Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hey guys, welcome to the Buck Brief. On this episode,
Ryan Gradusky back in the mixed National Populist newsletter is
his sub stack plus very exciting announcement here on the program,
Ryan is joining the Klanbuck podcast network next year with
the show it's called It's.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
A Numbers Game with Ryan Gardusky. I'm very excited. Thank
you for letting me in on your Marvel universe of
podcast hosts.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
It'll be awesome. That's right, we got, we got Ryan,
Carol Tutor, Sean Parnell. Great great stuff going on there.
But let's since it's a numbers game, talk me. Talk
me through this number. The seven million votes that Biden
got in twenty twenty that we are now at one point,
it was fifteen million, right, but they had to count
(00:55):
California and a few other places. But it's seven millions a
lot of votes. And Trump went up a couple million
from twenty twenty two, Kamala dropped seven million. What can
you tell us about this gap? Because people got questions,
a lot of questions right right now.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
I get it, I mean, I get the questions. I
was actually looking for the exact number as of today,
the exactly because they just threw in, you know, two
hundred and fifty thousand votes from New York that it
was delayed in counting. So right now Trump is seventy
seven point one nine three million votes, Kamala Harris is
seventy four point nine million, so she's about seventy five
and he's about seventy seven point two. Biden got eighty
(01:34):
one point two, so she's about six point two million under. Okay,
what that's a lot of voats, that's a lot of votes.
It was at one point fifteen million. As you said,
blue states are very slow accounting the votes, so it
was going to get lower and lower. But there's really
nothing left to count unless they pull out a big
number out like New Jersey or whatever. But I think
they certified New Jersey. So where you see the drop,
(01:58):
the tremendous drop in votes is in places like New York,
New Jersey, California, These very very blue states, Georgia, Michigan,
North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Big surgeon voting, Big surgeon
New voting. So what Washington State and Oregon you dropped Portland,
(02:18):
you drop out of the city of Portland, and in
the early vote going into election day, you saw Portland
was not showing up. So what it says to me
is two things. One, it was a big drop of
minorities turning up. The reason I thought that Trump was
probably gonna win at seven thirty on election night was
the minority vote. The Black vote, which is usually thirteen
(02:39):
percent of the national vote, was eleven percent, two percent dropage. Overall,
Hispanic vote was usually thirteen percent. I think it was
a twelve percent. And the white vote had actually climbed
three to four points of the overall national vote. If
you look at where the votes were coming from, it's
in these very, very blue states. So two things may
have happened. One, they left the states during COVID and
(03:01):
they never registered to vote, which is very very possible
twenty twenty, they moved out of New York, New Jersey
and California when these draconian laws were happening, they didn't vote,
or the access to early easy voting with mail and
voters propelled a lot of the vote that didn't shop
the second time or lastly, a lot of minorities. And
(03:22):
this is what the New York Times Nate com is
saying today. The minorities who were most likely to vote
for Donald Trump didn't show up. So I think there
was the black voters on like sixty six percent of
blacks who wanted to vote for Trump, or sixty people
blacks who did not vote wanted to overcome with thirty
four percent want to vote for Trump, so one in
(03:43):
three versus sixteen percent that they got nationally, and feeling conflicted,
they chose the couch. I think that I really do
believe that they're because the idea that Trump was this
existential crisis that they had been propelling and pushing for years.
And we'd had four years from being president, and you know,
we didn't get involved in World War Three, and you know,
(04:04):
everyone didn't go into interming camps and all these lies
the Democrats had for all these years. I think a
lot of people were okay with Trump being president, even
if they didn't like him, and they didn't show up.
But they didn't come out of swing states. They didn't
come out of Michigan or Pennsylvania or Georgia. And it
wasn't like any of the states that were responsible for
giving Biden to seventy saw this dipping pulling voting. They
(04:25):
all actually saw a surgeon voting. I think that it
was a combination maybe of all three things.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
So the number six point two million, Kamala underperformed the
white working class vote in the Swing States. What can
we say about the role that that played?
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Now, well, it was very big. But I think the
bigger question is is, and we're going to know more
as time goes on, was how if you look at
if you look at Hillary Hillary.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Can John banjes the better question? Better question? Why did
Trump win the Swing States by the numbers?
Speaker 2 (05:02):
I mean, there's so if you look at AP vote cast, right,
which is the best source we have so far on
all the data in the Swing States. One, Republicans did
an amazing job of registering voters for the last four years.
In Pennsylvania they reduced number by like four hundred thousand.
In Arizona it was like a quarter of a million.
They worked for four years, actually enrolled registering new Republicans
(05:24):
in states that had registered Republicans. One, the female vote
was not this month mon like monstrosity towards Harris Like.
It wasn't this tidal wave of female support that. But
you know what, the polls never said that. The media
said that, But the polling literally never had her at
a bigger point with women and Hillary or Biden. She
(05:46):
was always in performing, but she underperformed even what the
polls were saying. She lost. She won women by six points.
The polling had her winning women by ten or eleven
versus Hillary is like fourteen. So she underperforming women was
a big, big, big part of it. The polls were
dead right when it came to minorities. I mean they
(06:07):
hit almost exactly where they said then already vote would
be was actually what showed up. They were off on
the youth vote. Young voters did show up for Trump
in a very big way. Young women showed up for
Trump in a bigger way than people think. Over forty
percent of young women voted for Trump, which they did
not expect. I did not expect. And the senior vote,
(06:27):
which I talked about a lot, Trump wonted, Trump wanted,
didn't win it by five or four points, but he
won it by three. Polster said he was going to
lose it by six, so he didn't lose too much
ground with senior citizens. We're going to get more data
on that later on, especially as retired communities are coming in.
But he didn't lose that much support with them. He won.
(06:49):
He gained support in the suburbs, he gained support among minorities,
and he gained support among women. And I think that
a combination. And he didn't he didn't lose anything with
the white working class and didn't lose anything with the
college educated white voters. So I think all of those,
I mean, those were the That's why he won. That's
why he got within six That and the drop of
(07:09):
Democrats support in Democratic states is why he came within
five points in New Jersey. Is why you won all
seven swing states. It's why he's within two points in
Minnesota and New Hampshire. I mean, and you know what
is incredible when you think about it, if Joe Biden
had been the nominee as things had progressed and how
bad as he got mentally, there's no question that New
(07:30):
York would have been, you know, within a few monks.
I think that New Jersey would have been Republican. I
think that Minnesota would have been republican. New Hampshire in
republican Virginia and New Mexico. I think that you would
have seen a cataclysmic election day result that is even
worse than how combol it did.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
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is the leader of the Democrat resistance or what do
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beginning of Trump's term? You know, who are the people
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wide Mote Research. Is it going to be nominee AOC
in twenty eight? Take out the crystal ball? Who's because
(09:11):
here's me. Let me just preface this a little bit.
I think Obama did a lot of damage. And I
know Joe Rogan spoke about this, but I think Obama
Obama did a lot of damage to his brand among
sort of center and central left people with the whole
very fine people lie that he tried against Trump. At
the end, it's just a lie. And Obama's a smart guy.
(09:32):
He knows it's a lie. He didn't care. He just
tried to smear Trump. So he's not above it at all.
I never thought he was. But Obama's not above the
most you know, obvious and gross lies, and he can't
run again, I think finally, unless some boomers start yelling
at me for this, I don't think Michelle Obama's running.
That's not happening.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
I don't think Michelle Obama will ever do another political
event again. Yeah, I'll ever speak another DNC. I don't
think she will ever do anything political ever again.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Yeah. The people who've been saying that you know that
she's not interested, we were.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
Toed, we were we were tard and feather for telling
people that you're that she would not be the nominee
and some other political commentators on the right word where
they were burning that flame for.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
A long time.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
Oh that is true. So here's what I want to know.
Who steps in? Who is? You know, you got these
people like Shift and that other guy, a Goldman who
are very big and kind of impeachment legal, Russia Trump stuff,
you know all this. They don't have it right. They
(10:38):
don't have any X factor, they don't have any national
level charisma. Is the list really Whitmer, Newsome, the stout
fellow from Illinois and you know who?
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Yeah, yeah, Shapiro, Yeah, I think that one. The resistance
as it is looks a lot different than it did
in twenty sixteen. You're not seeing Democrats act the same way.
You're not seeing Democrats lose their minds so publicly as
(11:15):
they did there. I guess the nervous breakdowns are more
inside the house than outside in public. I don't know
if you're going to have another women's march where you know,
millions of women take to the streets. I think Trump
winning the popular vote really took the wind out of
their sales in a big, big way. They can say
it was an illegitimately elected president by their standards. Also,
(11:35):
there's thing called a Popular Vote Compact where these states
got together and said, who everyone's a popul vote, We're
going to give them all their electoral college votes. I
would love to see if they actually They include California
and New York. So let's see if they actually give
their electoral college votes to Donald Trump. But that's neither
here nor there. I think that when it comes to
the resistance or the next leadership, look look at Hillary's convention,
(11:59):
look at Biden's convention, and look at Harris's convention. When
you look at the way they approach the Democratic Party,
they really their goal has always been to win over
center right, independence, military people, moderates, They've they've made an
open gesture towards them, even if the party has been unhinged.
(12:21):
I don't know if that's going to happen anymore. I
don't think and this is what I truly think. I
don't think Democrats will nominate another woman to be president
for a very very long time. I just don't see
how that's going to happen at this point, given the
two the only two to lose, you know, I lose
to Trump or women. I just don't see that happening.
(12:41):
I don't think that Whitmer has it. I think Shapiro
is somebody to look out for. I think Wes Moore
or somebody to watch out for. I think Wes Moore
has a lot of what they're looking for. He's the
governor of Maryland right now. But it will be a
fight over the more sensibly approach Democrats, Democrats who actually
like look like they're normal, and then that like that
(13:02):
congressman from Texas, I forget her name now. She just
comes off as completely unhinged and nutty and screaming all
the time. She feeds the base like what Corey Bush
fed the base and but what the party wants is
a much different approach to it. But I would guess
a Wes Moore or a Jos Shapiro is who they're
going to turn their eyes to. There's not a lot
of senate talent and real least slock and I'm not
(13:24):
exactly sure there's not a ton of senate talent where
they're going to sit there and pull front.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
I feel like this is we We've gone in a
couple of election cycles from which Democrat dynasty is going
to elbow out the other one to what Democrat dynasty
Like there really isn't one in the mix right now.
I mean RFK Junior is part of Trump world right right.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
And you know the big the funny thing is, and
the interesting thing is is that there is like once
and you know, our buddy and cultises all the time,
once all the white men were phased out of the party,
that Joe Biden generation, the Nancy Pelosi generation, Senny Hoyers generation.
It is the craziest people left. There is not you know,
(14:08):
a normal one. There is not a power broker like
her their in their wings right now. I mean the
average voter would still say Nancy Pelosi leads the House Democrats,
and it's not Akeem Jefferies from New York. I mean,
no one really believes that Hakim is calling more shots
than Nancy is, and I think that that's evidence. So
I think that they don't have I think the reason,
(14:31):
like Nancy Pelosi is still around at eighty two, eighty
four years old and still calling all the shots is
there isn't a natural successor in the I don't think
that there is, and I don't Maybe there will be,
but I don't see it. And you know what, they
didn't like Obama that much either as being a quote
unquote successor because they had a lot of people from
(14:51):
the Chicago machine and machine Democrats running his White House
and his administration. They weren't like, they didn't think that
he was going to be the power broker. Could you
I read an article about this. Can you name one
thing politically Obama has done since leaving the White House?
Speaker 1 (15:06):
No, not one he does.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
He's all been about Netflix and documentaries and living. I mean, good,
good for him. He's making money. You have a nice life.
But his legacy is pretty horrendous. When you really look
back at the political legacy of Barack Obama after his
first two years when he got Obamacare and everything through.
You have the downfall the Democratic Party where they lost
(15:32):
a thousand legislative seats the House and the Senate, the
election of Donald Trump, I guess, the election of Joe Biden,
where he had some policy goals whatever, but it was
horribly unpopular. And then Kamala Harris, the woman that he
pushed Biden to pick a his VP, loses against Donald
Trump again, and Republicans have a trifector in Congress, and
(15:54):
Democrats have never been so leadershipless really going back to
like when Clinton was first running in the nineties.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
Well, that's what I mean. It feels like you have
the most wide open Democrat field in my adult lifetime.
I've never seen anything like this. So that's why I
asked you question. It feels like Trump's, you know, Trump's agenda.
I mean, They've never never been in a better position
to make big gains and big changes. But right well
they can.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
If they can do it, if they can do it,
and they can do it. But also I mean, like
there is we're in a moment right now where we're
at the last act of the Trump Show, Like this
is it like this is his last term. Hopefully he
I mean, he configured a electoral map that may ultimately
(16:40):
change politics in the same way that Richard Nixon did
in nineteen sixty eight when he brought Southern Democrats and
Neo Cohns and ethnic whites into the party. Trump Trump
did that in twenty twenty four, and if they're smart,
they can do it again and they can keep it
and grow the party in that In that fashion, Trump's
legacy to a large degree, is going to be made
(17:00):
in the next three and a half years. And then
once that's over, it's is an absence of what we
haven't had in twelve years. We will not have. We
will never have a man like Donald Trump run for
and again in our lifetimes, but we because he is
such a special individual figure. But the whole Trump Ethos
show is going to come to an end, and it
(17:21):
is a big question as to what follows, because I
would say seventy percent of Republicans in Congress are more
like George Bush Republicans than Donald Trump Republicans. We have
a great vice president, but we have a lot of
people who very much are like build the Wall. But
here's my George Bush bumper stick or over under my
(17:43):
Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Yeah, the party, you know, the sort of Cheney Bush
party might might have a resurgence anyway. Well, let's not
make everybody sad with that quite yet. Let's talk about
Eric Adams. Let's talk about Eric Adams in New York City.
What's going on there? But first up, you know, the
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two T dot org. That's t the number two T
dot org. Eric Adams is being indicted by the or
(18:49):
has been indicted by the Feds, right, so they're coming
after him for some To me, it looks like some nonsense.
Now we're saying criminal illegals, which I know this is
kind of this is like, what does that even mean?
Illegal alien status in the country, plus committing additional crimes.
He says he's going to kick him out and help
deport them, like pass them all along to Ice.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
And so is Kathy Hopal.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Yeah, so does the governor New York all of a
sudden what's going on here?
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Yeah? I think that well, and I don't I think
that he I think that he would love a pardon
right now. I don't think there's a chance he wins
reelection as of right now, especially because New York has
that stupid system where you vote for your second place
in the third place, but a voter choice rank choice.
If he was very strong, Andrew Cuomo would not be
(19:39):
prepping to run, which he is, and he's going to
be outflying from the progressive. So I think that right
now he's looking at his best bet for how he
gets through this, and I think that it's I think
it's I mean, it's good politics, good policy ahead of
a reelection. So maybe he's trying to win over some
support from, you know, communities affected by crime. And the
(20:01):
fact that Katy Holpe was agreeing with him. I think
there's a lot of I think there's a lot of
people looking at the tea leaves in New York City,
in New York State and saying, how of the state
that was as left as California become more to the
right than Texas is to the left, Like Texas is
more is less of a swing state than New York
is in the last election, and that elections have become
(20:25):
tighter and tighter and tighter every election for the last
three successive elections, right for mayor, New York City for
governor for two elections, those things have been working in
Republicans favor, and I think that they're I think they're nervous.
I think they're genuinely nervous. There's a seed change in
New York happening, and Eric Adams needs a place to land.
I think that's he's thinking. I think I have to
(20:47):
I have to be different. I can't be you know,
I have to move to the middle in order to
secure an election victory, because you know, there's a couple
of bole allegedly looking at running are going to be
serious that we'll have serious money and lots of money
and a lot a real campaign against her if they run.
I don't think they're going to take New York governor
races like they did in the mid ods, where they
(21:07):
would just you know, not back anybody.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
So yes, you think that New York politics in New
York has gotten a bit of a shakeup because to me,
to me, it's interesting that you know, the biggest city
in America has and the state of New York, as
you point out, the governor changing their tune on immigration
right before. The biggest challenge that I see, imminent challenge
that I see Trump facing is if they're really going
(21:30):
to ramp up deportations in a way that people know,
you know that they're not just talking about but you're
aware of it. That's going to get that's going to
get very interesting and very heated, right.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
And listen, I mean, if they can go to rikers
and start bringing them out, and there's some amount Rikers
waiting for them one hundred percent. But look, here's the thing.
It's uf Al County before Trump in twenty sixteen had
not voted a Republican since I think nineteen eighty eight.
It went for Republicans by eleven points. Saddn Island, which
you would think is a Republican place, went for Obama
(22:05):
over Romney. In twenty twelve, it went by thirty points
for Trump. Queens count is more Republican than Westchester County,
which I that is that is like you know, waking
up one day and speaking Japanese, if like that is unbelievable,
that that is all happening. The numbers are just wild.
(22:26):
Places in like New York City that I would have
never ever assumed a Republican would ever get a vote.
Jesus Christ could have ran as Republican and lost. Donald
Trump won like Jackson Heights, Queen's That's an area that
there was no There was never a question that was
going to happen. The Bronx and Brooklyn being even as
far as Republican vote is wild and it's all organic,
(22:49):
there is no functioning Republican party in New York State.
Outside the Congression elections, no one puts money in this state.
The media market's so expensive. There's no Republican as being
streamed into New York City. It's wildly costly. This is
one hundred percent organic, and that is what's making them nervous.
And they want to know why why did Adams have
(23:12):
a tighter election for mayor last time against Curtis Lee? Well,
who I like Curtis and nothing no problem with them,
but it was a bit of a joe campaign. And
why is it gonna Why is why? You know any
Democrat is going to face the same uphill battle where
things are.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
Do you think a Republican remember Romney was governor of
Massachusetts back in the day. Do you think that a
a centrist Republican UH would be in a position to
run against and beat hocel Or? You know, do you
think that's you think that could happening one.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Hundred percent true. I think, especially as they moved to
the center, they're saying in New York. In New York,
there's something called a Wilson bakula, which means that you
can run as more than one party, So you can
run as a Republican an independent and a conservative, and
all those votes are tabulated together and that's what you get.
And that's often what happens. There's something called the Working
Families Party, which is a very far left liberal party
(24:07):
in New York State. They never like endorsed or the
Green Party never indored dors Andrew Plomo. I don't think
the Working Failey Party ever endorsed Andrew Plomo either. If so,
like Jimani Williams ran for mayor or some other very
far left liberal New Yorker ran for governor. As Kathy
Hlchal's moving to the right, I could see the Working
(24:27):
Family Party endorsing against her and running a third party
person against her. And they actually have registered voters. They
have over one hundred thousand plus registered voters. That would
mean something, that would really really mean something in a
very tight election. If like a Mike Lawler, who who
was clearly a very serious candidate who outran Trump by
seven points in his district, ran and won in a
(24:49):
seat that Harris won, if he ran, I think it's
a very serious thing, especially as Long Island's becoming red
red red. You know, Queens is close to forty percents
Daden Island is the most second most red county in
all the mid Atlantic outside of Ocean County. New Jersey
and upstate is bloining a little bit, but it's a
lot of mixed manhatmites moving up there, so you never know.
(25:12):
I mean, it's a far different thing of New York
City is changing in a way that makes it much
more competitive than the state is changing to.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
So, I mean it sounds like just to close us
up here, Ryan, the sense of political devastation that some
of us believe the Democrats must be feeling. They are
kind of feeling it right now. I mean that things are.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, they're going through a social thing. Listen, seven years
of saying the most insane things did not work for them.
Boys can be girls in preschool, they all can play
sports together, and then we'll do Black Lives Matter, and
then we'll do DEI and no one gets grades and
no one gets policed, and everything's gonna be the most wonderful, happy,
magical place. It didn't really work for them. So now
(25:54):
you're sitting here and seeing a bunch of Democrats saying, hey,
let's do something different, Let's find that sweet spot. Is it?
Like John Fetterman, who is moderated on a lot of things.
Is it just being pro Israel like Richie Torres is doing.
Is it doing some kind of immigration enforcement? Is it
the girls and boys sports like Seth Mouland from Massachusetts
is doing. They're all looking for how do I get
(26:16):
back to the middle by cutting off these very insane
fringe parts of the Democratic Party? Is is that going
to cost you more than when? And they're all taking
a different approach to it to find themselves where they
should be because they lost their minds in twenty twenty
and now they're waking up to smell the coffee.
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When does the Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski launch on
the network. Everyone's very excited. I'm very excited.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
You know, well, January twenty twenty five. I don't know
the exact date yet, but it is coming next month
and a half, so we'll not in a month, in
one month, so I will infront one month that it
was there. But yeah, in one month and January twenty
twenty five, it's a numbers game that Ryan Gourdeski comes
out our first episode. I believe we are going to
discuss what is a new swing district? What are the
(27:58):
new areas that change because of this election? And I
will go break down numbers every week. I'm going to
have a new piece of data that everyone should hear
about and know about, and I will dive into it.
It'll be political, it'll be economic, it'll be cultural, and
it will be the thing that you should know about.
Speaker 1 (28:14):
Fantastic Ryan or Dusk everybody. Ryan, thanks so much, Thank you,