Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, so the beat and Swedish meatballs not dim
sum in. I guess in Sweden tomorrow when they sit
down to meet. Josh Bernbaum joins US deputy director at
the Foundation for Dependent Democracies. Do you expect much to
come from these talks, these initial talks between us in
the Chinese. I guess we're talking trade. We don't really
(00:21):
know for sure.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Well, I think the most important part is that the
relations are starting to thaw.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
A little bit.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
And I would expect that any deal that takes place
between China and the United States is going to take
a long time and a lot of details are going
to need to get worked out. But the first step
is meeting. And that's that's a big one.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Okay, Just China have that kind of time, because we're
seeing a lot of reports about, you know what a
teeter's position that their economy is in right now. They're
closing down factories, they're sending people home who are not working.
I would guess that this this whole trade war thing
is quite at least at this point, there's a lot
tough around them than it is on us.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
It absolutely is. The urgency on their side must be tremendous,
and that gives the United States tremendous leverage in those negotiations.
But there's also a lot that needs to change. At
the base of the negotiations is the need for China
to rebalance its economy away from the state and towards consumers.
And that's a difficult bask for a Chinese communist party
that's built its country around supporting the state.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
Yeah, that's for sure. I guess the other part of
it this is going to be very, very difficult from
our point of view, is trust. We don't have a
lot of trust in China. They've made deals before and
they generally break the deal right after they make the deal.
So they can promise all they want about not stealing
intellectual property and leveling the playing field, but that doesn't
mean that's going to happen.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
That's absolutely right, and one thing that we see from
this administration is that they're willing to switch on a
dime as well. So I think that there is a
situation where the trust needs to be built with over time,
and if China doesn't hold up, it's end of the bargain.
I imagine TARS will go right back into place.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Josh what would be a reasonable expectation what do you
think we should look to try to accomplish with the Chinese.
We're probably never going to get to the point, are
we where we are on equal footing, where it's a
level playing completely level playing field, where China is importing
as much from us as we're importing from them, or
in your mind, is that a reasonable goal to try
to achieve.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
I'm not sure that that's the end state that we're
ever going to get to, and it's certainly not where
we're going in the negotiations to get to a total
balance trade. The problem is that China's structured right now
so that it must export in order to survive, and
that's got to change structurally for the Chinese economy. As
Scott Best, the Treasury Secretary, said, China needs that as
(02:45):
much as we do. Their economy is simply not sustainable,
and they're going to need to find a pathway to
a more sustainable and balanced growth. In the short term,
I expect that to be that the trade comes into
greater balance, but it's not going to be fully balanced
for probably a decade.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Yeah, I wouldn't think so, Okay, And a quick thought
if you would on the deal with the United Kingdom.
You know, we had a pretty even trade partner with
the United Kingdom to begin When it sounds like the
biggest news that seems to be concerning US automakers is
the deal to allow one hundred thousand UK vehicles into
this country without paying an additional terror.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Well, I think that UK is a real strong economic
partner and has been for decades, and I think it's important.
The big picture here is that getting greater alliance with
partners like the UK with India allows us to have
better leverage against countries like China, and so it's important
that those deals are happening. With respect to specific industries,
(03:42):
there's always going to be benefits and harms, but we
are strong proponents of free trade and to the extent
that we can support an ally, we should be doing that,
all right.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Josh, thanks for your time today. Appreciate it. Deputy Director
at the Foundation for Dependent Democracies, Josh Beerenbaum, it is
seven to twenty six
All right, so the beat and Swedish meatballs not dim
sum in. I guess in Sweden tomorrow when they sit
down to meet. Josh Bernbaum joins US deputy director at
the Foundation for Dependent Democracies. Do you expect much to
come from these talks, these initial talks between us in
the Chinese. I guess we're talking trade. We don't really
(00:21):
know for sure.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Well, I think the most important part is that the
relations are starting to thaw.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
A little bit.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
And I would expect that any deal that takes place
between China and the United States is going to take
a long time and a lot of details are going
to need to get worked out. But the first step
is meeting. And that's that's a big one.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Okay, Just China have that kind of time, because we're
seeing a lot of reports about, you know what a
teeter's position that their economy is in right now. They're
closing down factories, they're sending people home who are not working.
I would guess that this this whole trade war thing
is quite at least at this point, there's a lot
tough around them than it is on us.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
It absolutely is. The urgency on their side must be tremendous,
and that gives the United States tremendous leverage in those negotiations.
But there's also a lot that needs to change. At
the base of the negotiations is the need for China
to rebalance its economy away from the state and towards consumers.
And that's a difficult bask for a Chinese communist party
that's built its country around supporting the state.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
Yeah, that's for sure. I guess the other part of
it this is going to be very, very difficult from
our point of view, is trust. We don't have a
lot of trust in China. They've made deals before and
they generally break the deal right after they make the deal.
So they can promise all they want about not stealing
intellectual property and leveling the playing field, but that doesn't
mean that's going to happen.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
That's absolutely right, and one thing that we see from
this administration is that they're willing to switch on a
dime as well. So I think that there is a
situation where the trust needs to be built with over time,
and if China doesn't hold up, it's end of the bargain.
I imagine TARS will go right back into place.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Josh what would be a reasonable expectation what do you
think we should look to try to accomplish with the Chinese.
We're probably never going to get to the point, are
we where we are on equal footing, where it's a
level playing completely level playing field, where China is importing
as much from us as we're importing from them, or
in your mind, is that a reasonable goal to try
to achieve.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
I'm not sure that that's the end state that we're
ever going to get to, and it's certainly not where
we're going in the negotiations to get to a total
balance trade. The problem is that China's structured right now
so that it must export in order to survive, and
that's got to change structurally for the Chinese economy. As
Scott Best, the Treasury Secretary, said, China needs that as
(02:45):
much as we do. Their economy is simply not sustainable,
and they're going to need to find a pathway to
a more sustainable and balanced growth. In the short term,
I expect that to be that the trade comes into
greater balance, but it's not going to be fully balanced
for probably a decade.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Yeah, I wouldn't think so, Okay, And a quick thought
if you would on the deal with the United Kingdom.
You know, we had a pretty even trade partner with
the United Kingdom to begin When it sounds like the
biggest news that seems to be concerning US automakers is
the deal to allow one hundred thousand UK vehicles into
this country without paying an additional terror.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Well, I think that UK is a real strong economic
partner and has been for decades, and I think it's important.
The big picture here is that getting greater alliance with
partners like the UK with India allows us to have
better leverage against countries like China, and so it's important
that those deals are happening. With respect to specific industries,
(03:42):
there's always going to be benefits and harms, but we
are strong proponents of free trade and to the extent
that we can support an ally, we should be doing that,
all right.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Josh, thanks for your time today. Appreciate it. Deputy Director
at the Foundation for Dependent Democracies, Josh Beerenbaum, it is
seven to twenty six
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