Luke Macias -Political Consultant Joins Houston Morning News

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The battleground states. Luke Massias joins this political consultant, and
you can look at half a dozen polls, Luke, and
they all say something different about what's going on in
the battleground states. We know it's going to be tight,
that's why they're battleground states. But we also know that
the pollsters have a tendency to underestimate Donald Trump's support,
don't they.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
They do, they do it. It's pretty common. There's only
a handful that don't have that track record. But even
like you said, Fox News, Quinnipiac, many of these other
states often underestimate the support that Donald Trump has.

Speaker 3 (00:34):
How does that happen? I mean, I know that a
lot of Trump supporters just refused to answer polls. I
know that they weight the polls, but what else does
it play here? Are they only doing it in certain
enclays where they know that they're going to have the
kind of response they get.

Speaker 2 (00:50):
The most common mistake and intentional mistake I would say
that they make, is that they pull registered voters. You'll
see these polls come out that are are the registered
voter polls, and they basically know that there's twenty five
percent of this group that have no chance of actually
participating the electum, but they pull them anyways. And it

(01:10):
shouldn't surprise anybody that people who are registered to vote
but have no intention of really participating don't tend to
be that engaged and often lean Democratic. And so that's
one way of easily skewing the numbers. The other aspect
is that a lot of voters don't want to participate
in polls or do think that the polls are skewed.
There's a group called the Trafalgar Group, and they were

(01:32):
the most accurate. They're the one group that consistently said
that Donald Trump was going to win in twenty sixteen.
Twenty won and that pollster just last night release polls
that showed Donald Trump up in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And
if he wins Pennsylvania Wisconsin, he will be the next
president of the United States. And so you do see
some of these groups that are actually a little bit

(01:55):
a little bit better at predicting the future continuing to
give Donald Trump an edge in many of the battle
ground states.

Speaker 3 (02:00):
Also, I'm concerned when the polls are done. You know,
they release them, but we don't know when they were done.
They don't always tell you that you have fine print.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
They don't. Sometimes it was done quite a while ago.
Sometimes they'll release them and then you look and you realize, oh, wait,
this poll was two weeks old, and it was done
over a week long period of time, and three weeks
is an eternity in the time of polling, things will
change drastically. In late June, when Joe Biden was still
in the ticket, of course, Trump was pulling incredibly well,

(02:34):
and then Kamala got her a little bump with excitement,
and so you have to really recognize when it was
taken what the snapshot is. That's deff is something to
take in consideration.

Speaker 1 (02:44):
You mentioned voter enthusiasm. Certainly it was very low for
Democrats with Joe Biden. Came back up a little bit
with Kamala Harris. Do you think that's falling back again?

Speaker 2 (02:53):
I do think that her energy is it came back
up with Democrats. So Democrats, I'm excited about Kamala Harris's election. Okay,
ultimately and and.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
So, uh, that's okay, somebody's trying to get your attention.

Speaker 2 (03:11):
Well, my kids just woke up. Sorry guys, uh.

Speaker 1 (03:19):
Kids, Hey, you know what, Luke, go ahead and take
care of your kids. It sounds like somebody wants some
breakfast in a hug, so have a great day and
thanks for joining us. Luke Massia's political consultant at six
twenty six