June 21, 2024 • 42 mins
Regular listeners know Charch has spent nearly two decades urging fantasy players to adopt a Do The Opposite draft strategy. But there's always a breaking point in which a runner's value is so good, he enters "must draft" territory. Charch and Mat break down the runners currently being taken in the first three rounds and pinpoint where Do The Opposite drafters should actually take them.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host, Paul Chargion.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Hey, everybody, welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. I am
Paul Charchi in joining me this week. Matt Harrison, Hi,
listening to be back. Three of the last Yeah, this
is a big stretch for you. Yeah, I mean, it's
totally my time of year. It is. It is. It's
Scott fish Next week we'll get into Scott fish Bowl
(00:44):
because the drafts are starting.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah. Are you doing a live draft this year? Are
you doing the online one live?
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I'm doing live in Minneapolis and live in Boston as well.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
You're doing both live drafts?
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (00:57):
How do you do that?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
They're not the same day.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
That's how kid take two teams though, I can what?
Speaker 1 (01:05):
I don't know. I just I just said, Scott said,
can you do? Can you do Minneapolis?
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Like? Sure? I don't know.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Maybe Scott Fishbowl is there is there there is a
one team cap. Oh, maybe I don't have two teams
I get maybe for one of them. I don't. I
don't get a team. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Well, I'll be at the Minneapolis draft. Okay, so I'll
see you there.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
You want to pick me up on the way.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
I could.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
It's downtown Minneapolis this year. It's not in the middle,
it's not practically Wisconsin like it was before.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
That's exciting stuff. I can't I can't wait for that
uh plenty to get to in this show. Longtime listeners
know all about do the Opposite before it was called zero,
running back a decade before it was called do the Opposite?
Speaker 3 (01:48):
When did you come up with the opposite as a
draft strategy?
Speaker 1 (01:51):
I've kept that issue with the magazine, and I believe
it was two thousand and three. Okay, I think Mike
Vick is on the cover as a falcon.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
I'm pretty sure I have that magazine still somewhere in
my basement. And and I remember, was it like the
inconceivable guy from the Princess Bride in that article or
was it something else? It was, Oh no, it was
a Seinfeld.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Because it was George Costanza Seinfeld reference. Longtime listeners, you
know what this is all about. It is, and especially
back then, it was all about everybody's taking running backs
at the top of the draft. You need to you
need to do the opposite, not just because that's what
everybody's doing, but there are a bunch of other great
reasons as well, Matt. You know many of those great
(02:35):
reasons to is shoe running backs at the top of
the draft.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Well, yeah, at that point, everybody was taking two running
backs with their first two picks, and maybe even three
running backs with their first three picks. And so you
came into the forefront and was like, hey, don't do that.
I'm gonna take two wide receivers and a top quarterback
or a top tight end, and then I'll fill quantity
over quality on running backs because we know that it
(03:00):
flips so often in the running back position. And some
of the things that I found even just last year,
only eleven total running backs were able to manage ten
touchdowns last season.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Yeah, that seems like.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
A low barrier. That includes receiving touchdown, That includes receiving touchdowns.
By the way PPR leagues, I mean, they're the popular,
they're the preferred way to do it. Now, twenty two
wide receivers had more catches than the top running back
from last year.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
That's amazing.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
And then for context, in twenty twenty two, just a
year before, Austin Eckler had one hundred and seven catches.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Out, which is unusually high.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
That was high, But Christian McCaffrey had eighty five, so
that was pretty high too. But only three wide receivers
had more catches than Austin Eckler. And as we're a
very reactionary society in fantasy football very much, we tried
to play back last year. So this year is going
to be the heaviest do the opposite draft year of
(03:56):
all time. I'm fairly sure.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
I think you're exactly right about that. A couple more
things here. The core premise of do the opposite zero
running back is the failure rate of running backs is
by a margin way higher than all the other positions.
So why are you putting your most valuable draft capital
into the position that is the highest failure rate? And
then you really have to hit, just hit home runs
(04:19):
through the rest of your draft if those running backs
don't pan out. Running Backs have the shortest viable career span,
you know, as we all know, short of Hall of famers,
ye know, Adrian Peterson, who is viable for like eight years.
Most running most of the really good running backs from
from three years ago are not viable this year.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
The cliff is so short.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
It's so short, and it's so severe too, right there, Yes,
it's so severe. So and then if anything else goes
wrong with the team, it hurts the running back position.
Offensive line is bad or injured, hurts the running back.
Quarterback is bad or injured, hurts. The running back defense
is bad, hurts the running back because now your teams
that have deficit all the time and they're not running
(04:59):
the ball. Yeah, it's it is. There's so many reasons
to avoid running backs early. And here's a little more data.
And by the way, I should mention the court. What
we're going to talk about today is when would you
do the opposite? When would you undo the opposite? Undo
the opposite? When would you do the opposite? Of do
the opposite? Or do undo the opposite? That's a better phrase. Yeah,
let's do undo the opposite. I've got a couple more stats. Yeah,
(05:24):
last year, well we want to know them. The average
non running back drafted in the first two rounds, So
this would be quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers on average
lost eight positional spots from their draft position to their
actual position, meaning DeVante Adams was taking his wide receiver eight,
he finished his wide receiver sixteen. Okay, okay, So that's
(05:45):
our baseline for non runners. Yeah, how about runners? On average?
Runners dropped twenty two positional spots god from their draft
position to their actual position, meaning Tony Pollard was taken
a RB six, he finished his RB twa. So that's
a disaster, which is almost exactly where Tony Pollard was,
and that was almost exactly where Devontay Adam was. As
(06:07):
a couple of examples, that last year, after Christian McCaffrey,
who went first and he was a great pack, you
got exactly what you hope you get out of Christian McCaffrey.
The next eight runners after Christian McCaffrey that were drafted
by ADP that was Eckler, Bjon Chubb, Barkley, Pollard, King,
Henry Jacobs, and Najee finished as an with an average
(06:28):
of running back twenty eight. I mean, just apocalyptically bad
if you took any runner other than Christian McCaffrey at
the top of your draft life.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
So it's not hard to convince people draft wide receivers. Now.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
We've been talking about this for you know, the better
part of twenty years now, but now everybody is going
to draft those wide receivers in the first two rounds.
And what we kind of did today is I'm going
to kind of pick your brain on this, and we're
gonna go, at what point for these these running backs
that are going in the first three rounds. There's ten
of them exactly that are that are getting an ADP
(07:06):
of the first three rounds and it's only ten. Yeah, ten,
We're down to ten. It used to be the first
round was ten out of the first twelve. Yeah, we're
running backs exactly.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
So we're gonna look at that, and we're gonna kind
of go, hey, where do I stop my do the
opposite plan? Because this running back is is either good
right right here at ADP and I do love him
that much, or he fell a few picks down the
slide and it's like, oh it's too good to pass up.
Or he fell a few rounds down the slide and
(07:37):
even though I don't like this running back, I see
the value here.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
Yes, And that's you know, we're so we'll look at
these how many running backs do we look at the
ten ten running backs and you can play long at home.
At what point would you blink and go, okay, I'm
taking this guy?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
All right, Well let's start with Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
How about that? In many ways the hardest decision you've got.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Really, he's going off the board to pick one to one.
He finished number one in PPR Fantasy points last year,
had just over two thousand total yards and twenty one touchdowns. Now,
the year before he had almost nineteen hundred total yards
and thirteen scores.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
In every year he's been healthy for a full season,
he's had a minimum of sixty seven receptions, which makes
him very safe in PPR. But he did miss twenty
two games in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one with injury.
That and that's not that was not trivial. Those teams
that that hurt that did hurt you quite a bit.
He just turned twenty eight years old. But charge is
(08:34):
this a player? If you're sitting at one to one
in a draft, are you still taking Christian McCaffrey or
are you're going a different direction.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
I don't blame anybody who does take Christian McCaffrey at
the first overall pick. He was the most valuable player
last year. And we all, as you mentioned at the outset,
we all replayed last year. What could you know? Why
would it be any different next year? Every year it's different.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
It's weird they don't replay the season exactly.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
But for me, I'm there are just there are receivers
out there that I just know are gonna be great,
and I'm not passing those receivers. And for me, there's
six of them that I feel are just too good
for me, and five for sure maybe six so okay,
Ceedee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, I'm on
ros Saint Brown. I just don't see scenarios where anything
(09:18):
goes wrong with those guys in a significant way, even
Justin Jefferson, although we might touch on him a little
bit later. I just feel like these I feel like
they're all safe. After that tier, there's a j Brown,
there's Pokinakua. They're really tempting to but I think at
that point I would blink. So for me, I'm at
I'm at pick six at there's no draft in America where.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
He's not gonna be.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
He's not gonna be there.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
He's not gonna be He's not gonna be there.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
But I just believe that strongly and just in do
the opposite and taking the sure things with this. And
I you know, I'm old enough to remember those two
lost seasons with Christian McCaffrey. Now that puts me in
the minority. Where would you take him?
Speaker 3 (09:56):
I I think I'd still probably take him at one
just because of the other world oldly talent that he
possesses and the artic situation and the offense is just
absolutely just right for him. So I'm not as invested
in the DTO strategy as you are, but yeah, it's
definitely a question mark at some of these places. Let's
(10:16):
go on to the next running back drafted, and I
think you've already kind of answered this because Bryce Hall
has an ADP of five point seven, and you already
listed five wide receivers that you'd have definitely taking first,
you'd have over Okay, and then Christian McCaffrey. He finished
in number two in PPR points last season, which was
impressive as he was coming off an ACL surgery.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
And his offense was completely broken around him.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
Yeah, Zach Wilson was heading the offense for most of
the year. He finished with almost sixteen hundred total yards
and scored nine times last year.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Charge, why thank you for that opportunity to nine times?
Speaker 3 (10:53):
There it is thank you. He led all running backs
in the league last year with seventy six receptions as well.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Yeah, that way better receiver than I think people realize.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
Brice Hall definitely his seven game rookie season in twenty
twenty two, he showed flashes of brilliance before the knee injury.
He just turned twenty three years old, and he's got
Aaron Rodgers back behind center. So Charge, it doesn't sound
like you're gonna undo the opposite and pick Breese Hall
pick six. But how far would Breese Hall have to
fall for you to take him?
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Good player, really good player, But he's also relying on
Aaron Rodgers bouncing back at age forty. He'll turn forty
one in season. I still think I want some of
the sure thing wide receivers that are out there more
than I want I want to roll the dice on
any runner, even when I really I like as much
as Breese Hall, who is really good, But even his
own teammate Garrett Wilson's really really good, really good. Remember
(11:48):
he is ADP was what five last year, Yeah, because
we loved him and he was great, and he was
gonna have Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
And that's the season it looked like, oh my god,
this would be amazing.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
Yes, DeVante, Adam, Brandon, Ayuke, Nico Collins, Mike Evans. That's
the that's the tier. I've got to go drop down
before I'm considering Brice hall Is into that level, okay,
and that you know, really that's bringing us into the
end of the second round. So I'm I'm a full
round plus later on Breece hall because I you know,
(12:18):
I just I want I want those kinds of players.
And I still think there's enough question marks here that
I would go almost a full round later. You know,
give me, give me guys like Garrett Wilson ahead of
ahead of him for sure?
Speaker 3 (12:30):
Is Brice Hallier number two running back right now?
Speaker 1 (12:33):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (12:33):
Yes, okay, you mccaffreams, right now, Okay.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
I like I like him a lot.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
Well, I think we know what you're gonna say about
Bjon Robinson, who's going off the board at pick six
point seven. Let's just call it seven.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Let's do the rounding. Let's do the rounding.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Phillis okay, picked seven. Bijon finished as the number seven
ranked PPR back last year fourteen hundred total yards eight scores,
not bad for a rookie year with Desmond Ritter under center.
There's a new coaching staff, a new quarterback in Kurt
Cousins or Michael Pennix. Just kidding, just kidding, it's gonna
be Kirk Cousins. But Bijon only had four games last
(13:08):
season with sixteen or more carries and only scored four
rushing touchdowns last year. And for context, ye Tyler Algier
had four rushing touchdowns last year and had sixteen or
more carries in three games. It was more of a
split than people think. Now. Everybody's picking Bijon at pick
seven right now, so they think that he's gonna just
(13:30):
cannibalize all of Algier's carries. But is the upside of
Bijon enough for you to undo the opposite at any
point or is he long gone by the.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Time he's gonna be long gone? But yes, new coaches
Rahie Morrison and Zach Robinson, the offensive coordinator saying all
the right things about Jon Robinson, how they want to
really build an offense around him and utilize his special talents.
We'd love to hear that talk is cheap in June, right,
so you know we know talk is cheap in August.
Well it is. Who's ever had a bad OTAs you know,
(14:00):
other than Zach Wilson who apparently has been dreadful. But
you know it's they always say, guys look great. Now,
we want to utilize this guy's, you know, best shape of.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
His life, don't forget, best shape of his career.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
The one I even love more is we're we're taking
this insert insert position here. Let's just say running back,
We're lining them up in the slot. Yeah, that stuff
never pans out, never pans out in a meaningful way.
It's all lies, you know. I I we think Bejon
could be a special talent based what we saw in college.
(14:30):
We saw a few flashes of it last year, but
not consistently. Andy that was a very, very run heavy
offense that he was still playing. Now, granted we hated
the usage and the the way that Arthur Smith ran
that offense, but I still feel like there's I still
(14:51):
feel like there's just too many good wide receivers. Am
I going to pass by A J. Brown in the
Eagles offense? No, No, I'm not going to. You're not
for sure I'm not going to.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
No.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
In fact, there are the running backs I like more
than Bejon Robbinson. So there's you know, not only is
it to do the opposite thing, but also you know,
I'm I think Jonathan Taylor is sitting on a tremendous season.
We'll talk about him in a minute. So for me,
I'm still a whole I'm still a whole round lower
on Bjeon Robinson. I'm middle of the second round because
I want more of the sure thing, sure thing receivers
(15:20):
on my team.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
Middle of the second rounds where you're considering b Jeon Robinson.
All right, same rookie draft class. Jami Gibbs one of
two running backs going off the board right at the
first second round turn. He's going off right now at
about pick twelve. Gibbs finished as RB nine last year,
had twelve hundred total yards, scored eleven times. Dynamic and
impressive in just so many ways, but he scored fewer
(15:43):
touchdowns than his running mate David Montgomery and had about
forty fewer rushing attempts. He made up for it with
fifty two catches to Monty's sixteen. So his ADP seems
to dictate the fact that the fantasy community thinks he'll
take so much of the workload from Montgomery this year.
And I even hypot this, it's because Jamior Gibbs has
a cool name and David is a boring name to say.
(16:06):
So do you think do you think Gibbs gets more
of a workhorse role this year? No?
Speaker 1 (16:11):
I don't.
Speaker 3 (16:12):
Is he's not the one to turn for you? Then? No,
this is.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
This is the easiest guy I'm gonna let slide. And
I think you'll be stunned at how far I'm gonna
let Jamiir give you go. Oh really, And it's not
that he's he's great. Yeah, he's a great talent, But
Montgomery steals all the easy touchdowns up close. Monty had
nineteen carries just from inside the five yard line, and
he converted half of those into touchdowns. This sounds like
Fantasy Football weeklies training inside. It's gonna it's gonna be
(16:40):
coming your way, by the way, announcement coming on that
in the next week. Okay, the way to a fantasy
football training camp. Gibbs got half of the carries inside
the five, half of the touchdowns. Guys who have to
score from distance are a dangerous gamble. Oh yeah, and.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
That's what all this is.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
I mean Jamior Gibbs with an ADP of third, he's
going at the first.
Speaker 3 (17:01):
Pick of the second round. Yeah, and you're taking.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Somebody who has to score from distance. That's so dangerous.
No way am I.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Doing caught out, It's dumb.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
I'm I would take Gibbs at double his ADP. I'm
looking at roughly pick thirty. In fact, I would rather
have his teammates Sam Laporta before Jamiir Gibbs.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
You're taking two lions above Jamiir Gibbs. I'm saying the
third hour.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
That's right.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
The third lion Jonathan Taylor. You talked about him a
little bit before. He's going at right about the turn
as well, one two turn pick thirteen. Taylor missed a
bunch of times with injury, a bunch of time with
injuries in twenty twenty two and the first part of
twenty three, where he spent the first four weeks on
the pup list. He finished RB thirty three in total
PPR points, but RB eleven in points per game. Yeah,
(17:51):
he's two years removed from nearly twenty two hundred total
yards and twenty touchdowns. Wasn't that that was crazy? Through
his last six game of twenty twenty three, he did
score seven times. Yep, but that was two different runs
of three games as he missed weeks thirteen through fifteen
with injury. Anthony Richardson back from injury. That offense should improve,
but will it improve enough for you to undo the
(18:13):
opposite with Jonathan Taylor? And where?
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Now? Now, this is a guy I'm interested in much
closer to his ADP because there's nobody else take the
ball from him at any time. There's no Zach Moss. There,
there's no Zach Moss. Your back of his even hole.
That's it. I mean this is they are gonna work tailor,
and so I get the goal line back, I get
(18:35):
the players gonna get the ball really all one hundred
yards of the field. Indy had the sixth best run
blocking offensive line last year by Pro Football Focus, the
eleventh best run block win rate by ESPN. I just
I love I worry a little bit about the hell
because he does have these nagging injuries which is, by
the way, welcome to running backs, right, But I would
take him much closer to ADP I've got him going
(18:57):
out for me. I would take him at position twenty,
so he's would you say, thirteen or fourteen. He's the
second round, mid second round. So that's the point at
which I'm really I'm interested in Taylor because I just
I like him. I like his opportunities so much.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
And that'll probably vibe with some of how your do
the opposite builds would be if Taylor were to last
that long. Basically where you would pick in the fourth
or fifth position, take a wide receiver. There, Jonathan Taylor's
coming back to you in the second round.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
Possibly, that's maybe right where I would blink on Taylor.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Okay, well that's half of them. Should we take a
quick break.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Yeah, good call. Let's take a break and we come back.
Saquon Barkley just going two picks later than Jonathan Taylor. Yeah,
this one's not close. We'll talk about him when we
come back. Fantasy Football Weekly Paul Jargy and Matt Harrison
Shock Fantasy. You've got a promo code for people who
want to subscribe. It's just twenty five dollars for the
whole year.
Speaker 3 (19:49):
Yeah, FFW twenty twenty twenty four. I think it's in
the show notes.
Speaker 1 (19:55):
Tend the show notes in the show notes, go check
it out the show here in the show notes. Check
out our new discord a link to the discord channel.
Join our conversations there. We're just discording today about some
concerts that are starting to roll through town.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Yeah, there's a there's a couple of fun concerts this summer.
I'm thinking about. Actually, one of my favorite bands is
like from you know, the nineties, a SKO punk outfit
called Less than Jake.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Yeah, I remember you liked it Less than Jake. And
I think of one of the listeners, one of the
we have a listener from that band or something, right,
I don't know, maybe maybe, But they're doing a concert
in Jamaica, Oh Boy, in January where they're playing at
a resort four nights in a row.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
It's an all inclusive resort. They're playing with bowling for
soup as well. I don't you you'll you'd have heard
some of their songs. Okay, but but four nights in
a row, four concerts in a row.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
For bands I love.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
I would do that it's it's kind of I would
do that. And my my oldest son who's in college,
he's like, he's into this kind of music too, so
he's like, Dad.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Let's go. The closest thing like that that's ever happened
to me is a band that I A couple of
bands that I love. There was a I like a
genre called post rock, and there was a post rock
cruise and they had like three four bands that I
loved on the cruise and they're all performing constantly on
the cruise ship, and I'm like, this would be awesome,
but it was in football season. I couldn't go. That
(21:15):
was it? All right, Let's get back to get back
to our undoing. The opposite The next runner up is I.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
Think we know where this is gonna go. Saquon Barkley,
now a Philadelphia Eagle, is going off with the third
pick in the second round, pick fifteen. Barkley finished at
RB thirteen in a pretty horrible Giants offense last year,
but he had over just over twelve hundred yards and
he did it get ten scores. But he joins a
Philly offense that has huge upside, but also the tush
(21:46):
push is there. Eagles running backs only combined for eight
total touchdowns last year, the fifth fewest in the league. Well,
Jalen Hurts had fifteen rushing scores.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
Right, it's certainly gonna be one of my talking.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
There's no doubt he has talent. But does the talent
meet enough opportunity for you to undo the opposite for
Saquon Barkley anywhere in the first three rounds, you are
wrong about the talent. You don't think he has talent.
Speaker 1 (22:12):
Saquon Barkley is cooked. Oh, let's put some numbers against it.
He finished his Pro Football Focuses running back forty three. Overall,
he ranked fifty fourth in elusiveness. He ranked thirtieth in
rushing yards over expectation percentage according to Next Gen Stats.
His quarterback is going to eat all the short touchdowns,
(22:35):
and he doesn't catch like he used to, and Philadelphia
uses often a maddening time share. He had the advantage
of the Giants of being on the field constantly that
there's no such suggestion that's going to happen in Philadelphia.
He could be sitting on a five touchdown season. I
would much rather have the recently re upped Ramandre Stevenson.
(22:58):
I would rather have Jonathan Brook. I'd rather have Zamir White.
You know where those guys are.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
Going, like RB fifteen to twenty, pick ninety.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
Yeah, I am so far off Saquon Barkley. To me,
we have to get to round eight. He is an
adp of the middle of round two. I would take
Saquon Barkley in round eight.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
So if we're in a we're in a draft and
there's a bunch of cloned charges in this draft that
I'll carry your same draft strategy, and Saquon's there in
the sixth round, you're still not taking him.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
I would take the four running backs. They just meant
three running backs I just mentioned before. I would take him. So, no,
I'm so far off of Saquon.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
I love it. I love Do you see it differently? No,
I absolutely love the strong take. I look forward to
all these preseason shows where you're trashing Saquon and.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
We'll find out if I'm right or wrong about this.
But man, he to me, he looks he looks cooked.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
He might be all right.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Who's our next running Uh?
Speaker 3 (23:51):
You know a guy we talked about a little bit
in the preseason less year Brian Johnson special that was
Kyron Williams. He delivered in a major way. Right now,
he's going late second pick twenty two. Williams finished as
RB seven, had exactly thirteen fifty total yards and fifteen
scores in only twelve games.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
I was gonna say by Fantasy points per game, Kyroen might.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Have been RB two RB two in points per game.
Williams was absolutely money when he was on the field.
He only had two games all year where he finished
with fewer than fourteen PPR points. He missed five weeks
in the middle of your season, but if you survive that,
he probably won you a title with big games in
all of the Fantasy playoff weeks, including three scorers in
Week seventeen. Now, Kyrien was a bellcal last year out
(24:37):
of necessity. The Rams had no other halfway decent runners
on the roster, and he's not heavily involved in the
passing game. He had only thirty two receptions, which was
twenty eight The monkst running backs in the Rams. They
brought in Blake Korum in the drafts. His Korum and
the mid season injury enough to scare you off of
Kyron Williams in the first three rounds. Or was you
(24:57):
undo the opposite.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
This is the hardest one yet, this is brutal. So
it's the end of the second round. Here's Kyrien Williams.
I'm looking at a guy who was RB two in
point Fantasy points per game was last year just him
catching lightning in a bottle, aided by the fact they
had zero competition, nobody else with worth a damn in
that backfield. Then they go out and they put real
(25:20):
draft equity into Blake corm Since Todd Gurley, Sean McVay
has almost never used a workhorse back until last year
when he had to because there were no other good backs,
you know, between Gurley and Willian it did. It ended
Todd Gurley's career early. I think McVeigh knows that it's
always been a rotational backfield for Sean McVay between those,
(25:44):
you know, in the four seasons between those two events.
So I don't trust Kyrien Williams to get the big workhorse.
But the other part of it, that's that that that
makes this hard. William's pretty dark good. He finished sixth
in total rushing yards over expectation, seventh in rushing yards
over expectation per carry, tenth in rushing yards over expectation
(26:06):
percentage he finished. His pro football focuses AREB three ranked overall,
fifteenth and elusiveness. This is you know, this is where
this is about where Kyrien Williams belongs. I might go
a half round later so I can get some tight ends.
I loved Laporta, Kelsey McBride and get an a lead
(26:27):
tight end. I still want Jalen Hurts. I want all
those rushing, those free rushing touchdowns. I think those are
the group that I would take sooner. They're half round later.
So Kyron Williams is very close to I think going
correctly even in a due the opposite mindset. But I'd
still wait half.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
Around so because he's a late second round pick, and
at that turn there you'd be going, I have an
early third. Let's hope he gets back.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Let's hope he gets back to me.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
Okay, I want to see what you think about Devon
ah Chain here. He might be the most polarizing player
in the first two rounds. Currently going off with the
last pick in the second round, pick twenty four. Last year,
a Chane only played eleven games, finished RB twenty five,
but more importantly finished RB four In PPR points per game?
(27:11):
Do you know who was RB three in PPR points
per game? Moster Raheem moster Ah Chain had just under
a thousand total yards and scored eleven times. But when
you factor in that his first real action in week three,
he scored four times and had two hundred and thirty
three of those.
Speaker 1 (27:26):
Yards, by the way, which nobody started him for that gamer? Yeap,
so about a quarter of his production came in one
game when nobody had him and nobody.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
Had him in the lineups. Moster, by the way, led
the league in rushing scores last year with eighteen added
three more through the air, and he's going off at
pick ninety two RB thirty.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Hell so he's my do the opposite target. Yeah, that's
the that's the show we should follow up with. Yeah,
or who are the running backs you're taking in rounds five, six, seven, eight?
We can do that in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
Let's do that shit. The fantasy world seems to think
that a chan's taking most, if not all, of most production. Apparently, yes,
is the upside of a chane worthy of a late
second to early third or how late does he have
to fall for you to take him?
Speaker 1 (28:11):
And most of it is older. I think he's thirty. Yeah,
and so maybe not a lot of mileage, very low
mileage because he's been dinged up. He was under used
for a long time. So a Chan's an electric runner
for sure. He averaged almost eight yards per carry, which
is insane. He ranked number one in rushing yards over
expectation last year two point nine rushing yards per carry
(28:34):
over expectation. Wow, more than double the next closest player.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
Crazy.
Speaker 1 (28:39):
It is crazy. The next closest Christian McCaffrey, at one
point three yards over expectation. He posted two point nine.
He missed six games last year, after which, after he
missed that big block of games in the middle of
the season, Mike McDaniel seemed pretty gun shy about using
a Chan as much, giving him only ten carries per game. Okay,
and that's that where he me a little bit. Miami's
(29:01):
got the league's muddiest backfield. You mentioned moster, but let's
not forget thorn in your side. Guys like Jeff Wilson
and Salvon Ahmed and now fourth round rookie Jalen Wright
is in this mix too. I mean, that's real draft equity.
They have to get they need to get Jalen right
out of the field too, but that's the lead.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
Well, not only that, but their wide receivers have such
a low a dot on so many of these things
that they catch the ball a short distance from the line.
It's that PPR yardage for him.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
In best ball, you know, in best ball specifically, I
think you can justify this end of the second round
ADP for those blow up games. Yeah, I think in
any other format, end of the second round for a
chan is absurd. Isaiah Pacheco gets is exactly double eight
(29:49):
chans ADP at pick forty eight. I'd rather have Pacheco
for all the safety. I know he's going to get
the vast majority of the work on a very good offense.
Similarly good offense. So you're looking he's picked for eight,
that's double eight chance.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
So you're looking fifth round minimum.
Speaker 1 (30:04):
This is the last pick of fourth round. So I'd
rather have Pachecko. He's the last pick of the fourth round.
So I guess I'm saying fifth round on David Devon
a hand.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
All right, out of here, get out of here. Travis
Eten currently going off at pick twenty seven in the
third round in his rookie campaign, he averaged five point
one yards per carry. That number crash down to three
point eight last year, but he did have twelve total
scores in close to fifteen hundred total yards in just
a workhorse role. That was good enough to make him
(30:35):
RB three in total PPR points and was pretty consistent.
He has played all seventeen games in both seasons, after
missing the entirety of his twenty twenty one draft year
with an injury. Last year, he had double digit PPR
points in twelve games. He had three or more receptions
in all but three, and he scored in half the games.
You started him man with four multi score efforts. By
(30:58):
the way, Tank Bigsby, which was your guy last year. Yeah,
scored in the first two games. I know that never again.
I never saw the field again. Disappeared. Yeah, that was
that was bad think. I think he had like thirty
carries in the final fifteen games.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
I don't have my tanks for nothing.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
You have a sad trombone ski. I do sure.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
I feel like I had half of this right, I
had half of that equation right. I didn't trust Travis
Etn to be a workhorse runner, and he wasn't I
thought it would go right to Bigsby as the backup. Now,
in fairness, Etn started the season really well, but then
he faded pretty badly because he's just not built to
be a work horse. He finished the season averaging three
(31:43):
point eight yards per carry. That is dreadful. He finished
thirty sixth in rushing Over expectation, he topped fifty seven
rushing yards. Fifty seven rushing yards is not a lot.
He topped fifty seven rushing yards in five of his
seventeen games. That's all. Doug Peterson says he wants to
rely less on Etn, and he's talking up Tank Bigsby.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
I'm not gonna time.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
I mean, there's nothing I'm gonna say that's gonna make
anybody believe in Tank Bigsby. So not gonna try in
round three, which is where Travis Etn is going, I
can get a sure thing wide receiver, and get a
shirt thing quarterback, and get a sure thing tight end.
I would take Etn round five roughly double his ADP.
(32:28):
I'm not a I wasn't a believer last year. I
think he his productivity was just him being a functional
running back who got almost all the work in his offense.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
That really was it. It was just opportunity, that's.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
All it was. I don't think he's a special back.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
All right. Uh you know one of the more special
backs in in maybe the last decade, Derrick Henry. He's
an old face in a new place. He joins the
Baltimore Ravens through free agency. In those all purple uniforms,
he might look a little bit like Grimace. Yeah, he's
currently going off the board in the middle of the
third round.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
McDonald's phased Grimace out.
Speaker 3 (33:04):
Oh have you heard about the Mets and Grimace? The
New York Mets. No, Like they had Grimace throughout the
first pitch at a game like like two weeks ago,
and the Mets have like lost one game since then.
He's in good luck so that like all the Mets
fans are converting to the Church of Grimace. That's awesome.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
I love it. I love it.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
So with Derek Henry, you pretty much know what this
state in his career that he offers nothing in the
passing game. So it's much more impressive that he finished
as RB twelve and PPR points. He posted just under
fourteen hundred total yards and twelve scores all of his
touchdowns were on the ground. Henry has posted double digit
rushing touchdowns in six straight seasons. What makes that more
(33:44):
impressive is he only played eight games in twenty twenty one. Wow,
he joins a Baltimore team and you know, might bring
just a completely different dimension to Lamar Jackson in that offense.
He's six y three, two hundred and forty seven pounds,
but he's thirty years old and he's average twenty carries
per game for the last six years Straight's.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
A lot of mileage. And remember he didn't early in
his career. He was lightly used for those first couples. Yeah,
and been then since then, it's just pounding him in.
Speaker 3 (34:14):
It was it DeMarco Murray.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
This done.
Speaker 3 (34:19):
He only had really one injury in all of those years.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
All the eight are so amazing.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Yeah, but Kenn's body hold up to the punishment after
age thirty touchdown upside absolutely tremendous. I think when we
talked about the AFC UH North in our in our
preview podcast, you were like, would it surprise you of
Derrick Henry was the highest rushing touchdown getter of this season.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
No, not at all, not at all.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
But in the third round middle third. Are you taking
Derrick Henry in a DTO draft strategy?
Speaker 1 (34:49):
This one is also a little bit tricky unless Keaton
Mitchell recovers quickly and gets back to being as elusive
as he was, which is hard to do off the
ACL That was what made Keaton Mitchell explosive SIV was
how hard it was to get a clean hit on him.
Probably isn't gonna have there and.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
They're talking about him midseason. Yeah, like toplist almost for sure.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
Right, So Keith Mitchell doesn't look like a factor, just
as Hill's just a guy.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
So the opportunity in Baltimore's high over the past three seasons,
Baltimore's top top six and rushes from inside the five
and running play percentage from inside the five, there's gonna
be a lot of goal line opportunities. And of course,
over the past three years, as you would guess, Derrick
Henry leads all rushers in goal line touchdowns. You know
who leads all players in goal line touchdowns the last
three years?
Speaker 3 (35:37):
This is Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1 (35:40):
He actually doesn't get many carries at all.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
I suppose he doesn't.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Yeah, the right idea?
Speaker 3 (35:44):
Is it hurts? Right?
Speaker 1 (35:45):
It is? Yes, Jalen Hurts sixty one.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
Yeah, sixty one.
Speaker 1 (35:49):
By the way, Jalen Hurts starts, we're talking ADP a
little bit. Jalen Hurts right now is going off the
board at pick du picked twenty six.
Speaker 3 (36:01):
I think it's because I believe he only had fifteen
pass touchdowns last year.
Speaker 1 (36:06):
I just I think the Eagles are gonna bounce back
in a big way.
Speaker 3 (36:08):
Probably.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
I think I think they're bad coaching, some bad injuries,
some bad luck, and I think they're a bounce back anyway.
I'm not I'm intrigued by Henry, but he hurts you.
He hurts you obviously in a PPR league where he
doesn't give you any of that, He's gonna give you
some dud games when he doesn't score. Yeah, that's coming,
you know. So if he doesn't score, he's gonna get
some games where he has sixteen carries for thirty eight yards,
(36:31):
chips in nothing through the air. He's gonna give you
some He's gonna give you some bummer games, unfortunately, but
the touchdown upside is very real. It wouldn't surprise me
if he scored in two thirds of his games this year, right,
and a couple of those will be multiple.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Touchdown you look, you're looking at a projected twelve to
fifteen touchdowns maybe yep, on the high end.
Speaker 1 (36:52):
So currently going middle of round three, I think the
place where I would I would bend my do the
opposite tendencies for Derrick Henry would be roughly after my
shirting quarterbacks. To me, that's Alan and Hurts are gone.
My top three tight ends who we love, right, you
got Laporta, you got Kelsey and McBride. Okay, although it's
deeper in tight ends this year than it has been forever.
(37:14):
All Right, that's a stop topic for a future show.
By the way, it sure is. Oh, you don't have
to panic on tight ends for for a long time.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
I actually think there's five tight ends, and I don't
want anything to do with anybody after that.
Speaker 1 (37:24):
Okay, all right, so right, we'll talk about that. I
think there's gonna be guys like Jake Ferguson. They're gonna
work out. That's just me. The area where I'm interested
in taking Derrick Henry is in this part of my draft,
DK Metcalf, DeVante Smith, Ken Walker, Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews.
(37:45):
This is the area that feels about.
Speaker 3 (37:46):
Right, that's about where Derrick Henry's going.
Speaker 1 (37:49):
That's round four. So that's that's where I like him,
and that's about where I would take him, I think.
So just a couple picks, Ye, I'm about I'm about
a half round or around half lower than Henry. Now
in a guillotine league, beware because he's gonna those dud
games from Henry. Those are gonna get you cut.
Speaker 3 (38:07):
Yeah, I mean, and and you don't have the PPR
aspect to booye you there, so he's got to get
you the touchdowns, got to get you the touch So
do do you think Derek Henry in a guillotine league
drops to like fourth or fifth round or are people
nuts enough to go I'm gonna take him in the
second round.
Speaker 1 (38:21):
I think there's still enough newbies out there that don't
understand the nuances of the format well enough that he's
gonna he's gonna go earlier than he should.
Speaker 3 (38:28):
Especially with eighteen team leagues.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
Eighteen team leagues, and that's when the running back panic
is so real in an eighteen team league, when people
are looking at if I don't take a running back
in the first two rounds and you know by the
time now it's back to me, right, it's you know,
now what am I gonna do? Meanwhile, I'll be like
Zamir White, bring it on charge when to undo the Opposite?
(38:53):
Did you have any real problems with any of my
takes on this? No, this is pretty out of the
odd way, out of lockstep with the norm.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
You know, I thought it would be good for the
listeners to hear you mister do the opposite himself, go hey,
where would I take these guys? So I think it's
an interesting exercise for us, and I do like the
idea of doing my do the Opposite running back targets
in a future show where we can go, you know
guys in rounds four through seven?
Speaker 1 (39:19):
Yeah, yeah, who hound on the table for That's the
whole premise of do the Opposite is go hit those
running backs in the middle rounds. That's that's where last
year's top ten came out of. Yeah, you know it's
Christian McCaffrey and then most of the US are running
backs that ended up his top ten running backs for
round four, round six, round eight. So yeah, we'll go
mind those rounds? Is uh? I want to mention this.
(39:41):
We alluded to this just briefly, Ramondre Stevenson got a hefty,
pretty solid good new deal yeah Thursday with the Patriots.
I'm team Ramandre. I think he's a really good running
back who got used weirdly and poorly last year on
a totally dysfunctional offense. Yeah, I'm optimistic that Remandre is
going to come back. He's perfect do the opposite candidate.
(40:02):
Let me let me see if I can find where
he's going off the board right now, he is currently
going off the board Pick sixty three, running back twenty.
This is perfect for do the Opposite. I get a
workhorse back on an offense that almost has to get better,
right it kick it worse? Not that it was last year.
That was mac Jones.
Speaker 3 (40:20):
It can't get Bailey. No, no, it could be the same.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
No, it can't be the same.
Speaker 3 (40:26):
It could be the same. It can't be.
Speaker 1 (40:29):
Kobet and Drake May. If Drake May is good enough
to be better than Jacoby Brissett.
Speaker 3 (40:33):
Yeah, those guys they probably do it just enough.
Speaker 1 (40:36):
They I think, you know, their abilities alone will raise
the bar for Ramandri Stevenson. I think I love him
as a value pick at selection sixty three running back
twenty exactly.
Speaker 3 (40:47):
All right, you're talking fish Bowl with mister Scott fish next.
Speaker 1 (40:51):
Next week, Scott fish Ball. I want to talk about
the nuances of this year's scoring system. Every year I
saw it gets more complicated. I got to try to
keep up with all the all the very and changes.
We got a bunch of first down scoring yep, built
in this year. And yeah, we'll talk through what to
do with your Scott fish Bowl team.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
I'd like to mention one thing too on that Scott
fish Bowl and Fantasy Cares aspect League Safe, something near
and dear to your heart.
Speaker 1 (41:16):
I'm familiar.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
You can now make donations straight from League Safe too,
Fantasy Cares. You can round up your bill to get in,
your leak fee to get in, or choose to do
a dollar or five dollars or ten dollars, the cool
one hundred dollars if you want. But all the donations
go straight to Fantasy Cares. And we at Leak Safe
we got a goal of ten thousand dollars and we're
(41:37):
already I mean we're in June right now, and I
think we're already we're already at like almost two thousand bucks.
So wow, we're feeling pretty good. We might have to
up our goal a little bit.
Speaker 1 (41:46):
You might wind up your goal, yeah, but ten thousand's great.
I need you to stay under like seven two hundred
because that's what our super chop Scott fish bols super chop.
So I need you to stand her there.
Speaker 3 (42:00):
For totally reason's right. We reject your donation.
Speaker 1 (42:06):
All right, thanks for listening, everybody. We'll talk to you
next week. Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production
of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host, Paul Chargion.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Hey, everybody, welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. I am
Paul Charchi in joining me this week. Matt Harrison, Hi,
listening to be back. Three of the last Yeah, this
is a big stretch for you. Yeah, I mean, it's
totally my time of year. It is. It is. It's
Scott fish Next week we'll get into Scott fish Bowl
(00:44):
because the drafts are starting.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah. Are you doing a live draft this year? Are
you doing the online one live?
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I'm doing live in Minneapolis and live in Boston as well.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
You're doing both live drafts?
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (00:57):
How do you do that?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
They're not the same day.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
That's how kid take two teams though, I can what?
Speaker 1 (01:05):
I don't know. I just I just said, Scott said,
can you do? Can you do Minneapolis?
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Like? Sure? I don't know.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Maybe Scott Fishbowl is there is there there is a
one team cap. Oh, maybe I don't have two teams
I get maybe for one of them. I don't. I
don't get a team. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Well, I'll be at the Minneapolis draft. Okay, so I'll
see you there.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
You want to pick me up on the way.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
I could.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
It's downtown Minneapolis this year. It's not in the middle,
it's not practically Wisconsin like it was before.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
That's exciting stuff. I can't I can't wait for that
uh plenty to get to in this show. Longtime listeners
know all about do the Opposite before it was called zero,
running back a decade before it was called do the Opposite?
Speaker 3 (01:48):
When did you come up with the opposite as a
draft strategy?
Speaker 1 (01:51):
I've kept that issue with the magazine, and I believe
it was two thousand and three. Okay, I think Mike
Vick is on the cover as a falcon.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
I'm pretty sure I have that magazine still somewhere in
my basement. And and I remember, was it like the
inconceivable guy from the Princess Bride in that article or
was it something else? It was, Oh no, it was
a Seinfeld.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Because it was George Costanza Seinfeld reference. Longtime listeners, you
know what this is all about. It is, and especially
back then, it was all about everybody's taking running backs
at the top of the draft. You need to you
need to do the opposite, not just because that's what
everybody's doing, but there are a bunch of other great
reasons as well, Matt. You know many of those great
(02:35):
reasons to is shoe running backs at the top of
the draft.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Well, yeah, at that point, everybody was taking two running
backs with their first two picks, and maybe even three
running backs with their first three picks. And so you
came into the forefront and was like, hey, don't do that.
I'm gonna take two wide receivers and a top quarterback
or a top tight end, and then I'll fill quantity
over quality on running backs because we know that it
(03:00):
flips so often in the running back position. And some
of the things that I found even just last year,
only eleven total running backs were able to manage ten
touchdowns last season.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Yeah, that seems like.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
A low barrier. That includes receiving touchdown, That includes receiving touchdowns.
By the way PPR leagues, I mean, they're the popular,
they're the preferred way to do it. Now, twenty two
wide receivers had more catches than the top running back
from last year.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
That's amazing.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
And then for context, in twenty twenty two, just a
year before, Austin Eckler had one hundred and seven catches.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Out, which is unusually high.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
That was high, But Christian McCaffrey had eighty five, so
that was pretty high too. But only three wide receivers
had more catches than Austin Eckler. And as we're a
very reactionary society in fantasy football very much, we tried
to play back last year. So this year is going
to be the heaviest do the opposite draft year of
(03:56):
all time. I'm fairly sure.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
I think you're exactly right about that. A couple more
things here. The core premise of do the opposite zero
running back is the failure rate of running backs is
by a margin way higher than all the other positions.
So why are you putting your most valuable draft capital
into the position that is the highest failure rate? And
then you really have to hit, just hit home runs
(04:19):
through the rest of your draft if those running backs
don't pan out. Running Backs have the shortest viable career span,
you know, as we all know, short of Hall of famers,
ye know, Adrian Peterson, who is viable for like eight years.
Most running most of the really good running backs from
from three years ago are not viable this year.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
The cliff is so short.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
It's so short, and it's so severe too, right there, Yes,
it's so severe. So and then if anything else goes
wrong with the team, it hurts the running back position.
Offensive line is bad or injured, hurts the running back.
Quarterback is bad or injured, hurts. The running back defense
is bad, hurts the running back because now your teams
that have deficit all the time and they're not running
(04:59):
the ball. Yeah, it's it is. There's so many reasons
to avoid running backs early. And here's a little more data.
And by the way, I should mention the court. What
we're going to talk about today is when would you
do the opposite? When would you undo the opposite? Undo
the opposite? When would you do the opposite? Of do
the opposite? Or do undo the opposite? That's a better phrase. Yeah,
let's do undo the opposite. I've got a couple more stats. Yeah,
(05:24):
last year, well we want to know them. The average
non running back drafted in the first two rounds, So
this would be quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers on average
lost eight positional spots from their draft position to their
actual position, meaning DeVante Adams was taking his wide receiver eight,
he finished his wide receiver sixteen. Okay, okay, So that's
(05:45):
our baseline for non runners. Yeah, how about runners? On average?
Runners dropped twenty two positional spots god from their draft
position to their actual position, meaning Tony Pollard was taken
a RB six, he finished his RB twa. So that's
a disaster, which is almost exactly where Tony Pollard was,
and that was almost exactly where Devontay Adam was. As
(06:07):
a couple of examples, that last year, after Christian McCaffrey,
who went first and he was a great pack, you
got exactly what you hope you get out of Christian McCaffrey.
The next eight runners after Christian McCaffrey that were drafted
by ADP that was Eckler, Bjon Chubb, Barkley, Pollard, King,
Henry Jacobs, and Najee finished as an with an average
(06:28):
of running back twenty eight. I mean, just apocalyptically bad
if you took any runner other than Christian McCaffrey at
the top of your draft life.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
So it's not hard to convince people draft wide receivers. Now.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
We've been talking about this for you know, the better
part of twenty years now, but now everybody is going
to draft those wide receivers in the first two rounds.
And what we kind of did today is I'm going
to kind of pick your brain on this, and we're
gonna go, at what point for these these running backs
that are going in the first three rounds. There's ten
of them exactly that are that are getting an ADP
(07:06):
of the first three rounds and it's only ten. Yeah, ten,
We're down to ten. It used to be the first
round was ten out of the first twelve. Yeah, we're
running backs exactly.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
So we're gonna look at that, and we're gonna kind
of go, hey, where do I stop my do the
opposite plan? Because this running back is is either good
right right here at ADP and I do love him
that much, or he fell a few picks down the
slide and it's like, oh it's too good to pass up.
Or he fell a few rounds down the slide and
(07:37):
even though I don't like this running back, I see
the value here.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
Yes, And that's you know, we're so we'll look at
these how many running backs do we look at the
ten ten running backs and you can play long at home.
At what point would you blink and go, okay, I'm
taking this guy?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
All right, Well let's start with Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
How about that? In many ways the hardest decision you've got.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Really, he's going off the board to pick one to one.
He finished number one in PPR Fantasy points last year,
had just over two thousand total yards and twenty one touchdowns. Now,
the year before he had almost nineteen hundred total yards
and thirteen scores.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
In every year he's been healthy for a full season,
he's had a minimum of sixty seven receptions, which makes
him very safe in PPR. But he did miss twenty
two games in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one with injury.
That and that's not that was not trivial. Those teams
that that hurt that did hurt you quite a bit.
He just turned twenty eight years old. But charge is
(08:34):
this a player? If you're sitting at one to one
in a draft, are you still taking Christian McCaffrey or
are you're going a different direction.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
I don't blame anybody who does take Christian McCaffrey at
the first overall pick. He was the most valuable player
last year. And we all, as you mentioned at the outset,
we all replayed last year. What could you know? Why
would it be any different next year? Every year it's different.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
It's weird they don't replay the season exactly.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
But for me, I'm there are just there are receivers
out there that I just know are gonna be great,
and I'm not passing those receivers. And for me, there's
six of them that I feel are just too good
for me, and five for sure maybe six so okay,
Ceedee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, I'm on
ros Saint Brown. I just don't see scenarios where anything
(09:18):
goes wrong with those guys in a significant way, even
Justin Jefferson, although we might touch on him a little
bit later. I just feel like these I feel like
they're all safe. After that tier, there's a j Brown,
there's Pokinakua. They're really tempting to but I think at
that point I would blink. So for me, I'm at
I'm at pick six at there's no draft in America where.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
He's not gonna be.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
He's not gonna be there.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
He's not gonna be He's not gonna be there.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
But I just believe that strongly and just in do
the opposite and taking the sure things with this. And
I you know, I'm old enough to remember those two
lost seasons with Christian McCaffrey. Now that puts me in
the minority. Where would you take him?
Speaker 3 (09:56):
I I think I'd still probably take him at one
just because of the other world oldly talent that he
possesses and the artic situation and the offense is just
absolutely just right for him. So I'm not as invested
in the DTO strategy as you are, but yeah, it's
definitely a question mark at some of these places. Let's
(10:16):
go on to the next running back drafted, and I
think you've already kind of answered this because Bryce Hall
has an ADP of five point seven, and you already
listed five wide receivers that you'd have definitely taking first,
you'd have over Okay, and then Christian McCaffrey. He finished
in number two in PPR points last season, which was
impressive as he was coming off an ACL surgery.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
And his offense was completely broken around him.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
Yeah, Zach Wilson was heading the offense for most of
the year. He finished with almost sixteen hundred total yards
and scored nine times last year.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Charge, why thank you for that opportunity to nine times?
Speaker 3 (10:53):
There it is thank you. He led all running backs
in the league last year with seventy six receptions as well.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Yeah, that way better receiver than I think people realize.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
Brice Hall definitely his seven game rookie season in twenty
twenty two, he showed flashes of brilliance before the knee injury.
He just turned twenty three years old, and he's got
Aaron Rodgers back behind center. So Charge, it doesn't sound
like you're gonna undo the opposite and pick Breese Hall
pick six. But how far would Breese Hall have to
fall for you to take him?
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Good player, really good player, But he's also relying on
Aaron Rodgers bouncing back at age forty. He'll turn forty
one in season. I still think I want some of
the sure thing wide receivers that are out there more
than I want I want to roll the dice on
any runner, even when I really I like as much
as Breese Hall, who is really good, But even his
own teammate Garrett Wilson's really really good, really good. Remember
(11:48):
he is ADP was what five last year, Yeah, because
we loved him and he was great, and he was
gonna have Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
And that's the season it looked like, oh my god,
this would be amazing.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
Yes, DeVante, Adam, Brandon, Ayuke, Nico Collins, Mike Evans. That's
the that's the tier. I've got to go drop down
before I'm considering Brice hall Is into that level, okay,
and that you know, really that's bringing us into the
end of the second round. So I'm I'm a full
round plus later on Breece hall because I you know,
(12:18):
I just I want I want those kinds of players.
And I still think there's enough question marks here that
I would go almost a full round later. You know,
give me, give me guys like Garrett Wilson ahead of
ahead of him for sure?
Speaker 3 (12:30):
Is Brice Hallier number two running back right now?
Speaker 1 (12:33):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (12:33):
Yes, okay, you mccaffreams, right now, Okay.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
I like I like him a lot.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
Well, I think we know what you're gonna say about
Bjon Robinson, who's going off the board at pick six
point seven. Let's just call it seven.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Let's do the rounding. Let's do the rounding.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Phillis okay, picked seven. Bijon finished as the number seven
ranked PPR back last year fourteen hundred total yards eight scores,
not bad for a rookie year with Desmond Ritter under center.
There's a new coaching staff, a new quarterback in Kurt
Cousins or Michael Pennix. Just kidding, just kidding, it's gonna
be Kirk Cousins. But Bijon only had four games last
(13:08):
season with sixteen or more carries and only scored four
rushing touchdowns last year. And for context, ye Tyler Algier
had four rushing touchdowns last year and had sixteen or
more carries in three games. It was more of a
split than people think. Now. Everybody's picking Bijon at pick
seven right now, so they think that he's gonna just
(13:30):
cannibalize all of Algier's carries. But is the upside of
Bijon enough for you to undo the opposite at any
point or is he long gone by the.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Time he's gonna be long gone? But yes, new coaches
Rahie Morrison and Zach Robinson, the offensive coordinator saying all
the right things about Jon Robinson, how they want to
really build an offense around him and utilize his special talents.
We'd love to hear that talk is cheap in June, right,
so you know we know talk is cheap in August.
Well it is. Who's ever had a bad OTAs you know,
(14:00):
other than Zach Wilson who apparently has been dreadful. But
you know it's they always say, guys look great. Now,
we want to utilize this guy's, you know, best shape of.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
His life, don't forget, best shape of his career.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
The one I even love more is we're we're taking
this insert insert position here. Let's just say running back,
We're lining them up in the slot. Yeah, that stuff
never pans out, never pans out in a meaningful way.
It's all lies, you know. I I we think Bejon
could be a special talent based what we saw in college.
(14:30):
We saw a few flashes of it last year, but
not consistently. Andy that was a very, very run heavy
offense that he was still playing. Now, granted we hated
the usage and the the way that Arthur Smith ran
that offense, but I still feel like there's I still
(14:51):
feel like there's just too many good wide receivers. Am
I going to pass by A J. Brown in the
Eagles offense? No, No, I'm not going to. You're not
for sure I'm not going to.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
No.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
In fact, there are the running backs I like more
than Bejon Robbinson. So there's you know, not only is
it to do the opposite thing, but also you know,
I'm I think Jonathan Taylor is sitting on a tremendous season.
We'll talk about him in a minute. So for me,
I'm still a whole I'm still a whole round lower
on Bjeon Robinson. I'm middle of the second round because
I want more of the sure thing, sure thing receivers
(15:20):
on my team.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
Middle of the second rounds where you're considering b Jeon Robinson.
All right, same rookie draft class. Jami Gibbs one of
two running backs going off the board right at the
first second round turn. He's going off right now at
about pick twelve. Gibbs finished as RB nine last year,
had twelve hundred total yards, scored eleven times. Dynamic and
impressive in just so many ways, but he scored fewer
(15:43):
touchdowns than his running mate David Montgomery and had about
forty fewer rushing attempts. He made up for it with
fifty two catches to Monty's sixteen. So his ADP seems
to dictate the fact that the fantasy community thinks he'll
take so much of the workload from Montgomery this year.
And I even hypot this, it's because Jamior Gibbs has
a cool name and David is a boring name to say.
(16:06):
So do you think do you think Gibbs gets more
of a workhorse role this year? No?
Speaker 1 (16:11):
I don't.
Speaker 3 (16:12):
Is he's not the one to turn for you? Then? No,
this is.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
This is the easiest guy I'm gonna let slide. And
I think you'll be stunned at how far I'm gonna
let Jamiir give you go. Oh really, And it's not
that he's he's great. Yeah, he's a great talent, But
Montgomery steals all the easy touchdowns up close. Monty had
nineteen carries just from inside the five yard line, and
he converted half of those into touchdowns. This sounds like
Fantasy Football weeklies training inside. It's gonna it's gonna be
(16:40):
coming your way, by the way, announcement coming on that
in the next week. Okay, the way to a fantasy
football training camp. Gibbs got half of the carries inside
the five, half of the touchdowns. Guys who have to
score from distance are a dangerous gamble. Oh yeah, and.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
That's what all this is.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
I mean Jamior Gibbs with an ADP of third, he's
going at the first.
Speaker 3 (17:01):
Pick of the second round. Yeah, and you're taking.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Somebody who has to score from distance. That's so dangerous.
No way am I.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Doing caught out, It's dumb.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
I'm I would take Gibbs at double his ADP. I'm
looking at roughly pick thirty. In fact, I would rather
have his teammates Sam Laporta before Jamiir Gibbs.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
You're taking two lions above Jamiir Gibbs. I'm saying the
third hour.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
That's right.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
The third lion Jonathan Taylor. You talked about him a
little bit before. He's going at right about the turn
as well, one two turn pick thirteen. Taylor missed a
bunch of times with injury, a bunch of time with
injuries in twenty twenty two and the first part of
twenty three, where he spent the first four weeks on
the pup list. He finished RB thirty three in total
PPR points, but RB eleven in points per game. Yeah,
(17:51):
he's two years removed from nearly twenty two hundred total
yards and twenty touchdowns. Wasn't that that was crazy? Through
his last six game of twenty twenty three, he did
score seven times. Yep, but that was two different runs
of three games as he missed weeks thirteen through fifteen
with injury. Anthony Richardson back from injury. That offense should improve,
but will it improve enough for you to undo the
(18:13):
opposite with Jonathan Taylor? And where?
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Now? Now, this is a guy I'm interested in much
closer to his ADP because there's nobody else take the
ball from him at any time. There's no Zach Moss. There,
there's no Zach Moss. Your back of his even hole.
That's it. I mean this is they are gonna work tailor,
and so I get the goal line back, I get
(18:35):
the players gonna get the ball really all one hundred
yards of the field. Indy had the sixth best run
blocking offensive line last year by Pro Football Focus, the
eleventh best run block win rate by ESPN. I just
I love I worry a little bit about the hell
because he does have these nagging injuries which is, by
the way, welcome to running backs, right, But I would
take him much closer to ADP I've got him going
(18:57):
out for me. I would take him at position twenty,
so he's would you say, thirteen or fourteen. He's the
second round, mid second round. So that's the point at
which I'm really I'm interested in Taylor because I just
I like him. I like his opportunities so much.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
And that'll probably vibe with some of how your do
the opposite builds would be if Taylor were to last
that long. Basically where you would pick in the fourth
or fifth position, take a wide receiver. There, Jonathan Taylor's
coming back to you in the second round.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
Possibly, that's maybe right where I would blink on Taylor.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Okay, well that's half of them. Should we take a
quick break.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Yeah, good call. Let's take a break and we come back.
Saquon Barkley just going two picks later than Jonathan Taylor. Yeah,
this one's not close. We'll talk about him when we
come back. Fantasy Football Weekly Paul Jargy and Matt Harrison
Shock Fantasy. You've got a promo code for people who
want to subscribe. It's just twenty five dollars for the
whole year.
Speaker 3 (19:49):
Yeah, FFW twenty twenty twenty four. I think it's in
the show notes.
Speaker 1 (19:55):
Tend the show notes in the show notes, go check
it out the show here in the show notes. Check
out our new discord a link to the discord channel.
Join our conversations there. We're just discording today about some
concerts that are starting to roll through town.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Yeah, there's a there's a couple of fun concerts this summer.
I'm thinking about. Actually, one of my favorite bands is
like from you know, the nineties, a SKO punk outfit
called Less than Jake.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Yeah, I remember you liked it Less than Jake. And
I think of one of the listeners, one of the
we have a listener from that band or something, right,
I don't know, maybe maybe, But they're doing a concert
in Jamaica, Oh Boy, in January where they're playing at
a resort four nights in a row.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
It's an all inclusive resort. They're playing with bowling for
soup as well. I don't you you'll you'd have heard
some of their songs. Okay, but but four nights in
a row, four concerts in a row.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
For bands I love.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
I would do that it's it's kind of I would
do that. And my my oldest son who's in college,
he's like, he's into this kind of music too, so
he's like, Dad.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Let's go. The closest thing like that that's ever happened
to me is a band that I A couple of
bands that I love. There was a I like a
genre called post rock, and there was a post rock
cruise and they had like three four bands that I
loved on the cruise and they're all performing constantly on
the cruise ship, and I'm like, this would be awesome,
but it was in football season. I couldn't go. That
(21:15):
was it? All right, Let's get back to get back
to our undoing. The opposite The next runner up is I.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
Think we know where this is gonna go. Saquon Barkley,
now a Philadelphia Eagle, is going off with the third
pick in the second round, pick fifteen. Barkley finished at
RB thirteen in a pretty horrible Giants offense last year,
but he had over just over twelve hundred yards and
he did it get ten scores. But he joins a
Philly offense that has huge upside, but also the tush
(21:46):
push is there. Eagles running backs only combined for eight
total touchdowns last year, the fifth fewest in the league. Well,
Jalen Hurts had fifteen rushing scores.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
Right, it's certainly gonna be one of my talking.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
There's no doubt he has talent. But does the talent
meet enough opportunity for you to undo the opposite for
Saquon Barkley anywhere in the first three rounds, you are
wrong about the talent. You don't think he has talent.
Speaker 1 (22:12):
Saquon Barkley is cooked. Oh, let's put some numbers against it.
He finished his Pro Football Focuses running back forty three. Overall,
he ranked fifty fourth in elusiveness. He ranked thirtieth in
rushing yards over expectation percentage according to Next Gen Stats.
His quarterback is going to eat all the short touchdowns,
(22:35):
and he doesn't catch like he used to, and Philadelphia
uses often a maddening time share. He had the advantage
of the Giants of being on the field constantly that
there's no such suggestion that's going to happen in Philadelphia.
He could be sitting on a five touchdown season. I
would much rather have the recently re upped Ramandre Stevenson.
(22:58):
I would rather have Jonathan Brook. I'd rather have Zamir White.
You know where those guys are.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
Going, like RB fifteen to twenty, pick ninety.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
Yeah, I am so far off Saquon Barkley. To me,
we have to get to round eight. He is an
adp of the middle of round two. I would take
Saquon Barkley in round eight.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
So if we're in a we're in a draft and
there's a bunch of cloned charges in this draft that
I'll carry your same draft strategy, and Saquon's there in
the sixth round, you're still not taking him.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
I would take the four running backs. They just meant
three running backs I just mentioned before. I would take him. So, no,
I'm so far off of Saquon.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
I love it. I love Do you see it differently? No,
I absolutely love the strong take. I look forward to
all these preseason shows where you're trashing Saquon and.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
We'll find out if I'm right or wrong about this.
But man, he to me, he looks he looks cooked.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
He might be all right.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Who's our next running Uh?
Speaker 3 (23:51):
You know a guy we talked about a little bit
in the preseason less year Brian Johnson special that was
Kyron Williams. He delivered in a major way. Right now,
he's going late second pick twenty two. Williams finished as
RB seven, had exactly thirteen fifty total yards and fifteen
scores in only twelve games.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
I was gonna say by Fantasy points per game, Kyroen might.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Have been RB two RB two in points per game.
Williams was absolutely money when he was on the field.
He only had two games all year where he finished
with fewer than fourteen PPR points. He missed five weeks
in the middle of your season, but if you survive that,
he probably won you a title with big games in
all of the Fantasy playoff weeks, including three scorers in
Week seventeen. Now, Kyrien was a bellcal last year out
(24:37):
of necessity. The Rams had no other halfway decent runners
on the roster, and he's not heavily involved in the
passing game. He had only thirty two receptions, which was
twenty eight The monkst running backs in the Rams. They
brought in Blake Korum in the drafts. His Korum and
the mid season injury enough to scare you off of
Kyron Williams in the first three rounds. Or was you
(24:57):
undo the opposite.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
This is the hardest one yet, this is brutal. So
it's the end of the second round. Here's Kyrien Williams.
I'm looking at a guy who was RB two in
point Fantasy points per game was last year just him
catching lightning in a bottle, aided by the fact they
had zero competition, nobody else with worth a damn in
that backfield. Then they go out and they put real
(25:20):
draft equity into Blake corm Since Todd Gurley, Sean McVay
has almost never used a workhorse back until last year
when he had to because there were no other good backs,
you know, between Gurley and Willian it did. It ended
Todd Gurley's career early. I think McVeigh knows that it's
always been a rotational backfield for Sean McVay between those,
(25:44):
you know, in the four seasons between those two events.
So I don't trust Kyrien Williams to get the big workhorse.
But the other part of it, that's that that that
makes this hard. William's pretty dark good. He finished sixth
in total rushing yards over expectation, seventh in rushing yards
over expectation per carry, tenth in rushing yards over expectation
(26:06):
percentage he finished. His pro football focuses AREB three ranked overall,
fifteenth and elusiveness. This is you know, this is where
this is about where Kyrien Williams belongs. I might go
a half round later so I can get some tight ends.
I loved Laporta, Kelsey McBride and get an a lead
(26:27):
tight end. I still want Jalen Hurts. I want all
those rushing, those free rushing touchdowns. I think those are
the group that I would take sooner. They're half round later.
So Kyron Williams is very close to I think going
correctly even in a due the opposite mindset. But I'd
still wait half.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
Around so because he's a late second round pick, and
at that turn there you'd be going, I have an
early third. Let's hope he gets back.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Let's hope he gets back to me.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
Okay, I want to see what you think about Devon
ah Chain here. He might be the most polarizing player
in the first two rounds. Currently going off with the
last pick in the second round, pick twenty four. Last year,
a Chane only played eleven games, finished RB twenty five,
but more importantly finished RB four In PPR points per game?
(27:11):
Do you know who was RB three in PPR points
per game? Moster Raheem moster Ah Chain had just under
a thousand total yards and scored eleven times. But when
you factor in that his first real action in week three,
he scored four times and had two hundred and thirty
three of those.
Speaker 1 (27:26):
Yards, by the way, which nobody started him for that gamer? Yeap,
so about a quarter of his production came in one
game when nobody had him and nobody.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
Had him in the lineups. Moster, by the way, led
the league in rushing scores last year with eighteen added
three more through the air, and he's going off at
pick ninety two RB thirty.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Hell so he's my do the opposite target. Yeah, that's
the that's the show we should follow up with. Yeah,
or who are the running backs you're taking in rounds five, six, seven, eight?
We can do that in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
Let's do that shit. The fantasy world seems to think
that a chan's taking most, if not all, of most production. Apparently, yes,
is the upside of a chane worthy of a late
second to early third or how late does he have
to fall for you to take him?
Speaker 1 (28:11):
And most of it is older. I think he's thirty. Yeah,
and so maybe not a lot of mileage, very low
mileage because he's been dinged up. He was under used
for a long time. So a Chan's an electric runner
for sure. He averaged almost eight yards per carry, which
is insane. He ranked number one in rushing yards over
expectation last year two point nine rushing yards per carry
(28:34):
over expectation. Wow, more than double the next closest player.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
Crazy.
Speaker 1 (28:39):
It is crazy. The next closest Christian McCaffrey, at one
point three yards over expectation. He posted two point nine.
He missed six games last year, after which, after he
missed that big block of games in the middle of
the season, Mike McDaniel seemed pretty gun shy about using
a Chan as much, giving him only ten carries per game. Okay,
and that's that where he me a little bit. Miami's
(29:01):
got the league's muddiest backfield. You mentioned moster, but let's
not forget thorn in your side. Guys like Jeff Wilson
and Salvon Ahmed and now fourth round rookie Jalen Wright
is in this mix too. I mean, that's real draft equity.
They have to get they need to get Jalen right
out of the field too, but that's the lead.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
Well, not only that, but their wide receivers have such
a low a dot on so many of these things
that they catch the ball a short distance from the line.
It's that PPR yardage for him.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
In best ball, you know, in best ball specifically, I
think you can justify this end of the second round
ADP for those blow up games. Yeah, I think in
any other format, end of the second round for a
chan is absurd. Isaiah Pacheco gets is exactly double eight
(29:49):
chans ADP at pick forty eight. I'd rather have Pacheco
for all the safety. I know he's going to get
the vast majority of the work on a very good offense.
Similarly good offense. So you're looking he's picked for eight,
that's double eight chance.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
So you're looking fifth round minimum.
Speaker 1 (30:04):
This is the last pick of fourth round. So I'd
rather have Pachecko. He's the last pick of the fourth round.
So I guess I'm saying fifth round on David Devon
a hand.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
All right, out of here, get out of here. Travis
Eten currently going off at pick twenty seven in the
third round in his rookie campaign, he averaged five point
one yards per carry. That number crash down to three
point eight last year, but he did have twelve total
scores in close to fifteen hundred total yards in just
a workhorse role. That was good enough to make him
(30:35):
RB three in total PPR points and was pretty consistent.
He has played all seventeen games in both seasons, after
missing the entirety of his twenty twenty one draft year
with an injury. Last year, he had double digit PPR
points in twelve games. He had three or more receptions
in all but three, and he scored in half the games.
You started him man with four multi score efforts. By
(30:58):
the way, Tank Bigsby, which was your guy last year. Yeah,
scored in the first two games. I know that never again.
I never saw the field again. Disappeared. Yeah, that was
that was bad think. I think he had like thirty
carries in the final fifteen games.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
I don't have my tanks for nothing.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
You have a sad trombone ski. I do sure.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
I feel like I had half of this right, I
had half of that equation right. I didn't trust Travis
Etn to be a workhorse runner, and he wasn't I
thought it would go right to Bigsby as the backup. Now,
in fairness, Etn started the season really well, but then
he faded pretty badly because he's just not built to
be a work horse. He finished the season averaging three
(31:43):
point eight yards per carry. That is dreadful. He finished
thirty sixth in rushing Over expectation, he topped fifty seven
rushing yards. Fifty seven rushing yards is not a lot.
He topped fifty seven rushing yards in five of his
seventeen games. That's all. Doug Peterson says he wants to
rely less on Etn, and he's talking up Tank Bigsby.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
I'm not gonna time.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
I mean, there's nothing I'm gonna say that's gonna make
anybody believe in Tank Bigsby. So not gonna try in
round three, which is where Travis Etn is going, I
can get a sure thing wide receiver, and get a
shirt thing quarterback, and get a sure thing tight end.
I would take Etn round five roughly double his ADP.
(32:28):
I'm not a I wasn't a believer last year. I
think he his productivity was just him being a functional
running back who got almost all the work in his offense.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
That really was it. It was just opportunity, that's.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
All it was. I don't think he's a special back.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
All right. Uh you know one of the more special
backs in in maybe the last decade, Derrick Henry. He's
an old face in a new place. He joins the
Baltimore Ravens through free agency. In those all purple uniforms,
he might look a little bit like Grimace. Yeah, he's
currently going off the board in the middle of the
third round.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
McDonald's phased Grimace out.
Speaker 3 (33:04):
Oh have you heard about the Mets and Grimace? The
New York Mets. No, Like they had Grimace throughout the
first pitch at a game like like two weeks ago,
and the Mets have like lost one game since then.
He's in good luck so that like all the Mets
fans are converting to the Church of Grimace. That's awesome.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
I love it. I love it.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
So with Derek Henry, you pretty much know what this
state in his career that he offers nothing in the
passing game. So it's much more impressive that he finished
as RB twelve and PPR points. He posted just under
fourteen hundred total yards and twelve scores all of his
touchdowns were on the ground. Henry has posted double digit
rushing touchdowns in six straight seasons. What makes that more
(33:44):
impressive is he only played eight games in twenty twenty one. Wow,
he joins a Baltimore team and you know, might bring
just a completely different dimension to Lamar Jackson in that offense.
He's six y three, two hundred and forty seven pounds,
but he's thirty years old and he's average twenty carries
per game for the last six years Straight's.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
A lot of mileage. And remember he didn't early in
his career. He was lightly used for those first couples. Yeah,
and been then since then, it's just pounding him in.
Speaker 3 (34:14):
It was it DeMarco Murray.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
This done.
Speaker 3 (34:19):
He only had really one injury in all of those years.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
All the eight are so amazing.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Yeah, but Kenn's body hold up to the punishment after
age thirty touchdown upside absolutely tremendous. I think when we
talked about the AFC UH North in our in our
preview podcast, you were like, would it surprise you of
Derrick Henry was the highest rushing touchdown getter of this season.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
No, not at all, not at all.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
But in the third round middle third. Are you taking
Derrick Henry in a DTO draft strategy?
Speaker 1 (34:49):
This one is also a little bit tricky unless Keaton
Mitchell recovers quickly and gets back to being as elusive
as he was, which is hard to do off the
ACL That was what made Keaton Mitchell explosive SIV was
how hard it was to get a clean hit on him.
Probably isn't gonna have there and.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
They're talking about him midseason. Yeah, like toplist almost for sure.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
Right, So Keith Mitchell doesn't look like a factor, just
as Hill's just a guy.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
So the opportunity in Baltimore's high over the past three seasons,
Baltimore's top top six and rushes from inside the five
and running play percentage from inside the five, there's gonna
be a lot of goal line opportunities. And of course,
over the past three years, as you would guess, Derrick
Henry leads all rushers in goal line touchdowns. You know
who leads all players in goal line touchdowns the last
three years?
Speaker 3 (35:37):
This is Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1 (35:40):
He actually doesn't get many carries at all.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
I suppose he doesn't.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Yeah, the right idea?
Speaker 3 (35:44):
Is it hurts? Right?
Speaker 1 (35:45):
It is? Yes, Jalen Hurts sixty one.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
Yeah, sixty one.
Speaker 1 (35:49):
By the way, Jalen Hurts starts, we're talking ADP a
little bit. Jalen Hurts right now is going off the
board at pick du picked twenty six.
Speaker 3 (36:01):
I think it's because I believe he only had fifteen
pass touchdowns last year.
Speaker 1 (36:06):
I just I think the Eagles are gonna bounce back
in a big way.
Speaker 3 (36:08):
Probably.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
I think I think they're bad coaching, some bad injuries,
some bad luck, and I think they're a bounce back anyway.
I'm not I'm intrigued by Henry, but he hurts you.
He hurts you obviously in a PPR league where he
doesn't give you any of that, He's gonna give you
some dud games when he doesn't score. Yeah, that's coming,
you know. So if he doesn't score, he's gonna get
some games where he has sixteen carries for thirty eight yards,
(36:31):
chips in nothing through the air. He's gonna give you
some He's gonna give you some bummer games, unfortunately, but
the touchdown upside is very real. It wouldn't surprise me
if he scored in two thirds of his games this year, right,
and a couple of those will be multiple.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Touchdown you look, you're looking at a projected twelve to
fifteen touchdowns maybe yep, on the high end.
Speaker 1 (36:52):
So currently going middle of round three, I think the
place where I would I would bend my do the
opposite tendencies for Derrick Henry would be roughly after my
shirting quarterbacks. To me, that's Alan and Hurts are gone.
My top three tight ends who we love, right, you
got Laporta, you got Kelsey and McBride. Okay, although it's
deeper in tight ends this year than it has been forever.
(37:14):
All Right, that's a stop topic for a future show.
By the way, it sure is. Oh, you don't have
to panic on tight ends for for a long time.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
I actually think there's five tight ends, and I don't
want anything to do with anybody after that.
Speaker 1 (37:24):
Okay, all right, so right, we'll talk about that. I
think there's gonna be guys like Jake Ferguson. They're gonna
work out. That's just me. The area where I'm interested
in taking Derrick Henry is in this part of my draft,
DK Metcalf, DeVante Smith, Ken Walker, Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews.
(37:45):
This is the area that feels about.
Speaker 3 (37:46):
Right, that's about where Derrick Henry's going.
Speaker 1 (37:49):
That's round four. So that's that's where I like him,
and that's about where I would take him, I think.
So just a couple picks, Ye, I'm about I'm about
a half round or around half lower than Henry. Now
in a guillotine league, beware because he's gonna those dud
games from Henry. Those are gonna get you cut.
Speaker 3 (38:07):
Yeah, I mean, and and you don't have the PPR
aspect to booye you there, so he's got to get
you the touchdowns, got to get you the touch So
do do you think Derek Henry in a guillotine league
drops to like fourth or fifth round or are people
nuts enough to go I'm gonna take him in the
second round.
Speaker 1 (38:21):
I think there's still enough newbies out there that don't
understand the nuances of the format well enough that he's
gonna he's gonna go earlier than he should.
Speaker 3 (38:28):
Especially with eighteen team leagues.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
Eighteen team leagues, and that's when the running back panic
is so real in an eighteen team league, when people
are looking at if I don't take a running back
in the first two rounds and you know by the
time now it's back to me, right, it's you know,
now what am I gonna do? Meanwhile, I'll be like
Zamir White, bring it on charge when to undo the Opposite?
(38:53):
Did you have any real problems with any of my
takes on this? No, this is pretty out of the
odd way, out of lockstep with the norm.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
You know, I thought it would be good for the
listeners to hear you mister do the opposite himself, go hey,
where would I take these guys? So I think it's
an interesting exercise for us, and I do like the
idea of doing my do the Opposite running back targets
in a future show where we can go, you know
guys in rounds four through seven?
Speaker 1 (39:19):
Yeah, yeah, who hound on the table for That's the
whole premise of do the Opposite is go hit those
running backs in the middle rounds. That's that's where last
year's top ten came out of. Yeah, you know it's
Christian McCaffrey and then most of the US are running
backs that ended up his top ten running backs for
round four, round six, round eight. So yeah, we'll go
mind those rounds? Is uh? I want to mention this.
(39:41):
We alluded to this just briefly, Ramondre Stevenson got a hefty,
pretty solid good new deal yeah Thursday with the Patriots.
I'm team Ramandre. I think he's a really good running
back who got used weirdly and poorly last year on
a totally dysfunctional offense. Yeah, I'm optimistic that Remandre is
going to come back. He's perfect do the opposite candidate.
(40:02):
Let me let me see if I can find where
he's going off the board right now, he is currently
going off the board Pick sixty three, running back twenty.
This is perfect for do the Opposite. I get a
workhorse back on an offense that almost has to get better,
right it kick it worse? Not that it was last year.
That was mac Jones.
Speaker 3 (40:20):
It can't get Bailey. No, no, it could be the same.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
No, it can't be the same.
Speaker 3 (40:26):
It could be the same. It can't be.
Speaker 1 (40:29):
Kobet and Drake May. If Drake May is good enough
to be better than Jacoby Brissett.
Speaker 3 (40:33):
Yeah, those guys they probably do it just enough.
Speaker 1 (40:36):
They I think, you know, their abilities alone will raise
the bar for Ramandri Stevenson. I think I love him
as a value pick at selection sixty three running back
twenty exactly.
Speaker 3 (40:47):
All right, you're talking fish Bowl with mister Scott fish next.
Speaker 1 (40:51):
Next week, Scott fish Ball. I want to talk about
the nuances of this year's scoring system. Every year I
saw it gets more complicated. I got to try to
keep up with all the all the very and changes.
We got a bunch of first down scoring yep, built
in this year. And yeah, we'll talk through what to
do with your Scott fish Bowl team.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
I'd like to mention one thing too on that Scott
fish Bowl and Fantasy Cares aspect League Safe, something near
and dear to your heart.
Speaker 1 (41:16):
I'm familiar.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
You can now make donations straight from League Safe too,
Fantasy Cares. You can round up your bill to get in,
your leak fee to get in, or choose to do
a dollar or five dollars or ten dollars, the cool
one hundred dollars if you want. But all the donations
go straight to Fantasy Cares. And we at Leak Safe
we got a goal of ten thousand dollars and we're
(41:37):
already I mean we're in June right now, and I
think we're already we're already at like almost two thousand bucks.
So wow, we're feeling pretty good. We might have to
up our goal a little bit.
Speaker 1 (41:46):
You might wind up your goal, yeah, but ten thousand's great.
I need you to stay under like seven two hundred
because that's what our super chop Scott fish bols super chop.
So I need you to stand her there.
Speaker 3 (42:00):
For totally reason's right. We reject your donation.
Speaker 1 (42:06):
All right, thanks for listening, everybody. We'll talk to you
next week. Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production
of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,
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