The Fagan Financial Report

November 16th, 2025. 

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to our podcast radio show. Please note that the
content presented is for educational purposes only. We encourage you
to consult with a financial advisor or conduct your own
due diligence before making any investment decisions. All information provided
is believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for
accuracy or completeness. This presentation does not constitute investment, legal,
or tax advice, nor an offer to buy or sell

(00:22):
any security or insurance product. It also does not endorse
any third party or their views. All examples are hypothetical
and for illustrative purposes only.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Good morning, and welcome to the Capital District's Money and
Investment program. You're listening to the Fagan Financial Report. I'm
Dennis Fagan, sitting here with my son Aaron, as we
do every Sunday right here in News Talk eight ten
and one oh three to one WGY. Coffee in the
wintertime or coffee in this summertime? Is there a difference
to you coffee in the winter time without a doubt.

Speaker 3 (00:49):
Yeah, this is the best place to be in the winter,
you know, drinking a coffee.

Speaker 4 (00:55):
It's snowing.

Speaker 3 (00:56):
You don't have to go anywhere for an eight hours
it's when day is Wednesday, Wednesday, Wednesday morning.

Speaker 2 (01:02):
Ye got a lot to talk about before we get
to talking about that, We're going to talk about Vanguard's
principles for investing success. Good time is November twelfth, year
end planning with UH with your Advisor. I'm going to
talk about in video some something about our largest holdings,
some changes that we've made, and also but I do

(01:22):
got a couple of things that I didn't want to
talk about. So we're running the Turkey trot run.

Speaker 4 (01:27):
We're running the trot. This is our what we've you've done.
We've done it in and.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Out for years and years, but this is our fourth
straight year together. You got me back plug plotting along
and that's what you getting it done at the end,
exactly step guy. When we're going down afterwards at Oryon's wake,
Here's here's my here's my thing though that it's kind
of as as I get working out towards the turkey

(01:54):
trot discipline, you know what I mean, get out there
two or three times a week, you know, exercise, stretching
the morning a little bit. Halloween cany is going to
be the death of me.

Speaker 3 (02:07):
I know.

Speaker 2 (02:07):
Do you have Halloween candy in your house though, or
did Lauren throw it away?

Speaker 3 (02:12):
Kind of Oh you have your own stash. I like it, Doug,
but his wife called the crappy candy. You know, I
didn't think there's no such thing as crappy can butterface butterfingers.
It has one hundred grant so you know it's embarrassing.
But I took a few handfuls and put them in
my bag, my work bag. I have a few candy, Yeah, candies.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
So my made cookies for Lauren's birthdays.

Speaker 4 (02:39):
So we're trying to give rid of those two.

Speaker 2 (02:41):
They're get rid of them.

Speaker 4 (02:42):
You're the best cookie she's ever made. What are they?
There's they're chocolate chip short bread.

Speaker 2 (02:46):
Yeah, but they're like they're not dark chocolate. They're like
a mixed with the other dark chocolate. But now like
like not a buddy. The other thing I want to
say about that, though, is she's a great baker. Baker.
That's another bigre that grinds my gears too.

Speaker 4 (03:01):
She just got the New New York Times Cookie book.

Speaker 3 (03:03):
Yeah, it's all like the best cookies from the New
York Times Cooking section.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
But so we stop over Monday night and drop cookies
off for Lauren. It was her birthday Monday thirty five. Yeah,
Jude had a cookie, and what did he say the
next morning when he got break this morning?

Speaker 4 (03:19):
Want another breakfast cookie?

Speaker 2 (03:20):
What is the breakfast cookie?

Speaker 4 (03:24):
Even this morning.

Speaker 3 (03:25):
I'm like, no, you can't have a breakfast cookie. You
can only have breakfast cookies, you know, on special occasion.
I want to breakfast cookie for anything else, how you know,
But mom, I like it, though I don't as May
was loving the cookies because Mommy, she does an egg wash,
but we have a you know, she's about one and
a half and she's allergic to eggs. So mom did
like a butter wash, yeah, on top of them. And

(03:47):
they're just so great, soft and moist. And you saved
myself getting larger and large.

Speaker 2 (03:52):
You save in Esme's life, trying to kill me.

Speaker 4 (03:54):
Yeah, exactly did you have one? Yeah, you had one
on Lauren's birthday.

Speaker 2 (03:58):
Cookies we had leftover.

Speaker 3 (04:00):
Okay, just like they have one left lens like Denti's
out of the house.

Speaker 4 (04:04):
She's like shit for yesterday for the day before.

Speaker 2 (04:07):
You know, I had won my at home last night
and it's some Halloween candy.

Speaker 4 (04:10):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
The other thing I was thinking. The other thing is
I wanted to man and then we'll segue right into
the show. Now, to a certain extent, beyond the news
is something that MFS puts out and this is definitely
topical because it impacts all of America, I believe, and
it also impacts investors, maybe in a positive way, maybe

(04:32):
in a negative way.

Speaker 4 (04:34):
What are you talking about?

Speaker 2 (04:35):
Young adults bet on sports more than any other age group,
but they're also growing uneasy about it. While thirty one
percent of adults under thirty have bet on sports in
the past year versus twenty two percent of all adults,
forty seven percent of men under thirty now say legal
sports betting is bad for society, which is more than
double the twenty two percent, And that's according to a

(04:56):
Pew research twenty two percent who felt similarly in twenty
twenty two. Again a tribute to that the Pew research. Now,
there's been a couple incidents, you know, in the NBA
basketball and the Major League.

Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah, and on.

Speaker 2 (05:12):
This prop betting, and you know, I guess I never
realized it went to the extent that it did. I
guess I've never realized what prop betting was really you know,
you know, it's just I know what it was. But
it was like, okay, well will the national anthemy be
more or less than two and a half minutes? Stuff
like that.

Speaker 4 (05:28):
It was fun, right, like that was a fun thing
to do on the Super.

Speaker 2 (05:31):
Bowl once in a while.

Speaker 4 (05:34):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (05:34):
I I think it's crazy that, you know, just as
a society, we decide what's okay and what's not okay,
and once it's legal, it's completely okay.

Speaker 1 (05:45):
Right.

Speaker 3 (05:45):
We didn't test this at all in any markets really
before this came out, and then now we're seeing I mean,
you know, I had before the Knicks game.

Speaker 4 (05:54):
You know, the pick of the night, Carmelo's pick of
the night, Like we're listening.

Speaker 3 (05:58):
To Carmelo Anthony for for a pick. There's DraftKings ads everywhere.
I mean there's there's multiple, uh you know ads in
every single game, you know, along the courts and stuff
like scrolling and out of any addiction, h gambling addiction
as the highest suicide rate actually, and I just think

(06:21):
it is bad, and I think it's I think I
think sports betting is a dangerous is just dangerous in
general too. You know, Jack White, He's from the White Stripes,
was just adducted into the Hall of Fame, the where
I can roll Hall of Fame. And in his speech,
he basically is like, and I don't I don't know how.

Speaker 4 (06:41):
I don't know him, Jack White, the White Stripes.

Speaker 3 (06:44):
He's like one of the he's famous, one of the
you know, one of the amazing musicians.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Ya.

Speaker 3 (06:50):
But he basically says, like, you know, put your phone
down and become obsessed with something. You know, put your
phone down, get out there, get out of your basement,
get get out there.

Speaker 4 (06:59):
Get up sessed with something, but put the phones down.

Speaker 3 (07:02):
I think, you know, sports gambling is is like that
in that, you know, you.

Speaker 4 (07:06):
Just get lost in whatever bet you have on.

Speaker 3 (07:10):
And I think it's and I don't like and you know,
I guess I'm going off on a little tangent here,
but I think it's, you know, it's just one of
those things where, you know, I think younger people are
just you know, kind of using it to really turn
their brain off and get get that.

Speaker 4 (07:24):
You know, it's like a high, you know, a dopamine
high off, you.

Speaker 3 (07:28):
Know, rather than running rather than doing something else, you know,
And I think it's, you know, it's just you know,
I think the way the ease of entertainment has kind
of it is really dangerous for the human mind, but
also definitely people who are growing up with it too,
And I think that's kind of that's that's what scares
me the most. I guess about gambling is just.

Speaker 2 (07:47):
What was it? I mean, was it here before anyways?
Like you know, at least it's it's like saying, legalize marijuana. Well, okay,
legalized marijuana takes crime out of it, supposedly, but you know,
but maybe with the taxes and everything on dispensaries. And
I don't use it, so I have no clue how
that works as far as, like, you know, whether it's
more expensive. Certainly it's safer than buying it on the street,

(08:09):
I would imagine, but you know, I I but so
if you legalize it, at least you get problems out
in the open, so you can deal with people's problems
if they occur from marijuana. I'm not saying that they do,
but if they if problems occur from gambling, at least
you know, you're not dealing with maybe crime involved or
organized crime, you know, So I'm not I'm.

Speaker 3 (08:28):
Not worried about that as much as I have about
like the deterioration of your mental health and about the
addiction finances as well.

Speaker 2 (08:35):
Yeah, yeah for sure. But so to to then complete
that segue to our radio show, you know, and one
more thing. I mean, these prop bets are like you
can bet on the next pitch, is it going to
be a ball or strike? Is gonna be high low?

Speaker 4 (08:50):
That's definitely home run things like that.

Speaker 2 (08:53):
Yeah, but but even things you can control air like this,
these pictures from the Cleveland Guardians were like they could
you could bet on what's the next is the is
the bad or going to swing at the next pitch,
and so they would they would like bounce it along
the ground.

Speaker 4 (09:08):
Yeah I know.

Speaker 2 (09:09):
I mean it's like a home run where Okay, you
know at least.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
Well even like you know, there's rules and regulations for cigarettes,
for alcohol for whatever. But like seventy five percent of
sports books profits are parlays, and they shove like parlay
like you know, benefits to betting parlays down your throat
on all these betting sites, you know what I mean,

(09:31):
So twenty percent plus parlay boost things like that when
seventy five percent of their revenue is from.

Speaker 4 (09:37):
Parlays, you know, So I don't know.

Speaker 3 (09:39):
I just think it's kind of like the wild wild West,
and I think it's dangerous, you know, I think it's
I also think it's weird that, you know, politicians get
to the side at the drop of a hat what's
good and what's bad for Americans. Then we all just
accept it and pretend like it wasn't illegal a year ago, right,
you know?

Speaker 2 (09:56):
And I think, you know, I was listening to something
said that the if the government shut down ends for
the next two or three months, within that, within the
agreement is the fact that Congressmen and senators are paid
for the next year, so even if they shut down
again in January. But so so, but if you look,
if you look at how that how that impacts investing.

(10:21):
According to the CFA Certify Financial CFA Institute, sixty one
percent of gen Z investors aged eighteen to twenty five
gamble online or in person. I mean sixty one percent.
What do you what do you what do you think

(10:43):
about that? I mean, as far as is that detrimental,
like is gambling in general? Is the interest in sports
gambling and interest in like the the gamification of investing,
even options trading help, But is it helping investors because
they're becoming more interested in it. Like you know that
if you're if you're losing money, you know what I mean?
Does it create an interest in in in investing that

(11:07):
will then help you later in life?

Speaker 4 (11:10):
You know, sports, gambling? No, yeah, you know.

Speaker 2 (11:14):
Like just the your interest in the stock market, you know,
you know, you put away you know, one hundred bucks
a week.

Speaker 4 (11:19):
I think, you know, I.

Speaker 3 (11:21):
Think I think that it makes you more knowledgeable of
like retirement accounts.

Speaker 4 (11:25):
You know.

Speaker 3 (11:25):
I think most people i'd have to guess that have
a job in their twenties that are you know, maybe
have a couple thousand bucks in their Robinhood account doing whatever,
you know, also take advantage of, you know, the retirement
accounts that they're supposed to. I think that younger people
are way more knowledgeable than previous generations of the benefits
of the stock market.

Speaker 2 (11:47):
Does knowledge create Does knowledge create wealth? Though? Yeah, you know,
I don't know, you know, I don't know. Some knowledge does.

Speaker 4 (11:58):
There's always one offs. But I think I think, but.

Speaker 2 (12:01):
The smarter people don't always do better in the stock market.
You know, I was meeting with somebody lesson who's very smart.
By the way, you know, he's talking about diversification, he's
talking about time in the market, he's talking about not
paying attention to the short term volatility. And I think
there has been studies done they show the smarter you are,
the more you try to control all different components of

(12:23):
your life, rather than let other people control the components
that you realize you can't control.

Speaker 3 (12:29):
Like, you know, well, I think that a lot of
when when we think of people that are smart, I
think a lot of these people work like in the sciences,
and there's you know, in the sciences, there's fact and
then there's not right. So I think that you know,
a lot of the people that I run into that
have a hard time, you know, that have a lot
of earnings potential, that make a lot of money, but
you know, kind of don't love the stock market is

(12:52):
because there is it's so much of an art and
a gray area as opposed to other sciences. Well, so
I think it's hard for some people to be okay
and comfortable with the unknowns that you know, the stock
market brings. You could say, oh, you know, historically, historically historically,
but that's you know, what what do we say on

(13:13):
the show? You know, past performance is no guarantee of
future results. So I think that I think that has
a I think that's hard for for smarter people to
you know, historical you know, smarter people you know, I
guess you know on paper and jobs that we consider smart.

Speaker 2 (13:28):
Well, because the movements in the movements in the market
become much more random the more you shorten the timeframe.

Speaker 4 (13:35):
Right, and the market is a rational right.

Speaker 2 (13:37):
Over a short period of time. I was talking again
somebody within the last day or two when we're talking
about you know, if if we had a radio show
about flipping a coin a thousand times, we couldn't really
make it interesting, but I could make it interesting as
to flipping a coin once. Is it going to be heads?
Is it going to be tails? You know, what's what's

(13:57):
the table look like that you're gonna flip and I'm
gonna flip it on the you know, what was it
last time? You know? Is there any wind? You know,
what's the size of the coin? You know? Where are
you on the earth? And I think that and we
go round and round with all that stuff, so you know,
so I you know, I do think the market is
a random walk for the short term, and then it

(14:18):
becomes more predictable over the long term. So it's very
different than gambling. I do think it's positive for all
investors to become knowledgeable about their investments, just like it's
it's it's like it's it's it's. I think it's a
positive for for me to know something about cars, but
it and a lot of people go that distance. You know,
a good friend of ours, uncle Mike, knows a lot

(14:40):
about you know, vehicles on Michael Denio knows a lot.
I don't know much at all. So so you know, yeah,
I wish I knew more, But you then got to
take the next step to do to do all the
repairs yourself, which some people do within their within their
job and other people's do do as as a hobby
or you know, something that they like. And I think

(15:00):
investing is the same way. And I do think that
you know, when you when you have an interest in something,
and maybe gambling sparks that interest, you know, it helps.
And I'm talking about the.

Speaker 3 (15:13):
Stock either eighteen or nineteen, like you know, and I
I you know, when I was in college, the stock
market was just starting to get popular because I went
I was in college during Great Financial Crisis, so you
know that just everyone became kind of more knowledgeable about that.
So I do think, like you can call it the
gamification of the stock market or whatever.

Speaker 4 (15:33):
I do think it is good.

Speaker 3 (15:34):
It is it is good for the overall as a whole, Yes,
because I think people are becoming more knowledgeable about the
benefits of this.

Speaker 2 (15:42):
So you would call it the gamification of investing has
been good for investors knowledge in general. Yeah, I think
would you say that gambling is like in hot I
was like eating hot dogs, inherent cigarettes inherently bad?

Speaker 3 (15:57):
Like no, no, is gambling inherently bad?

Speaker 4 (16:06):
Inherently is alcohol?

Speaker 2 (16:07):
I mean it's alcohol, Yeah, I would think so, Yeah,
I think alcohol is inherently bad.

Speaker 4 (16:12):
So yeah, I think yes. But you know, but.

Speaker 2 (16:19):
I don't think. I don't think. I don't think the
gamification of the stock market is inherently bad.

Speaker 3 (16:22):
No, no, I don't either, but I you know, yeah,
I mean I think if sports gambling went away completely.

Speaker 4 (16:30):
Which is never going to another right, So you know,
I don't think that.

Speaker 2 (16:35):
You know, there's a couple of you know, we talked
about there's those two articles and we put a Polish
papers on our on our desks and we go through
them in order, so pull up those two The most
important concept in finance from Ben Carlson, and then the
four questions you should ask the combat, the combat, the
market chaos.

Speaker 3 (16:53):
I wanted, can I can? I? You know, we're starting
to be on the news, and I thought that was interesting.
What do you think of you know, so that this
is forty is the new thirty? The share first time
home buyers dropped to a record low twenty one percent,
and their average aids increase to an all time forty.

Speaker 2 (17:12):
Something's got to change forty years.

Speaker 3 (17:13):
Old as opposed to I think twenty years ago when
it was thirty one, you know, and now President Trump
comes out and talks about a fifty year mortgage.

Speaker 4 (17:25):
What is your opinion on that?

Speaker 2 (17:29):
Well, a couple of things. One is is it is it?
You know? If you look at right now and I
know that that little blurb and beyond the nut from
MFS goes on to say delaying home ownership from age
thirty to forty can mean losing one hundred and fifty
thousand and built up equity on an average starter home,
which is all well and good. However, if if you're

(17:50):
and I don't know, if there is a difference, you know,
if you were to if you were to compute, and
I'm sure there's statistics somewhere and we don't have it
in front of us. I'll compute the cost of owning
a home versus is renting. Let's say the cost of
owning a home is thirty five hundred dollars a month
and the cost of renting is two thousand dollars a month.
Right when you take a cost of owning home between
upkeep inside and outside, principal interest and taxes on your mortgage,

(18:16):
you know, and the like utilities, Let's say it could
rent for two thousand. The difference a fifteen hundred a
month over a ten year period is one hundred and
eighty grand. I think a lot of and a component
of why we're seeing so many apartments go up is
I don't think, you know, I think and this is

(18:37):
just anecdotally and purely. You know, someone could say that
I'm dead wrong, But I think the average person thirty
or thirty five doesn't want They don't want the headache
of the home, they don't want the responsibility of the home.
They might have one kid, they might have no children,
and a dog. I think it's a whole different generation
that's not seeing really the value in home ownership.

Speaker 4 (18:55):
Like the say, is that because that they have to
and homes are unaffordable?

Speaker 2 (19:01):
Yeah, I think part of that. Part of it is
that it's not only unaffordable, but the appreciation potential probably
isn't there like it was, right, you know, because if
you look at what home, the cost of a home
is going up and you know, so, so I do
think a lot of it has.

Speaker 3 (19:14):
You know, I think just worldwide two people are having
kids at older, older ages because of that unaffordability as well.
So you know, if you don't have a kid, you
know why, you know, I think a lot of people
are like, maybe why buy a house? But you know,
even that thirty year vers fifty year mortgage, right, if
you take out four hundred thousand dollars mortgage, you know,
your payment basically goes down one hundred and fifty bucks

(19:36):
a month, right, So it's not really that astronomical for
fifty year mortgage. Yeah, but your total interest paid is
almost double. So a thirty year mortgage for hue thousand
dollars six point three one percent for the thirty year
six point seventy one percent for the fifty word be
a little bit higher. The monthly payment and insurance would
be two thousand, four hundred and seventy eight dollars for

(19:58):
a thirty year and two thousand, three hun ndred.

Speaker 4 (20:00):
And eighteen dollars for the fifty year.

Speaker 3 (20:03):
Total interest paid would be four hundred and ninety two
thousand for the thirty year, and then for a fifty
year be nine hundred and ninety one thousand. So I
don't think the fifty year mortgage is really going to
benefit anyone really but banks.

Speaker 4 (20:18):
So I don't know it.

Speaker 2 (20:20):
May you know, I would think that if you know,
maybe it's just a matter of we're not used to
a fifty year mortgage. I would think that if interest
rates were two and a half percent, I would have
taken out a fifty year mortgage, you know. So some
of it's, you know, because if you look at where
interest rates are today, if you look at where interest

(20:41):
rates are today, you could pick your time frame. If
you look at where interest rates are today over the
past fifteen years, you'd say I'd never take out a
fifteen fifty year mortgage. But if you look at interest
rates today versus where they can bend over the past
fifty years, you'd say, Wow, it's a good bargain. So
if I looked at interest rates, and I do have
a mortgage that's about two and three eights, I think

(21:02):
in and around there it's a fifteen year mortgage, and
we took it out in twenty seventeen, I think seventeen
and around fifteen.

Speaker 4 (21:11):
Yeah, your fifteen year mortgage.

Speaker 2 (21:12):
Right at two, I think it's two and three eights.
If seven said here's a fifty year mortgage at two
and three eights, I would have gone.

Speaker 4 (21:19):
Wouldn't be two and three eights, that would be three.

Speaker 2 (21:21):
And what It might be a little bit because banks
want to be compensated for the additional risk. And so
I think the numbers you quoted are are the same
rate for thirty and a fifty, Right.

Speaker 4 (21:31):
It was zero point two percent different.

Speaker 2 (21:33):
All right, So the point two is the is the
fifty you know, Yeah, I think I think it's I
think it's I think it's bad because I think it
although the average homeown only stays in their house for
seven years, so really for point two, right, yeah, but
I think if interest rates went to ten percent, some
would be stuck in that, you know, it could could

(21:54):
be where so interest rates went from two and a
half to six and a half, so people having a
two and a half percent mortgage are stuck in that house.
You could also have the fact that interest rates go
up a lot, they're stuck.

Speaker 3 (22:03):
I just don't think it's fixing the problem of the
housing market, you know. I think what would fix the
problem is, as you know, I think you've said this before,
is incentivizing people to maybe shop around if they if
they have that because I'm in like the you know,
I bought my house in twenty and twenty one, so
I have a really low mortgage and I'm not going.

Speaker 2 (22:21):
Anywhere subsidizing interest payments somehow.

Speaker 4 (22:24):
Something like that.

Speaker 3 (22:24):
How do you incentivize people with those low mortgages who
are unhappy in their current home tax policy?

Speaker 2 (22:30):
Yeah, you know. The only way you can do it,
you know, and that's the only really way you can
do it. I mean, you can't force home builders to
cut their prices, cut their margin, so you basically have
to incentivize that more through some sort of either tax plan,
fiscal plan from the government, rebates, whatever, you know. But
that doesn't sound like it's going to happen, you know,

(22:52):
anytime soon. So I think we're gonna ge stuck in there.
But it never does cease to amaze me the the
number of apartments. What else we got any more thing?
We got about another one and a half minutes. And
then and then I want to get into the most
important concept in finance, talks about the short term fluctuations
in the market and how to combat the market. Cast.
It was last week the market was very volatile, and

(23:13):
this is an article from Jason's wag And the first
thing you say is is if you must panic, panic
panic methodically, and we'll talk a little bit about that.
Let me see here, one more thing I guess coming
out of this, I guess we could talk a little
bit about the whole. And we only got a minute.
The SoftBank sells its entire stake in the video for
five point eight three billion. Wells Fargo went on to say,

(23:34):
it's time to take some tech profits off the table.
But then fox Con, which is a supplier to Nvidio,
had you know, seventeen percent profit surge. What do you
think about that in general? Maybe we have to touch
on that a little bit after the break. But the
whole get out of tech or reduce tech.

Speaker 3 (23:51):
I think, what did you say before that? I think
you have to have a strategy during you.

Speaker 2 (23:54):
Know, panic, if you're going to panic, panic methodically.

Speaker 3 (23:56):
I think you always have to have you know, methodology
and everything that's you do. So I think that that
that that's what you need to do.

Speaker 2 (24:03):
Right I would agree with that. You know, and you
look at you know, forty percent of you know, the
S and P five hundred is technology, communication services or
consumer discretion there and I think, you know, if you
want to lock yourself into the SMP, which most professionals
suggest that's the way you gotta do it really has
had that type of allocation. But right now, it's ten
thirty on the station you depend upon for news, weather,
and information, News Talk A ten and one O three

(24:25):
one w g Y. Good morning, and welcome back to
the second half ound the Capitol District's Money and Investment Program.
You're listening to the Fagan Financial Report. IM Dennis Fagan
sitting here with my son Aaron, as we do every
Sunday right here in News Talk A ten and one
O three one w GY. I have I'm going on
vacation though for a little while, so we're doing this
Wednesday morning. Yeah, so so we're having to record this

(24:48):
a little bit earlier in the week than we usually
like to. Uh so we're just a little broader in content.
Then then then you're used to if you're a regular listener.
And and also as I look out the window right now,
it's going a little bit here in Troy, New York's. Yeah,
it's kind of nice. Yeah, well, everyone likes the first few,
you know, and then but then Sunday it's supposed to

(25:09):
be forty six high, thirty one lower.

Speaker 3 (25:11):
Really you just like our clients who live in Florida,
I know, you know, and what's it going to be
in Florida?

Speaker 2 (25:16):
Right? Right? Right? So, but it is supposed to.

Speaker 4 (25:19):
Be nice to spend some time with mom.

Speaker 2 (25:21):
It would be nice.

Speaker 4 (25:22):
What would be nice?

Speaker 2 (25:23):
What about her? We're going to be nice to spend
some time with me?

Speaker 4 (25:27):
I mean you're a workaholic.

Speaker 2 (25:29):
We were talking about that.

Speaker 3 (25:30):
Yeah, and I know he's stressed out right now, in
a bad mood.

Speaker 2 (25:35):
Well, it's like carry it away now, he's, you.

Speaker 4 (25:37):
Know, trying to get some It's a busy time of
the year. We got a lot, not a lot going on.

Speaker 3 (25:42):
We're we're rebalancing we we rebalanced quarterly, we get R
M d's out at the end of the year, we
tax lashed harvest at the end of the year. So yeah,
I think this week we're kind of you know, getting
some you know, documents and things together so we can
work on the things that we can work on here
at the office.

Speaker 4 (26:00):
When you come back.

Speaker 2 (26:01):
Yeah, and everything will be will be. We'll be hitting
on all cylinders.

Speaker 3 (26:06):
Last thing he wanted you to get back in the
office getting in trouble, So we'll try.

Speaker 2 (26:10):
To getting in trouble. Yeah, wink wink. The most important
concept in finance is an article by Ben Carlson. It
says there is a book Andreas that he alludes to,

(26:35):
and it's Daniel Commons k A h N E. M
A N's work, and he also refers to as Jason's
wig and Conman talks about loss of version is perhaps
the most important money concept in According from Ben Carlson's blog,
concept of the losses impact your money emotions in so
many ways. Losses can cause panic in the markets. Losses

(26:57):
can cause your percession, change your perception of risk, and
like Mike Tyson says, everybody has a plan until they're
punched in the face. Losses in the present can impact
your investment posture in the future. The fear of losses
can cause investors to create suboptimal portfolio allocations, and losses
can force investors into holding on to losing positions because
they won't sell until they break even. Let's let's take

(27:20):
them one by one er. Losses can cause panic in
the markets. You know, if you have something off the
top of your head, go for it or else I'll
talk for a couple of years. Losses can cause panic
in the markets. Loss of version, Yeah, you know, I
I why is that?

Speaker 4 (27:37):
Yet? I agree with that.

Speaker 2 (27:40):
It's different this time.

Speaker 3 (27:41):
Psychologically what a loss is two times worse than you know,
the feeling right, you know, the feeling of the same.

Speaker 4 (27:49):
Why is it? Why?

Speaker 2 (27:51):
Well, losses can could? I think everybody thinks, well, it's
different this time. The tariffs are different. Trump is different.
It doesn't know the story.

Speaker 3 (27:59):
I think we to be optimistic in individuals when when
when our accounts are doing well, you know, just think
of clients like they talk about their how much they're
down from the top.

Speaker 4 (28:12):
It's always from.

Speaker 3 (28:12):
The top when you're you know, in a bear market,
but it's never you know, what you started within what
you have now, you know, but it's always oh, you know,
I had a million bucks.

Speaker 4 (28:20):
Now it's nine hundred and fifty.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
Right, you know, but it's lost.

Speaker 3 (28:24):
That's a new car, but that's never you know, well
you started with five point fifty, right, you know. So
you know, I think I think I think we you know,
as individuals, don't like unknownst either. And I think I
think when the market's going down, you know, that fear
of it can continue to go down and continue to
go down is uh, you know, is exacerbated because there's

(28:48):
always that there's it's not a zero probability that the
market doesn't go down seventy percent. You know, there's always
a small probably that happens, and just that small probability,
I think, you know, keeps people up at night.

Speaker 2 (28:58):
And I think that that small probability not only keeps
people up to night, but it's also you know, like
I mentioned, it's also it's taken advantage of by by
the networks. The market goes down ten percent, and rule
of thumb, if the market's down ten or fifteen percent,
if you buy into that, there's a much greater likelihood

(29:20):
that you'll be you'll be making money over a year
or two.

Speaker 3 (29:22):
Well, yeah, and you know, I guess this is a
little off topic, but I guess it's still from the
same psychological factor. And I think that's what makes you know,
investing always scary is that you always have, you know,
just with the ease of access to your accounts, you
always have the probability there's always a a possibility that

(29:47):
you over allocate to something and completely you know, mess
your financial life up, you know, and you know, the
more you succeed, the more you succeed in I guess
unhealthy ways, the better chance you have of of doing
something that can really hurt you financially. And you know,

(30:09):
there's no endgame in finance finances, so I think, like
what's hard for that? And like your own account is
like there's never any like you.

Speaker 4 (30:18):
Never get to the top and realize you're at the top.
Like do you remember Scotti Scheffler, the golfer got in
a little bit of trouble a few years ago or
earlier this year, Like, oh, what's he saying?

Speaker 3 (30:28):
But he basically said, like you know, I just pulled
the quote up, like this is not a fulfilling life.
It's fulfilling from the sense of accomplishment, but it's not
fulfilling from a sense.

Speaker 4 (30:36):
Of the deepest places in your heart.

Speaker 3 (30:38):
There's a lot of people that make it, make it
to where they thought they were was going to fulfill
them in life. And you get there, you get to
number one in the world, and they're like, what's the point?
And I think that's what's hard in investing is there's
no number one. There's always you know, there's always that
you know more, more and more and more and more.
And I think if you like I guess, if you
get obsessed with that and and and you.

Speaker 4 (31:00):
Always want more, you know, the.

Speaker 3 (31:03):
Probability of something you know drastically happened happening to your
financial future, you know it's greater. So like no, so
as investors, you never get hit over the head with
like I got here.

Speaker 2 (31:16):
Right, You're never there.

Speaker 4 (31:17):
You're never there.

Speaker 3 (31:18):
So I think I think that's what makes investing, you know, dangerous.
You know, you never you know, you never realize you
know something like it's you know, you have to become
a good investor through trial and error. So if you start,
you know, if you start that trial and error later
in life, when you have more money, you know you
have you have the great a bigger probability of doing

(31:41):
something that can mess up your financial future, which you know,
we were talking about the gamification of the market earlier.
Maybe it's good for people to start learning this at
a younger age, right, you know, maybe you're learning of
oh maybe I shouldn't trade options at eighteen rather than
forty five.

Speaker 2 (31:54):
You know, well we were talking about that earlier, not earlier,
probably within the past couple of months about yes, it's
you know, you you have ten grand have at it
because it's a good learning process to learn what you're doing.
And then you say, okay, do I like this is
my is my temperament suited towards this? Uh? And then
you go from there. Perhaps you invest your money on

(32:15):
your own for the rest of your life. Uh, or
you find out that hey, I'm not well suited for this.
I did panic, I got out. You know, my mind
is does not click on the on on the uh
the technical side or the fundamental side of investing. Uh.
You know, or you know is you know when you
have retire and you have five hundred thousand or million

(32:35):
dollars in your four one k, you know, that's when
you better know what you're doing or get I often say,
you're you're you're in a you're in a boat or
a canoe. You're going down river. Somebody better have a paddle.
You know, it's either you or your advisor better know
what they're doing, or else you can end up in
a lot of trouble. And I think some of the
greatest losses that we've seen investors incur. And we have

(32:58):
we have discretion on all of our accounts, but you know,
some people probably a handful, literally a handful, and we
have hundreds of accounts that we manage literally a handful
invest you know, they say, hey, buy this or buy that.
We don't do that because that's not our business. But
you know, for somebody might have an account with us
and then they have a little account and they say, hey,

(33:19):
this is I want to keep on my own, but
I want you to kind of watch it. But I'm
going to call you up and say place these trades.
The biggest mistakes people make is either they're underdiversified, they
chase meme stocks, or they panic at the bottom. And
those are the three areas that can really screw up
your longer term finances. If you're not doing it with
ten thousand. If you have a million, you're doing with

(33:39):
a million dollars. And you see that thing go back,
you know, one of the things that also when you
think about in you know, in investing, that that panic,
you know, and it moves to that other article. I
want to just move there for a second, to the
one by Jason's Wag and then back to the Ben
Carlson's blog. If you must panic, panic methodically. Like everything

(34:02):
else in life, if you work at things incrementally, you're
better served usually than if you work in a wholesale fashion.
You know, if you're sixty five percent in the market
or seventy five percent in the market, and you're worried
about the stock market, reduce your holdings by ten percent,
go from seventy five to sixty five or seventy five
to sixty. Don't from from seventy five to zero, because

(34:25):
that implies that you know the future. And nobody can
quantify human behavior. And I think we've seen that really,
you know, over the past year or so during the
Trump administration, that President Trump is his methodologies are unconventional
and unpredictable, and so you really don't know where the
how them, and you don't know how the market's going

(34:45):
to respond to things things in general, So I think
if you're going to panic, panic methodically. The other thing too,
the second point in that block from Ben Carlson's losses
can change your perception of risk. And you know, one
of the things that we talk about quite often is
our job is to tell you the level of risk

(35:05):
that you should have in your portfolio, based upon your finances,
based upon your sources of income in retirement, if you're
going into retirement, based upon your Social Security benefits, based
upon your health, based upon your family situation, based upon
your expenses, based upon your debt. And there's probably three
or four of the things that I forgot to mention

(35:27):
our job, and this is why you know it's so hard.
Our job is to kind of feel feel you know,
feel you feel you out about risk. But if losses
can change your perception of risk, which I definitely think
is true, we don't know your risk tolerance until until
you're really punching the face, and we may have we
may we may have an example of it during like

(35:48):
let's say you were around in O eight and you
went all to cash and stay there. Well, we're going
to get a feeling that you know you you are
kind of risk adverse, and yet you know it's our
job say hey, you should be sixty five percent in
the stock market, and we provide parameters there. Your job
is to say I'm not comfortable with that or whatever
and then work from there. But our job is not
to is not to for you to say right up front,

(36:11):
I want twenty five percent in the stock market because
kind of like because if you're relying on us to
do something for you, you know, our job is to
determine what your needs are, and your job is to
determine how you how you're going to respond. It's like
going to the doctor and say, hey, give me this
or give me that. It's their job to prescribe it.
It's your jobs to take it or not or or

(36:32):
kind of manage that. Losses in the present can impact
your investment posture in the future, how you how you
move in the future, Like if you if you suffer
a big loss, you know, there's there's an old saying that,
and it goes along with the second one. The fear
of loss is the next one. Can cause investors to
create suboptimal portfolio allocations. There's an old saying people hold

(36:53):
too much cash at the bottom of markets and too
little cash at the top.

Speaker 4 (36:57):
Yeah, so that's true.

Speaker 2 (36:59):
Even you're getting bored.

Speaker 4 (37:00):
Yeah, you're boring me. That's okay. Though I have an interesting.

Speaker 2 (37:06):
You have what an This is going to be interesting, okay,
And it's the.

Speaker 3 (37:10):
Need international developed market allocation. And you never think you
need it until you need it, and you know, it's
it's funny this year.

Speaker 4 (37:21):
You know, usually you know, the.

Speaker 3 (37:23):
Stock market, US stock market, you look at a five
year return and it's it's substantially better than most markets.
But you know, interestingly, the US stock market total return
through November seventh, during Trump's presidency, was thirteen percent. There
are eighteen other developed countries that are doing better than

(37:45):
the United States, which I found really interesting.

Speaker 2 (37:49):
Is there a list of those or Spain is.

Speaker 3 (37:51):
Number one at sixty one percent, Austria, Finland, Ireland, Hong Kong, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Singapore, Japan, UK, Netherlands, Canada, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, Israel.

Speaker 4 (38:01):
France, Norway.

Speaker 3 (38:04):
Surprised, well, well, Novo Nordisk is Denmark, Is that right? Right?

Speaker 2 (38:09):
No? But Norway's got a lot of oil. Well, and
natural guess after coast. So the Spanish, the Spanish I
shares etf simple EWP is up sixty nine percent year
to date over three year trails. So the question is
where do we go from here? With that? I would
say if I'm a listener.

Speaker 3 (38:27):
I mean, I think a lot of this has to
do with the declining value of the dollar as well,
you know, would.

Speaker 4 (38:32):
Do good for for you know.

Speaker 3 (38:36):
European countries or you know, other developed markets in particular.
So I think if the dollar stabilizes, you know, other
countries you know, won't do as good as the United States.

Speaker 4 (38:47):
But I think, you know, I think it's just kind
of they have done.

Speaker 3 (38:51):
They've lags you know, the US market for so long
that I think it has a little bit to do
with that as well.

Speaker 2 (38:58):
Yeah, there was I forget who did this study. It
might have been double line with Jeffrey Gunlock, but just
talked about the trillion I think twenty eight trillion dollars
or some ungodly number, almost like unimaginable number of foreign
funds have flowed into United States over the past decade
a couple of decades, and that that has helped fuel

(39:20):
the US's outperformance relative to the international markets. And granted,
you can always pick a couple of markets here or
there that have outperformed the US. I mean, you know,
there's dozens of.

Speaker 4 (39:30):
Publican denmarkts, you know historically, you know, but you.

Speaker 2 (39:36):
Know, something like a quarter percent of Denmark's GDP comes
from Nobles by the way, and Maresk is there. And
there was another that's huge in Denmark, the other big
player Denmark and I'm not sure it's an e ED
and there's a Denmark ETF and it's a very recognizable
company Donsk, I forget. But anyways, shipping company, Marisk is

(39:59):
a shipping compan I mean, I was we were in
Denmark one time and I saw that huge buildings over there,
Novil Norris because is twenty percent of their ETF. But
I would say that I think. But so he is suggesting,
and I don't disagree with this, that there doesn't have
to be a mass exus from the US. There can

(40:19):
be like a slow leak back from the US to
reph repatriot currencies to you know. Yeah, and that's going
to cause I think we've said that and we haven't
really acted upon it that great because I think if
you look at we have.

Speaker 3 (40:36):
DGT is our what I think, it's our largest ETF
holding on the equity side, that is a global ETF.
So I think it's fifty two percent outside of the
unit the United States.

Speaker 2 (40:47):
But if you were to say, okay, if you were
to say, if dgt's up, what's d GT.

Speaker 4 (40:52):
UF, I don't know. Right now.

Speaker 3 (40:56):
You're faster than man. This six point two eight percent
year today.

Speaker 2 (41:02):
And so year to date. Our portfolio is most like
not the DGT because that's more of a conservative, not
a conservative. But it's because you're still on there. What's
what's the d g T? What do you know? Can
you do you already punch up what it's comprised of?
Can you just scroll down? Or no?

Speaker 4 (41:19):
No, I don't know.

Speaker 2 (41:20):
Okay, So the DGT some of the largest holding we
don't we own we own quite a bit of it,
you know. It's our second largest international holding. If you
look at d GT, their largest holdings are Intel, A
M D, Caterpillar, Soft Bank, Lily, Tesla, DuPont, l b M,
h IBM. I think our largest if you were to say,

(41:43):
what's your domestic portfolio, like if you had a it's
most like the the IOO you know, if and if
you look at the IOO and what that is, that
is the I shares Global ETF and they invest in
the performance of the one hundred the one hundred largest
global companies and the five largest holdings there Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet.

Speaker 3 (42:07):
So it's global, but it's you know, obviously most of
the largest companies in the world are US companies. The
largest that's outside of the US looks to be ten Cent,
which is like eleven or ten.

Speaker 2 (42:21):
Right, So I think that we have benefited from investing
domestically with a international kind of bent with some of
these large international companies. On the domestic side, we've used
IOO and DGT. But I think going forward, I would

(42:42):
say that I think the market is spreading out. I
think it will accelerate after the new year. I think
investors are they're going to have to chase I think
they're going to have to chase performance as we close
out twenty five, and I think next year we're going
to get much more even performance between you know what's
led the market that share, which is consumer discretionary, communication

(43:05):
services and technology versus the other you know, eight sectors.
I think next year we're going to see much more
balanced performance. What do you think about that, I'm I
think just more of the same.

Speaker 4 (43:17):
I think it will be. I think it'll be more
of the same.

Speaker 3 (43:20):
I think that those other four hundred and ninety three
companies outside the Magnificent seven are going to have a
hard time, you know, Towards and Slock had a chart
the other day of that those four ninety three, they're
way more impacted by the consumer as opposed you know,
technology isn't impacted by you know, the day to day consumers.
So I'm worried about that the four ninety three being
more impacted by tariffs, which we've seen with a decreasing

(43:42):
project private margin, and that case shaped economy, so the
lower end consumer not doing as well as the higher
end consumer. So I don't think those really effect as
much you know, the Google, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and
videos of the world. But I do think, you know,
those four ninety three are gonna could run into some
trouble with uh, yeah, the combination of tariffs, having to

(44:03):
raise prices because it's in you know, eventually having to
raise prices, and then and then yeah, yeah, that case
shaped economy, so that lower end consumer not doing well
but does that even like inflation, Like and I'm also nervous, like,
you know, we're still not getting numbers from the BLS
really right, So when will we start to get numbers
on the BS. Trump just said that tear inflation's at

(44:25):
two percent. That's a lie. Inflation's at three percent, right, Yeah, yeah, yeah,
it definitely says at two percent. It's just you know,
it's just you know, our latest reporting is still three percent.
You know, so if we're still at three percent inflation,
that's not our target of two percent. If we have
these four undred and ninety three companies losing profit margin,
that just means they will have to raise prices soon
even if they if they're not now as trying to

(44:48):
raise them right, or continue to hit to eat into
their profit margins which would not be good for the stock.

Speaker 2 (44:54):
Or they pushed them on to the to the uh yeah,
those that are exporting to US. I think there's probably
some combination there.

Speaker 1 (45:01):
What But.

Speaker 2 (45:04):
So are you implying then really so we're gonna wake
up this time next year with more or less confidence
in artificial intelligence infiltrating one year economy? Yeah, because you're
kind of saying, look if if these Max seven are
going to continue to do well. Basically, they're they're they're
the largest, they're the alphabets and Apples and Microsoft's in
the world. You're implying that, you know, we're still relatively

(45:27):
early in this whole technological revolution.

Speaker 3 (45:29):
Yeah, I still think that we could have you know,
five ten percent pullback in the time being, which you know,
I think is inevitable.

Speaker 2 (45:36):
I think we don't like the panic people, and I mean,
but it could be. It could be fifteen, it could
be twenty. And I don't think that's going to change
the direction. But go ahead.

Speaker 3 (45:43):
I don't mean no, you know, but I do think,
you know, maybe maybe maybe five years from now, that
these companies will still be the leaders of you know,
these new technologies that are that are I guess being
in are innovating that sector. I think so like in
like the next you know, three, six, twelve months. Yeah,
I'm more worried about I'm not as worried about, you know,

(46:04):
the AI blowoff top as I am, because you know,
we saw a healthy pullback this past week. I think
we'll continue to see these healthy pullbacks. I think the
market's smarter than it was in the past, too, which
I think decreases the chances of this you know crazy
you know dot com bubble, you know, so I think
we can you know, in a healthy bull market, this
can last longer. With these five, ten fifteen percent pullbacks,

(46:27):
I think they're healthy. But you know, I I think
that the that that lower end consumer four ninety three,
and if we see some deterioration and in those companies,
you know, I think that will spill over into you know,
all companies, you know, so you include the magnifics.

Speaker 2 (46:47):
And we'll push all our views in our quarterly newsletter
that will that will send out to our clients during
the early part of January. I just had a thought,
hm hm, yeah, lost it. So as you know, so
I would think we kind of pursue this type of
direction through the balance of the year. You know, perhaps

(47:10):
we'll get a pullback, and I think, you know, you know,
we try not to you know, sound alarmist, but yeah,
it could be ten fifteen, twenty percent. I think would
still be in the the uh the we'd still be
in the in the in the in the position of
a secular bull market, you're gonna have a cyclical bear
every now and then, you know, I.

Speaker 3 (47:26):
Think I think the biggest threat to the market in
the next three to six months is a.

Speaker 4 (47:34):
Is inflation going back up.

Speaker 3 (47:36):
We're here and not having uh, not having you know,
any any faith in the Bureau labor statistics.

Speaker 2 (47:44):
You know, but I agree with that. But I am
very one hundred percent uncomfortable. And maybe just because of
my age. Maybe it's because of you know, yeah, maybe
because of my age and my experience. I'm good with
interest rates here six percent, four percent on the tenure.
It makes people say, do I need that new car?
Do I need you know, do I want to borrow?
I mean, you know, credit cards, they've always been high,

(48:05):
so I think that's somewhat irrelevant.

Speaker 3 (48:07):
I mean, look at the agg of seven and a
half percent this year. You know, you go into people's portfolios,
if they have a sixty forty allocation, they're up over
ten percent this year, eleven twelve percent, you know, so
you know, that just makes that sixty percent of the
equity side of your portfolio would just be that much easier.

Speaker 2 (48:23):
That gives the average investor a fighting chance to earn
decent returns. Really, when the interest rates were zero, the
average investor doesn't have that opportunity you have to take.
You've got to take on probably too much risk that's beneficial.

Speaker 3 (48:36):
For you, you know, I think as you're talking about too,
you know, the more risks that you take on like that,
the bigger the chances that you have to do the
wrong thing at the wrong.

Speaker 2 (48:44):
Time, right right. So, so anyways, so we're gliding through
November years going by quickly. If you have any questions,
give us a call. We're gonna be talking in the
next couple of weeks about year end tax planning. We
did not get to it today, but we will make
sure we we touch it. But uh, if you want
to get a hold of us five one, eight, two, seven, nine,
ten forty four, check us out on the web on

(49:06):
faganasset dot com, Like us on Facebook. Other than that,
have a great day, kay, take care. Thank you for
joining our podcast radio show.

Speaker 1 (49:16):
Remember the views expressed are not necessarily those of fake
and associates. All content is for educational purposes only and
should not be construed as an endorsement of any third
party or their views, or as the solicitation are offered
as sell securities or provide investment, tax, legal, or other
consulting services. We believe the information presented to be reliable,
but it's not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. All examples

(49:36):
are hypothetical for illustrative purposes only, and are merely arithmetic calculations.
They are not representative of any performance of any type
of investment, security, or strategy offered by the firm. Hypothetical
returns do not reflect actual training and may not be
indicative of the performance of any specific investment. They are
based on assumptions and estimates may not be accurate or

(49:56):
applicable to your individual situation. Always insult with a qualified
financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk,
including the potential of loss of principle. Past performance is
not a guarantee of future results. Additional information, including management
fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part two,
available upon request, or at the SEC's Investment Advisor public

(50:19):
disclosure website TRIPLEW dot advisor info dot SEC dot gov.