Duncan Duo 1-05-25

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Happy Sunday, Tampa Bay. We're with you for another week
here on the Duncan Duo Real Estate Show to talk
about the Tampa Bay real estate market, like we are
every Sunday at ten am here on WFLA News. My
first show back in case you couldn't tell. Last week,
we ran kind of a best of rerun show because
I was out with some health stuff. Had surgery a

(00:22):
few weeks ago, and I'm just now finally getting back
to the point of feeling remotely normal. Had some complications
with the surgery, and then unfortunately got the flu, and
then obviously the holidays and New Year kind of had
an impact as well. So I'm happy to be back
in the studio talking to you about what is going
on with real estate, to keep you updated and prepare

(00:42):
you for the year ahead, a year that I expect
to be a much better year than we had in
twenty twenty four. A lot of my reasoning for that,
you know, First and foremost, I believe that the presidential
administration change is gonna it's gonna give us a bump.
I also think our real estate market is going to

(01:03):
do better this year, assuming no major impacts from storms.
Simply because the longer the further we get away from
the storm damage that we had, the better our market's
going to get. The more those homes are gonna get
cleaned out, cleared out, repaired, put back on the market.
And I think that's going to contribute to positives. And

(01:26):
I think we're gonna see some drops and interest rates,
some overall improvements in buying power for consumers, and just
overall a better economy. So do I think it's gonna
be some stellar record bullet breaking, you know, crazy year. No?
But do I believe that we will have a better
twenty twenty five than twenty twenty four in real estate?

(01:47):
The answer is yes. Now, let me define what I
mean by that, because a lot of people will hear
that and think, oh, the market's going to go crazy.
You know. Andrew Duncan said on the radio that it's
gonna be so much better. I'm not saying drastic. I'm
talking like percentage points about it, or I'm not talking like,
you know, fifty percent. I'm talking like ten percent or
less better than last year in terms of number of transactions.

(02:08):
I do think we're gonna see prices rise a little bit,
but again, nominal compared to inflation. I think it's really
more of a stabilization here on prices. We had so
many years where the prices ran up, and then of
course we had the storm and the damage and some
of the distress properties that come along with that. That
will put downward pressure on prices to where I think
we'll end up seeing, you know, some of that offset

(02:31):
by you know, non damage to homes doing better. But
ultimately I believe we'll see our average cell price creep
up a little bit in twenty five. But more than anything,
I think we're going to see an increase in transactions.
I think that one, these storms created extra transactions from
people that have their storms damaged and then decided, while

(02:53):
they're waiting on their home to be repaired, they're gonna
go out and buy. And then second, the consumers to say,
oh wow, let me and investors, let me go look
at these good deals. I can buy these homes that
were flooded or damage and I can go. Those are
created transactions that wouldn't have happened without the storms. And then, last,
but not least, people the migration around Tampa that's gonna happen.

(03:14):
People are gonna maybe some people afraid of living on
the water or in those flood areas moving up, you know,
in inland and out into the country. And of course,
if we do have another year without storms, I think
we'll see some of our population growth back. So again
I do think twenty twenty five will be better. I
also think we're gonna see, like I mentioned, a drop
in interest rates. How much of a drop in interest

(03:36):
rates remains to be seen. There's a lot that needs
to happen in the economy, you know. And and with
the administration change for for massive rate drops, I don't
think we'll see those. But I do think we're going
to see a few rate drops this year, which again
will impact affordability. And every time they drop rates, you
know the you know the and here's the reality. When

(04:00):
the FED cuts rates, mortgage rates have already dropped by then, Okay,
so I don't as soon as the mortgage banks start
predicting and determining and making guestimates and research about what
they think the Fed's gonna do, mortgage rates kind of move.
Then they don't move when the FED decides. They move

(04:20):
to predict and ahead of time what they believe the
Fed's gonna do, and they're usually right. So when you
hear all the Feds dropping rates, the mortgage rates are
probably already dropped in response to the FED cutting rates.
The banks already predicted that and expected that to happen.
So when when you see the FED cutting rates, the
mortgage rates already dropped. So it's you don't need to

(04:42):
like wait to make your choices about what the Fed's
gonna do, and you just need to pay attention. And here,
what is it forecast to do the next FED meeting?
Are they forecast to drop rates? Okay, the mortgage rates
are probably dropping around that time. And when I say dropping,
I don't mean massive drops. We're talking like maybe tenth
of a point, quarter of a point best is what
we're likely going to see impact on mortgage rates each

(05:04):
time the FED predictions come out. So expect you expect
rates to drop in you know, twenty twenty five, but
not massively simply because again, inflation is not quite under
wraps like people want it to be. It's not heading
in the most perfect direction to get rates to drop.

(05:24):
But thirty year mortgages, they're down in the mid six
is now the average rate. Of course, you can get
into the fives. Of course, you can buy a new
construction home and in some instances get much lower by
doing a two to one rate buydown. Two one rate
buydown allows you to have higher closing costs, sometimes paid

(05:45):
for by seller or builder, to where your rate is
two points lower in year one and one point lower
in year two, and then the normal rate by year three.
A lot of people are looking at the two to
one buydown right now with the expectation that by the
third year will you back to seeing you know, record
low mortgage rates. Now. I don't know if I predict

(06:05):
the same, but there are people betting on that. And certainly,
do I think interestrates will be lower in a year two?
Of course I do. Do I think they'll be back?
Do I think there'll be two points down? Hard to
say that. So, nonetheless, there are solutions out there for
you to get your payments lower and your mortgage rates lower.
It just requires the right mortgage lender, the right seller,

(06:27):
and a creative approach to financing your property. I saw
an article this week, and this is something we deal
with a lot in real estate when family gets involved
with the real estate purchase. And you know, it's funny
because you know, you always want help from your family

(06:48):
when it's valid help. But unfortunately, in the real estate industry,
far too often we see situations where you know, parents
are helping their kids buy, maybe parents are kind of
controlling the purse strings and truly the real decision makers.
And unfortunately, when you get too many hands in the
cookie jar, it can cause a lot of problems. We
had a transaction not long ago where the daughter was

(07:13):
selling the property. The daughter was on title, and the
father the daughter was in her thirties. I mean, it's like,
come on, it's time to grow up. It's time to
grow up, time to let your kid go. But the
daughter in the thirties was calling us, and then the
father would call us and they'd be contradicting what they
would tell us to say. We had to tell the father, hey, look,
she's the one that's on title I paid for. It

(07:35):
does not matter. What matters in the real estate world
in terms of who we are authorized to act on
behalf of is whose name is on the contract, and
whose name is on the contracts our client. If your
name isn't on the contract, we have to have some
something in writing authorizing you to direct us. So when
you're a parent and you're helping your kid, you got

(07:56):
to be really clear if who is the decision maker
and who is authorized, because when you call a real
estate agent and you tell them to do something, or
you call a seller, or you call a builder and
you're telling them something and you're not the person on
the contract and you're not the real estate agent, it
causes so much confusion and so many problems. And I
got to tell you, if you're a real estate agent,
listen to this. You know what I'm talking about, because

(08:18):
you have dealt with those situations where the dad is
contractor and going to do the inspection, or the dad
or the moms providing the financing and they're going to
helicopter parents their way through the real estate transact and
try and tell the kid what to do and sometimes
giving them bad advice. Or the one that I think
is the funniest is when family members get involved have

(08:41):
never bought a home before and they're trying to guide
the process. So just be really cautious if you're a
family member and you're helping your kid buy or sell
their home, that you understand, you know kind of the
pecking order, who's authorized to make a call who's authorized
to make a decision, who's authorized to tell someone something
to do, because it does happen to where those two
parties conflict, and then the real estate agent or the

(09:02):
title agent or the builder is stuck in the middle
of that. And it's probably one of the worst transactions
to deal with is when somebody's buying and their family
member is intricately involved in it. It just it can
be really problematic with the process of moving towards closing
because who the decision maker is and who whose directives

(09:26):
you have to follow can get really confusing. But by law,
it's whose names on the contract or who's been authorized
in writing to all parties to be able to act
on behalf of the you know, the transaction or the
buyer seller. So saw an article this week buyers with
kids get more family help, which I thought was interesting.
So one in four buyers that have children received family

(09:51):
cash for down payments, compared to twelve percent of those without. So,
in other words, if you're someone that has kids and
you're buy home, you're two times more likely to get
money from your family to help you buy a home,
which I thought was kind of interesting. I mean, I
guess I get it because maybe grandparents or they want
their grandkids to have a safe environment, and you know,

(10:15):
the fact that someone's having a family maybe makes the
maybe makes the parent or grandparent feel more comfortable giving
money to the family for housing because they know it's
going to house more people versus you know, maybe a
single person. Not getting that, but I just thought that
was interesting that, you know, buyers with kids get more
financial help, they get more funding for down payment. Homeowners

(10:38):
with kids living under the roof were more likely to
receive hamidly help for mortgage payments. One in six homeowners
with kids receive financial support from family to help pay
their mortgage, compared to eight percent of those without kids.
So again same kind of number. So families, parents, grandparents
feel much more likely or not feel much more likely,
are much more likely to help out the kids when

(11:01):
their kids have kids, and if they don't, then they're
less likely to help them, maybe because they think they
don't need as big of a home unless they can
afford it, and they don't need the housing as much
unless they can afford it if they don't have kids,
and the economy has been rough, so obviously tiging out
the heartstrings here, but the parents and grandparents supporting the

(11:23):
families of their kids or grandkids is more common again
when they know that their children at home and maybe
a true, more important need for more space than just
somebody wanting extra room or extra bedrooms or extra garage space,
but truly extra rooms for people to live in. So
hopefully that makes sense as you go down the path

(11:44):
of buying or selling, and if you're a real estate agent,
man enjoy those transactions when the family, when multiple people
in the family are involved, those are some of the
best transactions out there. Anyway, when we back, we're gonna
talk about the Tampa real estate stats, what we saw
for November, the talking about market act on Twitter and Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Facebook,

(12:09):
All socials at the Duncan Duo can follow me personally
on my Instagram, the Andrew Duncan, and we're always putting
out relevant real estate content for Tampa Bay to keep
you updated on what's going on. And we're always buying houses.
If you've got a house that you just want to
get rid of, that needs a lot of work, that's damaged,
that you're just ready to move, you're ready to leave.

(12:31):
Maybe last storm season was too much for you, and
you're ready to get out before there's another one. Just
hit us up at Duncan Duo dot com again, that
is Duncan Duo dot com for uh A an instant
cash offer, a guaranteed home sale. We can do a
variety of different services or options depending on your unique

(12:51):
need to help you get to your next step UH
and again, get your instant cash offer at dunkin doo
it dot com. You can also get your your home
value estimate on that same website. Again that's Duncan Duo
dot com. So the real estate stats came out for November,
and I was really kind of looking forward to seeing

(13:13):
how we finished the year out in November, because you know,
if you look at the trajectory of real estate, typically
January and February or typically slower months. We ramp up
in the spring and the summer, and then it kind
of holds the line pretty consistently, and then you have

(13:34):
a few months between September and November they are usually
are slower months, and then you have December that's usually
pretty strong. Well, December stats aren't out yet, so we
can't talk about it, but what we can talk about
is that we did see a little bit of a
bump up in November. And to give you an understanding
of what usually happens in November, November is usually it's

(13:58):
it's probably the worst real estate month of the year historically,
you know, September, in October, usually you see a fall
off in November. Well, this year we had kind of
an anomaly in that we had, you know, a pretty
decent summer. You know, if we look at it compared
to you know, the past few years, it was it
was in line, maybe slightly worse than, but in line

(14:22):
with the last few summers. And then we got hit
with storm number one, and then we got hit with
storm number two. And not only do those storms disrupt
the market, but they they disrupt buying interest. So the
leading up to the storm is everyone standing on the
fence and saying, oh, I don't want to touch the

(14:43):
market because I'm spooked, right, I'm afraid what's going on.
I'm scared. I don't want to buy. And then of
course the ramifications of both these storms, because they actually
did have substantial impact. In years past, we would have
like the you know, we hadn't had the substantial impact storms.
So you'd have like the couple week period before the

(15:04):
week period probably before the storm, of everyone's freaking out,
no one's buying, and then the storm goes and misses
us and everyone jumps right back in. Well, this year
we didn't have that, so we had these two really
bad storms that hit us. So we went from almost
five thousand sales in June, July, and August to fifty
eight hundred and May okay, then we're hitting the five

(15:25):
thousand number. Then we dropped down to thirty five hundred
for September. Okay, So that to give you an idea,
that's a thirty percent drop month over month in the
number of home sales. We held the line with the
same number in October thirty five hundred and eighty nine,
so we were around the same and a lot of
people are hoping and expecting that November would bounce back

(15:46):
some and it did. Now did it bounce back massively, No,
but we did see an increase in sales. And historically
November is worse than September and October. This year, however,
September and October had those storms, so some of our
rebound post storm and some of that pent up demand
of people deciding to buy after the storms and after
everything's cleared out, started to show up in November. I

(16:08):
think it's going to continue in December. I think our
January and February this year are going to be stronger
than January and February last year. January and February last
year we had thirty two hundred sales in January, forty
three hundred in February. The year before that we had
forty five hundred and forty nine hundred. Okay, So I
think we're going to see a better January and February

(16:30):
this year because again, those those damaged homes are getting
sold and rebuilt, the some of the buyers are coming back,
some of those palms have been remodeled now and are
getting put back on the market. And then of course
we've got a couple more months of cleanup, areas starting
to look normal again, some people starting to come back
to communities. All those things will be a positive increase,

(16:52):
and I think, you know, December will be better. So
to recap, November saw thirty seven hundred and sixty one
home sales, about a couple hundred, you know, five or
six percent point increase over last month average sale price
of four hundred and seventy thoy three fourteen. Now, that
is the lowest number that we've seen this year, and

(17:16):
that's expected. We were at five oh seven in June,
down the four to seventy in November. A lot of that,
again is some of those damaged homes pulling prices down,
Buyers being more aggressive in their negotiations because of the storms,
sellers maybe accepting a little bit less to move on.
All those things contribute. But one another positive thing we

(17:36):
were seeing inventory rising. We saw around three months for
most of the year, went up to four August five
in September and October dropped back down to four point seven.
So to put that into perspective, that's a pretty balanced
real estate market, still very healthy overall, and we're in
a pretty good place going into twenty twenty five based

(17:56):
on the November stats, to do better, assuming again no
major storm impacts then we did in twenty twenty four.
Fingers crossed obviously for a hurricane free season in the
second half of the year, but so far things look
like they're back trending in a more positive direction. We've
taken the hit of the storms and now things are
starting to slowly but surely normalize. And that isn't gonna

(18:20):
happen overnight. That'll take some time, but hopefully these stats
have been helpful. And I'll ringing back after a quick break,
continuing our conversation here on the Duncan Duo Real Estate Show.
So back here talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market.
Andrew Duncan to the Duncan Duo team. Happened to be
back in the studio my first time in a few weeks,
had some surgery, had some health obstacles, got the flu,

(18:43):
and been doing a couple of reruns the last little
bit to try and get back to normal. And I'm
happy to be here and kind of keeping you guys
updated on what is going on in the Tampa Bay
real estate market. I talked about the stats during the
last segment, and I want to go back to them.
Before I do that, I want to make sure you
know that if you want to know the stats for
your house, just go to Dunkin Duo dot com. It's

(19:06):
going to show you average sell prices in your neighborhood,
what's sold, what's on the market, what's under contract, what
the trends are are. There foreclosures in your neighborhood. They're
starting to show up in some communities. Are there short sales?
You know, all of those things you can see, you
can get an understanding of the sale price in your neighborhood,
the average sale price in your neighborhood. But the thing

(19:26):
that the stat that I didn't get to that I
want to talk about a little bit more. I talked
about inventory four point seven months. I talked about, you know,
the average cell price, the number of sales upticking from
September and October, which is seasonably abnormal, but expected this
year because we lost so many transactions in September October

(19:48):
from the storms, that some of those are starting to
get replaced. And I think we'll see even more of
that in December, and hopefully more in January and February
to get us off to a good start. But the
average cell price, I mentioned that it's four hundred and
seventy thousand, Well, in October it was four seventy three.
September is four to seventy five. August it was for
eighty five. So that gives you an understanding from prior

(20:08):
to the storm. It's been a downward trend on price
since then. We've lost fifteen thousand dollars in our average
sale price, a little over three percentage points or a
little less than three percentage points in our average sale price,
you know, from August year over a year, though it's
a it's a bigger story. So our average cell price

(20:30):
in September of this year four to seventy five. It
was for eighty nine last year October four seventy nine
last year, for seventy three this year, So some depreciation.
But last November we saw our average cell price at
four hundred and eighty nine thousand. This year we see
it at four to seventy. So now we're now looking

(20:52):
at the fourth consecutive month with a year over year,
pretty significant drop in our average cell price. So we
are seeing depreciation in Tampa. Prices are going down. Okay, Now,
does that mean prices are going down in every product,
every neighborhood, in every house. No. There are some neighborhoods

(21:13):
doing better than others. There are some communities doing better
than others. But the average overall for Tampa home values
is on the decline. It's on the decline because affordability.
But the biggest, most substantial reason that's on the decline
was because of the storms. If we hadn't had the storms,
I suspect we'd probably see home values more in line

(21:35):
with last year's home values, and probably we'd be saying, oh,
we had a year of stabilization and a year where
values it just kind of flat lined. But the storms
have a negative impact. And you might think to yourself, well, hey,
I live in a neighborhood that didn't get impacted, So
why are my home values dropping? Okay? And here's why.

(21:57):
First off, you don't live in a vacuum. We are
a big market with a lot of things going on,
a lot of domino effect, a lot of you know,
kind of snowball effect. One thing happens that leads to others.
So let me explain why, even if your neighborhood didn't
get hit, why value may be dropping. And so again,

(22:18):
average cell price from four eighty nine to four seventy Okay,
for year over year, that's a nineteen thousand dollars drop.
That's a four percent decrease in average home value in
Tampa Bay. So the average homeowner in Tampa Bay has
lost four percent of their equity in the last year. Now, again,

(22:38):
is that worse in some areas, Yes, areas that were
hit harder by the storms. It could potentially be worse,
it could also potentially be better. There are some homes
in those areas where there's really high demand, where a
lot of the homes got wiped out, and maybe a
home didn't. Is that home in more demand now, Yeah,
it might sell a to premium. So it's caused this

(22:59):
really weird statistical thing to happen where you can't really
apply any kind of straight line principle to anything. What
I can tell you is that prices are dropping. They're
not necessarily dropping everywhere, but mostly, and there are rare
anomalies where a home value isn't dropping, or maybe it's
doing a little bit better, or a neighborhood's doing a

(23:20):
little bit better. But if you're out there in a
community and you think, you know what, prices aren't dropping
in my neighborhood and they're not going to because we
didn't get hit, let me explain why you're wrong. You're
wrong because a lot of our demand that's driving our
values is from all over the country. When you have
two months of back to back catastrophic storms like we had,

(23:41):
that shock's movement to our community. That puts people in there,
That stops people in their tracks. They start thinking about
moving somewhere else. They don't want to move to a
a disaster zone. They don't want to repeat what happened
to our area. They don't want to deal with a
year or two down the line in massive increase in insurance.
So it stops demand. Well, when you stop demand and

(24:03):
supply increases. And guess what we obviously know supply is
increased because the number of people whose homes were flooded
now a lot of them are selling them and a
lot of people are saying, you know, look, a storm
moves people. There are people that lived here or that
just moved here. Let's face it, from twenty twenty to today,
we've had so much population turnover. We have so many

(24:24):
people from out of our area that moved here that
never had experienced a storm, that haven't gone through ten
or twenty Like me, I've been here twenty years. I've
gone through nineteen years of a bunch of close calls,
never really any major hits. Well, then we got two
of them back to back. Can I can do the
math on that and say it'll probably be a while
before we get another one. So I'm okay. Somebody just
moved here a year or two, three, four years ago

(24:46):
and they get hit with two back to back storms.
A lot of them are saying, peace out, I'm moving back,
I'm gone. So what you have is an increase in supply, okay,
because now you have people that are selling their homes
even if they didn't get flooded, and you're having people
sell their flooded damage tomes that created inventory. At the
same time, you're having people say, WHOA, I don't want
to move there now because all this catastrophe. Let's face it,

(25:09):
on CNN and Fox every night, they don't put sunshine
and rainbows in Florida every day they put it the
mass media showcases our area. It's when it's something crazy,
you know. They don't showcase it when it's normal and
nice every day. They showcase it when there's a catastrophic storm.
So that's the narrative that's throughout the country right now
about Tampa. People are freaked out about moving here. We're

(25:32):
gonna see a population slow down, a population growth slow
down in Tampa, and we're going to see an increase
in inventory in the short term for sure. So both
of those things lead to prices dropping and buyers buyers
having more leverage to negotiate a better deal. I think
that trend continues. I think it continues for a few months,

(25:52):
and my hope is with some drops and interest rates
and the administration change that we start to see appreciation again,
maybe the third or fourth quarter next year. But prices
are dropping and you just have to come to the
realization of looking at the math on that to understand
the why behind it. And so your area didn't get hit,

(26:14):
Why do you think your price shouldn't drop? Well, first off,
if your comps are from a few months ago, prior
to the storms, they're not relevant anymore. The whole world
changed for Tampa Bay. Then number two, you've lost buyers. Okay,
your home doesn't sell without buyers, you know it isn't
You can't go online and you know it's not a
stock investment. You know, it's not like you can track

(26:35):
it online and look at a number and say, oh,
that's what I can cash out for. That number doesn't
exist if there's not a buyer willing to pay it
in the market. It's not like a mayror trade where
you can just click sell and somebody pays it, right,
it just doesn't work that way. You've got to find
an actual buyer to pay your price. And of course
there's investors and hedge funds and cash buyers like myself
that are out there looking for opportunities to say, hey, look,

(26:56):
I'll buy that for the right price. So there's always buyers,
just what price. So if your neighborhood didn't get hit,
you're still gonna see value drops. And here's the other reason.
Your neighborhood might not have gotten hit. Okay, But here's
what happens. Okay. The likelihood is that the neighborhood next
year is maybe something there got hit, or maybe the

(27:17):
neighborhood next to that one. You may not have enough
comps for an appraisal in your neighborhood. An appraiser likes
to use a handful of comps. You might only have
one or two sales. Then they got to go to
this neighboring subdivision to find a couple. Maybe a couple
in there got hit. Maybe there's a short sale in
there because somebody's now distressed and doesn't have enough money
or didn't have flood insurance. So all of these things

(27:38):
are contributing, and you're gonna continue to see prices soften
a little bit. Now, are we going to see our
prices go from four seventy to two fifty? Now? You know,
we're gonna see four seventy to four sixty to four fifty,
you know, and then hopefully maybe back up again. But
we are seeing some softening of price that is going
to continue. That isn't changing of night. And it's a

(28:01):
trickle effect because these storms created some distress sales. Distress
sales that turn into short sales or foreclosures end up
being new comps. And even if you don't have any
in your neighborhood, if the neighborhood next to you, or
the neighborhood next to that, or the neighborhood next to
that has one, then it'll pull down that neighborhood, and
then that neighborhood's values drop and they've got to use
one of those homes for your comp Guess what it

(28:23):
does to your neighborhood. So you can be in a
perfectly fine neighborhood and have nothing happened in your neighborhood
and think that you're insulated, and you one hundred percent
are absolutely not insulated. Okay, So hopefully that makes sense
and gives you an understanding of why some homes might
go up in value if they're super super rare in

(28:43):
an area that's in super high demand. Like I'll give
you an example, waterfront in South Tampa. Okay, waterfront in
South Tampa got decimated. Okay, I suspect that there will
be some South Tampa waterfront homes that didn't get hit.
We're just being completed, did not quite complete, whatever it
is that get completed and sold, that will sell at

(29:05):
a premium because there's so few of them available that
didn't have damage, okay, or that weren't impacted, you know,
very negatively, so because of a rarity. Okay, if you
have the only home in the neighborhood that didn't get
hit or didn't get flooded, maybe then you a premium.
But if you're in an entire neighborhood and your entire

(29:27):
neighborhood didn't get hit and you think that you're safe,
your values are't gonna drop. Sorry, it's just probably not accurate. Okay,
So again rare circumstances. Every market's different, every city and
community is a little different. But the reality is that
the storm caused a lot of damage. It is zapped.
Buyer demanded increased supply. And here's what happens. Real estate

(29:49):
values go up with the supply and demand curve. A
drop in supply, an increase in demand. What happens the
price it goes up. Well, we're in the opposite of that.
We have an increase in supply and the drop in demand.
So what happens price is soften. The stats show is
that the stats are going to keep showing it's that.
So if you are a home seller, get aggressive with
your price. Be realistic. Your house isn't a taj mahall.

(30:12):
It's not the best house in the neighborhood like you
think it is. There's a reason you own it. Everybody
thinks their house is the best house in the neighborhood.
Your house is worth what someone will pay for it,
and you have to price it to sell if you
actually want to sell. If you don't want to sell,
then don't put it on the market. If you don't
want to sell it at a price the market will bear,
then the market then now is in the market for you.
I see too many people. We get people all the

(30:32):
time calls and say I got this five hundred thousand
dollars house and may and if somebody paid me five
to fifty for it, I'd sell it. And there are
realtors that will take that listing. Now that us it's
a waste of time. No one's going to behay that
you're just gonna waste time on the market. Then you're
gonna get upset at your realtor because the home didn't sell,
when all the while, the only reason it didn't sell
is because you're in fantasy land on the price from
the beginning. So if you want to sell in today's

(30:54):
market with prices softening, you have to get ahead of
the downward trend. If we think prices are going to
drop another few percentage points, you need to price your
home with that now, because buyers are going to look
at this day and they're going to look at the math.
They're going to see the trend, and they're not going
to want to buy your house for what it was
worth six months or a year ago. They're going to
want to buy it for what it's going to be
worth in three to six months, which is probably going

(31:14):
to be less. So hopefully that makes sense. We're back
wrapping up the show with our last segment here on
the Duncan Duo Show. So back here on the Duncan
Duo Show, wrapping up with our last segment. I talked
in the last segment about the real estate stats, about
the dropping home values, the expected continuation of that through
my expectation belief is the first half of the year,
increase in housing supply, decrease in demand. Again, what does

(31:37):
that tell you, uh, dropping values. But we did see
an uptick in transactions in November, which was a solid sign.
So if you're thinking about selling your home, you want
an instant cash offer you when it guaranteed sale. You
want to price it and move it aggressively because that's
what it's going to take in today's market. I whipped
out the playbook for the Great Recession. You know I
was listing. I've been listing in selling real estate in

(31:58):
Tampa Bay for twenty years. I went through the Great Recession.
I remember the playbook. We called it a price war
and a beauty contest at the same time. You had
to be the best conditioned and the best price in
your subset of the market in order to sell. And
if you're not that, if you've got a condo and
you're pricing in the middle of everybody else or on

(32:18):
the high end because you think your condition warrants it.
You're not going to sell. If you want to sell
your property today, you have to price aggressive. If you're
not going to price aggressive, you're not knocking anybody off
the fence. Everybody that's out there right now that's looking
to buy wants a deal. You're you're just you have
to be aggressive. If you're not going to be aggressive,
then you shouldn't put it on the market. You should

(32:38):
wait until you can be or maybe until you find
something that you're going to buy that makes you feel
comfortable enough taking the hit on your house. Because what
a lot of people don't understand. Again, when you're in
a challenging market, you've got to you just have to.
You have to adapt, you have to change the way
that that that you're looking at selling and to put
it into perspective. In a twenty twenty three, for most

(33:02):
of the year, we hovered around two months of inventory. Okay,
two months of inventory is what we hovered around for years. Okay,
that went back to twenty one and twenty you know,
maybe one month for a little bit of time but
it was it was around two. We're over five now, okay,
so we're two hundred and fifty x. Okay, two hundred

(33:23):
and fifty percent excuse me, two point five x two
hundred and fifty percent increase in inventory. Right, So you
have a lot more competition, a lot more homes in
the market, and so you've got to compete against those.
You can just look at the comps from six months
or a year ago, because that was that complete different market. Now, okay,
you have to look at what you're competing with, what's

(33:43):
on the market. How can I beat everybody on the
market to be the next one that gets picked. Because
we've had so many negative things happen on our markets,
it's negatively contributed to what's going on. And if you're
going to move your house right now, you've got to
be aggressive. So and to kind of put it into perspective,
this is what a lot of people don't get about
real estate. It's probably one of the most frustrating things

(34:05):
that I've seen in my entire real estate career because
when I look at other things that I invest money in,
if I'm going to sell something, I'm looking at the
opportunity of what I'm going to buy let's just say
I own stock for five hundred thousand dollars in a company.
Maybe it's not been doing as well, or maybe it
did really well, and now it's time for me to

(34:27):
exit and take my gain. Regardless of what that is
me selling that stock, Okay, I'm choosing to sell it
to move the money into something else that I expect
will will do better for me number one, or laterally
will offset whatever I may not get or may not

(34:48):
get what I want out of that investment. I'll do
better on the other side. Okay. So here's what I
mean by that. Most people are smart with money. A
lot of people aren't. But if you're selling your house
and you're like, oh man, I can't sell them unless
I get five hundred and all i'm getting is four
to seventy, Okay, Well, then it's all relative. That just
means you need to get a thirty thousand dollars better

(35:09):
deal on what you buy. And guess what, that's completely realistic.
Right now, people are accepting lower offers. Different parts of
the country are doing better than others. If you don't
get what you want out of your house, it just
means you have to make it up on the buy,
or maybe you sacrifice a little on the buy to
get to where you really want to be. Because people
don't look at it relatively like that. They'll say like, oh,
I need to get the five hundred, and so they'll

(35:31):
wait for values to rise, and then their house is
five hundred, and then they go out to look and
guess what the house that they wanted to buy at
four fifty now it's five hundred because it went up too.
Because guess what happens if real estate values are going
up the real estate you're looking to buy it right now,
six months from now, it's going to go up too.
So look at it in the right perspective. If you're
selling your home and not getting the amount that you want, okay,

(35:53):
you're also with the seller that's selling you what you
want to buy isn't get what they want either. So
if you wait for your value go up, you're not
in a vacuum. Okay. If you wait for your value
to go up, guess what the value is gonna do
on the property you're gonna buy. It's gonna go up
to you didn't gain anything except you waste a whole
bunch of time living somewhere you don't want to really
want to live. So this idea that you have to

(36:15):
get to a certain number, it's it's it's nonsense. It
makes no sense at all because in reality, if you
wait for that fantasy Land number that doesn't exist right now,
the value is gonna go up what you want to
buy too, So it's really all relative. Hopefully you can
put that into a perspective when you go to sell
your property. Maybe you don't get the number that you want.
We'd love to get you the number that you want,

(36:35):
but it's just not sometimes realistic. If you're ready to
sell Duncan Duo dot com, you can get an instant
cash offer. We can come in, pay you cash quick, clean, simple.
That isn't always netting you the most money. Okay, let's
face it. If someone's gonna give you cash for your house,
they want to be able to turn around and make
a profit. Either they rent it and get a good
number turn or they fix it up and resell it

(36:56):
and make a gain. So they can't buy your house
for you know, your fantasy Land number cash because there's
not any profit in it. Okay, Like it's the people
buying houses for cash are not nonprofit organizations. They're they're
doing it to make a profit. Now, if you don't
want to go that path, we have the traditional path
where we put your home traditional retail market and we
market it to retail buyers and you take photos and

(37:18):
videos and you put it out there. So there are
different paths that you can go and all those are
available again a dunkin duo dot com where you can
also get a quick home value estimate at dunkinduo dot com.
We'll be back next weekend like we are every week
talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market, and have
an awesome rest of your weekend. Tampa Bay