4 Things to Watch Ahead of the Presidential Election

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
This is straight talk from the Housewith certified financial planner Tracy Anton here on
thirteen ten WIBA. Of course,Tracy comes to us from Tanton Investment House,
a fee only fiduciary with offices rightin Middleton. The website Tanton Investment
House dot com. That's t AN T O N investment House dot com.
Great website and resource to learn moreabout Tracy and the team. Also

(00:22):
a chance there at the schedule appointmentat a time of a day that's convenient
to you. Again, the websiteTanton Investment House dot com. Telephone number
six oh eight five zero one,fifteen forty nine. That's for the office
right in Middleton, six oh eightfive zero one, fifteen forty nine.
And joining us this morning is certifiedfinancial planner Tracy Andton. Tracy, how
you doing on this beautiful spring morning. I'm doing great, Sean, and

(00:43):
you I'm doing really, really well. What are we talking about this week?
Well, this week we're recapping someof the things that Capitol Group put
out. They said four things towatch ahead of a presidential election? And
I thought, do I really wantto talk politics? But well why not?
What the heck? And so apparentlyit's a massive year for elections globally,

(01:06):
there's seventy six countries gearing up forpolitical showdowns in twenty twenty four,
so basically more than half of theworld's population could vote in twenty twenty four.
And I thought, well, that'seven interesting, just that tidbit there.
So Taiwan recently voted in a proindependence leader, which could stir tensions
with China. And then some electionshave already happened, like Russia where Putin

(01:30):
is expected to stay. But thebig one everyone's of course waiting for is
the US election on November fifth,and that's when the president, vice president,
thirty four Senate seats, and allfour hundred and thirty five House of
Representative spots are upper grabs. Plusthere are loads of state and local races
and important ballot measures to decide upontoo, So lots happening, you know,

(01:53):
just worldwide. So I thought i'dbring that, bring it up,
let's talk about it. That isa that's a substanti number of changes and
things on the horizon really interesting.As we talked with certified financial planner Tracy
Anton right here on thirteen ten,Wuiba, So what makes this year's election
unique or sets it apart from someof the others. Well, much like

(02:15):
the nineteen ninety two campaign, economicconcerns will be at the front and center
of the twenty twenty four election,you know, questions like are we heading
toward a recession? When will pricesstabilize with the Federal Reserve lower interest rates?
You know, and the big questionof course is how did your family
finances fare during the pandemic and sincethen? So there are many questions being

(02:38):
asked ahead of this election, andagain for President Joe Biden, who's expected
to go up against former President DonaldTrump. The latest economic signs are positive.
The US economy apparently grew by threepoint one percent over the past year,
beating predictions, and inflation they said, dropped from nine point one percent
in the summer of twenty twenty twoto three point five or in December.

(03:00):
So additionally, US docs have beenhitting you know, new record highs this
year. So it's looking kind ofgood for Joe Biden in that In that
respect, interesting, as we talkedthis morning with sort of fied financial planner
Tracy Anton here on thirteen ten WIBA, just a reminder about the website.
I definitely urge you to check itout. Tanton investment House dot com great

(03:23):
place to learn more about Tracy andthe team. Also prime opportunity for looking
for money management. For portfolio managementto schedule and appointment right at the website
Tanton investment House dot com or pickup a phone call the office right in
Middleton. Sixtoh eight five zero one, fifteen forty nine. That's six eight
five zero one fifteen forty nine.So how and how I guess has the
economy and in the current economic conditionsor at the time of the election,

(03:46):
how have they historically impacted election results? Tracy, Yeah, it's kind of
a big thing, right, youknow, how how is the economy?
It's mainly that's what's going to determinethe president, is what they're saying.
So opposition candidates against Biden are likelyto highlight the increasing prices at the grocery
store, the unaffordable housing market,and the rapidly growing national debt. And

(04:09):
again, although the fear of anupcoming recession seems to have faded, there
are still numerous economic signs suggesting itspossibility. So, whether it's fair or
not, US presidents often win orlose elections based on how people perceive the
economy. For instance, Herbert Hooverwas ousted in nineteen thirty two due to

(04:29):
the Great Depression, and Jimmy Carterlost in nineteen eighty amidst the economic struggles
of the late nineteen seventies. Generally, issues that affect everyday life, and
as people often say around the kitchentable, things that affect us tend to
shape election results, and this yearis likely to be no exception. It's
interesting. I remember James Carvill inthe ninety two I say that the cajunsaying

(04:53):
it's pardon my language, this ishis words, but he says, it's
the economy stupid, which is exactlyThat's what in fact in this article,
that's what it says, It's theeconomy stupid. And I mean it wasn't
he married to the opposite party?Yes she was. Yes, she worked
for George H. W. Bushand he worked for Bill Clinton, and

(05:13):
that was that was just a fascinatingdynamic in and of itself. Yeah,
yeah, what I mean that sokind as we look to this election year,
and you know, we mentioned ofcourse the big presidential election other things.
Can we expect to see a closeelection this year, whether it's the
White House or the House Representative andso on. I think so in the

(05:35):
race of control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of
Representatives, it all comes down toa few battleground states which are expected to
have a very tight final count.So victors may emerge with slim margins,
and whether it's a Democrat or Republicans, there will likely be acquisition, acquisitions
of unfair tactics, demands for recounts, and legal challenges. So some race

(05:58):
outcomes, including presidency, might remainuncertain for days after the election. So
the reality is that the nation isdeeply divided, as we all know,
right and as reflected in current compositionof Congress. So Republicans hold a slight
three seat majority in the House,while Democrats and the Independents control the Senate
by just one vote. So inthe previous presidential election, this I didn't

(06:24):
quite remember. If just forty fivethousand votes in three states had gone differently,
Trump would be the incumbent president today. So you're talking a very small
margin here in Wisconsin was one ofthose states. So yeah, and as
we're seeing between President Biden President Trumpboth paying a few visits as long as

(06:45):
well as as well as Vice PresidentKamala Harris a lot of visits to Wisconsin
because of the importance of our statewhen it comes to the election. So
you have important things. If you'vebeen looking for money management portfolio management,
Tracy would love to get SnO you, Herner team would love to talk with
you. All you got to dois head on over to the website Tanton
investment House dot com. That's tA, n TN investment house dot com.

(07:08):
Great website and resource. And thetelephone number for the office in Middleton
six oh eight five zero one,fifteen forty nine. That's six soh eight
five zero one fifteen forty nine.Let's look at the political landscape kind of
the map, and what are thebattleground states going to be this time around?
Tracy, Well, the battleground statesfor the up upcoming election will sound
familiar because they are really the sameas they were in twenty twenty. The

(07:30):
key states to keep an eye onin November would be Arizona, Georgia,
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Like you mentioned, these are the swing
states that could swing either way.Additionally, North Carolina and Nevada have also
had very close races in recent years, so they're often on the watch list
too, And once again, justa handful of states and a small number

(07:51):
of voters will be crucial to determinethe outcome. Less than one hundred thousand
people, which is roughly the samenumber who at end of the NFL playoff
games in person earlier this month,will decide who the next president of the
United States will be. Oh man, that's that is uh, you think
about too. One hundred thousands believable, right, what is camp Randall holds?

(08:13):
What eighty thousand, So we're talkingabout close to the size of Camp
Randle. That many people will havean impact on the That is wow.
That's when you put it that way, it's kind of I wish it wasn't
that way. No, I wishit wasn't. Yeah, I think I
think you're right on about that.And it's uh, it's one of those
areas where you go wow, andit's you know, you see all the
strategic maps and kind of how thatstuff plays out. It is just fascinating

(08:37):
stuff to talk this morning with certifiedfinancial plan of Tracy Anton right here on
thirteen to ten WIB A telephone numberfor the office in Middleton six so eight
five zero one fifteen forty nine.Its schedule apployment over the phone. But
even easier if you head on overto Tanton Investment House dot com. A
little widget if you scroll down alittle bit pops up. It's Tracy's smiling
face and it says, let's talk. From there, you can actually schedule

(08:58):
appointment at a time in a daythat's convenient to you. Right on the
website. That's Tanton Investment House dotcom. That's t A N t O
N investment House dot com. Looksinto your conversation with certified financial Planner Tracy
Anton. We'll talk about the Tword text policy. I got some details
on that and some other things thatwe plan on seeing from this election.
We'll get the details from Tracy.We'll do that next as Straight Talk from

(09:20):
the House continues right here on thirteenten do w U I B A.
This is straight Talk from the Housewith certified financial Planner Tracyanton here on thirteen
ten WI B A. Don't forgetif you missed part today's programmer you want
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(09:43):
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t O N Investment House dot comtelephe number for the office right in Middleton.
Six oh eight five zero one fifteenforty nine. That's six soh eight
five zero one fifteen. Talking aboutfour things to be watching ahead of the
presidential election, and some really greatstuff in that first segment, and just

(10:07):
leaving that last segment, Tracy,there's obviously more here. What else will
we see from this upcoming election?Yeah, I think this is one of
the biggest takeaways from today's show isthat the tax policy will have the biggest
long term impact. So the majortax cuts introduced during the Trump administration are
set to be reconsidered in twenty twentyfive, and their fate hinges largely on

(10:31):
the outcome of the twenty twenty fourelection and who gains control of the White
House and Congress. So, theTax Cuts and Jobs Act of twenty seventeen
brought significant changes to the federal taxsystem, so resulting in generally lower taxes
for individuals and businesses. However,it's estimated to decrease the federal revenue by
almost one point five trillion over adecade, so supporters argue it stimulates the

(10:56):
economy, while critics contend it exactsperates the national debt. So if re
elected, a second Trump administration supportedby a Republican controlled Congress would likely extend
the key provisions of the Act.Conversely, a Biden administration would probably seek
alternatives, possibly including tax increases forbusinesses and higher income individuals, and they

(11:22):
give reassurances supposedly not to raise taxesfor those earning less than four hundred thousand
annually, So that's an interesting pointthere, I think. So. Furthermore,
the US debt limit will be revisitedin the spring of twenty twenty five,
so adding pressure on tax and spendingdecisions. So the national debt reached

(11:43):
a record of thirty four trillion bythe end of twenty twenty three. Given
the current larger annual deficit and nationaldebt compared to twenty sixteen, addressing these
challenges won't be easy by either party. Right, So changes to tax rates
and retirement savings programs are often underconsideration regardless of who's in power. So
when you're seeking when seeking revenue,the retirement industry tends to draw attention.

(12:07):
So it's it's a it's a pointof interest as candidates unveil who, you
know, their economic plans. Soit's it's a it's a big year,
right, It's a big year tofind out, like how will the taxes
change? You mentioned some of thoseyou know, you mentioned things like the
debt and other things, and startlooking around for sources of revenue. Got
to be paying it well, Andthey did that. I mean just you

(12:28):
know recently when that Secure Act changedagain and they updated it. You know,
they basically went after beneficiary accounts andthey said, okay, you can't
you know, stretch out your beneficiary. I ray for your life expectancy now.
So if somebody inherited at age thirty, you know, they can't do
it for their lifetime. It's tenyears now. So I mean they find

(12:50):
ways, right, their government,they find ways to like, you know,
where where can we tax where peoplewon't be so mad? You know,
and we've have been mad about that. I think and that's and it
also highlights the importance as we talkevery week with certified financial planner Tracy Andton.
Of course, Tracy keeps us upto date on things going on in
these areas, and it's important ifyou miss any part of the program always

(13:13):
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share the podcast with your friends andfamily as well. And if you are
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(13:37):
N t O N investment House dotcom or call the office six oh eight
five zero one, fifteen forty nine. That's six eight five zero one,
fifteen forty nine. So, howshould this presidential election or how should this
election change things then for investors,Tracy, you know it really shouldn't,
So politics should not change your investmentplans. Alongside alongside economic concerns, many

(14:00):
other topics will emerge for discussion asthe campaign season progresses. Obviously, they'll
talk about immigration abortion, climate change, and global trade are expected to be
issues. So this flurry of topicscould lead to market fluctuations. That's that's
really what we're all expecting, right, and especially as we draw more and
more closer to the November fifth election, So expect volatility. Right. Markets

(14:24):
generally dislike uncertainty, and this electionis poised to bring plenty of it.
So I would say that, butyou know, it's again essential to remember
one key point. Historically, ifyou go back sean to the nineteen thirties,
US stocks have consistently ended a presidentialterm higher than what they started,

(14:45):
regardless of the party affiliation. Soin other words, stocks have moved higher
no matter which party won the WhiteHouse. And I think that's just really
important. You know, people wantto sometimes want to time the market,
want to get in and get outand go, well, I'm going to
sit this one out because I justdon't know who's going to win, and
if so and so wins, thatmeans this, and if so and so

(15:07):
wins, that means that. Firstof all, you never know what that
really means. And second of all, you know, according to this it
would be a mistake. So don'tlet politics influence your investment decisions. If
you were surprised, for example,by Trump's win in twenty sixteen, and
you pulled out of the market,you missed out on four years of solid
returns. Similarly, if Obama's electionin two thousand and nine during the financial

(15:31):
crisis made you nervous and you exitedthe market, then you missed the opportunity
to benefit from one of the strongestbull markets in US history. So you
know, again, stay the courseyou with your selected investments. I would
I just wouldn't get in and outof the market. I would love to
see if if you just had somebodyhad a graph of the stock market over

(15:54):
the last forty years and with nodates and nothing on that have give somebody
pen and have them mark where theythink the next president came into power.
And I think people will be veryvery much off depending on their political ideology.
And as you point out, youknow there's been some both under Republicans
and both under and Democrats as well, have been some pretty substantial opportunities out

(16:18):
there. When it came to uh, I was just coming I was just
coming up with, you know,pin the tail on the donkey, right,
But I mean pin the tail ofthe bull. You know, it's
the same idea, right, whathappened here, what happened there? Yeah,
it's the long term trend of thestocks. That's what you have to
keep your eye on. And alsojust realize that you know, nobody neither
presidents, they're not they're not asmuch in control as you think. I

(16:41):
think it's it's simply yeah, thatis important thing to point out as well
as we talk with certified financial plannerTracy Anton here on thirteen ten wib A.
Of course, Tracy comes to usfrom t Anton Investment House. It's
a fee only fiduciary offices right inMiddleton. The website t Anton investment House
dot com. That's e A NT O N investment House dot com.

(17:03):
Telephon number six oh eight five zeroone, fifteen forty nine. That's six
soh eight five zero one, fifteenforty nine. As we wrap up this
week, Tracy, something that Ithink maybe some folks are saying is kind
of what is the overall importance toall of this? Well, I think
again, investors worry too much aboutwhich party will win the election. And
again it's totally fine to root foryour favorite candidate, you know, but

(17:26):
investors can get in trouble, Ithink when they put too much emphasis on
who wins elections. And that's againbecause historically election outcomes haven't really had a
big impact on long term investment gains. According to the economist Darryl Spence from
the Capitol Group, he says presidentsoften get too much credit or blame for

(17:48):
how the economy and financial markets doare doing. So, he said,
the truth is there are lots ofother factors that affect economic growth and market
returns, and presidents don't have asmuch control over them as we might think.
He says, again, what reallymatters for investors is sticking with investments
over time. He said, forexample, for instance, let's say you
had one thousand dollars. You investedone thousand dollars in Sep. Five hundred

(18:12):
when Franklin Dela Roosevelt was president.Now that's a long way ago. A
thousand bucks was a lot of money, but it would have been worth twenty
two million dollars today. So Imean that's a big number, right,
And that's after going through eight Democraticand seven Republican presidents. So if you
had pulled out of the market becauseyou didn't like a certain party or candidate

(18:34):
you couldn't have seriously, you know, you could seriously hurt your long term
return. So again, the marketcan go up under any either president,
either either Democrat or Republican. Andelections, they do have clear winners and
losers, but the real winners arethe investors who didn't let election results sway
their decisions and they stayed invested inthe long run and came out on top.

(18:56):
And I just think, what agreat article I Capital a group that
you know they're pointing out, juststay, don't try to time the market,
don't get too nervous, expect volatility, but stay with a prudent plan
because it's you know, the economyis. It's more than just who's going
to be president. And I couldn'tagree more. I wish I had a

(19:21):
thousand dollars and I wish I werealive during FDR to well my parents were,
you know, I'm thinking, well, what were they doing back then?
I was thinking they didn't have athousand dollars? It is it is
they probably didn't invest either, youknow, I mean, great depression that
was real. Okay, It isan important reminder though, that today is
the day I mean, as wekind of look forward and look back,

(19:42):
it's today's a great day to startthat conversation again if you've been looking for
money management or portfolio management. Again, who knows what the future holds.
But as we see all these allthese great optimism, you look at the
history as well, and you're saying, it's a great time to start that
conversation. And Tracy and her teamat ti Anton Investment House, they'd love
to talk with you if you headon over to the website Tanton Investment House

(20:03):
dot com. Actually schedule appointment rightfrom the website at a time and a
date that's convenient to you. That'sTanton investment House dot com spelled t A
N t O N investment House dotcom. Have the telephone number six oh
eight five zero one, fifteen fortynine. That's six oh eight five zero
one, fifteen forty nine. Tracy, it's always enlightening chatting with you.
You enjoy this beautiful day, youtoo, Thanks Sean,