MAY 1 TTTs

1.) UST10YR - Rates down!
2.) UST2YR - Fed Rate Cuts Incoming?!
3.) GOLD - Correction...right on time

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now here's your care for my wealth guy, Chris Clyde,
Good morning, Happy May. First, well, will this be a
sell in May and go away? Or are we going
to get the inverse of selling may go away? Seems
like everything is on its head these days, so who knows. However,
what I do know is that the bottom market gave
us its decision rates down, So the US ten year

(00:25):
treasury yield broke trend at four point one seven percent yesterday.
And perhaps more importantly is that the signal and again
when I say signal, it's the rate of change of
price volume and volatility, has given us another lower high,
currently at four point three to three percent. So things

(00:45):
could get really really interesting if that signal breaks trend
at four point one seven. In other words, if the
price volume and volatility signal starts to give me a
level below four point one seven, then rates are definitely
headed lower, which give us some increasing probabilities of recessionary

(01:07):
conditions recessionary signals coming out of these longer dated maturities
ten twenty thirty year bonds. So if you're not long bonds,
the next move in rates toward the top of the
range would be four point three percent would probably be
a good time to buy. And right now we continue
to own seven to ten year treasuries the belly of

(01:27):
the curve, as you would call it, and we think
that that's going to continue to play out well. The
two year treasury is giving also interesting signals our panic
style Fed rate cuts just around the corner. Maybe the
two year yield just continued moves down to move down
to new growth and inflation decelerating cyclos this morning at

(01:50):
three point five eight percent. The previous cycleo in early
April was three point sixty four percent, So that's telling
us that the Fed is going to rates, and it
comes on the heels of a negative Q one GDP
number of negative point two percent, and it's ahead of
what will likely be a slowing labor report the non
farm payroll number comes out tomorrow. Along with continued decelerating

(02:15):
inflation that we've seen currently, we expect the year over
year data for CPI, which of course will be the
April report, to be down to two point twenty nine percent,
and that also would be a new cycle low. So
we'll see what happens there. Because next Wednesday, the Fed
gives us their interest rate decision and it would probably

(02:38):
be a good time for them to actually cut interest rates,
because if all they were to do in history was
to keep the Fed funds rate fairly consistent with what
the two year Treasury is doing, markets would be far
better off and things would not be as crazy as
they tend to be. So will they guide themselves specific

(02:58):
to what the market is saying. I'm not going to
hold my breath, but there's that increasing probability and hope
and expectation. The last thing is gold. I know everybody
loves gold right well, right at the time where everybody
was getting excited about gold, gold was getting ready to correct,
and that's usually how it goes. In fact, if you
looked back on April to fourteenth and looked at Google

(03:22):
searches for quote how to buy gold, you'd find that
they would have been at an all time high compared
to any time since two thousand and four. And for
anyone who's been reading my emails or listening to my podcast,
you'd know that. On April to twenty second and twenty third,
I noted that there were some exhaustion signals showing up
in gold and that their intermediate term trend near thirty

(03:44):
one hundred was possible, and this morning we've got gold
down roughly just shy at two percent, which of course
changes moment by moment, since it trades moment by moment. However,
we've got now it's down just a little bit more
than two percent towards thirty two hundred, and that's down

(04:04):
about eight percent from last week April twenty second high
of thirty five hundred, when I noted the exhaustion signal.
So it's likely that this dip that we're seeing in
gold is going to be buyable, and this morning's price
isn't a terrible spot to consider that or to do so,
just be aware that three thousand and fifty dollars is
possible when you're looking at it over an intermediate term

(04:28):
time cycle, that's a very strong area of support. That's
what we would refer to as weekly trend. Will we
see it? Who knows? There is a high and increasing
possibility that that happens, And the longer gold stays below
roughly thirty three hundred, the greater the probability is is

(04:50):
that we see thirty fifty. So time will tell. We'll
revisit this again over the next several days. In weeks
and see how it plays out longer term. I think
gold continues to do well as more and more nation
states are identifying the increased probability of holding their assets

(05:11):
or pushing themselves towards hard assets like gold. And now,
of course bitcoin enters that conversation the digital age of
what many have referred to as digital gold. And if
you don't understand bitcoin, there's plenty of ways in which
to find out about how it works, what it is,
the value of it, and where its store of value

(05:32):
is being derived from and why. And I do believe
long term bitcoin is a big, big winner because I
think it's entered that conversation of a hard asset that
not just individuals, but corporations and nation states are going
to want to be putting more and more of their
treasury into. So we'll see how that goes. Anyway, those
are the main things today. I hope you have an amazing, wonderful,

(05:54):
beautiful day, God bless We'll see you next time.