Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now here's your care for my wealth guy, Chris Klin.
Good morning, and welcome to today's Three Things Happy Tuesday.
By the way, all right, we're going to talk about sentiment, bitcoin,
and vis vix real quick. So sentiment. We've discussed a
number of times how sentiment tends to be a good,
mostly contrary and indicator. And last week I commented on
(00:22):
magazine covers and the sentiment signals that those magazine covers reveal.
And when I say magazine covers, I'm talking about substantially larger,
more recognizable financial magazines like The Economist, Barons, Forbes, all
that sort of stuff. And interestingly, we get some stuff
(00:43):
like that out of the Wall Street Journal too. At
the beginning of April, you had the Wall Street Journal
telling everybody that we're headed for the worst April since
the Great Depression. You can find that online if you
want to read about it. Well, April's over, and it
didn't turn out that way. The S and P five
hundred recovered from a decline of almost fourteen percent over
just the first five trading days of the month, by
the way, and it closed down for the month of
(01:05):
April just eight tenths of a percent. Right, not that
big of a deal. According to the American Association of
Individual Investors, more than half of individuals are bearish equities
over the next six months, and this has been the
case now for ten consecutive weeks. How big of a
deal is that It's never happened ever in the history
of the survey, which goes all the way back into
(01:26):
the eighties. It didn't happen during the Great Financial Crisis,
or the dot com bubble, or even COVID. So now
we have Barons. Barons has been polling big money managers
for nearly thirty years. Most people are familiar with their magazine,
and according to their latest poll, money managers are the
most bearish. Ever, well, they didn't pull us, but who cares?
(01:47):
So the cover of Barons has this little bull in
the middle of the magazine cover that says where did
the bulls go? The percentage of bears in our latest
big money poll is the largest and almost thirty years. Look,
investors are scared, individuals, professionals done matter, investors across the board.
(02:08):
Yet what are we seeing. We're seeing strength inequities both
here and abroad. We've had these weig bread thrust that
I've talked about in the last couple of weeks. This
pervasive bearishness is good for investors who at least understand
how to read the contrariyan nature of these sentiment signals.
Could we see a pullback, Yeah, of course, but we're
seeing higher lows in the signals for the S and
(02:29):
P five hundred, and that's bullish. And again, when you
hear me say signal, it's the rate of change of
price volume and volatility compared against price itself. And the
signal is giving us a higher low than the last
thirty days closing low. And that's an important element to
consider as we think about how markets are likely to
(02:50):
move here over the next several days and weeks. Now,
could we see a pullback, as I just asked, Yeah,
of course, but that higher low scenario is giving us
a bit of a floor, right in addition to that
the floor of its trade. So trade is just simply
the rate of change of price volume and volatility over
a time series of less than a month. The machine
(03:13):
wants to chase that. That's momentum, right, and so that
momentum is giving us an indication where there's some floor,
some support. But as it stands, if in the event
we did get a pullback and it broke through that
trade level, we could see a test all the way
down to oh, roughly that fifty three hundred mark, and
(03:34):
that's about where the low end of the range is
for the S and P five hundred right now. So
bottom line is, I'm not going to get all worried
about a bit of a pullback that might happen. I'm
going to view that as a buying opportunity. Another buying
opportunity is bitcoin for crypto buyers. Bitcoin's in a pretty
good spot to start buying as it's likely front running
(03:56):
a stagflationary part of the cycle here in the US.
In Q three, what's stagflation, it's slow in growth and
reacceleration of inflation. Could that happen, Yeah, it could. In fact,
that's what the current NowCast is that we're identifying and
looking for ways in which we can quantify that in
(04:17):
more detail, and bitcoin is one of those ways. Bitcoin
does well in a stagflationary cycle, and it's signaling both
bullish on trade and trend durations. Again, that's rate of
change of price volume and volatility over a period of
time of less than a month. For trade and more
than three months for trend, and that just gives us
that opportunity to be able to dig in. So Bitcoin
(04:39):
right now is sitting at the low end of its
daily trade range at roughly ninety three thousand. Trade support
is at eighty six thousand, five hundred and thirty two dollars. Now,
I don't really expect it to get there. I expect
it to hold above ninety one five hundred. But hey,
this is crypto, so you can often expect to get
what no one expects. But what are we also seeing.
(05:01):
We're seeing a signal of a higher high where price volume, volatility,
the rate of change of that is at ninety nine thousand,
five hundred. So I'm thinking that bitcoin is one of
those kinds of things that from an investment perspective, right
now signaling the potential for this stagflationary cycle could be
an opportunity for some last thing is VIX. We talk
(05:23):
about volatility a lot because it's a big part of
what makes markets function and move. And right now the
VIX is signaling a higher low with an over sold
condition and a tightening range. And now what does that mean.
It just means that the rate of change of price
volume in volatility is narrowing, and that tends to mean
that VIX wants to move higher. How high well, the
(05:46):
top of its trade range is at twenty eight. If
we saw that, we'd likely see the SMP five hundred
tap down at that fifty three hundred level, which is
the low end of its trading range. It's just math.
Those two work together. The top end of the range
of a calculus for VIX is the low end of
the range for the s and P five hundred, And
if we got that, I'm gonna view that again as
(06:07):
a buying opportunity. So that's that Those are the three
things that I'm seeing as most important right now. Fade
the negativity of this market because no one else is,
and that's usually where you find some really good opportunities.
All right, If you have any questions, give me a
call eight six six five nine six ninety eight eighty
six or shoot me an email. Info at carefromiwelf dot com.
(06:29):
Thank you so much for taking some time with me
this morning. God bless and have a beautiful day.
Now here's your care for my wealth guy, Chris Klin.
Good morning, and welcome to today's Three Things Happy Tuesday.
By the way, all right, we're going to talk about sentiment, bitcoin,
and vis vix real quick. So sentiment. We've discussed a
number of times how sentiment tends to be a good,
mostly contrary and indicator. And last week I commented on
(00:22):
magazine covers and the sentiment signals that those magazine covers reveal.
And when I say magazine covers, I'm talking about substantially larger,
more recognizable financial magazines like The Economist, Barons, Forbes, all
that sort of stuff. And interestingly, we get some stuff
(00:43):
like that out of the Wall Street Journal too. At
the beginning of April, you had the Wall Street Journal
telling everybody that we're headed for the worst April since
the Great Depression. You can find that online if you
want to read about it. Well, April's over, and it
didn't turn out that way. The S and P five
hundred recovered from a decline of almost fourteen percent over
just the first five trading days of the month, by
the way, and it closed down for the month of
(01:05):
April just eight tenths of a percent. Right, not that
big of a deal. According to the American Association of
Individual Investors, more than half of individuals are bearish equities
over the next six months, and this has been the
case now for ten consecutive weeks. How big of a
deal is that It's never happened ever in the history
of the survey, which goes all the way back into
(01:26):
the eighties. It didn't happen during the Great Financial Crisis,
or the dot com bubble, or even COVID. So now
we have Barons. Barons has been polling big money managers
for nearly thirty years. Most people are familiar with their magazine,
and according to their latest poll, money managers are the
most bearish. Ever, well, they didn't pull us, but who cares?
(01:47):
So the cover of Barons has this little bull in
the middle of the magazine cover that says where did
the bulls go? The percentage of bears in our latest
big money poll is the largest and almost thirty years. Look,
investors are scared, individuals, professionals done matter, investors across the board.
(02:08):
Yet what are we seeing. We're seeing strength inequities both
here and abroad. We've had these weig bread thrust that
I've talked about in the last couple of weeks. This
pervasive bearishness is good for investors who at least understand
how to read the contrariyan nature of these sentiment signals.
Could we see a pullback, Yeah, of course, but we're
seeing higher lows in the signals for the S and
(02:29):
P five hundred, and that's bullish. And again, when you
hear me say signal, it's the rate of change of
price volume and volatility compared against price itself. And the
signal is giving us a higher low than the last
thirty days closing low. And that's an important element to
consider as we think about how markets are likely to
(02:50):
move here over the next several days and weeks. Now,
could we see a pullback, as I just asked, Yeah,
of course, but that higher low scenario is giving us
a bit of a floor, right in addition to that
the floor of its trade. So trade is just simply
the rate of change of price volume and volatility over
a time series of less than a month. The machine
(03:13):
wants to chase that. That's momentum, right, and so that
momentum is giving us an indication where there's some floor,
some support. But as it stands, if in the event
we did get a pullback and it broke through that
trade level, we could see a test all the way
down to oh, roughly that fifty three hundred mark, and
(03:34):
that's about where the low end of the range is
for the S and P five hundred right now. So
bottom line is, I'm not going to get all worried
about a bit of a pullback that might happen. I'm
going to view that as a buying opportunity. Another buying
opportunity is bitcoin for crypto buyers. Bitcoin's in a pretty
good spot to start buying as it's likely front running
(03:56):
a stagflationary part of the cycle here in the US.
In Q three, what's stagflation, it's slow in growth and
reacceleration of inflation. Could that happen, Yeah, it could. In fact,
that's what the current NowCast is that we're identifying and
looking for ways in which we can quantify that in
(04:17):
more detail, and bitcoin is one of those ways. Bitcoin
does well in a stagflationary cycle, and it's signaling both
bullish on trade and trend durations. Again, that's rate of
change of price volume and volatility over a period of
time of less than a month. For trade and more
than three months for trend, and that just gives us
that opportunity to be able to dig in. So Bitcoin
(04:39):
right now is sitting at the low end of its
daily trade range at roughly ninety three thousand. Trade support
is at eighty six thousand, five hundred and thirty two dollars. Now,
I don't really expect it to get there. I expect
it to hold above ninety one five hundred. But hey,
this is crypto, so you can often expect to get
what no one expects. But what are we also seeing.
(05:01):
We're seeing a signal of a higher high where price volume, volatility,
the rate of change of that is at ninety nine thousand,
five hundred. So I'm thinking that bitcoin is one of
those kinds of things that from an investment perspective, right
now signaling the potential for this stagflationary cycle could be
an opportunity for some last thing is VIX. We talk
(05:23):
about volatility a lot because it's a big part of
what makes markets function and move. And right now the
VIX is signaling a higher low with an over sold
condition and a tightening range. And now what does that mean.
It just means that the rate of change of price
volume in volatility is narrowing, and that tends to mean
that VIX wants to move higher. How high well, the
(05:46):
top of its trade range is at twenty eight. If
we saw that, we'd likely see the SMP five hundred
tap down at that fifty three hundred level, which is
the low end of its trading range. It's just math.
Those two work together. The top end of the range
of a calculus for VIX is the low end of
the range for the s and P five hundred, And
if we got that, I'm gonna view that again as
(06:07):
a buying opportunity. So that's that Those are the three
things that I'm seeing as most important right now. Fade
the negativity of this market because no one else is,
and that's usually where you find some really good opportunities.
All right, If you have any questions, give me a
call eight six six five nine six ninety eight eighty
six or shoot me an email. Info at carefromiwelf dot com.
(06:29):
Thank you so much for taking some time with me
this morning. God bless and have a beautiful day.
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