August 10, 2023 • 14 mins
Given the number of boarded up retail spaces across New York City, it may not be a surprise that retail jobs are down—there are fewer of most the accessible jobs. What does that mean for the City? Are those jobs coming back, and what needs to happen to insure that New Yorkers are prepared for the jobs the economy is creating? Our guest is Jonathan Bowles is the Executive Director of The Center for an Urban Future, a think tank that serves as a catalyst for smart and sustainable policies to reduce inequality, increase economic mobility, and grow the economy in New York City. For more, visit nycfuture.org.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:02):
Welcome to Get Connected with Nina DelRio, a weekly conversation about fitness,
health, and happenings in our communityon one oh six point seven light FM.
Good morning, and thanks for listeningto Get Connected. Given the number
of empty retail spaces across New YorkCity, it may not be a surprise
that retail jobs are down and thatthere are fewer of the most accessible jobs
(00:24):
in the city. What does thatmean, are those jobs coming back?
And what needs to happen to ensurethat New Yorkers are prepared for the jobs
the economy is creating. Our guestis Jonathan Bowles. He's the executive director
of the Center for an Urban Future. Thank you for being on the show.
Thanks for having me. The Centerfor an Urban Future is a think
tank that serves as a catalyst forsmall and sustainable policies to reduce inequality,
(00:49):
increase economic mobility, and grow theeconomy in New York City. You can
find out more on their website NYCfuture dot org. But I do wish,
Jonathan, you could break down alittle bit of what I just said.
What is the Center for an UrbanFuture, what do you do and
how did the organization get started?Yeah, well, thanks so mumuch for
having me. It's a it's areal pleasure. The Center for an Urban
(01:10):
Future is a think tank based inNew York City that's entirely focused on New
York's future. We're really all aboutcreating a more equitable economy in New York
and expanding economic opportunity for all NewYorkers. And we do it by publishing
reports that ideally get a lot ofattention, that are easily readable and understandable,
(01:33):
and we really put out achievable practicalideas for policy makers that could that
can make real change, that couldhelp people advance into the middle class and
lead better lives. What are someof the most significant policy proposals that the
Center for an Urban Future has helpedadvance in the last few years. You
know, we had a real successthis past year on a proposal to help
(01:59):
CUNE bring back more of the manymany adults in New York City that have
some college credits but never got theirdegree. We know how important a college
credential is in today's economy, andfor a lot of people, they got
really close to getting there, butthat piece of paper, that credential is
so important to be able to accessa better paying job, and the City
(02:23):
of New York, the City Councilspeaker, created this program called Quney Reconnect.
It's trying to get people and thereare roughly seven hundred thousand New York
City residents that have some college credits, but they never got their degree to
go back and this helps. Thisprogram helps them go back and get their
credential, which positions them to geta better paying job. So that was
(02:45):
one thing where we had a greatimpact on. We've written a lot about
apprenticeships, urging the city to expandapprenticeship programs not just in the building trades,
instruction, or manufacturing, but alsoin high wage of fields like tech
and finance and healthcare. We haven'talways had a lot of those kind of
apprenticeships in those emerging and growth areas, but there's such an opportunity, and
(03:12):
apprenticeships really give people from lower incomebackgrounds, people with how to college degree
a real leg up and an opportunityto get work experience and education that allows
them to get really good jobs.Those are a couple of examples, but
we're really all about helping people buildthe skills and get the educational credentials that
(03:32):
allow them to get ahead, toclimb into the middle class, and to
get access to better paying jobs.So retail jobs they are slightly up actually
across the country, which is goodnews, but not in New York.
Since February twenty twenty, retail jobsin New York City are down eleven percent.
(03:52):
Why so much decline here, It'sreally a great question. And you
know, first of all, letme say that retail store are so important
for a lot of reasons, right. They really kind of make neighborhoods unique
and vibrant. They bring people tothe streets, they support local entrepreneurs,
they often keep money in our neighborhoods, and sometimes they attract tourists. It's
(04:15):
a really important part of the city. But you know, as you mentioned
that, there's this other crucial partof retail, the jobs. And we
think this is important because there areroughly three hundred thousand retail jobs in New
York City, and about seventy percentof them, two hundred and fifteen thousand
of those jobs are held by NewYorkers of color. In many cases,
(04:36):
they're held by young people. Asignificant share of retail jobs are held by
people under the age of twenty fiveand we know there's there's higher unemployment rates
for younger New Yorkers, for teensand young adults. They are held by
folks without a college credential to alarge extent, and there's a lot of
people in New York that really havelimited opportunities because of the lack of a
(04:58):
college credential. But you're right,they are down still, and I think
what concerns us is that it's notjust that the retail jobs are down since
the beginning of the pandemic or thatthey haven't fully recovered, but that they're
actually down since twenty fifteen even more, and that really corresponds with the rise
of e commerce. So you knowwhat what has us so concerned is that
(05:21):
we're really worried that New York willnever get back to the level of retail
employment that we had they basically intwenty fourteen or twenty fifteen, but certainly
before the pandemic. And you know, people are shopping online, they're they're
they're they're buying all these things fromthe comfort or their home or their office,
and that's really affecting jobs. Ijust want to give a number for
(05:44):
a moment so people can understand whatwe're talking about here. So again,
across New York City, retail isdown eleven percent. The most decline if
you're looking at subsectors is in clothingin accessories twenty seven percent from February of
twenty twenty, which is a huge, huge, huge number of jobs.
That's everybody ordering things online. Youmentioned sort of the larger economy, but
(06:06):
I wonder if you could detail abit why this matters, perhaps in more
depth, why does that loss andretail jobs matter to the larger local economy
in the tax base. Well,again, I mean, I think retail
is one of the most most importantsources of accessible jobs, jobs that are
available to New Yorkers without a collegedegree. As I said, it's an
(06:29):
incredibly diverse set of people working inthis industry. And you know, if
I had to say a broader pointabout what concerns me the most about New
York's economy right now, it's thateven while the city overall has mostly recovered
it, we're almost almost one hundredpercent back from the jobs loss during the
pandemic. But so many of theindustries that offer accessible jobs, not just
(06:56):
retail, but also hotels, manufacturing, other jobs that really are available to
people without a college degree have struggledto come back more. And so this
is why this is important. Weneed those those entry level pathways. We
need pathways for people without a collegecredential. And again, the concern is
that you know, retails down likethirty eight thousand jobs. You mentioned eleven
(07:20):
point one percent, but let's alsomention the number that's thirty eight thousand fewer
positions. There's a lot of peoplethat are unemployed right now because they haven't
been able to get those retail jobsagain. And so this really matters for
the economy. I mean, retailis important for more than just employment,
but it is such an important sourceof employment. And if clothing retailers,
(07:44):
if sporting goods stores, and departmentstores, all of those that are impacted
by e commerce don't come back again, we may have empty storefronts across the
city, but I think we're definitelygoing to have fewer people working in retail.
We're going to need new industries thatreplace these accessible jobs. We're going
to need to train people to getinto other areas of the economy so that
(08:05):
they can prosper. All of thesethings are really, you know, things
that we think the city is goingto have to deal with. Our guest
is Jonathan Bowles. He's the executivedirector of the Center for an Urban Future.
You can find out more at NYCFuture dot org. You're listening to
get connected on one oh six pointseven light FM. I'm Nina del Rio.
You know, there has been alsothis widening gap between high income,
(08:28):
wealthy New Yorkers and everybody else.At the same time, there have been
more protections at it in recent yearsfor New Yorkers, sick pay, vacation,
increased minimum wage that in some degreeyou would hope has made progress towards
creating a more equitable economy, butit also puts this this burden on small
business to some degree, right haveyou seen? I also think about rents,
(08:52):
you know, all these other thingsthat kind of are folding into this
at the same time. Right,Well, I will I will say something
about this. First of all,we're you know, a big believers and
in a lot of those measures thatyou mentioned that have really allowed for New
Yorkers to take home more wages,to kind of you know, increase their
earnings, to kind of have moreprotections in the work. All of those
(09:15):
things are critically important. We knowhow hard it is to get by,
especially in a city that is soexpensive and it's not building anywhere near enough
affordable housing. But I do thinkthat there are some questions about whether those
kind of measures have prompted small businessesand larger retail businesses to take steps that
(09:37):
have actually depressed employment. So,for instance, some we we noted in
our report that it's not just ecommerce but also automation. You know,
so many of your listeners probably havebeen to a CBS or a Dwayne Read,
or a home depot or a Targetor even like the US in the
quote, all of those stores thatI mentioned have really embraced the kind of
(10:01):
automated check out. Many others havedone that as well, McDonald's that have
kiosks you order from instead of aperson. So, you know, those
big retailers are hiring fewer people foreach of their stores now, and I
think that that's partly in a reactionto that. Well, real estate prices
are still high for those retailers andsmall businesses, you know, labor costs
(10:24):
are are higher than they were before, and there there are actually many of
them are getting less people in thedoor because of e commerce and other things.
And you know, for the DwayneReads and CBS is of the world,
people were ordering shampoo and soap andtoothpaste from their home as well.
You know, So so all ofthose kind of factors I think are saying
(10:45):
that some of these companies said,Okay, well, if we're going to
have to pay more wages and we'regonna have to do this and we still
have the high rents, then youknow, maybe we'll like invest in technology
that is going to cut some ofour costs. And so, you know,
automation and the automated checkout has meantthat they're hiring fewer people, and
so, you know, I thinkit's overall a good that we're paying people
(11:05):
a lot better wages and that shouldcontinue, but there can be some kind
of side effects of that, andI think it has depressed some of the
new hiring, especially in retail.There's not one way to fix this.
You did talk about training, youtalked about apprenticeships. But at the same
time, it makes me think,even though it's hard to change human behavior,
what should be done or could bedone to direct local customers to local
(11:28):
business. Isn't that part of thestory here? And you know, like,
first of all. You know,our recommendations for this retail report,
we're the one. We've got tofocus on the workers and figure out if
we can train them for other things. You know, we should be doubling
down on job training, workforce development. But absolutely I think there's a role
(11:50):
for city or government to figure out, you know, can we get more
people to do in store shopping rightnot just to go to do shopping,
you know, because online is notgoing to help so much with the employment
piece of this, but if wecan get more people to go into the
stores and so, you know,we've looked at some discount programs that the
city might consider. The UK duringthe first year of the pandemic, ran
(12:13):
a program that provided a subsidy anda discount cash back basically for people that
went into a restaurant on a Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday night in the
month of August. So they purposelytook one of the slowest months of the
year. They took the slowest daysof the week. They didn't say we're
(12:33):
going to give you a little cashif you'd go on a Friday night to
a restaurant. They said a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday night in the kind
of depths of August, you know, and so I think that you know,
while that was a program in twentytwenty four restaurants when so many restaurants
were struggling, you know, nowthe problem in New York is retail,
and can we create some kind ofa discount program that is going to get
(12:56):
people to kind of go in shotor go in store shopping. And maybe
if they go get a discount togo here or there, you know,
maybe it's a separate sales tax benefit. But if we can get them to
re discover in store shopping, theymight like it, you know, and
they might go back again. So, you know, at the very least,
(13:16):
those are some things that that wewant to do. I think also,
you know, we've got to reallyaccelerate the recovery of tourism because a
lot of our retailers, particularly inManhattan, they're more dependent upon tourists for
shopping than ever before. Tourists reallywere going to you know, Bergdorf Goodman
and Bloomingdale's and Macy's and so manyother stores in Manhattan that that office workers
(13:43):
are no longer going to during theweek, and and so we really reliant
on tourism from more of our shoppingdollars than we ever had been, but
we're not quite back to the levelof tourism from pre pandemic, especially those
international tourists that really do so muchof the big spending in New York.
So really accelerating tourism I think wouldhelp the retail sector as well. It's
(14:05):
such an interesting topic and you canfind out more on the website NYC Future
dot org. Jonathan Bowls is theexecutive director of the Center for an Urban
Future. Thank you for joining meI get Connected. Thanks for having me.
This has been get Connected with Ninadel Rio on one oh six point
seven Lightfm. The views and opinionsof our guests do not necessarily reflect the
(14:28):
views of the station. If youmissed any part of our show or want
to share it, visit our websitefor downloads and podcasts at one O six
seven lightfm dot com. Thanks forlistening.
Welcome to Get Connected with Nina DelRio, a weekly conversation about fitness,
health, and happenings in our communityon one oh six point seven light FM.
Good morning, and thanks for listeningto Get Connected. Given the number
of empty retail spaces across New YorkCity, it may not be a surprise
that retail jobs are down and thatthere are fewer of the most accessible jobs
(00:24):
in the city. What does thatmean, are those jobs coming back?
And what needs to happen to ensurethat New Yorkers are prepared for the jobs
the economy is creating. Our guestis Jonathan Bowles. He's the executive director
of the Center for an Urban Future. Thank you for being on the show.
Thanks for having me. The Centerfor an Urban Future is a think
tank that serves as a catalyst forsmall and sustainable policies to reduce inequality,
(00:49):
increase economic mobility, and grow theeconomy in New York City. You can
find out more on their website NYCfuture dot org. But I do wish,
Jonathan, you could break down alittle bit of what I just said.
What is the Center for an UrbanFuture, what do you do and
how did the organization get started?Yeah, well, thanks so mumuch for
having me. It's a it's areal pleasure. The Center for an Urban
(01:10):
Future is a think tank based inNew York City that's entirely focused on New
York's future. We're really all aboutcreating a more equitable economy in New York
and expanding economic opportunity for all NewYorkers. And we do it by publishing
reports that ideally get a lot ofattention, that are easily readable and understandable,
(01:33):
and we really put out achievable practicalideas for policy makers that could that
can make real change, that couldhelp people advance into the middle class and
lead better lives. What are someof the most significant policy proposals that the
Center for an Urban Future has helpedadvance in the last few years. You
know, we had a real successthis past year on a proposal to help
(01:59):
CUNE bring back more of the manymany adults in New York City that have
some college credits but never got theirdegree. We know how important a college
credential is in today's economy, andfor a lot of people, they got
really close to getting there, butthat piece of paper, that credential is
so important to be able to accessa better paying job, and the City
(02:23):
of New York, the City Councilspeaker, created this program called Quney Reconnect.
It's trying to get people and thereare roughly seven hundred thousand New York
City residents that have some college credits, but they never got their degree to
go back and this helps. Thisprogram helps them go back and get their
credential, which positions them to geta better paying job. So that was
(02:45):
one thing where we had a greatimpact on. We've written a lot about
apprenticeships, urging the city to expandapprenticeship programs not just in the building trades,
instruction, or manufacturing, but alsoin high wage of fields like tech
and finance and healthcare. We haven'talways had a lot of those kind of
apprenticeships in those emerging and growth areas, but there's such an opportunity, and
(03:12):
apprenticeships really give people from lower incomebackgrounds, people with how to college degree
a real leg up and an opportunityto get work experience and education that allows
them to get really good jobs.Those are a couple of examples, but
we're really all about helping people buildthe skills and get the educational credentials that
(03:32):
allow them to get ahead, toclimb into the middle class, and to
get access to better paying jobs.So retail jobs they are slightly up actually
across the country, which is goodnews, but not in New York.
Since February twenty twenty, retail jobsin New York City are down eleven percent.
(03:52):
Why so much decline here, It'sreally a great question. And you
know, first of all, letme say that retail store are so important
for a lot of reasons, right. They really kind of make neighborhoods unique
and vibrant. They bring people tothe streets, they support local entrepreneurs,
they often keep money in our neighborhoods, and sometimes they attract tourists. It's
(04:15):
a really important part of the city. But you know, as you mentioned
that, there's this other crucial partof retail, the jobs. And we
think this is important because there areroughly three hundred thousand retail jobs in New
York City, and about seventy percentof them, two hundred and fifteen thousand
of those jobs are held by NewYorkers of color. In many cases,
(04:36):
they're held by young people. Asignificant share of retail jobs are held by
people under the age of twenty fiveand we know there's there's higher unemployment rates
for younger New Yorkers, for teensand young adults. They are held by
folks without a college credential to alarge extent, and there's a lot of
people in New York that really havelimited opportunities because of the lack of a
(04:58):
college credential. But you're right,they are down still, and I think
what concerns us is that it's notjust that the retail jobs are down since
the beginning of the pandemic or thatthey haven't fully recovered, but that they're
actually down since twenty fifteen even more, and that really corresponds with the rise
of e commerce. So you knowwhat what has us so concerned is that
(05:21):
we're really worried that New York willnever get back to the level of retail
employment that we had they basically intwenty fourteen or twenty fifteen, but certainly
before the pandemic. And you know, people are shopping online, they're they're
they're they're buying all these things fromthe comfort or their home or their office,
and that's really affecting jobs. Ijust want to give a number for
(05:44):
a moment so people can understand whatwe're talking about here. So again,
across New York City, retail isdown eleven percent. The most decline if
you're looking at subsectors is in clothingin accessories twenty seven percent from February of
twenty twenty, which is a huge, huge, huge number of jobs.
That's everybody ordering things online. Youmentioned sort of the larger economy, but
(06:06):
I wonder if you could detail abit why this matters, perhaps in more
depth, why does that loss andretail jobs matter to the larger local economy
in the tax base. Well,again, I mean, I think retail
is one of the most most importantsources of accessible jobs, jobs that are
available to New Yorkers without a collegedegree. As I said, it's an
(06:29):
incredibly diverse set of people working inthis industry. And you know, if
I had to say a broader pointabout what concerns me the most about New
York's economy right now, it's thateven while the city overall has mostly recovered
it, we're almost almost one hundredpercent back from the jobs loss during the
pandemic. But so many of theindustries that offer accessible jobs, not just
(06:56):
retail, but also hotels, manufacturing, other jobs that really are available to
people without a college degree have struggledto come back more. And so this
is why this is important. Weneed those those entry level pathways. We
need pathways for people without a collegecredential. And again, the concern is
that you know, retails down likethirty eight thousand jobs. You mentioned eleven
(07:20):
point one percent, but let's alsomention the number that's thirty eight thousand fewer
positions. There's a lot of peoplethat are unemployed right now because they haven't
been able to get those retail jobsagain. And so this really matters for
the economy. I mean, retailis important for more than just employment,
but it is such an important sourceof employment. And if clothing retailers,
(07:44):
if sporting goods stores, and departmentstores, all of those that are impacted
by e commerce don't come back again, we may have empty storefronts across the
city, but I think we're definitelygoing to have fewer people working in retail.
We're going to need new industries thatreplace these accessible jobs. We're going
to need to train people to getinto other areas of the economy so that
(08:05):
they can prosper. All of thesethings are really, you know, things
that we think the city is goingto have to deal with. Our guest
is Jonathan Bowles. He's the executivedirector of the Center for an Urban Future.
You can find out more at NYCFuture dot org. You're listening to
get connected on one oh six pointseven light FM. I'm Nina del Rio.
You know, there has been alsothis widening gap between high income,
(08:28):
wealthy New Yorkers and everybody else.At the same time, there have been
more protections at it in recent yearsfor New Yorkers, sick pay, vacation,
increased minimum wage that in some degreeyou would hope has made progress towards
creating a more equitable economy, butit also puts this this burden on small
business to some degree, right haveyou seen? I also think about rents,
(08:52):
you know, all these other thingsthat kind of are folding into this
at the same time. Right,Well, I will I will say something
about this. First of all,we're you know, a big believers and
in a lot of those measures thatyou mentioned that have really allowed for New
Yorkers to take home more wages,to kind of you know, increase their
earnings, to kind of have moreprotections in the work. All of those
(09:15):
things are critically important. We knowhow hard it is to get by,
especially in a city that is soexpensive and it's not building anywhere near enough
affordable housing. But I do thinkthat there are some questions about whether those
kind of measures have prompted small businessesand larger retail businesses to take steps that
(09:37):
have actually depressed employment. So,for instance, some we we noted in
our report that it's not just ecommerce but also automation. You know,
so many of your listeners probably havebeen to a CBS or a Dwayne Read,
or a home depot or a Targetor even like the US in the
quote, all of those stores thatI mentioned have really embraced the kind of
(10:01):
automated check out. Many others havedone that as well, McDonald's that have
kiosks you order from instead of aperson. So, you know, those
big retailers are hiring fewer people foreach of their stores now, and I
think that that's partly in a reactionto that. Well, real estate prices
are still high for those retailers andsmall businesses, you know, labor costs
(10:24):
are are higher than they were before, and there there are actually many of
them are getting less people in thedoor because of e commerce and other things.
And you know, for the DwayneReads and CBS is of the world,
people were ordering shampoo and soap andtoothpaste from their home as well.
You know, So so all ofthose kind of factors I think are saying
(10:45):
that some of these companies said,Okay, well, if we're going to
have to pay more wages and we'regonna have to do this and we still
have the high rents, then youknow, maybe we'll like invest in technology
that is going to cut some ofour costs. And so, you know,
automation and the automated checkout has meantthat they're hiring fewer people, and
so, you know, I thinkit's overall a good that we're paying people
(11:05):
a lot better wages and that shouldcontinue, but there can be some kind
of side effects of that, andI think it has depressed some of the
new hiring, especially in retail.There's not one way to fix this.
You did talk about training, youtalked about apprenticeships. But at the same
time, it makes me think,even though it's hard to change human behavior,
what should be done or could bedone to direct local customers to local
(11:28):
business. Isn't that part of thestory here? And you know, like,
first of all. You know,our recommendations for this retail report,
we're the one. We've got tofocus on the workers and figure out if
we can train them for other things. You know, we should be doubling
down on job training, workforce development. But absolutely I think there's a role
(11:50):
for city or government to figure out, you know, can we get more
people to do in store shopping rightnot just to go to do shopping,
you know, because online is notgoing to help so much with the employment
piece of this, but if wecan get more people to go into the
stores and so, you know,we've looked at some discount programs that the
city might consider. The UK duringthe first year of the pandemic, ran
(12:13):
a program that provided a subsidy anda discount cash back basically for people that
went into a restaurant on a Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday night in the
month of August. So they purposelytook one of the slowest months of the
year. They took the slowest daysof the week. They didn't say we're
(12:33):
going to give you a little cashif you'd go on a Friday night to
a restaurant. They said a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday night in the kind
of depths of August, you know, and so I think that you know,
while that was a program in twentytwenty four restaurants when so many restaurants
were struggling, you know, nowthe problem in New York is retail,
and can we create some kind ofa discount program that is going to get
(12:56):
people to kind of go in shotor go in store shopping. And maybe
if they go get a discount togo here or there, you know,
maybe it's a separate sales tax benefit. But if we can get them to
re discover in store shopping, theymight like it, you know, and
they might go back again. So, you know, at the very least,
(13:16):
those are some things that that wewant to do. I think also,
you know, we've got to reallyaccelerate the recovery of tourism because a
lot of our retailers, particularly inManhattan, they're more dependent upon tourists for
shopping than ever before. Tourists reallywere going to you know, Bergdorf Goodman
and Bloomingdale's and Macy's and so manyother stores in Manhattan that that office workers
(13:43):
are no longer going to during theweek, and and so we really reliant
on tourism from more of our shoppingdollars than we ever had been, but
we're not quite back to the levelof tourism from pre pandemic, especially those
international tourists that really do so muchof the big spending in New York.
So really accelerating tourism I think wouldhelp the retail sector as well. It's
(14:05):
such an interesting topic and you canfind out more on the website NYC Future
dot org. Jonathan Bowls is theexecutive director of the Center for an Urban
Future. Thank you for joining meI get Connected. Thanks for having me.
This has been get Connected with Ninadel Rio on one oh six point
seven Lightfm. The views and opinionsof our guests do not necessarily reflect the
(14:28):
views of the station. If youmissed any part of our show or want
to share it, visit our websitefor downloads and podcasts at one O six
seven lightfm dot com. Thanks forlistening.
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