Looking at 2024

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Episode Transcript

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All topics and securities mentioned on StraightTalk from the House or for informational purposes
only, and should not be usedas investment advice. T Anton Investment House
does not offer tax or legal advice. Investments or investment strategies covered are not
a recommendation or solicitation to buy orsell. The security's past performance is not
a guarantee of future performance. Thirteenten WIBA Straight Talk from the House with

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Certified Financial Planner Tracy Anton. Tracycomes to us from Tanton Investment House,
a fee only fiduciary with offices rightin Middleton. That website t Anton Investmenthouse
dot com. That's t A Nt O N Investment House dot com and
the telephone number for the office inMiddleton six oh eight five zero one,

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fifteen forty nine. That's six oheight five zero one, fifteen forty nine.
En Joining us this morning is certifiedfinancial Planner Tracyanton. Tracy. How
you doing this morning? I'm doinggreat, Sean. I don't know how
you do it. How do youwake up and you have so much energy?
I mean, I'm smiling over herebecause I'm just sim there thinking to
myself, my god, how muchcoffee have you had this morning. That

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is the trick right there, forsure. And it's always exciting too.
I get excited when I see ourshow plan for each each week. I
get really excited because we talk aboutsuch great stuff. In this week,
we're going to talk about get aneconomic outlook and look towards twenty twenty four
and Tracy, what can we expectfor twenty twenty four? Well, Sean,

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I think there's a lot of optimismright now around twenty twenty four.
People are expecting that the markets willdo well, and of course, you
know, no one knows for sure, and that's why you always have to
make sure that your asset allocation isproper for where you're at. But they're
even expecting stock and bond markets todo well. So what we saw in
twenty twenty three was a year ofpretty much elevated inflation higher interest rates,

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which caused global economies to navigate inmuch different ways. For example, surprisingly
the United States, Japan, andIndia have been helping to boost the globally
economic outlook for twenty twenty four.But then there's still signs of weakness in
Europe as well as China, andthat's you know, tempering some of the
expectations for the new year. Buthere in the US, expectations that the

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Federal Reserve will potentially lower interest ratesmid year or toward the end of the
year, everly have caused people tobe much more optimistic and markets have moved
up significantly, and so there isa lot of optimism in twenty twenty four
that you know, recession will nothappen. And of course we've always said

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and they continue to say that evenif it does, it would be it
would be quite mild. So,I mean, there's just there's a lot
of things that people are pretty excitedabout right now, and you can see
that as markets are moving up.Yeah, it looks like an exciting year
ahead. In Tracy, then howis the US economy You mentioned that part
kind of tab to global growth.What are some of those factors involved there?

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What's in play? Well, I, you know, I do a
lot of research and one of thegroups that I think have been right more,
you know, right more than wrongis Capitol Group, which is through
the American Group, American Funds,and the US economist Jared Franz. He
said that the resilience of the USeconomy in particular really has been remarkable when

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you consider how much consumer prices havegone up here and how aggressive the Federal
Reserve has raised interest rates, andof course they've done that to temper inflation.
So he said, it's a testamentto the American consumer and labor market
durability. It has helped alleviate someof the worries, he says, about
an impending recession. Of course thatcould still happen, but the risk has

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declined substantially, he said, Soagain a lot of optimism around this idea
that hey, you know, weinflation has come down significant and why is
that? It's because the money supplyhas come down because they've stopped buying bonds,
buying the treasury bonds. So that'sreally helped the M two or money

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supply and brought down inflation. Andso instead of the instead of the Federal
Reserve raising rates, obviously this lasttime they held rates the same, and
so there's an expectation that they mightlower rates. And when you lower the
cost of capital, then companies dowell. Right, Talking this morning with

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certified financial planner Tracyton, getting anoutlook and some expectations for twenty twenty four,
A lot of great information every weekin the program don't forget. You
can always listen back to the podcastat Tanton Investmenthouse dot com. That's t
A N T O N investment Housedot com. Also, while you're there,
you can get to know Tracy inthe team. You can also schedule
appointment right online at a time anda date that's convenient to you. If

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you're looking for money management or portfoliomanagement, Tracy in the Team would love
to get to know you. AllI got to do is head on over
to Tantoninvestmenthouse dot com and schedule appointmentright there online. You can also always
pick up phone give them a callsix oh eight five zero one fifteen forty
nine. That's six oh eight fivezero one fifteen forty nine. So you
touched on the US part. Iknow the other couple areas that you mentioned

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there global growth growth forecasts for twentytwenty four. What about Europe and China?
How do they fit into that outlook? Tracy? Well, apparently the
International Monetary Fund, the IMF forecastglobal growth to average about two point nine
percent and twenty twenty four Seawan andagain this is slightly down from the three
percent in twenty twenty three. However, Europe and China are expected to weigh

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on that global growth due to challengesin the trade and rising geopolitical tensions.
And obviously Germany, which is thelargest European economy, is already contracting,
and that's influenced by the slowdown inmanufacturing. It's also influenced by the reduced
demand that China has for Germany.So what what we're seeing right now is

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that the full twenty member Eurozone andthe UK are flatlining and could have a
more difficult time and if energy pricescontinue to rise as dramatically as they have
over the past two years. Andthe economists from American Funds Lynd He expects
the European economy to pick up intwenty twenty four, but he believes it

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will be a shallow recovery, somethingI'm definitely going to want to keep an
eye on and pay attention to aswe talk with certified financial planner Tracy Onton
right here on thirteen ten wi BA. Of course, Tracy comes to us
from Tanton Investment House, the websiteTantoninvestment House dot com and the telephone number
six oh eight five zero one fifteenforty nine that's six soh eight five zero

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one, fifteen forty nine. Interestrates, Tracy, everybody's talking about them,
Let's talk about the impact that they'vehad in the global economy and kind
of the outlook for interest rates inthe coming years. Well, high interest
rates are impact the economies very differently, but a sharp decline in rates is
highly unlikely. So again, portfoliomanager Promad Altouri suggests that despite higher rates,

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consumers may continue to support the economydue to sustain wages and home values.
Well, why is that. It'sbecause it helps the consumer spender spending,
and so the economy is seventy percentgeared by the consumer spending. So
it's basically that the consumer has heldup much better than expected, and that's
why the economy looks so good.But if you look at a historical perspective

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on US bond yield, Sean,we're basically looking at current rates are within
range of historical norms. So lookingahead to twenty twenty four at LWY,
he anticipates that the ten year UStreasure yield may remain in the range of
three and a half to five anda half. And that's really representing old

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like what they consider old normal.So if you go back sean to eighteen
seventy, roughly sixty one percent ofthe time rates have stayed mostly in the
range between three and six percent.So why am I saying this. It's
like because we were used to ratesnear zero, and so we can't really
expect rates to go back down tozero. So what he's saying is expect

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them to be like the old normal, which is a range of three to
six percent. And although this increasein rates could weigh on the markets,
they're saying that investors will likely adjust, and I think most people are agreeing
to that. So I like topoint out what has history shown us now.

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Of course, I always say thatthere's no guarantee that the past will
be like the future type thing.But if we look back when ten year
rates were at four to six percent, the average annual return since nineteen seventy
six for the S and P fivehundred was ten point three eight percent per
year on average, and the Bloombergbond Index was six point five nine percent

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per year on average. So again, what am I looking at? This
data is from December thirty first,nineteen seventy six to October thirty first,
twenty twenty three. Hence, ifrates are in the mid range of three
to six percent, you know marketscan do well in the past. I've
done ten point three eight. I'mnot saying they'll do that again because I

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can't guarantee the future. But youknow, both stock and bond markets did
well when you looked at ten yearperiods with rates of three to six percent.
Really important stuff to keep in mind. As we talked this morning with
certified financial planner Tracyanton. The websiteTantoninvestmenthouse dot com. That's t A N
t O N investment House dot com. Stop on over check the website out

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right now again, that's Tanton InvestmentHouse dot com. And if you're looking
for money management or portfolio management,Tracy and the team at Tanton Investment House
would love to get to know you. They'd love to work with you.
All I got to do is scheduleappointment right online. You'll scroll down a
little bit. You'll see Tracy's smilingface and it says, let's talk.
From there, you can schedule thatappointment at a time and a date that's
convenient to you right online at TantonInvestment House dot com. If you prefer

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to pick up phone, give thema call really to do six oh eight
five zero one, fifteen forty nine. That's six oh eight five zero one,
fifteen forty nine before we run tobreak tracy real quick. What are
some of the opportunities and challenges thatare that are highlighted for investors in this
coming year. Well, we've talkedseveral times already about this window of opportunity

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quote unquote for investors to move fromcash, which is like money and money
markets and CDs and things like that, because moving from that to the stock
and bond markets. And why dowe say that, it's assuming that central
banks around the world and especially here, you know that they're done raising rates,

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and if they lower rates, whatyou're going to find is bond the
bond market will rise, right,because it's an inverse relationship, and it's
likely that people will move money backinto the stock market. Of course,
no guarantees, but in general,historically, the period between the end of
a rate hiking cycle and the initialrate cut has been a crucial time for

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investors to basically redeploy the cash fromtheir fixed things and banks to the stock
and bond markets, and that hasbeen has done well for investors So we've
talked about this window of opportunity manytimes in the last several months, and
I think this window of opportunity stillexists and I would look to doing that.

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And why would I do it Becauseif they lower interest rates, the
money that's being paid in the bankaccounts will likely go down and therefore you
won't be getting those same rates.You know, we talk about opportunities and
it's always you know, we alwayssay, what's the best data data?
Start working on this stuff. Itwas yesterday, what's the second best day?
It is today? It is now? Today's a great dat to start
that conversation with certified financial planner TracyAndton. If you're looking for money management

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or portfolio management, Tracy would loveto get to know Youah I gotta do
is head on over to the websiteTanton Investment House dot com. Gets schedule
aployment right online at a time anda date that's convenience to you, or
pick a phone call the office rightin Middleton six oh eight five zero one,
fifteen forty nine. That's six oheight five zero one, fifteen forty
nine. There's a rumor going aroundthat there's going to be a presidential election.

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We'll get the details from Tracy whatthat means for investors. We will
get those details next as Straight Talkfrom the House continues right here on thirteen
ten wu ib A thirty ten WIb A and Straight Talk from the House
with Certified Financial Planner tra C ANDTNthe website Tanton Investment hoouse dot com.

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That's t A N t O NInvestment House dot com. On the telephone
number six oh eight five zero one, fifteen forty nine. That's six oh
eight five zero one, fifteen fortynine. Before we start talking the election,
and there's some really interesting information there. Trace we left off talking about
as we kind of we're looking towardstwenty twenty four and some of the expectations,
talking about some of the opportunities thatmay be out there. And I

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think a lot of people then say, well, let's talk about that financial
plan. That's an important part ofall of this, isn't having that plan
in place? Yeah? It reallyis, because when you have a financial
plan, you can really see whereyou're going, and you can also take
usually a deep sigh of relief andgo, you know what, I'm in
pretty good shape or I've got thisgoal of retirement and I'm in good shape,

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and that frees me up to say, what about today? What are
the things I want to do today? How do I want to use my
cash for fun or for vacations orfor living my best life today? What
are some intermediate term goals that Ireally would like to do as well?
I mean people usually have a lotgoing on, whether it's you know,

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someone's sick at home, or someone'sgetting divorced, or someone's getting married,
or someone's having a baby. Imean, the lot of stuff that's happening.
I recently had the pleasure of meetinga new a new potential client,
and she said, you know,I feel like when I talk to my
advisor, I can't get a goodhandle on I. You know, I

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bought this condo, but you know, I made a quick decision, and
you know, how does this allfit into my world? Like? How
does this decision and this other decisionthat's happening in my life? How is
these? You know, how dothese how do they fit together? And
I said, you know, well, actually we we we put your numbers
into our financial advisoring package here,into our financial planning software, and let's

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take a look. And it wasjust amazing how her eyes opened up because
she could see how the money changesover time. And I know that sounds
so simple, but until you seeit in front of you and it shows
you, you know your tax implications, it'll show you your requirementimal distributions over

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time, it'll show you your growthrate. And of course we make assumptions
when we do this, Sean,you know, we usually assume about seven
percent as a as a way toreturn with a allocation of perhaps seventy percent
stocks thirty percent bonds. But thething is is when you can see it
over time and you can see,okay, well this is how much I

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would actually need to take out andI can retire, just that feeling of
yeah I can retire. I amthere, I have hit my number or
I've hit a good range. Youknow, nothing is perfect, and you
don't know absolutes. There's that's truefor everything. But in general, when
people see their financial plan laid outand it's really not that many pages.

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One person said to me, it'sreally only two pages that you that you
keep toggling between and showing me.And I'm like, that's right, because
that's what it kind of boils downto. It boils down to what is
your cash flow, what is itthat you need, and then how does
that affect the investment portfolio that you'vecreated and the tax ramifications of that.
It's really an exciting opportunity as youtalk about you know, putting that putting

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that plan together and seeing those numbersand actually seeing that goal and those things
be achieved and really giving you thatpeace of mind at night and as you
as you planned for retirement and planfor your future. That's the amazing thing.
And it all starts with a phonecall or schedule and appoyment right online.
Tracy and her team love to getto know you. Tanton Investment House
dot com or pick up phone callthe office six SOH eight five zero one

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fifteen forty nine. That's six SOHeight five zero one, fifteen forty nine.
There's a rumor going around that there'sgoing to be an election and it's
a It's a big one, isn'tit. That's right, Well, twenty
twenty four will be a pivotabal,pivotal election year, not only Sean in
the US, but in many othercountries including India, Russia, South Africa,

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Taiwan and the UK. So globallyspeaking, it could be really one
of the most impactful election years inhistory. Obviously, the US election will
take center stage, and you know, it makes sense when people think about,
oh, they're a little more anxiousabout the market, you know,
and why are they anxious. They'reworried like will it not be a clear

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vote? Will it be a closevote? So, you know, obviously
political uncertainty, it can introduce volatility. But historically, again let's look at
what the data suggests whether one politicalparty wins the White House or the other
political party wins. You know,really what is the long term impact on

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the investment returns? Because that's whatwe care about when we talk about stock
markets, right and bond markets.It's like, what is the return if
the Democrats win or the Republicans win. So I went back since nineteen thirty
six, the ten year annualized returnof US stocks measured by the S and
P five hundred, looking at thestart of an election year. If a

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Democrat won, the ten year returnwas eleven point two percent. Now if
a Republican rue, it was tenpoint five percent. That's what the ten
year numbers showed every single ten yearcycle of an election year. So what
does this all mean. Obviously,it means that long term there's opportunity in
the stock and bond markets no matterwho wins the presidential race. And Capital

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Group's president and CEO, Mike Gitlin, he expresses that the belief that the
long term investors may actually find attractiveopportunities in the stock and bond markets amid
this anticipated transition fascinating stuff. AndI know political folks don't want to hear
that, but the reality is thatdoes clearly look at those numbers, that
doesn't make a y. Yeah,I know, it's like, wow,

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it doesn't really matter that much,you know. So let's talk that about
the potential impact then of the electionoverall on investors. What's more information on
that area? Well, Capitol Groupportfolio manager Rob Lovelace, he says that
people who have invested through many electioncycles, He's had a thirty seven year
career actually, and he says thatthe added political uncertainty cande attractive investment opportunities

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at times. Lovelace suggests that wheneveryone is worried that a new government policy
is going to hurt a sector,that concern is usually overblown, and he
stated high quality companies often get caughtin this political crosshairs, which can create
a buying opportunity. Obviously, hesays, I aim for a long average

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holding period in my portfolio, soI typically try to look beyond the election
cycle. But again, opportunity doesexist in all kinds of sectors. And
just when people go, oh,that's for sure, we know that that's
going to happen, probably isn't trueeither. So I think that there is
a great time. You know,markets they always are a little uncertain,

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and that's part of that's part ofthe deal. You have to kind of
accept that. But the reality isis a in an election cycle, you
can have a very good year nomatter which political party wins, and there's
just again opportunity here. It's apretty amazing time, and of course it's
a great day as we start lookingtowards the new year and looking towards twenty

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twenty four, it's a great dayto start that conversation. You can learn
more about Tracy and the team atthe website Tanton Investmenthouse dot com. That's
t A N t o N investmentHouse dot com. Also from the site,
you can schedule an appointment at atime and a date that's convenient to
you. Again the website Tantoninvestmenthouse dotcom. Of course, you can always
pick up phone, call the officemake an appointment that way six oh eight

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five zero one fifteen forty nine.That's six oh eight five zero one fifteen
forty nine, Tracy. It's alwaysgreat chatting with you. You enjoy this
most beautiful days you too, takecare. News comes your way next right
here on thirteen ten wib e