The Fagan Financial Report

August 24th, 2025.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good morning, and welcome to the Capital District's Money and
Investment Program. You're listening to the Fagan Financial Reportum Dennis
Figan sitting here with my son Aaron, as we do
every Sunday for the last thirty six years. Yesterday, August
twenty third, was there, thirty six year in business? It's amazing. Yeah,
and it's sixth in September, and you'll be thirty six
in September. Yeah, you were born and then about a month.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
It's just crazy, really, you know it sometimes time stops
when I started working here, you know, so right, so
when I you know, it was like in the early
twenties when I started working here, So in my.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
Mind you're in your early twenties, not not yeah, but
the twenty twenties, you know what I'm saying.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Yeah, yeah, But also the age of the business was,
you know, twenty yeah, two years of so it kind
of has stopped there for me. So every time you
say thirty six, I'm like, oh my gosh, that's.

Speaker 3 (00:47):
A long ezy time.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
It's crazy how the time goes a decade, that's a century,
a century. Yeah, it's amazing. What they they say, I
don't days go by fast. And the days go by slow,
the years go by fast. Y.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
Lauren has a coffee cup that says that kids, you know,
it's like being with kids.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
You know, I ain't that the truth. I was up
to see your sister this morning about a couple of
days a week at four o'clock in the morning. Yeah,
I'm up there from four to six and then I'll
come into work. It's doing well. He's got the two
twins that are four months old. Yeah, so that's good,
I don't you know. Yeah, you've got the two Jude
and Esme. Yeah, they're good. To see them yesterday. Yeah,
looking good. They're looking good. Yeah healthy. Now is your

(01:26):
time left? Good?

Speaker 3 (01:26):
Good?

Speaker 1 (01:27):
You know it's nice yeah, nice, nice? Nice. Now now
we're back at it. Garden's doing well.

Speaker 3 (01:32):
It is.

Speaker 1 (01:32):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
Nick mahar was here and he him and his girlfriend
Rachel work on the garden at uh. You know that
we have at work. We have a garden at work
that we try to like donate the foods and vegetables.
As I was talking to him, how the you know,
the airline tatoes are splitting. You know, you were saying
that it's uneven watering. Yeah, and he was saying the
same thing, and he read that it's if you don't
use just a drip. It's basically like, you know, you

(01:56):
have to have a time or drip holds on for
it to work. And even if like and it only
can be a drip post because even if you have
a regular hose, it doesn't really hit everything in sync
right every time. So it's kind of annoying because they're
just so unsightly. They are unsightly, but even like the
splits in it, if you can actually see the tomato part,

(02:16):
you know, the wet part, it's just kind of like
you don't, yeah, you don't know what can get in there, right,
happened to a lot of my cherries.

Speaker 3 (02:22):
Mean as what I was going to.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
That's the same thing. But but it's also because they
I think, you know, and and and a gardener may
call into the offices where we're actually taping this at
eight o'clock in the morning on Sunday. But it also
happens when the cherries, in my opinion, you leave them
on the vine too long. And how do you really know,
you know, I do a dozen butternuts squashed. I probably

(02:45):
had ten pumpkins that I had as man and Jude's
name on yep.

Speaker 3 (02:48):
Yeah, so you gotta drop those off.

Speaker 1 (02:50):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
The weather is starting to get really nice too, so it.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
Is, Yeah, it does, I mean, but uh, anyways, TG,
If that's all I have to say, thank god for Friday.
Thank god it was Friday, because the market rallied sharply
on Friday, and and comments that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
made in Jackson Hole. I think a speech started maybe
about ten in the morning on Friday. They released the

(03:14):
contents of that speech earlier in the day, and the
market shot higher and stayed there. There was some rotation
earlier in the week. We'll talk a little bit about that.
We'll kind of parse parse the quotes from Chair Powell.
I take a look at some take a look at
some economic data along the way, talk about the government

(03:36):
taking a stake in Disney. I'm sorry, Intel, I'm sorry, yep,
and then talk about broaden that out from there. You know,
advice Microsoft says AI will replace advisors like US, and
advisors say not so fast. And you know, it's not
just self serving, but I just can't imagine if there's
I can go right online and get a diet easy,

(03:59):
you know.

Speaker 3 (04:00):
Yeah, And I think you.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Know the thing about it that is there so how
many times like and this is this is from both
sides of the of the political aisle. How many times
have we heard, but it's President Trump this time. Okay,
So if you're if you're a fan of President Trump,
you'll say, yeah, it's President Trump this time. That's why
the market's going to do great. And we've become so

(04:23):
polarized that if you're if you're not a I guess
and a proponent of President Trumper's policies, just say, oh
my god, it's different this time. Either way, it's different
this time. And I think when you talk about robo
advising what you have now, I think that it's different
this time. Is always the boogeyman, the monster in the
closet that really gets people off off their financial arm again.

Speaker 2 (04:46):
And you always say that financial arm again, you know,
And I don't you know, just talking about this, I
don't want people to think. I think when you're you know,
when you're in business, especially for yourself, you're always looking
at one of the challenges that you could face. So
I don't want people to think that, hey, you know,
they're listening to this, they're poo pooing it just because
it's in their business. So you really too take you
have to take a step back and try to look
at objectively, like you know, how much do we think

(05:08):
AI will affect our business? And I think more it'll
it'll really help our business for the foreseeable future. And
just getting content out to clients. I'm helping with more
holistic planning, making plans easier for us to to to
do for clients. So you know, I don't And as
you said, you know, I think it's going to be
hard because a lot of our job is behavioral and

(05:32):
working with different types of people. And when the market
gets rough, you know, I think people, yeah, they do
want someone to talk to as opposed to, you know,
just a robo advisor.

Speaker 1 (05:44):
Well, and and I think there's bless you, there's a
I think you hear quite often you know that that
was easy money, you know whatever, after the market's going up.
But I think it was Uncle Chris, And it was
it was Uncle Chris. But I hope I have this right.
What he said. The hard money is really the easy
money is made. It's hard to make the easy money, right,

(06:08):
meaning that when the when the tariffs were you know
all about you know, we have our opinions and this
and that, but you know, you stick to your knitting.
You stick to the proven things in the market. And
and investors may look back now and certainly those that
got out regret it, but those that got in also
there was some As Uncle Chris would say again and

(06:29):
we probably quote him every week, which is nice a
Malex moment, he may reduced to say that there were
even those that that were thought the tariffs would work.
You know, I think and perhaps they will, and those
that think they won't work to say, it's you know
that it hasn't hit the fan yet. But I guess
my point is is that it's hard to make the
easy money because you know, it's it implies the market

(06:53):
is down substantially. Yeah, and I think it's always hard
to pull the trigger to get in at that point
rather to get out. The easy way is out. But anyway,
so so good week on the mark. You want to
why don't you touch on what happened with the market
as far as the numbers go this week here? If
you don't mind, you know, I know, I know you're
off a week, so I don't want to kind of
put your right back. I'm gonna put your right back
in the saddle because you were off this week.

Speaker 2 (07:14):
You know, and you know being off it was Friday
was so nice. Yes, it was nice to come in
on to wake up Friday to a really strong It
actually put me.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
I'm up.

Speaker 2 (07:25):
I went basically even from when I from when I
left until when I came came back. So Dad Jones
Industrial I was up six eighty five to close that
forty five thousand, six thirty one, up one point five
three percent for the week, up seven point twenty six
percent for the year. Sm P five hundred up seventeen
eleven to close at six thousand and four to sixty six,
up point two seven percent for the week, up nine

(07:45):
point ninety five percent for the year. Nasdack down one
twenty six to close at twenty one thousand, four ninety six,
down point five eight percent for the week, up eleven
point three two percent for the year. US total market
up three twenty two oh three to close at thirty
four thousand, nine ninety nine, up a half percent for
the week, up nine point six six percent for the year.

(08:06):
Russell two thousand, up seventy five forty three to close
at two thousand and three sixty one, up three point
three percent for the week, up five point nine one percent.

Speaker 3 (08:12):
For the year.

Speaker 2 (08:14):
Utility is up six thirty to close that one thousand
and one oh nine, up point five seven percent for
the week, up twelve point nine percent for the year now,
Transports up four to thirty nine thirty nine, up six
to close at sixteen one oh two, up two point
eight one percent for the week, up one point three
percent for the year. All indices are within major highs

(08:35):
S and P point zero zero three percent from its
record high, Nasdaq about exactly one percent from its all
time high, Wrestle two thousand, three point three one percent
from all time high, Utility is one point four five
percent from mullti high time high, and transports nine point
three one percent from all time high.

Speaker 1 (08:53):
Now the Dow and Total Market Index both closed at
a record high.

Speaker 3 (08:57):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
Now, so here just let's let's pick up parts some
of the numbers just for for investing's sake, really into
uh kind of kind of give a feel for for
where we think we're going. So during the course of
the week, it was the big rotation, the big rotation
that we were rotating out of the Mag seven and
into other other parts of the market, and that very

(09:21):
well may be happening we in our in our weekly
market update that will appear on a websit this week.
I'm sorry, Yeah, during the course of the week. In fact,
over the past couple weeks, there's been a rotation out
of the MAG seven, you know, into other parts of
the market the vast majority of the week. And I'll
get to the end of the story and work my
way back. On Friday, that was not the case. The

(09:43):
nas that composite up one point eight eight percent, the
Dow up one point eight nine, the S and P
five hundred up one point five two and the Russell
two thousand on Friday was up one point five six percent.
So that rotation out of the Max seven, out of
the NASDA kind of stopped on Friday. And I'll say

(10:03):
in our in my opinion, it was due to the
dubvish tone from a chair Pile, the pivot from Chair
Powell at Jackson Hole. Lower interest rates is more beneficial
for the growth stocks as opposed to higher interest rates,
which favors the other parts of the market. So we'll
see if that continues. For me, it's kind of a

(10:25):
show me type of a thing where all right, we
had some rotation for a while. It'd be nice if
the market broadened out, but the growth is still coming
from the technology stock. So beginning that weekly market update
and again you can you can pull it on our
website Faganasset dot com tomorrow. But we start off with
the rally and the equity market broadened this past week
as a small cap Brussel two thousand rows over three percent,

(10:48):
while the nas that composite fell in fact one and
nineteen out of the one hundred and thirty eight US
total market industry groups rose all this while five of
the so called mag seven fell, Amazon, Apple, met Up,
Microsoft and Nvidia fell two rows, Alphabet and Tesla this moment,
we wouldn't make too much of this rotation, as the

(11:09):
potential for a ray cut when the Fed meets next
in September favors favors this week's laggards. And notably when
the market rally Friday, as a result of ubbish comments
coming from Chapal, the Max seven led the way, what
do you what do you think you know about that?
You know?

Speaker 3 (11:26):
I think that we read it again, sorry.

Speaker 1 (11:29):
Basically saying that you know, yes, what companies fell this week? Well, well, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft,
and Nvidia all fell, and two rows Alphabet and Tesla,
And I think you might call it a magate with Palenteer.
Palenteer was down pretty substantiate. It's probably down, you know,
fifty or sixty, thirty or forty points from its all
time high.

Speaker 2 (11:48):
You know when you did see the RSP this past
week up one point ninety five percent in the S
and P up point.

Speaker 3 (11:54):
I just have my fifth day.

Speaker 1 (11:56):
It looks like this past week. Yeah, S and P
five was up. So that is because it's nasdak get's
heavyweight to get.

Speaker 2 (12:05):
So it's I mean, I think it's a good thing
for the overall market. It has to be, you know,
I do think that you have to I think you
always have to be trimming the things that have done
really well, you know, so, you know, even if this
is a little bit of a rotation, I think that
if you do have you know, let's say the traditional
mag seven companies, you just have to make sure that
you know, you don't have so much that if there

(12:26):
is this switch to you know, more of a you know,
broadening out of the market, that you do participate you
know that said you hear about broadening out of the
market every once a year, you know, for that once
every six months, the mark's gonna broad out.

Speaker 3 (12:39):
The market's going to broaden out, and it does.

Speaker 2 (12:41):
But it's much easier for the you know, uh, the
RSP to get overvalued, in my opinion, than the MAG
seven and the SMP because all those you know, although
you can say, all right, you know the this S
and P S train at twenty two twenty three times earnings,
you know, having forty percent technology, they have way better margins,
way better growth. So I think that you know, they
have that you know, higher pe ratio for a reason,

(13:04):
as opposed to the RSP when you have like the
caterpillars and the home depots of the world, and when
those get overvalued, they get overvalued because their revenue growth
just is never going to be up where technology is.

Speaker 1 (13:14):
Well, the price earning is over growth rate of the
MAG seven. It's pretty pretty reasonable, you know. So but
but your but you're right, you know, you hear the rotation, rotation,
let's rotate, and you know it's not much different from
the radio show, right every every Sunday, you know, and look,
you know, and Jason's Wig said it. He's been writing

(13:35):
an article for I think it was Jason's Wig for
forty years. I've been on the We've been on the
radio for thirty some years every Sunday, you know, yeah, yeah,
the the names may change, but the news kind of
stays the same and is much that you're finding different
ways to say the same thing over and over again.
And we've got you got to create, you know, on

(13:57):
the radio for fifty minutes, because you know we could
we come on after the news and leave a little
time for the news. You know, you create fifteen minutes
of content, when when you're on CNBC or Bloomberg, you're creating,
you know, twenty four hours of comment of content seven
days a week. So when there was a bit of
a rotation, Okay, how much time are we going to

(14:19):
give to and this is let's say, the producers of CNBC,
how much time are we going to give to this story? Well,
we don't got a lot of other stuff going on,
you better give we better give enough time to this story.

Speaker 2 (14:30):
Even in the filled time, even with Powell's speech this week,
you know, I was away on Friday, and you know,
we had a little bit of a time difference. So
I found the markets in the morning, and you know,
the markets start to really really bounce, and I'm trying
to look for information that warranted the bounce, and there
really wasn't much. No then Powell being a little bit
more davish than than we thought, and I was a

(14:52):
little bit surprised that that was the only news that
came out.

Speaker 1 (14:56):
Well, it's a pivot, though. It was a pretty big
pivot from him, you know, and I think you know
when and it's not unlike the pivot on April ninth
from President Trump. The morning of April ninth, before the
market opened, you know, when he delayed the tariffs. You know,
there was there was hawkish comments, hawkish tariff comments, numerous
coming from President Trump, and then all of a sudden

(15:17):
on April ninth, and the market was down twenty percent,
remember and you know probably you know, a month's worth
of twenty twenty days worth of trading. And then President
Trump came out and said, well, no, no, We're going
to delay the tariffs to kind of negotiate. And that's
not what the market expected. And the market, you know,
you know, pushed its way higher and is moving higher
ever since. And it's probably have twenty five or thirty

(15:38):
percent from its lows. And there's that can positive is up,
you know, thirty percent off those April ninth lows. In fact,
they probably should start keeping them, putting it on our website.
But yeah, you know, because a lot of good news
is built into the market, we certainly don't see that
as a result of you know, uh, char Powell's comments.
But he pivoted as well, you know, you know, with

(16:00):
with with, you know, within his speech. And I think
it's you know, I don't know how long it took,
but it's about twenty pages long. I printed off the
pdf with policy in restrictive Territory bing you know, the baseline.
He didn't say bang, I said, bing the baseline outlook
and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our
policy stance. That policy stance has been on hold. So

(16:21):
you know, that's the market like that? What else did
he say there? While the labor market appears to be
in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that
results from a market slowing in both the supply of
and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggested downside risk
to employment arising again. You know, which would imply a

(16:42):
dubblish monetary policy, and if those risks materialize, they can
do so quickly. And finally, it is also possible, ever
that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur
a more lasting inflation dynamic. There's the kind of checks
and balances, and this is a risk to be assessed
and managed. So yeah, you know, I think he you know,

(17:02):
he uh, you know, it's a it's a it's a
bit of a pivot, and you know, I don't know
what whatever the market warrants you. Well, you were saying
too when you were away, you know, you would look
at our accounts daily and then you know, we have
we have a portfolio that we use for just our
stock accounts, and you know, just so we can keep
them separate, you know, because they're they're there. We we

(17:25):
move on them in a more quicker fashion than we
do with ETFs or mutual funds. And you were saying,
you know, we started out, you know a little bit
of correction territory, we come back, we're up a little bit,
but not the market didn't move a lot while you
were going, maybe a quarter of a verse or whatever, you know,
So but anyway, So we'll see, we'll see where chair

(17:48):
chair Chair Powell goes from there. But they're there. Their mandate, really,
the Fed's mandate maximum employment, price stability, and anchor, and
they have to anchor inflation expectations because if inflation expectations
get out of hand, then, uh, you know, that leads
to you know, inflation, you know, inflation, you know, just well,

(18:10):
and right now we're not concerned about deflationary the expectations
getting out of hand. There was a concern at one
point in time inflationary expectations would get out of hand.
So so so you have these comments from chair Pile.
The market down most of the week, as as you mentioned,
we did recover all of those losses to generate gains

(18:32):
in six of the seven indices we track the NAS
that composit's still down for the week, although again it
outperformed substantially on Friday, and so I would not make
too much of a rotation. He did say, though, where
you know, the broadening of the of the of the
market is good and obviously the more companies that participate,
the better up. But you also said that the growth rate,

(18:55):
the revenue and erning's growth rate of these large technology
stocks and you say it every week, you know, warrants, warrants,
these levels.

Speaker 2 (19:06):
Yeah, I think while I was going sam Outman, the
Open CEO said something about, you know, worrying about you know,
an AI bubble, and it's like, I mean the guy,
I don't know. I just think that we kind of misconstrued,
you know, what he was saying. I think that I
think that he also owns a private company. Right, So

(19:30):
you know, I do think that, you know, we could
see an AI bubble. But you know, I think, as
you always see, you could see these things go on
much longer.

Speaker 3 (19:36):
Than uh go on, you know, much longer than they
are already have.

Speaker 2 (19:44):
And also, you know, I do think while we can
these big large companies continue to spend, I do think
that you know, you'll see some you know, you'll you'll
see a floor in in in the AI companies in
the Magnificent seven attitude.

Speaker 1 (19:57):
You know, I often say too, I remember back in
nineteen ninety six, ninety seven, ninety eight, ninety nine, there
was always bubble talk, right, you know, And I use
a silly analogy, but you know, blow a piece of
gamma into a bubble, it's always a bubble. Yeah, right,
you know, at some point in time, you know, it's

(20:18):
it's too stretched for the for the physics of a
gam and this is the same way, you know, is
it about it'll this will end up ugly at some
point in time at from some level, right yeah, yeah,
but that that level if you just use you know, uh,
you know, one of our largest holdings but also been
pretty much widely held holding Apple Apple strading at two

(20:39):
twenty eight. At some point in time, this is gonna
end ugly. But is that Apple going from four hundred
to three hundred? Is it going from two twenty eight
to one twenty eight? And that's the real Uh yeah,
I agree, And personally I don't think it's going from
two twenty eight to one twenty. I think I think
this has much room to go before this bubble burns.

Speaker 2 (20:58):
You'd have little pritt chart talk while I was going
kind of detailing that, right, and.

Speaker 1 (21:03):
I didn't think you paid it.

Speaker 2 (21:04):
No, it was a great actually was great because you know,
even with the rebound on Friday, but you said this
is a paw and I forget exactly what it was,
but basically just to refresh, yeah, pausitoryfresh, And I think
that's you know, I think you need that in the
market once in a while for a healthy market, for
you know, a healthy bull market.

Speaker 1 (21:20):
You know, in this week's char talk, I already have
an idea the bullish sentiment, right, if you know, there's
an old adage if you look at or are we
in a bubble? There's the old adages the market climbs
a wall of worry. And so the investors American Association
of Individual Investors have a survey and when that bullish

(21:43):
sentiment gets above sixty percent, So when sixty percent of
investors are bullish, it's a contrarian indicator. So that that
really pretends a predicts a pullback in the market. Well,
since April, it's never been over fifty percent. So you
have you have a ton of cash on the sidelines,
and you also have this wall of worry that the
market is still climbing rather than rather than you know,

(22:09):
all this bullish sentiment that's out there. So I don't
think investors are overly optimistic at this point in time.
We got about a couple of minutes to go, so
I did want to touch on a couple other pieces
of economic information that came out. Sales of his sixty
homes up two percent. We had that. We also had

(22:30):
comments from Lawrence Youwn the chief Economists, I believe he
is Chief Economists that the National Associate Realtors said near
zero growth and home prices suggest that roughly half the
country's experiencing price reductions, which probably positive. Overall, homeowners are
doing well financially only two percent of sales or foreclosures
or short sales, essentially a historic low. The market's health

(22:53):
is supported by accumulative forty nine percent home price appreciation
for typical American homeowner from pre COVID July nineteen to
July this year, and home buyers in the best position
more than five years to to rind the right find
the right home, and negotiate for a better price.

Speaker 2 (23:09):
And you did have home builders rally about five percent
this past week.

Speaker 1 (23:13):
Yeah, you know, we've been looking at KBH, Kaufman and
Broad and I know that was up three or four
points on Friday. We haven't pulled the trigger on them.

Speaker 3 (23:22):
I think they could still have a ways to run.

Speaker 1 (23:24):
Now I do too, and I think we got to
take a closer look at that over the next couple
of days. And then what else, what else Well, initial
clamps from employment finished benefits jumped and that's that's you know,
a negative jumped from eleventh jumped eleven thousand to two
hundred and thirty five thousand, two and fifty thousands.

Speaker 3 (23:41):
Usually it could sign another rate, you know, more reason
for a rate cut.

Speaker 1 (23:45):
Yes, anyways, that'll just about do it for the first half.
It's ten thirty on the station depend upon for news,
weather and information, News Talk A ten and one O
three one w G. Y, Good morning, and welcome back
on the second half of the Capitol District's Money and
invest it's been programming. You're listening to the Fagan financial Report.
I'm Dennis Fagan, sitting here with my son Aaron, as
we do every Sunday right here in News Talk A

(24:06):
ten one O three one w G. Why. We had
some good input from clients and and listeners from last
week's show. We did a tape and Doug Keenholtz are
you know someone who joined us about a year ago
and works on our side of the business, on the
advising side, joined us for I think the second time
ever and uh, you know, kind of interviewed us from

(24:28):
a from a business and a personal perspective, and he
did a good job and we got some calls, and
I know Doug had to take a couple of days off.
This week he took his his uh, his oldest to
college at the University of Michigan.

Speaker 2 (24:40):
It's it's it's been. Doug calls himself my life coach
as a joke. But it's funny watching, you know, now
that I have kids, watching him go through these things.
How you know how different I think now than when
I was going through them, because I don't I feel
like I'm not that far away from, you know, being college,

(25:00):
although I am. I still remember very very vividly, you know,
what was kind of going through my head, And now
that I have kids, I frankly I kind of feel
bad for you know, you're you're you're very focused on
yourself when you're going through those things. And I'm seeing
Doug go through the uh you know, the emotions of
of of it, and it's a.

Speaker 1 (25:20):
Well put it, eye opening with a child. Now you
want me to open your eyes. You're closer to Jude
going to college than when you got out of college.

Speaker 3 (25:28):
Yeah, you're just about just about good?

Speaker 1 (25:31):
Yeah, Oh my gosh, yes, exactly. Well, think about that.

Speaker 3 (25:34):
For the rest of Yeah, yeah, thank you. I'm gonna
go home and tell Lauren.

Speaker 2 (25:37):
Now, Laura, it's gonna be made because Jude's going to
school for the first time.

Speaker 3 (25:40):
Really, you know, he did like two hours twice a week.

Speaker 2 (25:45):
Last year, you know, but it was right, you know,
it's nine to eleven Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Speaker 3 (25:48):
Now he's going for four.

Speaker 2 (25:49):
And a half hours three times a week, right, And
Lauren is beside herself, and I feel bad for for me.
It's not much different because I work, but you know,
you wouldn't be home, you know, another twelve twelve thirteen
hours of the week that she's she's been with Jude
since he's been born. You know, she took work off

(26:10):
when Jude was born, and she's really going to miss him.

Speaker 3 (26:13):
And I feel bad for her.

Speaker 1 (26:14):
You know, I forget the numbers, but you spend more
time with your kids for the first five years than
you do almost the rest of your life, you know.

Speaker 2 (26:20):
And I was I think, how fortunate I am really
to work with you.

Speaker 3 (26:24):
But yeah, we are so close.

Speaker 2 (26:26):
You know, Sam's here, Mary's here, so you know, it's
it's it's been really like a blessing to be able
to spend so much time with my family.

Speaker 3 (26:35):
The older I.

Speaker 2 (26:35):
Am, you know, because it's more you realize, yeah, you know,
and it's you really find it. You know how important
it is and how much I enjoy it.

Speaker 3 (26:42):
Really Yeah, me too.

Speaker 1 (26:44):
I missed you when you were going. Uh So, a
couple of things. One is it one one more? One
more outside the uh I guess the per view of
our show Giants the over unders, I think, is it
six games or six.

Speaker 3 (26:57):
And five and a half to start?

Speaker 1 (27:00):
You know, dart or to start, you know, dart to start.

Speaker 3 (27:04):
So I have to find the most recent one.

Speaker 2 (27:07):
But you know it did start off at five and
a half, so you know it can go up and
down based on.

Speaker 3 (27:15):
We cannot what people, what people are.

Speaker 1 (27:17):
This year cannot be a bust. And I don't know
if you could measure this year in wins and losses.
I think you've got to measure this year somewhat in
wins and loss We had four wins last year. We've
got you know, I don't know, I would be very
disappointed in any less. I don't know, you know, I
just said you can't measure this year and wins and losses.
I think you know, I think, you know, I'd like

(27:39):
to see Jackson darts start at some point in time,
but not more on a downward spiral. And I'd like
to see the year end on an up note, a real,
real up note, not just win the last game, right,
you know, how do you feel about this the year
and everything?

Speaker 2 (27:53):
You know, I'm pretty big supportive of a good defense
gets your you know, six seven, eight wins, and I
think we got a good defense. One of the best
are d lines in the NFL, I think right now.
So I'm more optimistic. It's just you know, our if
you know, I'm just looking at you know, we're We're
getting six in the first game of the seasons against

(28:13):
the Commanders, and it's gonna be tough with the division
that we're into.

Speaker 1 (28:17):
Yeah, the Commanders, you know, I we'll see maybe they're overrated. Yeah,
who's who's their quarterback, Jaden Daniel? Yeah, you know, maybe
he was a rookie. We'll see what happens, you know.
And there's so many injuries during the course of the year,
both to the Giants and other teams, and a lot
of teams come and go, and there's there's moves from
about six or seven teams up and six or seven
teams down.

Speaker 2 (28:38):
But you know, our coaching staff and our players, I
think know that they need to win, they need to
start the season well.

Speaker 1 (28:44):
So but yeah, and there's a level of optimism. And
I will also say, and I don't usually say this,
but I think football you need to be the level
of effort you have to give I think exceeds some
other sports because you're battling somebody else. Somebody else is

(29:05):
on the other side of you all the time, you
know what I mean. So I think lots of times
that effort, the amount of effort you give dictate success
because in the NFL they are one score games most
of the time, so you know.

Speaker 2 (29:16):
So it would be two weeks out from the opening
week and the Commanders next week, that kind of stuff,
I don't think.

Speaker 1 (29:22):
So I think it's I think it's a Thursday after
Labor Day, isn't it. So it's a week from Thursday Thursday.
I'm excited though, Yeah, me too. So the second thing
I had a question is, like, you know, I'm looking
at into it into it was down thirty five points
on Friday, five percent. We don't own any of it.
What makes you feel better? Buying an investment that goes
up or having avoided one that we considered that went down.

Speaker 2 (29:47):
Yeah, first of all, you probably want to consider that
goes down. I know we talked about you know, it's
so funny last Weekday said, what's your least favorite stock?

Speaker 3 (29:54):
Dog?

Speaker 2 (29:54):
Guess I'm like Intel. I hate Intel. I hate having
to value Intel. And since then Intel is really, you know,
gone up precipitously with you know, the administration taking a
ten percent. But you know, it feels so good to
avoid something that that coast town. Yes, especially with earnings,
because it can be tough. You know, if you're investing,

(30:14):
you always have to figure out when earnings are because
what you don't want to do is I buy a
stock and then three days later, you know they have
poor earnings, like into it did.

Speaker 1 (30:23):
Well. How do you feel about the government taking a
stake in intell them, whether it's unnecessary?

Speaker 2 (30:28):
You know, I just I don't believe in the government
really taking stakes and businesses if they don't have to.

Speaker 3 (30:34):
You know, what about you.

Speaker 1 (30:36):
Well, I think you know, you look at them taking
a steak in GM and Ford or GM really back
in you know, the early two thousands coming out of
the Great Recession, a lot of the banks, they did
let some of the brokerage firms Lehman Brothers, Bearsterns go under,
so I you know, you might so what does so
they picked their winners. I think that's that I don't

(30:57):
and I don't and it doesn't. I mean, think about
when the United States back in the fifties, I mean,
their cars were were clunkers, really compared to when we
let the let the imported cars come in.

Speaker 2 (31:08):
Yeah, Brazil, you know, And I think that I think
it's kind of an American in that aspect of Intel
has failed.

Speaker 3 (31:17):
In Intel has failed capitalism.

Speaker 2 (31:19):
You let things fail that have a crappy product, and
that's what Intel does. You know, They've They've had a
lot of competition in recent years from AMD, from in video,
from all these companies, and they didn't innovate and they failed.
So I don't really believe in taking over failed companies
just because they failed.

Speaker 3 (31:35):
And I think I think the.

Speaker 2 (31:36):
Administration is using inter national security. You know, we need
our own companies to do well. But I just don't
agree with you know, I think it's anti capitalist.

Speaker 1 (31:47):
I do too, I mean major from the government's perspective.
You know, they're the only company that can really produce
chips in the United States, only domestic company. Uh what
if China invades Taiwan. Taiwan Semis is the chip company. Uh,
then we're we're in big, deep trouble. It's the same
with rare Earth, you know. You know, however, uh, Intel

(32:08):
does have an inferior chip to Taiwan Semi. And do
we really want to fuel ai and in the next
decade or two of this explosive industry with inferior chips? Yeah,
you know, And and I think we we could, We
could actually set back the development of artificial intelligence and

(32:32):
become a second class citizen relative to China.

Speaker 2 (32:36):
You know, so because if you look at some of
the things that are going on in China from a
from an artificial intelligence standpoint, from a computer programming standpoint,
from a robotics standpoint, you know, they are making strides,
you know, and I think, I think we want to
continue to be a country of innovators, and this is
something that could hinder innovation as a whole.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
I heard talk on the on the on the on
the television this week of well you didn't come plain
and when the Biden administration backed all solar and stuff
like that, and I think the difference, in my opinion,
and they got Biden administration did back Cylindra, and you
know it probably didn't talk about that, but that was
minor compared to intel. I think that the difference, in

(33:15):
my opinion is the government, you know, and Treasury and
the Fed dictates monetary policy. The administration and Congress, by
the way, not just the administration. So I think the
Trump and Trump did not have President Trump did not
have doesn't shouldn't have the right to do this without
congressional approval dictate kind of fiscal policy. So I don't

(33:39):
have a problem with incentives, just like we do with
with you know, purchasing a home. The first five hundred
thousand dollars of capital gain is is is tax exempt
for joint filers. Capital gains tax rates are lower than
dividend tax rates. You can do whatever you want as
far as that goes. If you want to incentivize a
domestic production, I'm for that. So incentivize the incentivize domestic

(34:00):
production and innovation and innovation.

Speaker 3 (34:03):
Don't give a hand that new energies with energy.

Speaker 2 (34:05):
I think those are all forms of innovation, you know,
I think propping up uh, you know, a failing chip
company is not is not promoting innovation, right, agree to
agree one hundred, you know, And I think it's you know,
you call it a slipper.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
I do think it is a.

Speaker 3 (34:23):
Slip, like what's the next company? You know?

Speaker 2 (34:25):
And I think also you could also you could, hey,
look back to two thousand and what happen in two
thousand and I think what happened in two thousand and
eight was some of the government's fault with the massive deregulation.
So I don't think it's fair to compare, you know,
helping prop up the banks, which could have led to
a systemic failure of that's the difference economies in stock
market as opposed to Intel, which is really really just

(34:46):
a failing company right now.

Speaker 1 (34:47):
I agree, you know, you know it does it hurts
you as tech leadership, going to hurt the economy down
the intermediate and longer term. And and and we'll see
what happens.

Speaker 2 (34:58):
When he was just calling for this guy's firing, wasn't yes, yeah, whatever,
Now I don't know, Well, that's that's also something that
you know what I mean, It's kind of like Tim Cook,
Tim Cook goes to Washington, gives a gift to the president,
and you have, you know, loosening your restrictions as far.

Speaker 1 (35:13):
As Apple goes. Weren't Buffett bought some United Health. We
do own some United Health, so we happened to see that.
But the article that I'm reading by a couple of
weeks ago and Intel and United Health has rebounded substantially
over those two.

Speaker 3 (35:26):
Weeks, even when the report came out that he bought it.

Speaker 1 (35:30):
Yeah, but what the the purpose of the comment is
is it purchased total purchases a less than two billion,
and yet it sold four billion in Apple shares alone.
So Buffett, although he did purchase something, what he what
he sold and not not to specific company that he sold,

(35:51):
but the amount of that he purchased two billion versus
just four billion in Apple says more about Buffet. Buffet's
view on the market. Yeah, yeah, you know what I mean,
American stock market even Yeah, So I think he's a
little I think everybody's a little yeah, and maybe that's
why the market's going up. The market climbs of Walla worry.

(36:11):
But you know it's just Buffett is I think he's
a little conservative right now? And you know, I'm speculating,
but we'll see Amazon launches same same day fresh grocery
delivery in a thousand US cities.

Speaker 3 (36:25):
I don't have that much. I know what fresh Market
has already? Is it fresh Market? They own our whole.

Speaker 1 (36:31):
Food of the fresh marketshfold.

Speaker 2 (36:33):
Already doing whole food deliver. You can do delivery through Amazon.
So I'm wondering what this is.

Speaker 3 (36:38):
Love. I like grocery delivery. It's expensive, but I don't
have much to say based based off that.

Speaker 1 (36:44):
Well, I think, well, you know what, a little bit,
but I don't think it's gonna really gonna hurt Walmart
that much. Walmart does ton of grocery business. I think
half of the fresh produce maybe in the United States
is from Walmart and have to grocery something like that.
I know the numbers, and we don't own a lot
of Walmart. But I think, you know, and this is
kind of a coming on the heels of uh, poor
earnings from Target. I mean, Target is somewhat in disarrangt.

Speaker 2 (37:05):
Yeah, you know, I think one of the better things
that happened to him while I was away, and that's
that's not true.

Speaker 3 (37:11):
What is it?

Speaker 2 (37:11):
Brian Cornell was fired, but I mean the company, different
part of the company. I can't tell you how many
conversations I've had with you over the past two or
three years where he gets on CNBC and you just
listen to him. You're like, this guy doesn't get it,
you know, And I think it's it's it's smart for
Target to move on. I really don't think he understood
their brand at all, So, you know, I think, but

(37:33):
I also think Target's going to continue to struggle. I
don't think that my generation has the brand loyalty that
past generations.

Speaker 1 (37:40):
You say that about a lot of different mostly about banks.

Speaker 3 (37:43):
Banks, but I think the same thing with Target.

Speaker 2 (37:45):
You know, you can find so many things online so
easily now, and there's so many different ways to buy things,
and I, yeah, I don't think you really have that
brand loyalty. So I think Target will can will continue
to struggle to find their footing.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
Really well, they came out of the COVID. They were
one of the fewer companies that could really operate during COVID,
and they did a great job coming out of COVID
and have stumbled mightily since. If you look at I had.

Speaker 2 (38:12):
A huge backlog, they over ordered which works out good
at the beginning of COVID, but very poorly as they
continued to do it well.

Speaker 1 (38:21):
They seem to have staffing shortages, they have staff in
the wrong areas.

Speaker 2 (38:25):
They don't have supply chain issues, they don't have happy employees,
and totally right. Yeah, it's three year return is negative
thirty two percent.

Speaker 1 (38:36):
And what's Walmart's three year return? And then Amazon?

Speaker 2 (38:40):
Yeah, Walmart's is one hundred and twenty five percent, and
I mean Amazon, it's three years from you know, from
seventy to one percent.

Speaker 1 (38:49):
So so Target, you know, I think Targets have shown me.
I think, you know, there's lots of other better reasons.
I don't get in the retail so much, and we
have Amazon.

Speaker 2 (38:57):
I don't know when I when I think about these things,
you know, I try to, you know, think about things
that we bought in the past and it has worked
out or hasn't worked out. But we bought Boeing in
the past, and it was probably a little bit too early,
you know, during Boeing's turnaround, but it's turned out to
be a really good investment for us.

Speaker 3 (39:13):
It's up thirty percent this year.

Speaker 2 (39:15):
And I think some companies like a Boeing that has
basically a duopoly. You give you you get into a
good company that's a little bit gone off the uh clod,
gone off the road a little bit, it's lost its
direction a little bit, and you can hold on to
that for one, two three years. I think with the
retail company like Target, you where you're continually having not

(39:37):
only them not finding their way, but having their their
peers innovating that. You know, it's a really tough company
to be like, you know what, it's a good company.

Speaker 3 (39:45):
It's it's relatively cheap.

Speaker 2 (39:47):
I'm gonna sit on it because they could continue to
continue trying to struggle.

Speaker 3 (39:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (39:51):
Well, and I think the the Wall Street was somewhat
disappointed that their currents COO, Michael Fidelki was named CEO
and he's been there for a while, so he's been
there through a lot of these, you know issues that
Targets had. So I think the uh, you know, the

(40:15):
what we call was not that thrilled with that either.
Wall Street investors were not that thrilled with that, So
we had that issue as well. You know, all that said.

Speaker 2 (40:24):
Four point five nine percent dividend, you'll going forward, right,
it's starting to make it.

Speaker 3 (40:28):
You know, you could say it starts to make.

Speaker 2 (40:30):
It look attractive, but yeah, it could just be like
you know, with the pe ratio of eleven point five,
it could be dead money for for for a good bit.

Speaker 1 (40:37):
And you know, retail is tough, man. You get you
get off the cutting when you start. When you when
your competition is Walmart, Costco and Amazon, you you have
tough sledding. You can't afford to get that far behind,
like running with you know, Usain both and Ben Jonson.
You know what I'm saying. These people aren't standing still.
They're looking to now eliminate a competitor, right.

Speaker 3 (40:58):
Yeah, and I think that's what I think, that's what
you get.

Speaker 2 (41:01):
And you know I don't want to bring it well
I will, but I'll bring it back to the Amazon
conversation you had with grocery delivery. And I think that's
what sometimes people forget is you know, we look at Amazon,
we look at Google, we look at Microsoft, we look
at all these companies like, oh, you know, they're going
to struggle.

Speaker 3 (41:15):
They're going to struggle. These companies are.

Speaker 2 (41:17):
Paying some of the best engineers in the world to innovate,
and they're innovating in different ways, finding new ways to
create revenue. And I think that's kind of what I
got from Amazon. It's like, oh, I don't really think
much of that other than the fact that these these
companies have their hand in everything, and you know, maybe
they're going through a little bit of a dry spell
like kind of googled it the first half of the
year with chat GPT or kind of Apple has been

(41:38):
going through a little bit, But you know, they are there.
They're not They're not just sitting here doing nothing. They're
working on new ways to innovate, as you saw with
Google Cloud recently, with their new deal with Amazon, with
their grocery delivery with Microsoft with you know, Azor and
Microsoft Services. So I think that, you know, you'll always
talk about overvalued, undervalued with these companies, but they're still

(42:01):
moving in you know, the right trajectory.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
Yeah, it certainly isn't a static environment, you know. So, yeah,
I think that's one of the things that I would
say to that. The other so let's let's breaden the
whole topic of conversation out a little bit too, the
stock market in general and an update, And it's it's
not you know, it's it's a question we get all

(42:25):
the time, and that's why I want to talk about it,
although we talk about it quite often. An article by
Elizabeth O'Brien on August fourteenth, what's a safe savings withdraw rate?
It may be more than you think. And I think
Bill Bengan, who people in the industry are familiar with,
did a study probably twenty five or more than that,
probably forty years ago, talking about you know, four percent

(42:48):
being a safe WITHDROW eight. He did a lot of
study using money Carli money Carlo simulation in the lake.
He raises benchmark to four point seven percent, and he
says those retiring today could go around five and a
quarter percent, and some of that's due to the fact
that the ten year treasury is sitting around four and

(43:09):
a quarter. So you know, if you have you know,
sixty percent of your money in the stock mark and
forty percent in bonds, then you're, you know, you're get
your You're you're guaranteeing yourself a four and a quarter
percent return over ten years. You know. I look back
at our at our portfolios, and having been in business
and kept kept performance figures since nineteen eighty nine, since

(43:31):
August twenty third of nineteen eighty nine. I think five
percents reasonable.

Speaker 2 (43:37):
Yeah, I do too, you know, And I think it's reasonable.
It's you know, it's it's on a situation by situation.
So I was just thinking about this, like, there's very
few clients that come in here and we create a
financial plan for in the and they're like four percent,
take four percent out. It's usually like, all right, I'm
going on a trip, can I take this much out?

(43:59):
And then you kind of go back and forth with
how much they've taken out now, how much they've taken
out of pasta you know, you don't. We rarely come
I rarely come across, and there's a few that do
come to mind that are like how much can I
safely withdraw?

Speaker 3 (44:09):
And That's what I'm going to take out?

Speaker 2 (44:11):
Right, you know, But I do think, you know, I
do think five percent is safe, especially if you're someone
retiring your sixties. You know, you start taking five percent out,
then you're seventy five, then you're eighty. And we talk
about that all the time. Like Poppy was kind of
coming in here reading some paper, watching the US Open,
watching the Mets, talk about the Mets, and his cost
of living did go down dramatically in his.

Speaker 3 (44:31):
Later stages of life.

Speaker 2 (44:32):
So you know, yeah, I think if you cap yours
at five percent five and a quarter whatever that is,
you know, in your mid sixties, Yeah, I think I
think that's more than I think that's not more than save.

Speaker 3 (44:42):
I think that's safe.

Speaker 2 (44:43):
Well.

Speaker 1 (44:43):
And the other thing too, is like what are you
trying to accomplish?

Speaker 3 (44:47):
All right?

Speaker 1 (44:47):
And there's very few people that come in here like
or what are you trying to prevent? Like I don't
probably going off and I will go off on a
tangent here, but what I'm trying to accomplish like myself,
all right, what I would say about myself? What if
I retire today? I'm trying to make certain that Mom
and I have the standard of living that we've worked

(45:07):
for the last forty five years to get to. And also,
you know, I don't want to leave every dime that
we have to you and Sam. I'd like to leave
something to you and Sam. But so what I'm trying
to prevent is disaster for Mom and I first, and
then leave what we can to you and Sam, you
know what I'm saying, and maintain the standard living I

(45:28):
think most of our customers come in and this number
may seem high, but it's not that high, you know,
for people who are retiring today. If you're a you know,
an employee of a municipality or the state, and you
have a defined benefit pension plan, you've actually counted on
that and probably saved less over the course of the
years than if you both you and your spouse or
partner work in a private sector. You might have a

(45:50):
million dollars. So if I said to you, you can
take five percent out, and let's say it's you have
a bad sequence of timing and you and you end
up with you die with you and your spouse. And
let's say you don't have a long term nursing stay.
You set up a trust, or you have long term care,
whatever the case may be, so your money's not wiped
out by long term long term care costs and you

(46:11):
so you started with a million bucks and you die
with six hundred thousand. Because the market really hasn't been
cooperative with your with your time frame. You know, when
you when you, when you when you retire, and your
bad sequence of returns. You know, if that's palatable for you,
then five percent certainly doable, right, Yeah, absolutely, you know,
because what you said, also, hey, when you get to
be you know, and think about me when I'm seventy four,

(46:34):
when I'm eighty, you're going to be fifty five. You're
my child, but you're not a child, you know, you
know what I mean. You and Sam are my kids,
but you're not children. So I think what happens then
is that, you know, maybe you get a little bit
of input from your kids, maybe when you go out
to dinner or go on vacations. You don't pay solely
all that types of thing, you know. But you know

(46:56):
what I'm saying.

Speaker 3 (46:57):
So I'll just start walking out of the there you go.

Speaker 1 (47:02):
I love going to the house with your fan.

Speaker 3 (47:04):
Yeah, we gotta get down there.

Speaker 1 (47:05):
We do got to get down there. So I think
five percent is really reasonable. Yeah, me too, you know,
And I think that's that's that's the number. Now they
talk about five in the corner. You can use an
inflation rateed two and a half. Inflation definitely goes down.
And retirement, you know, yeah, after the first few years
of retirement as well.

Speaker 2 (47:22):
For ninety five percent of the people, you do have
those one offs where you know, yeah, that long term
care really can you know, kind of screw you but yeah,
for the more majority of people, Yeah, I think that's safe.

Speaker 1 (47:32):
Long term care generally speak, and I call it a
second half of your sixties issue. Put it to bed
one way or the other. You know. Granted a lot
of you.

Speaker 3 (47:40):
Have I never heard you say that. Yeah, yeah, that's good.

Speaker 2 (47:43):
You're right, you know, you're you're second half of your sixties.
Either you know, get some money in a trust or
you get long term care.

Speaker 3 (47:49):
Yeah, that's really yeah.

Speaker 1 (47:50):
You know. Now, now the situation individual situations dictated, like
Uncle Chris got sick in his early sixties, so they
would do things differently. But for the vast majority of
people who lived seventy five or eighty, you know, you
do something with a trust account long term care. The
earlier the better, if that's the option that you're going,
But you want to explore other options as well, because

(48:11):
if your goal is to leave some money to your
children but not every dime, there are a ton of
other options through gifting, through trust and the likes. So
so we'll go from there. But anyways, welcome back, re.
It's great to have you back back in the office.
And we have not a short week this week, but
Labor Day's coming up. And if you want to get
a hold of us during the week five one, eight, two,
seven ninety four, check us out on the webit, faganasset

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dot com or like us on Facebook. Have a great deal. Thanks,
good to see you.