11/29/24 - Tampa Bay Downs Races 2, 4, and 8

Nate has a couple of long shots to look at this Black Friday! Good luck!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, good morning everybody. It is Friday, November twenty ninth,
another morning up in Wisconsin for me. I am Nate Mets,
and welcome to Mets Bets. Today we are taking a
look at actually a couple of races on the card
at Tampa Bay Downs this Friday. I did not think
that we were going to have racing on Friday. I
don't know how I got that schedule wrong. But when

(00:21):
I tuned in on Wednesday and had another pretty good day,
another positive ROI for my Mets Bets picks. But with
that I realized that we had racing this weekend. We
have racing Friday and Saturday. So let's dig right into it.
Let's get after it and talk about a few long
shots on the card that I like, and then one
kind of more logical choice that I'm interested in. The

(00:44):
first I want to get the long shots out of
the way first, so we might bounce around a little
bit on this card. But let's start with Race four.
And originally I liked a horse called Whiskey or Wine,
the number six horse in the race, big time dropping class.
I thought had run pretty decently in races prior. Ran
at Keelan last time and was just totally outmatched. So

(01:04):
I was really digging into that one. But since that
horse scratched, I want to take a different approach here,
and I want to have a quick conversation about a
strategy that I like to look at when gambling, especially
on horses, And I'm looking at the number ten, Go Woke,
Go broke. Now, hopefully that wasn't, you know, thrown around
too much at the Thanksgiving tables. Hopefully everyone had a nice,

(01:25):
politics free Thanksgiving. Probably not now that I think about it,
But number ten, Go Woke, Go broke fifteen to one
and a horse that's going to be forwardly placed. Now
on paper, this horse looks slow. It looks a little
bit slow, in my opinion, too slow probably to win
this race and probably should be fifteen to one off
of those ratings alone. But the horse is dropping in

(01:48):
class significantly. I mean, Gulf Stream is generally a tougher
track than Tampa, is the way that I like to
look at it. And was racing for more money than
a main claiming race, you know, racing at a twelve
five main claimer meaning for twelve five hundred dollars now
dropping to a ten thousand dollars rating. Also was only
running at what five and a half fur lung six

(02:09):
for lung seven fur lungs and not really putting it
all together and stretches out. Now it's going two turns.
This gelding is looking for more distance. I guess that's
what the new trainer, Maria Bauersak is looking to do,
and maybe that gives it some improvement. And on top
of that, it had a nice workout at Tampa back

(02:30):
on November twenty third. I just think that for a
horse that has a lot of things that are changing
around it, if it's a short price, that might make
me nervous, but at a long shot, I think that
that could be actually kind of interesting and could be
an opportunity to score. It's not going to be an
easy win. Obviously, there's some nice horses in here in
this main claiming race, but I think that go broke again.

(02:54):
It's a ten thousand maiin claiming race. Crazy things can
happen sometimes, and with a lot of things changing, solid trainer,
I think that this horse has definitely a chance at
least to outrun its odds and possibly score. On Friday. Okay, now,
I probably took a little too much time on that actually.
But let's switch over now to one of the final

(03:15):
races on the car. We're going to race eight way
way way down there, and it's another look at another
long shot. I like Endless Fashion. Endless Fashion is a
horse that really had no chance. It's a two year
old Philly had no chance running for inn one hundred
and fifty thousand dollars making claiming race at Keenland back

(03:35):
in October. And look the Keenland. Those two year old races,
especially in the spring, but in the fall two are
very very difficult. There are a ton of horses. You
get bounced around a lot. It's not easy. And Sarah
Has was the jockey she stays on down here in Tampa.
I'm excited that she gets another crack at it. And
Sarah Has she seems to be good for an upset.

(03:56):
She's already got two very very nice wins this season,
both of which were at very long odds. I don't
know if Endless Fashion goes off at thirty to one,
maybe a little bit lower. I'm hoping it goes off
at fifty to one. And I think that in this
two year old field of Phillies we're taking a look
at thirty to one on the morning line again, that's
race eight, horse number two, and now we will start

(04:17):
taking a look at the kind of horse that I
think is going to be a likely winner on today's card.
And we have to go all the way back to
the beginning of the races. We're going to race number two.
Sorry I told that we were going to be jumping
around just a little bit, but we're going to El Principito.
That's the number four horse in race two. El Principita

(04:38):
ran in the Sam F. Davis last year, was on
the Kentucky Derby Trail, has been up and down, ran
a ninety prisonet speed figure at golf Stream back in
June of this year, and I think is just now
at a more realistic spot. This is a nice racehorse.
I in for a twenty five thousand dollars tag. I

(04:58):
just think that El Principito is taken on so much
tougher competition than what he's going to be taking on today.
I think this horse, with Adamar Santos aboard, is going
to be very, very tough and with other decent horses
in this field, I mean Rocket Dragon kind of bounces
off the page a little bit with Sammy Camacho. I'm
sure a lot of people are going to bet on

(05:18):
that horse, but Rocket Dragon hasn't taken on horses that
are as tough in my opinion as El Principito. He's
more battle tested, and I think that he truly is
going to be ready to roll now dropping in class
yet again. Rocket Dragon was taking on some okay horses
at Presquele in an allowance race last time out, but
that was on the all weather. I think that you

(05:40):
get him on dirt all things even, I think El
Principito is the one to get it done. So a
little longer of an episode today, but what six minutes
of your time. Hopefully it wasn't too bad. I appreciate everyone.
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and I'll be
back here on Saturday with more Mets Bets action. Looking
at that Saturday card. Heading back to Ohio tomorrow on Saturday,

(06:03):
so I'm hoping to catch that, maybe listen to the
races while I'm on the road, and I hope everyone
has a yeah, a great Black Friday. Hopefully we can
win some money and then I can go spend it
at whatever store you choose, see everyone and good luck.