August 1, 2025 • 18 mins
The Super Bull signal that only triggered twice in Bitcoin’s history... just flashed again. Each time it happened — in 2017 and 2020 — Bitcoin went on an exponential run. And based on the data, this time could be even more powerful. Most people won’t realize what’s happening until it’s too late. But if you understand this signal now, you can position before the crowd.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Super Bowl signal that only triggered twice in bitcoin's
history just flashed again.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Now.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Each time this has happened in twenty seventeen and twenty twenty,
bitcoin went on an exponential run, and based on the data,
this time could even be way more powerful. Now most
people won't realize what's happening until it's too late. But
if you understand this signal right now, you can position
yourself before the crowd. Now, I'm Mark Moss. Since twenty sixteen,
(00:26):
I've helped millions navigate bitcoin.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Cycles using data not hype.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
I'm a partner at a leading bitcoin venture fund, and
I advise companies building the future of finance on bitcoin. Now,
in this video, I'm going to walk you through the
same system, the same signals that we use to make decisions,
and how you can use them too.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
So let's go.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
Okay, So we are talking about a bull signal. We're
talking about a signal change. There's times and periods where
things change, and of course you have to change your
investing strategy.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Now, there's one chart that's commonly ignored when we talk
about this.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
So hear me talk a lot about debt debt cycles,
we talk about M two money supply, things like that,
and a lot of people think about this right here, Okay,
this is the US M two.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Now, of course this makes sense because.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
The US dollar is the reserve currency of the world,
and so if we look at the USM two, the
money supply, then we can see that as this goes up,
then of course asset prices go up with it. As
a matter of fact, the S and P five hundred
moves about in lockstep with this. The national median home
price moves pretty close in lockstep with this. But when
it comes to more international assets like bitcoin, like gold
(01:38):
and other commodities, we want to be looking at another chart,
and we're talking about the Global M two, not USM
two Global M two or global Liquidity index. Now I
make a bunch of videos about this, and there's a
lot of ways to break this down. But if we
look at this very simply, we can look at global
M two and we can understand.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
If it's growing or rising.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
So these greens are when it's expanding rapidly. The red
down here is when it's declining rapidly. But of course
it's always going up. So what we can see here
is the green is the year over year growth. The
blue line that we have here is the money supply,
so it's always going up and we can see how
fast it's expanding. And then what we have overlaid here
(02:19):
is the red line is the bitcoin price. And now the
reason why I'm showing you this is because what happens,
like almost every chart, is we have periods where it
goes up and then it consolidates, and then it has
a breakout, and then it consolidates and it has a breakout,
sort of like our life. Now, what we can see
in this chart is there's a time where this M
too money supply hits a consolidation and then it breaks
(02:40):
out and it goes higher, and then it consolidates and
it goes way higher, and then it consolidates and it
goes higher. It's important to understand this because it's what
pushes asset price is higher. We can see in a
chart here. This is from real vision over here. Everyone
loves to correct me in the in the comments about that.
(03:01):
Of course it has it right here on the chart. Okay,
what we can see here is that global M two supply,
which is the black line overlaid with the bitcoin price,
which is the pink line.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Now, this has.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
About a twelve week lag, so it doesn't move day
to day, right one to one. But what we can
see is they're matched almost perfectly. And when we go
into a consolidation pattern and then we see M two
break out with a lag, what do you think happens next?
You can be an elementary kid and understand the pattern,
and of course that is bitcoin breaking out. Now, this
(03:34):
has been a major predictor of every big Bitcoin Bowl
run that we've had twenty seventeen, twenty twenty, and it
just triggered again. Now the question is how big and
how fast is the move up in liquidity and what
will that mean for Bitcoin's price when we look at
it from historical angles, And don't worry, I got you
(03:54):
covered on that.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Let's break that down.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
So the first thing we want to know is that
in these past global liquidity breakouts, what's happened.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Let's take a look.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
We can see that in twenty seventeen we saw about
a twenty x return. Now again just going back to this,
we see the explosive move up, the consolidation, the explosives
move up, the consolidation, the explosive move up and the
consolidation Now if you can zoom in editor zoom in,
(04:24):
you can see there is a breakout forming. The question
then is how big and how fast and how severe
will that move be? Okay, we're gonna break that down
for you. I just wanted to kind of show you
what that looks like. Now again, if we overlay that,
we can see that in past breakouts, like right here,
we had a pretty big move. Right this was pretty big,
(04:45):
but in this breakout you can see how much bigger
this move was.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Why well, because.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
That was during the pandemic, right the entire world went
into a massive liquidity easing cycle because you know, they
shut the whole world down.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
We had to make up for that.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
And so what we really want to understand is how
big will this move be? How severe will that be,
so we can understand how this impacts prices. Now in
this Super Bowl cycle super Bowl not super Bowl like football.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Like I said, we have two things going our way
right now. Number one, we have.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Global easing global liquidity. Okay, that's happening all over the world.
But the other thing we're looking at is rates, specifically
the two year rate. So we want to know is
when is liquidity rising and when our interest rates dropping
because when those two converge, that's what creates this super
Bowl cycle that we're talking about. Now, we also have
(05:38):
the fifty year cycle that has four distinct phases. I
talk about this all the time, and we know that
phase two of that is what's called the frenzy phase.
So we have the eruption phase that we have the
frenzy phase, and this is the biggest part of the move.
So we have the whole world easing, going global liquid,
adding global equidity. At the same time, we have the
FED and all the other central banks around the world
(05:59):
talk about lowering rates. And on top of that, we
have the largest part of the cycle all framing up
at the same time. Now that we have that, let's
go back and see where this could potentially take us. Okay,
so if we look at historical multipliers from the bear
market bottom, so bitcoin goes up and down. So from
the time it hits the bottom of the bear market
(06:20):
to the top of the next cycle, what do we
typically see. Well, in twenty thirteen, bitcoin's price was thirteen dollars.
How nces you wish it could go back in time
and just buy it at thirteen bucks. You buy it
at thirteen dollars. That was the TROW that was at
the bear market. At the top of that cycle, it
was eleven hundred dollars. Imagine buying it for thirteen right
into eleven hundred. That was an eighty five times return.
(06:41):
Now in that part that was really early days. There
wasn't a lot of buying. The asset was very small,
didn't take a lot of buying to get it up there,
so we had early retail. There was no liquidy constraints
in nothing like that. Then twenty seventeen, the next cycle,
the TROW the bottom the bear market of that cycle
was two hundred on from thirteen to eleven hundred and
(07:02):
then all the way back down to two hundred. This
is around when I started looking at this cycle. Twenty
fifteen is when I got in around three hundred, and
then we saw it go all the way to twenty thousand.
So from twenty from two hundred to twenty thousand, that
was a one hundred x return. Now during this time,
this was when we had the ico mania phase. We
(07:22):
had this very low base to start with. We also
saw the first sort of institutional adoption coming in where
we had the futures go live in twenty seventeen, and
we took it there.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Then we have twenty twenty one.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Now we saw in twenty twenty it fell all the
way down the trow the bottom of the bear market
around thirty one hundred, and then it went all the
way to sixty nine thousand, and that was a twenty.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Two x return.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
Now, this is when we started to get the institutions
were starting to come in, and it was also post COVID,
so we sort of had that big rush of liquid
that came in and maybe it got cut a little
bit short. Right, cycles have averages, and this one was
a much lower. The question is now our bottom was
sixteen thousand in this cycle in twenty twenty two, and
(08:04):
the question is how high will this go?
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Right, let's take it. Let's take a look at that.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
So we can only take a guess, but let's put
some ranges in it. Right, so we have an average,
but let's take a look at the ranges. So let's
just say if we apply the same multipliers to twenty
twenty two's bottom of sixteen thousand, how high could it
go based off of that? Well, if we only look
at an eight times, which is a very conservative, conservative
number as you saw we saw one hundred times before that.
(08:29):
That could push us up to about one hundred and
twenty eight thousand dollars, which means we might be getting
somewhat toppy. If we get more of like a twelve
x return, we could go up as high as one
hundred and ninety two thousand, and if we go up
a twenty x return, which is definitely optimistic, but that's
more like what we saw in earlier cycles, that could
put Bitcoin up to about three hundred and twenty thousand dollars. Now,
(08:50):
the question we have to ask ourselves is which one
do we think is likely to play out? And we
have to look at other indicators to try to figure
that out. All right now, to try to guess the future,
we look at a lot of indicators now, and what
I'm looking at far out in the future, I'm looking
at more fundamental stuff. The what I call, you know,
reading the leaves, the tea leaves, like technical analysis is
not going to tell us the future. We want to
(09:11):
look at the fundamentals. And of course the famous last
words are you know this time is different, but is
this time different?
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Let's take a look.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
So there's a lot of things that are different. Okay,
so we're not in twenty seventeen, we're not twenty twenty more.
This time, we know from the fifty year historical cycle,
the four phases. We went from the retail adoption to
now the institutional sovereign phase, so we know this is different.
So remember in the instant, the in the eruption phase,
the first phase, retail comes in, they buy up everything.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
But we're talking people with.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
Hundreds of dollars or thousands of dollars, maybe hundreds of
thousands of dollars. In the institutional in the sovereign phase,
we're talking about hundreds of billion dollars. A matter of fact,
year to date, just here in twenty twenty five, we've
had over almost eighty five billion dollars has gone into bitcoin.
Wall Street Institution place eighty five billion. So we're talking big,
(10:03):
big numbers.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
Another thing is that we've gone from having headwinds to tellwinds.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
What do I mean by that?
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Bitcoin since it's been around, has faced massive opposition. In
the early days, it wasn't really well known, so it
didn't have a lot of opposition. But the political regime,
the central bankers, the politicians have always been against it.
The Biden administration was very aggressively against it. As a
matter of fact, they practiced Operation Choke point two point zero,
(10:28):
where they basically blocked banks from being involved in bitcoin.
You couldn't even send money from your bank to bitcoin.
Elizabeth Warren ran on a platform literally called the anti
Crypto Army. So heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy headwinds obstacles. Right,
So bitcoin has gotten to where it's at in spite
(10:48):
of all of that, and all of a sudden that
switched like a one hundred and eighty degree turned. The
headwinds now became tailwinds. Now we have the entire United
States government opening up a strategic Bitcoin reserve, opening up
a sovereign wealth fund to buy bitcoin. You have the President,
the president's companies, the president's sons taking billions of dollars.
(11:09):
They dis announced to taking two point five billion dollars
to buy more bitcoin. So we went from having massive
headwinds to now having massive tellwins. So how much more
does that change the trajectory of where that goes in
the future. Now, the one thing we have to understand
about this is that because we now have what we
call the smart money, you and I were dumb. The
(11:29):
smart money is the institutions, right, the people that are
really connected politically also financially, they front run this. They're
already taking position, and so are you. But what happens
is when they take positions, then they it causes some
compression potentially, So we've gone from having massive headwinds to
now having massive tailwinds. We have huge amounts of money
(11:51):
coming in, but it could already be front running this
and it could potentially compress this. We have to take
all of that into consideration when we're trying to figure
out where this goes. But based off of this, what
should we be doing well? The first thing we would
do is I always built my whole career on a saying.
I think as Tony Robbins that said, success leaves clues.
So you find other people that are already successful, you
(12:13):
do about the same things, you get about the same results.
So when you see, you know, Larry Fink, the largest
asset manager in the world head a black rock saying
I bought bitcoin.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
When you have ray Alio, the large you.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Know, the founder of the largest hedge fund in the
world saying I bought bitcoin. You have a President Trump,
the founder or the leader of the free world saying
I'm buying billions of dollars in bitcoin, but your cousin,
or your hairstylist or your driver is telling you that
bitcoin is a Ponzi scam.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Who do you think you should listen to?
Speaker 1 (12:40):
Okay, So the first thing is we want to understand
we are not more connected or smarter than they are.
But what we don't want to do is we don't
want to be gambling. Okay, we don't want to be
jumping into this blindfolded. We want to understand what's going on,
what we expect to happen, and we want to position
ourselfs intelligently.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
So we want to.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Understand the signs that can tell us where we're at
in the cycle. Now, if we can understand this, then
you and I have the ability to front run the institution.
So instead of them get in front of us, we
have the ability to play the game with them. Now,
there's three pillars to understand this, all right. The first
one is there's macro cycles. Okay, it's already kind of
showed you that these are the liquidy levels. We looked
(13:20):
at those, the liquidy index, the M two global M
two growth, things like that, the two year yields. We've
talked about those, all right. The next thing we want
to look at is price trends. So I like to
look at breakouts.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
We talked about that.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
There's a couple that I like to look at. So
the first thing is one that you could just use.
This is very simple. This is a two hundred day
or two hundred weekly moving average. So that's the yellow
line right here. Anytime the bitcoin price gets down to
this level, these have always been historic buying opportunities. Like
imagine if you could have bought here, we're here and
(13:54):
ridden that up. You bought here and you rode that up.
You bought here and you.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Rode that up. Okay, So anytime it gets.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
Down to the level, those are historic buying opportunities, and
we know that we're nowhere near that level right now.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Okay. Now, another one we want to look at is
on chain data.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
The beauty of bitcoin is gives us this whole new
data set that we don't have with other assets.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Now, I'm going to show you three that I use.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
If you want to know the top five on chain
indicators that I use, then you should probably be watching.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
I'll go ahead. Let's just go put that video up
here or we'll.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Link it down in the show notes down below. But
three that we can look at real quickly are the
mv RV. This is the market value and the realized value.
And so we can see this is the bitcoin price
in the black line here, and the blue line is
the realized.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Cap market cap.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
But what this is right here is this is the
MVRV score. Now you can see when it peaks really high,
we're at the peak of a market, but right now
it's not peaking anywhere near high, which means we have
a lot of room to run in this market. I
like to look at that. Another one we look at
is this in UPL. This is the net unrealized profit
and loss. And this tells us sort of the motivations
(15:00):
or the emotions that people holding bitcoin might feel, and
they could tell us when they might want to be
taking profit. And again we can see when this spike's high,
the bitcoin market spikes high. When this spike's high, the
bitcoin right high. When this spiked, hie, the bitcoin price
was high. But here we're nowhere close, which means this
is probably going to run way up before we get
some convergence up there. So again we're nowhere near the top.
(15:23):
Another indicator that we look at is this sop R.
It's another easy one to understand. This is a spent
output profit ratio. So again when we understand where people
are at in profit, we can understand what their emotions
are and if they might be selling. So for example,
a lot of people, if they're underwater, they don't want
to sell right now because they want wait.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Till they get back in profit.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
But if they're sitting on lots of profits, they might
want to sell to pay off some debt, buy a
new house, or just take some cream off the top.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
You never go broke taking a profit.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
And what we can see is when it spikes really high,
we see bitcoin tops spoke right here, right here.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
But again we are very low. We're nowhere near the top.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
So what these indicat are telling us is that we're
nowhere near the top of the market cycle yet. So
we can see that we have the breakout in global equity.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
It just broke out. We're not the high part of it.
It's just taking off.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
We know that in previous periods like this, bitcoin has
gone up twenty times, eighty times, one hundred times, and
we can see that we're nowhere near the top of
that cycle right now. Okay, so what are the smart
moves to make in this environment. Well, again, we don't
want to go in blindly. We don't want to gamble here.
We want to look at data and position intelligently. But
(16:35):
we do understand that the clock is ticking. The breakout happened,
the quidy is rushing in. Bitcoin sat at all time highs,
and we know that these cycles don't last that long.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
So the clock is ticking now.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Most people they do it the wrong way, which is
why most people are average. They're not the one percent
that are wealthy. And they chase price. So what they're
doing is they're looking at the price. Well, Bitcoin right
now at the time of this video is don't one
hundred and five thousand. It's very well expensive compared to
what expensive compared to when it was two hundred buckssive
expensive compared to where it could be in a year
(17:07):
or five years from now. So they're chasing price. What
smart money does is they chase liquidity. We understand that
when liquidity, when the money supply increases, asset prices go
up as well. We want the lead indicator so we
can see liquidity breaking out and about to rise. We
know that asset prices will continue to rise on a
(17:28):
three month lag. Okay, now we also understand that the Super.
Speaker 2 (17:31):
Bowl signal is very rare.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
When we see liquidity breakout, we see two year rates
starting to drop, and where we see we're in the
fifty year cycle, all three of those converging is extremely rare, rare,
and it is extremely powerful. So what winners do is
they prepare. They don't chase the price. They look at
the data and they prepare and they position.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
Now, if you
Speaker 1 (17:53):
Want to know more about understanding where the price is
going by let's say twenty thirty, twenty forty, in twenty fifty,
I have a video for you might want to watch
this video right here and hope to see over them
The Super Bowl signal that only triggered twice in bitcoin's
history just flashed again.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Now.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Each time this has happened in twenty seventeen and twenty twenty,
bitcoin went on an exponential run, and based on the data,
this time could even be way more powerful. Now most
people won't realize what's happening until it's too late. But
if you understand this signal right now, you can position
yourself before the crowd. Now, I'm Mark Moss. Since twenty sixteen,
(00:26):
I've helped millions navigate bitcoin.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Cycles using data not hype.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
I'm a partner at a leading bitcoin venture fund, and
I advise companies building the future of finance on bitcoin. Now,
in this video, I'm going to walk you through the
same system, the same signals that we use to make decisions,
and how you can use them too.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
So let's go.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
Okay, So we are talking about a bull signal. We're
talking about a signal change. There's times and periods where
things change, and of course you have to change your
investing strategy.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Now, there's one chart that's commonly ignored when we talk
about this.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
So hear me talk a lot about debt debt cycles,
we talk about M two money supply, things like that,
and a lot of people think about this right here, Okay,
this is the US M two.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Now, of course this makes sense because.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
The US dollar is the reserve currency of the world,
and so if we look at the USM two, the
money supply, then we can see that as this goes up,
then of course asset prices go up with it. As
a matter of fact, the S and P five hundred
moves about in lockstep with this. The national median home
price moves pretty close in lockstep with this. But when
it comes to more international assets like bitcoin, like gold
(01:38):
and other commodities, we want to be looking at another chart,
and we're talking about the Global M two, not USM
two Global M two or global Liquidity index. Now I
make a bunch of videos about this, and there's a
lot of ways to break this down. But if we
look at this very simply, we can look at global
M two and we can understand.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
If it's growing or rising.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
So these greens are when it's expanding rapidly. The red
down here is when it's declining rapidly. But of course
it's always going up. So what we can see here
is the green is the year over year growth. The
blue line that we have here is the money supply,
so it's always going up and we can see how
fast it's expanding. And then what we have overlaid here
(02:19):
is the red line is the bitcoin price. And now the
reason why I'm showing you this is because what happens,
like almost every chart, is we have periods where it
goes up and then it consolidates, and then it has
a breakout, and then it consolidates and it has a breakout,
sort of like our life. Now, what we can see
in this chart is there's a time where this M
too money supply hits a consolidation and then it breaks
(02:40):
out and it goes higher, and then it consolidates and
it goes way higher, and then it consolidates and it
goes higher. It's important to understand this because it's what
pushes asset price is higher. We can see in a
chart here. This is from real vision over here. Everyone
loves to correct me in the in the comments about that.
(03:01):
Of course it has it right here on the chart. Okay,
what we can see here is that global M two supply,
which is the black line overlaid with the bitcoin price,
which is the pink line.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Now, this has.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
About a twelve week lag, so it doesn't move day
to day, right one to one. But what we can
see is they're matched almost perfectly. And when we go
into a consolidation pattern and then we see M two
break out with a lag, what do you think happens next?
You can be an elementary kid and understand the pattern,
and of course that is bitcoin breaking out. Now, this
(03:34):
has been a major predictor of every big Bitcoin Bowl
run that we've had twenty seventeen, twenty twenty, and it
just triggered again. Now the question is how big and
how fast is the move up in liquidity and what
will that mean for Bitcoin's price when we look at
it from historical angles, And don't worry, I got you
(03:54):
covered on that.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Let's break that down.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
So the first thing we want to know is that
in these past global liquidity breakouts, what's happened.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Let's take a look.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
We can see that in twenty seventeen we saw about
a twenty x return. Now again just going back to this,
we see the explosive move up, the consolidation, the explosives
move up, the consolidation, the explosive move up and the
consolidation Now if you can zoom in editor zoom in,
(04:24):
you can see there is a breakout forming. The question
then is how big and how fast and how severe
will that move be? Okay, we're gonna break that down
for you. I just wanted to kind of show you
what that looks like. Now again, if we overlay that,
we can see that in past breakouts, like right here,
we had a pretty big move. Right this was pretty big,
(04:45):
but in this breakout you can see how much bigger
this move was.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Why well, because.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
That was during the pandemic, right the entire world went
into a massive liquidity easing cycle because you know, they
shut the whole world down.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
We had to make up for that.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
And so what we really want to understand is how
big will this move be? How severe will that be,
so we can understand how this impacts prices. Now in
this Super Bowl cycle super Bowl not super Bowl like football.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Like I said, we have two things going our way
right now. Number one, we have.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Global easing global liquidity. Okay, that's happening all over the world.
But the other thing we're looking at is rates, specifically
the two year rate. So we want to know is
when is liquidity rising and when our interest rates dropping
because when those two converge, that's what creates this super
Bowl cycle that we're talking about. Now, we also have
(05:38):
the fifty year cycle that has four distinct phases. I
talk about this all the time, and we know that
phase two of that is what's called the frenzy phase.
So we have the eruption phase that we have the
frenzy phase, and this is the biggest part of the move.
So we have the whole world easing, going global liquid,
adding global equidity. At the same time, we have the
FED and all the other central banks around the world
(05:59):
talk about lowering rates. And on top of that, we
have the largest part of the cycle all framing up
at the same time. Now that we have that, let's
go back and see where this could potentially take us. Okay,
so if we look at historical multipliers from the bear
market bottom, so bitcoin goes up and down. So from
the time it hits the bottom of the bear market
(06:20):
to the top of the next cycle, what do we
typically see. Well, in twenty thirteen, bitcoin's price was thirteen dollars.
How nces you wish it could go back in time
and just buy it at thirteen bucks. You buy it
at thirteen dollars. That was the TROW that was at
the bear market. At the top of that cycle, it
was eleven hundred dollars. Imagine buying it for thirteen right
into eleven hundred. That was an eighty five times return.
(06:41):
Now in that part that was really early days. There
wasn't a lot of buying. The asset was very small,
didn't take a lot of buying to get it up there,
so we had early retail. There was no liquidy constraints
in nothing like that. Then twenty seventeen, the next cycle,
the TROW the bottom the bear market of that cycle
was two hundred on from thirteen to eleven hundred and
(07:02):
then all the way back down to two hundred. This
is around when I started looking at this cycle. Twenty
fifteen is when I got in around three hundred, and
then we saw it go all the way to twenty thousand.
So from twenty from two hundred to twenty thousand, that
was a one hundred x return. Now during this time,
this was when we had the ico mania phase. We
(07:22):
had this very low base to start with. We also
saw the first sort of institutional adoption coming in where
we had the futures go live in twenty seventeen, and
we took it there.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Then we have twenty twenty one.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Now we saw in twenty twenty it fell all the
way down the trow the bottom of the bear market
around thirty one hundred, and then it went all the
way to sixty nine thousand, and that was a twenty.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Two x return.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
Now, this is when we started to get the institutions
were starting to come in, and it was also post COVID,
so we sort of had that big rush of liquid
that came in and maybe it got cut a little
bit short. Right, cycles have averages, and this one was
a much lower. The question is now our bottom was
sixteen thousand in this cycle in twenty twenty two, and
(08:04):
the question is how high will this go?
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Right, let's take it. Let's take a look at that.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
So we can only take a guess, but let's put
some ranges in it. Right, so we have an average,
but let's take a look at the ranges. So let's
just say if we apply the same multipliers to twenty
twenty two's bottom of sixteen thousand, how high could it
go based off of that? Well, if we only look
at an eight times, which is a very conservative, conservative
number as you saw we saw one hundred times before that.
(08:29):
That could push us up to about one hundred and
twenty eight thousand dollars, which means we might be getting
somewhat toppy. If we get more of like a twelve
x return, we could go up as high as one
hundred and ninety two thousand, and if we go up
a twenty x return, which is definitely optimistic, but that's
more like what we saw in earlier cycles, that could
put Bitcoin up to about three hundred and twenty thousand dollars. Now,
(08:50):
the question we have to ask ourselves is which one
do we think is likely to play out? And we
have to look at other indicators to try to figure
that out. All right now, to try to guess the future,
we look at a lot of indicators now, and what
I'm looking at far out in the future, I'm looking
at more fundamental stuff. The what I call, you know,
reading the leaves, the tea leaves, like technical analysis is
not going to tell us the future. We want to
(09:11):
look at the fundamentals. And of course the famous last
words are you know this time is different, but is
this time different?
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Let's take a look.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
So there's a lot of things that are different. Okay,
so we're not in twenty seventeen, we're not twenty twenty more.
This time, we know from the fifty year historical cycle,
the four phases. We went from the retail adoption to
now the institutional sovereign phase, so we know this is different.
So remember in the instant, the in the eruption phase,
the first phase, retail comes in, they buy up everything.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
But we're talking people with.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
Hundreds of dollars or thousands of dollars, maybe hundreds of
thousands of dollars. In the institutional in the sovereign phase,
we're talking about hundreds of billion dollars. A matter of fact,
year to date, just here in twenty twenty five, we've
had over almost eighty five billion dollars has gone into bitcoin.
Wall Street Institution place eighty five billion. So we're talking big,
(10:03):
big numbers.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
Another thing is that we've gone from having headwinds to tellwinds.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
What do I mean by that?
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Bitcoin since it's been around, has faced massive opposition. In
the early days, it wasn't really well known, so it
didn't have a lot of opposition. But the political regime,
the central bankers, the politicians have always been against it.
The Biden administration was very aggressively against it. As a
matter of fact, they practiced Operation Choke point two point zero,
(10:28):
where they basically blocked banks from being involved in bitcoin.
You couldn't even send money from your bank to bitcoin.
Elizabeth Warren ran on a platform literally called the anti
Crypto Army. So heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy headwinds obstacles. Right,
So bitcoin has gotten to where it's at in spite
(10:48):
of all of that, and all of a sudden that
switched like a one hundred and eighty degree turned. The
headwinds now became tailwinds. Now we have the entire United
States government opening up a strategic Bitcoin reserve, opening up
a sovereign wealth fund to buy bitcoin. You have the President,
the president's companies, the president's sons taking billions of dollars.
(11:09):
They dis announced to taking two point five billion dollars
to buy more bitcoin. So we went from having massive
headwinds to now having massive tellwins. So how much more
does that change the trajectory of where that goes in
the future. Now, the one thing we have to understand
about this is that because we now have what we
call the smart money, you and I were dumb. The
(11:29):
smart money is the institutions, right, the people that are
really connected politically also financially, they front run this. They're
already taking position, and so are you. But what happens
is when they take positions, then they it causes some
compression potentially, So we've gone from having massive headwinds to
now having massive tailwinds. We have huge amounts of money
(11:51):
coming in, but it could already be front running this
and it could potentially compress this. We have to take
all of that into consideration when we're trying to figure
out where this goes. But based off of this, what
should we be doing well? The first thing we would
do is I always built my whole career on a saying.
I think as Tony Robbins that said, success leaves clues.
So you find other people that are already successful, you
(12:13):
do about the same things, you get about the same results.
So when you see, you know, Larry Fink, the largest
asset manager in the world head a black rock saying
I bought bitcoin.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
When you have ray Alio, the large you.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Know, the founder of the largest hedge fund in the
world saying I bought bitcoin. You have a President Trump,
the founder or the leader of the free world saying
I'm buying billions of dollars in bitcoin, but your cousin,
or your hairstylist or your driver is telling you that
bitcoin is a Ponzi scam.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Who do you think you should listen to?
Speaker 1 (12:40):
Okay, So the first thing is we want to understand
we are not more connected or smarter than they are.
But what we don't want to do is we don't
want to be gambling. Okay, we don't want to be
jumping into this blindfolded. We want to understand what's going on,
what we expect to happen, and we want to position
ourselfs intelligently.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
So we want to.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Understand the signs that can tell us where we're at
in the cycle. Now, if we can understand this, then
you and I have the ability to front run the institution.
So instead of them get in front of us, we
have the ability to play the game with them. Now,
there's three pillars to understand this, all right. The first
one is there's macro cycles. Okay, it's already kind of
showed you that these are the liquidy levels. We looked
(13:20):
at those, the liquidy index, the M two global M
two growth, things like that, the two year yields. We've
talked about those, all right. The next thing we want
to look at is price trends. So I like to
look at breakouts.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
We talked about that.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
There's a couple that I like to look at. So
the first thing is one that you could just use.
This is very simple. This is a two hundred day
or two hundred weekly moving average. So that's the yellow
line right here. Anytime the bitcoin price gets down to
this level, these have always been historic buying opportunities. Like
imagine if you could have bought here, we're here and
(13:54):
ridden that up. You bought here and you rode that up.
You bought here and you.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Rode that up. Okay, So anytime it gets.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
Down to the level, those are historic buying opportunities, and
we know that we're nowhere near that level right now.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Okay. Now, another one we want to look at is
on chain data.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
The beauty of bitcoin is gives us this whole new
data set that we don't have with other assets.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Now, I'm going to show you three that I use.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
If you want to know the top five on chain
indicators that I use, then you should probably be watching.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
I'll go ahead. Let's just go put that video up
here or we'll.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Link it down in the show notes down below. But
three that we can look at real quickly are the
mv RV. This is the market value and the realized value.
And so we can see this is the bitcoin price
in the black line here, and the blue line is
the realized.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Cap market cap.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
But what this is right here is this is the
MVRV score. Now you can see when it peaks really high,
we're at the peak of a market, but right now
it's not peaking anywhere near high, which means we have
a lot of room to run in this market. I
like to look at that. Another one we look at
is this in UPL. This is the net unrealized profit
and loss. And this tells us sort of the motivations
(15:00):
or the emotions that people holding bitcoin might feel, and
they could tell us when they might want to be
taking profit. And again we can see when this spike's high,
the bitcoin market spikes high. When this spike's high, the
bitcoin right high. When this spiked, hie, the bitcoin price
was high. But here we're nowhere close, which means this
is probably going to run way up before we get
some convergence up there. So again we're nowhere near the top.
(15:23):
Another indicator that we look at is this sop R.
It's another easy one to understand. This is a spent
output profit ratio. So again when we understand where people
are at in profit, we can understand what their emotions
are and if they might be selling. So for example,
a lot of people, if they're underwater, they don't want
to sell right now because they want wait.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Till they get back in profit.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
But if they're sitting on lots of profits, they might
want to sell to pay off some debt, buy a
new house, or just take some cream off the top.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
You never go broke taking a profit.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
And what we can see is when it spikes really high,
we see bitcoin tops spoke right here, right here.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
But again we are very low. We're nowhere near the top.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
So what these indicat are telling us is that we're
nowhere near the top of the market cycle yet. So
we can see that we have the breakout in global equity.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
It just broke out. We're not the high part of it.
It's just taking off.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
We know that in previous periods like this, bitcoin has
gone up twenty times, eighty times, one hundred times, and
we can see that we're nowhere near the top of
that cycle right now. Okay, so what are the smart
moves to make in this environment. Well, again, we don't
want to go in blindly. We don't want to gamble here.
We want to look at data and position intelligently. But
(16:35):
we do understand that the clock is ticking. The breakout happened,
the quidy is rushing in. Bitcoin sat at all time highs,
and we know that these cycles don't last that long.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
So the clock is ticking now.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Most people they do it the wrong way, which is
why most people are average. They're not the one percent
that are wealthy. And they chase price. So what they're
doing is they're looking at the price. Well, Bitcoin right
now at the time of this video is don't one
hundred and five thousand. It's very well expensive compared to
what expensive compared to when it was two hundred buckssive
expensive compared to where it could be in a year
(17:07):
or five years from now. So they're chasing price. What
smart money does is they chase liquidity. We understand that
when liquidity, when the money supply increases, asset prices go
up as well. We want the lead indicator so we
can see liquidity breaking out and about to rise. We
know that asset prices will continue to rise on a
(17:28):
three month lag. Okay, now we also understand that the Super.
Speaker 2 (17:31):
Bowl signal is very rare.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
When we see liquidity breakout, we see two year rates
starting to drop, and where we see we're in the
fifty year cycle, all three of those converging is extremely rare, rare,
and it is extremely powerful. So what winners do is
they prepare. They don't chase the price. They look at
the data and they prepare and they position.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
Now, if you
Speaker 1 (17:53):
Want to know more about understanding where the price is
going by let's say twenty thirty, twenty forty, in twenty fifty,
I have a video for you might want to watch
this video right here and hope to see over them
Host
Mark Moss
Show Links
The Mark Moss ShowMark's WebsitePopular Podcasts
Fudd Around And Find Out
UConn basketball star Azzi Fudd brings her championship swag to iHeart Women’s Sports with Fudd Around and Find Out, a weekly podcast that takes fans along for the ride as Azzi spends her final year of college trying to reclaim the National Championship and prepare to be a first round WNBA draft pick. Ever wonder what it’s like to be a world-class athlete in the public spotlight while still managing schoolwork, friendships and family time? It’s time to Fudd Around and Find Out!
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!