Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Happy Sunday, Tampa Bay. We're with you for another week
(00:02):
here on the Duncan Duo Real Estate Show, like we
are every Sunday at ten o'clock, drop a knowledge and
keeping you updated on all things Tampa Bay real estate.
When we aren't on air, make sure to follow us
on all of our socials at the Duncan Duo Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, Facebook.
We are on all of them again at the Duncan Duo.
(00:22):
And I keep saying Twitter, but I should say x
which is actually my favorite social media channel. So we're
on all of them at the Duncan Duo. Follow us
there for up to date real estate news information. We
post videos and segments from the show, as well as
listings of cool properties that are listed by us as
well as listened by other people, neighborhood updates, and all
(00:43):
kinds of things going on on our socials again at
the Duncan Duo. So I want to talk about two
things in the news this week. One has a massive
local impact and one is really more of a national impact.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
The first one.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Is the potential about puishment of property taxes in Florida.
There's a lot of misinformation out there about this. You know,
I saw someone say, well if the if it gets
abolished in the counties will just charge it. And you
know understand that it is the counties that do charge
property taxes. Already. The property taxes go to the county
(01:20):
that you live in, Okay, and then there's some sort
of sharing with you know, municipality, cities, states, that sort
of thing. But the reality is is the property taxes
you pay already go to counties. What is being discussed
the abolishment of property taxes that no individual politician can
do that. DeSantis can't abolish property taxes, Okay, it has
(01:41):
to be a constitutional amendment. So Governor DeSantis has floated
the idea on x as well as on video and
in some interviews. And there's also a discussion about a
potential one thousand dollars rebate to homeowners in Florida. I'm
not going to touch on that right now simply because
I think it's pretty negligible and how much of an impact.
Of course, a lot of homeowners will love getting a
(02:02):
thousand dollars show up, But the reality is is the
abolishment of property tax this is a much bigger story,
much bigger impact.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
So how does that happen.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Well, first off, it has to go through you know,
some committees, it goes through our legislation, and they kind
of go back and forth with the governor and they
come up with a constitutional amendment that's strong that they
think has a chance to get a sixty percent of
the vote in twenty twenty six. So this is not
(02:30):
going to be on a ballot this year. This is
something that could be on the ballot in twenty twenty six.
You're gonna hear a lot of politicizing about this for
the next year in Florida. You're gonna hear a lot
of conversations about it. But what does it mean. Well,
if sixty percent of the people to vote, and if
it ends up on the ballot and sixty percent of
the people vote to abolish property taxes, they're abolished. The
(02:52):
counties can't charge them anymore.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Now, will the counties and the state and the cities
look for other sources of revenue? Of course, rumors are
you know, potential sales tax increases.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Not necessarily on the state level.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
The STATA said they won't do that, but but you know, counties, potentially,
cities potentially could do that as well as some additional
taxes on tourism to help Floridians that are frankly struggling
still financially with what happened with the storms. Massive increases
in insurance and property taxes. Now does why would this
(03:27):
have such a massive impact. Well, first off, if you
look at most homeowners property tax bill, it is much
more substantial than people's homeowner's insurance bill. Okay, it's a
rare circumstance to see someone that has a higher homeowner's
insurance than they do property taxes. And you've heard the
rumblings for years in Florida, the complaints to the lobbying
(03:50):
about how you know, homeowner's insurance has gotten so expensive
and made it, you know, impossible for people to survive,
and property taxes are more than that. Property taxes go away.
It will spike our real estate market. It will cause
more people to move here, just like not having state
income tax during COVID. It will put some strain on
(04:11):
our infrastructure. It will move people here. It will also
get all of the people that have been sitting on
the fence about interest rates. So I did just some
short quick math, because every person's situation is going to
be different. But for the average homeowner in Tampa Bay,
eliminating their property tax build would make their payment comparable
(04:32):
to what it was when we had three percent interst rates.
And we know what happened when we had three percent
interst rates. We had massive population growth. We also had
massive sales increases, we had home value increases. We've gone
through a few years in Florida without a lot of appreciation.
I believe an abolishment of property taxes would spike our market.
(04:52):
It would bring people here, It would cause transactions to happen.
People that have been sitting their homes not wanting to move,
would move because now they can go from a their
payment can stay the same. They can leave their three
percent interust rate for a five or a six and
be comfortable because the payment is comparable to what it
(05:14):
was prior to when they were paying the property taxes.
So there's no question it would have a massive swing
in our real estate market. It would create transactions, it
would create movement, and I believe it would in the
long term create equity. I believe we'd have more demand
for real estate, we have more transactions, and prices would rise.
So what does that mean, Well, we have no idea
if it will pass, Okay, it requires sixty percent, and
(05:36):
we know half of our voters, roughly our homeowners. So
I have a hard time believing that very many of
those when it comes time to fill out the little ballot,
are going to vote for themselves to pay more. I
don't believe there's a lot of people that really believe
they get a great value for what they pay in
taxes or great return on investment.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
They can say things, and there can be lobbyists.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
And people can say, oh, oh no, we don't want
to abolish property taxes. But when they sit in there
and they say, okay, average property tax bill, it's just
called five hundred a month, four hundred a month, they
look at it and they say, uh, yeah, I'd really
like to not pay that. I think I could use
that money for other things. So my point is is
that if you're thinking about buying real estate, if you're
(06:20):
thinking about investing, you might want to think about doing
it before that, because if you wait until that happens,
that's what that's what everyone's going to do. Smart money
is not always following the masses, because when you follow
the masses, just remove them m and that's who you're following. Okay,
smart money is looking to buy more real estate in
Florida right now, with the expectation that the odds are
(06:40):
high that that could pass. Now, people would say, well,
wait a second, if only fifty percent our homeowners, where
are the other ten percent going to come from to
get to that sixty percent number. Well, they're going to
come from real estate people that don't own homes. They're
going to come from people in the mortgage industry and
the construction industry that don't own homes, the title industry
(07:00):
that don't own homes. They're that ten percent could and
you know, reducing taxes already aligns you know, from a
from a party standpoint, to the right, and we're we're
already heavily you know, we're a more of a right
state than we are left. I mean, just recent legislation,
(07:21):
legislator elections proved that, you know, not only it was
Trump a heavy winter in Florida, it continues to be
more red than blue. So the likelihood is is something
to pass now here. What Here's what I think will
end up happening. And I've spoken to a couple of
you know, legislators about it, and my belief is that
(07:43):
it'll be really hard to get something economically that makes
sense that abolishes all property taxes. I think there's a
really strong chance of it passing, and again most of
the people that you know. Again, I think the majority
of what will likely happen is an abolishment of taxes
on homes below a certain dollar amount that are homesteaded,
(08:04):
So it won't necessarily benefit as much. You know, someone
that has a really expensive home, or someone that owns
investment property or hedge fund. Now, they may get some relief,
but not in a complete abolishment. I believe it'll be
an abolishment of property taxes below a certain price point,
and either way it will be a big boom for
our real estate market. It will be a big win,
(08:26):
and I think it's very likely. So if you are
thinking about buying real estate and you're going to wait
till next year, you might be competing with a lot
of other people that waited until this happened, and then
prices spike and then you're in bidding wars. Smart money
is looking at buying assets now, with the odds of
that some version of that or really strong version of
that passing being pretty high based on all the data
(08:47):
that's out there, so hopefully that's helpful for you in
terms of making your investment decisions. For me, I'm obviously
a proponent for it. I think there are other ways
to get the the the revenues to improve and continue
to improve our infrastructure and pay for our roads and
all that. I think we can get more efficient, as
we've seen with the federal government. And of course, you
(09:08):
know the so many elderly retiree homeowners that are still
kind of renting their property from the government even though
it's paid off, and I think that that needs to change.
I do think it's a draconian tax, and I think
there's a good chance of that passing now, so so
again I'm rooting for it. I hope it passes. We
had other economic news this week. The stock market obviously
(09:31):
having been extremely volatile, you're seeing swings I think even
days this week we saw swings of five percent in
a day for the NASDAC, you know, three or four
percent for the Dow and the S and P. Massive
swings in the real estate market this we're not real
estate mark in the stock market this week, and you
know where we didn't see massive swings and value the
(09:51):
real estate market. If you're somebody that's tired of the
roller coaster of the stock market and tired of the
emotional drain that you get, and you log in and
you look at your portfolio and you see these massive
swings up and down. Real estate does not have that.
Real estate loses value or gains value slowly. It's a
very methodical asset class. That's why so many millionaires use it.
(10:13):
It's a great tax beacon, it is. It is a
phenomenal investment strategy. If you're not investing in real estate
and your money's in the market and you're tired of
the up and down and the stresses, please reach out
to us. Hit us up, go to the Duck and
Duo dot com caller text us at eight one, three, three, five, nine,
eighty nine to ninety. I have agents who own massive
amounts of rental and investment property that specialize in helping
(10:34):
people build out an investment strategy. So if you're someone
that's tired of the you know, kind of the roller
coaster of Wall Street, and you want to put more
of your money and assets into real estate, I think
now is a phenomenal time. It's a phenomenal time because
what I think is going to happen with property tax
relief will cause values to go up. I think it's
a phenomenal time just in general, because you know, you
(10:58):
expect that interest rates are going to have some relief,
which we know again will improve our market. And it's
also phenomenal because despite all of the economic challenges the
last two years, you know, home values in Tampa Bay
have not decreased. We're slightly up or you know, you
know where we were. We're we're not appreciating, we're not depreciating,
We're we're stabilizing. So it is it's bound ahead in
(11:22):
that other direction, and it'll head there slowly, so it
won't have the massive swings and the stress and the
ups and downs and the emotional psychological downturns of the
stock market. So however, it's not likely to have you know,
fifty plus percent annual growth either like a stock might
or some stocks that three and four x in the year.
It's not likely to have that, but it is consistent.
(11:45):
It is consistent if you invest in real estate. If
you keep investing in real estate, you're going to create
welfare yourself consistently over time, and you're not going to
have to worry about the psychological downturn of massive drops
in the stock market. So hopefully that's helpful you if
you are interested in investing in real estate prior to
what I think in twenty twenty six could be a
(12:05):
huge boom in our market with lower rates and possibly
an abolishment of property taxes. I'm betting on real estate.
I think it's going to be an amazing year in
twenty six. I think twenty five is going to be
a better year than last year. Again assuming and hoping,
praying no major catastrophic storms. But if you want to
invest in real estate, hit us up at the Dunkin
(12:25):
Duo dot com or tech call text eight one three
three five nine eighty nine ninety reback bringing and continue
this conversation about the Tampa Bay real estate market after
a quick break here on the Duncan Duo Show. So
back here on the Duncan Duo Show, talking about the
Tampa Bay real estate market.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Andrew Duncan with the.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
Duncan Duo team at LPT Realty, been doing this show
for well over a decade now, dropping knowledge about everything
going on in Tampa real estate, and it's pretty amazing
to see what I have seen in my career. I
went from you know, becoming licensed, you know, twenty years ago.
My first year, i sold one whole. Legitimately, I sold
one home. So if you're a real estate agent and
(13:04):
you're struggling, know that I've been there. We just had
our best month in March that we'd had since twenty
twenty three, so our business is back growing again. It's exciting.
I'm kind of using the blueprint that I used during
the Great Recession to grow our business. And if you're
a real estate agent you struggled, or you're maybe that
agent that's in its first year and only so sold
(13:25):
one home, hopefully you can find like I found, great
mentors and coaches to help you get it to another level.
I'm grateful for all those people that helped me, and
I want to I want to continue to pass that
on to other real estate agents. So I'm proud to
lead so many agents at my company, help them coach
them weekly. And if that's something you're interested in, you know,
taking your business to another level, joining a company that's
(13:47):
growing and doing better than they did last year and
the year before that, despite the market not being is
in as good of a place. Going to join the
Duo dot com again, that is, join the Duo dot com.
You can register for one of our career nights. You
can apply to one of our open positions. You can
(14:08):
set up a confidential consultation with us. You can also
message us directly from there any questions or thoughts that
you have about becoming an agent. And if you're not
in real estate. If you're in real estate, great, we're
going to teach and coach you to hopefully break some
of your bad habits. If you're not where you want
to be from a performance perspective, If you're performing wonderfully
and you're a great agent, we want you to and
(14:29):
we can sprinkle some of our own magic on top
of what you're doing to help you take it to
another level. But if you're someone that's not in real
estate and you're thinking, wow, you know, maybe you know,
maybe that's not an industry I want to get into,
now is the perfect time to get in, because when
you get in and you establish the right the right
discipline and work ethic and principles, you will absolutely crush
(14:52):
it when the market picks up. If you get in
when the market's hot, you'll have bad habits, and those
bad habits will carry you and you have a hard
time adjusting and adapting. The market corrects and we have
a bad year in Tampa real estate, which we have,
you know, we have good years.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
And bad years.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
And I've seen so many agents fail out, go get jobs,
go pick up second jobs, quit the last couple of
years because the market isn't as easy as it was.
Maybe when they got in, they got in and the
market spiked and it was sunshine and rainbows and anybody
could make money in real estate, and that's not the
case now. So a lot of those agents were trained
during periods where they formed really bad habits that the
(15:27):
market covered up. You know, no different than like if
you're on a really really good basketball team and you've
got an injured player, you might still be able to
win because you can cover that guy up, okay now,
And that's the same thing that's happened in real estate
the last years. But a lot of those people now
aren't surviving. They're getting out, they're failing out, they're not
making money. So if you get in now and you
(15:48):
can succeed, man, you will absolutely create well through your family.
When the market spikes because you'll have the right discipline
and the right work ethic and you won't have those
form of bad habits. So I think now is a
great time to get into real estate because the market
won't spoil you. Market will teach you, it'll educate you,
it'll make you work. And that was similar to me.
(16:08):
You know, I got in, I got licensed snow five.
I really didn't get started until six. I started ramping
up about at the same time the Great Recession showed
up was when I started building my team. And you
know what, growing through that made me such a better
business leader, such a better agent and team owner. So
hopefully you can do the same. We'd love to help
(16:30):
you get there again. You can do that at Join
the Duo dot com and real estate Agents if you
want to kind of you know, kick the kick around
and see what we're about and meet some of our team.
Come out to our appreciation event. We're inviting all real
estate agents to our event. You can go to Duncan
Duo Party dot com. Again, that's Duncan Duo Party dot com.
It's an AMII arena on April twelfth, so a week
(16:53):
away from two to five pm while I'm skating on
the Amily Areena ice, free food, some T shirt, giveaway,
sign jerseys that we're going to give away to some
clients as well as skating on the amily Arena ice.
I'm even bringing out my new Ford GT so that
you know, some of our the kids of our clients
can get pictures in a cool car. Every time I
(17:15):
take it out, I get people wanted to take pictures
with it. So I figured why not bring it to
uh to our appreciation event and allow some of our
uh there, our children, of our clients and our clients
to get pictures sitting in it and with it, just
because when I've when I've taken it out, it's it's
obviously gets a lot of attention. So I'll have my
four GT there out on thunder Rally that day as well.
(17:35):
So again, join the Duo dot com if you're already
ready to join the team, and if you're just curious
you want to meet some of our people, you want
to see how we entertain and take care of our clients.
Heading out to our event on twelfth, go to Duncan
Duo Party dot com again, that's Duncan Duo Party dot Com.
I'll be there. I'll be on the mic making announcements.
We'll be helping people put on their skates and skate
(17:57):
on the ice. Very kid friendly event, so it's non alcohol,
but we'll have free food there and a lot of
other cool stuff. So again, if you want to join
us April twelfth, two to five Duncan Duo Party dot com. Again,
that is Duncan Duo Party dot com. And I mean back,
I'm going to talk. You know, I want to talk
a little bit about AI when we come back, because
(18:19):
it's really advancing so rapidly, and I want to talk
about how it's going to impact real estate. After a
quick break here on the Duncan Duo Show, so we're
back here on the Duncan Duo Show talking about Tampa
Bay real estate and AI is going to massively evolve
our industry. Real estate agents are going to have to adapt,
consumers are going to have to adapt. It is moving
(18:40):
at such a rapid paste that people that don't evolve
with it are going to get left behind. Streamlining tasks,
scaling teams, improving overall productivity, valuation, automated evaluation. And here's
something else. And no matter which AI you're a fan of,
there's going to be iteration of different ones. There's going
(19:01):
to be new things they roll out, but there you know,
and I'm I use AI all the time. I'm a
Grock fan. You know, I'm an Elon fan, so I'm
I'm a groc guy. Chat GPT is super effective as well.
The the reality is is that the more you use it,
the more you realize how how much leverage it gives
(19:21):
you and how much it can help you streamline tasks
and come up with information and answers. The second thing
that I would say, though, is that eventually AI is
going to replace customer service. It's already happening. You know,
you're you're your live chat with Frontier or Verizon, and
it's a I right and you have to ask it
(19:42):
a live agent. It is heading in the direction where
the live agent is going to be AI. You're not
going to know it, you know, even verbally, phone calls
are going to be AI. You know, there are services
out there that we're a part of, the companies that
we partner with that are already rolling out ways where
we can call our clients with AI. And so again,
(20:04):
these are clients that have opted in, that have authorized
you know, all that kind of This is not cold
college telemarketing stuff. So the point is is that if
you're not getting ahead and paying attention to what's going
on with the AI, you potentially may not even know
that it's AI doing it. So if you're a real
estate agent, get familiar with it. Find your favorite large
language model, whether it's rock chatch, ept, whether it's anthropy,
(20:28):
it doesn't matter. Get used to using AI and get
comfortable with it, because if you don't, the market is
going to pass you. Your consumer is going to know
more about it than you are. They're going to be
plugging stuff in and they're going to look at that.
It's no different than a real estate agent in the
past having to get familiar with what Zilo might spit
out about a house. AI is going to replace a
lot of that. So so again, get comfortable what they
(20:50):
get used to it, and you know, hopefully it will
help leverage real estate agents. It'll help provide better service,
better valuation, and higher levels of customer service re clients.
So again, you're listening to the Duncan Duo Show when
we aren't on air. At the Duncan Duo Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok,
Facebook x instead of Twitter. I gotta get used to
(21:12):
that x. So if you want to come out to
our appreciation event again, reminder Duncan Duo party dot com again,
that is duncanduoparty dot com. We'd love to have you
April twelfth, from two to five pm. We would love
to see you there. We'd love to spend an afternoon
(21:34):
with you, show your family a great time, get some
skating on the Amili Arena ice, and just again have
a have a great experience with you. The other a
couple other cool things that we've got there that we
do there. We give away some shirts, we give away
some sign jerseys, there's food. Sometimes we'll get some lightning
(21:55):
people that will show up. We've had ex players at
our event, you know. So if it's something that intrigues you,
if you've never skated on the Emily Arena ice, it
is a it's a cool opportunity and hope that hope
that we can see you out there. So one thing
(22:16):
I ran into this week, and this is something that's
pretty common in real estate right now, and I want
to make everyone aware of this because I think there's
this misnomer and confusion about it. If you are looking
at buying property in Penelas County, maybe even flooded homes. Okay,
there are a lot of agents out there representing customers
(22:38):
that really don't even know what they're talking about. I
have no idea about the fifty percent rule, or given
bad advice, or you know, they're miss they're they're missing,
they're missing the boat entirely. They've not educated themselves. One
thing that I ran into this week with one of
my agents that I want to let everybody know about.
If you're looking at buying flooded homes, if your house flooded,
(22:58):
if you know in Penell's County, Penell's County, on the
property Appraiser's site has put a FEMA letter on every
single property in the county. Not every single property got flooded,
not every single property they think got flooded. Every single
property has a FEMA flood letter. And all it is
(23:20):
is an AI automation that says, you know, the structure
value that the county has determined for your property is X,
and you can rebuild and spend up to X with
contractors to rebuild your home. And if you can't do
it within that range, and your home needs to be
raised because they don't want you to invest more than
(23:41):
fifty percent of the structure's value. So here's what I
want you guys to understand about that. Okay, I regularly
sell homes for double what the county assesses a property at. Okay,
there are sometimes it's close, there's sometimes it's low. There
sometimes it's high. There's people to challenge taxes. Okay, the
(24:01):
county uses a lot of automation to try and determine
your number. And it's about what they can charge you
for taxes, not necessarily about what your property is worth.
So if you've got a letter, if you're property flooded,
if you bought a flood at home and there's a
letter attached, understand that that is not the law of
the land. Okay, that is a baseline an appraisal of
(24:24):
the property with a proper appraiser that says that the
valuation of the structure is higher than that based on
comparable sales that they can show is a way to
dispute that. So if you've gotten one of those letters,
if you have looked at a property that has one
of those letters, understand that it is not the law
of the land. It's not the Bible it's not say all,
(24:46):
be all. Okay, it's also ai every single property got it.
If your property got it, if somebody pulled it up
and they're trying to buy your house, they're freaked out
and panicked because of it. Every property got it. Yours
isn't unique. Every single property Penelas County has that letter.
And a lot of times the letters are laughably wrong.
There's a townhome that I own, and the townhome that
(25:07):
I own because it's a townhome, and the multi family
all of the structures, like thirty of them got built
into the end of the sty and the letter came
out and said that, like the building value of my
townhome was like eighteen million or something crazy. Right, So
even those letters are wrong. Okay, So that's why you
(25:27):
have to go through the process. That's why you might
need an appraiser and a contractory. That's why, again, don't
just take those letters from the county as being completely accurate.
They're flawed. There's a lot of them that are wrong,
especially when it comes to multifamily and especially in neighborhoods
that have appreciated a lot, in homes that have been
homesteaded for a really long time and didn't get reassessed.
(25:48):
I'm telling you right now, some of those letters are
are laughably low. So get with an appraiser, you know,
have have comps run, you know, have the appraiser to
term the appropriate building value, maybe just maybe the building
value that he assesses your property at, and then you
work with contractors. The home can be remediated or bought
(26:08):
and not have to be torn down or raised up.
So hopefully that's helpful for some people out there because
there's a lot of misinformation about it. But Penell's County
put that out there as an automation on every single property,
and I've we've had multiple real estate agents the last
few weeks freaked out because they're buying home and oh
my goodness, you told me this house wasn't flooded.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
And there's a femal letter.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
Oh well, did you lie to us or you've got
the you know, there's a FEMA letter on this house.
FEMA knows about the flooding. You know, all of these
things are happening, and the reality is it's on every
FEMA may certainly know about the flooding. They may, but
that letter is not an indicator of that. That letter
is automation on every property from Panell's County. So hopefully
that makes sense. If you want to search for your
(26:51):
next investment property, go to the dunkin Duo dot com.
I can tell you right now one thing real estate
doesn't do. It doesn't go up or down five percent
in a day like the stock market. If you are
struggling with the you know the ramifications of the up
and down and the swings of the stock market this week,
buy more real estate investment in real estate. It is
(27:11):
slow and steady wins the race. In real estate you
have you can own a home and it can go
up twelve, fifteen, eighteen percent every year and it's pretty consistent.
It doesn't have these huge swings. You get great tax benefits,
you get great write offs, you get to improve the property.
You can't improve your stock. You can't show up at
Google tomorrow and help improve the value of the stock.
(27:32):
You can with your real estate. You can put sweat
equity into it real estate. There's a reason why the
majority of millionaires in this country have used real estate
to create that wealth. It's not as if the stock
market can't be good for you. There's plenty of people
that are experts at it that can win at the
stock market game. However, real estate is a more consistent,
(27:55):
you know, less up and down, less volatile way to
create wealth. And if you want to create more wealth
with the real estate, I have advisors on my team.
I have agents on my team that specialize this. Some
of them own a lot of rental property.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
They can help you.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
They can also help you buy homes to flip and
renovate and fix up. So if you don't want to
keep your money in the market and you want to
get consistent returns and you want to partner with a
company that's been in this market for twenty years helping
clients buy and sell real estate, I have agents that
specialize in this and we can help you. Just go
(28:30):
to the Duncan Duo dot com inquire and we will
make sure to get you to the right agent on
our team that can help you look at and buy
investment property.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Again, that's the Dunkin Duo.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
You can also call her Texas if you want to
call her Texas about investing in real estate, what you'd
like to invest in, you can do that at eight
one to three, three, five nine, eight, nine nine zero.
And I really do believe that twenty twenty six may
be a huge, huge year for real estate if our
state abolishes property taxes. If it passes twenty six and
(29:02):
twenty seven could be we could be right back to
seeing what we saw during COVID and the huge upswinging
surge because we'll get population growth. Payments will go down
dramatically more so than if interest rates drop, and interest
rates are expected to head on a downward trend in
the next two years. So I think we're on the
verge of seeing that, and smart money right now is
(29:23):
looking at real estate and saying, you know what, it
may not make money this year, and maybe it doesn't
next year, but it's gonna do well because of all
the things that are pointing in the right direction. Our
state is in a great place economically. There's just so
much good going on, and it's why we've been placed
that so many people move to The only wild card
(29:43):
in any of that, Okay, the only wild card in
any of that is this hurricane season. If we get
hit with major storms, it'll obviously have a negative impact.
If we don't, we are we are going to go
into a market where our values are going to spike.
If the property taxes get abolished, and I think they're
gonna go up artless because I think rates are going
to drop. But if rates drop and property taxes get abolished,
(30:06):
we are going to see a lot of people moving.
And we're gonna see a lot of people moving here.
And we're gonna see a lot of people in our
market that have been holding back and not moving. They're
going to go and move. So sit tight if you
do what you can, if you're a real estate agent,
to grind through it and get ready, and if you're
somebody that's looking for great returns, I think real estate
in our market is going to do very well the
next few years. I'm going to continue this conversation with
(30:27):
our last segment on The Duncan Duo Show after a
quick break here on WFLA News. So back here on
the Duncan Duo Show, talking about the Tampa Bay real
estate market. And I want to I want to follow
up on a post I made on my personal Facebook
this week about mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures and the
fear mongering that some of these financial influencers and hustlers
(30:48):
and you know and and course sellers are throwing out
there on social media about foreclosures are coming and the
market's going to crash. I want to boil that myth
out of the water right now. First off, the chart
that got shit all over social media last week. It
was a chart about multi family delinquencies. Multi family are
like apartment buildings, And of course the commercial real estate
(31:10):
market is a much worse case than the residential real
estate market, much worse. Okay, they're not even the same animals,
they're completely different asset classes. So when you're talking about
how the foreclosure is coming, foreclosures coming, you post an
article you know or not an article. You make a
post scaring people that more homes are going into foreclosure,
and then you post a multifamily graph. You basically eliminated
your credibility. So I want to tell you that mortgage
(31:32):
foreclosures are slightly higher. Okay, they are slightly higher. However,
they are still at record lows. They're slightly higher than
last year. Okay, we still have a massive more than
half of our market, the most homes ever in our
market that are paid for with cash that don't have mortgages. Okay,
those people are going to get foreclosed. On the second thing,
(31:55):
we have is that there's so many homeowners that even
if they miss a payment here or there, are in
such record low interest rates that they could turn around
and rent their home before it would ever end up
as a foreclosure.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
The third thing the amount of equity. There are, of
course people behind on their mortgage at a little higher
clip than last year, in the year before. In our market,
the reality is that the number of people delinquent is
still much much lower than it was during the Great Recession,
despite the posts trying to scare people to say it's worse,
because there's also a lot more homes that have sold.
(32:30):
We've created homes, we've created real estate in the last
twenty years that I think I saw something like there
were thirty or forty.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
No, no, it's a higher number that it's like sixty.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
Percent more homes available for sale. So percentage wise, we're
way below where it was in a Great Recession. The
next thing I want to talk to you about why
foreclosures won't ever impact our market again. So despite those
scare tactics, the data does not point to more foreclosures happening,
or the delinquencies are really relevant. Because of these things,
(33:00):
people are still in this twenty year vacuum. When they
think about foreclosures, thinking, oh god, people are behind they're
going to turn into foreclosures, not if they have equity,
because they can just rent the property out and the
bank ain't going to foreclose on it if it's got equity,
because guess what, they just want their money. They're going
to do what's called for bearans. They learned about it
during COVID. They figured it out. The banks and the government,
(33:21):
the Fed. The fix is in foreclosures will never ever
ever happen the way that they did during the Great
Recession because the banks, the institutions, and the federal government
and I'm talking about residential Okay, the banks that fed
the institution, they all learned. So now they just trade assets.
Somebody goes delinquent, they traded it, and eventually they end
up offering that person money to leave and they turn
it into a rental. The hole never hits the foreclosure
(33:44):
because they know those foreclosures end up going for lower
prices and they drag values now in the neighborhoods, which
eliminates their ability to loan. It eliminates their ability to
loan and rent and all these other things. Foreclosures just
won't happen because they discovered four bearans. So not only
do we have a record number of people that have
bought cash, and a record an amount of equity and
a record number of people with more than thirty percent equity. Yes,
(34:04):
we have a few more delinquencies. We got hit with
a massive storm and it caused some financial obstacles for people.
But the reason why we won't have a repeat of
the Great Recession is because all of those positive economic things,
the equity positions, the amount of cash, the amount of
funds that are out there, and forbearance. The banks don't
(34:24):
have any interest in foreclosing. They figured out with forbearance
that they could ensure that they still get their money.
They could just kick the can down the road until
that person figures it out or picks their stuff back up,
or trade the asset to somebody else who then ends
up approaching the homeowner and saying, hey, why don't I
just give you some money and you give the property
back to me, and then I turned it into a rental.
It never shows up as a low sale to start
(34:45):
dragging values down on the market. The fix is in people, Okay,
foreclosure aren't happening again. Stop get buying into the fear
monitoring that these people that only want to sell you
a course. They simply want to sell you a course
the way to sign up for their program and give
them money, so they're scaring you to death. Closures are
gonna happen. They're not gonna happen, okay. Not only is
the fix in from the government, but the data just
(35:05):
doesn't align with that. Okay, And especially because they've posted
a chart that had absolutely nothing to do with residential
foreclosures trying to scare people. I posted on my own Facebook.
So foreclosures slightly up? Are they going to be relevant again?
Pretty much?
Speaker 2 (35:18):
Never?
Speaker 1 (35:19):
Pretty much never. There is so much institutional cash in
the real estate market that those homes will never end
up trading hands to an end user consumer and a foreclosure.
There'll be so few of those because they'll simply just
inter trade assets with each other. Those funds and banks
will just trade their bad assets to another thunder bank.
The thunder bank will send people out to negotiate with
(35:41):
the seller to leave. They'll take the property back. It'll
show up as like a quick claim one hundred dollars sale.
It'll never turn into an actual sale or a foreclosure
sale or a short sale in a lot of instances.
So the reality, don't buy into it. It's not happening,
especially not gonna happen here because I think our prices
are going to spike next year, which means anyone that's
(36:03):
in a bad position can just sell it. Are there
going to be foreclosures always? It's going to be people
that bought the last couple of years at really high
rates that run into a financial struggle.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (36:13):
And there's not enough of those people to negatively impact
the market. And the majority of those foreclosures will be
really small institutions, small lenders, credit unions, the big banks
to the institutions. They figured it out. The fix is in.
They're not going to let foreclosures derail the market again.
They just won't let it happen. Residential real estate has
this little bubble around it protecting it, and it'll always
be there because they realize if they let anything else happen,
(36:36):
you know, it will decimate people in our country. They
figured it out in COVID, Okay, because if they didn't
figure it out during COVID, people would have been decimated.
And we did not see record numbers of foreclosures. Now
it's the playbook, okay, So hopefully that helps you understand
the myths about foreclosures and the scare tactics because it
won't happen. And if you want to come to our
party April twelfth, two to five pm, Amilely Arena duncan
(36:59):
do a party and have an awesome rest of your weekend.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
Tampa Bay
Happy Sunday, Tampa Bay. We're with you for another week
(00:02):
here on the Duncan Duo Real Estate Show, like we
are every Sunday at ten o'clock, drop a knowledge and
keeping you updated on all things Tampa Bay real estate.
When we aren't on air, make sure to follow us
on all of our socials at the Duncan Duo Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, Facebook.
We are on all of them again at the Duncan Duo.
(00:22):
And I keep saying Twitter, but I should say x
which is actually my favorite social media channel. So we're
on all of them at the Duncan Duo. Follow us
there for up to date real estate news information. We
post videos and segments from the show, as well as
listings of cool properties that are listed by us as
well as listened by other people, neighborhood updates, and all
(00:43):
kinds of things going on on our socials again at
the Duncan Duo. So I want to talk about two
things in the news this week. One has a massive
local impact and one is really more of a national impact.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
The first one.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Is the potential about puishment of property taxes in Florida.
There's a lot of misinformation out there about this. You know,
I saw someone say, well if the if it gets
abolished in the counties will just charge it. And you
know understand that it is the counties that do charge
property taxes. Already. The property taxes go to the county
(01:20):
that you live in, Okay, and then there's some sort
of sharing with you know, municipality, cities, states, that sort
of thing. But the reality is is the property taxes
you pay already go to counties. What is being discussed
the abolishment of property taxes that no individual politician can
do that. DeSantis can't abolish property taxes, Okay, it has
(01:41):
to be a constitutional amendment. So Governor DeSantis has floated
the idea on x as well as on video and
in some interviews. And there's also a discussion about a
potential one thousand dollars rebate to homeowners in Florida. I'm
not going to touch on that right now simply because
I think it's pretty negligible and how much of an impact.
Of course, a lot of homeowners will love getting a
(02:02):
thousand dollars show up, But the reality is is the
abolishment of property tax this is a much bigger story,
much bigger impact.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
So how does that happen.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Well, first off, it has to go through you know,
some committees, it goes through our legislation, and they kind
of go back and forth with the governor and they
come up with a constitutional amendment that's strong that they
think has a chance to get a sixty percent of
the vote in twenty twenty six. So this is not
(02:30):
going to be on a ballot this year. This is
something that could be on the ballot in twenty twenty six.
You're gonna hear a lot of politicizing about this for
the next year in Florida. You're gonna hear a lot
of conversations about it. But what does it mean. Well,
if sixty percent of the people to vote, and if
it ends up on the ballot and sixty percent of
the people vote to abolish property taxes, they're abolished. The
(02:52):
counties can't charge them anymore.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Now, will the counties and the state and the cities
look for other sources of revenue? Of course, rumors are
you know, potential sales tax increases.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Not necessarily on the state level.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
The STATA said they won't do that, but but you know, counties, potentially,
cities potentially could do that as well as some additional
taxes on tourism to help Floridians that are frankly struggling
still financially with what happened with the storms. Massive increases
in insurance and property taxes. Now does why would this
(03:27):
have such a massive impact. Well, first off, if you
look at most homeowners property tax bill, it is much
more substantial than people's homeowner's insurance bill. Okay, it's a
rare circumstance to see someone that has a higher homeowner's
insurance than they do property taxes. And you've heard the
rumblings for years in Florida, the complaints to the lobbying
(03:50):
about how you know, homeowner's insurance has gotten so expensive
and made it, you know, impossible for people to survive,
and property taxes are more than that. Property taxes go away.
It will spike our real estate market. It will cause
more people to move here, just like not having state
income tax during COVID. It will put some strain on
(04:11):
our infrastructure. It will move people here. It will also
get all of the people that have been sitting on
the fence about interest rates. So I did just some
short quick math, because every person's situation is going to
be different. But for the average homeowner in Tampa Bay,
eliminating their property tax build would make their payment comparable
(04:32):
to what it was when we had three percent interst rates.
And we know what happened when we had three percent
interst rates. We had massive population growth. We also had
massive sales increases, we had home value increases. We've gone
through a few years in Florida without a lot of appreciation.
I believe an abolishment of property taxes would spike our market.
(04:52):
It would bring people here, It would cause transactions to happen.
People that have been sitting their homes not wanting to move,
would move because now they can go from a their
payment can stay the same. They can leave their three
percent interust rate for a five or a six and
be comfortable because the payment is comparable to what it
(05:14):
was prior to when they were paying the property taxes.
So there's no question it would have a massive swing
in our real estate market. It would create transactions, it
would create movement, and I believe it would in the
long term create equity. I believe we'd have more demand
for real estate, we have more transactions, and prices would rise.
So what does that mean, Well, we have no idea
if it will pass, Okay, it requires sixty percent, and
(05:36):
we know half of our voters, roughly our homeowners. So
I have a hard time believing that very many of
those when it comes time to fill out the little ballot,
are going to vote for themselves to pay more. I
don't believe there's a lot of people that really believe
they get a great value for what they pay in
taxes or great return on investment.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
They can say things, and there can be lobbyists.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
And people can say, oh, oh no, we don't want
to abolish property taxes. But when they sit in there
and they say, okay, average property tax bill, it's just
called five hundred a month, four hundred a month, they
look at it and they say, uh, yeah, I'd really
like to not pay that. I think I could use
that money for other things. So my point is is
that if you're thinking about buying real estate, if you're
(06:20):
thinking about investing, you might want to think about doing
it before that, because if you wait until that happens,
that's what that's what everyone's going to do. Smart money
is not always following the masses, because when you follow
the masses, just remove them m and that's who you're following. Okay,
smart money is looking to buy more real estate in
Florida right now, with the expectation that the odds are
(06:40):
high that that could pass. Now, people would say, well,
wait a second, if only fifty percent our homeowners, where
are the other ten percent going to come from to
get to that sixty percent number. Well, they're going to
come from real estate people that don't own homes. They're
going to come from people in the mortgage industry and
the construction industry that don't own homes, the title industry
(07:00):
that don't own homes. They're that ten percent could and
you know, reducing taxes already aligns you know, from a
from a party standpoint, to the right, and we're we're
already heavily you know, we're a more of a right
state than we are left. I mean, just recent legislation,
(07:21):
legislator elections proved that, you know, not only it was
Trump a heavy winter in Florida, it continues to be
more red than blue. So the likelihood is is something
to pass now here. What Here's what I think will
end up happening. And I've spoken to a couple of
you know, legislators about it, and my belief is that
(07:43):
it'll be really hard to get something economically that makes
sense that abolishes all property taxes. I think there's a
really strong chance of it passing, and again most of
the people that you know. Again, I think the majority
of what will likely happen is an abolishment of taxes
on homes below a certain dollar amount that are homesteaded,
(08:04):
So it won't necessarily benefit as much. You know, someone
that has a really expensive home, or someone that owns
investment property or hedge fund. Now, they may get some relief,
but not in a complete abolishment. I believe it'll be
an abolishment of property taxes below a certain price point,
and either way it will be a big boom for
our real estate market. It will be a big win,
(08:26):
and I think it's very likely. So if you are
thinking about buying real estate and you're going to wait
till next year, you might be competing with a lot
of other people that waited until this happened, and then
prices spike and then you're in bidding wars. Smart money
is looking at buying assets now, with the odds of
that some version of that or really strong version of
that passing being pretty high based on all the data
(08:47):
that's out there, so hopefully that's helpful for you in
terms of making your investment decisions. For me, I'm obviously
a proponent for it. I think there are other ways
to get the the the revenues to improve and continue
to improve our infrastructure and pay for our roads and
all that. I think we can get more efficient, as
we've seen with the federal government. And of course, you
(09:08):
know the so many elderly retiree homeowners that are still
kind of renting their property from the government even though
it's paid off, and I think that that needs to change.
I do think it's a draconian tax, and I think
there's a good chance of that passing now, so so
again I'm rooting for it. I hope it passes. We
had other economic news this week. The stock market obviously
(09:31):
having been extremely volatile, you're seeing swings I think even
days this week we saw swings of five percent in
a day for the NASDAC, you know, three or four
percent for the Dow and the S and P. Massive
swings in the real estate market this we're not real
estate mark in the stock market this week, and you
know where we didn't see massive swings and value the
(09:51):
real estate market. If you're somebody that's tired of the
roller coaster of the stock market and tired of the
emotional drain that you get, and you log in and
you look at your portfolio and you see these massive
swings up and down. Real estate does not have that.
Real estate loses value or gains value slowly. It's a
very methodical asset class. That's why so many millionaires use it.
(10:13):
It's a great tax beacon, it is. It is a
phenomenal investment strategy. If you're not investing in real estate
and your money's in the market and you're tired of
the up and down and the stresses, please reach out
to us. Hit us up, go to the Duck and
Duo dot com caller text us at eight one, three, three, five, nine,
eighty nine to ninety. I have agents who own massive
amounts of rental and investment property that specialize in helping
(10:34):
people build out an investment strategy. So if you're someone
that's tired of the you know, kind of the roller
coaster of Wall Street, and you want to put more
of your money and assets into real estate, I think
now is a phenomenal time. It's a phenomenal time because
what I think is going to happen with property tax
relief will cause values to go up. I think it's
a phenomenal time just in general, because you know, you
(10:58):
expect that interest rates are going to have some relief,
which we know again will improve our market. And it's
also phenomenal because despite all of the economic challenges the
last two years, you know, home values in Tampa Bay
have not decreased. We're slightly up or you know, you
know where we were. We're we're not appreciating, we're not depreciating,
We're we're stabilizing. So it is it's bound ahead in
(11:22):
that other direction, and it'll head there slowly, so it
won't have the massive swings and the stress and the
ups and downs and the emotional psychological downturns of the
stock market. So however, it's not likely to have you know,
fifty plus percent annual growth either like a stock might
or some stocks that three and four x in the year.
It's not likely to have that, but it is consistent.
(11:45):
It is consistent if you invest in real estate. If
you keep investing in real estate, you're going to create
welfare yourself consistently over time, and you're not going to
have to worry about the psychological downturn of massive drops
in the stock market. So hopefully that's helpful you if
you are interested in investing in real estate prior to
what I think in twenty twenty six could be a
(12:05):
huge boom in our market with lower rates and possibly
an abolishment of property taxes. I'm betting on real estate.
I think it's going to be an amazing year in
twenty six. I think twenty five is going to be
a better year than last year. Again assuming and hoping,
praying no major catastrophic storms. But if you want to
invest in real estate, hit us up at the Dunkin
(12:25):
Duo dot com or tech call text eight one three
three five nine eighty nine ninety reback bringing and continue
this conversation about the Tampa Bay real estate market after
a quick break here on the Duncan Duo Show. So
back here on the Duncan Duo Show, talking about the
Tampa Bay real estate market.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Andrew Duncan with the.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
Duncan Duo team at LPT Realty, been doing this show
for well over a decade now, dropping knowledge about everything
going on in Tampa real estate, and it's pretty amazing
to see what I have seen in my career. I
went from you know, becoming licensed, you know, twenty years ago.
My first year, i sold one whole. Legitimately, I sold
one home. So if you're a real estate agent and
(13:04):
you're struggling, know that I've been there. We just had
our best month in March that we'd had since twenty
twenty three, so our business is back growing again. It's exciting.
I'm kind of using the blueprint that I used during
the Great Recession to grow our business. And if you're
a real estate agent you struggled, or you're maybe that
agent that's in its first year and only so sold
(13:25):
one home, hopefully you can find like I found, great
mentors and coaches to help you get it to another level.
I'm grateful for all those people that helped me, and
I want to I want to continue to pass that
on to other real estate agents. So I'm proud to
lead so many agents at my company, help them coach
them weekly. And if that's something you're interested in, you know,
taking your business to another level, joining a company that's
(13:47):
growing and doing better than they did last year and
the year before that, despite the market not being is
in as good of a place. Going to join the
Duo dot com again, that is, join the Duo dot com.
You can register for one of our career nights. You
can apply to one of our open positions. You can
(14:08):
set up a confidential consultation with us. You can also
message us directly from there any questions or thoughts that
you have about becoming an agent. And if you're not
in real estate. If you're in real estate, great, we're
going to teach and coach you to hopefully break some
of your bad habits. If you're not where you want
to be from a performance perspective, If you're performing wonderfully
and you're a great agent, we want you to and
(14:29):
we can sprinkle some of our own magic on top
of what you're doing to help you take it to
another level. But if you're someone that's not in real
estate and you're thinking, wow, you know, maybe you know,
maybe that's not an industry I want to get into,
now is the perfect time to get in, because when
you get in and you establish the right the right
discipline and work ethic and principles, you will absolutely crush
(14:52):
it when the market picks up. If you get in
when the market's hot, you'll have bad habits, and those
bad habits will carry you and you have a hard
time adjusting and adapting. The market corrects and we have
a bad year in Tampa real estate, which we have,
you know, we have good years.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
And bad years.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
And I've seen so many agents fail out, go get jobs,
go pick up second jobs, quit the last couple of
years because the market isn't as easy as it was.
Maybe when they got in, they got in and the
market spiked and it was sunshine and rainbows and anybody
could make money in real estate, and that's not the
case now. So a lot of those agents were trained
during periods where they formed really bad habits that the
(15:27):
market covered up. You know, no different than like if
you're on a really really good basketball team and you've
got an injured player, you might still be able to
win because you can cover that guy up, okay now,
And that's the same thing that's happened in real estate
the last years. But a lot of those people now
aren't surviving. They're getting out, they're failing out, they're not
making money. So if you get in now and you
(15:48):
can succeed, man, you will absolutely create well through your family.
When the market spikes because you'll have the right discipline
and the right work ethic and you won't have those
form of bad habits. So I think now is a
great time to get into real estate because the market
won't spoil you. Market will teach you, it'll educate you,
it'll make you work. And that was similar to me.
(16:08):
You know, I got in, I got licensed snow five.
I really didn't get started until six. I started ramping
up about at the same time the Great Recession showed
up was when I started building my team. And you
know what, growing through that made me such a better
business leader, such a better agent and team owner. So
hopefully you can do the same. We'd love to help
(16:30):
you get there again. You can do that at Join
the Duo dot com and real estate Agents if you
want to kind of you know, kick the kick around
and see what we're about and meet some of our team.
Come out to our appreciation event. We're inviting all real
estate agents to our event. You can go to Duncan
Duo Party dot com. Again, that's Duncan Duo Party dot com.
It's an AMII arena on April twelfth, so a week
(16:53):
away from two to five pm while I'm skating on
the Amily Areena ice, free food, some T shirt, giveaway,
sign jerseys that we're going to give away to some
clients as well as skating on the amily Arena ice.
I'm even bringing out my new Ford GT so that
you know, some of our the kids of our clients
can get pictures in a cool car. Every time I
(17:15):
take it out, I get people wanted to take pictures
with it. So I figured why not bring it to
uh to our appreciation event and allow some of our
uh there, our children, of our clients and our clients
to get pictures sitting in it and with it, just
because when I've when I've taken it out, it's it's
obviously gets a lot of attention. So I'll have my
four GT there out on thunder Rally that day as well.
(17:35):
So again, join the Duo dot com if you're already
ready to join the team, and if you're just curious
you want to meet some of our people, you want
to see how we entertain and take care of our clients.
Heading out to our event on twelfth, go to Duncan
Duo Party dot com again, that's Duncan Duo Party dot Com.
I'll be there. I'll be on the mic making announcements.
We'll be helping people put on their skates and skate
(17:57):
on the ice. Very kid friendly event, so it's non alcohol,
but we'll have free food there and a lot of
other cool stuff. So again, if you want to join
us April twelfth, two to five Duncan Duo Party dot com. Again,
that is Duncan Duo Party dot com. And I mean back,
I'm going to talk. You know, I want to talk
a little bit about AI when we come back, because
(18:19):
it's really advancing so rapidly, and I want to talk
about how it's going to impact real estate. After a
quick break here on the Duncan Duo Show, so we're
back here on the Duncan Duo Show talking about Tampa
Bay real estate and AI is going to massively evolve
our industry. Real estate agents are going to have to adapt,
consumers are going to have to adapt. It is moving
(18:40):
at such a rapid paste that people that don't evolve
with it are going to get left behind. Streamlining tasks,
scaling teams, improving overall productivity, valuation, automated evaluation. And here's
something else. And no matter which AI you're a fan of,
there's going to be iteration of different ones. There's going
(19:01):
to be new things they roll out, but there you know,
and I'm I use AI all the time. I'm a
Grock fan. You know, I'm an Elon fan, so I'm
I'm a groc guy. Chat GPT is super effective as well.
The the reality is is that the more you use it,
the more you realize how how much leverage it gives
(19:21):
you and how much it can help you streamline tasks
and come up with information and answers. The second thing
that I would say, though, is that eventually AI is
going to replace customer service. It's already happening. You know,
you're you're your live chat with Frontier or Verizon, and
it's a I right and you have to ask it
(19:42):
a live agent. It is heading in the direction where
the live agent is going to be AI. You're not
going to know it, you know, even verbally, phone calls
are going to be AI. You know, there are services
out there that we're a part of, the companies that
we partner with that are already rolling out ways where
we can call our clients with AI. And so again,
(20:04):
these are clients that have opted in, that have authorized
you know, all that kind of This is not cold
college telemarketing stuff. So the point is is that if
you're not getting ahead and paying attention to what's going
on with the AI, you potentially may not even know
that it's AI doing it. So if you're a real
estate agent, get familiar with it. Find your favorite large
language model, whether it's rock chatch, ept, whether it's anthropy,
(20:28):
it doesn't matter. Get used to using AI and get
comfortable with it, because if you don't, the market is
going to pass you. Your consumer is going to know
more about it than you are. They're going to be
plugging stuff in and they're going to look at that.
It's no different than a real estate agent in the
past having to get familiar with what Zilo might spit
out about a house. AI is going to replace a
lot of that. So so again, get comfortable what they
(20:50):
get used to it, and you know, hopefully it will
help leverage real estate agents. It'll help provide better service,
better valuation, and higher levels of customer service re clients.
So again, you're listening to the Duncan Duo Show when
we aren't on air. At the Duncan Duo Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok,
Facebook x instead of Twitter. I gotta get used to
(21:12):
that x. So if you want to come out to
our appreciation event again, reminder Duncan Duo party dot com again,
that is duncanduoparty dot com. We'd love to have you
April twelfth, from two to five pm. We would love
to see you there. We'd love to spend an afternoon
(21:34):
with you, show your family a great time, get some
skating on the Amili Arena ice, and just again have
a have a great experience with you. The other a
couple other cool things that we've got there that we
do there. We give away some shirts, we give away
some sign jerseys, there's food. Sometimes we'll get some lightning
(21:55):
people that will show up. We've had ex players at
our event, you know. So if it's something that intrigues you,
if you've never skated on the Emily Arena ice, it
is a it's a cool opportunity and hope that hope
that we can see you out there. So one thing
(22:16):
I ran into this week, and this is something that's
pretty common in real estate right now, and I want
to make everyone aware of this because I think there's
this misnomer and confusion about it. If you are looking
at buying property in Penelas County, maybe even flooded homes. Okay,
there are a lot of agents out there representing customers
(22:38):
that really don't even know what they're talking about. I
have no idea about the fifty percent rule, or given
bad advice, or you know, they're miss they're they're missing,
they're missing the boat entirely. They've not educated themselves. One
thing that I ran into this week with one of
my agents that I want to let everybody know about.
If you're looking at buying flooded homes, if your house flooded,
(22:58):
if you know in Penell's County, Penell's County, on the
property Appraiser's site has put a FEMA letter on every
single property in the county. Not every single property got flooded,
not every single property they think got flooded. Every single
property has a FEMA flood letter. And all it is
(23:20):
is an AI automation that says, you know, the structure
value that the county has determined for your property is X,
and you can rebuild and spend up to X with
contractors to rebuild your home. And if you can't do
it within that range, and your home needs to be
raised because they don't want you to invest more than
(23:41):
fifty percent of the structure's value. So here's what I
want you guys to understand about that. Okay, I regularly
sell homes for double what the county assesses a property at. Okay,
there are sometimes it's close, there's sometimes it's low. There
sometimes it's high. There's people to challenge taxes. Okay, the
(24:01):
county uses a lot of automation to try and determine
your number. And it's about what they can charge you
for taxes, not necessarily about what your property is worth.
So if you've got a letter, if you're property flooded,
if you bought a flood at home and there's a
letter attached, understand that that is not the law of
the land. Okay, that is a baseline an appraisal of
(24:24):
the property with a proper appraiser that says that the
valuation of the structure is higher than that based on
comparable sales that they can show is a way to
dispute that. So if you've gotten one of those letters,
if you have looked at a property that has one
of those letters, understand that it is not the law
of the land. It's not the Bible it's not say all,
(24:46):
be all. Okay, it's also ai every single property got it.
If your property got it, if somebody pulled it up
and they're trying to buy your house, they're freaked out
and panicked because of it. Every property got it. Yours
isn't unique. Every single property Penelas County has that letter.
And a lot of times the letters are laughably wrong.
There's a townhome that I own, and the townhome that
(25:07):
I own because it's a townhome, and the multi family
all of the structures, like thirty of them got built
into the end of the sty and the letter came
out and said that, like the building value of my
townhome was like eighteen million or something crazy. Right, So
even those letters are wrong. Okay, So that's why you
(25:27):
have to go through the process. That's why you might
need an appraiser and a contractory. That's why, again, don't
just take those letters from the county as being completely accurate.
They're flawed. There's a lot of them that are wrong,
especially when it comes to multifamily and especially in neighborhoods
that have appreciated a lot, in homes that have been
homesteaded for a really long time and didn't get reassessed.
(25:48):
I'm telling you right now, some of those letters are
are laughably low. So get with an appraiser, you know,
have have comps run, you know, have the appraiser to
term the appropriate building value, maybe just maybe the building
value that he assesses your property at, and then you
work with contractors. The home can be remediated or bought
(26:08):
and not have to be torn down or raised up.
So hopefully that's helpful for some people out there because
there's a lot of misinformation about it. But Penell's County
put that out there as an automation on every single property,
and I've we've had multiple real estate agents the last
few weeks freaked out because they're buying home and oh
my goodness, you told me this house wasn't flooded.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
And there's a femal letter.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
Oh well, did you lie to us or you've got
the you know, there's a FEMA letter on this house.
FEMA knows about the flooding. You know, all of these
things are happening, and the reality is it's on every
FEMA may certainly know about the flooding. They may, but
that letter is not an indicator of that. That letter
is automation on every property from Panell's County. So hopefully
that makes sense. If you want to search for your
(26:51):
next investment property, go to the dunkin Duo dot com.
I can tell you right now one thing real estate
doesn't do. It doesn't go up or down five percent
in a day like the stock market. If you are
struggling with the you know the ramifications of the up
and down and the swings of the stock market this week,
buy more real estate investment in real estate. It is
(27:11):
slow and steady wins the race. In real estate you
have you can own a home and it can go
up twelve, fifteen, eighteen percent every year and it's pretty consistent.
It doesn't have these huge swings. You get great tax benefits,
you get great write offs, you get to improve the property.
You can't improve your stock. You can't show up at
Google tomorrow and help improve the value of the stock.
(27:32):
You can with your real estate. You can put sweat
equity into it real estate. There's a reason why the
majority of millionaires in this country have used real estate
to create that wealth. It's not as if the stock
market can't be good for you. There's plenty of people
that are experts at it that can win at the
stock market game. However, real estate is a more consistent,
(27:55):
you know, less up and down, less volatile way to
create wealth. And if you want to create more wealth
with the real estate, I have advisors on my team.
I have agents on my team that specialize this. Some
of them own a lot of rental property.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
They can help you.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
They can also help you buy homes to flip and
renovate and fix up. So if you don't want to
keep your money in the market and you want to
get consistent returns and you want to partner with a
company that's been in this market for twenty years helping
clients buy and sell real estate, I have agents that
specialize in this and we can help you. Just go
(28:30):
to the Duncan Duo dot com inquire and we will
make sure to get you to the right agent on
our team that can help you look at and buy
investment property.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Again, that's the Dunkin Duo.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
You can also call her Texas if you want to
call her Texas about investing in real estate, what you'd
like to invest in, you can do that at eight
one to three, three, five nine, eight, nine nine zero.
And I really do believe that twenty twenty six may
be a huge, huge year for real estate if our
state abolishes property taxes. If it passes twenty six and
(29:02):
twenty seven could be we could be right back to
seeing what we saw during COVID and the huge upswinging
surge because we'll get population growth. Payments will go down
dramatically more so than if interest rates drop, and interest
rates are expected to head on a downward trend in
the next two years. So I think we're on the
verge of seeing that, and smart money right now is
(29:23):
looking at real estate and saying, you know what, it
may not make money this year, and maybe it doesn't
next year, but it's gonna do well because of all
the things that are pointing in the right direction. Our
state is in a great place economically. There's just so
much good going on, and it's why we've been placed
that so many people move to The only wild card
(29:43):
in any of that, Okay, the only wild card in
any of that is this hurricane season. If we get
hit with major storms, it'll obviously have a negative impact.
If we don't, we are we are going to go
into a market where our values are going to spike.
If the property taxes get abolished, and I think they're
gonna go up artless because I think rates are going
to drop. But if rates drop and property taxes get abolished,
(30:06):
we are going to see a lot of people moving.
And we're gonna see a lot of people moving here.
And we're gonna see a lot of people in our
market that have been holding back and not moving. They're
going to go and move. So sit tight if you
do what you can, if you're a real estate agent,
to grind through it and get ready, and if you're
somebody that's looking for great returns, I think real estate
in our market is going to do very well the
next few years. I'm going to continue this conversation with
(30:27):
our last segment on The Duncan Duo Show after a
quick break here on WFLA News. So back here on
the Duncan Duo Show, talking about the Tampa Bay real
estate market. And I want to I want to follow
up on a post I made on my personal Facebook
this week about mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures and the
fear mongering that some of these financial influencers and hustlers
(30:48):
and you know and and course sellers are throwing out
there on social media about foreclosures are coming and the
market's going to crash. I want to boil that myth
out of the water right now. First off, the chart
that got shit all over social media last week. It
was a chart about multi family delinquencies. Multi family are
like apartment buildings, And of course the commercial real estate
(31:10):
market is a much worse case than the residential real
estate market, much worse. Okay, they're not even the same animals,
they're completely different asset classes. So when you're talking about
how the foreclosure is coming, foreclosures coming, you post an
article you know or not an article. You make a
post scaring people that more homes are going into foreclosure,
and then you post a multifamily graph. You basically eliminated
your credibility. So I want to tell you that mortgage
(31:32):
foreclosures are slightly higher. Okay, they are slightly higher. However,
they are still at record lows. They're slightly higher than
last year. Okay, we still have a massive more than
half of our market, the most homes ever in our
market that are paid for with cash that don't have mortgages. Okay,
those people are going to get foreclosed. On the second thing,
(31:55):
we have is that there's so many homeowners that even
if they miss a payment here or there, are in
such record low interest rates that they could turn around
and rent their home before it would ever end up
as a foreclosure.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
The third thing the amount of equity. There are, of
course people behind on their mortgage at a little higher
clip than last year, in the year before. In our market,
the reality is that the number of people delinquent is
still much much lower than it was during the Great Recession,
despite the posts trying to scare people to say it's worse,
because there's also a lot more homes that have sold.
(32:30):
We've created homes, we've created real estate in the last
twenty years that I think I saw something like there
were thirty or forty.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
No, no, it's a higher number that it's like sixty.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
Percent more homes available for sale. So percentage wise, we're
way below where it was in a Great Recession. The
next thing I want to talk to you about why
foreclosures won't ever impact our market again. So despite those
scare tactics, the data does not point to more foreclosures happening,
or the delinquencies are really relevant. Because of these things,
(33:00):
people are still in this twenty year vacuum. When they
think about foreclosures, thinking, oh god, people are behind they're
going to turn into foreclosures, not if they have equity,
because they can just rent the property out and the
bank ain't going to foreclose on it if it's got equity,
because guess what, they just want their money. They're going
to do what's called for bearans. They learned about it
during COVID. They figured it out. The banks and the government,
(33:21):
the Fed. The fix is in foreclosures will never ever
ever happen the way that they did during the Great
Recession because the banks, the institutions, and the federal government
and I'm talking about residential Okay, the banks that fed
the institution, they all learned. So now they just trade assets.
Somebody goes delinquent, they traded it, and eventually they end
up offering that person money to leave and they turn
it into a rental. The hole never hits the foreclosure
(33:44):
because they know those foreclosures end up going for lower
prices and they drag values now in the neighborhoods, which
eliminates their ability to loan. It eliminates their ability to
loan and rent and all these other things. Foreclosures just
won't happen because they discovered four bearans. So not only
do we have a record number of people that have
bought cash, and a record an amount of equity and
a record number of people with more than thirty percent equity. Yes,
(34:04):
we have a few more delinquencies. We got hit with
a massive storm and it caused some financial obstacles for people.
But the reason why we won't have a repeat of
the Great Recession is because all of those positive economic things,
the equity positions, the amount of cash, the amount of
funds that are out there, and forbearance. The banks don't
(34:24):
have any interest in foreclosing. They figured out with forbearance
that they could ensure that they still get their money.
They could just kick the can down the road until
that person figures it out or picks their stuff back up,
or trade the asset to somebody else who then ends
up approaching the homeowner and saying, hey, why don't I
just give you some money and you give the property
back to me, and then I turned it into a rental.
It never shows up as a low sale to start
(34:45):
dragging values down on the market. The fix is in people, Okay,
foreclosure aren't happening again. Stop get buying into the fear
monitoring that these people that only want to sell you
a course. They simply want to sell you a course
the way to sign up for their program and give
them money, so they're scaring you to death. Closures are
gonna happen. They're not gonna happen, okay. Not only is
the fix in from the government, but the data just
(35:05):
doesn't align with that. Okay, And especially because they've posted
a chart that had absolutely nothing to do with residential
foreclosures trying to scare people. I posted on my own Facebook.
So foreclosures slightly up? Are they going to be relevant again?
Pretty much?
Speaker 2 (35:18):
Never?
Speaker 1 (35:19):
Pretty much never. There is so much institutional cash in
the real estate market that those homes will never end
up trading hands to an end user consumer and a foreclosure.
There'll be so few of those because they'll simply just
inter trade assets with each other. Those funds and banks
will just trade their bad assets to another thunder bank.
The thunder bank will send people out to negotiate with
(35:41):
the seller to leave. They'll take the property back. It'll
show up as like a quick claim one hundred dollars sale.
It'll never turn into an actual sale or a foreclosure
sale or a short sale in a lot of instances.
So the reality, don't buy into it. It's not happening,
especially not gonna happen here because I think our prices
are going to spike next year, which means anyone that's
(36:03):
in a bad position can just sell it. Are there
going to be foreclosures always? It's going to be people
that bought the last couple of years at really high
rates that run into a financial struggle.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (36:13):
And there's not enough of those people to negatively impact
the market. And the majority of those foreclosures will be
really small institutions, small lenders, credit unions, the big banks
to the institutions. They figured it out. The fix is in.
They're not going to let foreclosures derail the market again.
They just won't let it happen. Residential real estate has
this little bubble around it protecting it, and it'll always
be there because they realize if they let anything else happen,
(36:36):
you know, it will decimate people in our country. They
figured it out in COVID, Okay, because if they didn't
figure it out during COVID, people would have been decimated.
And we did not see record numbers of foreclosures. Now
it's the playbook, okay, So hopefully that helps you understand
the myths about foreclosures and the scare tactics because it
won't happen. And if you want to come to our
party April twelfth, two to five pm, Amilely Arena duncan
(36:59):
do a party and have an awesome rest of your weekend.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
Tampa Bay
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