May 2, 2023 • 13 mins
Economist, author and baseball fan Michael Walden gives us a macro look at an economy that has bounced back surprisingly well post-covid, and offers a generally favorable outlook about what is coming down the pike. You can purchase his 'economic thrillers' at this Amazon Author Page.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to On the Job. As you might be noticing
if you're a longtime listener, I am not Otis Gray.
I'm Avery Thompson, who you may remember hearing way back
in season three when I told my story A Brush
with Fame. Well, I'm back again and I'm excited to
take the wheel for our whole new season of On
the Job, our seventh in fact, So over the next
(00:24):
eight episodes, I'll be speaking with folks who have finally
folded up those pandemic sweatpants and are back out there
doing what they love and keeping America moving forward. This season,
On the Job is on the move, so come along
for the ride. It's become a bit of a tradition
(00:45):
here at On the Job to start the season by
speaking with an economist, someone who can help us understand
the current state of our labor market. So to kick
things off, I gave a call to Raleigh, North Carolina
to speak with doctor Michael L. Walden, Professor Emeritus of
North Carolina State University and veteran economist with over forty
(01:06):
years of expertise. But before you go thinking oh no,
an economist, hit the fast forward button. You'll be relieved
to know that I chose a person that understands your
apprehension and has made it his life's work to help
people get over that econ phobia.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Economics is really common sense, and I've made it my
life's purpose to explain things in ways that people can understand.
And my wife always teased me, I'll probably expire at
some meeting where I'm talking, and I'll just slip off
the podium and go on go to the next level,
because I do love talking about and explain the economics
(01:43):
to people.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
You'll move onto that big economic forum in the sky.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
That's right, And more than just being helpful, Doctor Walden
actually thinks economics can be thrilling.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Literally, I've written with my wife what we call three
economic thrillers. Now, don't laugh, because that's usually reaction I
get because people think thrilling economy that they shouldn't go together.
But I was motivated to that by, quite frankly, the
economists use a lot of really boring textbooks, and I
felt sorry for my students, and I thought if I
(02:16):
could write something that would teach them economics but would
be exciting to read. So over the course of several years,
my wife and I actually wrote three, one on macroeconomics,
one on microeconomics, and one on the financial system, and
students love them.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
So if you're looking for an exciting summer read, we'll
have links to doctor Walden's books in the show notes.
In the meanwhile, I asked them to explain the current
state of our nation's economic affairs, doctor Walden as the
hard hitting journalist that I am. I just did a
quick Google search and I see that the unemployment rate
(02:52):
is three point four percent. That's pretty darn low, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
It's I think, actually a forty or fifty year low.
It's been amazing. In fact, we had a pretty rip
roaring economy prior to the pandemic, and of course the
pandemic hit and we economists knew that that was going
to cause a recession, and it did. We had an
unemployment rate in March I believe March or April of
twenty twenty and fourteen percent, highest since the so called
(03:18):
Great Depression of the nineteen thirties. But once we began
to open up, which happened at the end of May,
and once we the federal government started pushing stimulus money
in the economy began to quickly recover, and actually we
got back to pre levels of at least production within
another quarter, and we've been growing since, and we're actually
now in an economy that's beyond where it was pre
(03:39):
pandemic in terms of production, also in terms of employment.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
I think we can all agree that a low unemployment
rate is a good thing, but I have to admit
that I didn't entirely understand what that looked like out
in our job market. With the unemployment rate being three
point four percent, does that mean that there are no
jobs availed for someone looking or are there lots of
jobs that we just can't keep filled? Oh?
Speaker 2 (04:05):
No, there right now. A lot of people heard this
and recently that there were two jobs available for every
person unemployed. It's actually gotten a little better as about
one point seven jobs available for every person unemployed now.
Pre pandemic, which was more normal, it was only one
point two jobs available for every person employed. So yeah,
there are still signs out there and businesses saying please apply.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
But doctor Wolden explained the types of jobs that are
widely available are different from those that we might have
seen one or two years ago, because as the world
returns to some sort of post pandemic, normal Americans are
once again craving community. We want to hang out at
bars and restaurants again, or maybe take that long overdue vacation.
(04:52):
And therefore the jobs market, those now hiring signs we're
seeing all over town reflect the shift in consumer behavior.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
If you look at the latest job of report we
had for the nation, which came out well January, it
was a very robust report. What we saw is a
lot of people taking restaurant jobs and personal service jobs,
exactly the opposite of what happened after the pandemic. And
I think what's happened here is the tech sector is
slowing down. So I think that this makes sense to
(05:21):
me that as a tech sector shed some people, those people,
maybe some of them are saying, well, I've got to
go back at least for a while, and maybe those
jobs that I left.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Despite the very favorable labor market with nearly two jobs
available for every job seeker, doctor Waldon suggests that we
shouldn't get too comfortable. Employers have a special trick up
their sleeve to combat this labor shortage, that we should
all be careful about.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
One thing we're going to see more of to deal
broadly with the labor shortage is something that we actually
feared a decade ago, and that is technology.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
In other words robots, well, also automation and AI, but yes,
also robots.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
But I think some of those technologies have been developed,
they may hit at just the right time.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
And it's no longer just factory jobs and other repetitive
tasks that are at risk of being replaced.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Especially now, for example, we're getting AI. AI is being
developed and then there's some scary things about that, but
that's going to influence people at more cognitive jobs. So
I don't think we should get too set in thinking
that all this labor shortage is going to go on.
I do think eventually we're going to see a lot
of this technology come in and be used by businesses.
(06:39):
So I still think people need to worry about getting
the skills that they need to get in order to
get the job they want, and just don't be setting
back and saying, oh, I can get a job anytime
I want, because there's so many jobs deal I think
eventually it'll change.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
So doctor Walden's advice, get that job now, folks, strike
while the iron's hot. We'll be right back.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
A strong work ethic takes pride in a job well done.
This is the kind of person you need. Express Employment
professionals can help because in good times or bad, we
understand how critical it is to manage your business for
today with the right workforce. We offer hiring solutions to
fit changing demands. Express knows Jobs. Get to know Express.
(07:29):
Go to expresspros dot com to find a location near you.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
We're back speaking with economist doctor Michael L. Walden, who
is just reflecting on a very strong post pandemic labor
market we're enjoying. But doctor Walden also acknowledges that even
in a blazing labor market that heavily favors the worker,
sometimes landing that job is easier said than done.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
We are probably in an era where what business is
want and the skills that are needed are changing more
rapidly than any time before. And I think, what's going
to happen? This is not me saying this. The kind
of jobs that are going to be applied for people
and the skills that are needed are going to change.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
What doctor Walden is talking about has already been playing
out far and wide. In just three decades, we've gone
from dial up modems to nearly every single job in
America requiring some level of computer proficiency. And we're not
just talking about office workers. Waitresses are taking our orders
on iPads. Mechanics are plugging our cars into diagnostic systems,
(08:40):
metal fabricators are using CNC machines and laser cutters. Even
our doctors are asking us to open wide, stick out
our tongues, and zoom in with our camera phones. And
while the adoption of these technologies has allowed for some
phenomenal advancements, it also poses some challenges to America's workflow.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
And what I worry about is that we may very
well be looking down the road of the situation where
we have a large percentage of people who are say,
middle aged, they've been working at their job for a
decade or two, they've got family to raise, et cetera,
who one day wake up and find their job's gone.
They may be taken over by technology, it may have
been changed in some way, and they need to get retrained,
(09:24):
and they don't have time to go to a four
year college spend four years retraining. So I think we
need to start looking at programs that get people retrained
in skills that are needed quickly. I think we need
to encourage businesses to set up their own training programs
for people. So I think I think the rapidity and
(09:44):
what skills are going to are going to change will
require a much more rapid and efficient educational system.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
So to meet these swiftly changing times, we're going to
have to get clever about education and retraining. From the
returning popularity of trade schools to coding boot camps, Americans
are scrambling to stay ahead and take some agency in
their future career path. Now, of course, I wouldn't be
(10:15):
fulfilling my hosting duties here if I spoke to an
economist and didn't ask him to gaze into his crystal ball.
So I had doctor Walden with a question that seems
to be on everyone's minds these days. Will we have
a recession? And his response was.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
I'm in the camp that I think we will toward
the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
But before you get too concerned, he added some very
interesting caveats.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
So there's one idea that economists that have been batting
around sort of in the background here is that if
we get a recession, we may actually see businesses not
layoff anyone, or maybe the layoff would be very minyl
because they can cut their labor CAUs by simply cutting
the number of unfilled positions. So the forecast that I've seen,
(11:02):
even in the worst case scenario is maybe the unemployment
rate would go up to five percent and five percent
of employment. Now, no, I don't want anyone listening to
think that I don't care about unemployed people. I do.
My father working in construction, he was unemployed a couple
of times, always every year, and I remember living through that.
But if five percent of unemployment when I was engraved
(11:25):
with school fifty years ago, that was considered full employment.
And so if we get to five percent employment and
that's the worst during what I think will be an
upcoming recession, that would be great. So fingers crossed. If
we do have a recession, I think there'll be best
case scenario, there'll be no negative impact on the job market.
But if it's a normal situation, even minimal impact on
(11:48):
the job market, and then we'll get back. And then
the other thing. The other thing the companies are remembering
is they had to work hard to get the people
they have because it's so competitive, and so a lot
of companies are reluctant to let people go because they're
worried they can't get him back when times get back
to normal and the economy blooms again.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Only time will tell how things play out, but I
hope for everyone's sake that doctor Walden is right and
things won't be as bad as some of these doomsday
pundits have been predicting that this labor market will continue
to roar. But then, just as we were wrapping up
our interview, I noticed hanging in the background of his
(12:35):
office a long row of baseball caps, all of them
bearing the logo of the Cincinnati Reds. And if you
know anything about the Cincinnati Reds, then you know you
have to be an eternal optimist to keep rooting for them.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
My Reds had a horrible season last year. I think
they lost one hundred and two games, But I'm always
optimistic about a lot of young players, so I'm looking
for good things from the Reds. Maybe not World Series,
but at least being competitive.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
So maybe we should take doctor Waldon's positive economic outlook
with a grain of salt. Or maybe he's completely right
and we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For on
the job, I'm Avery Thompson, I'll see you down the road.
Welcome to On the Job. As you might be noticing
if you're a longtime listener, I am not Otis Gray.
I'm Avery Thompson, who you may remember hearing way back
in season three when I told my story A Brush
with Fame. Well, I'm back again and I'm excited to
take the wheel for our whole new season of On
the Job, our seventh in fact, So over the next
(00:24):
eight episodes, I'll be speaking with folks who have finally
folded up those pandemic sweatpants and are back out there
doing what they love and keeping America moving forward. This season,
On the Job is on the move, so come along
for the ride. It's become a bit of a tradition
(00:45):
here at On the Job to start the season by
speaking with an economist, someone who can help us understand
the current state of our labor market. So to kick
things off, I gave a call to Raleigh, North Carolina
to speak with doctor Michael L. Walden, Professor Emeritus of
North Carolina State University and veteran economist with over forty
(01:06):
years of expertise. But before you go thinking oh no,
an economist, hit the fast forward button. You'll be relieved
to know that I chose a person that understands your
apprehension and has made it his life's work to help
people get over that econ phobia.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Economics is really common sense, and I've made it my
life's purpose to explain things in ways that people can understand.
And my wife always teased me, I'll probably expire at
some meeting where I'm talking, and I'll just slip off
the podium and go on go to the next level,
because I do love talking about and explain the economics
(01:43):
to people.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
You'll move onto that big economic forum in the sky.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
That's right, And more than just being helpful, Doctor Walden
actually thinks economics can be thrilling.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Literally, I've written with my wife what we call three
economic thrillers. Now, don't laugh, because that's usually reaction I
get because people think thrilling economy that they shouldn't go together.
But I was motivated to that by, quite frankly, the
economists use a lot of really boring textbooks, and I
felt sorry for my students, and I thought if I
(02:16):
could write something that would teach them economics but would
be exciting to read. So over the course of several years,
my wife and I actually wrote three, one on macroeconomics,
one on microeconomics, and one on the financial system, and
students love them.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
So if you're looking for an exciting summer read, we'll
have links to doctor Walden's books in the show notes.
In the meanwhile, I asked them to explain the current
state of our nation's economic affairs, doctor Walden as the
hard hitting journalist that I am. I just did a
quick Google search and I see that the unemployment rate
(02:52):
is three point four percent. That's pretty darn low, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
It's I think, actually a forty or fifty year low.
It's been amazing. In fact, we had a pretty rip
roaring economy prior to the pandemic, and of course the
pandemic hit and we economists knew that that was going
to cause a recession, and it did. We had an
unemployment rate in March I believe March or April of
twenty twenty and fourteen percent, highest since the so called
(03:18):
Great Depression of the nineteen thirties. But once we began
to open up, which happened at the end of May,
and once we the federal government started pushing stimulus money
in the economy began to quickly recover, and actually we
got back to pre levels of at least production within
another quarter, and we've been growing since, and we're actually
now in an economy that's beyond where it was pre
(03:39):
pandemic in terms of production, also in terms of employment.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
I think we can all agree that a low unemployment
rate is a good thing, but I have to admit
that I didn't entirely understand what that looked like out
in our job market. With the unemployment rate being three
point four percent, does that mean that there are no
jobs availed for someone looking or are there lots of
jobs that we just can't keep filled? Oh?
Speaker 2 (04:05):
No, there right now. A lot of people heard this
and recently that there were two jobs available for every
person unemployed. It's actually gotten a little better as about
one point seven jobs available for every person unemployed now.
Pre pandemic, which was more normal, it was only one
point two jobs available for every person employed. So yeah,
there are still signs out there and businesses saying please apply.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
But doctor Wolden explained the types of jobs that are
widely available are different from those that we might have
seen one or two years ago, because as the world
returns to some sort of post pandemic, normal Americans are
once again craving community. We want to hang out at
bars and restaurants again, or maybe take that long overdue vacation.
(04:52):
And therefore the jobs market, those now hiring signs we're
seeing all over town reflect the shift in consumer behavior.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
If you look at the latest job of report we
had for the nation, which came out well January, it
was a very robust report. What we saw is a
lot of people taking restaurant jobs and personal service jobs,
exactly the opposite of what happened after the pandemic. And
I think what's happened here is the tech sector is
slowing down. So I think that this makes sense to
(05:21):
me that as a tech sector shed some people, those people,
maybe some of them are saying, well, I've got to
go back at least for a while, and maybe those
jobs that I left.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Despite the very favorable labor market with nearly two jobs
available for every job seeker, doctor Waldon suggests that we
shouldn't get too comfortable. Employers have a special trick up
their sleeve to combat this labor shortage, that we should
all be careful about.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
One thing we're going to see more of to deal
broadly with the labor shortage is something that we actually
feared a decade ago, and that is technology.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
In other words robots, well, also automation and AI, but yes,
also robots.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
But I think some of those technologies have been developed,
they may hit at just the right time.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
And it's no longer just factory jobs and other repetitive
tasks that are at risk of being replaced.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Especially now, for example, we're getting AI. AI is being
developed and then there's some scary things about that, but
that's going to influence people at more cognitive jobs. So
I don't think we should get too set in thinking
that all this labor shortage is going to go on.
I do think eventually we're going to see a lot
of this technology come in and be used by businesses.
(06:39):
So I still think people need to worry about getting
the skills that they need to get in order to
get the job they want, and just don't be setting
back and saying, oh, I can get a job anytime
I want, because there's so many jobs deal I think
eventually it'll change.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
So doctor Walden's advice, get that job now, folks, strike
while the iron's hot. We'll be right back.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
A strong work ethic takes pride in a job well done.
This is the kind of person you need. Express Employment
professionals can help because in good times or bad, we
understand how critical it is to manage your business for
today with the right workforce. We offer hiring solutions to
fit changing demands. Express knows Jobs. Get to know Express.
(07:29):
Go to expresspros dot com to find a location near you.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
We're back speaking with economist doctor Michael L. Walden, who
is just reflecting on a very strong post pandemic labor
market we're enjoying. But doctor Walden also acknowledges that even
in a blazing labor market that heavily favors the worker,
sometimes landing that job is easier said than done.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
We are probably in an era where what business is
want and the skills that are needed are changing more
rapidly than any time before. And I think, what's going
to happen? This is not me saying this. The kind
of jobs that are going to be applied for people
and the skills that are needed are going to change.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
What doctor Walden is talking about has already been playing
out far and wide. In just three decades, we've gone
from dial up modems to nearly every single job in
America requiring some level of computer proficiency. And we're not
just talking about office workers. Waitresses are taking our orders
on iPads. Mechanics are plugging our cars into diagnostic systems,
(08:40):
metal fabricators are using CNC machines and laser cutters. Even
our doctors are asking us to open wide, stick out
our tongues, and zoom in with our camera phones. And
while the adoption of these technologies has allowed for some
phenomenal advancements, it also poses some challenges to America's workflow.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
And what I worry about is that we may very
well be looking down the road of the situation where
we have a large percentage of people who are say,
middle aged, they've been working at their job for a
decade or two, they've got family to raise, et cetera,
who one day wake up and find their job's gone.
They may be taken over by technology, it may have
been changed in some way, and they need to get retrained,
(09:24):
and they don't have time to go to a four
year college spend four years retraining. So I think we
need to start looking at programs that get people retrained
in skills that are needed quickly. I think we need
to encourage businesses to set up their own training programs
for people. So I think I think the rapidity and
(09:44):
what skills are going to are going to change will
require a much more rapid and efficient educational system.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
So to meet these swiftly changing times, we're going to
have to get clever about education and retraining. From the
returning popularity of trade schools to coding boot camps, Americans
are scrambling to stay ahead and take some agency in
their future career path. Now, of course, I wouldn't be
(10:15):
fulfilling my hosting duties here if I spoke to an
economist and didn't ask him to gaze into his crystal ball.
So I had doctor Walden with a question that seems
to be on everyone's minds these days. Will we have
a recession? And his response was.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
I'm in the camp that I think we will toward
the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
But before you get too concerned, he added some very
interesting caveats.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
So there's one idea that economists that have been batting
around sort of in the background here is that if
we get a recession, we may actually see businesses not
layoff anyone, or maybe the layoff would be very minyl
because they can cut their labor CAUs by simply cutting
the number of unfilled positions. So the forecast that I've seen,
(11:02):
even in the worst case scenario is maybe the unemployment
rate would go up to five percent and five percent
of employment. Now, no, I don't want anyone listening to
think that I don't care about unemployed people. I do.
My father working in construction, he was unemployed a couple
of times, always every year, and I remember living through that.
But if five percent of unemployment when I was engraved
(11:25):
with school fifty years ago, that was considered full employment.
And so if we get to five percent employment and
that's the worst during what I think will be an
upcoming recession, that would be great. So fingers crossed. If
we do have a recession, I think there'll be best
case scenario, there'll be no negative impact on the job market.
But if it's a normal situation, even minimal impact on
(11:48):
the job market, and then we'll get back. And then
the other thing. The other thing the companies are remembering
is they had to work hard to get the people
they have because it's so competitive, and so a lot
of companies are reluctant to let people go because they're
worried they can't get him back when times get back
to normal and the economy blooms again.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Only time will tell how things play out, but I
hope for everyone's sake that doctor Walden is right and
things won't be as bad as some of these doomsday
pundits have been predicting that this labor market will continue
to roar. But then, just as we were wrapping up
our interview, I noticed hanging in the background of his
(12:35):
office a long row of baseball caps, all of them
bearing the logo of the Cincinnati Reds. And if you
know anything about the Cincinnati Reds, then you know you
have to be an eternal optimist to keep rooting for them.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
My Reds had a horrible season last year. I think
they lost one hundred and two games, But I'm always
optimistic about a lot of young players, so I'm looking
for good things from the Reds. Maybe not World Series,
but at least being competitive.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
So maybe we should take doctor Waldon's positive economic outlook
with a grain of salt. Or maybe he's completely right
and we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For on
the job, I'm Avery Thompson, I'll see you down the road.
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