Key Investing Themes in 2025

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is straight talk from the House with certified financial
planner Tracy Anton right here on thirteen NWIVA. Of course,
Tracy comes to us from Tanton Investment House, a fee
only fiduciary. Their website Tantoninvestment House dot com. That's t
A N T O N investment House dot com. Telephon
umber six oh eight five zero one fifteen fourty nine.
That's six so eight five zero one fifteen four to nine.

(00:22):
And joining us this morning is certified financial planner Tracy Anton. Tracy,
how you doing this week?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
I'm doing really well, Sean, how about you?

Speaker 1 (00:28):
We're doing fantastic. And as they go over the notes,
I know the answer to this question, but I think
we should let everybody in on this, which is what
are we talking about today?

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Right Well, we're diving into five key investment themes that
will shape supposedly the markets in twenty twenty five and beyond.
It's based on opinions from an economists and portfolio managers
from the Capitol Group, which manages the American funds, and
we're talking about you know, currently, obviously markets are pretty optimistic.

(00:58):
Markets are high, fueled by strong US economy, interest rate cuts,
and groundbreaking advancements and artificial intelligence. The S and P
five hundred has been back to back STILLAR gains, rising
twenty five percent in twenty twenty four after a twenty
six percent surge in twenty twenty three. So the question,
of course is will there be a repeat in twenty

(01:19):
twenty five, But that's unknown. But there are some positive
themes that I want to talk about today that could
support long term gains and stocks. So this is a
pretty optimistic viewpoint, but again I think definitely has some
merit and i'd love to talk about today.

Speaker 1 (01:35):
Oh it's going to be an exciting one. As we
talked with certified financial planner Tracy Anton right here, I'm
thirteen ten WIV, So let's talk about kind of that
first trend that we're seeing in twenty twenty five. Tracy, So,
if you've.

Speaker 2 (01:46):
Seen the movie The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, you're
familiar with the idea of aging in reverse. So American
Funds that came out with an article that we had
talked about a few shows ago, talking about, you know,
the economy and how the economy could reverse from what
stage it's in. So instead of following like the usual

(02:07):
four stage economic cycle, the US seems to be shifting
from a late cycle phase back to a mid cycle phase.
So according to the Capitol Group economist Jared Franz, he
said this is happening because corporate profits are rising and
demand for credit is increasing. He also said cost pressures

(02:28):
are easing, and the Federal Reserve is moving toward a
more neutral stance on interest rates. So again, according to
this economist Franz, he says, we saw all those four
things happen in twenty twenty four, and going forward, he
believes that the US is headed for a multi year
expansion period, perhaps, he said, even fending off a recession

(02:50):
until twenty twenty eight. So we had been in late cycle,
and they had been talking about this for many years
that we were in late cycle. And then the next cycle,
of course is recession. So that's not great. You know,
that was never great news. And we're all kind of like, well,
I guess we're just extending that, you know, the late cycle.
We're still extending the lates every year. It was kind
of like we're extending it. Now they're saying, wait a minute,

(03:13):
we're seeing different things instead of you know, a typical
four stage cycle going in order. Now we're going backwards,
and so obviously that could be in a really really
good news for the economy and the stocks. So again,
all this creates a strong environment for stocks. Historically, stock
market returns, they did an analysis of this shun that

(03:36):
stock market returns have been about fourteen percent during a
mid cycle stage, which is much better than a late
cycle stage, which historically had been around eight point nine percent.
So this shift also, he said, pushes back the possibility
of a recession. That's huge because we're stocks on average
lost nine point four percent, which means the economy could

(03:57):
keep growing, he said, for several more years again, possibly
until twenty twenty eight. So again, really good news as
far as you know, could we expect stocks to continue
to do well and also could we be kicking the
can of recession you know, down the road. So let's hope.

Speaker 1 (04:16):
Yeah, it sounds like it sounds like a lot of
good reasons to be optimistic this morning. So we talked
with certified financial planner Tracy Anton right here on thirteen
ten Wui b A talking about key investment themes for
twenty twenty five. Don't forget. Tracy comes to us from
t Anton Investment House a fee only fduciary the website
Tanton investment House dot com. That's t A N t

(04:37):
o N Investment House dot com. Delph number six oh
eight five zero one fifteen four and nine. That's six
oh eight five zero one fifteen four and that's Tracy.
As we talk about this expansion, where are we seeing
that happen in the economy.

Speaker 2 (04:49):
Well, the US is experiencing an industrial renaissance, driving economic
growth from the heartland to the deserts of the Southwest.
So major capital expender ex projects are reshaping local economies,
creating jobs and providing new opportunities for businesses. And one
of the high profile examples that the American Funds gave

(05:10):
is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing company sixty five billion investment in
new production facility in Arizona, which is set to generate
thousands of manufacturing and construction jobs. But they even said,
you know, beyond these headlining grabbing meta mega projects, many small,

(05:30):
smaller scale developments are quietly fueling this resurgence. Companies like
Scorpius Biomanufacturing are contributing to the momentum with their five
hundred thousand square foot facility in Kansas dedicated to producing
biodefense molecules, bringing hundreds of jobs to that region. So again,
this wave of industrial expansion signals a long term shift

(05:53):
toward revitalizing US manufacturing and infrastructure, reinforcing the country's position
as a global economic leader. And again they also said
this industrial research isn't limited just to the United States,
It's happening worldwide. In Europe, major industrial players are benefiting
from the rapid expansion of data centers, increasing travel demand,

(06:15):
and the push for new energy sources. Meanwhile, in emerging markets,
the rise of near shoring is transforming global supply chains,
leading to the construction of new trade hubs and manufacturing centers.
As companies seek to reduce the res reliance on distant suppliers,
many are shifting production closer to key markets, creating fresh

(06:37):
economic opportunities and reshaping international trade dynamics. So again, some
really good news about what's actually happening in different in
different states, but also in different countries. And you know,
some of this is a response to what happened during COVID, Right,
we had supply Chaine issues, so people got you know,

(06:57):
caught short footed or what do they say about that?
I put it. Yes, it's the idea that you know, hey,
we've got to take care of that, and how is
that going to change? And they're making those changes and
again really just really good news for the expansion of
the economy, and again that's always good news for stocks.

Speaker 1 (07:17):
Don't want to get short sighted and flat footed, I
think is what we're trying to avoid.

Speaker 2 (07:21):
Yeah, okay, yes, I gotta write that One's.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
It's great to hear and I love that, you know,
as we've learned different lessons and kind of experienced things
that and I think one of the things I've learned
from doing the show with you, Tracy over the years
is markets adapt and it's so you know, we see
these scase studies of literally the markets doing just that.
As we talked this morning, we sort of find financial
planner Tracy Anton right here. I'm thirteen ten wuib A.

(07:48):
So let's talk about the tech industry. I know it's
been very hot. Are we still seeing that surge in
the tech industry?

Speaker 2 (07:55):
Yeah. The rise of artificial intelligence has sparked a widespread excitement,
with many envisioning a future transformed by AI. Right AI machines. Well,
some of the hype may be overstated, but the long
term potential is also likely even greater than we anticipate.
So historically, major technological shifts tend to be overstated in

(08:16):
the short run but understated in the long run. So
investors again tend to underestimate the long term impact of
new technology. And here was some examples they gave. We've
underestimated the PC market by about thirty six percent, so
what they estimated people would use their PCs now, you know,
coming to fruition, it's about thirty six percent less than

(08:38):
what they thought. The Internet users are about fifty eight
percent or more than what they anticipated, and mobile phone
users are thirty six percent more than what they anticipated,
and cloud users by about twenty two percent. So again,
you know, this just shows that short term there might
be a lot of excitement and go, oh, you know,

(09:01):
we're overestimating, but long term we're probably underestimating what this
could look like. So again, the size of AR market
AI market is estimated to be about one point one
point eight trillion, But the question is long term, you know,
is that an underestimate? You know, so that it's really
interesting when you start thinking about what we've experienced in

(09:24):
our lifetime and what that looks like. Right, It's huge.
Now some kids are saying, I don't know anything different,
But you and I did the phone. We understand with
the cord, you know, the whole thing. So anyway, unlike
trends like the smartphones and autonomous vehicles, where growth projections

(09:44):
can be based on known factors like global population or
the number of cars on the road, AI's impact is
harder to quantify. However, It's influence across industries from automation
to data analysis suggests it could drive stock market growth
for years to come. And the thing that I think
that people think, well, it's just going to affect the

(10:06):
tech It's going to affect more than just a tech sector.
It's all of these industries that are going to benefit.

Speaker 1 (10:11):
I want to ask you a little bit about about
some of those industries that could be influenced by and
benefit from AI. We're going to do with that that
with Tracy in just a moment. In the meantime, have
you been over to the website. Urge you to head
on over check it out. Tanton investment House dot com.
That's t A N t O N Investment House dot com.
Great website and resource to learn more about Tracy and

(10:32):
the team. You can also listen back to this in
previous shows podcast. Again that all available to you at
Tantoninvestment House dot com. Tellph number six oh eight five
zero one fifteen forty nine. That's six oh eight five
zero one fifteen four nine. We'll cidu you our conversation
with Tracy next as straight Talk from the House continues
right here on thirteen ten wui b A. This is

(10:52):
straight Talk from the House with certified financial planner Tracyanton
here on thirteen ten wui b A. Of course, Tracy
comes to us from t Anton Investment House, a fee
only fiduciary. The website Tanton Investmenthouse dot com. That's t
A N t O N investment House dot com. Great
website and resource to learn more about Tracy and the
team at Tanton Investment House. And again that website t

(11:15):
Anton Investment House dot com. Telephone number. Yeah, some folks
still like to make phone calls six oh eight five
zero one fifteen forty nine. That's six oh eight five
zero one fifteen forty nine. Talking about five key investment
themes in twenty twenty five. Some great stuff. By the way,
if you miss that previous segment. You can always listen
back at Tantoninvestment House dot Com and Tracey, we left

(11:35):
off kind of scratching the surface when it comes to AI,
and let's kind of break this down. Does AI effect
on traditional industries as well as tech?

Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, AIS impact extends far beyond the tech sector. It
creates unexpected opportunities and actually traditional industries. The rapid expansion
of data centers requires massive physical infrastructure, driving demand for
essential research is like cop copper, capital equipment and electricity.
As a result, industries such as utilities, industrials, and mining

(12:07):
are experiencing a surge and growth, benefiting from the increasing
need for power and raw materials. This convergence of cutting
edge technology and old economy industry highlights AI's far reaching influence,
shaping markets in ways that go way beyond software and automation.

Speaker 1 (12:26):
That is fantastic information and it's interesting to get kind
of that perspective as well. I think a lot of
times we think, oh, eh, it's just.

Speaker 2 (12:32):
Going to be ticking out right, right. I mean, yeah,
it's such a traditional mindset, right.

Speaker 1 (12:36):
That is fascinating stuff. So we talk with certified financial
planner Tracy Anton here at thirteen ten Wiba. Speaking of technology,
there's some powerful stuff out there when it comes to
tools and resources and places to learn thingst on investment
house dot com. It's a great resource for you. You can
learn more about Tracy. You can check in on some
great articles and other information. You can also listen back
to this in previous shows, podcasts. Those all are available

(12:59):
to you at TAM investment House dot com. That's t
A N t N investment House dot com. Want to
bookmark that web page as well. The telephone number six
oh eight five zero one, fifteen forty nine. Six oh
eight five zero one fifteen forty nine. Talking to this
week about the five key investing themes, five of them
for twenty twenty five. So Tracy, what about some of

(13:19):
the other sectors? What are some other areas that could
show growth in the coming year.

Speaker 2 (13:24):
Well, the healthcare industry is entering a golden age of
drug discovery, despite recent market challenges following last year's US
selection you know, and also regulatory uncertainty that led to
a decline in healthcare stocks, further weighing down a sector
that had already been struggling. However, this downturn has created

(13:47):
attractive investment opportunities for those with long term perspective because
the stocks are down relative to their earnings. Portfolio manager
Cheryl Frank sees potential in what she calls forgotten pharma,
which are drug makers that aren't involved in the weight
loss drug boom. You know, she is particularly focusing on strong,

(14:07):
dividend paying pharmaceutical companies that have been overlooked by the
market or offering compelling value for investors willing to look
beyond short term trends. So you know, instead of just
looking for that that stock that's going to be, you know,
a huge winner, she's looking for, you know, just get

(14:28):
on base, right, keep getting on base, getting on base.
But those getting on base, you know, can can produce
double digits.

Speaker 1 (14:34):
That is that is very, very true, and that's a
really good insight. As we talked with certified financial planner
Tracy Anton here, I'm thirteen to ten wuiba, so I
mentioned things like drug makers and oh my goodness, I
don't know that you can can turn on the TV
or the radio or scroll through it not hear about
different types of weight loss drugs aren'tying. There's been quite
the revolution when it comes to some of these medications.

(14:56):
Are there other drugs making headlines besides the ones for
weight loss?

Speaker 2 (15:00):
That's a great point. So while weight loss drug shown
like GLP DASH ones often dominate the headlines, pharmaceutical innovation
is advancing on many other fronts. The world's largest drug
companies currently have more than two hundred treatments in development
targeting some of the most challenging and debilitating diseases. These

(15:20):
breakthroughs have already contributed to lower mortality rates and longer
life expectancies, and over the next decade, we may see
effective treatments for the conditions like als, sickle cell disease,
and muscular distrophe. I mean, wouldn't that be something. I mean,
everybody knows someone that's been affected by these really difficult diseases.

(15:43):
So again, while investing in biotech and pharma also always
carries risks, the industry appears to be on the brink
of a golden age, one that could benefit both patients
investors alike. So that's just huge. I mean, and to
think that you know, two hundred new drugs coming to
the to the market that could have could you know,
help people that are suffering like this.

Speaker 1 (16:04):
It is pretty amazing. The potentials that's out there, and
you think about just, yeah, the revolutions that have been made,
the amazing breakthroughs that have happened. You know, we talked
about not just in the last decade, in the last
couple of years. It is amazing what they're able to do.
And as we talk with certified financial planner Tracy Anton,
a lot of great information and there's also a lot
of information in the podcast as well that you may

(16:25):
have missed. Always great opportunity to listen back if you
head on over to the website Tanton investment House dot com.
That's t A N t o N investment house dot com.
A lot of great information there also links to this
in previous shows podcasts. Again, that's all available to you
free of charge at Tanton investment House dot com. That's
t A N t O N investment House dot com.

(16:46):
Telephon number six oh eight five zero one, fifteen forty nine.
That's six oh eight five zero one, fifteen forty nine. So, Tracy,
let's talk about timing. And I almost feel like like
I should get out a little buzzer, a little don't
use the word timing, but let's talk about the right
time to invest Yeah, it's a great question.

Speaker 2 (17:06):
I just had a client call me and they said,
you know, they left a message, and I was like,
do you think it's okay to invest right now? He
already had money INVESTI plenty of money invesor, but he
wanted to add more. Right, his CDs were coming due
and he wasn't happy with the way that the rates
were coming down. And you know, it's like the same

(17:26):
old story, right, Like we all wish we would have
had invested ten years ago, twenty years ago, thirty years
You know, it's the same old story. Is today better?
You know? So this article is pointing out that imagine
it's New Year's Day, twenty twenty, and you somehow know
everything that's going to happen over the next five years.
So you know that the COVID nineteen pandemic's going to happen.

(17:48):
You know there's going to be a major market crash,
because there was right markets were down thirty percent, inflation
soaring past nine percent, that happened, wars in Ukraine and
the Middle East, a trade war with China, and politically
uncertainty in the US. I mean, you knew all of that.
I don't know if you'd get out of bed. But
you knew all of that. Knowing all that in advance,

(18:09):
would keep Would you feel confident investing in stocks?

Speaker 1 (18:13):
I mean, would you at the time?

Speaker 2 (18:15):
No, But no I don't think so. But former CAPITALI
Group executive Graham holloways he said, in my twenty five
years in the mutual fund business, I have never known
a good time to invest. There's always a dozen reasons
why it makes sense to wait. We have a new president,
we have strife in the Middle East, we have excess

(18:37):
excessive government regulation, we have oppressive tax rates, and in
Congress that is more part of the problem than the solution.
Do you know, Sean, when I read that quote, I
was thinking of really thinking about what he was saying,
you know, each each each point he was saying. I
was like, Okay, that is that true today? Is that
true today? Because you know, I'd never like to say
anything online on here that I don't think it's absolutely true.

(19:02):
And it says that quote actually sounds like it was
from today, right it does? Yes, I know me too.
I was totally I totally believe that quote, but it's
actually from nineteen eighty one.

Speaker 1 (19:15):
Oh wow.

Speaker 2 (19:16):
Yeah. So the point is this always reasons not to invest.
That was nineteen eighty one. That's true today just like
it was true in twenty twenty or nineteen eighty one.
So there's always a lot of reasons not to invest,
but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't do it. If
it's long term money. I try always trust to stress that,

(19:36):
and people say, well, what's long term? If you have
a five to seven year time horizon or longer, your
money should be invested so that it earns market capital rates,
market rates, you know, things that you and well, diversification,
and that's what I would recommend, and I wouldn't look
at the headlines. I would put my money in. I

(19:58):
would do it, and I would take advantage of roths.
I take advantage of you know, what would get me
from point A to point B tax wise the best.
But I would also just get my money invested in stocks.

Speaker 1 (20:11):
I always tell her the new kids around here at
the radio station, as I'm looking at one of them
through the glass right now, I always tell them they
can speak to this. Invest invest, invest, and you'll never
regret it. And especially when you're young, the more money
right squirrel away, all the better you will be. So
Tracy what is like you went back to twenty twenty,
What's what do we see there?

Speaker 2 (20:31):
Yeah, So if you would go back to twenty twenty
and you would have ignored all those troubling signs that
we talked about and you stayed invested, the S and
P five hundred index has risen more than one hundred
percent since twenty twenty. Wow. Right, So you would have
had to ignore all those things. Right, every time something

(20:51):
bad broke out, you know, a war broke out, or
you know the and you saw inflation headline or you know,
even market crash and you live through that right down
thirty percent, you were like, I'm gonna ignore it. I'm
gonna ignore it. That's your reward. That's your reward. Now
it doesn't always guarantee, right, I can't guarantee it'll be

(21:12):
the future reward, but it's significant. And again it's just
don't wait until things get better, you know, don't don't wait.

Speaker 1 (21:20):
Really puts it into perspective, that is for sure. As
we talked this morning with certified financial planner Tracy Anton
here on thirteen ten wui b A don't forget. You
can learn more about tracing the team all the website
Tanton investment House dot com. That's t a N t
o N investment House dot com A TOPH number six
oh eight five zero one, fifteen forty nine. That's six
oh eight five zero one, fifteen forty nine, Tracy. It's

(21:41):
always great chatting with you. You enjoy this beautiful day.

Speaker 2 (21:44):
Thanks Sean. Take care,