Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'm me Sunday, Tampa Bay. We're with you for another
(00:02):
week here on the Duncan Duo Real Estate Show, like
we are every Sunday at ten talking about the Tampa
Bay real estate market. Andrew Duncan with the Duncan Duo
team at LPT Realty. I'm excited to be headed to
the Ocean Side mastermind with LPT Realty. I'm going to
spend some time with some of my LPT family for
(00:23):
three days this coming week and talk about team growth
within LPT. And that is one of the things I
love about LPT Realty, utilizing the top teams and agents
within the brand to constantly teach, help and educate other
growing agents. So excited to be there next week talking
(00:43):
about that and letting other agents with an LPT know
the things that I've done over the years to help
grow my business. When we aren't on air, make sure
to foll us on all of our socials at the
Duncan Duo, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok and Facebook. In at
the Duncan Duo pretty much every social channel. Why are
(01:04):
we putting out content on YouTube, Instagram, Facebook about what's
going on in real estate? Real estate tips? For home
buyers and sellers, as well as a lot of tips
for real estate agents. So if you're a real estate
agent and you're looking for education, we're putting that out
there as well. And if your real estate agents struggling
where you are. I think a lot of real estate
agents right now are looking for something extra or people
(01:27):
that are getting into the business. And I want to
explain that what I think is the number one mistake
most real estate agents go miss make when they get
into the business. You know, if you look at you know,
when I own other businesses. You know, through the years,
I've added extra kind of businesses that are extensions of
(01:48):
my real estate brand. And I see things operate a
lot differently in other industries. But the failure rate for
real estate agents is massively high. It's massively high because
I think that real estate agents, you know, sometimes think
that it's easy, or they see a friend doing well
and don't they don't see what the friend did to
(02:09):
get to where they are, driving like a cool car
or living in a nice house. They just see the
cool car in a nice house and they think that
it's easy. But we have one of the highest failure
rates of any industry. On Earth, and I think that
a lot of real estate agents make the mistake of
shopping on price. Okay, and you know, I've always said,
(02:30):
cheap work ain't good, and good work ain't cheap. When
you shop a real estate brokerage and you look for
the cheapest one, you're going to get what you pay
for as a brand new agent. Way too many make
that mistake, and then they're out within a few years.
They're out within a few years because mentorship, leads, coaching, marketing, advice,
all of those things aren't free. Brokers just have to
(02:53):
provide those and when they're not providing a lot of
those things for an agent, the agents go out and
fail at a massively high rate, and then they're out
of the business within six months. Most real estate agents
that get their license are out of the business within
a year. So if you're one of those agents thinking
about getting in, my advice to you, whether that's you
joining my team or another team, is to look to
(03:14):
join a team environment, go somewhere where you are going
to get support, where you're going to get leads, where
you're going to get help and assistance. Obviously, we're always
hiring Jointhduo dot com we have a direct mentor assigned
to you. We have a massive lead generation and marketing plan,
accountability coaching on deals, and our agents succeed at a
(03:37):
higher level than the norms in the marketplace because there's
a structure. If you don't want a structure, Basically, what
you're saying is you don't really want to work hard.
If you don't have structure. As a new agent, you're
going to try and do all the things. You're going
to try and become a great marketer, a great negotiator,
a great shower of homes, a great finder of real estate,
(03:58):
great at the contracts. You can't quickly be great at
all of those things. If you do, you are going
to fail. And that's what most real estate agents do.
They go to the place and say, hey, we're going
to give you one hundred percent of the commission. Give
you one hundred percent of the commission. You're going to
go there and then you're going to have you're going
to be just a number because that's a mill. They
just want you to pay your you know, your dues
(04:22):
get paid whenever you do a deal. And there will
be a certain number percentage of people that figure it
out and then That's how they win is the people
that figure it out pay for all the people that
aren't figuring it out. But a massive number of them
don't figure it out. If you go somewhere where there
is the structure, where there's a compensation model that rewards
the company or the team or the brokerage enough to
(04:44):
be able to provide you all of these things, you can.
You don't have to become an expert at marketing or contracts.
You can, bit by bit just great, get great at
one thing at a time because the team takes those
things off of your plate that you're not going to
get good at fast enough or great at fast enough
in order to be able to make an income to
support your family. So massively high failure rates in real estate.
(05:05):
You know, again, you probably know somebody personally if you're
listening to this that's failed in real estate. And again,
most of the time it is they don't have enough
coaching and they don't have enough leads. Every If you're
going somewhere that's promising you that, oh, you've just got
to call your friends and family and your sphere of influence.
(05:26):
If you know a lot of people, all those people
you know, they know twenty seven other realtors, okay, and
those realtors have been in the business a while and
sold homes and have success, and they've built trust with
that person. For you to win them over, you're going
to have to perform. And you're not going to be
able to perform on your friends and family because they're
not going to trust you enough yet they already know
realtors they trust. So if you're wanting something where you
(05:48):
can plug into an existing egosphere where there's a CRM
and a system and a lead generation platform, coaching, accountability
and a massive lead spend, hit us up into duo
dot com again, that is, join the duo dot com.
We're always looking to add agents. LPT Realty is a
great place as well. But if you're new, that's what
(06:11):
you need. If you're existing and you're struggling again, sometimes
you know, to jump start your career, you need a
new opportunity, you need a new place, you need to
go deeper. But I'm a firm believer in the real
estate brokerage business that you do get what you pay for.
If you're going to the place that looks like you're
going to get the majority of the commission on every deal.
You're assuming you're going to be able to create deals,
(06:33):
and most of you, with that assumption will fail. And
that's just math. Okay, it's not a personal attack. It's
the statistics. The math show us that most real estate
agents that get into the business fail within the first year,
and the five year fail rate failure rate is massively
high as well. So, having done this for twenty years,
I know how to coach an agent from zero to hero.
(06:55):
We've done it countless times. There are a ton of
real estate agents running their own owned businesses now that
started with me, that have built their own teams, you know.
So if that's something you aspire to, why not learn
it from somebody that's already done it. You trying to
recreate that on your own somewhere just isn't great. And
I see recruiters from real estate companies all the time saying, oh,
(07:15):
we're going to be able to do this and we
can do that. It's rampant in our industry that the
people out there recruiting have never done what they say
that they're going to help you do in their company. Right,
So go where it's proven you're going to get the
support to help the coaching that you need again, that
is Jointhduo dot com. And we are always looking for
people that want to work. Key for us is that
(07:38):
we don't want the agents they're just going to part time,
hang a license, do a deal here and there. We
want people to plug in full time. Real estate isn't
a part time opportunity. If you're going to be successful
at it, you need to plug in and spend the time.
You need to have a little bit of backlog of
money if you don't have that, and I coach every
single person that I can, like, reduce your expenses, you know,
(08:01):
make sure that you can handle not getting paid for
a little while. These are all things that matter because
a lot of people get in and then after a
month they don't have a check, and then they get
commission breath. And I'm sure every person out there has
dealt with the salesperson with commission breath, whether it's going
to Nordstrom, or whether it's going to buy a car,
(08:23):
whether it's somebody catching you on the phone that wants
to sell you a home warranty or a car warranty,
whatever it is. If you if you don't get into
the real estate business with a little bit of pad
and and you know a little bit of money or
cut your expenses down to where you can kind of
grind through that period of time it's going to take
you to learn. You're gonna run off a lot of
(08:44):
clients and you're probably not gonna succeed because you're gonna
have too much pressure to earn the right People that
get into the business make a plan ahead of time.
They've got a nest egg, they've they've made the right choices,
they've reduced some expense, and they're willing to get through
that period of time that'll take for them to be successful.
And I've said this, I put this out on a
(09:04):
video recently that I think now is one of the
best opportunities ever to get into real estate if you're
doing it for the right reasons and you're doing it
to build a long term career. Okay, and here's why.
Similar to when I got in during the Great Recession, Okay,
if you get in now, you're going to be forced
to have to work really hard because it's not easy.
(09:25):
The transactions are harder to close, it's harder to find buyers,
it's harder to get home sold. Interest rates are higher, affordability.
All of these reasons are why it's a deterrent for
a lot of people to get into real estate. But
if you get into real estate now and you do
the work, and you go somewhere that will force you
to work and be accountable to standards and processes. If
(09:50):
you do that, you will establish the habits so that eventually,
when the economy turns in a better direction, it'll sprinkle
some magic on all that effort and work ethic that
you've built grinding it out during a time when it's
really tough for real estate. If you get in now
and you grind it out and you're successful when the
market turns, you will have the opportunity to earn more
(10:11):
than you ever thought in your life, build your own business,
all of these things. A lot of people get in
when the market's hot because it's easy, okay, and it's
a you know, get rich quick scheme. They're going to
make a bunch of money, and then before long they're
out when the market turns. If you get in when
the market's down, you're going to have the right in
you succeed, okay. You will have a wonderful long term
(10:34):
career because you'll build the habits, the standards, and have
the accountability that when the economy improves, your business and
your income will skyrocket, and you will benefit greatly from
the choices that you make. If you get in when
it's easy, the market will chew you up and spit
you out when it turns the other direction. And that's
what we're seeing right now. We're seeing a lot of
(10:56):
realistic agents getting out of the business, or they're keeping
their license, but they're doing their stuff. They're getting a
side gig, they're driving for uber lyft or bartending, whatever
it is. They're doing that to make ends meet because
they never really they got in when it was hot,
and they never really established the right disciplines or habits
because the money was flowing and it was easy to
sell home. Any any couple a few years ago, anyone
(11:16):
with a pulse could have sold a home. Everything was selling.
Interest rates were two and three percent. Who wouldn't buy
more real estate when it's six and seven percent. It's
a grind and it's hard, and if you can be
successful at it now, you will have a very long
and prosperous real estate career, you know, for the long term.
So if you want to build that. Now is a
(11:38):
great time for it. But you have to go somewhere
to learn. You have to be learning based, you have
to go somewhere that's going to get you leads, and
we offer that. So again Jointduo dot Com. We're not
the only real estate team. We believe we're the best.
I'm biased just because the track record and the ability
to navigate agents through multiple markets and help them grow
their business as I've grown mind. So hopefully we'll have
(12:00):
the opportunity to do that with you again. That is
Join the Duo dot Com and I'm back continue this
conversation after a quick break here on the Duncan Duo Show.
So we're back here on the Duncan Duo Show talking
about the Tampa Bay real estate market. Andrew Duncan with
the Duncan Duo LPT Realty. You spent the first segment
really talking to the realtors out there not accomplishing what
they want or new. We're people thinking about getting into
(12:21):
the business and encouraging Go to our website, read share
for our career night, or apply for one of our
open positions at Joined the Duo dot com. We are
looking to grow. I've actually put the pedal to the
metal on our marketing spend this year. I've spent more
on marketing this year, you know, than genuine generally my
company can afford, simply because I'm ramping up to grow.
I want to provide opportunities for more agents. And I
(12:44):
know that twenty six and twenty seven have the opportunity
to be incredible real estate markets with things heading in
the direction that they're heading. So I hope that's you
joined the duo dot com. I had Grant holcome from
my commercial division on last week and we had a
really great conversation about the differences between residential and commercial.
And I joked because as a commercial real estate buyer,
(13:08):
you know, and I don't work with the customers as
much unless it's automotive, which is usually more of a
passion of mind because I have a lot of friends
in that space. But I talked to Grant and one
of the things that I find, uh, really frustrating about
commercial real estate is that the real estate agents that
work in commercial don't call you back like it it's
(13:30):
it's nearly impossible to get a hold of people. And
so I want to give out Grant's number. I gave
it out last week eight one three, six oh five
one two one nine again eight one three, six oh
five one two one nine. Or Grant at the Duncan
Duo dot com. Grant Holcombe Grant at the Duncan Duo
dot com. Eight one three, six oh five, one two
(13:50):
one nine. Grant will answer his phone. Grant will respond
to your text messages. Grant will help you. He has
a really broad base of commercial experience, having help people sell,
you know, land for development, churches, industrial retail buying, selling lease,
his multifamily. He's really done a lot of different commercial things.
(14:12):
If you have something really, really really specific, he can
certainly help hone that in. He's got some relationships with
commercial brokerages. But the thing that I think that's great
about Grant is Monday through Sunday, the guy answers his
phone and he responds to his text messages. I can't
tell you how many times I've wanted to get in
and look at a commercial property as a buyer or
get some information, and it's like pulling teeth. I don't
(14:33):
know what commercial agents do all day to not be
able to ever respond to phone calls. But that's the
struggle that I've had I've had I've dealt with multiple
commercial real estate agents and it's it's like a it's
like a broken record, not getting a phone call back
or not getting a text or an email when I
want information or have questions. So if you want to
not have that experience, again, hit up Grant eight one
(14:54):
three six oh five one two one nine again eight
one three, six oh five one two one nine or
Grant at the Duncan Duo dot com. I actually think
the commercial real estate is primed for a nice upswing it. Really,
commercial real estate is really tied to interest rates. There
there's a lot of discussion about FED rate changes, and
(15:16):
again the FED rate is not a one hundred percent
indicator of what happens to mortgage rates. The FED rate
can drop and mortgage rates can still say hi. But
with commercial I believe that there are a lot of
because money is expensive right now, there are a lot
of people putting their money into other investments. And I've
started to see more and more people reach out to
(15:37):
Grant because they know what's coming. They know if there
is a movement of interest rates in twenty twenty, you know,
late twenty five, which that's out there twenty six and
twenty seven, and we get back down to a lower
rate environment that the commercial real estate market will do
exactly what it did the last time and spike on price.
So smart people right now are saying, hey, now is
(15:59):
the time for me to jump out there and start
looking at commercial because I might have to pay a
little bit more on my rate, or I buy it
cash and then do a refi when the rates are lower,
but I can get a better deal right now. And
that's completely accurate. Grant has negotiated some incredible deals recently
for clients. If you were looking at real estate in
the commercial segment for the long term, you want to
(16:20):
get in now before the rate drops and then prices rise,
and it's more competitive when more people jump in, more
hedge funds start buying, there's more competition. Some of my
friends that there are some of the smartest, wealthiest commercial
real estate people I know are jumping in and looking
for more opportunity right now because they know what's coming.
They've been in the business long enough they can see
(16:40):
what's happening. And if that is you again, Grant can
help eight one, three, six oh five, twelve, nineteen or
Grant at the Duncan duo, dot com and commercial has
been beat up. You know, it has. It's you know,
if you look at commercial real estate values specifically across
Tampa Bay, they've been depressed, they've they've dropped. So as
(17:03):
a buyer right now, especially again when buying for the
long term, you have a great opportunity to negotiate and
get great deals when the market is flowing and rates
are low and prices arising. You know, it's also the
seller's advantage. Everything right now in the commercial space is
to the buyer's advantage in almost every segment. There are
some segments of the marketplace that are that are you know,
(17:25):
where sellers still kind of drive the drive the bargain.
Waterfront stuff, development stuff, downtown. There are still Davis Island,
for example. There's still some hot pockets. But for the
most part, the buyers are in control right now and
they have a great opportunity to lock in equity for
the long term, and they have great negotiation you know,
(17:46):
great negotiation leverage that they have to have for a
long time. And I believe that will swing back the
other direction and a lot of people will look back
on this time and say, you know, man, I should
have bought more real estate. It's funny, you know, having
been in this business for such a long time, I
remember two periods of time when I said I should
have bought more real estate. The first one was the
(18:07):
period of time during the Great Recession, short sales, foreclosures.
You know, you had a year or two of prices
just dropping and they got so cheap that I should
have just and again I did buy a lot. I
should have bought even I should have found ways to
buy more. The second time that I felt like was
and again I did it here too. The time to
buy more real estate was when interest rates got so
(18:30):
crazy low. You know very quickly that you knew prices
had to rise. That was an incredible buying opportunity. And
now I think we see that same thing again. The
difference back then was your payment. You know, your your
payment would be lower, That was really the value, but
you knew prices were going to upswing. Well, now if
(18:50):
we can predict that rates are going to drop, we
eventually know that when rates drop, prices are going to
ahead in the other direction. And every single data point
points to twenty six twenty seven having lower interest rates, again,
a lot could change. But if we know that that's
coming now, it's such a great time to buy. It
really is. So again Granted The Duncan Duo dot Com
(19:12):
eight one three six oh five one two one nine
to get Grant's help with commercial buy, sell or lease
opportunities and the other thing I love about Grant because
I feel like I don't get this with most commercial agents.
He's got a great personality. He's funny. Guy's really funny,
like he could probably do stand up comedy. And most
of the commercial agents I've dealt with are like dry,
(19:33):
very analytical, and Grant has that, but he's also funny.
So if you want an enjoyable experience, buyer Selle Commercial
again eight one three six five twelve nineteen. I'd be
back continue this conversation after quick break here on the
Duncan Duo Show. So we're back here on the Duncan
Duo Show talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market.
Andrew Duncan the Duncan Duo Team LPT Realty. So I
(19:53):
bought a few homes this week, and I want to
remind listeners that, look, you have a lot of options
when selling real estate today. There are hedge funds, that
buy houses. There's the retail market where you're likely to
get more money. And then of course there's local investors
of which I am one and have my own fund
to buy investment opportunities. So if you have investment opportunities,
(20:16):
and look if you're an agent or a wholesaler, your
opportunity probably isn't something I'm interested in. The fees associated
all of those types of things to control my title
company not being involved. All of those things are reasons
why I have a pretty simple buy box where we
want to buy direct from consumer and we want to
buy homes that we're going to renovate and resell. So
(20:38):
if you own real estate, maybe it failed on the market,
maybe you didn't get it sold, Maybe you inherited some
real estate. Maybe it needs a lot of work, maybe
there was an insurance claim. All of those things are
reasons why we would look at buying real estate. So
I am a buyer of homes. So if you are
interested in a cash offer, a quick, clean cash from
(21:01):
a local investor that has been doing this for a
really long time, has a great track record. I think
my reputation speaks for itself. We buy a lot of
real estate and We have a lot of a lot
of raving fans duncanduo dot com. You can go there,
you can request a cash offer. Our team will reach
out talk you through the different steps, and then one
of my partners will come out and take a look
at the property. But we're regularly competing with some of
(21:23):
the hedge funds, and I think some of the things
that we offer that a lot of the hedge funds don't.
Will get creative with closing dates, we can close really fast.
We can also do post occupancy. We can buy stuff
that's got permit issues. We can buy stuff that's got
tenants in it still that you want us to take
care of. We can buy stuff that needs massive renovations.
I'm not a huge fan of buying flood homes because
(21:47):
the femous stuff is a huge pain in that you
know what. But if it's you know, if you're selling
it from a vacant land value perspective, I would probably
look at it. But we're really looking for, you know,
older homes to for maintenance motivated people that just want
to move and just want money quick as quick as
a week. So if that's something you're interested in, again,
(22:07):
Dunkin Duo dot Com request your cash offer, and we'd
love to have one of my acquisitions associates come out
take a look and decide what we can do. But
speaking of cash offers, I want to kind of explain
this from a perspective of the consumer, so you guys
see this, the cash offer is is not the right
(22:29):
call for a lot of people. If your goal is
to get the most amount of money out of the property,
the cash offer probably isn't the right solution for you
because the person that's buying the home. In my case,
you know my fund, we're going to have to renovate
it and resell it. We're not wanting to. We're not
a nonprofit. Okay, I give a lot to a nonprofit.
I have my own foundation, But our entity that buys
(22:52):
and resells property wants to buy it so that we
can renovate it and then sell it and earn an income. Now,
if you want acts value out of the house, there
really isn't typically a lot of opportunity for renovation, okay,
or for that for profit. It's kind of like going
to a car dealership. You know, if you've got a
twenty five thousand dollars car, car dealership. Let's say they'll
(23:14):
give you, you know, seventy or eighty percent, sometimes a little
higher depending on the demand. They're going to give you
a lower price than what you could probably sell or
on your own on the retail market. And that's simply
because they're going to turn around and now sell your
car for retail. So there's got to be enough of
a spread for it to make financial sense for us.
We know we can park money in a mutual fund
(23:35):
and make a pretty much guaranteed over over you know,
fifteen years. I've got funds that have guaranted that have
made me, you know, ten plus percent every single year.
So it's got to be a good enough return for
it to make sense for us. And I think that's
the case for any investor. If you're someone that is
focused on getting the most amount of money, though the
cash offer probably isn't right for you. Convenience is really
(23:55):
the key, the quickness. The expedients think you've got something
and you don't want to spend thirty to sixty days
selling it, but you you know, you can sell it
to someone will who will take it for the thirty
sixty days and take the risk and deal with it.
Like trading in a car or you know, taking something
to a pawnshop for example. Those are kind of examples.
(24:16):
So again, the retail market is typically right for most clients.
We're going to be able to market your home in
a traditional fashion, get it sold quickly, and get you
top dollar. If that's not what you want and you
accept that, you know what convenience matters more than getting
the most amount of money and time, then the cash
offer is right for you. But a lot of people
get it wrong. They're like, oh, I want a cash offer, Well,
(24:38):
what's the houseworth? Well, I think it's worth two hundred.
What do you want? I want two hundred. That's not
going to work, like from a from an investor's perspective, Now,
could there be a cash buyer on the retail market
that would pay your price. Possibly somebody that wants to
buy it to move into it. Somebody wants to buy
it because they're you know, they've got cash and they're
focused only on that neighborhood. There are certainly times where
(25:01):
homes will sell for cash for retail price. But if
you're wanting to avoid the process of going on the market,
avoid all the hoops that you have to jump through.
There has to be some opportunity for the investor to
earn an income, or they simply say, you know, we'll
just keep looking for ones that we can. So it's
(25:21):
not right for everyone. We sit down and do give
you your options, though, we'll say, hey, look, here's what
it looks like in a traditional setting, here's what looks
like in a cash offer setting in and give you
your choice. And so if that's something you're should in
again dunk and do a dot com request your you know,
cash offer, and would love the opportunity to talk to
you about that again. To reiterate, I want to kind
(25:43):
of explain a few things that we will do that
a lot of the funds will not do. Okay. Number one,
we will work with you on post occupancy or really
fast closings. Okay, that's something we can accomplish that a
lot of people cannot. We will. We'll buy homes without
inspections again, you know, depending on you know, where the
(26:06):
numbers lie. We will you know, close quickly or close
as long as you want. We can't get creative. We
can buy homes that have tenants in them. You know,
let's say there's the tenant in the house and you've
inherited it and you just don't want to deal with
the hassle of evicting them. We'll buy it with the
tenants in it, and we'll work on evicting them. So
if those are things you're interested in, again, Dunk can
(26:26):
do it dot com request your cash offer. I want
to talk next about the real estate stats in Tampa
Bay and this is you know data, you know that
kind of leads a lot of people why they want
to cash offer, why they're concerned about the market. So
the July stats just came out. They come out typically
about the middle of the month. Following for Star and
(26:47):
Star is the Sun Coast Tampa Association Realtors, which is,
you know, kind of the combineding, combining of all of
our counties. And the average cell price in Tampa is
four hundred and seventy two thousand and ten. To put
it into perspective, last month, the average cell price was
four hundred and eighty seven thou more than three percent
(27:08):
drop in the average cell price. Now, a lot of
years there is a June to July drop in the
average cell price. That's not that uncommon, it's relatively normal.
This is a little bit larger than normal because July
starts the end of the peak season. You know, people
are getting back in school and all that, a lot
(27:30):
of people want to move before that, So our peak
prices are typically seen in in June, May and June. Okay,
that that is when we typically see them. So price
is four seventy two last July four eighty, so again
off a couple percentage points from last year. When you
add inflation involved in that, we are definitely seeing depreciation
(27:52):
in our average price points. Now there are some neighborhoods
doing better than others. They're flooded homes pulling that down,
of course, But the further we get away from Milton
and Helene and don't have more hurricane impact, the less
impact they have on prices. So we're still seeing depreciation
in Tampa Bay. You know, like I said, a couple
percentage points from July July two years ago, so July
(28:17):
twenty three or seventy eight, eight forty, so we're also
off from then. So if you factor in a couple
percentage points off in price over the last couple of
years and inflation, back in July of twenty twenty two,
we were four seventy eight, so today again lower than that.
So we've seen depreciation plus inflation of a few percentage points,
(28:40):
plus higher rates. So again our market has some has
some pressures that are causing prices to soften and is
making it a great buying opportunity. We had four three
hundred and forty four sales in July. Compare that to
four nine hundred and seventeen last year, so about a
twelve percent about a twelve percent dip, and then four thousand,
(29:02):
seven hundred and sixty two and twenty three, four thousand,
seven hundred and twenty nine and twenty two, we were
we were in the six thousand range back in twenty one.
That was you know, peak kind of you know, peak
bidding war season. You know that, you know. So since
the last three years, we've seen, you know, annually we
(29:23):
continue to see fewer home sales, so fewer home sales,
lower prices, great buying opportunity. That's why I think we're
building up to twenty six and twenty seven being really
healthy real estate markets. But when I talk about these statistics,
I want you to understand when I hear people saying, oh,
the real estate market is crashing it's not really crashings.
It's trending down, but like kind of just a little
bit like when it was crashing back. You know, during
(29:46):
the Great Recession, I sold real estate. Then we were
seeing prices drop, average prices going from like two twenty
to one eighty in a month. Okay, this is like slight,
This is relatively negligible, but when factored in with inflation,
it is a considerable impact on affordability. So we are
seeing fewer home sales, we are seeing lower prices. The
(30:08):
average home was taken about seventy days to sell, and
we have four point nine months of inventory. A relatively
balanced market. If you were to look at these statistics
historically and weed out the great run up of COVID, Okay,
when when everything was record breaking, interest rates were so cheap,
we were seeing seven thousand home sales in the marketplace.
(30:29):
Prices were rising like crazy. If you weed that little
period out, our market's pretty Our market's pretty normal. The
problem is that it gets compared to the most recent
period of time, when we had these sensational one hundred
and one hundred and two one hundred and three percent
to list sell price ratios. Everything's selling for a bidding
war in days and less than a month of inventory. Okay,
(30:51):
So of course when you compare to that, our market
doesn't look as healthy. But if you if I look
historically over my twenty year real estate career, our real
estate market right now relatively balanced. It's not some crazy
buyer's market that a lot of people would have you believe.
It was a crazy buyer's market. In a great recession,
we were seeing eighteen plus months of inventory, foreclosures everywhere.
(31:12):
We're seeing a one off foreclosure here and there. Okay,
we've certainly seen an increase in inventory, but it's been
relatively stable. We went from like I said, in twenty one,
we were less than a month and went to two.
It's gone to three, it's gone to four, it's going
to five. It hit a high of six months of
inventory at the end of last year, but it's been
around four and a half to five most of this year.
That's a balance real estate market. So is it in
(31:33):
favor of the buyer, yes, But ninety seven percent list
to sell price ratio. You know, again, I was back
working in the market when we were seeing ninety one. Okay,
we're seeing stuff massively off of asking price, just not
the place where in today it's a stable real estate market.
Do I think there's a lot of upside coming? Yes?
Do I think a lot of the last year of
our market not being as healthy as it could is
(31:55):
related to Hilton and malin or you know, yeah, Hilton
and Malie. I can't even say it's Helene and Milton, man,
I'm so traumatized. So Helene and Milton have certainly had
a major impact on our statistics for the last year.
I think these stats would look a lot better if
it weren't for the hangover from the hurricanes. I think
we'd probably be in a similar place with price. But
(32:19):
that has drug the prices down as drug people moving,
is drug it down? You know, population growth, all those
things probably have just as much of an impact as
the overall economic conditions and high rates. So those are
the stats for this month. That's kind of my take
on it. I believe that we are headed towards a
you know, a real estate market that we'll see improvements
in sales, but it's probably more like twenty six and
(32:41):
twenty seven. We may see a little uptick in the
end of this year if we get some fed rate
cuts but I think twenty six and twenty seven, potentially
property tax relief could really drive our real estate market
back in an upward direction. Inflation gets under control, rates
get softened, and you know, we can be seeing a
completely different tune in twenty six and twenty seven. Back
to wrap up our last segment after a quick break
(33:02):
here on the Duncan Duo Show. So we're back here
on the Duncan Duo Show talking about the Tampa Bay
real estate market. Andrew Duncan with the Duncan Duo team,
and I want to talk next to home sellers out there,
and this is a real common mistake that I've seen
a lot of home sellers make regarding their next steps.
And this is what I mean, home seller, And we
(33:26):
just had this recently happen a couple times, So I
want to kind of get ahead of it and advise
the audience, even if you're not working with me. This
is the advice I have for you. Home seller says,
I want to buy another home, but I know I
need to sell mine first. Let me put my house
on the market. Well, when they say they know they
need to sell their home first, sometimes they don't really
know if they need to it's just their own financial
(33:48):
choices to not have two of them. But they put
their house on the market, we go out, we find
a buyer for it, we go under contract. Then they
go out and they start looking at houses. They get
they start with a mortgage lender and they decide what
they're going to buy, and then they realize a couple
of things. One, either they can't qualify for as much
(34:08):
as they thought because maybe their equity isn't as much
as it was a few years ago. Or two, they
can't qualify at all. Now they've got somebody buying their
house and they're about to be homeless. So, if you're
a home seller right now, a lot of lenders make
this mistake. A lot of a lot of clients don't
take this step. If you're a home seller and your
(34:29):
homes on the market right now, I want you to
call Melissa Rodriguez her phone number. She is with Citywide
Home Mortgage, one of our preferred eight one three seven
three five nine three nine five again eight one three seven,
three five nine three nine five. What she'll do is
basically help you understand your buying position, but also ensure
(34:52):
that anything that you need to do on your credit
or anything that you need to document, you can do
ahead of time. When you do this backwards, you put
your house on a market, you get it on the contract,
you go out to look, and then you prequalify. A
lot of times you're you're you're behind the eight ball.
You can't get what's done needed. It is more complex
to qualify for a mortgage today. And Melissa, Melissa is
(35:13):
going to start coming on the show with me, and
I want you to understand that she's a guru with
this stuff. Okay, So if you need to qualify while
you're selling to buy, you should not wait until you
go out to start looking at homes to buy. You
should work on that qualification now before your home even
goes on the market. And if it's on the market
(35:33):
and you haven't done it, you should do it now.
If you bought a home in the past and you thought, oh,
it's really easy, I got great credit, I got great income,
it might have been really easy then, Okay, but things
are tighter today. Interest rates are higher, underwriting standards are tighter.
It's it's harder to qualify. Don't let your ego that
you think it's a no brainer and it's easy and
(35:54):
you'll qualify get in the way of your the right choices. Okay,
you might think that you're a slam dunk qualification and
then realize there's something you have to do to position
yourself in the timeframe from when your house sells to
when you find the next one. So again, call Melissa
eight one three seven three five nine three ninety five.
(36:15):
Let her know you heard me talk about it on WFLA.
You can call, you can text her as well. If
your home is on the market, you should not wait
to qualify. If you're selling to buy and it doesn't
look it doesn't matter. Even if you're buying a home
in another part of the country. Molists can help. Let's
say you're selling here and you're buying somewhere else and
you haven't talked to a mortgage lender yet. You should
(36:36):
not wait until your home goes under contract to talk
to a mortgage person. Okay, you should talk to them.
You should one hundred percent talk to them now and
get qualified now so that you don't find out like
I had happened twice in the last couple of weeks,
customers just thought, oh, it's a slam dunk. It's easy
to qualify for a mortgage. Dad have done this so
many times. But the last time they did it, and
(36:57):
all the times before that, was during the Sunshine Unicorn, Fairytale,
fantasy landmarket when everybody could get a mortgage. Okay, it
is not that way today. It is more complicated. You
have to document more things. I've seen deals fall apart
because sellers wait when they're buying somewhere else, whether you're
buying in Tampa Bay or you're buying, you know, in
another part of the country. This is a step that
(37:18):
you need to take and Melissa again can help with that.
You can call her Texter Melissa Rodriguez eight one three
seven three five nine to three nine five with city
Wide Hole Mortgage. She's going to come on the show
and be our our our regular mortgage expert. Pretty much
has all programs available, whether you're a VA FHA, hometown heroes,
(37:39):
regular conventional loan, doctor loans, business owner loans, no, I
mean you you know, no doc loans. When she did
a loan last year for a customer of ours that
you know, really had great credit and assets, and I
think they basically took in an app and it was
like a slam dunk without any documentation, So there are
even simple ways to do it. She's got a variety
(38:02):
of programs and she's going to start coming on the
show soon. And excited to partner with her and have
her on. I think she'll add an extra element to
bring in the knowledge on the mortgage stuff. But I'm
just seeing a lot of home sellers make this mistake.
And we've had we had two deals fall apart in
the last few weeks because the seller thought that their
qualification would be a slam duck and they'd be able
to qualify for what they want, and found out they
(38:23):
couldn't quite qualify for as much as they wanted, and
then they didn't want to sell their house anymore, you know.
So get the intel now, no ahead of time. Find
out what you can do on the mortgage side. On
the other side, and look, don't trust some online calculator.
I'm telling you right now, there's so much fraud out there.
They bump up your costs. There's just a lot of
(38:45):
use somebody local again, Melissa will help you with it.
Eight one, three, seven, three, five, nine five. Avoid the
mistake of waiting to get a mortgage qualification until after
your home has you know has sold, and then you're
out looking at homes and you find this stuff out
after you're already under contract. You know how hard it
(39:06):
is to get out of a sale contract. Wants to seller,
wants to buyer and seller having a greed contract really challenging, okay,
and it can be really expensive and unfortunately you might
even lose and have to give up your house to
the buyer if the buyer doesn't default or want to
let you out. So don't make that mistake. It's a
common one. I'm seeing it far too often right now
because of people that are used to, you know, things
(39:29):
being easier than they are today. So hopefully it's been
helpful all this advice when we aren't on here at
the dunkin Duo, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, always share
in relevant real estate information and knowledge. If you want
an instant cash off, or hit us up at duncinduo
dot com, or just get your home value estimate if
you just want to know what your home is worth
you want to sell at some point down the line, again,
(39:51):
you can do that at duncan duo dot com. Have
an awesome rest of your weekend. Tampa Bay and thanks
for tuning in
I'm me Sunday, Tampa Bay. We're with you for another
(00:02):
week here on the Duncan Duo Real Estate Show, like
we are every Sunday at ten talking about the Tampa
Bay real estate market. Andrew Duncan with the Duncan Duo
team at LPT Realty. I'm excited to be headed to
the Ocean Side mastermind with LPT Realty. I'm going to
spend some time with some of my LPT family for
(00:23):
three days this coming week and talk about team growth
within LPT. And that is one of the things I
love about LPT Realty, utilizing the top teams and agents
within the brand to constantly teach, help and educate other
growing agents. So excited to be there next week talking
(00:43):
about that and letting other agents with an LPT know
the things that I've done over the years to help
grow my business. When we aren't on air, make sure
to foll us on all of our socials at the
Duncan Duo, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok and Facebook. In at
the Duncan Duo pretty much every social channel. Why are
(01:04):
we putting out content on YouTube, Instagram, Facebook about what's
going on in real estate? Real estate tips? For home
buyers and sellers, as well as a lot of tips
for real estate agents. So if you're a real estate
agent and you're looking for education, we're putting that out
there as well. And if your real estate agents struggling
where you are. I think a lot of real estate
agents right now are looking for something extra or people
(01:27):
that are getting into the business. And I want to
explain that what I think is the number one mistake
most real estate agents go miss make when they get
into the business. You know, if you look at you know,
when I own other businesses. You know, through the years,
I've added extra kind of businesses that are extensions of
(01:48):
my real estate brand. And I see things operate a
lot differently in other industries. But the failure rate for
real estate agents is massively high. It's massively high because
I think that real estate agents, you know, sometimes think
that it's easy, or they see a friend doing well
and don't they don't see what the friend did to
(02:09):
get to where they are, driving like a cool car
or living in a nice house. They just see the
cool car in a nice house and they think that
it's easy. But we have one of the highest failure
rates of any industry. On Earth, and I think that
a lot of real estate agents make the mistake of
shopping on price. Okay, and you know, I've always said,
(02:30):
cheap work ain't good, and good work ain't cheap. When
you shop a real estate brokerage and you look for
the cheapest one, you're going to get what you pay
for as a brand new agent. Way too many make
that mistake, and then they're out within a few years.
They're out within a few years because mentorship, leads, coaching, marketing, advice,
all of those things aren't free. Brokers just have to
(02:53):
provide those and when they're not providing a lot of
those things for an agent, the agents go out and
fail at a massively high rate, and then they're out
of the business within six months. Most real estate agents
that get their license are out of the business within
a year. So if you're one of those agents thinking
about getting in, my advice to you, whether that's you
joining my team or another team, is to look to
(03:14):
join a team environment, go somewhere where you are going
to get support, where you're going to get leads, where
you're going to get help and assistance. Obviously, we're always
hiring Jointhduo dot com we have a direct mentor assigned
to you. We have a massive lead generation and marketing plan,
accountability coaching on deals, and our agents succeed at a
(03:37):
higher level than the norms in the marketplace because there's
a structure. If you don't want a structure, Basically, what
you're saying is you don't really want to work hard.
If you don't have structure. As a new agent, you're
going to try and do all the things. You're going
to try and become a great marketer, a great negotiator,
a great shower of homes, a great finder of real estate,
(03:58):
great at the contracts. You can't quickly be great at
all of those things. If you do, you are going
to fail. And that's what most real estate agents do.
They go to the place and say, hey, we're going
to give you one hundred percent of the commission. Give
you one hundred percent of the commission. You're going to
go there and then you're going to have you're going
to be just a number because that's a mill. They
just want you to pay your you know, your dues
(04:22):
get paid whenever you do a deal. And there will
be a certain number percentage of people that figure it
out and then That's how they win is the people
that figure it out pay for all the people that
aren't figuring it out. But a massive number of them
don't figure it out. If you go somewhere where there
is the structure, where there's a compensation model that rewards
the company or the team or the brokerage enough to
(04:44):
be able to provide you all of these things, you can.
You don't have to become an expert at marketing or contracts.
You can, bit by bit just great, get great at
one thing at a time because the team takes those
things off of your plate that you're not going to
get good at fast enough or great at fast enough
in order to be able to make an income to
support your family. So massively high failure rates in real estate.
(05:05):
You know, again, you probably know somebody personally if you're
listening to this that's failed in real estate. And again,
most of the time it is they don't have enough
coaching and they don't have enough leads. Every If you're
going somewhere that's promising you that, oh, you've just got
to call your friends and family and your sphere of influence.
(05:26):
If you know a lot of people, all those people
you know, they know twenty seven other realtors, okay, and
those realtors have been in the business a while and
sold homes and have success, and they've built trust with
that person. For you to win them over, you're going
to have to perform. And you're not going to be
able to perform on your friends and family because they're
not going to trust you enough yet they already know
realtors they trust. So if you're wanting something where you
(05:48):
can plug into an existing egosphere where there's a CRM
and a system and a lead generation platform, coaching, accountability
and a massive lead spend, hit us up into duo
dot com again, that is, join the duo dot com.
We're always looking to add agents. LPT Realty is a
great place as well. But if you're new, that's what
(06:11):
you need. If you're existing and you're struggling again, sometimes
you know, to jump start your career, you need a
new opportunity, you need a new place, you need to
go deeper. But I'm a firm believer in the real
estate brokerage business that you do get what you pay for.
If you're going to the place that looks like you're
going to get the majority of the commission on every deal.
You're assuming you're going to be able to create deals,
(06:33):
and most of you, with that assumption will fail. And
that's just math. Okay, it's not a personal attack. It's
the statistics. The math show us that most real estate
agents that get into the business fail within the first year,
and the five year fail rate failure rate is massively
high as well. So, having done this for twenty years,
I know how to coach an agent from zero to hero.
(06:55):
We've done it countless times. There are a ton of
real estate agents running their own owned businesses now that
started with me, that have built their own teams, you know.
So if that's something you aspire to, why not learn
it from somebody that's already done it. You trying to
recreate that on your own somewhere just isn't great. And
I see recruiters from real estate companies all the time saying, oh,
(07:15):
we're going to be able to do this and we
can do that. It's rampant in our industry that the
people out there recruiting have never done what they say
that they're going to help you do in their company. Right,
So go where it's proven you're going to get the
support to help the coaching that you need again, that
is Jointhduo dot com. And we are always looking for
people that want to work. Key for us is that
(07:38):
we don't want the agents they're just going to part time,
hang a license, do a deal here and there. We
want people to plug in full time. Real estate isn't
a part time opportunity. If you're going to be successful
at it, you need to plug in and spend the time.
You need to have a little bit of backlog of
money if you don't have that, and I coach every
single person that I can, like, reduce your expenses, you know,
(08:01):
make sure that you can handle not getting paid for
a little while. These are all things that matter because
a lot of people get in and then after a
month they don't have a check, and then they get
commission breath. And I'm sure every person out there has
dealt with the salesperson with commission breath, whether it's going
to Nordstrom, or whether it's going to buy a car,
(08:23):
whether it's somebody catching you on the phone that wants
to sell you a home warranty or a car warranty,
whatever it is. If you if you don't get into
the real estate business with a little bit of pad
and and you know a little bit of money or
cut your expenses down to where you can kind of
grind through that period of time it's going to take
you to learn. You're gonna run off a lot of
(08:44):
clients and you're probably not gonna succeed because you're gonna
have too much pressure to earn the right People that
get into the business make a plan ahead of time.
They've got a nest egg, they've they've made the right choices,
they've reduced some expense, and they're willing to get through
that period of time that'll take for them to be successful.
And I've said this, I put this out on a
(09:04):
video recently that I think now is one of the
best opportunities ever to get into real estate if you're
doing it for the right reasons and you're doing it
to build a long term career. Okay, and here's why.
Similar to when I got in during the Great Recession, Okay,
if you get in now, you're going to be forced
to have to work really hard because it's not easy.
(09:25):
The transactions are harder to close, it's harder to find buyers,
it's harder to get home sold. Interest rates are higher, affordability.
All of these reasons are why it's a deterrent for
a lot of people to get into real estate. But
if you get into real estate now and you do
the work, and you go somewhere that will force you
to work and be accountable to standards and processes. If
(09:50):
you do that, you will establish the habits so that eventually,
when the economy turns in a better direction, it'll sprinkle
some magic on all that effort and work ethic that
you've built grinding it out during a time when it's
really tough for real estate. If you get in now
and you grind it out and you're successful when the
market turns, you will have the opportunity to earn more
(10:11):
than you ever thought in your life, build your own business,
all of these things. A lot of people get in
when the market's hot because it's easy, okay, and it's
a you know, get rich quick scheme. They're going to
make a bunch of money, and then before long they're
out when the market turns. If you get in when
the market's down, you're going to have the right in
you succeed, okay. You will have a wonderful long term
(10:34):
career because you'll build the habits, the standards, and have
the accountability that when the economy improves, your business and
your income will skyrocket, and you will benefit greatly from
the choices that you make. If you get in when
it's easy, the market will chew you up and spit
you out when it turns the other direction. And that's
what we're seeing right now. We're seeing a lot of
(10:56):
realistic agents getting out of the business, or they're keeping
their license, but they're doing their stuff. They're getting a
side gig, they're driving for uber lyft or bartending, whatever
it is. They're doing that to make ends meet because
they never really they got in when it was hot,
and they never really established the right disciplines or habits
because the money was flowing and it was easy to
sell home. Any any couple a few years ago, anyone
(11:16):
with a pulse could have sold a home. Everything was selling.
Interest rates were two and three percent. Who wouldn't buy
more real estate when it's six and seven percent. It's
a grind and it's hard, and if you can be
successful at it now, you will have a very long
and prosperous real estate career, you know, for the long term.
So if you want to build that. Now is a
(11:38):
great time for it. But you have to go somewhere
to learn. You have to be learning based, you have
to go somewhere that's going to get you leads, and
we offer that. So again Jointduo dot Com. We're not
the only real estate team. We believe we're the best.
I'm biased just because the track record and the ability
to navigate agents through multiple markets and help them grow
their business as I've grown mind. So hopefully we'll have
(12:00):
the opportunity to do that with you again. That is
Join the Duo dot Com and I'm back continue this
conversation after a quick break here on the Duncan Duo Show.
So we're back here on the Duncan Duo Show talking
about the Tampa Bay real estate market. Andrew Duncan with
the Duncan Duo LPT Realty. You spent the first segment
really talking to the realtors out there not accomplishing what
they want or new. We're people thinking about getting into
(12:21):
the business and encouraging Go to our website, read share
for our career night, or apply for one of our
open positions at Joined the Duo dot com. We are
looking to grow. I've actually put the pedal to the
metal on our marketing spend this year. I've spent more
on marketing this year, you know, than genuine generally my
company can afford, simply because I'm ramping up to grow.
I want to provide opportunities for more agents. And I
(12:44):
know that twenty six and twenty seven have the opportunity
to be incredible real estate markets with things heading in
the direction that they're heading. So I hope that's you
joined the duo dot com. I had Grant holcome from
my commercial division on last week and we had a
really great conversation about the differences between residential and commercial.
And I joked because as a commercial real estate buyer,
(13:08):
you know, and I don't work with the customers as
much unless it's automotive, which is usually more of a
passion of mind because I have a lot of friends
in that space. But I talked to Grant and one
of the things that I find, uh, really frustrating about
commercial real estate is that the real estate agents that
work in commercial don't call you back like it it's
(13:30):
it's nearly impossible to get a hold of people. And
so I want to give out Grant's number. I gave
it out last week eight one three, six oh five
one two one nine again eight one three, six oh
five one two one nine. Or Grant at the Duncan
Duo dot com. Grant Holcombe Grant at the Duncan Duo
dot com. Eight one three, six oh five, one two
(13:50):
one nine. Grant will answer his phone. Grant will respond
to your text messages. Grant will help you. He has
a really broad base of commercial experience, having help people sell,
you know, land for development, churches, industrial retail buying, selling lease,
his multifamily. He's really done a lot of different commercial things.
(14:12):
If you have something really, really really specific, he can
certainly help hone that in. He's got some relationships with
commercial brokerages. But the thing that I think that's great
about Grant is Monday through Sunday, the guy answers his
phone and he responds to his text messages. I can't
tell you how many times I've wanted to get in
and look at a commercial property as a buyer or
get some information, and it's like pulling teeth. I don't
(14:33):
know what commercial agents do all day to not be
able to ever respond to phone calls. But that's the
struggle that I've had I've had I've dealt with multiple
commercial real estate agents and it's it's like a it's
like a broken record, not getting a phone call back
or not getting a text or an email when I
want information or have questions. So if you want to
not have that experience, again, hit up Grant eight one
(14:54):
three six oh five one two one nine again eight
one three, six oh five one two one nine or
Grant at the Duncan Duo dot com. I actually think
the commercial real estate is primed for a nice upswing it. Really,
commercial real estate is really tied to interest rates. There
there's a lot of discussion about FED rate changes, and
(15:16):
again the FED rate is not a one hundred percent
indicator of what happens to mortgage rates. The FED rate
can drop and mortgage rates can still say hi. But
with commercial I believe that there are a lot of
because money is expensive right now, there are a lot
of people putting their money into other investments. And I've
started to see more and more people reach out to
(15:37):
Grant because they know what's coming. They know if there
is a movement of interest rates in twenty twenty, you know,
late twenty five, which that's out there twenty six and
twenty seven, and we get back down to a lower
rate environment that the commercial real estate market will do
exactly what it did the last time and spike on price.
So smart people right now are saying, hey, now is
(15:59):
the time for me to jump out there and start
looking at commercial because I might have to pay a
little bit more on my rate, or I buy it
cash and then do a refi when the rates are lower,
but I can get a better deal right now. And
that's completely accurate. Grant has negotiated some incredible deals recently
for clients. If you were looking at real estate in
the commercial segment for the long term, you want to
(16:20):
get in now before the rate drops and then prices rise,
and it's more competitive when more people jump in, more
hedge funds start buying, there's more competition. Some of my
friends that there are some of the smartest, wealthiest commercial
real estate people I know are jumping in and looking
for more opportunity right now because they know what's coming.
They've been in the business long enough they can see
(16:40):
what's happening. And if that is you again, Grant can
help eight one, three, six oh five, twelve, nineteen or
Grant at the Duncan duo, dot com and commercial has
been beat up. You know, it has. It's you know,
if you look at commercial real estate values specifically across
Tampa Bay, they've been depressed, they've they've dropped. So as
(17:03):
a buyer right now, especially again when buying for the
long term, you have a great opportunity to negotiate and
get great deals when the market is flowing and rates
are low and prices arising. You know, it's also the
seller's advantage. Everything right now in the commercial space is
to the buyer's advantage in almost every segment. There are
some segments of the marketplace that are that are you know,
(17:25):
where sellers still kind of drive the drive the bargain.
Waterfront stuff, development stuff, downtown. There are still Davis Island,
for example. There's still some hot pockets. But for the
most part, the buyers are in control right now and
they have a great opportunity to lock in equity for
the long term, and they have great negotiation you know,
(17:46):
great negotiation leverage that they have to have for a
long time. And I believe that will swing back the
other direction and a lot of people will look back
on this time and say, you know, man, I should
have bought more real estate. It's funny, you know, having
been in this business for such a long time, I
remember two periods of time when I said I should
have bought more real estate. The first one was the
(18:07):
period of time during the Great Recession, short sales, foreclosures.
You know, you had a year or two of prices
just dropping and they got so cheap that I should
have just and again I did buy a lot. I
should have bought even I should have found ways to
buy more. The second time that I felt like was
and again I did it here too. The time to
buy more real estate was when interest rates got so
(18:30):
crazy low. You know very quickly that you knew prices
had to rise. That was an incredible buying opportunity. And
now I think we see that same thing again. The
difference back then was your payment. You know, your your
payment would be lower, That was really the value, but
you knew prices were going to upswing. Well, now if
(18:50):
we can predict that rates are going to drop, we
eventually know that when rates drop, prices are going to
ahead in the other direction. And every single data point
points to twenty six twenty seven having lower interest rates, again,
a lot could change. But if we know that that's
coming now, it's such a great time to buy. It
really is. So again Granted The Duncan Duo dot Com
(19:12):
eight one three six oh five one two one nine
to get Grant's help with commercial buy, sell or lease
opportunities and the other thing I love about Grant because
I feel like I don't get this with most commercial agents.
He's got a great personality. He's funny. Guy's really funny,
like he could probably do stand up comedy. And most
of the commercial agents I've dealt with are like dry,
(19:33):
very analytical, and Grant has that, but he's also funny.
So if you want an enjoyable experience, buyer Selle Commercial
again eight one three six five twelve nineteen. I'd be
back continue this conversation after quick break here on the
Duncan Duo Show. So we're back here on the Duncan
Duo Show talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market.
Andrew Duncan the Duncan Duo Team LPT Realty. So I
(19:53):
bought a few homes this week, and I want to
remind listeners that, look, you have a lot of options
when selling real estate today. There are hedge funds, that
buy houses. There's the retail market where you're likely to
get more money. And then of course there's local investors
of which I am one and have my own fund
to buy investment opportunities. So if you have investment opportunities,
(20:16):
and look if you're an agent or a wholesaler, your
opportunity probably isn't something I'm interested in. The fees associated
all of those types of things to control my title
company not being involved. All of those things are reasons
why I have a pretty simple buy box where we
want to buy direct from consumer and we want to
buy homes that we're going to renovate and resell. So
(20:38):
if you own real estate, maybe it failed on the market,
maybe you didn't get it sold, Maybe you inherited some
real estate. Maybe it needs a lot of work, maybe
there was an insurance claim. All of those things are
reasons why we would look at buying real estate. So
I am a buyer of homes. So if you are
interested in a cash offer, a quick, clean cash from
(21:01):
a local investor that has been doing this for a
really long time, has a great track record. I think
my reputation speaks for itself. We buy a lot of
real estate and We have a lot of a lot
of raving fans duncanduo dot com. You can go there,
you can request a cash offer. Our team will reach
out talk you through the different steps, and then one
of my partners will come out and take a look
at the property. But we're regularly competing with some of
(21:23):
the hedge funds, and I think some of the things
that we offer that a lot of the hedge funds don't.
Will get creative with closing dates, we can close really fast.
We can also do post occupancy. We can buy stuff
that's got permit issues. We can buy stuff that's got
tenants in it still that you want us to take
care of. We can buy stuff that needs massive renovations.
I'm not a huge fan of buying flood homes because
(21:47):
the femous stuff is a huge pain in that you
know what. But if it's you know, if you're selling
it from a vacant land value perspective, I would probably
look at it. But we're really looking for, you know,
older homes to for maintenance motivated people that just want
to move and just want money quick as quick as
a week. So if that's something you're interested in, again,
(22:07):
Dunkin Duo dot Com request your cash offer, and we'd
love to have one of my acquisitions associates come out
take a look and decide what we can do. But
speaking of cash offers, I want to kind of explain
this from a perspective of the consumer, so you guys
see this, the cash offer is is not the right
(22:29):
call for a lot of people. If your goal is
to get the most amount of money out of the property,
the cash offer probably isn't the right solution for you
because the person that's buying the home. In my case,
you know my fund, we're going to have to renovate
it and resell it. We're not wanting to. We're not
a nonprofit. Okay, I give a lot to a nonprofit.
I have my own foundation, But our entity that buys
(22:52):
and resells property wants to buy it so that we
can renovate it and then sell it and earn an income. Now,
if you want acts value out of the house, there
really isn't typically a lot of opportunity for renovation, okay,
or for that for profit. It's kind of like going
to a car dealership. You know, if you've got a
twenty five thousand dollars car, car dealership. Let's say they'll
(23:14):
give you, you know, seventy or eighty percent, sometimes a little
higher depending on the demand. They're going to give you
a lower price than what you could probably sell or
on your own on the retail market. And that's simply
because they're going to turn around and now sell your
car for retail. So there's got to be enough of
a spread for it to make financial sense for us.
We know we can park money in a mutual fund
(23:35):
and make a pretty much guaranteed over over you know,
fifteen years. I've got funds that have guaranted that have
made me, you know, ten plus percent every single year.
So it's got to be a good enough return for
it to make sense for us. And I think that's
the case for any investor. If you're someone that is
focused on getting the most amount of money, though the
cash offer probably isn't right for you. Convenience is really
(23:55):
the key, the quickness. The expedients think you've got something
and you don't want to spend thirty to sixty days
selling it, but you you know, you can sell it
to someone will who will take it for the thirty
sixty days and take the risk and deal with it.
Like trading in a car or you know, taking something
to a pawnshop for example. Those are kind of examples.
(24:16):
So again, the retail market is typically right for most clients.
We're going to be able to market your home in
a traditional fashion, get it sold quickly, and get you
top dollar. If that's not what you want and you
accept that, you know what convenience matters more than getting
the most amount of money and time, then the cash
offer is right for you. But a lot of people
get it wrong. They're like, oh, I want a cash offer, Well,
(24:38):
what's the houseworth? Well, I think it's worth two hundred.
What do you want? I want two hundred. That's not
going to work, like from a from an investor's perspective, Now,
could there be a cash buyer on the retail market
that would pay your price. Possibly somebody that wants to
buy it to move into it. Somebody wants to buy
it because they're you know, they've got cash and they're
focused only on that neighborhood. There are certainly times where
(25:01):
homes will sell for cash for retail price. But if
you're wanting to avoid the process of going on the market,
avoid all the hoops that you have to jump through.
There has to be some opportunity for the investor to
earn an income, or they simply say, you know, we'll
just keep looking for ones that we can. So it's
(25:21):
not right for everyone. We sit down and do give
you your options, though, we'll say, hey, look, here's what
it looks like in a traditional setting, here's what looks
like in a cash offer setting in and give you
your choice. And so if that's something you're should in
again dunk and do a dot com request your you know,
cash offer, and would love the opportunity to talk to
you about that again. To reiterate, I want to kind
(25:43):
of explain a few things that we will do that
a lot of the funds will not do. Okay. Number one,
we will work with you on post occupancy or really
fast closings. Okay, that's something we can accomplish that a
lot of people cannot. We will. We'll buy homes without
inspections again, you know, depending on you know, where the
(26:06):
numbers lie. We will you know, close quickly or close
as long as you want. We can't get creative. We
can buy homes that have tenants in them. You know,
let's say there's the tenant in the house and you've
inherited it and you just don't want to deal with
the hassle of evicting them. We'll buy it with the
tenants in it, and we'll work on evicting them. So
if those are things you're interested in, again, Dunk can
(26:26):
do it dot com request your cash offer. I want
to talk next about the real estate stats in Tampa
Bay and this is you know data, you know that
kind of leads a lot of people why they want
to cash offer, why they're concerned about the market. So
the July stats just came out. They come out typically
about the middle of the month. Following for Star and
(26:47):
Star is the Sun Coast Tampa Association Realtors, which is,
you know, kind of the combineding, combining of all of
our counties. And the average cell price in Tampa is
four hundred and seventy two thousand and ten. To put
it into perspective, last month, the average cell price was
four hundred and eighty seven thou more than three percent
(27:08):
drop in the average cell price. Now, a lot of
years there is a June to July drop in the
average cell price. That's not that uncommon, it's relatively normal.
This is a little bit larger than normal because July
starts the end of the peak season. You know, people
are getting back in school and all that, a lot
(27:30):
of people want to move before that, So our peak
prices are typically seen in in June, May and June. Okay,
that that is when we typically see them. So price
is four seventy two last July four eighty, so again
off a couple percentage points from last year. When you
add inflation involved in that, we are definitely seeing depreciation
(27:52):
in our average price points. Now there are some neighborhoods
doing better than others. They're flooded homes pulling that down,
of course, But the further we get away from Milton
and Helene and don't have more hurricane impact, the less
impact they have on prices. So we're still seeing depreciation
in Tampa Bay. You know, like I said, a couple
percentage points from July July two years ago, so July
(28:17):
twenty three or seventy eight, eight forty, so we're also
off from then. So if you factor in a couple
percentage points off in price over the last couple of
years and inflation, back in July of twenty twenty two,
we were four seventy eight, so today again lower than that.
So we've seen depreciation plus inflation of a few percentage points,
(28:40):
plus higher rates. So again our market has some has
some pressures that are causing prices to soften and is
making it a great buying opportunity. We had four three
hundred and forty four sales in July. Compare that to
four nine hundred and seventeen last year, so about a
twelve percent about a twelve percent dip, and then four thousand,
(29:02):
seven hundred and sixty two and twenty three, four thousand,
seven hundred and twenty nine and twenty two, we were
we were in the six thousand range back in twenty one.
That was you know, peak kind of you know, peak
bidding war season. You know that, you know. So since
the last three years, we've seen, you know, annually we
(29:23):
continue to see fewer home sales, so fewer home sales,
lower prices, great buying opportunity. That's why I think we're
building up to twenty six and twenty seven being really
healthy real estate markets. But when I talk about these statistics,
I want you to understand when I hear people saying, oh,
the real estate market is crashing it's not really crashings.
It's trending down, but like kind of just a little
bit like when it was crashing back. You know, during
(29:46):
the Great Recession, I sold real estate. Then we were
seeing prices drop, average prices going from like two twenty
to one eighty in a month. Okay, this is like slight,
This is relatively negligible, but when factored in with inflation,
it is a considerable impact on affordability. So we are
seeing fewer home sales, we are seeing lower prices. The
(30:08):
average home was taken about seventy days to sell, and
we have four point nine months of inventory. A relatively
balanced market. If you were to look at these statistics
historically and weed out the great run up of COVID, Okay,
when when everything was record breaking, interest rates were so cheap,
we were seeing seven thousand home sales in the marketplace.
(30:29):
Prices were rising like crazy. If you weed that little
period out, our market's pretty Our market's pretty normal. The
problem is that it gets compared to the most recent
period of time, when we had these sensational one hundred
and one hundred and two one hundred and three percent
to list sell price ratios. Everything's selling for a bidding
war in days and less than a month of inventory. Okay,
(30:51):
So of course when you compare to that, our market
doesn't look as healthy. But if you if I look
historically over my twenty year real estate career, our real
estate market right now relatively balanced. It's not some crazy
buyer's market that a lot of people would have you believe.
It was a crazy buyer's market. In a great recession,
we were seeing eighteen plus months of inventory, foreclosures everywhere.
(31:12):
We're seeing a one off foreclosure here and there. Okay,
we've certainly seen an increase in inventory, but it's been
relatively stable. We went from like I said, in twenty one,
we were less than a month and went to two.
It's gone to three, it's gone to four, it's going
to five. It hit a high of six months of
inventory at the end of last year, but it's been
around four and a half to five most of this year.
That's a balance real estate market. So is it in
(31:33):
favor of the buyer, yes, But ninety seven percent list
to sell price ratio. You know, again, I was back
working in the market when we were seeing ninety one. Okay,
we're seeing stuff massively off of asking price, just not
the place where in today it's a stable real estate market.
Do I think there's a lot of upside coming? Yes?
Do I think a lot of the last year of
our market not being as healthy as it could is
(31:55):
related to Hilton and malin or you know, yeah, Hilton
and Malie. I can't even say it's Helene and Milton, man,
I'm so traumatized. So Helene and Milton have certainly had
a major impact on our statistics for the last year.
I think these stats would look a lot better if
it weren't for the hangover from the hurricanes. I think
we'd probably be in a similar place with price. But
(32:19):
that has drug the prices down as drug people moving,
is drug it down? You know, population growth, all those
things probably have just as much of an impact as
the overall economic conditions and high rates. So those are
the stats for this month. That's kind of my take
on it. I believe that we are headed towards a
you know, a real estate market that we'll see improvements
in sales, but it's probably more like twenty six and
(32:41):
twenty seven. We may see a little uptick in the
end of this year if we get some fed rate
cuts but I think twenty six and twenty seven, potentially
property tax relief could really drive our real estate market
back in an upward direction. Inflation gets under control, rates
get softened, and you know, we can be seeing a
completely different tune in twenty six and twenty seven. Back
to wrap up our last segment after a quick break
(33:02):
here on the Duncan Duo Show. So we're back here
on the Duncan Duo Show talking about the Tampa Bay
real estate market. Andrew Duncan with the Duncan Duo team,
and I want to talk next to home sellers out there,
and this is a real common mistake that I've seen
a lot of home sellers make regarding their next steps.
And this is what I mean, home seller, And we
(33:26):
just had this recently happen a couple times, So I
want to kind of get ahead of it and advise
the audience, even if you're not working with me. This
is the advice I have for you. Home seller says,
I want to buy another home, but I know I
need to sell mine first. Let me put my house
on the market. Well, when they say they know they
need to sell their home first, sometimes they don't really
know if they need to it's just their own financial
(33:48):
choices to not have two of them. But they put
their house on the market, we go out, we find
a buyer for it, we go under contract. Then they
go out and they start looking at houses. They get
they start with a mortgage lender and they decide what
they're going to buy, and then they realize a couple
of things. One, either they can't qualify for as much
(34:08):
as they thought because maybe their equity isn't as much
as it was a few years ago. Or two, they
can't qualify at all. Now they've got somebody buying their
house and they're about to be homeless. So, if you're
a home seller right now, a lot of lenders make
this mistake. A lot of a lot of clients don't
take this step. If you're a home seller and your
(34:29):
homes on the market right now, I want you to
call Melissa Rodriguez her phone number. She is with Citywide
Home Mortgage, one of our preferred eight one three seven
three five nine three nine five again eight one three seven,
three five nine three nine five. What she'll do is
basically help you understand your buying position, but also ensure
(34:52):
that anything that you need to do on your credit
or anything that you need to document, you can do
ahead of time. When you do this backwards, you put
your house on a market, you get it on the contract,
you go out to look, and then you prequalify. A
lot of times you're you're you're behind the eight ball.
You can't get what's done needed. It is more complex
to qualify for a mortgage today. And Melissa, Melissa is
(35:13):
going to start coming on the show with me, and
I want you to understand that she's a guru with
this stuff. Okay, So if you need to qualify while
you're selling to buy, you should not wait until you
go out to start looking at homes to buy. You
should work on that qualification now before your home even
goes on the market. And if it's on the market
(35:33):
and you haven't done it, you should do it now.
If you bought a home in the past and you thought, oh,
it's really easy, I got great credit, I got great income,
it might have been really easy then, Okay, but things
are tighter today. Interest rates are higher, underwriting standards are tighter.
It's it's harder to qualify. Don't let your ego that
you think it's a no brainer and it's easy and
(35:54):
you'll qualify get in the way of your the right choices. Okay,
you might think that you're a slam dunk qualification and
then realize there's something you have to do to position
yourself in the timeframe from when your house sells to
when you find the next one. So again, call Melissa
eight one three seven three five nine three ninety five.
(36:15):
Let her know you heard me talk about it on WFLA.
You can call, you can text her as well. If
your home is on the market, you should not wait
to qualify. If you're selling to buy and it doesn't
look it doesn't matter. Even if you're buying a home
in another part of the country. Molists can help. Let's
say you're selling here and you're buying somewhere else and
you haven't talked to a mortgage lender yet. You should
(36:36):
not wait until your home goes under contract to talk
to a mortgage person. Okay, you should talk to them.
You should one hundred percent talk to them now and
get qualified now so that you don't find out like
I had happened twice in the last couple of weeks,
customers just thought, oh, it's a slam dunk. It's easy
to qualify for a mortgage. Dad have done this so
many times. But the last time they did it, and
(36:57):
all the times before that, was during the Sunshine Unicorn, Fairytale,
fantasy landmarket when everybody could get a mortgage. Okay, it
is not that way today. It is more complicated. You
have to document more things. I've seen deals fall apart
because sellers wait when they're buying somewhere else, whether you're
buying in Tampa Bay or you're buying, you know, in
another part of the country. This is a step that
(37:18):
you need to take and Melissa again can help with that.
You can call her Texter Melissa Rodriguez eight one three
seven three five nine to three nine five with city
Wide Hole Mortgage. She's going to come on the show
and be our our our regular mortgage expert. Pretty much
has all programs available, whether you're a VA FHA, hometown heroes,
(37:39):
regular conventional loan, doctor loans, business owner loans, no, I
mean you you know, no doc loans. When she did
a loan last year for a customer of ours that
you know, really had great credit and assets, and I
think they basically took in an app and it was
like a slam dunk without any documentation, So there are
even simple ways to do it. She's got a variety
(38:02):
of programs and she's going to start coming on the
show soon. And excited to partner with her and have
her on. I think she'll add an extra element to
bring in the knowledge on the mortgage stuff. But I'm
just seeing a lot of home sellers make this mistake.
And we've had we had two deals fall apart in
the last few weeks because the seller thought that their
qualification would be a slam duck and they'd be able
to qualify for what they want, and found out they
(38:23):
couldn't quite qualify for as much as they wanted, and
then they didn't want to sell their house anymore, you know.
So get the intel now, no ahead of time. Find
out what you can do on the mortgage side. On
the other side, and look, don't trust some online calculator.
I'm telling you right now, there's so much fraud out there.
They bump up your costs. There's just a lot of
(38:45):
use somebody local again, Melissa will help you with it.
Eight one, three, seven, three, five, nine five. Avoid the
mistake of waiting to get a mortgage qualification until after
your home has you know has sold, and then you're
out looking at homes and you find this stuff out
after you're already under contract. You know how hard it
(39:06):
is to get out of a sale contract. Wants to seller,
wants to buyer and seller having a greed contract really challenging, okay,
and it can be really expensive and unfortunately you might
even lose and have to give up your house to
the buyer if the buyer doesn't default or want to
let you out. So don't make that mistake. It's a
common one. I'm seeing it far too often right now
because of people that are used to, you know, things
(39:29):
being easier than they are today. So hopefully it's been
helpful all this advice when we aren't on here at
the dunkin Duo, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, always share
in relevant real estate information and knowledge. If you want
an instant cash off, or hit us up at duncinduo
dot com, or just get your home value estimate if
you just want to know what your home is worth
you want to sell at some point down the line, again,
(39:51):
you can do that at duncan duo dot com. Have
an awesome rest of your weekend. Tampa Bay and thanks
for tuning in
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