Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You worked hard for your money, but do you know
how to make it work hard for you. You need
a team with experience, vigilance, and a strategy to help
you live the retirement you deserve. Find your financial safe
haven with Haven Financial Group. Today you're listening to the
new and improved Haven Financial Group Radio Show, where we
bring you comprehensive weekly financial wisdom from the professionals. It's
(00:23):
all about helping you solve retirement problems so you can
make your nest egg last. Your tune to the Haven
Financial Group Radio Show with your host Larry Kolvig and
Kim Karrigan your guides to weekly retirement confidence. If you're
interested in protecting and growing what you have, let us
be your financial safe haven. The phone nines are always
(00:43):
open at six point two five four eighty four hundred.
Now get your financial questions ready because the Haven Financial
Group Radio Show starts now.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Good morning listeners, and welcome to the Haven Financial Group
Radio Show. I'm Larry Kolviign and CEO of the Haven
Financial Group talking about retirement every week with you Kim,
we have a guest today Kyle Thomas, certified Financial Planner
on the Haven Investment Team good to have you, Kyle,
A lot to talk about lot in the news, and
(01:15):
Kim started us off, all right, well.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
We're going to talk about interest rates today. Oh boy,
we haven't we been talking about interest rates for a
long time.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
Federal Reserve has been busy.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
And cutting interest rates again, and you know, there's some
speculation that could be cut one more time in twenty
twenty five. Maybe not j Powell, the chair, not really
clear about what might happen. But we're going to talk
about the impact of interest rates going down on your retirement.
(01:49):
First off, we're going to begin by talking about why
our interest rates expected to come down, then a lower
rate environment, and how that might impact your decision making
when it comes to retirement, the cycle of lower rates,
inflation and the economy. And then finally we're going to
wrap things up with costly mistakes to avoid is interest
(02:09):
rates decrease. So, Kyle, good to have you with us,
and maybe you could kind of just unpack what's happened
with the Federal Reserve this year up to this point.
Speaker 5 (02:21):
Yeah, thanks for having me, and it's good to be
back on So, Yeah, the Federal Reserve this year, they've
met you know, almost probably nine nine or ten times
now this year, and they've been discussing rate cuts. They've
been wanting to cut rates for the last couple of years,
and it just hasn't been the case to actually cut
(02:44):
as they were wanting to. And that's just because inflation
tended to stay higher than they were wanting it to be,
and it's still a little higher than what they wanted
to be that two percent target, but we're slowly kind
of getting to that target. And how rate cuts are
becoming a big talk, you know, with already one happening
(03:04):
this year, and then expect expectations of one more of
this year yet, and then who knows beyond this year.
But that's that's been a big discussion point for going
on three years now, is what are rate cuts going
to be like?
Speaker 6 (03:20):
And how many are we going to get?
Speaker 5 (03:22):
And we're starting to get to that point where, okay,
I think we're going to start seeing, you know, a
couple of rate cuts in the near future.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Here, sure, let's talk immediately, if we could. You know,
everybody's talking rate cuts, rate cuts, rate cuts, and then
they immediately go to real estate, which actually I'm not
so sure that these fed rates, you know, have an
immediate impact on the real estate market like people think.
Speaker 4 (03:46):
But let's talk about the impact that.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
It has on retirees and pre retirees, because that's that's
who our audience is and that's what they care about.
So as we start to see these interest rates being
caught twice now in twenty two, twenty five, and we're
in a range of six percent, right you, we're around
six percent at this point. Fluctuates day in, day out,
(04:09):
but we're in that range. What's the impact.
Speaker 5 (04:13):
Yeah, it has a huge impact on retirees because a
lot of retirees are they're invested in bonds and instruments
that provide yield, and yield is directly tied to what
the interest rates are. So you know, income from new
new cash instruments like CDs and savings accounts and just
(04:35):
different types of bonds, Treasury bonds, you know, short term bonds,
long term bonds that they all fall, which lowers the
return for those investors who are maybe relying on that
income on a monthly, quarterly, some annual basis to you know,
pay their bills. So that could be a lot lower
of yield for them to actually you know, have money
(04:57):
in their pockets. And also you know, existing bonds could
increase in value if they're holding them, but it doesn't
create cash flow for them, right, so they still have
to hold the bond, but the yield that they're getting
from it is lower, the value of it is higher,
but that's still an asset that you would have to
(05:18):
go in and sell if you wanted to receive any
proceeds from that, which a lot of people don't have
to go in and sell their bonds to get money.
It does create cheaper borrowing though, so that is you know,
one positive outlook on that, if you wanted a home
equity line of credit, your credit cards, mortgages, I know,
(05:38):
you know, typically you're not getting a mortgage in retirement,
but all of that stuff ends up being cheaper, you know, cars,
car loans, right, So all of that stuff is positive
for a lower rate. But then also another positive is
that when rates go down, the equity market actually can
perform positively, especially in those small cap stock are Those
(06:00):
are ones that we specifically try to invest in and
grab pieces of because those ones specifically do well in
times of rate cuts. So we have a diversified portfolios
of all bonds, different types of bonds and then stocks
and sebastic classes of stocks and making sure that we're
just diversified so we can handle you know, different types
(06:21):
of markets, but also capitalize on a rate cut environment.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Kim if I could add quickly to that, he mentioned
the yield crunch. You know those conservative investors which we
have at Haven, people tend to be a little more conservative.
Don't have to be, but we see things through the
lens of retirement because we're visiting about retirement. A lot
of our clients are retired, and so they're seeing those
rates on CDs high yield savings that they were getting
(06:48):
four or five at the peak, about five and a
half percent, you know, now coming back to under you know,
high threes, maybe four if you're lucky. So they're seeing
that and then they see, well, as Kyle Man, the
equity markets may look a little more appealing, but what
comes with that risk, Well, be careful, and to be
(07:08):
careful not because we're worried about the market, because it
goes up and down, and it's just that risk as
it relates to retirement. You may get in a precarious
situation where you're taking too much risk, which ironically most
folks a lot of folks we sit down with, they
have no idea how much risk they're taking until we
stress test their portfolio and give them a bit better
(07:31):
understanding and awareness and understanding is so important. You know,
they don't have to be the experts, but they should
have a good understanding of how much risk they're taking.
In a lot of cases, what Kyle and the team
finds out is they're taking way more risk than their
comfort level. And they have this big question mark on
their face. I wonder why that is.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
So, Yeah, that's a big question mark too, it is. Yeah,
So let me ask you as we watch these interest
rates go down and again, as we've said, the FED
is not real clear as to whether we might see
another interest rate drop before twenty five is out. Is
this actionable time? Should people be changing or should they
(08:16):
hold steady, you know, to the end of the year.
Speaker 4 (08:19):
What are you advising?
Speaker 5 (08:20):
It's definitely worth the conversation because you know, you can
you can alter your portfolio to match the needs that
you have, and you should constantly be be doing that.
You know, we we say we really like to meet
at least twice a year with our clients because you know,
there's various things that go on throughout the year, but
(08:42):
we want to do a check in and then also
some further planning, you know, like taxes and all that stuff.
But during those meetings you should always be looking at
you are your goals aligned with what your portfolio is doing.
And then also your advisors should be doing that as well.
But it's always a good time to you know, look
(09:02):
at the portfolio and see is this what we want
right now? And you could definitely, you know, take a
look at and try to grab some pieces of bonds
and capture that appreciation if you don't necessarily need the income. Plus,
there's some products that we're seeing right now that you know,
the rates probably aren't going to be as favorable in
the next few months, so if you could lock that
(09:23):
in right now, that could give you a higher guaranteed
interest rate. And we're seeing you know, seven percent on
a first year for that kind of product, and in
a year from now, I'm not expecting it'll be at
seven percent.
Speaker 4 (09:36):
Sure, absolutely, Yeah, the reality is there.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
The FED is really doing a balancing act, and it
is a balancing act to these changes need need to
be slow and predictable. They're fighting a balance between obviously
recession risk and inflation. And then there's this uncertainty the
government shutdown which has gone on the longest one ever.
So there's the key data. They just don't have the
(10:02):
data because of the government shutdowns, so you know the
risk of coming up with some errors because they don't
have the data. So they are truly doing a balancing act.
Speaker 3 (10:12):
Yeah, and a balancing act on the part of the FED.
But this is also that time when and you guys
talk about this all the time, that you need to
take a look and see if you need to balance
your portfolio and make sure that you're aligned with what's happening.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Correct communication, communication with whomever you're working with, not because
we want to create fear and anxiety, which you know
this does create fear and anxiety for a lot of folks.
With that should become more conversations with who you've partnered with,
talking through here's your plan. Remember we came up with
this plan. Remember we allowed for these things. Because this
(10:51):
isn't the first time in history this has happened. This continues.
History has a way of repeating itself. So getting the
confidence through these conversations to go, oh now, I remember
no needs of your grey actions, stick to the plan,
not that there's not going to be modifications, but again
that confidence comes with conversation.
Speaker 4 (11:11):
Well, it also comes with a plan.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
So you have to have a plan first and then
that's then you need the partner who can help you
through it to make sure in these times when we
keep seeing changes on the federal level, that you are
as balanced and as protected as you can possibly be.
Do you have a plan? Are you looking for a partner?
Even Financial Group would love to sit down with you
(11:33):
and chat. It's six one two five zero for eighty
four hundred and tell them that you've heard us here
on the radio and you'd like to come in sit down,
talk about either putting a portfolio together or maybe you
have one and you'd like them to look it over,
run a stress test, make sure you're where you need
to be. Again that number six one two five zero
four eight four zero zero. We're talking about interest rates
(11:57):
and as they come down, the climate changes, and we're
talking about how that impacts retirees up next lower rate
environment and the decisions that you need to make as
a result of it. This is the Haven Financial Group
Radio show.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Don't go too far. We're gathering more important insights and
retirement ways. Devinent the Haven Financial Group Radio Show. We'll
be right back. Stick around. You've got questions, We've got answers.
Your tune to the Haven Financial Group Radio Show with
your host Larry Kulvig and Kim Karrigan. Now back to
(12:31):
the show.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Good morning, and welcome back to the Haven Financial Group
Radio Show. I'm Larry Kolvig, Founder and CEO of the
Haven Financial Group. I have Kyle Thomas, certified financial Planner
with the Haven Investment Team on today talking about interest rates, inflation,
all those topics Kim that are just so fun, maybe
not fun, but so important to really any listener young
(12:54):
or older, retired or soon to be retired. So if
we're speaking to you, if you're looking for more information
about any of these key retirement topics, and not just
this investments of state planning, long term care. Just this
past week on a state planning Carrie and Keith are
state planning partners. We had two full classes in shockapee, wills, trusts,
(13:17):
and legacy planning. Another important topic medicare annual enrollment. Any
of these things as they relate to you and your
situation and your decision making. Maybe it's time to get
a partner, so feel free to give us a call
at six' one two five four eighty four hundred or
visit us online At havenfinancialgroup dot.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Com we've been talking this morning about the lower interest
rates The Federal reserve in the last week and a,
half lowering interest rates for the second time in twenty twenty,
five and there is still some discussion and some head
scratching as to whether they'll come down. Again so how
does this impact a pre retiree or someone who is in.
(13:57):
Retirement we want to talk, about you, know decision making
as these rates come. Down so the best way to make,
decisions no, Doubt larry has said this many many times
is to be, informed to, understand to have. Knowledge Kyle
thomas is with, us a certified financial, planner And, KYLE
i want to ask you about as these interest rates come.
(14:21):
Down there are some terms that they, use, low, lower
and lowering interest. Rates can you explain to us what
those three things?
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Mean?
Speaker 5 (14:32):
Yeah, yeah so, low, lower and lowering is definitely it
could be kind of confusing to just every day.
Speaker 6 (14:40):
Life but the way that it's described is.
Speaker 5 (14:43):
Low that would be you, know if rates were low
lower than what they have been over, time or lower
than the average in terms of history across the whole.
Speaker 6 (14:55):
Economy and then lower.
Speaker 5 (14:58):
That would be if rates are lower than they were you,
know just yesterday or or last, year but not necessarily
low interest. Rates it just means that they're lower than you,
know a previous benchmark, maybe and then. Lowering that just
kind of says that rates are in a trend of being.
Speaker 6 (15:17):
Lowered.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Right so if you, know think about on a steps going, downwards,
right you're going, downstairs maybe that would be like a
lowering scale of interest.
Speaker 6 (15:27):
Rates and so.
Speaker 5 (15:28):
THAT'S i think that's kind of where we're in right. Now,
hopefully hopefully we can get a couple more cuts in
the near future here and then you, know we can
get into some lower rates in the.
Speaker 6 (15:39):
Future that would be. Nice.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
Yeah, absolutely so we're.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
Lowering so let's talk about what that means for people
who are listening in pre retirees and. Retirees they're higher
right now than they have been in the lifetime of
people who are retired right.
Speaker 4 (15:58):
Now but what's the.
Speaker 5 (15:59):
Impact, well you, know the impact is it's going to
affect the bond. Returns that's the, biggest biggest part of the,
puzzle and we're going to have lower, yields potentially higher stock,
Yields but right now is a great time to be
(16:21):
opportunistic and kind of jump on some of these higher
rates because we don't know when they would be back
at this. Point, again you, know this could be the
highest yields that we see for the next ten, years you,
know maybe maybe it's for the next twenty.
Speaker 6 (16:36):
Years we don't.
Speaker 5 (16:36):
Know but what we do know is, that like you,
said they are higher in context of you, know the last,
decade and we can lock in some of those higher,
rates just like in annuities and CDs and, treasuries you,
know especially people with tax. Considerations treasuries are a great
option in the state Of minnesota because those offer state
(17:00):
tax free interest and you can get interest just as
high as CDs. Almost so it's just important to look
at all these options to create that income for you
and and lock in some of those higher rates before
they start to dwindle down and go into that lowering.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Phase as two experts who have watched this game for
a long, time when people are listening right now and
they're they're they're hearing you, say maybe you should be.
Opportunistic what's the timeline, there how much time do they
have to take advantage or to change before being.
Speaker 5 (17:37):
Affected, well you, KNOW i would say you'd probably want
to take a look at doing this within the next
uh before the end of the, YEAR i should, say,
actually because you, Know i'm Thinking december is probably the
next cut this, year if there is one this. YEAR
i don't Think november is going to have. One BUT
i would say before the end of the, year you,
(17:57):
know it's probably a good time to start looking at.
It and then you, know you can start the new
year off with a clean slate if there's any changes.
There AND i just you, know you could look at
it In january. TWO i just kind of personally like
to start a new year off, with you, know any
new strategies and that. Stuff BUT i would definitely say
(18:18):
before the next rate cut would be a good time
to look at, this because once those rates come, down
then changes are implemented immediately with the.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Rates you, KNOW i GUESS i would, add depending upon
what your situation, is what is your. Strategy you, know
If kyle mentioned if you're lending as putting money in
CDs highled, savings you, know the interest rates have come,
down but they're not nearly as low as they were
for almost fifteen. Years in, fact we have a fixed.
Annuity still that's. Relevant there's terms to. It you should always.
(18:49):
Understand it's WHY i teach the class of the truth about.
Annuities but we have a fixed index. Annuity the first
year they're guaranteeing you seven point three five. Percent, still
if you want more, information sounds, appealing let's let's get
you all the, facts because that's what's. Important if you're you,
know if you're borrowing and, uh maybe waiting for rates
to come, down maybe that's part of your strategy mortgage.
Speaker 6 (19:12):
Rates Now i've said it.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Before other financial folks will differ on, me BUT i
love to see retirees not have a. MORTGAGE i can
show you many examples of people that have had it fired.
Back they didn't pay off the, mortgage they kept it
in the market and unfortunately that it works so. Well
the happiest people in, retirement my, observation in all the,
(19:36):
years do not have a. Mortgage that's not relative for.
Everybody not everybody can get, there BUT i think it's
a good goal for a lot of. People so, again
depending upon what you're doing and what you, need your
strategy will play out as far as the timeliness of
doing it or not doing. It but again we were
there's always these shifts and There this isn't new. Territory
(19:58):
this is not uncharted. Territory it's just we as. Humans
we live in the. Present so in the president it
all seems, like oh my, goodness this is this is
something brand. New it's not as if we haven't seen this.
Before but we just have to navigate. Accordingly do you
have a partner that you can call or are you
doing this? Alone maybe that's not the answer that you should.
Speaker 3 (20:21):
Have it seems to be too in this climate that
people are going to need to be flexible because you,
know you might make those changes As kyle had recommended
before the end of the, year and then we might
Hit january Or february and we're going to see him
go down again and that might mean another. Change so
you're going to have to be sort of flexible and
(20:43):
be prepared to make a lot of changes possibly as
this comes.
Speaker 5 (20:46):
Down, yeah but that's where it's really nice to have
a partner who's working with you on, this because that's
something that we do every. Day you, know we're making
changes for people on a daily, basis and you, know
reallocating portfolioleos from stuff that they had, elsewhere and you
know that we always are have a good strategy around
(21:08):
that and making sure that we minimize any taxes or
try to do things completely tax free as. Well so
having a partner can really help with that and relieve
a lot of stress around, that because it is a
big undertaking if you're trying to do it on your,
own because there's a lot of thought that goes into
it and planning that should be. Done so make sure
(21:29):
that you have someone that you can just soundboard stuff
off if you're going to be trying to do it
on your. Own but ALSO i highly suggest working with
a partner.
Speaker 4 (21:38):
So that all circles. Back Oh i'm, Sorry, larry go.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Ahead, No, yiam IF i could just add, sure it's
why we like all the options on the, table and
you really only have all the options on the table
by having a good balanced.
Speaker 6 (21:49):
Approach it's WHY i speak to the.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Fact that we think you should have fifty to one
hundred grand as a benchmark in your mid, sixties retired
or not even. Retired in liquid tangible easy access to.
Cash when the market's, down you need to draw the
grandkids have parties or birthday, parties. Whatever again options and
then stock market, investments the right type of efficient diversified
(22:12):
portfolio with all the asset classes that make up a good.
Portfolio and then in anchor to your, retirement maybe some
investments that are principal protected that don't have all the
risks of the market that if the markets are, Down,
yeah you might get a, zero you may give up
some of the, upside you may give up some. Liquidity
(22:32):
but a good balanced approach gives you options when the
economy and certain things are they're changing and we like.
Speaker 3 (22:40):
Options, well AS i was going to, Say, larry this
sort of circles us back to what this whole subject
matter was all, about which was making good decisions in
this lower rate. Environment and if you aren't sure about those,
decisions you're looking for a partner to help you make those.
Decisions give the folks That Haven Financial group a. Call
it's six one two five zero zero four eighty four
(23:01):
one hundred at six one two five zero four eighty
four zero. Zero we want to continue this conversation about
lower interest rates coming. Up we're going to talk about
the cycle of lower interest, rates how that infects inflation
and then ultimately affects the. Economy this is The Haven
Financial Group Radio.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Show ready to find your financial safe. Haven your dream
retirement is in. Reach don't go, Away The Haven Financial
Group Radio show will be right. Back are you worried
that your financial strategy might be missing, Something, well you're
in the right. Place Larry kolvig is back and ready
to help you find your financial safe. Haven welcome back.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
Listeners my name Is Larry, kolvig founder AND ceo of
The Haven Financial. Group and if you're just tuning, in
you're listening to The Haven Financial Group Radio. Show we're
weekly we discuss crucial retirement and financial topics that can
make the difference between surviving retirement and threat through. It,
kim this week just happened to be interest, rates inflation
and all those wonderful topics that we continue to talk
(24:07):
about because they're ever changing and they're applicable to, everybody
but for sure those that are planning for.
Speaker 6 (24:14):
Retirement.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Absolutely Kyle thomas is with, us a certified financial planner
With Haven Financial. Group we're always happy to have his.
Expertise we have been talking about interest. Rates of, Course
Federal reserve lowering interest rates for a second time this
year about a week and a half, ago and there
is talk that there could be another interest rate, drop
(24:36):
possibly this, year if not this, year early in twenty.
Speaker 4 (24:40):
Six we've talked a little bit about.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
The impact that this has on retirees and pre. Retirees
but let's talk a little bit if we, could, gentlemen
about the impact that these lower interest rates and The
fed's decisions are having on the. Economy, inflation as you, Said,
larry is something that we have been talking about non.
Stop so if you, know if interest rates start to come,
(25:03):
down talk to us about what that does for inflation
and then ultimately for the economy as a.
Speaker 5 (25:09):
Whole, Yeah so it reduced interest rates or lowering interest
rates definitely stimulate an. Economy so when The fed does,
that they're trying to just pump more spending essentially into the,
economy and so it encourages banks to lend, more you,
know increasing the money supply that's out there in the,
(25:30):
economy and you, know is spending increases demand for goods
and services, rise and that can potentially push the prices
of goods, upwards so that that's you, know the inflationary
aspect there that can happen with lowering, rates you, know
(25:51):
and they they tend to stimulate economic activity pretty, well
and you know that's where that inflation comes. From but
when they're, reduced the borrowing becomes cheaper for businesses and
consumers as, well so it's more money in your own
pocket and in these companies. Pockets you, know when rates
went up back in twenty twenty, two that isn't as
(26:15):
good for, anybody, right you, know companies hurt from.
Speaker 6 (26:18):
That we all hurt from.
Speaker 5 (26:20):
That but some of the big, companies you, know they
actually did okay because they weren't, borrowing they were holding
they had. Cash you, know think About apple And, amazon
all those big. Companies they have cash on, hand so
they didn't necessarily hurt from. That it's all the companies
and people who don't have the cash.
Speaker 6 (26:37):
On hand that really get impacted by.
Speaker 5 (26:39):
That so when rates come, down everyone tends to do
well and stimulates that economy for thriving thriving an economy.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Here you know a lot of people think that for
such a long, time you, know our interest rates were down,
gosh three, percent you, know something like. That it was
just so low it's. Crazy that's not always great for the, economy, right.
Speaker 5 (27:03):
You, know we do we do want some, inflation, right
we want we want it to be a modest, amount
and that's what The fed is trying to get and
trying to match that inflation number with the interest, rates
because that's part of that dual, mandate, right is making
sure that our our labor market's good and that inflation
is at a good, spot and they're controlling an interest
(27:26):
rate to find that sweet spot with. Those so we
do want a little bit of, everything their interest rates
and inflation because that's what actually spurs our economy to.
Grow but we just don't want it to be what
it was a few years back at eight or nine,
percent because that's that's where it gets really hard and
(27:47):
costs a lot of money to, borrow which makes people
not want to, spend which makes businesses go out of
business because people aren't buying their, products and that that's
just a downfall for the. Economy so that's why it
was such an important task for them to get these
interest rates down these last few.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
Years one thing to add, there lower interest rates caution
can discourage saving and encourage spending. Well as retirement, planners
we don't want to discourage saving because we're saving for
retirement and we're not always going to encourage more. Spending, incidentally,
though we do have conversations with folks that have done
(28:25):
a good job of, saving And i'll, say are you spending? Anything,
no not, really and they probably never will spend anything
because it's not in their nature to spend a. Penny
but there's others that have no problem. Spending so you,
know word o the, wise, there don't stop saving just
because the interest rates go, lower and don't start spending
just to. Spend you, know adhere to that budget That
(28:47):
i've talked about numerous times and shows again we want
a good balanced retirement, plan a good, approach and that doesn't.
Change it's because interest rates go up or they go.
Speaker 4 (28:59):
Down guess which one of.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
Those CATEGORIES i fall into, There, LARRY i think you
probably have a pretty good. Idea my husband knows for.
Speaker 6 (29:07):
SURE i care not to Say i'm on the.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
Air so having said all, that our econ you, know
one oh one class for the folks who are. Listening
the idea behind this is that obviously there is fluctuation
there's constant, change and this is going to. Happen it's happening,
now it has happened in the, past this is going
to happen in the. Future so when they come in
(29:31):
and we sit down with you guys and, say, Hey
i'm out ready to retire AND i need to put
together a really great. Plan how do you plan for
this constant change of interest rates and inflation and the
economy is strong and it's. Weaker how do you plan for?
Speaker 5 (29:47):
That, yeah you, know it all comes back to our initial,
uh you, know meetings and making sure that your goals
are in our our analysis and that we're planning for.
That and then we go from there and we try
to figure out what are our needs and what do
(30:08):
we want this to look like for the next thirty,
years because we want to be stress testing for a
long time and typically it's you, know thirty to thirty
five years in retirement that we're planning for because we
want to make sure we don't run. Out but with
all of those assumptions of spending and the asset base
that we have and all the income, sources we stress
(30:29):
test that out over a thousand different trials of market
scenarios and these market scenarios have really bad, markets you,
know think about eight oh nine happening multiple, times you,
know in the worst case of those, scenarios and then
maybe some really good scenarios like the last two years
happening a lot of, times or like the tech, bubble
(30:52):
right and everything in. Between is so a thousand different,
trials and we try to get a success rate of
seventy five or. Higher so that means seven hundred and
fifty of the thousand trials or higher would be a,
success which means not running out of.
Speaker 6 (31:08):
Money and so.
Speaker 5 (31:09):
That's the best way for us to look at, it
because if we go in and check on that success
rate every single year and we don't go below seventy,
five well we're probably going to be fine for the
rest of our. Lives right because the closer you get
to that end time of you, know that thirty year time.
Horizon the closer you get to the, end the more
accurate you're getting every single. Year so naturally that seventy
(31:33):
five percent would go. Up even if you know your
spending habits stay the same each year you, live that
that success rate would go. Up so that's how we
do it and make sure people are on track and
make sure that we're accounting for all these different types
of scenarios that could.
Speaker 6 (31:49):
Happen.
Speaker 4 (31:50):
Larry this is why.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
It's so important for people to partner with folks like
you guys At, haven so that these kinds of tests
can be run and this kind of planning can, happen because,
again life is going to happen and changes are going
to continue to.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
Exist it's always.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Happen it's going to continue to. Happen but if you're
not getting the, attention if you truly are not sitting
down with somebody a few times a year to talk
through these, things you owe it to, yourself maybe to
get a second. Opinion maybe you're not in the right
spot because you should be getting that attention somebody to
hold your, hand not because you have to have your hand,
held but maybe you. Do maybe you haven't looked at
(32:29):
it a long. Time if you if, you if you,
keep if you're doing the same things you did thirty
years ago and you haven't changed, anything it's probably due
for an overhaul or.
Speaker 6 (32:39):
Some sort of.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Change change isn't always, fun you. KNOW i continue to
hear sometimes people when they you, know we don't want
to go to a financial person because we're feared that
they're going to sell us. Something we're retirement. Planning we're
a retirement planning. Firm we're Not our goal isn't to
sell you. Anything our goal is to develop a long
term relationship where you feel so comfortable talking about any
(33:01):
of these. TOPICS i love when somebody AND i hear it, Often,
wow it's so nice that you have in your, office you,
know A, cpa tax, planner a state, planner investment, team
all the insurance products where we can help in all
these different. Areas and, thankfully ten years into this At
Haven Financial, group we have multiple. Personalities you will get the.
(33:23):
Attention AND i love WHEN i hear folks, say, wow
this is so comfortable. Here it's so, comfortable it feels
so homey, yeh it's so much.
Speaker 6 (33:32):
Fun if you can't say.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
That where you're at right, now you may owe it
to yourself to get a second.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
Opinion And i'm going to bet a whole lot of
people listening the last word they use is fun when
it comes to this kind of. Thing SO i love
that six one, two five zero four eighty four. Hundred
tell them you heard us here on The. Radio when
we come, back we're going to talk about those costly
mistakes that you want to avoid as interest rates start
to come. Down this is The Haven Financial, group, right
(34:01):
don't go too.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
Far we're gathering more important insights and retirement ways devinment
The Haven Financial Group Radio. Show we'll be right. Back stick.
Around you've got, Questions we've got. Answers your tune to
The Haven Financial Group Radio show with your Host Larry
kulvig And Kim. Karragan now back to the.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
Show good morning once, again and welcome to The Haven
Financial Group Radio. Show I'm Larry, kulviig founder AND ceo
of The Haven Financial, group celebrating ten years of business
here in The metro. Area ten. YEARS i don't know
how that time went by so, quickly but you, know
we Have Kyle, thomas Certified Financial planner on Our Haven
Investment Investment team assisting us with this show and talking
(34:45):
about you, know retirement, topics inflation and interest. Rates because
it just, continues it will always, continue and how does
it affect? You do you know how it affects? You
if you, DON'T i encourage you to call one two
five four eighty four, Hundred come on in for a complimentary.
Consultation we'll discuss everything about, retirement and we'll take notes and,
(35:09):
listen and you may find something out that you simply
didn't even know nor nobody even asked, you and just
that in itself might be something that could be very
valuable as you plan for.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Retirement certainly take a lot of the stress away if
someone just asks you a few, questions that is for.
Speaker 4 (35:26):
Sure, Right kyle is with, us And, kyle.
Speaker 3 (35:29):
We've been talking about The Federal reserve and lowering interest,
rates and as we have said over and over, here you,
know we've seen two interest rate drops and a third
could be on the. Way we've talked about some of
the decisions that you need to make as they relate
to your retirement in these times as interest rates come
down and the impact interest rates might have on your retirement.
(35:50):
Planning but let's talk about some of the mistakes that
you want to try to avoid as we are in
this decreasing rate. Time you, know as you're. Changing so
we've talked about the idea that people may be making some.
Changes this is an actionable. Time so as they make those,
changes what are some of the things that they want to.
Speaker 5 (36:10):
Avoid, yeah a really big one that you know we
take into consideration that separates US i believe is not
factoring in. Taxes so we absolutely factor in taxes on
every single transaction that we. Make if you're going to,
reallocate sell some stocks and buy some, bonds, well how
(36:35):
much of a capital gain are you going to take
from those stocks that you're? Selling and then what account
are you buying those bonds? In because the bonds are
going to have interest that's going to be, Taxable so
are you going to put that in a tax deferred,
count a tax free, count or a taxable. Count we
want to make sure that we're watching all of those
because that can majorly impact your, taxes you, know and
(36:58):
especially if you have to realize money at capital gains
rates versus ordinary income tax. Rates so that's that is
a really big one that is not typically thought, of
and it can change your tax.
Speaker 6 (37:12):
Picture another one is chasing.
Speaker 5 (37:15):
Yield so you don't want to just necessarily throw a
bunch of money into these higher yields right now if
it doesn't you, know warrant it for your risk. Profile you,
know you always want to stay long term approach minded
because keep in mind when these rates get, lowered stocks
tend to do well in that time as. Well so
(37:38):
you don't want to overextend yourself in either direction with
stocks or bonds or even cash for that, matter because you,
know cash can having too much cash on the sidelines
can can hurt you either. Way you, know we always
want you to have that emergency fund that That larry
was talking, about you, know fifty to one hundred grand
(37:58):
just on the, sidelines because you never know if you
need to replace your roof or get a new. Car you,
know life, happens and we see it on a weekly
basis that you, know people need access to. That so's
that's almost more important than any of this other, stuff
is to have that kind of emergency fund on the.
Sideline but you don't want to overallocate to that cash
because you're actually going to be losing on that. Cash you,
(38:22):
know if inflation is two and a half percent or
three percent and you're in, cash well that, piece you're
actually losing your negative whatever inflation is because you didn't
gain anything on. That so there's definitely a lot of
things to keep in. Mind and you, know that's WHY
i was, saying it's really nice to have a partner
to talk through with this, stuff because there's a lot
(38:45):
of details that go into.
Speaker 3 (38:46):
It, WELL i think that you, know as we watch
these interest rates fluctuate and all the different things that
have been happening uncertainty in the, economy people get a little.
Overwhelmed AND i feel confident there are a lot of
people out there who have just said they're pulling their
money out to everything and going to stand by and,
wait and that you've just said is not a real
smart way to go about. This there are other ways
(39:10):
to go so that your money continues to work for.
You let's talk about some of the tools out there
that exist that you do not want to, avoid like
concentrating your inter your investments in a single asset class
or tool that used to provide what they. Needed sometimes
people will maybe don't not not do that.
Speaker 5 (39:30):
Right, yeah there, is especially with these last few, years
a lot of people that we're seeing with an over
allocation to large CAP us. Stocks well partially because that's
been the area that that's done well in the in
the stock, market so naturally their account is going to
be overweight to those specific. Areas but also people tend,
(39:56):
to you, know chase the, bull and that's where the
bull has been with THE us large cap. Stocks and you,
know that's why you want to stay diversified because a
lot of times people can get into it too late
and then the market shifts and it's a different type
of asset class that's in. Favor large growth has been
(40:17):
the one that's been in favor of the last couple of.
Years but one Thing i'll say is large value actually
outpaces large growth, historically, Right so make sure that we're
not over allocated to large, growth because that's all the
big names that you hear, about you, know The Magnificent,
seven those.
Speaker 6 (40:34):
Are all large.
Speaker 5 (40:35):
Growth there's a lot of great large value companies out,
there and they also you, know present dividends and stability
with their, financials, Right so keep that in mind and
make sure that we're diversified to small caps and international
and emerging markets and all these different, things and that
we're diversified in bonds. TOO a lot of people only
(40:56):
think that there's one kind of, bond, really and there's
many different types of. Bonds there's intermediate, bonds there's short term,
bonds there's treasury, bonds inflation protected, bonds so that match
the inflation numbers, there so we.
Speaker 6 (41:12):
Can diversify and you, know.
Speaker 5 (41:13):
Everywhere and it's important to do that because all these
different categories have been the best category in any given,
year and we have charts that show. That so that's
why it's important to, diversify because we have no idea
when those years are going to.
Speaker 3 (41:29):
Come SO i think we've learned today that as the
interest rates come down and there's some fluctuation in inflation
and the economy is continuing to, stabilize this can be
a time to take. Advantage this can be an opportunity
for retirees to maybe make some, changes rebalance if you,
(41:52):
will if you have a partner to do it.
Speaker 2 (41:55):
With, yeah What i'll say is all these retirement puzzle
pieces say it every, Week we talk about it every.
Week yes we talk about interest rates and, inflation and
yes they affect our lives and our money and they
always have they always. Will you, know being in the right,
place having a plan and all these retirement puzzle. Pieces
if you're, listing do you have the rights risk, tolerance
(42:17):
do you have the right? Portfolio does it actively does
it match what you really should be doing at this
point in your? Portfolio income, planning tax, planning tax, prep tax,
preparation having somebody that you're just not dropping off and picking,
up you, know social, security timing, strategies you, know having that,
discussion making an educated. Decision you, know do you have a, trust,
(42:40):
will powers of, attorney the estate, planning things that will
protect us while we're living and also when we're, gone
for the legacy of your family and the kids and
whomever is important to, you, charities et, cetera long term,
care life insurance, reviews it's annual, enrollment it's open, Enrollment,
medicare that advantage the supplement isabella and at the. Office
(43:01):
if this sounds, overwhelming and it can, be that's where
you should have a, partner because there are major costs
involving making the wrong decisions or even the right ones
at the wrong. Times and you could even make much
such mistakes even when you grasp the bigger. Picture so
give us a call for some, clarity for some, understanding
(43:22):
for a. Partner we are only a phone call away
six one, two five zero four eighty four hundred Or
havenfinancialgroup dot. Com we'd love to visit more with. YOU
i know retirement it can be, complicated but our job
is to simplify and help, people and we're honored to
have done that for ten.
Speaker 3 (43:41):
Years all right, again that number is six one two
five zero four eight four zero. Zero Give Haven Financial
group a call, today set up an. Appointment go. In
tell them you hurt us here on the radio and
you would like to talk about your. Retirement Kyle, thomas
thank you so very much for being.
Speaker 4 (43:58):
A part of the show.
Speaker 6 (43:58):
Today thank you so. Much it was great to be,
here all, right great to be with you you.
Speaker 7 (44:04):
Too investment advisory service is offered Through Guardian Well STRATEGIES.
Llc Haven Financial group And Guardian Well STRATEGIES llc are
not affiliated, companies and investments involve, risk, and unless otherwise,
stated are not. Guaranteed please consult with the qualified financial
advisor and or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed
(44:24):
herein and comments regarding its safe and secure investments and
guaranteed income streams only refer to fixed insurance. Products they
do not refer in any way to securities or investment advisory.
Products fixed insurance and annuity product guarantees are subject to
the claims paying ability of the issuing.
Speaker 1 (44:39):
Company