Risk Tolerance and Bias

Maleeah and CJ talk about risk tolerance and bias and why 'know thyself' is REALLY important when managing your own investments.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
This is money in Motion with ClassFinancial, a fun and informative show designed
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in mind right now means the phonelines are open for you. Six O
eight three two one thirteen ten.That's six O eight three two one thirteen
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sometimes in the morning we tend tostep out, maybe grab some coffee,
or maybe we hear something we wantto hear again or share it with somebody.

(01:06):
You can definitely check that out onlineClass financial dot com. That's klaas
Financial dot Com. Telephone number sixO eight four four two five six three
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Ininitial gets to know your appointment techClass Financial, it will be complimentary to
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(01:26):
That's three two one thirteen ten.Without any further ado. Joining us
this morning our our retirement planning professionalsCJA, Class Emlia Quavis CJA. How
are you doing today? I'm doinggreat? How are you sewing? Doing
really well? Great to chat withyou and Melia? How are you doing
this beautiful morning? Very good,glad to be here. It's great to
have you both along. And we'vegot an important conversation ahead about understanding risk

(01:48):
tolerance. What that means a littlebit of behavioral behavioral finance. I got
that right that second time. Aroout. I'll LI and CJA about that.
This morning gonna be some great information, a great opportunity for questions at
three two one thirteen ten. That'sthirty two one thirteen ten before we get
rolling the on this week's topic andconversation. One of the great things that
goes on in the program each andevery week it's the Class Quiz Question Week.

(02:09):
This week you'll have a chance towin a twenty five dollars gift card
to Dick Sporting Goods from our friendsat Class Financial. Little tip if you
listen closer to the show. Oftentimesthe question and answer to the Class Quiz
Question League come up during the Show'lltake you about a little later on the
program exactly how you could win that. But for now, one of the
cool things we also do is lookback at last week's Class Quiz Question League

(02:30):
get the question and the answer thereas well. Yeah, so last week
we had a great conversation about theneed potentially for long term care in your
future. So the question revolved aroundthat what percentage of sixty five year olds
today will likely need some long termcare in the future. Is it twenty

(02:50):
five percent or seventy percent? Soa shout out to our winner last week,
Laura from Wauka Shaw. She correctlyanswered seventy percent of those sixty five
year olds today will need some formof long term care in the future.
So thanks for listening, listening carefullyfor today's question, and again, yeah,
we'll have one a little bit lateron in the program. And it's
an interesting conversation. We always haveinteresting conversations on the program, but today

(03:14):
we're gonna be talking about risk toleranceas investors and kind of getting an understanding
of behavioral finance. And I gotto guess it's an important understand not only
for ourselves we move forward, butto also kind of overall with our retirement
planning, isn't it. Yeah,it's important to know about ourselves. And
so risk tolerance is one of themost important considerations when you're building an investment

(03:36):
portfolio or a comprehensive financial plan.Now, risk tolerance refers to your ability
to handle some volatility in portfolio returns. So in this context, it's more
concerned with large negative movements, sincemost people aren't bothered by high positive movements.
But risk tolerance can be influenced bya lot of different factors, including

(03:58):
your specific goal, your age,the degree that you'll rely on your portfolio
for income, your personal comfort,and your absolute net worth. So in
summary, it's your ability and willingnessto take investment risks that you are comfortable
with. That's kind of what whenyou think of risk tolerance again, it's
your ability and willingness to take investmentrisks that you're comfortable with. Typically,

(04:23):
Now, whenever we say the termtypically or rule of thumb, just remember
that no one is actually typical andno one perfectly aligns to a rule of
thumbs. So be cautious with thesestatements. Their general statements, but they
may not apply to you. Sotypically, older investors may have a lower
risk tolerance, usually because they're fastapproaching retirement or perhaps they're already in retirement.

(04:44):
These investors can be hurt greatly bydownward market movements, which makes careful
financial planning essential, and obviously,when markets go down it can be hard
to therefore generate income in retirement.So often as people get older, risk
tolerance reduces, whereas younger investors cantypically handle more risk due to their longer
time horizons. However, here's thekey. What I just mentioned, older

(05:09):
investors less risk tolerant, younger investorsmore risk tolerant. These are not hard
and fast rules, so we wouldlike highly highly suggest that you don't think
of risk only through the lens ofage, because if you do that,
you may come to find out thateven though say you're a young investor,
you may sell everything out at thewrong time, because when the market goes

(05:31):
down, that's when you find outhow much risk you're willing to take on.
Right you're not able to sleep atnight Suddenly you go, Wow,
I somebody told me I'm young andI should be aggressive, but I'm not
and I can't handle it. Soa long story short, just recognize it's
not only age that impacts your risktolerance. It should be other factors.
Full lines are open right now atsix to eight three two one thirteen ten.

(05:53):
That's three two one thirteen ten.Gets you in there with CJ Class,
EMILEA. Quavis, I'll retirement plantprofessionals from Clause Financial, the website
claud financial dot com. That's KlaasFinancial dot com. And the telephon number
for the office here in Madison.Six to eight four four two five,
six three seven. That's four fourtwo fifty six thirty seven. So see
jets break down some of those differenttypes of risk tolerances out there. Yeah,

(06:15):
so as you're working towards kind offiguring out your own risk tolerance.
It's good to understand some basic labelsof what type of investing strategy you might
want to kind of move towards.So first kind of label would be conservative
investors. So typically when you seethis, this would be people with a
lower than average tolerance for investment risk. Typically these investors will opt for an
allocation with higher shares of cash ormoney market CDs, fixed income, things

(06:40):
like that. A moderate investor theseare people with the middle of the road
view of investment risk. These investorsmight opt for you even or nearly even
shares of riskier growth focused investments versussafer So for an example of this,
someone with a moderate risk tolerance mighthave an asset allocation of fifty to six
percent in common stocks and the otherthirty to forty percent in bonds and money

(07:03):
markets. And then finally, ifyou think of yourself as an as an
aggressive investor, these are people whoare usually willing or able to tolerate higher
levels of risk. And when wesay risk, think of it as deviation
from expected outcome. Now, someof you are going, oh, that
sounds so financial volatility from the mean, there's different ways to think about this.

(07:26):
But if I'm expecting to get eightpercent a year, a risk tolerant
person would be okay with being twentypercent up or down from there, right,
So that's maybe in more Layman's term, what do we mean by risk
means the variation from your expected outcomeon a year by year basis. So
usually these investors have a higher concentration. These being aggressive have a higher concentration

(07:47):
of stocks, And in some circumstances, aggressive investors go beyond just having a
higher concentration in stocks, they'll actuallyget more speculative. So speculative meaning like
this is where like bitcoin would comeinto play, or holding one particular stock.
Now, if you've listened to ourshow long enough, we do not

(08:09):
love speculation. That term like speculationand class financials just do not go in
the same sentence. So we willwork with people who are aggressive investors,
but only through the lens of afully diversified portfolio, because we don't want
to be taking on risks that don'tcompensate you over the long run. So
some things you may want to askyourself as you start to think am I

(08:31):
conservative, moderate, or aggressive?Here's some questions. Number one, what
is your investment time horizon? Numbertwo? What are your short and long
term investment goals? Number three?What is your overall attitude towards the prospect
of losing money? Number four?Will you rely on your investments to cover
your monthly income or will you havemultiple streams of income so that if your

(08:52):
investments go down, you're not dependentupon that for income. And finally,
if your portfolio were to drop invalue by ten percent or twenty percent,
would you feel the need to suddenlysell everything or are you okay with that
deviation from the expected outcome. Somost investors simply don't like watching their portfolios

(09:13):
values decline, and they only findout about their risk tolerance once they first
get tested by a downtrend in themarket. So we spend a lot of
time, as you can imagine,as we onboard new clients, really digging
into their history of investing, theirage, their need for income, so
kind of some quantitative and qualitative factorsto figure out what is the right balance

(09:37):
for them. Because we have thesaying in our firm, and I'm going
to botch it a little bit,but one of our advisors will say,
one hundred percent of an okay strategyis better than zero percent of a great
strategy. So let me repeat that, one hundred percent of an okay strategy
or asset allocation is better than zeropercent of a great asset allocation or strategy.

(10:00):
So the point being in that ifwe say, oh, you're young,
you can tolerate a lot of risk, and then you don't stick to
that, we've done you harm.Right, So even though we believe you
can take on risk, if youcan't tolerate it and you suddenly bail at
the wrong time, you know thatadvice was the wrong advice. So just
recognize it's not about kind of optimizingwhat other people say you should do.

(10:22):
It's about optimizing what you can actuallytolerate. Very individual here as we talk
this week with CJ Class and MaliaQuavis, our retirement planning professionals from Class
Financial. Of course, if you'vegot a question for CGEN Malia, it
is a prime opportunity to get onthe air right now at six eight three
two one thirteen ten. That's threetwo one thirteen ten gets you on the
air with Malia and CJ. Don'tforget. You can learn more about Class

(10:45):
Financial on their website. Class financialdot com. That's Klaas Financial dot com.
Great website to learn more about ClassFinancial or separat divisions. Also,
get signed up for that weekly marketPulse newsletter and the telephone for Class Financial's
office six eight four four two fivesix three seven. Don't forget no charge
for the initial get to know yourappointment tech Class Financially. It will be

(11:05):
complimentary to you again their number sixO eight four four two five six three
seven. And to get on theair this morning, give us a call
six O eight three two one thirteenten. That's three two one thirteen ten.
Be talking with Malia about now thatwe've kind of got the groundwork laid
for risk tolerance, what about managingyour own retirement or working with a professional
d I a Y. Where doyou fit in kind of that spectrum.

(11:26):
We'll get the details from Malia andtake your call next as Money in Motion
with Class Financial continues right here onthirteen ten WIBA. This is Money in
Motion with Class Financial, a funand informative show designed to help you get
answers to all your retirement questions inone place, and the full lines are

(11:50):
open for you right now at sixO eight three two one thirteen ten.
That's three two one thirteen ten.Leve to get you on the air with
c J Class and Malia Quavis.They are our retirement planning professionals from Class
Financial. Love to get your callat six O three two one thirteen ten.
That's three two one thirteen ten.Don't forget. You can learn more
about Class Financial on their website clausefinancial dot com. That's Klaas Financial dot

(12:11):
com. And the telephone number forthe office right here in Madison six O
eight four four two five six threeseven. No charge for that initial get
to know your appointment at Class Financial. It will be complementary to you again
their number six O eight four fourtwo five six three seven. Talking this
week about risk tolerances and understanding yourown personal your own personal risk tolerance and
what all goes into kind of makingthat determination or that understanding. And I

(12:35):
guess once you've kind of got thatunderstanding of your own risk tolerance, should
we simply manage your own retirement planningor consider being a DIY invest Emilia.
What's kind of the thinking there.It's it's a really good question. And
I think you know, first ofall, understanding you know yourself, which
is again the risk tolerance and thensecondly your own behavior. That's where that

(12:58):
behavioral finance sword came in. It'svery very important for you to determine the
best way to plan and manage yourown retirement, so we would advocate you
know it is very possible to bea do it yourself investor, to manage
your own portfolio, your own financialaffairs on your own without the help of
a financial advisor. Many people areable to do this quite well, and

(13:20):
it's certainly feasible when you're young andyour portfolios relatively small, and we've really
never had more tools to research andbuild out your own financial destiny than we
do today. So so for manyfolks, this is something they really enjoy
doing and we can see them benefitby doing that. But we do have

(13:41):
to look at why would you nothave an advisor that overwhelming items here?
So if you view managing your wealthas an engaging outlet, like it just
brings you excitement, then this isduring the good and the bad, and
it's something you want to pursue,we suggest you go for it. We
wish you great success. But theflip side is not everyone has this genuine

(14:05):
interest in doing it now when themarket is going up, I can guarantee
you everybody has this interest. Butwe say genuine because when we look at
options for doing it yourself, well, it looks appealing. You have to
determine for yourself does it bring youthis you know, warm and fuzzy feeling
every day. And I think oftentimespeople who are admittedly very successful in their

(14:26):
own careers, you know, whetherit be a plumber, an engineer,
a lawyer, or a doctor acrossthe board, if they've been successful,
there many times they feel like theycan just translate that success over to the
financial world. Some can and somesome can'ts and so we often see people
kind of this financial fog. Soyou know, you have to understand again

(14:48):
your own behaviors in your own We'lltalk about some biases a little bit,
but over confidence, sometimes sometimes seekinga second opinion. Now people are surprised,
they think that, you know,they know what they're doing, and
if they ask for a second opinion, it doesn't align with what they think.

(15:09):
Are they going to act on thator not? So you have to
ask yourself. Dealing with portfolio design, distribution of income, doing some tax
and estate planning, and looking atthe whole picture at the same time,
is that something you want to delveinto again, It can be done,
and we've seen it done well.But you just really have to know yourself,
know what kind of investor you are, and if it makes sense to

(15:33):
potentially work with an advisor in thefuture. You can ask some of these
questions to yourself. Which one ofthese people are you? How do you
like to spend your time, areyou committed to managing your wealth at every
stage of life? And can youaccept and act on device on advice?
And that is key. So youknow, if I have a relative who

(15:54):
gives me advice, let's just startthere. Am I listening? Am I
really listening? Am I really goingto act on it? If it's a
professional I meet with a lawyer,he gives me some suggestions, he gives
me some activity to do. AmI going to actually complete it? Or
am I going to be I knowwhat I'm doing, I'm going to do
it myself. And that's the typeof person I am. So you really

(16:14):
have to understand yourself and you alsohave to look at the time involved.
You know, time is the mostprecious commodity we have, and as we
all get older, we recognize timeis everything. We want to be able
to spend it doing what we wantto and we want to spend it with
those that we care for the most. So you have to understand that this

(16:36):
requires time and if that's where youwant to spend your time in retirement,
then you should do it. Ifnot, you should look at perhaps vetting
advisors. So we want you toask the right questions when you do a
potential financial advisor. If you decidenot to do it yourself, you want
to ask what fees do you charge? What experience do you have working with

(16:56):
clients in a similar boat to mind, how often when we meet to review
our progress and goals. And again, while we see the benefit by working
with clients and vice versa, wealso know many people do not use an
advisor. So Northwestern Mutual back intwenty twenty two, they did a Planning
in Progress study and they find thatonly thirty five percent of Americans actually use

(17:19):
a financial advisor. So we wouldsay, if you're amongst the sixty five
percent who don't use an advisor,it may be time to get one if
you understand the purpose, especially ifmoney in retirement related concerns keep you up
at night. So that's the keything there. Can you sleep? Are
you comfortable with all of the otherplanning besides just managing investments, and make

(17:42):
sure that you're you're able to sleepat night. If not, perhaps reach
out to an advisor who might beable to put you on the right path
who doesn't need better sleep. Ithink we can all use that as we're
talking this morning with our retirement planningprofessionals, Mali Aquamans and CJ. Claus
love to hear for this party.If you've got questions, We've got time
for you. Love to get youon the air with CJ and Malia.

(18:03):
Telephone number six O eight three twoone thirteen ten. That's six O eight
three two one thirteen ten. Ofcourse they come to us from Class Financial,
the website class financial dot com.That's klaas Financial dot com. The
telephon number six O eight four fourtwo five six three seven. No charge
for the initial gets no you appointmenttech Class Financial. It will be complimentary
to you again. They're telephone numbersix O eight four four two five six

(18:25):
three seven. We're gonna get alittle bit deeper into this. We're gonna
talk about about some of the thingsto look at when you're thinking about your
own financial picture. We'll get thedetails on that and we'll do the class
quiz question leak as well as takeyour call next as Money in Motion with
Class Financial continues right here on thirteenten WIBA. This is Money in Motion

(18:48):
with Class Financial, a fun andinformative show designed to help you get answers
to all your retirement questions in oneplace, talking with our retirement binding professionals
from Class Financial, CJ, Classand Melia quaevis the website Class financial dot
com. That's Klaas financial dot com. Get to know Claus Financial, get
to know the team at Class Financial. Also, of course, sign up
for the weekly Market Paulse newsletter.So goroll down towards the bottom. You'll

(19:12):
see a little envelope it says staycurrent. Right there, you can subscribe
to the weekly Market Paulse newsletter andeach week you'll get a nice email with
a snapshot of things going on inthe markets. Also a linked to the
most recent podcast that available to youat class financial dot com. Speaking of
Claus Financial dot com the podcast youlisten back there. You can also subscribe
right online Telephonober for Class Financial fourfour six eight four four two five six

(19:33):
three seven at six o eight fourfour two fifty six thirty seven. No
chart for financial gets no appointment atclass financial. It is complimentary to you
talking this week about risk tolerance andunderstanding behavioral finance and what should we kind
of understand about those things when we'relooking at our own financial picture. CJ.
Yeah, So this show is alittle bit different than our average show

(19:55):
today for anybody who's listened for awhile, and that we're talking about some
kind of self reflection, aspects offinancial planning, acid allocation, risk tolerance,
things like that. And so,you know, I began with talking
about understanding your own risk tolerance.Malia talked about do you hire somebody to

(20:15):
do this do you do it onyour own? And we've seen both that
can be successful. But what we'regoing to end with is some realities around
behavioral trends that we see in financethat I think I really want to encourage
you all to listen to, becauseas I've gotten deeper and deeper into this

(20:36):
career and even into self reflection aroundmy own you know, portfolio management or
financial planning topics, I see alot of risks in my own behavior risk
that could hurt me. Okay,so stick with me here. Traditional economic
theory suggests that individuals are well informedand consistent in their decision making, hence

(20:59):
they would consider them rational. Nowwe don't agree with that fully, but
we agree with the conclusion of that. So let me explain what I mean.
So the idea being that investors arerational. If investments are going to
lose, lose, lose forever,they're going to eventually jump ship. And
then if something's going to gain,they're going to jump on that ship.
And so there's a rational aspect towhat investors are doing. But even if

(21:22):
they're not perfectly rational, they're veryinconsistent. And therefore, whether they're rational
or inconsistent, the question becomes,can I like trade on that information,
whether it be taking advantage of behavioralaspects of other people or even just sticking
to consistent outcomes myself. So we'regoing to talk about some risks that come

(21:44):
up in personal financial planning or personaldecision making around investments. So, and
these risks are called biases. Let'stalk about a few of these. There's
this risk called the overconfidence bias.This also often gets referred to it's not
the same thing, but it canbe called a hindsight bias. So this
is an emotional bias. In general, humans tend to view the world positively.

(22:08):
Outside of finance, studies, amongstdrivers report themselves to be safer than
the majority of other drivers. Solet that sink in. Outside of finance
studies amongst drivers, like vehicle driversreport themselves to be safer than the majority
of other drivers. Many studies amongstprofessionals find themselves to have unrealistic positive self

(22:30):
evaluations and overestimations of their own contributionsto past positive outcome. So I think
an employer says, hey, we'vebeen really successful. Let's ask all our
people how much it was because ofthem, right? And you know,
it turns out there like ninety fivepercent off. Everybody says that it's because
you had me on the team,right, And so there's the reality.

(22:52):
And by the way, that thatcan't just that can't be true that it's
because of ninety five percent. There'sprobably one or two people that had something
that impacted the organization. Now wecould go on for example after example after
example, but there's this overconfidence biasthat also then will leak into what we
call hindsight bias. So hindsight biaseswhen somebody looks back and they say,

(23:15):
oh, now I see what happenedin the stock market. And therefore,
given that I can look backwards andsee what happened, I won't make that
mistake again. And so they constantly, because of the advantage of hindsight,
they constantly believe they're learning and won'tdo it again. The problem is that
the markets are somewhat random. Somepatterns they will repeat. Other patterns the

(23:38):
market will not repeat again. Anotherbias, or another kind of risk to
you is what we call a lossaversion risk. So we previously discuss that
understanding your own risk tolerance is important, but also understanding how that risk tolerance
can negatively impact you for long termoutcomes. Let me give you an example.

(24:00):
Hey, I understand that I needmy portfolio to grow to offset the
income, but I am so lossa verse that I'm just going to literally
print off money, stick it undermy mattress and not even trust banks or
the government or anybody, right,and then your house burns down and you
go, oh, yeah, whathappened. So fear of loss or loss

(24:21):
of version, if not controlled,can actually lead people to places where they
are no longer functioning in society.They're no longer engaging society, and therefore
they start losing to inflation, andtheir portfolios cannot keep up and they have
the risk of running out of money. Another issue would be what we call
a framing bias. Instead of relyingon facts and figures, individuals sometimes get

(24:45):
persuaded by the framing of sentences.As a matter of fact, Congress is
fantastic at framing topics. Let megive you an example of this, the
Affordable Care Act. Right. That'sand by the way, I'm not knocking
the Affordable Care Act. So anybodywho thinks I'm trying to make a point
about the Affordable Care Act, you'rewrong. I'm not. But the Affordable

(25:08):
Care Act was through the Obama administrationtrying to, you know, make sure
that everybody has health insurance when theydon't have an employer based plan. And
so instead of calling it the HealthInsurance Plan for Everybody, or the getting
all Americans health insurance, they calledit the Affordable Care Act. For anybody
who actually is on the Affordable CareAct, if your income is high enough,

(25:30):
it is everything but affordable. Right. But the framing of that topic
evokes a positive emotion. Right,And again, this is not a knock
on the Affordable Care Act. I'mnot making a judgment about whether or not
it's it's a good or bad pieceof legislation and how it works. It's
rather just isn't it fascinating? HowCongress has learned that framing is critical?

(25:52):
So often we find investors will getlured into investments by framing. An example
would be invest in this real estateproject. It gets a twelve percent cash
on cash return and with little tono risk. Oh my gosh, that
sounds amazing, Like why would Ido that when the stock market? Or
why don't I do that when thestock markets so volatile? So be cautious
of framing biases. And then thefinal bias for the final risk I'll mention

(26:15):
is anchoring. So investors tend tohold on to a belief and then apply
that belief as a kind of subjectreference point from making future judgments without ever
reevaluating their anchor. People often basetheir decisions on the first source of information
to which they're exposed and have difficultyadjusting their views to new information. Anchoring

(26:41):
bias is again one of those hugerisks that we see in investing where somebody
says, hey, when I grewup, the biggest companies were always you
know, making something like raw materials. They were making vehicles, or they
were they were making cam emeras,they were making something. And so therefore

(27:03):
I have learned that I should alwaysinvest my money in companies that make something
that that I can that's really tangible, a big produced item. Well,
listen, if that has been yourapproach in the last ten years, you've
gotten slaughtered, I mean completely slaughtered, because the biggest, you know,
the biggest stock returns have actually comefrom the fangs Facebook, Amazon, Netflix,
and Google. You can't go youknow, they're not making cars.

(27:26):
So be cautious of these anchoring beliefsystems that you can't be persuaded anywhere else.
So anyway, I'm rambling the pointof this being there are risks when
you take on investing in your ownkind of out of your own belief system,
because you can find that, uh, these risks kind of pop up
and end up hurting you in portfoliomanagement. So if you're going to do
it on your own, try tolearn these risks and avoid them. Really

(27:48):
fascinating stuff this week and a lotof great information. If you missed any
part of the program, Door Freakcan always listen back at class Financial dot
com. You can also share thepodcast a class Financial dot com. That's
kaas financial dot com. The telephonenumber six O eight four four two five
six three seven. No charge forthat initial gets to no you appointment at
Class Financial. It will be complimentaryto you again. They're telephone number six

(28:11):
O eight four four two five sixthree seven. Speaking of the telephone number,
time now for the class quiz questionLeak. You want to hold on
to that number because in just amoment I'll ask you the class quiz question
the leakue. You will then havethirty minutes from the end of today's program
to call the Class Financial office righthere in Madison at six O eight four
four two five six three seven.If you are the first caller with correct
answer, you will win this week'sprize, which is a twenty five dollars

(28:32):
gift card to Dick's Sporting Goods.This week's class quiz question the week is
this true or false? Your risktolerance refers to your ability and willingness to
take investment risks that you are comfortablewith true or false. Telephone number six
O eight four four two five sixthree seven, first caller with correctdancwer Win
the twenty five dollars gift card toDick Sporting Goods. Again, don't forget.

(28:56):
That's Class Financial's office right here inMadison as well. No charge forial
gets no appoyment at Class Financial.It is complimentary. And the telephone number
six to eight four four two fivesix three seven C Jamilie. It's always
fascinating stuff. Great chat with you. We enjoy this beautiful day. Thanks.
News is next right here at thirteenten WIBA. This is Money in

(29:19):
Motion with Class Financial Asset Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor registered with the
SEC. The content of this showis for informational purposes only and should not
be considered individual investment advice. ClassFinancial does not offer tax or legal advice.
Any opinion offered during the course ofthis show is the opinion of that

(29:41):
particular investment advisor representative, and notnecessarily the opinion of Class Financial