October 19, 2025 • 44 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You worked hard for your money, but do you know
how to make it work hard for you. You need
a team with experience, vigilance, and a strategy to help
you live the retirement you deserve. Find your financial safe
haven with Haven Financial Group. Today you're listening to the
new and improved Haven Financial Group Radio Show, where we
bring you comprehensive weekly financial wisdom from the professionals. It's
(00:23):
all about helping you solve retirement problems so you can
make your nest egg last. Your tune to the Haven
Financial Group Radio Show with your host, Larry Kolvig and
Kim Karrigan your guides to weekly retirement confidence. If you're
interested in protecting and growing what you have, let us
be your financial safe haven. The phone lines are always
(00:43):
open at six point two five four eighty four hundred.
Now get your financial questions ready because the Haven Financial
Group Radio Show starts now.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Good morning, and welcome to the Haven Financial Group Radio Show.
I'm Larry Kolvig, Founder and CEO of the Haven Financial Group.
Feel free to give us a call at six one
two five zero four eighty four hundred or visit us
online at Havenfinancialgroup dot com. Check out our calendar of events,
educational classes, all kinds of great retirement tools. Kim, good
(01:16):
to be with you. We've got a lot to talk
about today.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Great to be with you as well. Here we are
in the middle of October already, My goodness. Gracious you
guys starting your holiday shopping? Is your wife doing that?
Speaker 2 (01:27):
I hope not. I like to celebrate Thanksgiving first, give
thanks and then I fight her on decorating before Thanksgiving.
So it's an uphill battle that I fight every year.
But I think I lost the battle last year.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
I was gonna say, a good marriage. Remember, it's compromise.
Whatever she'd like, that's what you do.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Yeah, in almost thirty years, I figured that out.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Well.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
It's good to have Kyle Thomas with us this week,
and of course he's a certified financial planner with the
Haven Financial Group. Kyle. Always good to have you.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Yeah, thank you so much for having me. I'm happy
to be back.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Absolutely, we're going to be talking about preparing for retirement
for higher inflation. You know, while we watch sort of
this inflation has been softening a little bit, it certainly
is not gone and we all know that. I think
every time we, you know, go to the gas pump
or we go to the grocery store. We are still
certainly seeing the effects. So we want to talk a
(02:23):
little bit about preparing for your retirement and still dealing
with these issues. When it comes to inflation, we'll talk
about the twenty twenty five August inflation numbers and what
they mean to you as a retiree or someone who's
thinking about retirement. Higher inflation and social Security, believe it
or not, they certainly have something to do with one another.
And we'll have a chat about that higher inflation and
(02:45):
retirement portfolio construction. That's sort of what this whole show
is about. It's about how to put together this portfolio
that protects you from higher inflation. And then finally, mistakes
to avoid in an inflationary period, and certainly there are
a number of those out there, but they can be
avoided if you've got a partner like the folks that
(03:07):
Haven Financial Group. If you hear anything this morning that
really sort of rings true for you, give the folks
that Haven Financial Group a call six one two five
zero four eighty four hundred inflation. Larry, Yes, I guess
you know. One of the tough things is that you
(03:27):
know inflation is happening. Now, it's going to happen again.
We're going to always see this. So how in the
world do you help your partners prepare for inflation when
it comes to retirement.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Well, there's no doubt inflation's cool from its peak, but
it remains a key swing factor for household budgets, especially
retirees that are on a most fixed income, if you will,
So it really does matter. Incidentally, the new cost of
living adjustment, which we'll talk about in Social Security, will
be coming out this month, but it does affect people's budgets.
(04:02):
It does affects those security all these things that we're
going to talk about on today's show. But we really
you said it very well. Inflation comes and it goes,
just like the market goes up and it goes down.
I mean, it's just it's very obvious, but when we
live in the moment, it seems to really it feels
like it affects us more. So, you know, when we
sit down with folks, we stress having you know, a
(04:24):
good idea of what your budget, let's factor in inflation.
We've done it for years and our as we build
out plans for folks that are you know, whether they're younger,
they're looking to retire their five years or in retirement.
We go through the same exact process every single time,
and I get a kick out of sometimes some advisors
they don't factor in inflation, which to me doesn't make
(04:45):
any sense at all, because it really does change things
drastically as it relates to money, the purchasing power of
the dollar and how long those retirement dollars are going
to last. So again, it's important to address the issue.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
How do you go about factoring that in, Kyle, I mean,
you know, you don't know what those swings of inflation
might look like. So when you're putting together someone's portfolio,
tell me a little bit about the steps that you
take to try to protect those portfolios from future inflation.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Yeah, that's a great question.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
And trying to guess what inflation is going to be
is just as good of a guess as what the
stock market's going to be, right. So that's why we
just we have thousands of different trials that we run, essentially,
and we pick a base inflation rate that is conservative
in general. Right, it's a little higher than what we
(05:40):
would expect it to be going forward, just because we
want that conservative aspect of, well, what if inflation ends
up actually being worse than what we are actually expecting.
So we've been trending towards doing about a three percent
inflation rate inside of our models now when we're planning
out for thirty forty years of retirement for our clients.
(06:04):
And that has a big impact over time because just
like your returns can compound, inflation can compound, and it
has a huge effect and eats away at your earnings
over time because a lot of people don't think about
inflation as an expense. I mean, it really is an expense.
If you get a six percent return but inflation is
(06:25):
three percent, your real return is actually three percent.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
You only made three percent.
Speaker 4 (06:29):
That year if you look at what that dollar actually
does for you. So if you made three percent and
inflation three percent, you actually kind of broke even for
the year. So that's why it's it's really important to
understand what inflation is and plan for it for a
long extended period of time because there are going to
be years where it can go up to eight or
(06:51):
nine percent like it did just a few years ago,
and we want to be prepared for all of those situations.
So that's why we send thousands of different trials and
to our model, and all these trials have different inflation assumptions.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Okay, so let's take a look. As we move forward,
and as Larry was saying, we're going to talk about
how it affects social security, and we're going to talk
about some of the mistakes you might make. But before
we do so, let's just sort of get a real
solid idea of where we are right now. So let's
look back at August numbers. We're always about a month
and a half, you know, reporting, So let's look at
(07:26):
August numbers and talk about where the inflation numbers were then,
and maybe that can give us a good basis for
the rest of the conversation.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
Yeah, so we're it's weird because these numbers always feel
kind of delayed, but it's what it's always delayed one month.
So we're we're looking at August numbers right now, and
the headline inflation is still above what the FED is
targeting at two percent. So it's still above that mark,
and we've been above that mark for.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
A few years now.
Speaker 4 (07:57):
And that's also why the FED hasn'tcessarily been lowering rates,
because they've been trying to get us to that two percent.
But the good news is we are trending downwards, so
we're getting closer to that mark, and we could potentially
even see rate cuts before we even hit that mark.
So that's that's the good news because we all want
those rates to come down because it creates more money
(08:20):
in our pockets and creates more money for the economy
as well. So, yes, inflation is trending in the right direction.
So that's what we all want because we do want
some inflation, but we don't want it to be what
it has been in these last few years.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
Sure, you know, when you look back on twenty twenty five,
I really believe that. You know, if you were to
choose a word to describe the economy, it may not
necessarily be inflation. It's going to be uncertainty. I think
there's been just so much uncertainty out there. Part of
that related to tariffs. How might that affect inflation?
Speaker 4 (08:56):
Well, the tariffs have a huge, huge impact on potential inflation.
Because if I'm actually going to take a step back
to and just talk about tariffs for a second, because
tariffs aren't actually attacks on a country, it's attacks on
the company importing those goods into this country, so those
(09:20):
companies could then increase their prices to pay for whatever
tariffs their pain. So that right there could be a
cause for inflation. You know, hopefully that doesn't happen. I
don't think these tariffs are designed to be long term,
and I know there's a whole thing going on with
China that just kind of rows up. But the tariffs
(09:43):
can provide inflationary pressures for the US consumer. We'll see
what that actually does. But tariffs itself is a thing.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
But also.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
Getting all these goods into the US and not having
legs within supply and shipping and all of that stuff.
That's something else that we just want to be on
the lookout for too, because along with those tariffs came
a lot of delays in things, and that caused prices
to go up itself as well.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
Yeah, let's talk a little bit. You mentioned it a bit.
Lower interest rates. Obviously, we've had a cut since these numbers,
these August numbers came out. We anticipate we could maybe
have a quarter cut again, and for that matter, maybe
two more cuts before the year is out. What kind
of impact might that have on retirees as it relates
to inflation.
Speaker 4 (10:38):
Well, in short answer, it allows for people to have
more money in their pockets if they're going out to
buy stuff or finance things. They're not paying as high
of an interest rate, So it makes people want to
spend more money in the economy, which is good for
(10:58):
the economy. It's good for businesses, it's good for everyone
because the borrowing rate to purchase these things is a
lot lower, and a lot of companies themselves are on
floating rate debt schedules, so when their interest rates are lower,
their balance sheets look better, which is which is better
(11:19):
for the consumer as well.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
So Kevin ahead, well, I just want to ask you
real quickly here. How does it affect the retirees investments?
Speaker 4 (11:28):
Yeah, so the investments themselves. We could have some lower
interest rates on the bond side of the portfolio, so
that's one thing to keep in mind because the return
on that part of your portfolio could also be lower.
A positive to that is that stocks tend to do
well when interest rates get lowered, so we could have
(11:49):
a counteracting there with bonds yielding going lower, but stock
appreciation potentially going higher as well. And it's not guaranteed
by any means, because we all know the stock market
can do anything any single day, but they're just with
the bonds potentially have been a lower yield, we do
have the potential for stock style perform as well.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
We're talking about inflation and how it could and does
impact retirees portfolios. We're going to move on to talk
about social security here in just a moment. We're just
sort of claiming the groundwork for this conversation. Looking at
August inflation numbers still above the FEDS two percent target.
We've been above the FEDS two percent target for a
(12:35):
number of years, so we want to continue this conversation
on the other side. Six poet two five zero four
eight four zero zero. That's how you get hold of
the folks here at Haven Financial Group. Give them a call,
let them know that you've heard us here on the radio.
You'd like to have your portfolio maybe tested to see
if you're prepared for this continued inflation. When we come
(12:55):
back again, we're going to talk about inflation and social security.
This is the Haven Financial Reprecation.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Don't go too far. We're gathering more important insights and
retirement pays Devin the Haven Financial Group Radio show. We'll
be right back. Stick around, you've got questions, we got answers.
Your tune to the Haven Financial Group Radio Show with
your host Larry Kolvig and Kim Karrigan. Now back to
(13:20):
the show.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Good morning once again, and welcome to the Haven Financial
Group Radio Show. I'm Larry Kolvig, founder and CEO of
the Haven Financial Group, celebrating ten years this year. I
don't know where those ten years went. And we have
also Kyle Thomas with US certified financial Planner on the
Haven Investment Team talking about inflation, how it affects retirees, budgets,
(13:42):
social Security, and a variety of other things today on
the show. So great to be with you. If you
have any questions, feel free to give us a call
at six one two five zero four eighty four hundred
or visit us online at Havenfinancialgroup dot com. I want
to point out we have a new education center in
our office. We're going to utilize it. We've got some
great classes coming up. We're going to have because it
(14:05):
was such high demand. We're going to have the local
police Department fraud Prevention because we had numerous people that
couldn't attend because the classes were so full. I know
my wife who's the office manager, just I think our
CPA Lance Larson is going to do a big, beautiful
bill class. So we really are big into education, you
(14:26):
know that, Kim, And I think we also have something
about wine, women in business or investments a class, so
a variety of these classes in the public sector and
also in our office. We're really big on education with
our current clients and any potential existing clients that may
come our way. So that's where it really starts, is
the education piece.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Yeah, And to learn more about those educational group settings,
it's Havenfinancialgroup dot com. Be sure you check it out
see where they are going to be in the area
or if they're going to be right there at the
educational center at the Haven find Financial Group headquarters. And
we're talking about inflation and how it impacts retirees. You know, Larry,
(15:07):
I realize inflation is not really a sexy conversation, but boy,
it affects everybody. It really really does, and retirees need
to be prepared for it. I don't know that a
lot of people realize how much inflation can affect their
social security. I think they probably in their minds think, well,
I draw my Social Security and that's pretty well set.
I'm in good shape there, but that's not necessarily the.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Case, not necessarily the case at all. I mean October
this is the month they come out with the announcement
of what the increase is going to be for Social Security,
which isn't a guarantee. Sometimes people think it's a guarantee
we're going to get a boost every single year, and
there have been years like twenty ten and twenty fifteen
where there was not any increases. So the date is
October twenty fourth, they'll come out with the announcement. What
(15:52):
I've been hearing is it's anywhere between two and three percent.
We'll see that will adjust the monthly income payments that
people are receiving from Social Security, and social Security is
the number one income stream for retired Americans. It's why
we teach Social Security and tax class. We just taught
a couple of them just this week and actually Hastings
(16:13):
and we have some more next week. So again we
encourage people to make educated decisions on when to turn
on Social Security. Why it is a big deal. Delaying
the bigger the check. Obviously, the longer you delay, the
bigger the check. But for some people, that isn't the
right decision. So if you're listening and you're questioning when
(16:34):
you should take social Security, why don't you come out
and visit with us. We'll run a social Security report
for you and we'll walk you through why it maybe
makes sense or why it doesn't make sense, and if
you're a married couple, why it should be a we
decision not a me decision. And I'll tell you this,
seventy percent of Americans turn it on right away at
age sixty two. That's our very high percentage, only one
(16:56):
to two percent way till age seventy. So that tells
me there's a lot lack of education when it comes
to making this very important decision.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
Kyle Thomas is with us as well. He's a certified
financial planner with Haven Financial Group. Kyle Larry just mentioned
that those cola increases aren't always guaranteed, So what you know,
what what is a retiree to do if you're depending
on that increase and maybe it doesn't come about.
Speaker 4 (17:25):
Yeah, Well, that that's where it all comes back to
our financial plan because from day one, when our clients
meet with us, we put together that plan and we
make sure that we're going to be set, you know,
for all all these different road bumps. So hopefully if
(17:47):
there is no cost of living adjustment on Social Security
and and that does impact your plan, hopefully there's other
sources or other strategies that we can you know, pull
levers on to make sure that we get the cash
flow that we need to live our lives and it
doesn't affect us, you know, horribly to where we can't.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
So there's other strategies that you that you can look
at too.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
So we have our investments right, well, maybe we need
to change what accounts we're pulling from, uh in coordination
with our taxes as well, and then maybe we let
our more aggressive account, you know, try to grow more
so in this year where we don't get that cost
of living adjustment and we pull from the other account
(18:30):
that's maybe a little more stable or something like that.
But there's there's different strategies that we can pull Because
all our investments are invested accordingly to the type of
account that they are. We don't just have a blanket
investment lineup for all of our different accounts. So that
gives us flexibility, especially in times of when they're say,
isn't a cost of living adjustment for our social security
(18:53):
gives us more options to be able to live our
lifestyle that that we were planning on, and then we're
not in our hands, aren't tied to just one stretch?
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Can I go back to I want to go back
to Medicare for just a second here, and how inflation
impacts Medicare And you know, in some situations, I guess
if that cost goes up, a lot of people are
hoping that COLA, that cost of living adjustment comes along
with it. What if it doesn't, Medicare still we can
see that go up in these inflationary times.
Speaker 4 (19:23):
Correct, Yes, we certainly can, and that the inflation number
on Medicare within our analysis is actually higher as well,
So we kind of base that at about a five
point eight percent inflation number every single year, whereas I
mentioned before, our base inflation number is about three percent
(19:45):
for everything else. So we're already accounting for a higher
medical expense inflation number, which it historically has always you know,
been that way. And then we do expect that these
my medical expenses are going to get higher over these
next few years as well, with some of the tax
(20:07):
changes and everything that were going on. So it's important
to make sure that you're accounting for that as well,
on top of whatever that base inflation amount is, because
historically that is always higher than the core inflation.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Kam, it's worth mentioning if I could add, just this
week past week, open enrollment just started for Medicare. There's
a lot of major changes with a lot of the
healthcare providers. So if you're listing and you have questions
or you're worried, and you maybe heard this through the
pipeline that you know they're not going to be covering
these doctors or these medical these prescription drugs. I will
(20:44):
tell you, Glynn and Isabella, we have access to all
the companies. We help a lot of people get scheduled
with them. Have a partner in your corner in all
of these retirement areas. I can tell you what you
don't pay anymore to have somebody work for you to
work backward from what company makes the most sense. And
I can tell you, and we've talked every week about
(21:05):
how people underestimate healthcare and Medicare, we factored into the
overall planning process. So it is open enrollment. You don't
want to miss an opportunity and I can't stress enough
the coordination of all of these retirement topics. You know,
it's also fourth quarter we're looking at Wroth conversions. But
some of these things there can be a real trickle
(21:26):
down or a piggyback effect if you don't do it right.
You know, just recently, we have had somebody in that
a couple of years ago, their advisor said it was
a great idea to do at Ira to Wroth conversion
a big, large amount, only to find out that it
affected his medicare premiums because he made too much money
and it ended up costing him a lot of money
(21:46):
by making the wrong decision. Taxes are relevant, so the
coordination between medicare, the insurance, the investments, the taxes, they're
all in a related and they really should be working together,
and so often they're working apart from each other rather
than working together. So I can't stress enough the coordination
(22:07):
of all these different retirement topics, not because it's so
fun and exciting to talk about all this stuff, but
it can really make a difference between you spending too much,
spending too little, not paying any more in taxes than
you have to. It's just extremely important and those working years.
You know, accumulation years are one thing, but retirement is
(22:29):
a different season of life. And have a partner in
your corner that you can go to. We're having these
meetings fourth quarter discussing so we don't miss opportunities. I
call them unforced errors or missed opportunities that can really
benefit people. But you have to start with the conversation.
And if you're not getting the attention or having the conversations,
(22:51):
I'm guessing you're missing opportunities.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
So do you need a partner when it comes to
putting together your retirement portfolio, not just during these implutionary times,
but just because you need a partner to put this together.
You heard Larry say, a partner who coordinates all different
facets of your retirement portfolio. Give the folks at Haven
Financial Group a call six one two five zero four
(23:15):
eighty four hundred and tell them you heard us here
on the radio. You'd like to set up an appointment,
come in and talk about your portfolio. Maybe you have
one and you need it tested when you need it
looked over. Maybe you're you know your approaching retirement, you
don't have one yet you need to put one together.
Either way, they would love to chat with you at
six one two five zero four eight four zero zero.
(23:38):
Up next, we're going to talk about constructing a portfolio
and retirement and how that may change or have to
be adapted during these high inflationary times. This is the
Haven Financial Group Radio Show.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Ready to find your financial safe haven. Your dream retirement
is in reach. Don't go away, The Haven Financial Group
Radio Show will be right back. Are you worried that
your financial strategy might be missing something, Well, you're in
the right place. Larry Kolvig is back and ready to
help you find your financial safe haven.
Speaker 2 (24:12):
Welcome back listeners. My name is Larry kolvic Founder and
CEO of the Haven Financial Group, and you're listening to
the Haven Financial Group Radio Show again. Thanks for listening.
We're talking inflation, we're talking all kinds of retirement topics.
Every week we do discuss these things and the importance
of making good retirement decisions, and it really starts with
the education and it starts with the conversation. So if
(24:34):
you're hearing something today, feel free to give us a
call at six one two five zero four eighty four
hundred or visit us online Havenfinancialgroup dot com. And I said, Kim,
a takeaway from that last segment. If you're listening, so
many times people associate this with all they're only talking
to the real wealthy or the affluent or the rich people.
(24:55):
It couldn't be further from the truth. So whether your
situation is complex or simple, or you have very very
little or a lot, this applies to you. So don't
back yourself in the corner. So oftentimes, of all the
years that I've done this, people are embarrassed. People come
in and they think that we're going to try to
(25:16):
sell them something. We're looking at an overall plan. Our
job isn't to sell you anything. It's too are you
in the right place at the right time, are you
making are you being a good steward of your money,
and are you making good decisions? That's really what it's
all about.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
Kyle Thomas is with us as well. He's a certified
financial planner with Haven Financial Group. Larry all Well said,
let's talk a little bit about constructing a portfolio during
these inflationary times. So Kyle, let's start with allocations. You know,
if you are going to set down and you're going
to start to put this together, give us a sense
(25:52):
of how you go about it.
Speaker 4 (25:54):
And the first thing that goes into figuring out an
asset allocation for someone is just figuring out their risk profile.
And regardless of what type of environment we're in economically
or the stock market, the risk profile shouldn't really change
because your appetite for risks shouldn't really be changing all
that much, especially people who are retired or in that
(26:16):
retirement phase or close to it, because what we don't
want volatility. We don't want to be trying to chase
what the market's doing or try to get ahead of it,
because history shows us that it's almost impossible to do that.
So we want to pick a risk profile that fits
us and what we're comfortable with and what we're going
(26:37):
to stick with long term, and that could be anywhere
from eighty percent stocks to twenty percent stocks. It all
depends on whatever your comfortability is and what you're able
to we're able to sleep at night with, right, So
your need, willingness and ability to take risk is kind
of how we look at that and decide on a
(26:58):
risk profile for you.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
So once we have.
Speaker 4 (27:01):
That, you know, then it then it gets kind of
put into our hands of building a portfolio around that
risk profile and adding different types of investments within each
of those stocks and bonds categories to make sure that
we are our risk is mitigated and that we are
allocated to investments that can be maximized during times of
(27:24):
higher inflation. And naturally our portfolios are are defensive in
a higher inflation type of environment. So that's that's a
good start right there. And and you know, especially over
these last few years, these portfolios have really done well
with this higher inflation.
Speaker 3 (27:43):
Mm hmm. You talk about, you know, depending on your
risk tolerance putting things in stocks and investments, but I'm
assuming that you also tell your clients that they should
have a certain amount of cash on hand.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
Yeah, I'll start with this one because you know, I've
said it on the show many times over the years
that we want to see good liquidity, good liquidity, access
to cash in those money market CDs, high interest savings
accounts not as high of interest now because rates have
come down a little bit, but having fifty to one
hundred grand in a cash position where you can get
(28:20):
access to it, and you might be listening to a
fifty to one hundred grand why so much? Because you
want options, you know, there's always a rainy day fund.
There's always something that comes up, or something that needs
the air conditioner, something needs to be fixed, the grandkids' birthdays,
and the market's down. We don't want to tap into that,
so we want to see a good cash position, so
(28:41):
we want a cash buffer. Kyle was mentioning, you know
the building these portfolio models. You know, many would say
we probably are a little bit more conservative than maybe
some are. Now that doesn't mean we have to be conservative.
Our job isn't to steer in anybody in any direction
of more risk or less risk. It's what risk profile
(29:01):
are you comfortable with? What's your willingness for risk and
ability to take risks and the need to take risk.
We have some clients that don't have any risk. We
have some that have one hundred percent stocks. And the
problem is most people are not aware of how their positioned,
and then their response is when the markets down or bad,
(29:23):
oh my goodness, I'm ready to jump off a cliff. Well,
that means you weren't in the right spot to begin with.
So it's first of all, getting position where you should be,
having an awareness and understanding stress tests that portfolio. To
avoid these oh my goodness types of situation. And then
never forget that tax awareness is so very important. You
(29:44):
don't have to be the tax expert, but an awareness
of understanding of why you're doing what you're doing. And again,
if you're not having these conversations, though, guess what, you
probably have a big question mark on your face, going,
I don't know if I'm doing it right or if
I'm not doing it right. And that's why we truly
believe that retirement in general is more than a meeting
(30:08):
once or twice a year for forty five minutes to
an hour. It requires more attention than that, and if
that's all you're getting, you're not getting the value added
that your partner should be getting you. We owe it
to our clients to give them that attention.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
In fact, I think i've heard both of you say
that on a regular basis, you need to rebalance these portfolios, right,
and you need to review them.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Absolutely, yeah, rebalancing with a purpose. Though we don't want
to just there's so many places that just do a
quarterly rebalance or annual rebalance, and that's not customized for
your specific situation. We want to rebalance when it makes sense.
While we when we've let the market have a little
(30:55):
bit of momentum, and when we want to take some
of our profits and reallocate some of that in to
bonds or vice versa, if we want to take away
from the bonds and reallocate into some stocks if they're
on if they had performed poorly in you know, a
recent time. So, but rebalancing when it makes sense for you,
and that's our strategy, and that keeps us disciplined and
(31:18):
it keeps us consistent because that's what ultimately wins in
this game of investing in the stock market. And if
you stick to a strategy and a plan, your outcome
over a long period of time will be very good
and you'll be happy with it as long as the
risk profile that you're in was what what fits your needs.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Yeah, rebalancing KIM is a strategy that needs to be
done in a thoughtful way. We don't do it because
it makes us look smarter. We do it because it's
a strategy and it's proven that it works. And if
you're not rebalancing, and we may see more rebalancing more
with more volatile times, if the water is calm, you
might not see very much. So you know, with the
(32:03):
competitiveness of the industry, there's no cost for trades or
anything of that nature. However, there's a lot of folks
out there that haven't rebalanced their plan. Maybe you're in
a four to one k or a company and there's
no rebalancing. Maybe you're do it yourself or investor, and
that's perfectly fine, But are you utilizing these strategies and
techniques or again, is there a big question mark going, Oh,
(32:27):
I don't know, you really should be.
Speaker 3 (32:29):
And whether you're rebalancing you know, once or twice a
year or whatever. You do need an annual review no
matter what.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Almost definitely, life happens, and life doesn't always cooperate with
our calendar, you know, you know, looking at your updating
your budget, you know, looking at inflation assumptions like we're
talking about today, what's your withdrawal and income distribution plan?
You know, tax wise, are you having the right withholdings?
These are all ongoing discussions and an annual review at
(33:00):
the minimum. But I always tell folks with our clients,
we don't have a quotas as to how many times
you can come in. For some people that's once a year,
other people it's ten times a year. Whatever gives you
the confidence to know that somebody's paying attention and there's
a method to what's going on and there's a reason
behind it. That's all that matters. And you you certainly
(33:24):
are owed that and you should expect it.
Speaker 3 (33:26):
Yeah, life changes and your situation changes, and it can
change three or four times in a year, and it
may not changed for three or four years, but certainly
life changes, and all of these kinds of things need
to be reviewed to keep you comfortable and to make
sure that your portfolio has been protected. Six one two
five zero four eight four zero zero. That's the number.
That's how you reach Haven Financial Group. Let them know
(33:49):
that you heard us here that you'd like to come
in and sit down and chat with the experts there
at Haven Financial Again, it's six one two five zero
four eighty four hundred up. Next, let's avoid some of
those mistakes that can be made and certainly can be
made during these inflationary periods. We'll chat about it. This
is the Haven Financial Group Radio Show.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
Don't go too far. We're gathering more important insights and
retirement please government the Haven Financial Group Radio Show. We'll
be right back. Stick around you've got questions, We've got answers.
Your tune to the Haven Financial Group Radio Show with
your host Larry Kulvig and Kim Karagan. Now back to
(34:30):
the show.
Speaker 2 (34:31):
Good morning once again, and welcome to the Haven Financial
Group Radio Show. Thanks for listening this morning. Feel free
to give us a call at six one two five
zero four eighty four hundred, or visit us online at
Havenfinancialgroup dot com. Send us an email info at Havenfinancialgroup
dot com. Ask us questions, come on in and visit
with us. We're not shy. We like to have a
(34:53):
really good coffee and how about a cookie to go
with it. Just to lighten this conversation up just a
little bit, so again talking about inflation and all the
other retirement topics that are so so so important as
we plan for retirement. Or maybe you're five years or
less before you retire, or maybe you're already in those
golden years. I hope those years are golden. But we
(35:16):
want to continue to be good stewards and make good decisions,
and we can never stop learning. So education again so
extremely important.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
So let's talk about some mistakes that we can avoid
in ways to avoid them, not just because inflation is
a little bit higher, but mistakes in general when it
comes to retirement portfolios. Let's start with over parking in cash.
We talked about cash in the last segment. We said
it is imperative that you have cash on hand because
life changes. But what if you got too much cash?
Speaker 4 (35:48):
Kyle, Well, this is one of the biggest mistakes we
see with people and having too much cash. Like Larry mentioned,
you want your emergence fund, you at least want that,
but having too much cash can be problematic because for
a couple of reasons. One, you're purchasing power is at
(36:10):
risk with this. If inflation's high and you're in cash,
you're actually losing money. You're having a negative return of
whatever inflation is on that money. So in twenty twenty two,
you know, that was minus eight percent for people who
are in cash, right, So that's one of the reasons.
And then a second reason in times of higher inflation,
(36:30):
the stock market tends to do well. So that's an
opportunity cost risk right there, where you could have been
invested in the market and making money rather than technically,
you know, losing money with purchasing power. So that is
one of the biggest reasons.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Yeah, sure, Well I just was going to say the
flip side of that though, would be chasing yields, like
just you know, constantly putting your money wherever you can,
thinking this is going to yield you something. Correct.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Absolutely, yeah, we don't want to just you know, put
our money into any kinds of bonds. And one of
the most common ones that I see is high yield bonds.
And when people come in with those, they show us
their statements and we're reviewing all that. High yield is
a really high percentage of bonds that we see, and
(37:20):
every time I see that, we always have a conversation
about we don't want to be taking risk within our bonds.
We want our bonds to be our stability and something
that doesn't have a lot of volatility. High yield bonds
have a lot of volatility. They are also called junk
bonds in the industry because they have a high default risk. Well,
(37:41):
when we have higher inflation, we don't want to take
any more risk than we need to in bonds because
those are already you know, a little more risky and
higher inflation, let alone high yield bonds. So it's really
important to know what kind of bonds you're holding to
see if it is in times of inflation, if it's
(38:02):
good quality bonds, and if they're low volatility types of bonds.
So make sure you know what bonds you own.
Speaker 3 (38:10):
Let's talk about auto pilot withdrawals. Not paying any attention.
You just get certain money drawn off, so you're not
paying attention to what the stock market might be doing.
That has to be a huge mistake, and I'm sure
it's one. Unfortunately a lot of people do.
Speaker 4 (38:25):
Yeah, and all of our retirees, I should say almost
all of them are getting some kind of systematic withdrawal
so they can live their life, whether that be monthly
or quarterly or semi annually. However that is, there's withdrawals.
We can be strategic about those withdrawals as well. If
the market is having a good year, maybe we have
(38:48):
raised enough cash from selling some of those stocks and
investments to keep on the sidelines so we have enough
to cover first six months or a year of withdrawals.
Or maybe if the market's having a down year, we
try to keep going on a monthly basis and trying
to sell from things that maybe aren't aren't down as much,
(39:10):
so we can try to let the things that are
down recover, right, So we're being we're choosing which areas
we take from to send out the distributions and withdrawals,
but we're also you know, taking our profits to some
degree and keeping some cash on the sidelines when when
we've had a good year, and making sure that that
(39:31):
part is out of the market and we have enough
to live on for at least you know, six months
or a year.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
And to both of you, I would assume that one
of the biggest mistakes that anyone can make is not
being cognizant of the tax ramifications from where their money
is and when it's being drawn.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
Yeah, i'd say tax drift. We call that not courting
taxable pre tax roth, non qualified brokerage, drawing from the
wrong accounts, causing you to creep up in the tax brackete.
Maybe causing an irma surcharge that you didn't weren't planning
on in lower after tax income situations. So a variety
of things. And I would add to that having the
(40:10):
wrong types of investments and the wrong types of accounts.
You know, I think back to seven o nine, the
real estate market was in the toilet. People retired and
I remember seeing a lot of retirees have reats. Now
we're not saying reads real estate investment trusts are bad,
but they're an alternative investment. They're rather ill liquid, And
(40:32):
I remember folks that had those and they couldn't even
access their own money because real estate was down and
they were insolvent, so they couldn't even access their money.
So the wrong types of moneys and the wrong types
of accounts in the wrong stage of life. You want
to get that right. You don't want to be forced
into a corner. So making these good decisions, and again,
(40:56):
how do you do that? Well, you can research and
research and research, or have a partner that you can
come on and lean on. Ask as many questions. I
get a kick out of folks say, man, I've had
a question for fifteen years, Well why not get the
answer to the question. Well, I don't know who to ask. Well,
are you working with anybody? Yeah, but no, there's no butt.
(41:17):
Just get the answers to your questions.
Speaker 3 (41:21):
Yeah. Absolutely, Well, we've been talking about inflation and how
it impacts retirees, and I think this has been a
really informative show. I want to ask Kyle what he
hopes the takeaway is for people who are listening today
when it comes to inflation and a retirees portfolio.
Speaker 4 (41:40):
I think the biggest takeaway is are you having a
conversation revolving around your sustainability and inflation? That is one
of the biggest things because most likely you know, if
you're retired or close to retirement, you know where you're
at with your investments and if those investments the solves
(42:01):
you know or are going to be good for retirement
or maybe you want to have a check on that.
But one of the biggest derailments can be inflation, and
it's it's important to make sure that you're working with
a partner who incorporates that and is planning for that
and has strategies around that and whatever different inflation numbers
(42:22):
that we see in the future.
Speaker 3 (42:24):
Larry, how about you.
Speaker 2 (42:26):
Well, it comes back to the big picture. You know,
do you have all the retirement puzzle pieces from a
state planning We have that in house our state planning
attorneys Kerry and Keith. Do you have an estate plan?
Have you reviewed any long term viable options for nursing
home long term care? I know we don't want to
talk about it, but it is a major expense, potentially
(42:48):
life insurance review. When's the last time you did that.
It's open in Roman, as I mentioned, Come on in
and visit with Glenna Isabella and make sure you're going
to be in the right plan with all the changes
going on with these healthcare providers. Again, whether you're on
the open market for medicare, minshure your investments, stress tests
that portfolio. It's fourth quarter, you should be having these
(43:10):
tax discussions. Come out and visit with Lance our CPA
or Melissa and Isy Roth conversion the right thing to do.
Are you going to fill that twelve percent bracket up?
Or are you just not going to have the conversations
that you should be having because nobody's on your side
and you're not working with anybody, or you're simply not
(43:31):
getting the attention that you're paying for. So why aren't
you getting the attention?
Speaker 3 (43:36):
All right? So why aren't you getting the attention? Folks?
If you're listening and you need that kind of attention,
if you're looking for a partner, give the folks that
Haven Financial Group a call six one two five zero
for eighty four hundred. Give them a call today. Tell
them that you heard us here. On the radio. You'd
like to come in, sit down, talk to them about
whether you are in those golden years and hopefully, as
(43:58):
Larry said, they are golden. But if they are not,
or you're concerned, go in and have your portfolio stress
tested and sit down and maybe have it reviewed. Or
if you're thinking about those years you realize now is
the time to start to put together a plan. They
can help you at Haven Financial Group six p one
two five zero four eighty four hundred. Gentlemen, thank you
(44:19):
so much. It's been great, like always.
Speaker 2 (44:21):
Great to be with you. Kim, I have a blessed week.
Speaker 5 (44:25):
Investment advisory service is offered through Guardian Well Strategies LLC.
Haven Financial Group and Guardian Well Strategies LLC are not
affiliated companies, and investments involve risk, and, unless otherwise stated,
are not guaranteed. Please consult with the qualified financial advisor
and or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein.
And comments regarding as safe and secure investments and guaranteed
(44:47):
income streams only refer to fixed insurance products.
Speaker 2 (44:50):
They do not.
Speaker 5 (44:50):
Refer in any way to securities or investment advisory products.
Fixed insurance and annuity product guarantees are subject to the
claims paying ability of the issuing company.
You worked hard for your money, but do you know
how to make it work hard for you. You need
a team with experience, vigilance, and a strategy to help
you live the retirement you deserve. Find your financial safe
haven with Haven Financial Group. Today you're listening to the
new and improved Haven Financial Group Radio Show, where we
bring you comprehensive weekly financial wisdom from the professionals. It's
(00:23):
all about helping you solve retirement problems so you can
make your nest egg last. Your tune to the Haven
Financial Group Radio Show with your host, Larry Kolvig and
Kim Karrigan your guides to weekly retirement confidence. If you're
interested in protecting and growing what you have, let us
be your financial safe haven. The phone lines are always
(00:43):
open at six point two five four eighty four hundred.
Now get your financial questions ready because the Haven Financial
Group Radio Show starts now.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Good morning, and welcome to the Haven Financial Group Radio Show.
I'm Larry Kolvig, Founder and CEO of the Haven Financial Group.
Feel free to give us a call at six one
two five zero four eighty four hundred or visit us
online at Havenfinancialgroup dot com. Check out our calendar of events,
educational classes, all kinds of great retirement tools. Kim, good
(01:16):
to be with you. We've got a lot to talk
about today.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Great to be with you as well. Here we are
in the middle of October already, My goodness. Gracious you
guys starting your holiday shopping? Is your wife doing that?
Speaker 2 (01:27):
I hope not. I like to celebrate Thanksgiving first, give
thanks and then I fight her on decorating before Thanksgiving.
So it's an uphill battle that I fight every year.
But I think I lost the battle last year.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
I was gonna say, a good marriage. Remember, it's compromise.
Whatever she'd like, that's what you do.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Yeah, in almost thirty years, I figured that out.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Well.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
It's good to have Kyle Thomas with us this week,
and of course he's a certified financial planner with the
Haven Financial Group. Kyle. Always good to have you.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Yeah, thank you so much for having me. I'm happy
to be back.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Absolutely, we're going to be talking about preparing for retirement
for higher inflation. You know, while we watch sort of
this inflation has been softening a little bit, it certainly
is not gone and we all know that. I think
every time we, you know, go to the gas pump
or we go to the grocery store. We are still
certainly seeing the effects. So we want to talk a
(02:23):
little bit about preparing for your retirement and still dealing
with these issues. When it comes to inflation, we'll talk
about the twenty twenty five August inflation numbers and what
they mean to you as a retiree or someone who's
thinking about retirement. Higher inflation and social Security, believe it
or not, they certainly have something to do with one another.
And we'll have a chat about that higher inflation and
(02:45):
retirement portfolio construction. That's sort of what this whole show
is about. It's about how to put together this portfolio
that protects you from higher inflation. And then finally, mistakes
to avoid in an inflationary period, and certainly there are
a number of those out there, but they can be
avoided if you've got a partner like the folks that
(03:07):
Haven Financial Group. If you hear anything this morning that
really sort of rings true for you, give the folks
that Haven Financial Group a call six one two five
zero four eighty four hundred inflation. Larry, Yes, I guess
you know. One of the tough things is that you
(03:27):
know inflation is happening. Now, it's going to happen again.
We're going to always see this. So how in the
world do you help your partners prepare for inflation when
it comes to retirement.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Well, there's no doubt inflation's cool from its peak, but
it remains a key swing factor for household budgets, especially
retirees that are on a most fixed income, if you will,
So it really does matter. Incidentally, the new cost of
living adjustment, which we'll talk about in Social Security, will
be coming out this month, but it does affect people's budgets.
(04:02):
It does affects those security all these things that we're
going to talk about on today's show. But we really
you said it very well. Inflation comes and it goes,
just like the market goes up and it goes down.
I mean, it's just it's very obvious, but when we
live in the moment, it seems to really it feels
like it affects us more. So, you know, when we
sit down with folks, we stress having you know, a
(04:24):
good idea of what your budget, let's factor in inflation.
We've done it for years and our as we build
out plans for folks that are you know, whether they're younger,
they're looking to retire their five years or in retirement.
We go through the same exact process every single time,
and I get a kick out of sometimes some advisors
they don't factor in inflation, which to me doesn't make
(04:45):
any sense at all, because it really does change things
drastically as it relates to money, the purchasing power of
the dollar and how long those retirement dollars are going
to last. So again, it's important to address the issue.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
How do you go about factoring that in, Kyle, I mean,
you know, you don't know what those swings of inflation
might look like. So when you're putting together someone's portfolio,
tell me a little bit about the steps that you
take to try to protect those portfolios from future inflation.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Yeah, that's a great question.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
And trying to guess what inflation is going to be
is just as good of a guess as what the
stock market's going to be, right. So that's why we
just we have thousands of different trials that we run, essentially,
and we pick a base inflation rate that is conservative
in general. Right, it's a little higher than what we
(05:40):
would expect it to be going forward, just because we
want that conservative aspect of, well, what if inflation ends
up actually being worse than what we are actually expecting.
So we've been trending towards doing about a three percent
inflation rate inside of our models now when we're planning
out for thirty forty years of retirement for our clients.
(06:04):
And that has a big impact over time because just
like your returns can compound, inflation can compound, and it
has a huge effect and eats away at your earnings
over time because a lot of people don't think about
inflation as an expense. I mean, it really is an expense.
If you get a six percent return but inflation is
(06:25):
three percent, your real return is actually three percent.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
You only made three percent.
Speaker 4 (06:29):
That year if you look at what that dollar actually
does for you. So if you made three percent and
inflation three percent, you actually kind of broke even for
the year. So that's why it's it's really important to
understand what inflation is and plan for it for a
long extended period of time because there are going to
be years where it can go up to eight or
(06:51):
nine percent like it did just a few years ago,
and we want to be prepared for all of those situations.
So that's why we send thousands of different trials and
to our model, and all these trials have different inflation assumptions.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Okay, so let's take a look. As we move forward,
and as Larry was saying, we're going to talk about
how it affects social security, and we're going to talk
about some of the mistakes you might make. But before
we do so, let's just sort of get a real
solid idea of where we are right now. So let's
look back at August numbers. We're always about a month
and a half, you know, reporting, So let's look at
(07:26):
August numbers and talk about where the inflation numbers were then,
and maybe that can give us a good basis for
the rest of the conversation.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
Yeah, so we're it's weird because these numbers always feel
kind of delayed, but it's what it's always delayed one month.
So we're we're looking at August numbers right now, and
the headline inflation is still above what the FED is
targeting at two percent. So it's still above that mark,
and we've been above that mark for.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
A few years now.
Speaker 4 (07:57):
And that's also why the FED hasn'tcessarily been lowering rates,
because they've been trying to get us to that two percent.
But the good news is we are trending downwards, so
we're getting closer to that mark, and we could potentially
even see rate cuts before we even hit that mark.
So that's that's the good news because we all want
those rates to come down because it creates more money
(08:20):
in our pockets and creates more money for the economy
as well. So, yes, inflation is trending in the right direction.
So that's what we all want because we do want
some inflation, but we don't want it to be what
it has been in these last few years.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
Sure, you know, when you look back on twenty twenty five,
I really believe that. You know, if you were to
choose a word to describe the economy, it may not
necessarily be inflation. It's going to be uncertainty. I think
there's been just so much uncertainty out there. Part of
that related to tariffs. How might that affect inflation?
Speaker 4 (08:56):
Well, the tariffs have a huge, huge impact on potential inflation.
Because if I'm actually going to take a step back
to and just talk about tariffs for a second, because
tariffs aren't actually attacks on a country, it's attacks on
the company importing those goods into this country, so those
(09:20):
companies could then increase their prices to pay for whatever
tariffs their pain. So that right there could be a
cause for inflation. You know, hopefully that doesn't happen. I
don't think these tariffs are designed to be long term,
and I know there's a whole thing going on with
China that just kind of rows up. But the tariffs
(09:43):
can provide inflationary pressures for the US consumer. We'll see
what that actually does. But tariffs itself is a thing.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
But also.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
Getting all these goods into the US and not having
legs within supply and shipping and all of that stuff.
That's something else that we just want to be on
the lookout for too, because along with those tariffs came
a lot of delays in things, and that caused prices
to go up itself as well.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
Yeah, let's talk a little bit. You mentioned it a bit.
Lower interest rates. Obviously, we've had a cut since these numbers,
these August numbers came out. We anticipate we could maybe
have a quarter cut again, and for that matter, maybe
two more cuts before the year is out. What kind
of impact might that have on retirees as it relates
to inflation.
Speaker 4 (10:38):
Well, in short answer, it allows for people to have
more money in their pockets if they're going out to
buy stuff or finance things. They're not paying as high
of an interest rate, So it makes people want to
spend more money in the economy, which is good for
(10:58):
the economy. It's good for businesses, it's good for everyone
because the borrowing rate to purchase these things is a
lot lower, and a lot of companies themselves are on
floating rate debt schedules, so when their interest rates are lower,
their balance sheets look better, which is which is better
(11:19):
for the consumer as well.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
So Kevin ahead, well, I just want to ask you
real quickly here. How does it affect the retirees investments?
Speaker 4 (11:28):
Yeah, so the investments themselves. We could have some lower
interest rates on the bond side of the portfolio, so
that's one thing to keep in mind because the return
on that part of your portfolio could also be lower.
A positive to that is that stocks tend to do
well when interest rates get lowered, so we could have
(11:49):
a counteracting there with bonds yielding going lower, but stock
appreciation potentially going higher as well. And it's not guaranteed
by any means, because we all know the stock market
can do anything any single day, but they're just with
the bonds potentially have been a lower yield, we do
have the potential for stock style perform as well.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
We're talking about inflation and how it could and does
impact retirees portfolios. We're going to move on to talk
about social security here in just a moment. We're just
sort of claiming the groundwork for this conversation. Looking at
August inflation numbers still above the FEDS two percent target.
We've been above the FEDS two percent target for a
(12:35):
number of years, so we want to continue this conversation
on the other side. Six poet two five zero four
eight four zero zero. That's how you get hold of
the folks here at Haven Financial Group. Give them a call,
let them know that you've heard us here on the radio.
You'd like to have your portfolio maybe tested to see
if you're prepared for this continued inflation. When we come
(12:55):
back again, we're going to talk about inflation and social security.
This is the Haven Financial Reprecation.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Don't go too far. We're gathering more important insights and
retirement pays Devin the Haven Financial Group Radio show. We'll
be right back. Stick around, you've got questions, we got answers.
Your tune to the Haven Financial Group Radio Show with
your host Larry Kolvig and Kim Karrigan. Now back to
(13:20):
the show.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Good morning once again, and welcome to the Haven Financial
Group Radio Show. I'm Larry Kolvig, founder and CEO of
the Haven Financial Group, celebrating ten years this year. I
don't know where those ten years went. And we have
also Kyle Thomas with US certified financial Planner on the
Haven Investment Team talking about inflation, how it affects retirees, budgets,
(13:42):
social Security, and a variety of other things today on
the show. So great to be with you. If you
have any questions, feel free to give us a call
at six one two five zero four eighty four hundred
or visit us online at Havenfinancialgroup dot com. I want
to point out we have a new education center in
our office. We're going to utilize it. We've got some
great classes coming up. We're going to have because it
(14:05):
was such high demand. We're going to have the local
police Department fraud Prevention because we had numerous people that
couldn't attend because the classes were so full. I know
my wife who's the office manager, just I think our
CPA Lance Larson is going to do a big, beautiful
bill class. So we really are big into education, you
(14:26):
know that, Kim, And I think we also have something
about wine, women in business or investments a class, so
a variety of these classes in the public sector and
also in our office. We're really big on education with
our current clients and any potential existing clients that may
come our way. So that's where it really starts, is
the education piece.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Yeah, And to learn more about those educational group settings,
it's Havenfinancialgroup dot com. Be sure you check it out
see where they are going to be in the area
or if they're going to be right there at the
educational center at the Haven find Financial Group headquarters. And
we're talking about inflation and how it impacts retirees. You know, Larry,
(15:07):
I realize inflation is not really a sexy conversation, but boy,
it affects everybody. It really really does, and retirees need
to be prepared for it. I don't know that a
lot of people realize how much inflation can affect their
social security. I think they probably in their minds think, well,
I draw my Social Security and that's pretty well set.
I'm in good shape there, but that's not necessarily the.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Case, not necessarily the case at all. I mean October
this is the month they come out with the announcement
of what the increase is going to be for Social Security,
which isn't a guarantee. Sometimes people think it's a guarantee
we're going to get a boost every single year, and
there have been years like twenty ten and twenty fifteen
where there was not any increases. So the date is
October twenty fourth, they'll come out with the announcement. What
(15:52):
I've been hearing is it's anywhere between two and three percent.
We'll see that will adjust the monthly income payments that
people are receiving from Social Security, and social Security is
the number one income stream for retired Americans. It's why
we teach Social Security and tax class. We just taught
a couple of them just this week and actually Hastings
(16:13):
and we have some more next week. So again we
encourage people to make educated decisions on when to turn
on Social Security. Why it is a big deal. Delaying
the bigger the check. Obviously, the longer you delay, the
bigger the check. But for some people, that isn't the
right decision. So if you're listening and you're questioning when
(16:34):
you should take social Security, why don't you come out
and visit with us. We'll run a social Security report
for you and we'll walk you through why it maybe
makes sense or why it doesn't make sense, and if
you're a married couple, why it should be a we
decision not a me decision. And I'll tell you this,
seventy percent of Americans turn it on right away at
age sixty two. That's our very high percentage, only one
(16:56):
to two percent way till age seventy. So that tells
me there's a lot lack of education when it comes
to making this very important decision.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
Kyle Thomas is with us as well. He's a certified
financial planner with Haven Financial Group. Kyle Larry just mentioned
that those cola increases aren't always guaranteed, So what you know,
what what is a retiree to do if you're depending
on that increase and maybe it doesn't come about.
Speaker 4 (17:25):
Yeah, Well, that that's where it all comes back to
our financial plan because from day one, when our clients
meet with us, we put together that plan and we
make sure that we're going to be set, you know,
for all all these different road bumps. So hopefully if
(17:47):
there is no cost of living adjustment on Social Security
and and that does impact your plan, hopefully there's other
sources or other strategies that we can you know, pull
levers on to make sure that we get the cash
flow that we need to live our lives and it
doesn't affect us, you know, horribly to where we can't.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
So there's other strategies that you that you can look
at too.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
So we have our investments right, well, maybe we need
to change what accounts we're pulling from, uh in coordination
with our taxes as well, and then maybe we let
our more aggressive account, you know, try to grow more
so in this year where we don't get that cost
of living adjustment and we pull from the other account
(18:30):
that's maybe a little more stable or something like that.
But there's there's different strategies that we can pull Because
all our investments are invested accordingly to the type of
account that they are. We don't just have a blanket
investment lineup for all of our different accounts. So that
gives us flexibility, especially in times of when they're say,
isn't a cost of living adjustment for our social security
(18:53):
gives us more options to be able to live our
lifestyle that that we were planning on, and then we're
not in our hands, aren't tied to just one stretch?
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Can I go back to I want to go back
to Medicare for just a second here, and how inflation
impacts Medicare And you know, in some situations, I guess
if that cost goes up, a lot of people are
hoping that COLA, that cost of living adjustment comes along
with it. What if it doesn't, Medicare still we can
see that go up in these inflationary times.
Speaker 4 (19:23):
Correct, Yes, we certainly can, and that the inflation number
on Medicare within our analysis is actually higher as well,
So we kind of base that at about a five
point eight percent inflation number every single year, whereas I
mentioned before, our base inflation number is about three percent
(19:45):
for everything else. So we're already accounting for a higher
medical expense inflation number, which it historically has always you know,
been that way. And then we do expect that these
my medical expenses are going to get higher over these
next few years as well, with some of the tax
(20:07):
changes and everything that were going on. So it's important
to make sure that you're accounting for that as well,
on top of whatever that base inflation amount is, because
historically that is always higher than the core inflation.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Kam, it's worth mentioning if I could add, just this
week past week, open enrollment just started for Medicare. There's
a lot of major changes with a lot of the
healthcare providers. So if you're listing and you have questions
or you're worried, and you maybe heard this through the
pipeline that you know they're not going to be covering
these doctors or these medical these prescription drugs. I will
(20:44):
tell you, Glynn and Isabella, we have access to all
the companies. We help a lot of people get scheduled
with them. Have a partner in your corner in all
of these retirement areas. I can tell you what you
don't pay anymore to have somebody work for you to
work backward from what company makes the most sense. And
I can tell you, and we've talked every week about
(21:05):
how people underestimate healthcare and Medicare, we factored into the
overall planning process. So it is open enrollment. You don't
want to miss an opportunity and I can't stress enough
the coordination of all of these retirement topics. You know,
it's also fourth quarter we're looking at Wroth conversions. But
some of these things there can be a real trickle
(21:26):
down or a piggyback effect if you don't do it right.
You know, just recently, we have had somebody in that
a couple of years ago, their advisor said it was
a great idea to do at Ira to Wroth conversion
a big, large amount, only to find out that it
affected his medicare premiums because he made too much money
and it ended up costing him a lot of money
(21:46):
by making the wrong decision. Taxes are relevant, so the
coordination between medicare, the insurance, the investments, the taxes, they're
all in a related and they really should be working together,
and so often they're working apart from each other rather
than working together. So I can't stress enough the coordination
(22:07):
of all these different retirement topics, not because it's so
fun and exciting to talk about all this stuff, but
it can really make a difference between you spending too much,
spending too little, not paying any more in taxes than
you have to. It's just extremely important and those working years.
You know, accumulation years are one thing, but retirement is
(22:29):
a different season of life. And have a partner in
your corner that you can go to. We're having these
meetings fourth quarter discussing so we don't miss opportunities. I
call them unforced errors or missed opportunities that can really
benefit people. But you have to start with the conversation.
And if you're not getting the attention or having the conversations,
(22:51):
I'm guessing you're missing opportunities.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
So do you need a partner when it comes to
putting together your retirement portfolio, not just during these implutionary times,
but just because you need a partner to put this together.
You heard Larry say, a partner who coordinates all different
facets of your retirement portfolio. Give the folks at Haven
Financial Group a call six one two five zero four
(23:15):
eighty four hundred and tell them you heard us here
on the radio. You'd like to set up an appointment,
come in and talk about your portfolio. Maybe you have
one and you need it tested when you need it
looked over. Maybe you're you know your approaching retirement, you
don't have one yet you need to put one together.
Either way, they would love to chat with you at
six one two five zero four eight four zero zero.
(23:38):
Up next, we're going to talk about constructing a portfolio
and retirement and how that may change or have to
be adapted during these high inflationary times. This is the
Haven Financial Group Radio Show.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Ready to find your financial safe haven. Your dream retirement
is in reach. Don't go away, The Haven Financial Group
Radio Show will be right back. Are you worried that
your financial strategy might be missing something, Well, you're in
the right place. Larry Kolvig is back and ready to
help you find your financial safe haven.
Speaker 2 (24:12):
Welcome back listeners. My name is Larry kolvic Founder and
CEO of the Haven Financial Group, and you're listening to
the Haven Financial Group Radio Show again. Thanks for listening.
We're talking inflation, we're talking all kinds of retirement topics.
Every week we do discuss these things and the importance
of making good retirement decisions, and it really starts with
the education and it starts with the conversation. So if
(24:34):
you're hearing something today, feel free to give us a
call at six one two five zero four eighty four
hundred or visit us online Havenfinancialgroup dot com. And I said, Kim,
a takeaway from that last segment. If you're listening, so
many times people associate this with all they're only talking
to the real wealthy or the affluent or the rich people.
(24:55):
It couldn't be further from the truth. So whether your
situation is complex or simple, or you have very very
little or a lot, this applies to you. So don't
back yourself in the corner. So oftentimes, of all the
years that I've done this, people are embarrassed. People come
in and they think that we're going to try to
(25:16):
sell them something. We're looking at an overall plan. Our
job isn't to sell you anything. It's too are you
in the right place at the right time, are you
making are you being a good steward of your money,
and are you making good decisions? That's really what it's
all about.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
Kyle Thomas is with us as well. He's a certified
financial planner with Haven Financial Group. Larry all Well said,
let's talk a little bit about constructing a portfolio during
these inflationary times. So Kyle, let's start with allocations. You know,
if you are going to set down and you're going
to start to put this together, give us a sense
(25:52):
of how you go about it.
Speaker 4 (25:54):
And the first thing that goes into figuring out an
asset allocation for someone is just figuring out their risk profile.
And regardless of what type of environment we're in economically
or the stock market, the risk profile shouldn't really change
because your appetite for risks shouldn't really be changing all
that much, especially people who are retired or in that
(26:16):
retirement phase or close to it, because what we don't
want volatility. We don't want to be trying to chase
what the market's doing or try to get ahead of it,
because history shows us that it's almost impossible to do that.
So we want to pick a risk profile that fits
us and what we're comfortable with and what we're going
(26:37):
to stick with long term, and that could be anywhere
from eighty percent stocks to twenty percent stocks. It all
depends on whatever your comfortability is and what you're able
to we're able to sleep at night with, right, So
your need, willingness and ability to take risk is kind
of how we look at that and decide on a
(26:58):
risk profile for you.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
So once we have.
Speaker 4 (27:01):
That, you know, then it then it gets kind of
put into our hands of building a portfolio around that
risk profile and adding different types of investments within each
of those stocks and bonds categories to make sure that
we are our risk is mitigated and that we are
allocated to investments that can be maximized during times of
(27:24):
higher inflation. And naturally our portfolios are are defensive in
a higher inflation type of environment. So that's that's a
good start right there. And and you know, especially over
these last few years, these portfolios have really done well
with this higher inflation.
Speaker 3 (27:43):
Mm hmm. You talk about, you know, depending on your
risk tolerance putting things in stocks and investments, but I'm
assuming that you also tell your clients that they should
have a certain amount of cash on hand.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
Yeah, I'll start with this one because you know, I've
said it on the show many times over the years
that we want to see good liquidity, good liquidity, access
to cash in those money market CDs, high interest savings
accounts not as high of interest now because rates have
come down a little bit, but having fifty to one
hundred grand in a cash position where you can get
(28:20):
access to it, and you might be listening to a
fifty to one hundred grand why so much? Because you
want options, you know, there's always a rainy day fund.
There's always something that comes up, or something that needs
the air conditioner, something needs to be fixed, the grandkids' birthdays,
and the market's down. We don't want to tap into that,
so we want to see a good cash position, so
(28:41):
we want a cash buffer. Kyle was mentioning, you know
the building these portfolio models. You know, many would say
we probably are a little bit more conservative than maybe
some are. Now that doesn't mean we have to be conservative.
Our job isn't to steer in anybody in any direction
of more risk or less risk. It's what risk profile
(29:01):
are you comfortable with? What's your willingness for risk and
ability to take risks and the need to take risk.
We have some clients that don't have any risk. We
have some that have one hundred percent stocks. And the
problem is most people are not aware of how their positioned,
and then their response is when the markets down or bad,
(29:23):
oh my goodness, I'm ready to jump off a cliff. Well,
that means you weren't in the right spot to begin with.
So it's first of all, getting position where you should be,
having an awareness and understanding stress tests that portfolio. To
avoid these oh my goodness types of situation. And then
never forget that tax awareness is so very important. You
(29:44):
don't have to be the tax expert, but an awareness
of understanding of why you're doing what you're doing. And again,
if you're not having these conversations, though, guess what, you
probably have a big question mark on your face, going,
I don't know if I'm doing it right or if
I'm not doing it right. And that's why we truly
believe that retirement in general is more than a meeting
(30:08):
once or twice a year for forty five minutes to
an hour. It requires more attention than that, and if
that's all you're getting, you're not getting the value added
that your partner should be getting you. We owe it
to our clients to give them that attention.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
In fact, I think i've heard both of you say
that on a regular basis, you need to rebalance these portfolios, right,
and you need to review them.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Absolutely, yeah, rebalancing with a purpose. Though we don't want
to just there's so many places that just do a
quarterly rebalance or annual rebalance, and that's not customized for
your specific situation. We want to rebalance when it makes sense.
While we when we've let the market have a little
(30:55):
bit of momentum, and when we want to take some
of our profits and reallocate some of that in to
bonds or vice versa, if we want to take away
from the bonds and reallocate into some stocks if they're
on if they had performed poorly in you know, a
recent time. So, but rebalancing when it makes sense for you,
and that's our strategy, and that keeps us disciplined and
(31:18):
it keeps us consistent because that's what ultimately wins in
this game of investing in the stock market. And if
you stick to a strategy and a plan, your outcome
over a long period of time will be very good
and you'll be happy with it as long as the
risk profile that you're in was what what fits your needs.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Yeah, rebalancing KIM is a strategy that needs to be
done in a thoughtful way. We don't do it because
it makes us look smarter. We do it because it's
a strategy and it's proven that it works. And if
you're not rebalancing, and we may see more rebalancing more
with more volatile times, if the water is calm, you
might not see very much. So you know, with the
(32:03):
competitiveness of the industry, there's no cost for trades or
anything of that nature. However, there's a lot of folks
out there that haven't rebalanced their plan. Maybe you're in
a four to one k or a company and there's
no rebalancing. Maybe you're do it yourself or investor, and
that's perfectly fine, But are you utilizing these strategies and
techniques or again, is there a big question mark going, Oh,
(32:27):
I don't know, you really should be.
Speaker 3 (32:29):
And whether you're rebalancing you know, once or twice a
year or whatever. You do need an annual review no
matter what.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Almost definitely, life happens, and life doesn't always cooperate with
our calendar, you know, you know, looking at your updating
your budget, you know, looking at inflation assumptions like we're
talking about today, what's your withdrawal and income distribution plan?
You know, tax wise, are you having the right withholdings?
These are all ongoing discussions and an annual review at
(33:00):
the minimum. But I always tell folks with our clients,
we don't have a quotas as to how many times
you can come in. For some people that's once a year,
other people it's ten times a year. Whatever gives you
the confidence to know that somebody's paying attention and there's
a method to what's going on and there's a reason
behind it. That's all that matters. And you you certainly
(33:24):
are owed that and you should expect it.
Speaker 3 (33:26):
Yeah, life changes and your situation changes, and it can
change three or four times in a year, and it
may not changed for three or four years, but certainly
life changes, and all of these kinds of things need
to be reviewed to keep you comfortable and to make
sure that your portfolio has been protected. Six one two
five zero four eight four zero zero. That's the number.
That's how you reach Haven Financial Group. Let them know
(33:49):
that you heard us here that you'd like to come
in and sit down and chat with the experts there
at Haven Financial Again, it's six one two five zero
four eighty four hundred up. Next, let's avoid some of
those mistakes that can be made and certainly can be
made during these inflationary periods. We'll chat about it. This
is the Haven Financial Group Radio Show.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
Don't go too far. We're gathering more important insights and
retirement please government the Haven Financial Group Radio Show. We'll
be right back. Stick around you've got questions, We've got answers.
Your tune to the Haven Financial Group Radio Show with
your host Larry Kulvig and Kim Karagan. Now back to
(34:30):
the show.
Speaker 2 (34:31):
Good morning once again, and welcome to the Haven Financial
Group Radio Show. Thanks for listening this morning. Feel free
to give us a call at six one two five
zero four eighty four hundred, or visit us online at
Havenfinancialgroup dot com. Send us an email info at Havenfinancialgroup
dot com. Ask us questions, come on in and visit
with us. We're not shy. We like to have a
(34:53):
really good coffee and how about a cookie to go
with it. Just to lighten this conversation up just a
little bit, so again talking about inflation and all the
other retirement topics that are so so so important as
we plan for retirement. Or maybe you're five years or
less before you retire, or maybe you're already in those
golden years. I hope those years are golden. But we
(35:16):
want to continue to be good stewards and make good decisions,
and we can never stop learning. So education again so
extremely important.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
So let's talk about some mistakes that we can avoid
in ways to avoid them, not just because inflation is
a little bit higher, but mistakes in general when it
comes to retirement portfolios. Let's start with over parking in cash.
We talked about cash in the last segment. We said
it is imperative that you have cash on hand because
life changes. But what if you got too much cash?
Speaker 4 (35:48):
Kyle, Well, this is one of the biggest mistakes we
see with people and having too much cash. Like Larry mentioned,
you want your emergence fund, you at least want that,
but having too much cash can be problematic because for
a couple of reasons. One, you're purchasing power is at
(36:10):
risk with this. If inflation's high and you're in cash,
you're actually losing money. You're having a negative return of
whatever inflation is on that money. So in twenty twenty two,
you know, that was minus eight percent for people who
are in cash, right, So that's one of the reasons.
And then a second reason in times of higher inflation,
(36:30):
the stock market tends to do well. So that's an
opportunity cost risk right there, where you could have been
invested in the market and making money rather than technically,
you know, losing money with purchasing power. So that is
one of the biggest reasons.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Yeah, sure, Well I just was going to say the
flip side of that though, would be chasing yields, like
just you know, constantly putting your money wherever you can,
thinking this is going to yield you something. Correct.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Absolutely, yeah, we don't want to just you know, put
our money into any kinds of bonds. And one of
the most common ones that I see is high yield bonds.
And when people come in with those, they show us
their statements and we're reviewing all that. High yield is
a really high percentage of bonds that we see, and
(37:20):
every time I see that, we always have a conversation
about we don't want to be taking risk within our bonds.
We want our bonds to be our stability and something
that doesn't have a lot of volatility. High yield bonds
have a lot of volatility. They are also called junk
bonds in the industry because they have a high default risk. Well,
(37:41):
when we have higher inflation, we don't want to take
any more risk than we need to in bonds because
those are already you know, a little more risky and
higher inflation, let alone high yield bonds. So it's really
important to know what kind of bonds you're holding to
see if it is in times of inflation, if it's
(38:02):
good quality bonds, and if they're low volatility types of bonds.
So make sure you know what bonds you own.
Speaker 3 (38:10):
Let's talk about auto pilot withdrawals. Not paying any attention.
You just get certain money drawn off, so you're not
paying attention to what the stock market might be doing.
That has to be a huge mistake, and I'm sure
it's one. Unfortunately a lot of people do.
Speaker 4 (38:25):
Yeah, and all of our retirees, I should say almost
all of them are getting some kind of systematic withdrawal
so they can live their life, whether that be monthly
or quarterly or semi annually. However that is, there's withdrawals.
We can be strategic about those withdrawals as well. If
the market is having a good year, maybe we have
(38:48):
raised enough cash from selling some of those stocks and
investments to keep on the sidelines so we have enough
to cover first six months or a year of withdrawals.
Or maybe if the market's having a down year, we
try to keep going on a monthly basis and trying
to sell from things that maybe aren't aren't down as much,
(39:10):
so we can try to let the things that are
down recover, right, So we're being we're choosing which areas
we take from to send out the distributions and withdrawals,
but we're also you know, taking our profits to some
degree and keeping some cash on the sidelines when when
we've had a good year, and making sure that that
(39:31):
part is out of the market and we have enough
to live on for at least you know, six months
or a year.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
And to both of you, I would assume that one
of the biggest mistakes that anyone can make is not
being cognizant of the tax ramifications from where their money
is and when it's being drawn.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
Yeah, i'd say tax drift. We call that not courting
taxable pre tax roth, non qualified brokerage, drawing from the
wrong accounts, causing you to creep up in the tax brackete.
Maybe causing an irma surcharge that you didn't weren't planning
on in lower after tax income situations. So a variety
of things. And I would add to that having the
(40:10):
wrong types of investments and the wrong types of accounts.
You know, I think back to seven o nine, the
real estate market was in the toilet. People retired and
I remember seeing a lot of retirees have reats. Now
we're not saying reads real estate investment trusts are bad,
but they're an alternative investment. They're rather ill liquid, And
(40:32):
I remember folks that had those and they couldn't even
access their own money because real estate was down and
they were insolvent, so they couldn't even access their money.
So the wrong types of moneys and the wrong types
of accounts in the wrong stage of life. You want
to get that right. You don't want to be forced
into a corner. So making these good decisions, and again,
(40:56):
how do you do that? Well, you can research and
research and research, or have a partner that you can
come on and lean on. Ask as many questions. I
get a kick out of folks say, man, I've had
a question for fifteen years, Well why not get the
answer to the question. Well, I don't know who to ask. Well,
are you working with anybody? Yeah, but no, there's no butt.
(41:17):
Just get the answers to your questions.
Speaker 3 (41:21):
Yeah. Absolutely, Well, we've been talking about inflation and how
it impacts retirees, and I think this has been a
really informative show. I want to ask Kyle what he
hopes the takeaway is for people who are listening today
when it comes to inflation and a retirees portfolio.
Speaker 4 (41:40):
I think the biggest takeaway is are you having a
conversation revolving around your sustainability and inflation? That is one
of the biggest things because most likely you know, if
you're retired or close to retirement, you know where you're
at with your investments and if those investments the solves
(42:01):
you know or are going to be good for retirement
or maybe you want to have a check on that.
But one of the biggest derailments can be inflation, and
it's it's important to make sure that you're working with
a partner who incorporates that and is planning for that
and has strategies around that and whatever different inflation numbers
(42:22):
that we see in the future.
Speaker 3 (42:24):
Larry, how about you.
Speaker 2 (42:26):
Well, it comes back to the big picture. You know,
do you have all the retirement puzzle pieces from a
state planning We have that in house our state planning
attorneys Kerry and Keith. Do you have an estate plan?
Have you reviewed any long term viable options for nursing
home long term care? I know we don't want to
talk about it, but it is a major expense, potentially
(42:48):
life insurance review. When's the last time you did that.
It's open in Roman, as I mentioned, Come on in
and visit with Glenna Isabella and make sure you're going
to be in the right plan with all the changes
going on with these healthcare providers. Again, whether you're on
the open market for medicare, minshure your investments, stress tests
that portfolio. It's fourth quarter, you should be having these
(43:10):
tax discussions. Come out and visit with Lance our CPA
or Melissa and Isy Roth conversion the right thing to do.
Are you going to fill that twelve percent bracket up?
Or are you just not going to have the conversations
that you should be having because nobody's on your side
and you're not working with anybody, or you're simply not
(43:31):
getting the attention that you're paying for. So why aren't
you getting the attention?
Speaker 3 (43:36):
All right? So why aren't you getting the attention? Folks?
If you're listening and you need that kind of attention,
if you're looking for a partner, give the folks that
Haven Financial Group a call six one two five zero
for eighty four hundred. Give them a call today. Tell
them that you heard us here. On the radio. You'd
like to come in, sit down, talk to them about
whether you are in those golden years and hopefully, as
(43:58):
Larry said, they are golden. But if they are not,
or you're concerned, go in and have your portfolio stress
tested and sit down and maybe have it reviewed. Or
if you're thinking about those years you realize now is
the time to start to put together a plan. They
can help you at Haven Financial Group six p one
two five zero four eighty four hundred. Gentlemen, thank you
(44:19):
so much. It's been great, like always.
Speaker 2 (44:21):
Great to be with you. Kim, I have a blessed week.
Speaker 5 (44:25):
Investment advisory service is offered through Guardian Well Strategies LLC.
Haven Financial Group and Guardian Well Strategies LLC are not
affiliated companies, and investments involve risk, and, unless otherwise stated,
are not guaranteed. Please consult with the qualified financial advisor
and or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein.
And comments regarding as safe and secure investments and guaranteed
(44:47):
income streams only refer to fixed insurance products.
Speaker 2 (44:50):
They do not.
Speaker 5 (44:50):
Refer in any way to securities or investment advisory products.
Fixed insurance and annuity product guarantees are subject to the
claims paying ability of the issuing company.
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