's no Ican't come to work today. You know,
I'm I'm unhappy about my pay package. You know what, You better
pay me more money or I'm gonnaleave. You never get that coming out
of a machine. It was ittwo three weeks ago. My son was
(01:26:44):
in town. This girlfriend, she'sa vegan, so you know, it's
hard to get food. So wejust want to go real quick to Burger
Cake, get some French fries.At the drive through, no one's there,
No one's there, no one's there. Drive around. The guy opens
wind up, nobody showed up.We're closed. We can't we can't serve
you. I'm the only guy here. Where was that Burger king Clifton Park
(01:27:08):
on forty six Route night. Doyou believe that at like four o'clock in
the afternoon? Do I believe it? Absolutely? I believe is that crazy.
I've got friends of mine that arestill in that crazy restaurant business,
and I won't mention their names onthe air, but they say it all
the time. I went to abank a couple months back, what a
(01:27:29):
bank I do business with right onthis road. Couldn't go inside. The
only thing I could do is drivethrough because nobody was there except for one
person. So from a security standpoint, can't open the doors. You can't
go inside the bank because the onlyone person. It's nuts, absolutely nuts,
insanity. So I don't know.I don't know where this all ends.
(01:27:51):
I just know, you know,my short lifetime never see anything like
it. It's it's it's daunting.And when I say it's daunting, I
just find it hard to believe thatI don't. I don't know what's going
on. There's a deterioration, andthe deterioration is ultimately have an effect not
(01:28:12):
on just a few, but onall, on everybody. But like I
said, you drive down A oneA in Florida. I went from Bolca
up to Palm Beach. I actuallydrove by Trump's house. Right, that's
like a fortress right now, marA Lago, Okay, it's right on
A one a. And the thingis is that you say to yourself,
(01:28:39):
wow, Like I just can't believethat there's this kind of wealth in this
country. I mean, when Iwant to you know these I mean even
Julie was like, oh my god, like every every five seconds, Oh
my god. You know just thelook of these home drive drive down that
I was. We went through Delray, crazy pressed. Yeah, there's some
(01:29:00):
fifty sixty one hundred million dollars.Oh they're probably more than that. Now,
it's just, yeah, insanity someof what goes on there. All
right, So opportunity right now onyour side of the fence. I said
to you, I'm at the break. Are you a buyer or you a
seller? Right now? You thinkyou should be a buyer. I'm a
buyer. I'm a buyer now ifyou want to get involved in real estate,
(01:29:25):
just because we're starting to see alittle more supply come on the market,
which is good. His interest ratesdropped a little bit. But when
you start to see a five onthe interest rates and the fence hitters come
in, you could see over thenext twenty four months ten percent, you
know, So I'd rather be abuyer. You buy a house today for
three hundred thousand. In two years, you can't buy a house one thousand
(01:29:46):
no, now that the starter home. Like I went into a house the
other day. Bob Marini says,you know his his three hundred thousand dollars
house. Now it's five hundred thousand. I went to a house the other
day. Is new construction, fiveyears old, eight twenty five, twenty
six hundred square feet? What isthat? Poaching stamplot what what is that?
A square foot? About three hundredthree hundred bucks a square Yeah,
(01:30:09):
I mean you look at look atthe Adelphi. You know those condos are
New York City prices thousand dollars asquare foot, sixteen hundred yeah, sixteen
hundred square feet, sixteen hundred dollarsa square one point five one point six
million. Yeah, obviously you gotthe amenities and all that. That's where
my brother law was working. That'swhere he is working crazy money. And
(01:30:30):
he just says, it's amazing whata lot of them are doing. The
wealth that's over there buying those they'renot buying one, they're buying two,
and they're blown out the wall,out the wall, right, and they're
making it, you know, amuch bigger suite rather than just having it
as you know what traditionally what itwould have been to start to get some
of the CEOs over there. Sopeople are going to start moving in soon.
Yeah, so h that'll be that'llbe interesting. And I think forty
(01:30:54):
percent of them already sold. Yeah, but you know, there's a handful
of people at you know, Idon't know. There's a lot of wealth
out there that has been created.You know, it's a staggering figure.
I say this to people all thetime, and it you know, when
you think about it, it's anumber, but about eighty five trillion dollars
will pass in the next twenty fiveto thirty years from my generation to my
(01:31:16):
kids, right from the boomers toour children. Wow. And it's still
a shortage in your business in termsof qualified individuals. Fifty thousand people short
right now. Try and why isthat? Because people don't want to work
over It took me over a yearto find Chris McCarthy who joined us,
because you just want to bring somebodyin. You want to make sure that
(01:31:36):
it's a good fit. They gotthe right personality, They're not going to
cause problems in the office. Youknow, all the things you want a
good you want a good human being, chemistry. This is a long conversation
I had last week with the consultingfirm that I'm working with. If a
young person's out there right now that'slistening to this show, or if you
have children or people that want toget involved in the financial services industry,
(01:32:00):
get them going, because guys myage are going into the sunset right there
is these great opportunities that are goingto be presented to young people. But
the problem with my book of businessis that you got to have some gray
hair, because when you talk aboutpre and post retirement planning, it's just
(01:32:21):
not investment management. It's the fullwealth management that you have to do for
retirees. It's the estate planning,it's the long term care planning, it's
the tax planning, it's the legacyplanning. It gets comp you know,
and a lot of experience from differentscenarios playing out. I mean, I
started in the business when what wasthe dow out when you started? Do
(01:32:43):
you remember the dow was blow twothousand when I started? I can't remember.
The dow was below two thousand whenI started in eighty two. That's
crazy. What is it now?Forty? That's nuts. At a friend
of a friend, his father gavehim some Microsoft stock back in the seventies.
Yeah, decent size. Obviously,he's about a year older than me.
(01:33:05):
He's a billionaire on the Microsoft stockand that crazy that he had from
you know, fifty years ago.It's crazy with that turned it didn't marry
his sister. Guy's pretty smart.He did some things on his own of
course too, wasn't just the stock, but damn he's got a couple of
wives houses all over. That's whatthat's what we call the Lucky Genetic Club.
(01:33:28):
Yep, good jeans. Right,we got to take our final break.
When we come back, we're goingto kind of summarize some of our
social topics and also what we talkedabout financially here. But you know,
it's going to be a beautiful weekend, folks, get out and enjoy it.
Enjoy You're going to have a lotof opportunities to do a lot of
fun things. Cooperstown that's a greatexperience. I don't know if you've ever
(01:33:51):
been over there. It's beautiful.It's a great experience, especially the induction
ceremony and of course Saratoga. Anybig names Cooperstown that no, they told
me I'm gonna have to go there'sname commercial. Yeah, but you'll do
it on the commercial bet if youhave any comments, If you'd like to
participate, it's one eight hundred talkWGY, We're here live one eight one
(01:34:12):
hundred eight two five fifty nine fortynine will be right back the eighty six
percenters. Do you know that eightysix percent of the population has no defined
benefit pension plan? For most ofus, we have to take our life
savings and create a paycheck for therest of our lives in retirement. What
is your plan for retirement income distribution? How you manage your assets during the
most critical years of your lifetime.Nobel Prize winning economist William Sharp has called
(01:34:34):
retirement income distribution the nastiest, hardestproblem in finance. He points out that
investment, uncertainty, and mortality canderail the most careful laid out retirement income
plan. Call our offices today tostart the process of building a retirement income
distribution plan. After forty one yearsof being in the financial services business,
you need to start taking action tostart building your own personal retirement income distribute
(01:35:00):
plan. How do you do that? To take action? Five one eight
five eight zero one nine nine.That's five one eight, five eight zero
one nine one nine or RPG retireon the web. Don't procrastinate, motivate
to start building your retirement income distributionplan five win eight five eight zero one
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a spouse, drain your life savings, and cost stress and anxiety on your
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five eight zero one nine one nineor RPG retire on the web.
(01:35:57):
Do you look like that guy whenyou dance weezy? What you're talking about?
Weezy? The Jeffersons. You looklike George Jefferson. I used to
laugh by you and know what offthat? I love the Jefferson anytime I
see it on TV. Now Isaw that guy was believe he is he?
Whatever happened? I guy, hewas hilarious. It's probably dead.
That's good. You're going back tothe seventies, aren't you. I used
(01:36:20):
to love that show me Too's goto Tom. We actually broke the ice.
Tom, you're the first and onlycaller today. Hello, Hey Tom,
good morning, Hey, good goodmorning. Sorry to call you at
the end of the show, butI was listening. Any words of advice
(01:36:40):
I can give. My son justgraduated from PA school, accumulated around ten
thousand dollars of credit card debt.I just paid that off with the understanding
he's going to maximize his flour ohone K and get an emergency fund.
But what about he's got school debtof around and seventy thousand. I think
(01:37:03):
he should join the Guard or reservebecause he could get I think get forgiveness
on some aspect. But do youguys have any recommendations. And I'm driving
to my car, so I'll hangup and I'll listen to you on the
radio. Good show. All right, all right, brother, right,
(01:37:24):
Yeah, it's funny to say thatI just talked to a client last week
and he's in the reserve and hegets a portion of his debt forgiven every
year, and he gets a Wtwo for it and in the form almost
to pay. And there's geographic locationsin the United States that if you relocate,
They'll pay off those loans. Yougot a lot of options, Tom,
(01:37:46):
Yeah, and I think if you'rework in government for ten years,
they forgive a chunk or all.So, yeah, that's funny you say
that, Tom, because that literallyjust came up recently. I think what
you have to do is, youknow, work with a financial team and
have a chat with them. We'vegot some suggestions. My good friend of
mine has a daughter. Pa.Is that Tom again? Who is it
(01:38:14):
Ben? Ben? Morning? Ben? Yes? Am I talking. I
need to tell you it's one ofthe best shows watching these boys talk at
it at heart being a financial show. I appreciate that, Pal. Yeah,
I follow. I'll tell you thereason why you know this is Dave
Kopek and we're here with Drew.I think if we just sit and talk
(01:38:34):
numbers, I mean, you know, life has challenges and retirement has challenges,
and the thing is is that whathappens outside the financial markets will impact
the financial markets. So we haveto be aware of that. And the
thing is is that you know,we don't we don't want to just sit
here and talk numbers all day long. Your hearts right out there. I
(01:38:58):
appreciate it, Pal, I appreciatethat a bullet. Thank you, Okay,
I appreciate that. That's a verynice compliment. I missed the beginning
of what he said. He likesour show. He likes it that it's,
uh, you know, we're heartfeltconversational. Yeah, I agree.
I had a I sometimes leave hereafter doing the show with you and I
(01:39:19):
wonder, what do we talk aboutwell in terms of financial when I when
I listen to shows, because Ilisten constantly to other people that are on
radio nationally, locally, et cetera, I get bored out of my brains
when yeah, if you're going totalk about numbers, all right, let
(01:39:44):
me get a pillow so I cansnooze off, right. I sometimes I
hate when I throw out when wetalk about acronyms c P I, P
P I. Well, that's mypoint. That's why I always say to
that you have to you know,there's a lot of people we talk about
it every day, you know,the guys that work for National Grid,
the guys that you know, there'speople out there they don't talk about the
(01:40:05):
financial markets every day. Uh,you know, so sometimes I'll say when
people we talk about PCE and wetalk about inflation, and basis point.
Sometimes you have to give people clarityof exactly what we're talking about. But
the thing is is that, youknow, I don't want to sound like
an idiot this morning, but I'llsay this, and I've said it to
(01:40:27):
my children, I've said it topeople that walk in that work with me.
You have to love what you do. Oh and I sometimes this might
sound funny or crazy. I actuallylook forward to a Monday, like people
think. I'm when the wife ison the warpath. That's easier sometimes than
(01:40:51):
home. But yeah, I don't. I don't know. I don't mind
it because I'm thinking on Sunday ofall the stuff I gotta do on Monday,
and I can't wait to dig rightinto it. You know. So,
But but what did I just say? You have to have a passion,
you know, like people say,even when you're gonna retire for what
what am I gonna do? Youknow? I just baked on the beach
for one day. I couldn't waitto get the hell offic I'm like telling
(01:41:12):
magazines you could read. Yeah,I'm just sending herself, how to hell
do people do this all day long? Now? Some people love it,
they have They are very active,they volunteer, they have a certain day
basically, but that's just that couldbe a part of it. But I
just I don't know. I thoughtsomething was wrong with me, like I
don't when you talk about did youtalk about Sarasota walking in speed up?
(01:41:35):
I think there is something wrong withtrying to break real estate down so I
could buy something, But I don't. I thought something's wrong with me that
SAIDs I don't love anything that muchwhere I could do it every Like I
have a friend that plays golf everysingle day. I could not do that.
And I love golf, I loveskiing, I love tennis. I
(01:41:56):
just can't. I can't imagine doingit every single day. The thing is
is that there's also, you know, and I say this sometimes to prospective
clients, there is some advantage workingwith somebody that's been in the business as
long as I have, because whenyou think about it, I've been in
the business now for forty three years. This is my forty third year in
the financial services business, my thirtieth, and by being in the business that
(01:42:21):
long, there really isn't a lotof things as far as black Swan events,
good markets, bad markets. AndI always say to people over and
over again. You know the problemwith most people today is that they don't
have patience and they want immediate gotto have it now, got to have
it now, I got it.You know why are we down two percent?
I mean, come on, wethis goes modern technology. Jesus.
(01:42:42):
Every morning you can wake up ShieldFidelity app. Oh my god, you
could see the movements up or down. We have a guy that called the
other day. He's up seventeen percentover the last twelve months. This is
this God's on this true. AndI'm saying this because I think it's important
for people to hear this. It'sup seventeen percent over last twelve twelve.
Why am I only up seventeen Wellbecause you're in a balanced portfolio. What
(01:43:03):
do you mean by that? I'min a balance But the S and P
five hundred is up like thirty percent. Well that's great. If you want
to go up thirty percent, thenyou need to come back in here and
fill out this form again. Becauseyour form, because I pulled the formans
it says that you're a moderate balancedinvestor and you don't want to have one
hundred percent of your money allocated intothe stock market. Yeah, so why
(01:43:27):
am I up seventeen because you're notone hundred percent. You're basically comparing an
orange to an apple. Okay,we're not talking the same stuff here.
Brother. If you want to beone hundred percent in the stock market,
you want the gas pedal down tothe floor, let's go. But you
got to do me a favor.You got to come back in here,
and you got to fill out thisrisk tolerance questionnaire one more time that says
(01:43:49):
you're willing to take the ride withouta parachute. Yeah right, buckle your
chin strap, yeah right, yeah, no, I agree. I agree
when I when I actually got thebusiness, uh, it was know your
customer, yeah right, yeah,And that was a big part of it,
is doing the appropriate thing for therisk time. Well, we we've
(01:44:10):
always done one thing, and Ialways say it all over again. We
talk about this all the time.I actually had a conversation with our consulting
firm yesterday. A d t RT a d t RT even if it
hurts, always do the right thing, yeah, yep, always, always,
all right. I know you've hadyou want to sleep good at night?
(01:44:30):
Pull old planning, Yeah, yep, pull old planning makes you sleep
all right? Summarize how do peopleget ahold of you? So just go
to drewsteam dot com. That's usuallythe best way to get me is drews
team dot com. And and there'ssome things we didn't get to talk about
where you need to be really needto have your ducks in a row in
this real estate environment in terms ofgetting pre qualified, preapproved, even a
(01:44:51):
full blown commitment letter before you gobuy a house. What about a reverse
mortgage first mortgage, very simple,based on your age. You can always
assume, if you're thinking about it, forty percent of the value will be
made available to you. I gotsome packets, some pamphlets that I can
send you. I got a bunchat the office that you dropped off too.
Just want to educate yourself to start, and then we could have a
(01:45:12):
discussion. And have you found outwho is being inducted into the baseball It
is that today or tomorrow? It'sthis weekend, says nineteenth to the twenty
second. Adrian Beltray, Todd Helton, Jim Leyland, and Joe Mauer are
the highlights. That's a good bunch. Yeah. Jim Layland was the manager,
Yeah, and Joe Maher was thecatcher. Dude that would hit home
(01:45:35):
runs like crazy. Unfortunately, Ilove I love baseball. I just don't
have three hours to sit around andplay titty. You're getting better. I
think this pitch, this clock,then it has you can see a game
in two hours, two and ahalf hours. Julie and I we were
down to Tampa during the winter.We went to see the Yankee facility.
That's beautiful. Sun just went tothe Yankees Tampa a couple of weeks ago
when they were in town. It'sonly time the stadium fills when the Yankees
(01:45:59):
come. All right, we gotto say goodbye. I we can be
of assistance. It's five one eightfive eight zero one nine one nine five
one eight five eight zero one nineone nine, God blessed, be safe
and we'll see you next week.Thank you for listening to the Retirement Planning
Show hosted by Dave Kopek, wg Wise retirement planning Specialist. If you
would like to talk with Dane orsomeone at the Retirement Planning Group, call
(01:46:21):
five one eight five eight zero onenine one nine. That's five one eight
five eight zero one nine one nineduring business hours, or visit rpg retire
dot com. Their Retirement Planning Grouphas five convenient offices located in Albany,
Maltsa, Glens Falls, Syracuse,and Oneana. Tune in again next week
(01:46:43):
for retirement planning strategies with Dave Kopekright here on WGY's Retirement Planning Show.
The information our services discussed on thisshow is for informational purposes only and is
not intended to be personal financial advice. The investments and services offered by US
may not be suitable for all investors. If you have any doubts as to
the merits of an investment, youshould seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
Live from the w g y iHeartStudios. Welcome to the Retirement Planning Show
with your host Dave Kopek from theRetirement Planning Group. Every week, Dave
and his team discussed the ways theycan help people make informed decisions about a
wide array of retirement planning information thatcan support you and developing a more certain
financial future for you and your family. Now it's time for Dave Gobec WGY's
(00:25):
retirement planning Specialist. You like itall right? That doesn't get you moving,
(01:25):
nothing worse. That's track music.Let's get to the track. T
g I F Friday night. Justgot paid, Just got paid. Let's
go out and have some fun.I want to hear my twelve hour story
from traveling on an airplane from hE Double hockey Sticks. Oh no,
(01:49):
yeah, yesterday with the outage andall the no no no. I started
yesterday was Monday. I started onSunday. No. I don't know what
dated anymore. That's wrong with me. I've been trying to figure that out
for thirty years. Thursday, Thursday, we left Florida, Punta Gorda direct
(02:16):
flight Albini. Got there, startedat eleven am. Didn't get home until
almost midnight direct flight. Oh yeah, it sounds like a direct flight t
ended up in Boise. I don'tknow how anybody deals with anybody that has
to work and that has to flya lot. My son would fly out
(02:38):
every Monday and Friday, every singleweek for a year and a half.
Hated it. Did you see thepeople yesterday standing in line alta for American
But the thing is is that lightningwas unbelievable? Oh weather related? Then
well, sit tight, I gotDaddy's had a story for you. Then,
(03:05):
you know, because Ponta Gorda doesnot have the stairs that attach to
the airplane whatever you call it,the one that's enclosed right, it's outside,
right, So every time a lightningstrikes, what happens fifteen minutes,
no kidding. So if you getlike a whole bunch of lightning strikes right,
(03:27):
which Florida right now is happening becauseit's that time of year, you're
you know what is not getting ona plane right. So we sat sat,
sad, sad, sad, sadsad. So then they said,
okay, it's all clear, let'sgo. So we finally get ready to
go. Everybody gets on the plane. This kid gets on the plane that
was totally drugged out, couldn't evencouldn't even function bad fire or otherwise fetnol.
(03:54):
Oh boy, oh boy. Ihad to take him off the plane.
And because it was drug related,everybody that was on the plane and
all the baggage and all your contents, how to get back off the plane
because it was drug related, Iguess so. Oh no, I've been
in that situation. Everybody's off.Now they got to do a sweep of
(04:18):
the plane, and all of ourbags have to get rescanned with the dogs.
Ye. So now we're back onthe plane and guess what happens.
It's lightning again. Oh my,So you can't go on the plane all
right? And guess what they losttheir computer systems. Oh by the way,
(04:43):
oh by the way. So nowyou got to do it manually by
a piece of favor. Show yourlicense where you know how, you just
scan it you get on the plane, all right. So we were supposed
to be home, just you oryou and Julie, I mean the boss,
Oh boy, Julie. So tomake a long story short, we
got home around midnight for a twelvehour trip, and sounds like I got
(05:10):
up and got going had a bunchof meetings on Friday that I had to
go to, and last night Iwas like, sounds like Gilligan's Island.
Last night we went out to dinnerat Mario's and Lake George had a wonderful
dinner, and I'm like in thechair, I can't even My head is
like falling down on my chest.You know what you go through, that
acceleration, that stress that you know. So it's been really quite the week
(05:35):
be Florida. My daughter's going toFAU. Spent some time in Boca with
her, nice and beautiful campus,met some wonderful people. Who's your daughter
with you? Yes? Oh,so it was the three of you?
Yes, oh, yes, Oh. That's actually a good thing that you're
all together. Otherwise you'd be losingyour mind. And some people were getting
(05:59):
very agitated and they were saying badwords to the people that were running the
plane. So it was not afun situation. But we're very happy with
FAU. We spent a lot oftime down there. We're getting some office
space down there. As I've toldyou, Florida is booming. The three
(06:19):
seas? What are the three seasof Florida? Clut cut clarity and carrot
construction, cranes, concrete, that'sall you say. Constant all over the
place, everywhere you go. You'rea hand seventy five and you're going to
(06:39):
Ellanton where the outlets are. You'regoing over the bridge towards Sarasota. There
must be twenty cranes there doing thebridge. But it's good to be back.
It's good to be back. It'sgood to be here in upstate New
York. We are going to have, I think, by the looks of
it, a beautiful weekend. Theweather, you guys had some bad weather.
(07:02):
When I was it was ninety fivedegrees on Wednesday? Is that the
day that the tornadoes were touching down? It could have been Tuesday. Tuesday
went one of those days. Itwas bad. Yeah, Tuesday Wednesdays.
There was a lot of destruction upand we're lucky we just Edwards Range.
Least of who lives in South Glen'sFalls told me up in that area there
(07:24):
was I guess Glenn's Falls had toshut down. They had an emergency up
there. So you know, thingscan be replaced, lives can't. So
as long as you made it through, everything is fine. All right.
We got a lot of information tocover. First and foremost, don't forget
about our golf outing. We've hada lot of people call about it.
(07:45):
It's September twenty six, Swing fora Cure. All the money will go
to the American Cancer Society. It'san honor of our native honor and our
wedding. Kelly Pristina, a wonderful, wonderful girl that couldn't beat this horrific
disease. Passed away at age fiftyeight just to peach. Just a wonderful,
(08:11):
wonderful person. So we're gonna havea This is going to be a
special one for me in a lotof ways because it's an honor of Kelly.
But we're getting a lot of ourstrategic partners. I know that Drew
is going to step up. Whatyou got, You got what you got
about twenty five thousand you're going todonate this year. You think, I
think I already wired in the jury. If you don't know, that's Droyella.
(08:31):
He's going to be here with methis morning for a while. You
can you can leave whenever you wantto leave, So I usually have you
ad for an hour, but ifyou want to stick around, yeah,
whenever you get the text from yourwife get home. One of the good
news is her whole family's at herhouse. Sleep. They'll probably sleep,
but they won't even know I laughedand came back. It's even perfect.
(08:52):
That's perfect. So if you wantto attend the golf outing, it's pretty
easy to call our office at fiveeight five eight zero one nine one nine.
I'd love to have you attend.We have a lot of gifts prizes.
Hole in one you'll win a carfrom our good friends at Leah Motor
Group. They are wonderful people,Billy Bob, Billy Bob, and Vinnie
(09:15):
and Michael, Michael and Deborah.Can't forget the sister Deborah. Uh.
They're just a wonderful family. Verytight family, very tight. All lot
of love in that family, tellyou that much. So we're going to
be talking about a lot of stuff. And I'm going to start off with
this because I know I'm going toDrew is in the mortgage industry. He
(09:37):
was in the investment banking business foryears before he got into the mortgage industry.
Tel Burnham Lambert. That goes back. I'll tell you what, Mike
Milkin, but that goes back.Yeah, they went from the most profitable
firm to add a business in twelvemonths. And it's called one word leverage.
Yep, junk bond king leverage.You know, some of these derivatives
(10:01):
were one hundred to one, onehundred to one. You know, it's
it's hard for the common man tounderstand exactly what was going on in Wall
Street. But there's you know thoseHopefully those days will never come back again.
I don't think they will because ofthe bumpers and the guide guide rails,
(10:22):
the guardrails. I think in eightyeight, if I remember when I
started, he made more money himselfthan the entire firm made. Probably.
Yeah, they didn't even know whatjunk bond zora back then. Yeah,
except for him. Look at BillGross, he's another one. Yeah,
Pimco, Pimco, he's another one. But I got to ask you a
(10:45):
question, because Drew is assist ourclients for mortgages. I have got another
lead for you too, another clientthat's looking to do some real estate in
Florida. But here's here's I questionto you. We talked about this a
couple few weeks ago, last timeyou're on. I had a woman.
I do have a woman that's aclin of Mars that owns a horse farm
(11:09):
right right in Florida, and shehas a property that has appreciated unbelievably since
she's been down there in this horsefarm. She needs to make some modifications
and adjustments. And you know,the type of equipment that she's looking for
(11:30):
is not inexpensive, like a brandnew pickup truck that has the big wheels
in the back, two wheels insteadof dullis Duley's. She needs a dually
and she needs a new trailer forher horses. So I said, you
know what, why don't you lookat a reverse mortgage with Drew because you
can take some of that equity thatyou're sitting on in the house, and
(11:52):
you can live some of the dreamsthat you're hoping for and you never have
to pay it back. So whathappened? She quiet? She did not
she has not called you yet yet, because she called the office and said
she was going to call you.Yeah, I think, or are you
out to me to see if Ihad heard from her? Are you playing
telephone tech? No? No,I haven't received the call from her yet.
(12:15):
Okay, Well I got to getout of that. I thought she
had reached out to you because Igot a message this week that she was
going to reach out to you whenI was down in Florida. That's the
only way to turn that spickett onin terms of accessing the equity in your
home turn into income or resource forthat happened to create another payment for yourself.
You know, I've had people sayto me and they come into the
(12:35):
office. You know, I've heardyou on the radio show talking about reverse
mortgages. Why are you such anadvocate for reverse mortgages? And seeing that
you say on the radio that youdon't get any compensation. Because I'm a
big believer in living your life.You know, if you're wishing and hoping
for something and you're sitting on thisnest egg and there's no desire for legacy
or transfer of wealth, why wouldn'tyou dig into that pot of gold that
(12:58):
you're sitting right sitting on? Isthere? Does that make sense? One
hundred percent? And like you've alwayssaid, it's not for everybody, it's
all tame situations. It makes alot of sense full tax free, tax
free because you're just accessing your ownequity in your house, right just like
if you did a refinance on yourhouse, you pull out fifty one hundred
thousand dollars, it's yours without anytax cons Let me ask you a question
just out of curiosity. If Iif you it's just safe for me.
(13:22):
If I did a home equity orreverse mortgage in my house and I use
it basically as a checking account,and you know, I know how what
my limit was, and I wantedto pay it back. If I wanted
to pay it back, you knowI'd pay it back. Could I start
like with zero, take two hundredthousand, and then pay the two hundred
thousand dollars back? Totally? Yeah. So if I'm a speculator, my
(13:46):
son's in real estate in Florida.Now, let's say I wanted to help
them, right, this is hypothetical, wink wink. But let's say I
wanted to help them and I'm sittingon a lot of equity here in my
home and New York. What wouldbe the disadvantage of doing that? I
mean, as long as he paysme back. I mean he's he's in
(14:09):
with working with a company right now, David that does rehab, right,
he buy flips, They buy flips, yep, right, or they keep
them from themselves, keep them,rent them for the cash flow. That's
exactly what they do. That's thebusiness. That's the business that he's in,
and they're killing they're killing it.They're killing it. The only negative
I would take in that situation.Yeah, I'm comparing it to a traditional
(14:33):
home makeue lianta credit versus a reportverse. Uh, the reverse just has
to be in a first lean position. But I get I'm getting tax free
money, right, But I'm alsoI mean, because of my age,
I'm also probably giving some pretty goodleverage with that equity because of my age,
right, not sixty two, I'msixty eight, right, So you
(14:54):
can probably access about forty percent ofthe value of your home obviously the closing
costs on a reverse mortgage, oryou could do a home equi line of
credit no closing costs and get toeighty percent of the value of your home.
So there's pros and cons of eachone. You have to pay back
and when you don't. Right,But the equity line of credit is not
(15:15):
going to give me as favorable taxposition, would it? You fall right
from a taxes You can't write itoften nowadays exactly right, correct, you
can't. You can't write off theinterest. Aren't you amazed? But the
aren't you amazed by? That's prettygood because that that's been around for like
five years, Zach, he's applottingme look at that. I think we
(15:39):
should drop the mic that. DamnNo, seriously, I mean I think
a lot more going on between thoseyears that we I mean, Mike,
both both of my sons love realestate. They like to be involved in
it. Chris's best friend Lorenzo,Yeah, is uh, you know,
it's a lot of properties and alot of properties now. So the thing
(16:00):
is is that what I'm trying tofigure out is you know, you know,
how how can I take some ofmy dead money or our listeners that
might have children that want to speculatea little bit. I mean, what's
the thing is is that if Iif I have the first lean on the
property, I mean, I'm buyingthe property cash raight right, I'm cashing
(16:25):
out right. There's not gonna beany I mean, these are properties that
you're gonna you're gonna have to probablyget some they're they're they're sold as is
as it, so there's issues.They gotta be cash or right, So
you got to go in. Yougot to know what you're doing. You
gotta make sure your team has thecapability of doing it right right. But
believe it or not, I thinkthere's a lot of opportunities for this here
(16:47):
in this region. In this region, Oh yeah, I see it all
the time. I was reading somethingthis morning about some of the best markets
in the country, and Tampa keptcoming up quite a bit in the top
searches for ford A Bill, isyour son going to stay in Tampa?
I think I'll stay in that TampaSarasota area. He's got a serious girlfriend
on Tampa and her parents live inSarasota, and it's just in Sarasota Tuesday.
(17:15):
Yep, my daughter as a seriousboyfriend her parents. His parents are
building a house in Sarasota. Socoincidental, So seems like both might end
up in Florida, but obviously toosoon to tell. So I was going
to venture down I think this winterand kind of everybody loves sarasotable my new
(17:36):
best friend. Yep, walking intown in my speed out, it's gonna
be fun. Going to make asplash. Don't do that. They'll be
chasing out of town. All right, We'll be right back the eighty six
percenters. Do you know that eightysix percent of the population has no defined
benefit pension plan. For most ofus, we have to take our life
savings and create a paycheck for therest of our lives in retirement. What
(17:59):
is your plan for retirement income distribution? How you manage your assets during the
most critical years of your lifetime.Nobel Prize winning economist William Sharp has called
retirement income distribution the nastiest, hardestproblem in finance. He points out that
investment, uncertainty and mortality can derailthe most careful laid out retirement income plan.
Call our offices today to start theprocess of building a retirement income distribution
(18:23):
plan. After forty one years ofbeing in the financial services business, you
need to start taking action to startbuilding your own personal retirement income distribution plan.
How do you do that? Totake action? Five one eight five
eight zero one nine one nine.That's five one eight, five eight zero
one nine one nine or RPG retireon the web. Don't procrastinate, motivate
(18:45):
to start building your retirement income distributionplan five one eight five eight zero one
nine one nine. If you haveany questions, please call in now at
one eight hundred eight two five fiftynine forty nine. That's one eight hundred
talk WGY one eight hundred talk wgee. Why we are live in studio
to answer your questions. I loveit. I love your sol all right,
(19:30):
we are back. Good morning,get up going, It'll be a
gorgeous stay in upstate. This thisis this is why you live here for
the next like seven weeks. Eightythree, eighty three, eighty five.
(19:51):
No humane last night. Last night, Uh, we're outside on the patio
and actually put put the outdoor fireplacewas a little chili. Yeah great.
As matter of fact, I gota well, you know, I get
up. I was up at fouro'clock, set on my deck up on
Lake George, and I was justsaying to myself, God, it's gorgeous
out right now, you know,beautiful, this is the time. Beautiful.
(20:11):
A lot of people be in town. Matter of fact, when I
flew up, Julian Mikhaela sat ina separate section of the plane where I
was. We couldn't get three seatstogether. So if you were in first
class, you put them back,put them back by the toilet there at
the back of the plane. Youknow, might sit there honey, no,
(20:33):
you go right ahead. St Idon't know what to tell you things
this Microsoft thing. Put your guysback there. Me in first. I
can't explain it, but a lotof the people on the plane were coming
to this area for two things.Saratoga, right, and a lot of
people don't realize that, you know, if you're not a sports fan.
This is the weekend the induction intothe Hall of Fame for horsing, for
(20:59):
horse racing. Oh, Cooperstown,that's this weekend. That's this weekend.
And the guy that sat next tome, him and his wife. She
was a retired detective for a policedepartment in Florida, and real nice people,
really nice people. I got talkingto him. But they're staying at
the ODA. Saga. Oh that'snice. That's like the rich Carlton of
(21:22):
Cooperstown. Yeah, they're staying there. She's originally from Detroit and somebody from
Detroit. I can't think who itis, Zach, Zach will look it
up. We'll have to do alittle uh pretty. I mean, but
you've got people on the plane thatare excited to be here. I mean,
we take the stuff for granted becausewe live here. The beauty of
Saratoga Springs. And also, youknow, you got the Baseball Hall of
(21:44):
Fame, which some people would youknow, pull their teeth out to visit.
How many times did you go therewhen their kids were young? Twice,
I think Julie and I are therewere twice with the boys. We
had birthday parties there. Oh yeah, it's crazy, all right, So
we're gonna go over. We're gonnawait until the break caare because we're gonn
have to break in a couple ofminutes. So the thing is reverse worrigages
(22:06):
can be utilized. It's a toolin the toolbox. It doesn't necessarily have
to be for income purposes. Itcould be for legacy transfer of wealth,
healthcare excuse me, or basically apot of money to facilitate opportunities for loved
(22:29):
ones, relatives, children, etcetera. Agreed, it's a simplify it.
It can be used for anything,literally anything. They would never in
a million years want you to takeit out and throw it in the stock
market or insurance products. Well,we can't do that, it's against the
law. But you could use itto go on vacation. You can use
it to renovate your house. Youcan use it to pay down debt and
(22:51):
consolidate debt, credit cards, byreal estate, all that anything. Obviously,
I mean they just highly frown upontaking that money and try to,
you know, roll it into somesort of investment, because well, there
was at one points, and I'mnot even too sure how it stands now,
Uh, there was a ruling thatyou know, don't be talking about
(23:12):
buying life insurance and investments with themoney that you're pulling out of you know,
reverse mortgages for your home. Correct, you know, but you know,
there was a whole thing back thenwhere people would talk about lost opportunity
cost You can get in big dodoo if they find you doing that in
(23:32):
your business, right, you mightyou might be walking around at Sarasota with
your speed at in shackles. Yeah, your head, that's the one now
cuffed, that's the one. No, no, ye. Other than that,
you literally could use it for anypurpose that you see. You put
your grandkids or kids through college,you name it. As long as you
(23:56):
can afford the taxes and insurance andthe up keep on the house, that's
the big That's really all they careabout in terms of qualifying. Yeah,
all right, well we'll talk alittle bit more about that. That was
a quick half hour basically talking abouta lot of mumbo jumbo. We didn't
really talk about a lot of financialstuff. But we are the Retirement Planning
Group. We have a lot oflocations now we have five locations in New
(24:17):
York. Oh wonderful graduation. Yeah, And if you like to sit down
with us, we would love tohave the opportunity. We are going to
have some exciting news. There's alot of really good stuff going on behind
the scenes with the Retirement Planning Groupright now. We are growing, we
are expanding, and that's leading tosome additional opportunities that we'll talk about in
(24:40):
the very near future. But I'mvery proud of my team. Can't tell
you enough about how proud I amthe team and what they do and how
they take care of our clients.So if you're looking for a team and
emphasize team, give us a callif you'd like to sit down five eight
five eight zero one nine one nine, check us out on the web pg
(25:00):
retire dot com. And when wecame back, we're gonna be talking a
little bit about the financial markets,what's going on in the interest rate environment,
our FED Chairman Powell and our CrystalBlaw what we think is gonna happen
over the next four to five months, we'll be right back. This guy's
(25:49):
gotta crazy. Well, i'll tellyou what, it's a good thing people
can't see us live, Thank theLord above, especially after that move there.
Please please, you didn't think Ihad those moves. I didn't think
ye had speed alive. The visualof this audience just is just I can
I can hear them driving off theruds. Everybody's pulling over. Yeah,
(26:15):
you know, so at one point, at one point I thought about doing
the show live from different locations.We actually talked about this at the radio
station, like once or twice amonth, we'd go out to different locations
and do the show live, whichI was pretty fun. Well, yeah,
I thought it was kind of agood idea, you know, kind
of integrate the public into a littlebit. And we're still talking about we
(26:36):
might we might do it, youknow, a few times a year,
doing lobbies of hotels and places likethat. That'd be fun. Go up
to the track. Yeah, youknow, VanderBurg used to do it all
the time. Oh yeah, Ithink he still does, still does.
I think he goes train station,post O TV and all that pols on
it for years. All right,Yeah, as everybody knows what's on's to
(27:00):
everybody what you do? Yes,So my name is Drew Iello, the
branch manager with Fairway Independent Mortgage inClifton Park, license in all fifty states,
and we do forward mortgages, reversemortgages, construction loans, renovation loans,
USCA, V A, FHA,you name it, pretty much anything
(27:22):
regarding mortgages. We do. Whatare the what is the baseline now for
mortgages? Do personal and also ifyou want to invest investment properties, what's
the percentage of ask? Is thereany sweet spots? So I would say
if you're if you're buying a homeas a primary residence. In terms of
(27:45):
down payment, this is a bigmisconception because the media always gets it wrong.
You can buy a house with aslittle as three percent down for the
average person, unless you're a veteran. How much three percent down on a
primary residence, five percent down ifit's a multifamily, three percent down if
it's a single family. Veterans,they don't even need a down pay.
(28:07):
USDA they don't need a down paymenteither, zero down. So those are
the traditional mortgages that are out there. You know, in terms of buying
investment property, it's a whole differentanimal. You know, two three,
four family, you need twenty fivepercent down. I'm chocked by that because
I don't understand that, because youwould think a multi unit would could be
more there would be more safety tothe lender than a single family. This
(28:33):
is the other thing too, though, right, because there's income. But
they think, all right, DaveCopek has this primary residence and investment property
multi family. Something happens that DaveKopek, he's given up paying the mortgage
on the multi family versus his primaryresidence. So they look at it that
way. And the marketability of multifamilyis a smaller piece of the pie than
(28:55):
primary owner occupied. So from arisk standpoint, you pay out a point
higher and an interest rate and youneed a bigger down payment. What I'm
noticing even in Florida, my sonis in Tampa, which I was over
there the other day before he flewout, or tried to fly out,
try to fly out, but earlyin the morning we're in Tampa. He's
(29:18):
on West Kennedy, which is overby the airport. He's in a beautiful
building. I bet you she's nottoo far from Colby. Probably not,
because I know Kolby is about eightten minutes from the airport. Yeah,
that's exactly where David is. He'sin up up Midtown. Yeah, that
is where are my son. Theymight be in the same building. He's
in, the Regis Building R.E. G Us. It's a beautiful
(29:38):
brown, brown and glass building.It's a beautiful building. But it's on
West Kennedy. A lot of constructionthere. And uh, but commercial real
estate, even in Florida right now, is having issues. Now. We're
working with a company right now,consulting firm that's my in size, you
(30:00):
know, as far as some strategicrelationships that we're trying to work out.
Every single one of their employees worksfrom home, no kidding, So when
we work, when we have meetingswith these people, all zoom, it's
all zoom. Well it's ring centralwe use, no kidding, ring Central
(30:21):
or zoom. I guess those arethe two options. And the reason why
I asked this because I'm not toosure if your ears to the ground on
this, because you hear about there'sopportunities now commercial real estate as far as
conversion, oh right, conversion right, No more office, but the opportunity
to turn it into apartments, etcetera. Right, I would think they
(30:47):
have to repurpose that. This wasthe year twenty twenty four not supposed to
be good for a commercial real estate. But I haven't heard this bloodbath yet,
have you? No? I havenot, which is which is kind
of amazing, because we're obviously morethan halfway through the year. I did
hear. Obviously bank corporate bankruptcies areup astronomically compared to last year. So
(31:07):
we're starting to see the dominoes.But that has to do with the interest
rate, interest rates, death service, that's it's death service, right,
And and you know we talked offthe air. I think we're starting to
finally see, uh, some cracksand this all this is starting to play
out. Look at unemployment claims,the extended unemployment claims, We look at
(31:30):
the unemployment rate just by itself.It was a kind of a surprise a
couple of weeks ago we hit fourpoint one. I think, in my
head, if we hit four pointtwo, that's not a realistic number.
On No, the real number isthe U six. Right, is every
talking absolutely right? Yeah? Andthat's what you're finding sometimes when you see
(31:51):
these really good job reports, ifyou dig deep and look at that U
six report, which is the realnumber, you're finding most of those jobs
are people getting second and third jobs. Well, here here's the boogeyman in
the closet where what I would callthe droiela. I love coming on the
show. This is the problem,right, I just came back from Florida.
(32:16):
I don't care where you go.Nobody can get help now, nobody,
nobody, I mean, people arebegging for help. Still still qualified
people that show up for work,that want to work, that stay.
(32:37):
I mean, I can't tell youhow many conversations that I've had with business
people that still are being stressed outhigh anxiety because they can't find enough competent
people. And I have guess intown, and one of them is in
the same field that you're in,relative at leases, and he thinks it's
the generation where people come they interview, Uh, nobody wants to work even
(33:04):
when they do get hired. Hefinds that he goes through them like toilet
paper. Tell you that the guy, the guy that sat next to me
on the airplane was a retiree.He had two businesses here in New York
State. Two Well mention his name, you would recognize his name, uh,
(33:24):
And he just said about three yearsago, he said, that's it.
I'm not dealing with this anymore.They wouldn't show up for work.
They'd start work. When to wherethey are at the coffee shop during working
hours? Are they here? Youknow? Are they going to show up?
And he just said it was justso frustrating that, you know,
(33:44):
he got a knock in the doorand guy wanted to buy both of his
businesses and he said, sure,yep, I'm out of here, and
he did three years ago. Itgot worse, right, and he said
that, you know, he talksto the guy that purchased his business and
it's worse than it was when hehad the business. I don't understand it.
And maybe if somebody has an answerto this. Uh. You know,
(34:05):
I've heard that we've spoiled our kids, right the helicopter moms, the
helicopter mom and dads. We putthem in a position where, you know,
this is not true for all kids, because I've seen a lot of
kids that are just like you know, your kid, my kid. I
mean, I'm very proud of myboys and my daughter. They're very hard
workers, you know what I mean. And my wife probably comes from my
(34:28):
wife, you know, I youknow, I you notice I added my
wife and of course because she's listening. But yeah, But the thing is
is that I don't know what itis. It's uh, you know they
say that the what is it?Generation? Z? What the hell's generation
is it that we're eighteen to youknow, like the thirty four? Yeah?
What is that? What do theyclassify that as? Whatever? That
(34:50):
generation is almost a millennium now,it's it's after millennials, all you Zach.
Right now, I'm thirty five,so you're just over it by a
year. You're working seven days aweek right now, I am right as
a millennial, right as a millennial. So whatever is below you? And
that's not normal, No, itisn't. That's not normal. And I
(35:14):
don't know what happens. You know, they're living at homes, they don't
have to worry about paying rent.I'm not sure that psychology because that demographic
where you say they need help everywhereeighteen to thirty six males, they're like
fifteen million of them not working.I go to Mario's up in Lake George
all the time because I love I'veknown Nancy and Paul for decades. Hard
(35:37):
to believe fifty years. I've knownhim for fifty years. They are wonderful
people, wonderful people. We werethere last night. Paul has been looking
for a cook for over a year. Pays well flexibility, time off.
(35:58):
He can't find a cook. Whatthough, it's coming? What's coming?
I think the the economy is gettingsoft, and people that are not working
trying to find jobs are having ahard time, you know, if they
get laid off or fired. Ithink they're having a hard time getting jobs.
(36:19):
So corporate, corporate is changing.I don't know about their leisure and
hospitality, but even that last unemploymentreport, the leisure in hospitality was way
down in terms of new jobs.You might have peaked out. Your mom
and your sister are living in Florida. Both sisters and mother. Oh both
are down there. Yeah, Jupiterand Tampa. Oh. I didn't realize
that. Okay. So here's thequestion I have for you, because I
(36:42):
was thinking about this in the wayhere today. How has their quality of
life changed in like the last threeto five years. Are they still happy
in Florida? With the influx ofpeople and the pressure and the traffic,
and they are, yeah, Ithink, I mean from what they tell
me, they are. My oldersister's been there maybe ten years now,
and a sweet spot and Jupiter andobviously when they bought versus what real estate
(37:08):
is now huge. It's like,you know, two three times they bought.
Absolutely yeah, and my sister,younger sister up in Tampa. Everything
in Tampa is new in the lastthree years. Everything, right, I
mean that whole city is brand new. I'm just there, you know,
I just spent a day and ahalf there. We actually stayed at a
(37:29):
condo on Clearwater Beach and everything onClearwater Beach is brand new. Everything's new.
We stayed at the end. Veryfew facilities or the older buildings.
Right, you go from the bridge, the Sankee Bridge, yep, to
North clear Water. Yeah, thewhole waterfront's new. Everything pretty much so
(37:51):
as so far, Yeah, theylove it. They love it. Obviously
this time of year, this istheir winter. Everybody's indoors. It's super
hot and can't even go to thebeach and you know, no way to
get cold, and I don't.I'll tell you what Julie and I were
at the beach on Wednesday because wehad a down one down day for mom
and dad and the kids. Davidcame over and MICHAELA was nice to the
(38:15):
four of us. We had abeach day and it was actually cooler in
Florida than it was up here.Oh Wednesday. Yeah, yeah, it
was a beautiful day. It wasin his eighties. There was a breeze
off the ocean. It was gorgeous. Did see that? Yeah, yeah,
I mean it's not like that alot, you know, I understand,
now, I understand. Yeah,So now and down there's just so
(38:36):
much to do. So I thinkI think, you know what, I
think they do love it there andso well. The reason why I say
is that, you know, therewas an article that I just read and
they were talking about Nico was justinterviewed by The Independent, which is a
magazine that is here in the UnitedStates and also in the United Kingdom,
(38:59):
and he was interviewed about this exodusfrom New York State and why people are
leaving New York State, What arethe reasons behind it. Everybody has their
own personal I honestly believe that youand I both know that Florida is not
as reasonable as it used to beno taxes. Property taxes are going up,
especially if you're buying a house.People that are there, they're fine
(39:21):
when you get you get reassessed whenthe house is sold and you're buying down
there on the valley house, that'sexactly right. The other thing is is
that insurances are through the roof downthere. There's very few insurance companies that
do business exactly right. So you'repaying a huge premium. Did your son
take care of that with his car? He did. He actually got his
own four For David. It wasfour hundred percent more for car insurance than
(39:42):
there was. He's got a ticketthe other day. I'm like, you
better fight that because you can't haveyour insurance for three years. We're gonna
take a break and come back totalk about the bond market. The eighty
six percenters. Do you know thateighty six percent of the population has no
defined bene pension plan. For mostof us, we have to take our
life savings and create a paycheck forthe rest of our lives in retirement.
(40:06):
What is your plan for retirement incomedistribution? How you manage your assets during
the most critical years of your lifetime. Nobel Prize winning economist William Sharp has
called retirement income distribution the nastiest,hardest problem in finance. He points out
that investment uncertainty and mortality can derailthe most careful laid out retirement income plan.
Call our offices today to start theprocess of building your retirement income distribution
(40:30):
plan. After forty one years ofbeing in the financial services business, you
need to start taking action to startbuilding your own personal retirement income distribution plan.
How do you do that? Totake action five one eight, five
eight zero one nine nine. That'sfive one eight, five eight zero one
nine one nine or RPG retire onthe web. Don't procrastinate, motivate to
(40:51):
start building your retirement income distribution planfive win eight five eight zero one nine
one nine. The greatest risk inretirement most of us have no plan for
We're insurance to cover the expense.A long term CARA event can impoverish a
spouse, drain your life savings,and cost stress and anxiety on your family.
What is your plan and how willyou pay for a long term caravent?
(41:12):
Call the retirement planning group today.Discuss options you should consider to protect
your estate and have choices and independence. Take action call today five eight five
eight zero one or RPG retire onthe web. All right, sixty one
(41:53):
degrees right now? How about that? We haven't seen that in the morning.
A long. I'll get your pizza. It is my kind of music,
some good wedding music you're playing here. I love the dance. A
matter of fact, my brother inlaws roller eyes. I get a couple
(42:13):
of refreshments in me. Julie andI are a couple of refreshments. Refresher
always. Most people consider that lemonade. But that's that's why I drink lemonade
at weddings with Tito's we have fun. Julie and I were like chuckling the
other night. We've had a lotof laughs and a lot of good times.
(42:34):
You know, you really have toenjoy the good times when you're in
them. And when the family gettogether is the weddings anniversaries, because obviously
you have all the other that arenot fun. So you really got to
when you have one of those familyget togethers or parties and just go nuts
have a blast. That's why Isay to people, you know what,
you're in retirement, go do allthe things that you want to do and
let us worry about the money becauseone event, I've seen four of our
(43:00):
loved ones die in the last sixseven months, four either family members are
made of honor. Just it's devastating. It's uh, it's very emotional.
There's times I'll just go down theroad and I can fill the tears coming
down my cheeks because of memories.Yeah, you know people I'll never talk
to John Keith, Julie's cousin,who became very close with where you know,
(43:22):
I was with him at the track. Two months later he's dead,
you know, from pick pancreatic cancer. It's just you. You just it's
a it's horrific. There's a friendof a friend, largest the largest real
estate owners in the country, youknow, billionaire with a bee pancreatic cancer.
Yeah, well good is it?Who knows what will happen this time
(43:43):
next year? You know, hehas access to everything, has more money
than anyone. And what do youdo. I wouldn't I would mention a
name to you right now in thelistening audience, and I reached out to
this gentleman. I'm not going tomention his name. Multi multi and multi
multi millionaire right lives here in theCapitol district region. I had to talk
(44:06):
to him about something. I calledhim up right, and he's in another
state. The hell you doing there? You know what's going on. He's
in for the battle of his liferight now. He's basically fighting for his
life because of a health issue.And you know, when I hung up
the phone, I'm saying to myself, this guy has got the golden goose.
(44:30):
He's got everything that you could possiblyimagine. He's got every thing that
he could possibly do for his childrenand grandchildren, and he's in this bed,
in this facility, struggling in orderto stay alive. And right now,
I guarantee if I say I didn'tmention it to him, but I
(44:50):
guarantee you he would take all ofit, push it on, you know,
like I'm all in, give memy health and you can take it
all, right, Because when you'relaying there and you're having that thought,
is this it right? I mean, I've had conversations a lot of conversations
with clients that are dying because ofthe business that I'm in. Right,
(45:12):
you must see it a lot.It's horrific. I mean, I have
to stand tall, but I'll tellyou what, when I walk out of
there sometimes I crumble, yeah,because it's you know what, memories right
right, memories on realizing who thesepeople were, what they did, how
important their life was to them.And now, you know, that's why
I'm always flabbergasted that people just youknow, who cares about the money.
(45:37):
I mean, there's not one cursethat I've seen going to the funeral parlors
or to the cemetery that has aU haul in the back of it,
right with any but all you're leavingis you know, I personally myself if
I think about my mother and myfather and my family, not thinking about
the money. Now, I'm thinkingabout the memories your five percent your father
(46:01):
died of cancer. I just thinkof, yeah, playing golf of them
and skiing and things like that,exactly. So what's going on in the
bond market. So we we've actuallyhad a nice little run in the bond
markets, which is welcome. Well, we've been waiting now for months.
It's finally it's finally happening. Youknow. Since I would say about July
(46:24):
first, right, I was goingto say then I was going to say
the end of June, We've we'vehad a really nice uh you know,
we're kind of plateaued at the momentthe last three four trading sessions. But
for the most part, we've hada really nice run, which is great,
and we're starting to see all thesethings that the Fed's been looking for.
Will you let people know what youmean by a run, run meaning
(46:45):
bond market appreciation, which means yield'scoming down. Mod's going up in value,
right, Yield's coming down correct totalreturn on a portfolio, which is
positive for you. You've been waitingfor this clipping coupons. Now it's starting
to percolate, right, and andand we we never we never imagined it
(47:07):
was it would take this long likethis has been real sticky, sticky inflation,
sticky, sticky job market. Andthe FED brought inflation down from nine
point one to maybe two point eightwherever it is right now. So they
accomplish that goal, I think prettyand if they look at real time in
terms of shelter costs, I betyou we're pretty close to two percent.
(47:28):
But they don't look at real time. They look at the They look in
the past. Uh and if youlook at so the next the next year.
The drop that they wanted to wasthe job market and unemployment, and
that last report caught them by surprisewith a four point one on the unemployment
rate. And I think the magicnumber for them if they see four point
two, that ray cut in Septemberis a shoeing. I still think I
(47:51):
almost no matter what, I'm allin that it's going to happen in September.
I believe so too. They meetthe end of this month. And
I'll tell you the reason why,because I'm a smart man. Now this
is my logic, just asking justask me, I mean, can I
get my head through that door.They don't want to have any indicator that
(48:12):
Fed's acting in any capacity for theelection. Oh so you think they're they
think they're doing in September to beout of it. Yeah, that's my
personal feel. But I think allall things point towards it too. And
and well we shall see next Friday, in a week, we get their
favorite gauge of inflation PCE, andwe're talking off air. There's a lot
(48:36):
of economic things that happened so farthis month and influence that PCE that could
be that could be a surprise figure. So finally, finally, finally,
you know rates rates were you knowseven and a half percent April sixteenth,
and now they're coming down to lowsixes on thirty year paper. My other
prediction is this, it's not goingto be twenty five BIPs, you know,
(49:00):
think so it's gonna be fifty Anddon't you think because because they know
politically they can't move after that.Yeah, And I think what they're going
to do is that I think someof this additional data that's going to come
out over the next month or so, it's going to show weak you know,
people don't realize that weakness in themarket is actually a positive for investors,
(49:21):
which sounds crazy as a bond investor, right, it's contrarian, right.
But the thing is is that Ithink what they'll say is that,
listen, you know, we're goingto have to get ahead of the curve
here a little bit. You know, we've raised pretty aggressively. Fifty BIPs
won't hurt us now, because twentyfive is nothing if you think about it,
it's like a drop in a box. Well, you know, twenty
five twenty. Usually what they dois to give you a little bit of
(49:43):
the carrot and the stick. Thenthey come back the next month or you
know, two months and then giveyou another just you know, give me
the give me the go the fifty, go to fifty, and then you're
going to see it. And Ithink, like I said, you know,
I know that a lot of ourclients that said, hey, Dave,
eve been saying that the bond market'sgoing to rally. Bonds market.
You know. Well, I've beensaying, be patient, because you know
(50:04):
what, things don't happen overnight,especially in the financial markets. It's happening.
It's start right starting to see thetrend. So since April, mid
April to now, we've actually hadsignificant moves and now now the last I
would say ten trading days have beenvery significant. So we're moving in the
right direction in terms of yields atleast. I think we need lower interest
(50:24):
rates. And everybody criticizes the Fedbecause the Fed always waits too long,
like they did in this economic environment. Well, I wanted to read.
I wanted to read a report toyou here, you're gonna stick around for
another half hour? Yeah, allright, I want it. I'll find
it at the break because we're gonnahave to break here in a minute or
so. But share some of thosedonuts, Zach won't share. Look at
(50:45):
them in there. I'm afraid towalk in these dam donuts like potato chips.
Look at him, I thought hewas trying out for the Eagles.
Don't you like his beard since hetrimmed it up? Yeah, holding me,
it looks handsome, looking very professional. Back then, I don't know
what the hell's going on here.You must be going in for the rays
on Monday. All right, yeah, I'm going on vacation. Well you
(51:10):
should keep it like that because itlooks nice. Uh. I want to
go over this with you when wecan back h fidelities in the camp that
they think that, you know,the soft landing is a possibility. I
was just about to say that we'rebig critics of the FED. They might
actually pull this off first time inever the rabbits. The rabbit's going to
come out of the hat. Weshall see. Uh. You know they
(51:32):
waited too long obviously, but nowwe definitely have that possibility. If they
don't mess this up, then startlowering when when they should. I think,
you know Gunlock, you know gunlike the bond. Yeah, you
know, he's he has good debt, he's got good information, but you're
seeing softness everywhere manufacturing the beige bookcame out this week. Unemployment, the
(51:58):
CPI, the PPI, Shipman's carrier, you name it. I drive around
in the morning. I look atreal estate because that's what I like to
do in Clearwater, because I've beendown there quite a bit recently. I
drove around Clearwater Propertiesaid Julie and Ilooked at because we're looking at properties down
there, they're all still for sale, almost every single one that we looked
at. Well, the Florida markets, because they went up one hundred percent,
(52:21):
are seeing the most pulled back atthe moment. All right, we'll
not here though, We'll see afterthe local and national news. I'm Dave
Kopek. This is a retirement planningshow live from the wgy iHeart Studios.
Welcome to the Retirement Planning Show withyour host Dave Kopek from the Retirement Planning
Group. Every week, Dave andhis team discussed the ways they can help
people make informed decisions about a widearray of retirement planning information that can support
(52:46):
you and developing a more certain financialfuture for you and your family. Now
it's time for Dave Copec, WGY'sretirement planning specialist. All right, we
(53:40):
are backing the second hour of theRetirement Planning Show. We are live in
the studio. If you'd like topartake, participate, you have a question
for Drew about mortgages, bond marketinterest rates, the we're here talk wgy
(54:05):
that's one eight hundred and eight,two, five fifty nine, forty nine
and don't forget if you would liketo participate and swing for the cure.
September twenty six will be the event. It's an all day event. We
start I think around eight am andwe get you out of there about three
four. Have a beautiful eighteen wholegolf course, beautiful dinner, prizes,
(54:29):
gifts, raffles. I'll be singing, yes, after some refreshments, I
will be dancing and my wife,and my wife will be giving me Harry
eyeballs. She'll take out that caneand yank you off the stage. Well,
(54:52):
like I said last year, wehad it. We've always had a
good time. We've always had agood time at this event, and God
has blessed us with good weather andhopefully he will again so well. September
I always think is the best month. It's uh. Julie and I are
actually going to take a few daysand go to Martha's Vineyard. Yeah,
God, I haven't been there inforever. My favorite spot really, Well,
(55:14):
that's where our kids grew up.We used to get two weeks every
year. That's where we'd go.John, Oh, good buddy of mine.
He's a professor over at Sunny Aubany. He has a house over there,
and he used to allow us rentit for two weeks. That's how
he basically paid for it. Hepaid for it by renting out the house
for years and then him that's wherehim and his wife lived now. But
(55:34):
yeah, it's my favorite spot.One of my favorite spots in the whole
world is Martha's Vineyard. It tieswith Lake George. Memory wise, it
probably goes into first place. That'swhere my kids grew up, you know
what I mean, as far asplaying and learn how to swim and all
that fun stuff. I went toNantucket maybe five six years. Well I
(55:57):
can't afford he see I'm not inyour class. Well see they don't let
me get on a boat to goto Nantucket. Call back you Martha's Vineyard,
that's it. Yeah, my buddy, he had his fiftieth so he
splurged it, took us with himand he's the guy that air from all
money. Is your buddy that hasI was gonna say that your buddy has
his own jet. No, no, he did. This guy did rent
(56:17):
a plane from all any that righttoo, Martha's vineyards. So that was
that was. It only takes aboutforty five minutes, not that far at
all. Yeah, right, sohe you know, he just wanted to
go all out for his fiftieth.Yeah, so we're lucky enough. There's
an attorney in albody that has ahome and uh out there and I can't
think of his name right now.That's what he does. He has his
own plane and he flies back andforth to the cape. So yeah,
(56:40):
pretty cool. Yeah, it's notbad. All right. We're talking about
all the stuff that affects not onlythe financial markets, but affects your pocketbook.
It's called the interest rates. What'shappening. I'm very bullish right now.
Drew and I had a conversation offthe air, and I'm extremely bullish
(57:00):
on the bond market right now.You know, I've been bullish on the
bond market for at least a year, but starting to dance a little bit
here because I'm starting to see Ithink some cracks as far as the interest
rate environment. And I think youknow, as we say, you know,
the FED is not going to allowthis economy to have major deceleration.
(57:25):
I mean, they basically want toslow it down in the inflation. But
a lot of the numbers are comingin right now that will probably show that
things are probably getting worse month overmonth. I think they've done their job,
agreed. Yea. They kind oflook at almost every aspect and you
see contraction, whether it's construction,manufacturing, shipments from overseas, the Beige
(57:50):
Book that you know a lot ofeconomists look at, uh, you name
it, it seems to be itseems to be slowing down in many many
parts. Unemployment they look at thatto a great extent. So yeah,
and you know these politicians, whetherthey love them or hate them, well,
I were right. I'm not sendingany Christmas cards out now. Well
(58:14):
you can tell you that much.They are right. People are having a
hard time with gas and groceries andthings like that. So I'm astonished.
You know. The thing is isthat God has blessed both you and I
and I'm astonished that when I seepeople in line, they have a grocery
bill. You know, for likefour or five bags of groceries, almost
(58:34):
four hundred dollars, right, youknow, it's like right now for groceries,
depending on the selection. You know, it's like a hundred bucks a
bag. You know when you're goingto you know, if you're I mean
go to the meat market. Youknow, it's like it's astonishing what they
get for a people. I wasastonished in Florida and for people that are
(58:57):
out there, I don't know thatshop on a consistent base. See,
I do a lot of shopping becauseI'm up early, you do, yeah,
I barely ever. I get mymeat at fred That's where we go.
So I go there for my meatand my fish. They got great
fish. Yeah, Tuesdays and Fridays. Fridays it's fresh from the cape.
Yep. So I got my fishthere, and I get my meat there.
I like fresh meat. Like whenI I'll go there and I'll cook
(59:19):
it that day. My wife won'tfreeze anything. Yeah, she can't deal
with that, so she'll do thesame thing. So but when I do
shop at Price Chopper, I'm amazedcold cuts. When I'm in Florida,
I just went to publics to pickup some turkey for the day that we
spent. Yeah, it was fourteendollars and sixty nine cents a pound.
(59:39):
That's crazy for sliced turkey. That'scrazy. Isn't that insane? And that's
a publics which isn't even probably agood quality like friends makes their own.
That's a whole different world. Yeah. But the thing is is that you
know, you're trying to save afew bucks, and I'm saying to myself,
you know, I, Julie andI have shopped at Sam's for years,
(01:00:00):
which I always think is the greatestvalue. You get so much more
love going there. Yeah, Imean, it's just amazing, especially if
you know your kids. Our kidsused to eat cereal like you know,
wolves, right right. I hatewhen they're always hungry. I got to
feed them. Yeah, it's justcome out the girls. As they get
older, they get better because theydon't eat as much because they're worried about
(01:00:22):
their figures. Oh yeah, thesalads and the little meals. Yeah protein.
I said to my daughter the otherday, how much chicken and lettuce
can you eat? Yeah? Youknow, all right, it's because they
watch the Kardashians. Kardashians have thebig butts, but all you see them
thing is the chicken and salads.Let us right, that's it. They're
always having salads. So if I'min a situation right now, then I'm
(01:00:45):
going to retire. Should I besitting on the sidelines for a little while?
In terms of real estate selling buyingboth, I'm I'm a big proponent.
I've been saying this for months andmonths that I'd rather be a buyer
right now because when you do seea five handle on interest rates, so
it's going to happen. So thenthe fence hitters are coming back in and
(01:01:07):
all the houses that you're trying toget or what's a thirty year piece of
paper right now? Low sixes atthe moment on a thirty year piece and
now too long ago we were sevenand a quarter seven and a half,
so you've lost almost a point onone hundred basis points. One hundred basis
points. Yeah, right and rightnow, and we're starting to see some
more inventory, which is nice.So for the biggest time, longest time,
(01:01:29):
it's been hard to find a house. That's been the biggest problem with
people want to buy real estate isthey can't find anything they like. But
at least in the capital regions,something goes on the market, it's pretty
much gone in twenty four to fortyeight hours, i'd ask, or if
not higher, if it's price right, So four to twenty four is the
tenure, Yeah, down from whatChrist five and change it was. I
(01:01:52):
mean, not too long ago.I saw a four to seventy two four
to seventy five back I would sayApril twenty ninth, So not too long
ago. So you've you've got fiftyBIPs there, right, So if they
drop it fifty, what's that tenureat I say, I say, the
next stop is four ten, fourten. Yeah, right now, it's
(01:02:15):
kind of moving sideways, but fourten is probably the next line in the
sand. If if if they canget by four seventeen on the ten ure,
then there's a big drop. Nextsupport line is actually four oh seven.
So that's that's where I think Isee things going, depending on inflation,
(01:02:35):
depending on the PCEE, depending onyou know, the unemployment. There's
a lot lot going to happen beforeyou know the FED talks again. So
pce encompasses what personal consumption expenditure iswhat it stands for, and I think
it's a fit. I don't know. The FED loves it. I don't
know if it's as if it's truedepiction of a basket of goods that the
(01:03:00):
consumer looks at. I don't.I don't know exactly what goes into that.
But the FED, for years andyears and years, loves that number.
They love it more than the CPI. They love it more than the
PPI. So you know, that'stheir favorite gauge. And that's what they
look at when they say we wantinflation at two percent. That's what they're
talking about. Yeah. So here, here's some bullet points from a report
(01:03:22):
that I get, and growing confidenceis happening with a FED rate cut,
signs that the economy is slowing butstill exhibiting sufficient vigor to sustain the expansion.
Agree with both of those. Yes, and the final one, this
(01:03:43):
is the one that I think willprobably add some positive thoughts for you and
for business people. Election thoughts witha shift in expectations for a Trump win
and group pro growth policies. Yep, don't you think like love them or
(01:04:06):
hate them or whatever. There's certainthings I understand don't understand. One thing
I do not understand is the wholeoil thing. Second day in office,
the current administration shut down the pipeline. Fuel prices. Gas prices went up.
Everything on the planet, transportation costsare involved. Fuel inflation obviously went
(01:04:30):
up high. If you get aTrump in the White House, he turns
the spickett back on the gas prices. Drop fue prices, drop inflation,
drops drill, drill, baby drill. The Alaskan pipeline. I don't know.
They shut that down the second dayof the current administration's office. It
just seems like that touches every aspectof our life. The groceries you're talking
(01:04:55):
about, they can't sell. Theycan't sell ebs. The average guy,
I can't afford an ev plus.I don't think they're good for the environment.
I don't think they're good for theenvironment. The other thing is too
okay. If I I can't rememberwho I was riding with. They just
got a car. I can't rememberwho the hell it was. They've got
a what do they call them energyit's not energy of fish, hybrid,
(01:05:18):
hybrid, that's it. Hybrid.They're getting almost forty miles to a gallon
with this really nice car. Soyou got to be kiddming. No,
like that's the that's the car tobuy, is the hybrid. I don't
think the electrics, they answer,I don't want to Maybe gas is in
it. I think that hybrid makessense me personally. At three hundred miles
or four hundred range on an electriccar, I'm not doing it. I'm
(01:05:42):
not doing it either. That mentalthat I have to worry about, which
I drive a lot in the winterand the batteries lose capacity. The other
thing is, I got a friendof mine has a Tesla. He got
in my drive. He couldn't backit up because there was like an inch
of snow on the ground. Hewas a hard time moving the car.
Oh wow, Yeah, I don'tsee it yet. I really don't.
I don't see it's good for theenvironment. I don't see if you're driving
(01:06:03):
a Tesla for three four years andwe know that those batteries have an infinite
lifespan, not infinite, a finite, and would I buy that car from
you? I'm not gonna. What'sthat car worth? So the resale value
is nothing where they dispose of thebattery. If you do some research on
it, and you spend a fewminutes and you do some research, you'll
(01:06:25):
find out, they're The saleability ofa used Tesla stinks. It's horrible,
it's horrific. The other thing istoo, is that the EV cars are
sitting all over warehouses in parking lotsbecause they can't sell them, right,
and the manufacturing, the automotive manufacturing, uh, they can only absorb this
(01:06:50):
cost for so long to facilitate abetter relationship with our friends in Washington,
right right, and they're going tosay, you know what, you're gonna
drive us out of business. Idon't understand was a GM They said,
by a certain time they're gonna haveno gas vehicles, all electric. I
don't understand that. So I thinkI think that hybrid is probably the answer.
(01:07:12):
That's where you get. I don'tknow of anybody, anybody that I
know, with maybe the exception ofone or two, that has an EV.
I don't think they're sustainable. Idon't think they're affordable. I don't
think they give you the confidence.I wouldn't go away in one of them
for an extended period of time.And the other thing is charging stations,
(01:07:34):
right, how many are out there? Right? And I got you got
hundreds of thousands of cars of revs, and you need to plug it in.
Where the hell you're going to go? I go to New York a
lot. So as we were talking, I just got my shoulder replaced four
weeks ago. So when you're goingfor your head, Yeah, that's that's
a whole nother story. You know. We gassed up in Clifton Park,
(01:07:57):
drive to New York, I havethe surgery, drive home one tank of
guess yeah, I can't do thatin electric vehicle. You can't do You
think I'm gonna pull over and chargeas you gotta. I got a shoulder
block I got I'm on narcotics,you know. I mean, I couldn't
deal with that. Meant so youhad so when you had your your surgery,
what two weeks ago, four weeksfour weeks ago, you had your
(01:08:19):
surgery, had a shoulder replacement.They did your surgery, and that day
they let you out the door togo home. They actually kept me at
night, they did. Yeah,but but most most people go home,
uh same day, like you talkedabout jul at their hip. Yeah,
go in the morning and go homeat night, unless unless you started late
(01:08:39):
in the day or have some sleepapnea issues. You know, they keep
you over night for observation, butfor the most part, you're you're in
and out same day. It's crazy. And my father used to be an
orthopedic surgeon. You get a hipdone, you're you're in the asshole for
a good week. But here,do you mind if I mentioned what it
cost you? No, No,I don't care. Did the bill?
Well, didn't cost you because youhad insurance insurance one day, one surgery,
(01:09:01):
twenty four hours, twenty four onehundred thousand dollars. Yeah. Yeah,
it's nuts, It's absolutely nuts.Julie's father went in for a stent
forty five minutes. Julie's father wentin for a stint one night, went
in the stent. Now this isyears ago before he passed. It's fifty
like fifty five thousand dollars. Yeah, And you know the thing is is
(01:09:26):
that have you been to a hospitallately as far as to visit people or
have someone admitted back in December,it's a horror story. Yeah. Yeah.
Luckily the hospital I went to isjust surgery Center, just surgery,
which was for joints, just orthopedics, so they owned surgery center, so
I wasn't with any sick people.Yeah, and it was great. But
yeah, we were in the hospitalquite a bit last December with my father
(01:09:49):
in law and not fun. No, it isn't a matter of fact,
I tell you about Kelly, she'dsit in the hallways for a day a
day, yeah, trying get abet. Yeah, don know, all
many met. Yeah. So Idon't know what's going on. I mean,
we're the greatest country on earth,but why we don't have a better
(01:10:09):
health system. I don't know ifthat's everywhere right now, Dave, whether
you go to get a hamburger oryou have to go to the emergency room
or hospital, the service everywhere it'sterrific, stinks and that's why I,
unfortunately, I think you need somesort of recession so that we get our
heads screwed on straight again. I'lltell you a real quick story which was
(01:10:30):
surprising to me. And I don'twant anybody think that this is a political
statement, because it isn't a politicalstatement. But I just want you to
this is the world that we livein today. We were at Beyond the
Sea having dinner with my wife,my son, his girlfriend Marissa, friends
of ours, and also Lisa andher husband, and we're just just a
(01:10:55):
nice night out to you have goodtime. And then my son, you
know, looked over at me andjust roll in his eyes and goes,
wow, what's going on? Hegoes, Trump was shot? Oh I'm
sorry, I said what. Hegoes, Yeah, I said Trump was
shot. And you know, thetables are close. So I looked at
a woman that was sitting next toher and her daughter and I just,
(01:11:17):
you know, I, you know, you spit it out because it was
almost like, oh my god,Trump. And I said to this woman,
I said, oh my god,I can't believe it. Trump,
Trump was just shot. You knowwhere words to me where it's about time?
Who said that? This woman sittingright next to me, not like,
oh my god or oh you know, good god. I can't believe
(01:11:40):
It's crazy talk that's crazy. Thisis the world that we live in today,
that's crazy. How about that it'sabout time? That was her response.
I just I said it out loud, and Julie said, you know,
stop, you know, don't saynothing. I said out loud,
you know, because I just couldn'tbelieve that response. I said, I
can't believe you just that. Howabout that? It's one of the reps
(01:12:03):
House of Representative Senator one of oneof the staff members tweeted something like,
too bad they missed and they shouldhave been too bad you missed luckily.
I mean she was fired on thespot. But that kind of talk is
crazy. You imagine if it wasyou imagine if it was Obama or if
it was somebody else. See,they got and he got shot. This
(01:12:25):
is this is what I don't understand. Like back back in the days you
had Democrats, Republicans. You worktogether, reach over there, you do,
you do your thing, you negotiate. I don't know when it happened,
where it became, like I'll tellyou exactly when it happened. And
this is my own personal feeling ClintonHillary right, because I don't think I
(01:12:46):
don't think Bill his administration was fairlynormal. It was after him. I
think what happened is this whole thingwith this Russia collusion, Russia Russia,
Russia guarded this whole stigma that youknow, which we all know. I
don't care if you got your headin the sand. I don't care where
(01:13:08):
you've been. It's improven that itwas basically a lie. It was used
as a tactic in order for himto be defeated in the election, and
you know, they'll talk until they'reblue in the face that there's still a
Russian connection there with Tryst, andI mean, it's it's hard to even
(01:13:30):
comprehend. I don't. I usedto watch listen before I let you finished
me. I used to watch thenews every day. You know what I
do Now? I don't watch ita well. I watch the financial stations,
and I specifically go to websites thatI can get a summary of bullet
points what's going on in the world. I don't watch the news anymore because
I can't stand I can't stand eitherside. I don't. I can't stand
(01:13:54):
politics. I'm the same way.I read a newsletter that's very unbiased in
the morning, and I watched theNBC all day long, just for the
financial except when the British opens,and then I'll then I'll watch the channel.
But but and all all of asudden, then you can debate this
all day long. But racism,I think was set aside, and now
(01:14:18):
I feel like it's back. Itis bigger than ever it is. When
did that happen? Well, wehad almost eliminated. I stay on this
radio show all the time, allright, yeah, all right, allergies
you gotta stop drinking in the morning. That's I gotta start. My son
went to CBA, okay, andI am a huge one supporter of CBA.
(01:14:41):
My son's three best friends, right, three best friends. One's black,
one's Asian, and one is hispanic. His three best friends. And
when I look at them together,I mean, I treat these kids like
my own kid. Don't tell meyou're we're because we're not a racist society.
There's always going to be bigots andidiots, right, We're always going
(01:15:04):
to have them. I don't careblack or white, green, purple,
I don't care what the hell youare. Okay, You're always going to
have idiots. We are not asociety that's racist. It is a marketing
ploy. It is a way forthem to get money money. It's a
fear. It's fear. That's exactlyhow I feel. Right, So we're
gonna stay out of politics, becauseplease, we'll politics. Know, if
(01:15:29):
you want to watch politics, turnthe volume off, mute the channel,
and look at their body language.You could tell who is full of boloney
and who's I just can't believe thatsome of the things that are being said,
And you wonder why a person wasshot. When you honestly think about
this, and you know, youKennedy. I know that they just put
(01:15:50):
a detail on Robert Kennedy Junior,which that he should have had from the
very beginning because of the history ofhis family. Some idiot there would basically
walk around like a rooster if hekilled a Kennedy, you know what I
mean. And who's he right now? He's extremely insignificant in the political doesn't
make any difference. Idiots come inall shapes and sizes, and that's that's
(01:16:12):
sad. Look at his kid,Look at his kid. Kid. I
can't wait for that Onion Town.Yeah, this kid is He's able to
work his way through with a riflein the middle of daylight and go up
on a roof. And they knewabout this kid thirty minutes before Trump put
the stage. Where's the breakdown there? It's it's insane. You know.
That's why this is going to bea movie five years. But this is
(01:16:38):
going to have you know, I'vebeen saying I've been saying it for a
long time. Turn the temperature down, right, turn the temperature down.
You know, there's a lot oftimes in our business, in the financial
services business, you have to havehard discussions with people about things that you
don't necessarily want to have discussions with. Right that situation, right, right,
(01:17:01):
you're not talking negative or you're anidiot, or you know, you
know what I mean, you're havinga very logical, discipline approach of things
that either need to change or youknow, at least my point of view,
those two parties don't have any kindof synergy at all. Zero.
I mean, how can a wholeblock of a party vote for one thing?
(01:17:23):
You're not telling me if there's notone person that this is a disagrees
with an amendment or a bill,right, one hundred percent of them,
right, it doesn't make any Theyused to all work together, and now
it's now it's so insided. Uh, it seems like nothing can get done,
which almost is a good thing.And when nothing can get done,
(01:17:45):
because then they can't spend I said, I talked last week about oligarchs.
Oligarchs are founding fathers, worried aboutoligarchs. We have so much of a
concentration of the wealth of a nationwith a handful of people. Do you
think we're there, Oh yeah,there's no doubt in my mind we're there.
Oh yeah, we see it,whether it's bezos, you go through
(01:18:06):
the whole laundry list of all ofthem, right, billions and billions and
billions, Zuckerberg and the power thathe has through it's scary, right,
It's a scary situation, right.And the thing is is that if you
don't if the public doesn't believe intheir government and the media, those are
(01:18:32):
the two big things. That's aslippery slope. Yeah, I think,
I think. I think the mediais the blame for a lot of it.
I really do, no doubt,I really do. Based of one
thing, politics, ratings, money, you know, we're number one,
(01:18:53):
right, number one? And whatthey need to be more responsible because people
people, people are getting brainwashed.If you watch a certain channel and they
have they only give you one pointof view, you eventually believe that that's
the truth. And it needs tobe. Aren't we a society that we're
bill there's supposed to be a proand econ right right objective any anytime you
(01:19:16):
debate, if you ever debated,right right, there's both sides of the
fence and you keep it civil.Right, So all right, we got
to take a break. We're goingto come back. We'll finish up.
We'll actually go back to talking aboutthe financial markets. But these are these
are very difficult times. These arevery difficult times, and I think it's
monumental. This is monumental, andI think it's going to have a huge
(01:19:36):
impact for possibly for decades, fordecades. Uh, we're here live.
You have any questions or comments oneeight w G Y one eight five fifty
nine Dave Kopek with Droiella And believeme, folks, we will go back
to talking about the financial markets.We'll see on the other side of the
break. All right, you're back. You know, you take a deep
(01:20:53):
I don't want to get into politics, but you take a deep breath.
And actually, when we talk aboutstuff like this, it actually makes give
me like anxiety because I really worryabout the future, this hostility, this
anger that's in our society today,where we should all be dancing in our
streets. I mean, I thinkabout how my grandparents had to work and
(01:21:16):
bust their tails in order to makea living and stuff in my parents and
you know, maybe that's the problem, is that there's too much of a
good thing out there. Well,I guess we'll soon find out. You
know, these comments that are madelike morning Joe got yanked because of inappropriate
comments made regarding the shooting. They'vebeen doing this for years. That's like,
(01:21:38):
why are they going there? Somebodydied the other day. Forget Trump,
forget politics. Two other guys gotThey didn't die, but they were
wounded badly. Somebody died, afather, a husband, two kids.
I mean, that's sick. That'snot real. What like people out there
(01:22:00):
saying it's fake, that really didn'thappen. It's just it's insane. It
really is insane. I'll tell youwhat. Uh, Julie and I took
a ride. Mikhaela is going toFAU which is in Boca ratan beautiful campus.
I said, hey, let's takea ride up A one a.
(01:22:23):
Have you driven that? Not?In forever? A one a is like
the mega Mega millionaire is billionaire wherethe boats are as big as the houses.
The right hand side, the housesare on the ocean. On the
left hand side, the boats areon the inner coastal right, they're yachts.
(01:22:44):
And you drive through there and yousay to yourself, how can there
be such a high concentration of wealthlike this in this world? Now,
hey, listen, I'm for youknow what, you bust your tail,
you reap the rewards. Nobody cameto Julian ires house when we were working
twenty four hour days. Nobody said, hey, listen, Dave, you
(01:23:06):
need a break. And I knowthat you and I say this all the
time. You worked as hard asI, if maybe not even harder.
You're still a hard worker. AndI'm still working seven days a week.
I love it well, I dotoo. But the thing is is that
people need to be rewarded for theeffort that they put in. Right.
But you see this wealth that's downthere, and it just blows your mind.
(01:23:30):
It's insane. Yeah, it blowsyour mind that there's this kind of
wealth out there for these types.And you think about it. What Elon
Musk took a pay package of whatfifty four billion, He's worth two hundred
and fifty billion, richest man inthe world. Yeah, I mean,
(01:23:51):
event eventually society has got to figurethis out. Because the thing is is
that and I believe this in thebottom of my heart, there is too
much of disparity, huge despair.That gap has gotten between the haves and
the haves really wide. It's muchmore so than I've ever seen in my
life really wide, right, thatthe middle class is almost I feel like
(01:24:14):
it's getting destroyed. Right. Itis like you got the super super ultra
wealthy, and then you've got peoplethat are on food stamps. My pickup
truck that I bought costs me morewhen I bought it last year than I
paid for my first house. OhI believe that, right I did.
I paid sixty nine thousand dollars formy first house. That pickup truck cost
(01:24:35):
me seventy three thousand. Yeah,right now, I understand inflation appreciation blah
blah blah and all that nonsense.But an average Joe today, And I
say average Joe because I got alot of average Joe's in my family.
Right, hard working savers. Theygo to work every single day. I'll
(01:24:56):
use my brother as an example.HVAC same makes eighty thousand dollars a year,
working six days a week. Right, Then he's got to pay for
his own health care or a goodportion of it through his employer. Then
he's got to fund his own fouroh one k. Then he's got to
pay the taxes, have a car, you know what, and do some
things that they like to do onthe side it's not a lot of money
(01:25:16):
today. You think eighty thousand dollarsa lot of money today, I think
minimum wage. Unfortunately, with thecost of goods and just living in taxes
and health insurance and all that stuffis probably one hundred grant. So what's
the answer minimum wage? So what'sthe answer. I don't know. I
mean, wages are trying to keepup well, but read the news about
(01:25:39):
California. McDonald's restaurants, which havealways been what a staple, a pillar
you want to buy a franchise.They're closing and they're closing. Why they
closing ten dollars right Hamburg? Imean you go there now, it's like
fifteen dollars for you know, abig mac. The they're closing because the
state of California, and I thinkthe minimum wage is twenty bucks an hour.
(01:26:01):
It's crazy. They can't support it. You know, it's gonna happen.
They're starting to see it. Theyhave robots, they're gonna replace cooks
and chefs. It's already have thingslike that, and that's that's what's gonna
happen. Yeah, they're gonna You'regonna these people are gonna get unplanted.
The guy that I talked to onthe airplane that had the two businesses.
That's exactly what he said. Hesaid, they already have them. It's
(01:26:24):
already in existence. And anytime Ican automate and I can put a machine
where a person, there's no Ican't come to work today. You know,
I'm I'm unhappy about my pay package. You know what, You better
pay me more money or I'm gonnaleave. You never get that coming out
of a machine. It was ittwo three weeks ago. My son was
(01:26:44):
in town. This girlfriend, she'sa vegan, so you know, it's
hard to get food. So wejust want to go real quick to Burger
Cake, get some French fries.At the drive through, no one's there,
No one's there, no one's there. Drive around. The guy opens
wind up, nobody showed up.We're closed. We can't we can't serve
you. I'm the only guy here. Where was that Burger king Clifton Park
(01:27:08):
on forty six Route night. Doyou believe that at like four o'clock in
the afternoon? Do I believe it? Absolutely? I believe is that crazy.
I've got friends of mine that arestill in that crazy restaurant business,
and I won't mention their names onthe air, but they say it all
the time. I went to abank a couple months back, what a
(01:27:29):
bank I do business with right onthis road. Couldn't go inside. The
only thing I could do is drivethrough because nobody was there except for one
person. So from a security standpoint, can't open the doors. You can't
go inside the bank because the onlyone person. It's nuts, absolutely nuts,
insanity. So I don't know.I don't know where this all ends.
(01:27:51):
I just know, you know,my short lifetime never see anything like
it. It's it's it's daunting.And when I say it's daunting, I
just find it hard to believe thatI don't. I don't know what's going
on. There's a deterioration, andthe deterioration is ultimately have an effect not
(01:28:12):
on just a few, but onall, on everybody. But like I
said, you drive down A oneA in Florida. I went from Bolca
up to Palm Beach. I actuallydrove by Trump's house. Right, that's
like a fortress right now, marA Lago, Okay, it's right on
A one a. And the thingis is that you say to yourself,
(01:28:39):
wow, Like I just can't believethat there's this kind of wealth in this
country. I mean, when Iwant to you know these I mean even
Julie was like, oh my god, like every every five seconds, Oh
my god. You know just thelook of these home drive drive down that
I was. We went through Delray, crazy pressed. Yeah, there's some
(01:29:00):
fifty sixty one hundred million dollars.Oh they're probably more than that. Now,
it's just, yeah, insanity someof what goes on there. All
right, So opportunity right now onyour side of the fence. I said
to you, I'm at the break. Are you a buyer or you a
seller? Right now? You thinkyou should be a buyer. I'm a
buyer. I'm a buyer now ifyou want to get involved in real estate,
(01:29:25):
just because we're starting to see alittle more supply come on the market,
which is good. His interest ratesdropped a little bit. But when
you start to see a five onthe interest rates and the fence hitters come
in, you could see over thenext twenty four months ten percent, you
know, So I'd rather be abuyer. You buy a house today for
three hundred thousand. In two years, you can't buy a house one thousand
(01:29:46):
no, now that the starter home. Like I went into a house the
other day. Bob Marini says,you know his his three hundred thousand dollars
house. Now it's five hundred thousand. I went to a house the other
day. Is new construction, fiveyears old, eight twenty five, twenty
six hundred square feet? What isthat? Poaching stamplot what what is that?
A square foot? About three hundredthree hundred bucks a square Yeah,
(01:30:09):
I mean you look at look atthe Adelphi. You know those condos are
New York City prices thousand dollars asquare foot, sixteen hundred yeah, sixteen
hundred square feet, sixteen hundred dollarsa square one point five one point six
million. Yeah, obviously you gotthe amenities and all that. That's where
my brother law was working. That'swhere he is working crazy money. And
(01:30:30):
he just says, it's amazing whata lot of them are doing. The
wealth that's over there buying those they'renot buying one, they're buying two,
and they're blown out the wall,out the wall, right, and they're
making it, you know, amuch bigger suite rather than just having it
as you know what traditionally what itwould have been to start to get some
of the CEOs over there. Sopeople are going to start moving in soon.
Yeah, so h that'll be that'llbe interesting. And I think forty
(01:30:54):
percent of them already sold. Yeah, but you know, there's a handful
of people at you know, Idon't know. There's a lot of wealth
out there that has been created.You know, it's a staggering figure.
I say this to people all thetime, and it you know, when
you think about it, it's anumber, but about eighty five trillion dollars
will pass in the next twenty fiveto thirty years from my generation to my
(01:31:16):
kids, right from the boomers toour children. Wow. And it's still
a shortage in your business in termsof qualified individuals. Fifty thousand people short
right now. Try and why isthat? Because people don't want to work
over It took me over a yearto find Chris McCarthy who joined us,
because you just want to bring somebodyin. You want to make sure that
(01:31:36):
it's a good fit. They gotthe right personality, They're not going to
cause problems in the office. Youknow, all the things you want a
good you want a good human being, chemistry. This is a long conversation
I had last week with the consultingfirm that I'm working with. If a
young person's out there right now that'slistening to this show, or if you
have children or people that want toget involved in the financial services industry,
(01:32:00):
get them going, because guys myage are going into the sunset right there
is these great opportunities that are goingto be presented to young people. But
the problem with my book of businessis that you got to have some gray
hair, because when you talk aboutpre and post retirement planning, it's just
(01:32:21):
not investment management. It's the fullwealth management that you have to do for
retirees. It's the estate planning,it's the long term care planning, it's
the tax planning, it's the legacyplanning. It gets comp you know,
and a lot of experience from differentscenarios playing out. I mean, I
started in the business when what wasthe dow out when you started? Do
(01:32:43):
you remember the dow was blow twothousand when I started? I can't remember.
The dow was below two thousand whenI started in eighty two. That's
crazy. What is it now?Forty? That's nuts. At a friend
of a friend, his father gavehim some Microsoft stock back in the seventies.
Yeah, decent size. Obviously,he's about a year older than me.
(01:33:05):
He's a billionaire on the Microsoft stockand that crazy that he had from
you know, fifty years ago.It's crazy with that turned it didn't marry
his sister. Guy's pretty smart.He did some things on his own of
course too, wasn't just the stock, but damn he's got a couple of
wives houses all over. That's whatthat's what we call the Lucky Genetic Club.
(01:33:28):
Yep, good jeans. Right,we got to take our final break.
When we come back, we're goingto kind of summarize some of our
social topics and also what we talkedabout financially here. But you know,
it's going to be a beautiful weekend, folks, get out and enjoy it.
Enjoy You're going to have a lotof opportunities to do a lot of
fun things. Cooperstown that's a greatexperience. I don't know if you've ever
(01:33:51):
been over there. It's beautiful.It's a great experience, especially the induction
ceremony and of course Saratoga. Anybig names Cooperstown that no, they told
me I'm gonna have to go there'sname commercial. Yeah, but you'll do
it on the commercial bet if youhave any comments, If you'd like to
participate, it's one eight hundred talkWGY, We're here live one eight one
(01:34:12):
hundred eight two five fifty nine fortynine will be right back the eighty six
percenters. Do you know that eightysix percent of the population has no defined
benefit pension plan? For most ofus, we have to take our life
savings and create a paycheck for therest of our lives in retirement. What
is your plan for retirement income distribution? How you manage your assets during the
most critical years of your lifetime.Nobel Prize winning economist William Sharp has called
(01:34:34):
retirement income distribution the nastiest, hardestproblem in finance. He points out that
investment, uncertainty, and mortality canderail the most careful laid out retirement income
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distribution plan. After forty one yearsof being in the financial services business,
you need to start taking action tostart building your own personal retirement income distribute
(01:35:00):
plan. How do you do that? To take action? Five one eight
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one nine one nine or RPG retireon the web. Don't procrastinate, motivate
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a spouse, drain your life savings, and cost stress and anxiety on your
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your estate and have choices and independence. Take action call today five one eight,
five eight zero one nine one nineor RPG retire on the web.
(01:35:57):
Do you look like that guy whenyou dance weezy? What you're talking about?
Weezy? The Jeffersons. You looklike George Jefferson. I used to
laugh by you and know what offthat? I love the Jefferson anytime I
see it on TV. Now Isaw that guy was believe he is he?
Whatever happened? I guy, hewas hilarious. It's probably dead.
That's good. You're going back tothe seventies, aren't you. I used
(01:36:20):
to love that show me Too's goto Tom. We actually broke the ice.
Tom, you're the first and onlycaller today. Hello, Hey Tom,
good morning, Hey, good goodmorning. Sorry to call you at
the end of the show, butI was listening. Any words of advice
(01:36:40):
I can give. My son justgraduated from PA school, accumulated around ten
thousand dollars of credit card debt.I just paid that off with the understanding
he's going to maximize his flour ohone K and get an emergency fund.
But what about he's got school debtof around and seventy thousand. I think
(01:37:03):
he should join the Guard or reservebecause he could get I think get forgiveness
on some aspect. But do youguys have any recommendations. And I'm driving
to my car, so I'll hangup and I'll listen to you on the
radio. Good show. All right, all right, brother, right,
(01:37:24):
Yeah, it's funny to say thatI just talked to a client last week
and he's in the reserve and hegets a portion of his debt forgiven every
year, and he gets a Wtwo for it and in the form almost
to pay. And there's geographic locationsin the United States that if you relocate,
They'll pay off those loans. Yougot a lot of options, Tom,
(01:37:46):
Yeah, and I think if you'rework in government for ten years,
they forgive a chunk or all.So, yeah, that's funny you say
that, Tom, because that literallyjust came up recently. I think what
you have to do is, youknow, work with a financial team and
have a chat with them. We'vegot some suggestions. My good friend of
mine has a daughter. Pa.Is that Tom again? Who is it
(01:38:14):
Ben? Ben? Morning? Ben? Yes? Am I talking. I
need to tell you it's one ofthe best shows watching these boys talk at
it at heart being a financial show. I appreciate that, Pal. Yeah,
I follow. I'll tell you thereason why you know this is Dave
Kopek and we're here with Drew.I think if we just sit and talk
(01:38:34):
numbers, I mean, you know, life has challenges and retirement has challenges,
and the thing is is that whathappens outside the financial markets will impact
the financial markets. So we haveto be aware of that. And the
thing is is that you know,we don't we don't want to just sit
here and talk numbers all day long. Your hearts right out there. I
(01:38:58):
appreciate it, Pal, I appreciatethat a bullet. Thank you, Okay,
I appreciate that. That's a verynice compliment. I missed the beginning
of what he said. He likesour show. He likes it that it's,
uh, you know, we're heartfeltconversational. Yeah, I agree.
I had a I sometimes leave hereafter doing the show with you and I
(01:39:19):
wonder, what do we talk aboutwell in terms of financial when I when
I listen to shows, because Ilisten constantly to other people that are on
radio nationally, locally, et cetera, I get bored out of my brains
when yeah, if you're going totalk about numbers, all right, let
(01:39:44):
me get a pillow so I cansnooze off, right. I sometimes I
hate when I throw out when wetalk about acronyms c P I, P
P I. Well, that's mypoint. That's why I always say to
that you have to you know,there's a lot of people we talk about
it every day, you know,the guys that work for National Grid,
the guys that you know, there'speople out there they don't talk about the
(01:40:05):
financial markets every day. Uh,you know, so sometimes I'll say when
people we talk about PCE and wetalk about inflation, and basis point.
Sometimes you have to give people clarityof exactly what we're talking about. But
the thing is is that, youknow, I don't want to sound like
an idiot this morning, but I'llsay this, and I've said it to
(01:40:27):
my children, I've said it topeople that walk in that work with me.
You have to love what you do. Oh and I sometimes this might
sound funny or crazy. I actuallylook forward to a Monday, like people
think. I'm when the wife ison the warpath. That's easier sometimes than
(01:40:51):
home. But yeah, I don't. I don't know. I don't mind
it because I'm thinking on Sunday ofall the stuff I gotta do on Monday,
and I can't wait to dig rightinto it. You know. So,
But but what did I just say? You have to have a passion,
you know, like people say,even when you're gonna retire for what
what am I gonna do? Youknow? I just baked on the beach
for one day. I couldn't waitto get the hell offic I'm like telling
(01:41:12):
magazines you could read. Yeah,I'm just sending herself, how to hell
do people do this all day long? Now? Some people love it,
they have They are very active,they volunteer, they have a certain day
basically, but that's just that couldbe a part of it. But I
just I don't know. I thoughtsomething was wrong with me, like I
don't when you talk about did youtalk about Sarasota walking in speed up?
(01:41:35):
I think there is something wrong withtrying to break real estate down so I
could buy something, But I don't. I thought something's wrong with me that
SAIDs I don't love anything that muchwhere I could do it every Like I
have a friend that plays golf everysingle day. I could not do that.
And I love golf, I loveskiing, I love tennis. I
(01:41:56):
just can't. I can't imagine doingit every single day. The thing is
is that there's also, you know, and I say this sometimes to prospective
clients, there is some advantage workingwith somebody that's been in the business as
long as I have, because whenyou think about it, I've been in
the business now for forty three years. This is my forty third year in
the financial services business, my thirtieth, and by being in the business that
(01:42:21):
long, there really isn't a lotof things as far as black Swan events,
good markets, bad markets. AndI always say to people over and
over again. You know the problemwith most people today is that they don't
have patience and they want immediate gotto have it now, got to have
it now, I got it.You know why are we down two percent?
I mean, come on, wethis goes modern technology. Jesus.
(01:42:42):
Every morning you can wake up ShieldFidelity app. Oh my god, you
could see the movements up or down. We have a guy that called the
other day. He's up seventeen percentover the last twelve months. This is
this God's on this true. AndI'm saying this because I think it's important
for people to hear this. It'sup seventeen percent over last twelve twelve.
Why am I only up seventeen Wellbecause you're in a balanced portfolio. What
(01:43:03):
do you mean by that? I'min a balance But the S and P
five hundred is up like thirty percent. Well that's great. If you want
to go up thirty percent, thenyou need to come back in here and
fill out this form again. Becauseyour form, because I pulled the formans
it says that you're a moderate balancedinvestor and you don't want to have one
hundred percent of your money allocated intothe stock market. Yeah, so why
(01:43:27):
am I up seventeen because you're notone hundred percent. You're basically comparing an
orange to an apple. Okay,we're not talking the same stuff here.
Brother. If you want to beone hundred percent in the stock market,
you want the gas pedal down tothe floor, let's go. But you
got to do me a favor.You got to come back in here,
and you got to fill out thisrisk tolerance questionnaire one more time that says
(01:43:49):
you're willing to take the ride withouta parachute. Yeah right, buckle your
chin strap, yeah right, yeah, no, I agree. I agree
when I when I actually got thebusiness, uh, it was know your
customer, yeah right, yeah,And that was a big part of it,
is doing the appropriate thing for therisk time. Well, we we've
(01:44:10):
always done one thing, and Ialways say it all over again. We
talk about this all the time.I actually had a conversation with our consulting
firm yesterday. A d t RT a d t RT even if it
hurts, always do the right thing, yeah, yep, always, always,
all right. I know you've hadyou want to sleep good at night?
(01:44:30):
Pull old planning, Yeah, yep, pull old planning makes you sleep
all right? Summarize how do peopleget ahold of you? So just go
to drewsteam dot com. That's usuallythe best way to get me is drews
team dot com. And and there'ssome things we didn't get to talk about
where you need to be really needto have your ducks in a row in
this real estate environment in terms ofgetting pre qualified, preapproved, even a
(01:44:51):
full blown commitment letter before you gobuy a house. What about a reverse
mortgage first mortgage, very simple,based on your age. You can always
assume, if you're thinking about it, forty percent of the value will be
made available to you. I gotsome packets, some pamphlets that I can
send you. I got a bunchat the office that you dropped off too.
Just want to educate yourself to start, and then we could have a
(01:45:12):
discussion. And have you found outwho is being inducted into the baseball It
is that today or tomorrow? It'sthis weekend, says nineteenth to the twenty
second. Adrian Beltray, Todd Helton, Jim Leyland, and Joe Mauer are
the highlights. That's a good bunch. Yeah. Jim Layland was the manager,
Yeah, and Joe Maher was thecatcher. Dude that would hit home
(01:45:35):
runs like crazy. Unfortunately, Ilove I love baseball. I just don't
have three hours to sit around andplay titty. You're getting better. I
think this pitch, this clock,then it has you can see a game
in two hours, two and ahalf hours. Julie and I we were
down to Tampa during the winter.We went to see the Yankee facility.
That's beautiful. Sun just went tothe Yankees Tampa a couple of weeks ago
when they were in town. It'sonly time the stadium fills when the Yankees
(01:45:59):
come. All right, we gotto say goodbye. I we can be
of assistance. It's five one eightfive eight zero one nine one nine five
one eight five eight zero one nineone nine, God blessed, be safe
and we'll see you next week.Thank you for listening to the Retirement Planning
Show hosted by Dave Kopek, wg Wise retirement planning Specialist. If you
would like to talk with Dane orsomeone at the Retirement Planning Group, call
(01:46:21):
five one eight five eight zero onenine one nine. That's five one eight
five eight zero one nine one nineduring business hours, or visit rpg retire
dot com. Their Retirement Planning Grouphas five convenient offices located in Albany,
Maltsa, Glens Falls, Syracuse,and Oneana. Tune in again next week
(01:46:43):
for retirement planning strategies with Dave Kopekright here on WGY's Retirement Planning Show.
The information our services discussed on thisshow is for informational purposes only and is
not intended to be personal financial advice. The investments and services offered by US
may not be suitable for all investors. If you have any doubts as to
the merits of an investment, youshould seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
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