The Fagan Financial Report

July 27th, 2025. 

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Good morning, and welcome to the Capital District's Money and
Investment Program. You're listening to the Fagan Financial Report on
Dennis Fagan. Sitting here with my son Aaron, as we
do every Sunday right here in news Talk A ten
one oh three to one WG. Why what did we
do without air conditioning?

Speaker 2 (00:14):
I know we put this one in and it just
kind of just mean in general, as that society cools down.

Speaker 3 (00:21):
I was reading only like ten percent of homes and
apartments in Europe have air conditioning, you know, I know
it's you don't get the drasticness in Europe.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Maybe you do, I don't know. I have no idea
to be No, you don't. I don't think you're doing
a lot of Europe, you know, so you do get
some of the ninety ninety five degree days.

Speaker 1 (00:38):
But they say that they they say, scientists say that
regulated climate has changed our metabolism. You know that our
metabolism has slowed down because you don't get that that
delta or the change in hot to cold all the time,
most of the delta most of the time. You know

(00:59):
what I want to hear another word, Yeah, butternut squash.

Speaker 3 (01:02):
You know I have I have air conditioning on my
second floor, but not my first floor. That's the first
floor gets hot, but but cold air sinks. It doesn't
really sink though, not through the floor, not through the floor.
But we always say it's basically one week a year
that you're like, but that's it.

Speaker 2 (01:24):
That is it. That is it.

Speaker 3 (01:26):
I've never had ace in any place that I've lived
in ten years.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Well, when I lived in your basement, I tas you did.
I was cold.

Speaker 1 (01:36):
Yeah, I wonder why you're sleeping here at night, poor
jude as may and uh.

Speaker 2 (01:40):
Now I have it.

Speaker 3 (01:41):
Yeah, that's probably had to get it, though it probably
wouldn't have it in our whole house if we didn't
have them.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
So you know, where I grew up, I did myself
and myself and my two brothers in a small cape
and my three sisters on the other side and the
second floor with no asa.

Speaker 3 (01:57):
When used to go on vacation a lot in the
summertime with out me and Sam, you and Mom would
just go hang out. Yeah, fun, you just you know,
probably three four weeks every summer we'd be hold up
and you know you had not and when we stayed
with Grammy, when you no, no, you didn't.

Speaker 2 (02:13):
That's true, that's true.

Speaker 3 (02:14):
I don't know exactly what it was like, but no, no,
but uh yeah, So what else.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
Is going on? Not much?

Speaker 3 (02:21):
Like you're having some issues with your cucumbers? I am,
you know, lemon cucumbers or.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
Yeah, I was, uh Aaron has you know We'll get
to the show in a second with Aaron has you
got a.

Speaker 2 (02:32):
Great, nice garden? Beautiful garden? Away?

Speaker 1 (02:36):
It's nice, it's weedy, but your cucumbers are They're great.
They're dark green, they're they're the English cucumbers, so they're long.
So my my cucumbers are like yellow circular. So I'm like,
what's going on here? I'm reading them watching YouTube. It's
like it needs nitrogen and this n nitrogen. So then
I'm weeding and usually I stick the tag that the

(02:58):
plant comes with. The plants come with in the soil,
but it usually gets knocked over as a soil grows
or the plant grows others to that, so I pick
it up. Their lemon cucumbers. I didn't even know there
was a lemon cucumber. So it's basically shaped like a
lemon and it's yellow. Did you eat one yet one yesterday?

Speaker 2 (03:13):
I say, they're a little tartar, but not much of it.

Speaker 1 (03:15):
They're okay, you know, you got to peel them because
they have like almost like a Yeah.

Speaker 3 (03:19):
I peel mine too, because they're a little prickly. It's
just not worth I peel strips on mind to keep
some of the skin is the most skin is the
most nutritious.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
Okay, cucumber, all right, anyways.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
Let's get to it. Let's get to it before we
don't have any listeners. The beat goes on with the
stock market. Yep, the beat goes on with the stock market.
And President Trump's signing a deal with Japan helped help
certainly our stock market. A massive trade deal with Japan,
sitting tariffs at fifteen percent helps the automakers, certainly their automakers,

(03:53):
It helps aorrotomakers.

Speaker 2 (03:54):
It open some of their.

Speaker 1 (03:56):
Economy up to our goods and services.

Speaker 3 (04:01):
And fifty billion dollars Japan said that they were Trump said,
Japan said that they were investing in the United States.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (04:09):
Export, and I think a lot of this has to
do with putting the pressure on Japanese exports to the
United States. Exports were down twenty six point seven percent
in June, down twenty four point seven percent in May.
You know, obviously you look at you know, a company
like Toyota. I think they're the largest auto auto wheal
manufacturer in the world.

Speaker 3 (04:27):
So she just had good earnings too. I don't know
if they had good rings, but they were at twelve
percent on that news.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
Yeah, shares of Honda up, Nissan up, Mitsubishi up, Mazda
all up on that. And the stock market is continues
to roll along as these trade deals get consummated. The
last think it's yeah, I don't know, we haven't I
haven't seen much on Canada.

Speaker 2 (04:50):
I do know that.

Speaker 1 (04:52):
President Trump is working with the EU on a trade deal.
You know, I think there is that's a little more
contentious really and some of the other ones.

Speaker 3 (05:02):
I think it would be a little bit more contentious
in that I think the EU has a little bit
more backing from their constituents to be a little bit
more contentious with with how we with with with how
we trade we trade with Europe. So I think we
will see it some more back and forth. But you know,
at the end of the day, I think something will
get done, you know.

Speaker 2 (05:23):
And I don't know.

Speaker 3 (05:24):
I'm not saying the the the market is ignoring these tears.
But you know, I don't necessarily think the market is
you know, obviously taken to the taking them into account
as they did in.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
In April or March of this year.

Speaker 3 (05:38):
I think they know that this is a negotiating tactic
now and the deals will get done because they have to.
You know, this is a global economy now that you know,
we do have to you know, maybe we maybe we've
been taking unfair we've had you know, unfair advantage taken.
But I think, you know, we do need all countries

(05:59):
to work together in this you know, global economy with
you know, I think the S and P getting forty
percent of their revenue from overseas now, so I think
that's really important for that, you know, to continue with
innovation and with our companies that are domiciled here.

Speaker 1 (06:15):
I would agree, And I think I think what we've
seen lately is that that rebound from the early April
Low's the realization, as you just mentioned a little while ago,
the President Trump and the Trump administration, this is a
negotiating tactic rather than rather than his you know, his

(06:36):
his policy. The other thing I too, I think too,
is that it's yet to play out. It's yet to
play out. I think it takes time for this whole
thing to to develop. It takes time for some of
the second derivative type of results to ripple through the economy.

(06:57):
And as of right now, the market is taking that
taking news uh positively.

Speaker 2 (07:03):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (07:04):
We're in the midst of earning season, so we'll see
how that plays out. But I think all in all,
the the president has begun to focus more on deregulation
and the more on growth and less on tariffs. He's
downplayed that ever since the morning of April ninth, and
that's why we've had such a rebound. And you know,
and again we talked about our newsletter last week that's

(07:24):
going out to our clients. Just appeared today in the
mal I know Jacqueline's working on it, you know, putting in,
stuffing them and getting them out. I think that, you know,
as long as he continues to focus on that, I
think I think, I think it would be positive and
one of the one of the one of the biggest
things that when when he accused uh President Obama of
trees and the market didn't. The market's used to his

(07:47):
his rhetoric, his bombastic nature, you know, we were speaking
Europe a little while ago. The ECB on Thursday, Yeah,
kept interestrates the same, Uh, they.

Speaker 2 (07:59):
They growth tilted downside, you know.

Speaker 3 (08:03):
Basically they went on to say that you know, they're
gonna have there's gonna continue to be tariff turmoil. And
I think that that's what we've been saying as well.
And you know, yeah, maybe maybe the Fed could cut
half a percentage point. You know, I don't think that
would do many positives or negatives to the economy, but
I guess it could signal to investors that, hey, you know,
we will be cutting rates when we think that, when

(08:25):
we think it's you know, appropriate.

Speaker 2 (08:26):
But I think that you know, the biggest I think.

Speaker 3 (08:29):
The biggest fear to the market or you know, I
guess headwind to the market right now is this, you know,
tariff turmoil and the uncertainty that these the uncertainty that
uncertainty brings.

Speaker 2 (08:41):
You know.

Speaker 3 (08:42):
Like so just from a business standpoint, if if if
everyone just pumps the brakes a little bit, and if
they don't know what the next six months three months
are going to look like, you know, do they halt
cap back spending on the infrastructure side, you know, but
then at the same time, we had Google come out,
you know, and we can talk at that a little
bit later about and they had, you know, actually increased

(09:04):
their capac spending. So, you know, I think between the
EU and the United States right now, you know, they say,
you know, even I think they go on to say that,
you know, the environment is exceptionally uncertain, especially because of
trade dispute. So I think, you know, on the uncertain
I think we want to clear this uncertainty out of
the out of the way for the you know, the
market for that next leg higher.

Speaker 1 (09:25):
And and and and we'll see, we'll certainly see how
how that thing plays out. But again, the e c
B held rate European Central Bank held rates firm. But
the ECB has cut rates from four percent to two
percent over the past year or so. And we're down,
I believe, fifty basis points from more high, from four
and a half to four. Uh. So, you know, and
that's President Trump met with jar Powell sometime this week.

(09:48):
And I would love to have been a fly on
the wall during that meeting to see exactly what, uh
what was said between both of them. I wonder if
there was anyone else there, there must have been other
people at the meeting support staff and the like. Christine Leguard,
ECB president, said that, you know, the europet performed better
than expected in the first quarter, but that, as you

(10:11):
mentioned earlier, risk was tilted to the downside.

Speaker 3 (10:15):
We may see one more rate cut this year, but
the ECB is waiting to see if the threatened in
position of US tariffs of thirty percent on EU goods
from August first can be avoided.

Speaker 1 (10:24):
You know, I agree with I'm not. I'm not a
big believer in the European renaissance really with their stock market,
You're not. Why not? I just don't think they have
the growth drivers. I think you might see a regression
to the mean, back to.

Speaker 2 (10:45):
Back to.

Speaker 1 (10:47):
Normal evaluation because the valuations have been suppressed. But I
really don't see, you know, a continuation of the powerful
move vire.

Speaker 2 (10:58):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (10:59):
HF International is up twenty three point four to six
percent year to date as of you know, one o'clock
on on Thursday, So you know, it's done quite well,
and I think people have flocked to a little I
do think it's it's getting a little bit into the
overvalued territory because you know, I do think it was
more of a flock to safety trade as opposed to
anything else. Now, I don't think we've seen anything come

(11:20):
out that has said these companies are doing exceptional. It's
just that I think people might be fleeing the United
States because of the uncertainty a little bit, and you
might might be seeing born investors investing a little bit
more in Europe.

Speaker 2 (11:32):
I think it's a way more of a valuation.

Speaker 3 (11:34):
Play than it is anything else, and those tend to
be trades as opposed to That's.

Speaker 2 (11:37):
What I think.

Speaker 1 (11:38):
That's what I don't think the European VGK is more
of a trade than it is a secular move. But
it's up twenty some percent this year.

Speaker 3 (11:47):
Yeah, some ways that we have invested in it is SCCHF,
it's shab International Equity, it's you know, obviously one hundred
percent international. We own the DGT, which is the now
global I think it's about fifty two percent in the
United States.

Speaker 2 (12:02):
Let me just you know, know exactly what it is.

Speaker 3 (12:04):
It's I think it's fifty two percent United States twenty
seven percent, let me just.

Speaker 2 (12:10):
Pop that up. But you know, it's pretty diverse.

Speaker 3 (12:13):
It has a point five expense ratio two point four
to four percent dividend yield. But it is you know,
fifty five percent in America, twenty seven twenty eight percent
Greater Europe, and the remainder in Greater Asia with its
largest holding in Asia and.

Speaker 2 (12:28):
Japan which is about ten percent.

Speaker 3 (12:30):
So it's nice and diverse, and it pairs well with
you know, I guess like a tech centric S and
P five hundred because it's only fifteen percent tech, so
it's half you know, fifty percent weighted in tech and
you know a little bit more in cyclicals, twenty one
percent in financial services. Then you got ten percent in healthcare,
six percent in consumer defensive. And you know, IOWA is

(12:52):
another one that we own that's doing well this year.
It's uh, I don't know the exact name. I Shares
Global one hundred, So that's about eighty percent in I
think it's eighty eighty one percent in America and fourteen
fifteen percent in Europe and five percent in Asia. And
you know it's up about eleven percent this year. So

(13:13):
you know, investing internationally has worked out so far this year.
But I guess I would be a little bit, you know,
maybe a little bit more hesitant going forward, you know,
I do think it's smart to have, you know, a
decent allocation five ten percent in international and emerging markets.

Speaker 1 (13:30):
So we're using the DGT, the IOO, and the SHF
basically as are our foreign plays on the ETF side, Yeah,
the international pretty much.

Speaker 2 (13:40):
The IOO being global. What are the largest holdings. I
can tell you that the IOO, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (13:46):
And then we were Video is thirteen percent. Microsoft is eleven, Apple,
Amazon and Vogo, Google. So you know, again it's very
heavily weighted. I think you don't get down to S
and P SAV SAP, which is less percent. So it's
you know, it's a US centric colding.

Speaker 1 (14:05):
But so five five to ten percent overseas, I lean
towards more towards ten me too, and uh and some
of those are three ETFs that I think you can
that you can take a look at. But you know,
the other thing too, is that you got to be careful.
Like I'm looking at the three month trail and the
VGK it's up around thirteen or fourteen percent.

Speaker 2 (14:24):
Or what's it up? It's up.

Speaker 1 (14:29):
I'm sorry, I think it's up a little more than
maybe not. I think it's up eighteen percent. The US
is up thirteen point five two percent to three month trail,
and you think, well, that's great, but that we're coming,
that's coming us, taking us right off the bottom. The
US is up eighteen point eight percent over that same period.
So you know, generally speaking, we wait mostly towards the
US five or ten percent overseas and go from there.

(14:52):
Other things really move in the market that I think
you'll look at this year and this month, you know,
and I don't know if you even know this. Yes,
the Dow Jones utility average recently closed at a record
high this past week, and I think most people don't
realize it's a first record high since late last year,

(15:13):
and the utility average had been lagging. The utility average
a inverse indicator really of.

Speaker 2 (15:22):
Optimism. Right.

Speaker 1 (15:23):
Well, also interestrates, his interest rates go down, utilities do well.
But I think this the other thing that's affecting the
utility average really is, uh, the fact that interest rates
are going down and regulated utilities basically have a built
in price increase and they and they usually pay good dividend.
Jose growing just the demand for electricity, Residential Consumption Data Center.

Speaker 3 (15:45):
Someone else said that, you know, maybe it was tourist
and slot came out. If you can continue to talk
for a little bit, Iverache, I can find it.

Speaker 2 (15:51):
But you know, they said the head of yeah, pollow
Asset Management, you can no.

Speaker 1 (16:00):
No, I was just saying that, you know that that
growing demand for electricity basically because of data centers and
also if you look at just residential consumption with obviously
air conditioners, but also just the electronics that are now
built into the household is a big thing. We don't
really have a big exposure to utilities. Yes, they said

(16:20):
a record next era down about you know, it's year
data is about three or four percent.

Speaker 3 (16:27):
It is just it did just you know, it's funny,
it's twelve percent of the Excel you and you know
when it did hit its record high, it had poor
earnings and it was down about six or seven percent
the past couple of days.

Speaker 2 (16:37):
But you know, I think it's a good company, and
I think, you know, with.

Speaker 3 (16:40):
A well diversified portfolio, you should have not one of
every single of the eleven major sectors, but you know
at least seven or eight of them. Really, So yeah,
as a three point one one percent dividend yield, it's
it's I don't know what what's the word it's predictable,
and it has it has seven you know, seventy percent
of its h.

Speaker 2 (17:03):
Never mind.

Speaker 1 (17:05):
Anyways, So so I think when you look at some
of those areas, I was surprised to see utilities uh
doing doing hitting it hitting.

Speaker 2 (17:14):
An all time high. Uh.

Speaker 1 (17:16):
We also have meme stocks. I read an article from
uh Young Lee a couple of days ago meme stocks
the Coles actually now Coles, krispy Kreme.

Speaker 2 (17:27):
Last year was stock games stock.

Speaker 1 (17:31):
You know, I don't see first of all, I don't
see the coverage on meme stocks that there once was.
And I also don't see the really the enthusiasm you're
you're on some some stock uh sites like a Reddit
stuff like that, and what what's the tenor there?

Speaker 3 (17:48):
I don't you know this is it's it's kind of
an interesting article. I didn't read it yet. But what
I find somewhat interesting is, you know, I think you
have the A m CS and uh, you know, the
game stocks, but this this this one is talking about
go Pro, Krispy Kreme and Coles. But what I kind
of find interesting is when thinking about meme stocks. You know,

(18:09):
you even a year or so ago, it was like
rocket Labs. But now you're seeing Rocket Labs. You're like, okay,
this is a formidable company, you know, So I think
you have to separate, you know. You know, Meme stock
isn't just a stock that goes up twenty percent, you know,
it's kind of I think it's more of you know,
buying it because you have fomo like you know, Record
Lives might have went up twenty percent, but you know,
they're really making headways and new technologies that you might

(18:32):
be viable in five or ten years, and they have
revenue now.

Speaker 2 (18:35):
So I think you have to you.

Speaker 3 (18:37):
Know, I think you have to like weed out what's
it just swing a memestock in like a one percent
stock that you think, Okay, you know, if I hold
on to this for ten or fifteen years, this could
be one of you know, a large, large company.

Speaker 2 (18:48):
So I think you'll, you know, if you know, and
everyone has.

Speaker 3 (18:51):
Some of these in their portfolio, like I have a few,
and but the ones that I buy aren't the ones
that I think, oh, maybe I'll get a fifty percent
pop in two weeks or okay, you know, I'm to
hold onto this because I think in five or ten
years it might be a viable business.

Speaker 2 (19:06):
And I can take the ups in the down.

Speaker 3 (19:08):
So I think if you're investing in like stocks like these,
you know you have to. It's really hard to you know,
I don't know, it's not really investing, it's trying to
get in and get out at a trade as opposed
to all right, like you know, like a rocket labs
that you actually think, Okay, you know, I think that
this could be something in the next ten, fifteen, twenty
years that could really have its place in this in

(19:30):
this new economy.

Speaker 2 (19:31):
And I think you're right.

Speaker 1 (19:33):
My guess is that twenty five years ago Amazon would
be would have been considered a meme stock. Yeah, you know,
so I think I think you've got to be careful.
I think when you're pulling things off the message boards,
just riding a momentum fomo wave, I think that's where
you have dangerous I think, I think you want to
look at stocks that perhaps are speculative, but have a

(19:55):
chart that hasn't gone parabolic, and then dollar cost average
into them. And I've received a few calls from clients
on this ramical resources based upon just mining in the
like of rare earth materials.

Speaker 2 (20:13):
And when do you sell it? That's hard too. It's like,
all right, so.

Speaker 3 (20:16):
You jump in and it's up twenty percent in a week,
Then do you sell it? Do you hope for forty
Do you think it's going to just key continue to
go up, because that's not the keyse So my guess
is it's the hardest part really is like, all right,
if you buy something, you have to kind of be
self aware that it is like a meme stock, and
sometimes you just got you should get in and get out.
You know, we don't do this, we don't do this
for clients at all, but you know, you're just kind

(20:39):
of brought up the meme stock and you know, I
don't know, you have to think of, you know, what's
the story behind the stock. If the story is just
it being a meme stock, then you probably shouldn't be
investing in.

Speaker 1 (20:49):
Oh or in the fundamentals behind it. Yeah, I think
you know, most of these stocks don't have the solid
fundamentals that they need to go with the story, right, Yeah,
you know, when you when you melt together this story
the fundamentals and the technicals, which is the trading patterns,
you know that then you have an answer. And I
think most of these meme stocks. You have a trading

(21:10):
pattern that's that's not really investing, its speculative.

Speaker 2 (21:14):
Yeah, you know, it's gambling.

Speaker 1 (21:16):
Anyways, a couple of the things I think we can
we can talk about in the first half of the show.
Second half the show is interesting as Vanguard survey on
the hidden value of financial advice. Let's talk about this there.
How to talk is is UH Crypto Speculative Capital Group,
the American funds? How do you talk to your clients

(21:36):
about bitcoin?

Speaker 2 (21:38):
Uh?

Speaker 1 (21:39):
Carl Kwajia Capital Group, which is an American fund's portfolio manager.
For a long time, people have been somewhat skeptical of bitcoin.
There are naysayers who raise a lot of questions about it.
The debate has gone on for years. But as far
as I'm concerned, that debate is over and suggests that
you know, crypto is here to say. You could say
you might go up and might go down. But as

(22:00):
Jamie Diamond once said, I believe was Jamie Diamond or
Charlie Munger, maybe both of them said you know this
is this is going to zero. And I think that
that that potential I believe is not there anymore.

Speaker 3 (22:13):
Yeah, I agree, but at the same time. You know,
you have to be correctly allocated in that you will
still see the swings in my opinion.

Speaker 2 (22:22):
And in the in the vlatility.

Speaker 3 (22:24):
You know, maybe not as before, but it'll continue to
it'll continue to trade like a risk asset.

Speaker 2 (22:29):
You know, I don't spec spec it risk slash speculative.

Speaker 1 (22:32):
I think I think it's I think it's somewhat specuative.
I also think you run. I still think you know investing.
Even though we are fiduciaries, we still have the responsibility
of putting investments in people's portfolios that they can live with.
I don't think the average investor can live with bitcoin
and and in cryptocurrency in their portfolio. They still think

(22:56):
it's out on the spectrum unfortunately. I think the vast
majority of clients. I think the issue is when it
becomes mainstream is probably when most of the the opportunities
out of that out of that asset class.

Speaker 3 (23:10):
And we can talk a little bit about it after
the break, but that's the same you know, when you
were talking about bitcoin and you know what investors can stomach.
You know, that's the same thing how I feel about like,
why are we you know that now? I think they're
putting into law that now investors can invest in private
equity in their four to one case. And I'm just like,
I don't think people need more choices, you know, especially

(23:32):
in things that are so non transparent, like one thing
you don't want to mess with is your is your retirement.
And I don't think introducing all investments, private equity type
investments into into into four to one case is the
best thing to do.

Speaker 1 (23:46):
I agree, there's got to be some sort of uh measure, yeah,
or check as to who's allowed to do it. But
right now, it's ten thirty on the station depend upon
for news, weather and information, News Talk A ten and
one oh three one w g Y, Good morning, and
welcome back to the second half five of the Capitol
District's Money and Investment program. You're listening to the Fagan
Financial Report. IM Dennis Fagan, sitting here with my son Aaron,

(24:07):
as we do every Sunday right here in news Talk
K ten one oh three one w GI. I'm just
looking at Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which is at ninety four
dollars a share right now, ninety three six ninety three,
ninety four.

Speaker 2 (24:18):
The low in twenty twenty.

Speaker 1 (24:19):
Two was six, so you're talking about something that's up
fifteen sixteen times what the low was.

Speaker 2 (24:27):
You know, I think.

Speaker 1 (24:29):
As an investor you have to be more careful right
now if you're buying potential and selling a lack thereof.
And if you look at bitcoin, and just because it's higher,
doesn't mean it has less potential risk adjusted potential. Yes,
it has less potential because you're buying it ninety six
versus six, but it doesn't mean it's a worse entry

(24:51):
point than it was, you know, two or.

Speaker 2 (24:53):
Three years ago.

Speaker 1 (24:55):
You know that's true, you know, because if you look
at risk involved, bitcoin is is you know, and I
think crypto is.

Speaker 2 (25:02):
Here to stay.

Speaker 1 (25:03):
Yes, it's going to be violatile, Yes it may go down,
but it's it's much more of a predictable asset. And
it's just again you use Amazon, the same thing. Amazon
is well above where it was twenty five twenty five
years ago, and yet it's still is a good investment
and it's still you know, on a risk adjusted basis,
you know, provides opportunity. So just because you're buying something

(25:27):
higher does not mean that you're taking more risk. It
does mean, yes, there is less potential for gain mathematically,
but the risk does not go up because the fundamentals
of the underlying asset or asset class.

Speaker 2 (25:42):
May have improved.

Speaker 1 (25:43):
It's just like anything else in life. So you know,
but I think when when when it becomes when things
become mainstream, when we start hearing from our from our
clients about bitcoin or about risky assets, meme assets in general,
that's more sign a function of the the frothiness of
the of the stock marketing anything else. And I can

(26:04):
say there maybe a little bit, but we don't we
have them again, a lot of calls about hey by
it's mostly the same people, the same handful or two
handfuls of people.

Speaker 3 (26:12):
Tell they're watching CNBC or on the Moley Fool or
something like that, that you have questions that stem from
them doing their own outside.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
Research, right, but just and then circle them back to
the private market assets as far as a four oh one,
k uh.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
Yeah, So the White House declined to comment, but basically,
you know, the move could significantly broad investors access to
alternative assets, you know, private equity, real estate, venture capital,
hedge funds, and uh yeah, you know, I just think
that sometimes it's like, uh, you don't want too many choices, right,

(26:50):
you want to you know, if history is any guide
that if you invest your money in the S and
P five hundred or bonds or global bond index or
you know, the agg aggregate bond index, you know, at
least you're gonna get returns that have some historical uh,
you know, perspective. You know, when when you get into

(27:11):
you know, private equity, real estate, venture capital, hedge funds,
you know, the transparency isn't there. And I just think,
you know, you don't want too many investments choices, and
I think this is this could be one of those
times at and I just don't think it's necessary. You know,
I think the four to one K has enough choices
right now, between you know, global funds, you know, just

(27:32):
stable income funds, a small cab, mid cap, large cab.
You know, I just don't think it's necessary, right And
there's also is it is to get into private placements
in the Lake, you have to be what's called an
accredited investor, which requires income uh or two hundred thousand
dollars I believe three hundred thousand dollars if you're if

(27:53):
you have a may, if you're married, and a net
worth of more than one million dollars, you know, in
and around those areas. And I think, you know, is
the SEC going to require investors in private placements in
four one ks to be incredited to investors or are
they going to just require and I heard this the
other day, just passing of an exam or something like that,

(28:15):
so that there would be more knowledge based than asset based.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
So we'll see. But I agree with you. I think
The Wall.

Speaker 3 (28:20):
Street Journal goes on to say, you know, private private
markets would give account holders great opportunity for growth and
long term rewards, allowing investors to capitalize on private equity,
venture capital, real estate hedge funds, which aren't on public exchanges.
It's like, you know, I just don't think it's smart
to take that much risk in your retirement portfolio with things.

Speaker 2 (28:42):
That aren't as transparent. So that's kind of I guess
I agreed, I think. And let's touch on some earnings.

Speaker 1 (28:48):
Where do you want to start Alphabet, Alphabet, Chipotle, Tesla.

Speaker 3 (28:53):
I think it's smart to start with Alphabet. It's one
of our largest holdings. Ifs not, this my second largest whole,
you know, and Alphabet just continues to be in that
great earnings pop then pullback mode.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
And Rodney Dangerfield, I get no.

Speaker 3 (29:11):
Respect, I get exactly and I think that you know,
it's it's I just disagree with it. I think from
trying to pop it up right now on at one
twenty nine.

Speaker 2 (29:21):
On Thursday, the stock is up.

Speaker 3 (29:26):
One point four percent, but it's of about three point
nine percent at one point during the day. You know,
revenue came in at ninety six point four to three
billion as opposed to ninety four EPs. Earnings two thirty
one verse two eighteen. You know, YouTube revenue nine point
eight verse nine point five six, Cloud thirteen point six
two verse thirteen point one to one in traffic acquisition
costs fourteen point seven one as opposed to fourteen point

(29:48):
one eight with revenue growth fourteen percent year over year,
you know, higher than the ten point nine percent Wall
Street expected. So I think what you kind of have
to get from this is they do have multiple levers
to pull, levers to pull. They have a lot of
different uh you know, avenues of of of revenue between YouTube,
Google Cloud and just their advertising business in search and weimo,

(30:13):
you know, they just don't they don't really get their respect.

Speaker 2 (30:15):
I guess that other companies do.

Speaker 3 (30:17):
You know, I think it's a lot of it has
to do with just being an AD driven market and
then a lot of competition.

Speaker 2 (30:22):
You know.

Speaker 3 (30:23):
I think even the day, you know, Google has learnings,
the next day open Ai comes out and says they're
upgrading their open Ai to open Ai you know five
or whatever it is. So, you know, I think that
it's a great company, has great fundamentals.

Speaker 2 (30:36):
You know, it's.

Speaker 3 (30:37):
Uh at a discount to the market, trading trading especially
trading at a discount to its peers really as well.
So I think it's a great company, very well run,
and I think it has its hand like in the
present but also the future as well. And you know,
I think you're going to start to see way more
more with Google Cloud as well as there There There

(30:57):
There Weymo, which is their driverless car service.

Speaker 1 (30:59):
Search is holding them back, I mean, Search is not
holding the back and in the in the belief that
the search which which they have, I think they have
an ninety percent market share, and I I and I
think that is that is a concern.

Speaker 2 (31:11):
It is. You saw the same thing with Intel.

Speaker 3 (31:13):
You know, at one point Intel had like eighty five
percent market share of CPUs and that's all well and
good for the time being, but that's also you know,
a pretty great risk going forward when you see other
companies innovate.

Speaker 2 (31:26):
So I think, you know, when you see so much
innovate innovation in the.

Speaker 3 (31:29):
Space that Google's in, that's obviously worrisome to to you know,
as a Google shareholder, with you know, our company is
just going to kind of continue to nip at their
heels and in their most profitable segment.

Speaker 1 (31:42):
But I think because I was, I was mostly uh,
you know, I'm very familiar with YouTube. You are now
I am, And I think that I think a lot
of a lot of people are getting more and more
familiar with YouTube as an actual channel. I mean, if
you look at if you look at TikTok, if you
look at reels, if you look at Facebook self, I

(32:03):
don't know, call it self. Publication is becoming more and
more pervasive in society. And I think that And I'm
not fooling around right now, and I think I can.

Speaker 2 (32:15):
I can.

Speaker 1 (32:16):
I we were mom and I are going camping. You know,
I bought a ll bean uh screen screen?

Speaker 2 (32:22):
Did I did? I try to put it up myself?

Speaker 3 (32:24):
No?

Speaker 1 (32:24):
I just watch YouTube. A five minute video.

Speaker 3 (32:27):
And you know, I think even Doug was talking about
how you know, he has a son, Connor, who loves
YouTube shorts. It's like this revenue sharing model that they
use with uh, you know, content creators, and I think
it's really big with the younger generations as well. So
you know, they are making uh, you know, headway in
these new h new businesses. I think, you know, they

(32:48):
they just kind of continuously be, They'll continuously be you know,
hampered by you know, the whole uh open a eyes
of the world. Who will you know, try to eat
at their search? But you know, I think they have
the first mover advantage. They have name name, I don't know, recognition,

(33:11):
so you know, I don't know. And they're very They're
fundamentally very undervalue in my opinion. So I wouldn't jump
off the ship yet, No I would.

Speaker 1 (33:19):
I wouldn't either, And I also think that just an
underappreciated asset, you know, is there.

Speaker 2 (33:26):
You know, there was a WAYMO.

Speaker 1 (33:28):
There's self driving division and they don't get any respect
for that. And and by most measures, their technology is superior,
if not is at par I'm par with, if not superior.

Speaker 2 (33:44):
To Tesla.

Speaker 1 (33:45):
And I think that's you know, the next eight or
nine years, that's gonna that's gonna be a big difference.
So i'd like I personally own alphabet. I've voted for
quite some time, and I would not you know, as
you said earlier, jump that ship.

Speaker 3 (33:57):
Yeah, you know, speaking of you know, technology and technology
g earnings. Tesla also had earnings on Thursday. The stock
was down. You know, they had earnings on Wednesday.

Speaker 2 (34:09):
The stock as of.

Speaker 3 (34:09):
Right now at one o'clock on Thursday is that it
is down eight percent, so you know, obviously not great.
Earnings for share were forty cents verse forty three expected
revenue at twenty two point five verse twenty two point
seven billion. The stock opened up down four percent, and
it kind of continued to drift lower. Auto revenue came
in at sixteen point seven billion dollars, down from nineteen

(34:30):
point nine the same quarter. I think it's biggest revenue
drop from a percentage basis in over a decade. And
you know, you saw their revenue from sales credits declined
from to four hundred and thirty nine million from eight
hundred and ninety the year prior, so fourteen point four
percent year over year.

Speaker 2 (34:49):
Vehicle deliveries for the second quarter.

Speaker 3 (34:53):
Yeah, you know, I think I think it's such a
polarizing company that you know, and we don't own that
much for sharehold for our clients, but we do own
some mostly at their requests, mostly at mostly at their request.

Speaker 2 (35:09):
I think they're in a tough spot, you know.

Speaker 3 (35:10):
I think in the past, and we were talking about
this a little bit this morning, that what Tesla has
had is the benefit of the doubt. You know, they're
working on artificial intelligence, they're working on the driverless car,
They're gonna have a thirty thousand dollars car one day,
and you know, a lot of those things are I
think a little bit farther than down the line than
they talk about and now. But they've always had, you know,
the vehicle sales to back them up a little bit.

Speaker 2 (35:33):
You know, they've had amazing growth in the EV.

Speaker 3 (35:36):
Market particularly and also sales, and now you don't see that,
you know, you're seeing declining, you know, sales from a
vehicle's perspective. So I think I think they could be
in trouble for for a little bit. You know, everyone
says this groc their AI is great, it's great, it's great.
It's great, but you know, my I guess, you know,
not fear, but you know, I'm a little bit skeptical

(35:58):
about the company because I think we're a little bit
away from you know, AI being more than a glorified
search engine. You know, I think we're gonna, I think
we're gonna still build up the you know, the foundation
of artificial intelligence for the next year or two. And
I don't know if if Tesla can, I think I
think they're going to have a hard time keeping up.

Speaker 1 (36:20):
I think the real you know, somebody said that today
they're being viewed as as an automobile manufacturer, right, that's
why they're down eight percent, because they're disappointing deliveries and
the like. At other times they're viewed as energy storage,
energy generation and the like. And I think that that's

(36:41):
where that's if they're gonna be. If they're an automobile company,
they're in trouble with these valuations. But they're real lure,
so to speak, is in those other areas.

Speaker 2 (36:50):
It is.

Speaker 3 (36:51):
But you know, when you have eighty ninety percent of
your revenue being cars, you know, it's it's they will
have to you know, show some revenue and revenue and
they have the revenue growth, but the revenue in other
of those aspects.

Speaker 1 (37:04):
And I would say, you know, and here's here's I
think my take on Tesla. I just don't think you
need to go there right now, you know, you know,
I I you know, and you know, in twenty twenty
one and had a higher four hunder and fourteen dollars
a share, it's treated in three h five right now,
in a low one seventy nine. So if you bought
it at that in twenty twenty two, a high a

(37:26):
four h two in twenty twenty three, two ninety nine,
so right about here. In twenty twenty four forty eight,
and in.

Speaker 3 (37:32):
The first three quarters of last year, Tesla earned forty
three percent of their profits from credits.

Speaker 2 (37:42):
You know.

Speaker 3 (37:42):
So with with this new administration, what we saw in
the big beautiful bail that you know, the selling regulatory
credits won't go as far as they used to.

Speaker 2 (37:51):
So you know, it's just such a hard company to value,
you know.

Speaker 3 (37:55):
We uh, when I was getting my masters, that was
actually the final thing. It was in finance, and it was,
you know, do your pitch on Tesla's evaluation. And I'm
not I don't remember what ours was, to be honest
at the time, but I remember the variety of answers
from two hundred dollars a share to five thousand, right,
you know, so I think that you know that obviously

(38:16):
that was you know, a group of students. But at
the same time, I think that's pretty you know, you
hear Kathy would come on from Mark Invests say it
should be four thousand dollars a share, and I and
you have other people come on and say, hey, you know,
this company shouldn't be worth this much. So, you know,
I think it's almost in that what with Uncle Chris,
what was his bucket? Too hard bucket? Yeah, yeah, you know,

(38:37):
so I think, you know, for the time being, it's
one of those companies it's almost too hard to value.

Speaker 1 (38:41):
Yeah, and just not not really. You know, I said,
what do you think of Tesla? You say, I don't. Yeah,
you know, I think that, you know, that's hard one
another a stock that disappointed, and we do have a
piece of it. And I don't think we have a
lot of Chipotle. I know we don't have a lot
of it, but it's down a bit today, total revenue
of only three percent, low single digits. First is what

(39:02):
most people thought were going to be upper single digits.
That however, that earnings per share, earnings per share that
was generated from that revenue in line with expectations. But
again revenue came in light. Same store sales actually fell
four percent, So yeah, they have they had higher net
sales only because they have more stores, but same store

(39:23):
sales down four percent. That comes on the heels of
a slight decline from this from the prior quarter and
worse than the estimates by about thirty three percent. So
the stocks down a bit. We do own some I
wouldn't sell it in through here. They're going through, you know,
a management change.

Speaker 3 (39:44):
Over the year, three hundred plus stores every single year.
You know, we're on Hoosic Street. They're opening one probably
within the next year. But you know, did you hear
it's only mobile ordering. A lot of no inside and
only mobile ordering. So it's just drive through your mobile
order and you tell them you're order, and.

Speaker 2 (40:01):
You know, I think mobile orders via the app. I
don't know, right, I tell you a lot of places,
a lot of places are doing that.

Speaker 1 (40:08):
I mean, I you go, I mean I was in
McDonald's and look, I'm sixty three. I would say, I'm
average technology technologically, maybe maybe above just because of my job,
I know. But you're going to McDonald's and you know
there it's just credit for somebody. Well, I'm just kind
of saying, you know.

Speaker 2 (40:25):
Even McDonalds.

Speaker 3 (40:25):
You ever pull up to McDonald's drive through, I do,
and they're like, are you ordering on the mobile app?
And then you go on their mobile app and there's
like seven or eight free things that you can get
just by signing up, So they're really pushing that.

Speaker 1 (40:35):
I don't want the mobile app of everything, you know,
I'm gonna have mobile app.

Speaker 3 (40:38):
Of everything, a mobile of Ted's fish fry. I love
Ted's fish, love Ted's fish. Right, I would take a
mobile app. They're gonna get me free fries I would
get if the Ted's.

Speaker 2 (40:45):
Had a mobile you will. But I don't want a
mobile app of twelve different things, you know. But you're right.
If they're giving away free and that's what they do,
they're just trying to get you to download it then
spammy with ads.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
But when I was in there yesterday yesterday night, when well,
I was Mom gets Coke Found, Mom loves Found.

Speaker 2 (41:05):
That's that's her.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
That's her real addiction, right, she doesn't drink coffee. That's
their only vice probably to that, right, that's true. Then
he lived, he's still alive. Yeah, you know, but you know,
you go in there, there's a few tables, but you're
ordering off that kiosk thing, you know, and it's it's

(41:26):
it's a little tricky.

Speaker 2 (41:27):
You know.

Speaker 1 (41:28):
Are you a member, aren't you a member? Log in,
move it to your basket, do this, do that? You
know for somebody like me, I'm just turning around going
out and going to Stuarts and buy myself a bottle
of coke, would know the difference, yes, crap. So so anyway,
so that's so uh yes, a lot of I don't know.

(41:52):
I mean, they would know, but I think the concern
there is the same thing that the well, the Chipotle
was never really a place to.

Speaker 2 (41:59):
Out like a Starbucks pace.

Speaker 3 (42:00):
Like, you just have so many options right now, you know,
I don't know, it's tough.

Speaker 2 (42:06):
I got Chipole this week though, I like chibolet so.

Speaker 1 (42:09):
My man Chicpole yesterday. So the leftovers and refrigerator, yeah.

Speaker 2 (42:13):
It is good.

Speaker 1 (42:14):
It is good, and it's fresh and and I and
I would not sell them short. Scott boat Wright's a
good CEO. I would not sell them short. I would
just kind of wait to see that player. It's also
pretty richly valued. It's very rich chapole, so I think
you got you gotta be careful about that.

Speaker 3 (42:32):
McDonald's has done a good job turning things around too.
So snack wraps back.

Speaker 1 (42:37):
Probaly projected earnings in twenty twenty six for Chipotleio a
dollar forty two. They're trading at forty five bucks a
share right now, so you're talking about probably thirty one
thirty two times next year's earnings. That I don't expect
it to grow about fifteen or sixteen percent. They are
in a range that they bottomed out in April when
right before the Trump's pivot on April ninth, So you know,

(42:59):
probably there's not a heck of a lot of risk here.
The stock gets sold off from fifty nine or fifty
eight a month.

Speaker 3 (43:06):
If your ownA just had really good earnings too, that
I sorry, I just cut you off. But I do
think that you know what I do like about this deregulation,
and you know you're not getting as many credits, But
I do think that Torson Slack came out with something
with this week said you like, ninety percent of new
energy projects are renewable energies, and you know, I'm not
for four against renewable energy, but I am.

Speaker 2 (43:27):
For profitable energy.

Speaker 3 (43:29):
And I think we're going to see strides in the
next three, four, five, six years about companies adopting these
new energy technologies.

Speaker 2 (43:35):
Because they are profitable.

Speaker 3 (43:36):
And I think that's kind of what you want to
see from the energy sector, is these projects being developed
because they're profitable and not just because they're getting freaking
credits thrown at them. All right, So I think I
think now you're going to see companies like ge Verona
make really huge headways in the energy space and the
renewable energy space, because these energies are going to start
to really become profitable, and they're going to start to

(43:58):
be the ones that to power all these data centers
and all these cloud projects that a lot of the
companies like Amazon, like Meta are taking.

Speaker 2 (44:06):
Are really starting to take on.

Speaker 1 (44:07):
And that would bode well for eveno electricity, you know,
even next Terra.

Speaker 2 (44:12):
You know.

Speaker 3 (44:12):
So I think, yeah, I think I think it's kind
of it's an exciting time.

Speaker 1 (44:16):
And energy and you know, it is an exciting time
and energy and utilities.

Speaker 2 (44:22):
It is, you know, and I think it is.

Speaker 1 (44:25):
After a long real but they had total revenue up
twenty one percent, adjusted revenue up ten ten point two
billion of twenty three percent, earnings per share gap burnings
at dollar eighty seven of fifty six percent. I think
they're they're hitting on all cylinders. I don't think as
Boeing moves moves into uh more and more getting there. Yeah,

(44:48):
there their stuff together and producing more and more Boeing.
They do a lot of work with the Boeing seven
eighty seven, So I think yeah. And I also think
that and Trump's done a lot for domestic industry and
it'll probably continue to do it. One way to play
that that that we've used it, and I think we've

(45:10):
got to get more of that over time is ai
r R, which is the first trust, the American Industrial
Renaissance et F.

Speaker 3 (45:17):
And it did lag for a long time, but it's
really really starting to pick up.

Speaker 2 (45:21):
It's six months you're today, it's up eleven percent. Yeah,
but what it's what's it's six months? It is almost
the month is up.

Speaker 3 (45:34):
Twenty six percent, So it's really starting to make some headway.
And I don't think it's that expensive, you know, I
think it's uh, I got a weighted piece twenty five little.

Speaker 2 (45:44):
But I think it's a good place to be.

Speaker 1 (45:46):
And I think it's kind of in the wheelhouse of
of what what investors.

Speaker 2 (45:50):
About three minutes left? What else do you get three
minutes left? What else do I've got that?

Speaker 1 (45:54):
Uh that I think investors or listeners would like to know. Well,
we can always go beyond the news. We take a
look at that. Let's see here, Yeah, let's go to
beyond the news. We'll touch on Vanguard next week. As
far as Vanguard survey reveals hidden value, we could do
a whole.

Speaker 2 (46:11):
Hap hidden you know.

Speaker 3 (46:12):
So it's kind of self promotion hidden value of financial advisors.
But it's true, you know, I do. I do agree
with a lot of the things that it does say
that we can get into next week.

Speaker 1 (46:21):
I think that one of the areas we got to
look out for is a small cap. By almost definition,
small caps get the majority of the revenue domestically, and
if the US is kind of like the the uh,
the strongest.

Speaker 3 (46:38):
Is forty percent small caps. So it's all small cap.
Actually it's no, no, it's not. It's ninety percent small cap,
So I think that's a good way to play small caps.

Speaker 1 (46:48):
You know, the schwab Us small cap is another one
that you might want to look at. Uh, you know,
your to date you know of about seventeen or eighteen
percent out performed the S and P five hundred on
a quarterly basis and also on a month date.

Speaker 2 (47:00):
So I think you would take a look at that, you.

Speaker 3 (47:05):
Know, just so it's on air, I'd like to you know,
your shout out to my my, my dog Hugo we
had to put down this week.

Speaker 2 (47:14):
What a great dog he was.

Speaker 3 (47:15):
He was an employee. We got him head shots when
he first started working here. He was with us for
a dozen years, so one of our you know, as
a French bulldog, long employee, a tenured employee that you know,
it's thinks having to put your dog down.

Speaker 2 (47:28):
Yeah, it was, you know, more traumatic than it would
It was way more true. He was a great dog.
He was. He was.

Speaker 3 (47:34):
He loved coming in here, he did, you know, and
Mary got on the Giants jersey that didn't fit his head.
He would just come in here and sleep on our
desks for a while. But it was it was traumatic.
You know, you don't realize how you know I've lost
I've lost loved ones obviously, you know Uncle Chris, you
know grandparents. But there's just something that you know, you

(47:56):
knew so much about your dog.

Speaker 2 (47:58):
That you probably saw Hugo multiple times.

Speaker 3 (48:01):
Family walk every morning, we walk, at night, we go outside,
we hang out, and I'm just having to make that
decision to put him down. And watching him get put
down was sad, you know yesterday and he was there.

Speaker 1 (48:14):
He he lived the good life he had. He was
a character.

Speaker 2 (48:18):
He really was French bull. Yeah, and he he walked.

Speaker 1 (48:21):
He was like scrappy do if you've anyone seen Scooby
Doo man, he owned the place when he walked it dead.

Speaker 3 (48:26):
So you know now that when people listen to this
in a hundred years, you know they'll still remember his name.

Speaker 2 (48:31):
You the Boss. We used to call him the Boss
from you buss.

Speaker 1 (48:34):
All right, give us a call during the week five, seven, nine,
ten forty four, check us out on the webit faganasseid
dot com. Like us on Facebook and uh, I'll miss
yougo you'll miss the moon.

Speaker 2 (48:43):
Well, and next week we'll have Doug on asking us
some questions. Yes, looking forward, it would be great. Take
care