October 27, 2025 • 47 mins
The NFL season is in full swing as Week 9 kicks off this Thursday! How should you approach betting this week? Join Kelly Stewart and Teddy Covers for The Opening Line Report as we dissect the NFL Week 9 betting markets opening betting lines!
Intro 00:00
Week 8 Recap – Favorites Galore 00:45
Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins 3:18
Chicago Bears vs Cincinnati Bengals 6:09
Emergency Betting Alert: San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants 10:29
Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots 14:45
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers 18:45
Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers 23:00
Emergency Betting Alert: Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions 26:37
Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans 29:26
Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans 32:34
Emergency Betting Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders 34:42
New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams 36:20
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills 39:27
Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders 41:14
Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys 43:36
Intro 00:00
Week 8 Recap – Favorites Galore 00:45
Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins 3:18
Chicago Bears vs Cincinnati Bengals 6:09
Emergency Betting Alert: San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants 10:29
Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots 14:45
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers 18:45
Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers 23:00
Emergency Betting Alert: Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions 26:37
Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans 29:26
Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans 32:34
Emergency Betting Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders 34:42
New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams 36:20
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills 39:27
Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders 41:14
Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys 43:36
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
And to the opening line report, Kelly Stewart here on
this beautiful Monday morning, we're gonna bring in Teddy Covers
right away because we're gonna do a little quicker format.
Teddy and I are listening to the comments, we're listening
to YouTube, and so we're gonna kind of change things
up just.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
A little bit. Teddy.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
If you blindly bet the favorite in the over yesterday,
you went astounding sixteen to three and one.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
One hundred dollars.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Better to be up twelve, one hundred and seventy dollars,
And that means Kelly had a bad day. And I'll
say this, the only exciting game was Jets Bengals, and
it wasn't that exciting for me because I had Bengals
in Survivor.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Sure, Sure, the Bengals lose, the Falcons lose carnage in Survivor.
And they were the only two favorites all day not
to cover favorites going, including the Chargers on Thursday night
ten and two. For the week overs nine and one.
I counted two pushes with the overs, and my number
slightly in yours, but Houston, San Frian landed forty one.
Miami Atlanta landed forty four. The Ravens Bears landed right
(00:58):
in the middle, which again as another not great scenario.
Four sports books could have gone over everything, but Chicago
couldn't punch it in from a first and goal late
in the game. And of course, when you have all
the favorites cashing and all the overscashing, it's a bad
combo for sportsbook Another good week for the public, another
bad week for wise guys. I had my worst week
(01:19):
of the year in the NFL. It was not a
good day for the clients yesterday. I got one job
be decent and I stunk. And you never feel good
on a Monday morning when your plays stink. That being said,
ten of the eleven games yesterday were recited by double
digit margins. Seven were decided by eighteen points or more.
If you were betting NFL teasers yesterday, long teasers, any
(01:42):
kind of teasers you wanted, and we'll call it an
abject disaster. Bad day for teaser betters, bad day for
the sportsbooks.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Yeah, I'm very glad I ended up saying off those
teasers this last week.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Sadi, You and I welcome in guys.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
If you got a comment, please drop it in We
appreciate all of you hanging out with us here live,
especially those wager Talk insiders.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
So Jenny Monday Night Football.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Let everybody know where they can watch your video really
quickly on the Commanders at the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Yeah, I have a video up for Commanders and the Chiefs.
You can find it on my homepage wt dot Buzz,
Backslash TC, w right break down the game. You can
always find it on YouTube and of course the wager
Talk YouTube channel. We're approaching a quarter million followers now.
If you haven't done so, follow the channel. I understand
my pick's stunky yesterday, but you know what the analysis
(02:31):
today is going to be spot on this show. We
still you know, we get mad for a little while,
we have our moment, we sit down and get to work,
and that's what every better needs to be doing, good
day or bad. But anyhow, visit the page wt dot Buzz,
Backslash TC, check out the YouTube channel wager Talk TV,
and of course subscribe if you have not done so already,
(02:52):
get those instant alerts every time these videos go live.
And this time of year is a time of year
where you need to be subscribed to this channel. There
is so much freak content we're putting out every single day.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Kel absolutely Teddy.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
I got my pin and paper ready because this show
is all about information, getting the best of it, and
that is what is so important to me. I did
not get the best of the information on this Ravens game,
but somehow I still got the cover. Last week, Baltimore
with Tyler Huntley looked decent. Maybe the Bears looked bad,
(03:24):
But let's talk about this Thursday night football game. Ravens
Dolphins finally got a nice win as well.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
Sure look aheadline. Yeah, two teams that desperately needed a
good performance both came through with winning showings. Look aheadline.
Here was Baltimore seven and a half. That was with
Lamar Jackson line fifty and a half my powering number,
and I continue to be I continue to rate Baltimore
a little bit higher than I think I should and
(03:51):
still be below the market number on Baltimore. My powering
number came Baltimore six and a half. The markets are
seven and a half and fifty to open and they're
set one and a half and fifty this morning, so
we really haven't seen any movement on this game so far.
As for Baltimore, I mean yards per play against Chicago.
The final score of clop side of the yards for
play six point overs to six point zero. But what
did the Ravens do? No turnovers, one hundred and seventy
(04:14):
seven rushing yards at five point two yards per carry
Tyler Huntley only five incomplete passes in that ball game.
Now we do expect Lamar Jackson back for Thursday Night football.
They had lost eleven of their last thirteen without Jackson
in the lineup, managed to win one yesterday. You know,
fullback Patrick riccard quote. Getting a lot more guys back
healthy and playing just feels like a fresh new start
(04:36):
for us. Right now we're one and oh and of
course let's not forget Baltimore despite their record. After Pittsburgh
losing yesterday, they're the favorites in the AFC North again,
and they're likely to be favored in each of their
next seven ballgames barring disaster. As for Miami, you know,
I thought they quit on their coach and quit on
(04:56):
their season. Well apparently not so much, Mike McDaniel. Anytime
you have an embarrassing outing as a team, you can
go one or two ways. I didn't see the negative
way as being something that was on the table for
this locker room. What they do, no turnovers, thirty seven
minutes of possession, complete domination as a touchdown underdog from
the opening kick in that contest. Two I had thrown
(05:18):
three picks in each of the previous two games and
was added to the injury report before the game because
he was sick. He was really good at that bug.
In his quote, probably one of the worst experiences I've
had in TI, the waking up and having that on
game day being sick. He ended up wearing a wiser
JA advisor JAYL. N. Wattall quote, two is not wanting
to be rattled easily, extremely confident, and we're extremely confident
(05:39):
in him. Baltimore very much a team that the betting
markets expect to be right in the playoff mix despite
their two and six record Miami at this number, the
betting marks are saying, yeah, well you beat Atlanta. Maybe
they're issues in Atlanta. There's not sold on the offense
just yet.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
I'm not sure I'm sold in the doins either, And
two other teams I'm not sold on that coincidentally get
to play each other this week. We have the Bears
tank it on the Cincinnati Bengals. We mentioned the Bengals
off that ugly Jets loss. Kind of talk to me
about Caleb Williams and the Bears and where they go
forward from here. I'm feeling all right about my under
eight and a half wins ticket right now, Teddy.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
So the lookhead line for Chicago, there were minus one
and a half's out there for the Bears. There were
pick'ems in the on the Look head line as well.
Total was forty eight and a half. Note that forty
eight and a half My powering number comes Bears minus
a half. I usually write that as pickslash one. That
means it's a half point difference by the Chicago minus
one is my powerting opened last night Chicago minus one
(06:43):
and a half, fifty one and a half. We've seen
nothing but over money. Still bears fifty one, and I
started still bears minus one and a half, but now
we're seeing fifty two and a half's, even fifty threes
out there. I thought about emergency betting alert this total,
but honestly, I think that you can still find fifty
one and a half's right now if you shop around.
There's not enough of them for me to say that's
(07:04):
widely available. But if you like this over, I would
find one of the places where it's still fifty one
and a half for fifty two, and bet it now
we are seeing fifty two and a half. Fifty three
is a prevailing numbers. What happened with the Bears yet? Yeah,
I mean your Bears just look season win totals. One
of the beauty about them is you're gonna have bad
starts and things can turn mid season. I don't I'm
(07:26):
not selling the Bears after yesterday's showing. They played equal
until the yards per play with Baltimore. They just weren't efficient.
They had one of those days. They had eleven penalties.
After forcing fifteen turnovers of the previous four weeks, the
defense didn't force any yesterday. They went one of three
in the red zone on scoring one touchdown to the
three chances, and they really had a chance out gaining
(07:47):
the Ravens one hundred and twenty five to eight in
the first quarter and settled for two field goals, And
that was the difference in the game. If they're up
fourteen to nothing, it's a very different game in that contest.
Caleb Williams, talking about the penalties. Quote, we got to
emphasize it more. That's what it comes down to. We
have to figure out a solution. We have to figure
it out a final solution because it's hurting us as
an offense. Worth noting from an injury standpoint, Chicago missing
(08:09):
a pair of starting defensive backs yesterday, Tyrek Stevenson and
Kyler Gordon, and during the game they lost a pair
of defensive linemen in Dominic Robinson and Shamir Turner Shamar Turner,
so that could be as many as four starting defenders
from the line and the secondary might not play in
this one against the Bengals team that just hung thirty
eight against the Jets yesterday and still found a way
(08:31):
to lose. The Jets stayed over five hundred yards only
the second time in twenty five years the Jets have
gained over five and twenty five over five hundred yards.
And of course, that game against Zach Taylor's Bengals, you know,
and I mean, there were some positive signs. They had
two rushing touchdowns in the first seven weeks of the season.
They had three by the midway point of the fourth
quarter of that ballgame. But I didn't like the quotes
(08:54):
after the game. I really didn't, you know, Jamar Chase.
This game should have been over when it was sixteen
to thirty one, twenty eight, whatever the hell they had,
it should have been over. It should have been over.
That's throwing the defense under the bus. Zach Taylor humbling
for us certainly. Quote I think someone needs to step
up and leave the group. That's what I'm waiting to see.
Someone could step up and leave the group and take
(09:15):
some accountability over there and get this thing going the
right way. That's the coach throwing the defense under the bus.
Can't playing black O he don thirty eight points on
a week offense flacko no picks, one sack, that had
one hundred and eighty one rushing are at seven point
nine yards per carry. But now they're one in five
straight up the last six the defense has allowed forty
(09:35):
twenty eight, thirty seven, twenty seven, thirty one, and thirty
nine points in those games, not a single Stiller showing.
I guess it wasn't a quarter of problem, you know,
Lou and Arumo last year versus Al Golden. This year
defense was not good. Last year Notre eight defense was
good at Rumo's defense in Indy is good this year.
I know by the way Trey Hendrickson hurt again. He
(09:57):
hobbled off the field in the first half. It did
not return in that ball game. So since he in
that sense a difficult team, and of course you don't
have to like points them here, but that was a
tough loss. That was his loss. That has a petition
that change the trajectory of a team season. I worry
about the Bengals this week. I think the Bears are
favorite for good reason.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
All Right, we don't like those absolute catastrophic losses. And
I don't know if the Giants have a catastrophic loss
in losing cam Skataboo, but let's just say it's not
good when Jackson Dart is basically squinting in pain on
the sideline that his best friend and running back is
going to have to have ankle surgery, and I believe
he did.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Last night.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
San Francisco kind of seemed like that square play yesterday
Teddy that everybody wanted to tease, everybody wanted it involved in,
and that Saxon's tried to blow it there late. But
San Francisco, no avail. They're now favorites on the road
at New York.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
Yeah, Texans tried to blow it a couple times in
that game with san Fran yesterday, just wasn't good enough
to take advantage. That being said, it is time for
our first emergency betting alert of the morning. Like over
bet it right now, let me talk about it. San
Fran open look head lines niners that were two and
a half and minus three total forty five and a
(11:14):
half as a look head line open last night two
and a half's last three forty seven the total. What
are we looking at right now? Two and a half
mostly out there, there are still some threes. I'm seeing
forty seven and a halfs I'm seeing forty eight, so
I'm seeing forty eight and a half, so I'm seeing
forty nine and a half out there. You can still
find forty seven and a half forty eight if you
(11:36):
like the over, I do that sooner rather than later.
The markets saying Giants are an over team right now,
and I don't necessarily disagree with that. My powerating for
the game is only two san Fran West Coast team
traveling east for the early start game, and I wasn't
sure how much to downgrade the Giants with the Scatboy injury.
I really, I really wasn't you know. You know, they're
(11:56):
not going to give them a win many games. We
can give up thirty three points in the fourth quarter
like the last week, and they're not going to win
many games when you give up tour in seventy six
rushing yards on eight point four yards per carry and
allowed two different one hundred yard rushers. You know, and
of course it's the team that was thirty first in
the NFL coming into yesterday's game in yards per carry allowed.
So you can run the football on the Giants. I
(12:17):
expect San Franz to do a fair bit of that
this week. I mean they were in the fourth quarter,
second and twenty six and then they immediately allowed his
twenty nine yard run. That was just the state of
the Giants run defense yesterday. The defensive line hasn't been
that bad all year, but it was pretty lousy yesterday.
And of course they lost a couple of cornerbacks with injuries.
You talked about the Scataboo injury, and of course they're
(12:39):
already operating without Elik Neighbors. That matters. You know. They
were held to less than hundred yards until the last
two drives when the game was out of hand. Darius
Slayton quote, it's really hard to see. Young guy is
having a heck of a year, someone who's a unifying
personality and energetic personality. It's sad to see him go down.
Running backs don't matter in the NFL tyrone trace see
(13:00):
Devin singletary. If you just fine in replacing scam Catabou
from an on the field perspective, his energy in the
locker room likely to be missed. As for San Francisco,
I mean the Texans had the first six drives. All
nine plays are longer all resultant int points Houston did.
In Houston, this is not an high octane offense, and
they were missing their best receiver. They didn't punt until
(13:21):
there was less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter.
San Fran less than nineteen minutes of possession, you know,
forty one minutes plus for Houston in that ballgame. Their
injury reports as ugly as it gets. You know, two
more starters, the defensive tackle a Jordan Elliott, the defen
events and Akayanu left the game with ankle injuries. Kyle
Shanahan quote there's not much sugarcoat there. I was real
(13:44):
disappointed the way we looked for all four quarters. First
half was unacceptable. Second half didn't get much better. Not
much to say except that, I mean, this team misses
their game breakers. They missed Ricky pearsall yesterday, John Jennings,
Kendrick Bourne. That just aren't game breakers in that sense,
you know, George Kittle, It was the horrible first half.
That was a really bad performance by our offense. And
I think we completely left our young defense out to
(14:06):
dry today because I think they played really well. The
defense that allowed scores on the first six drives of
the game, all on plays, of all on drives of
nine plays are longer san Franz hurting right now. I
don't think that, you know, again, there's a couple of
threes out there. I don't think they're going to hold
necessarily against the gemn If you want the Niners that
(14:26):
we played crappy in the first half. Thing, a couple
of you know, coach and player talking about that San
fran first half might be worth a look against the
GEM if you believe those quotes.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
Oh all right, Well, someone I don't believe in is
a guy named Kirk Cousins and I probably should have
had a little less faith in the guy when we
knew Michael Pittock Junior was going to be out, but
knowing Drake London was out, I was like, well, that's
just going to be a dead end loser, and sure
it was. Then the other flip side was the Browns
versus the New England Patriots. Steady, I thought the Browns
(14:59):
defense was going to show up and they certainly did not.
New England rocking and rolling on all cylinders right now,
talk to me about this matchup.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
Brown's defense played great in that game as long as
they could. You know, New England A New England was better,
and b when the offense starts turning it over, that's
the end. You know. Cleveland can't overcome that. I try,
you know again, I was large on Cleveland yesterday and
it was no fun whatsoever. Not the second half. First
half was fine. First half. I thought everything was playing
(15:29):
out perfectly except for the missfield goal anyhow, Patriots minus
three forty four and a half on the look headline
my powering number after the game, New England five and
a half, opened five and a half, forty five and
a half last night and right now we're seeing five
and a half forty five. There are some forty four
and a half out there. We have seen a little
(15:49):
bit of under money come in for this one. You know,
we found out that if we didn't know already, the
Kirk Cousins is no Michael Pennix. You know nothing but
check down. It's five point six yards for past attempt
three and out on four of their first five drives.
By then, they were way behind. You know. Atlanta came
into the game twenty eighth in the league in points
per game, eighteen points per game. You know, I think
(16:10):
about all the top ten draft choices they put on offense,
Think about how this offensive line is supposed to be elite.
B John Robinson, against the league's worst run defense, had
nine carries for twenty five yards. Tyler Aljier added four
rushing yards, though on his four attempts. Robinson after the game,
I put everything on me. I'm the leader of this offense.
Of course, Drake London a late scratch. He wasn't even
(16:32):
on the injury report until Saturday, and then he didn't
play in the game on Sunday. The Sacks leaders that
Harrison didn't play. The safety Jesse Bates left the game
with a injury in the third quarter. Ed rusher Gentlemen Walker,
cornerback Belie Bowman didn't play. Raheem Morris didn't last long
in Tampa as the head coach. This was not a
(16:54):
confidence inspiring showing for Atlanta, not even a little bit.
It may well be so the Waggles time and look
New England is a team that it's time for them
to have a flat game. You know, the defense came
out and the second half dominated three and out interception interception.
The offense scored touchdowns on allie possessions after the defensive
stops yards per play six point five to four point one.
(17:15):
New England looked really good. You know, they were only
two of six in the red zone. May got sacked
six times, five of them by Miles Carrott. You know,
Cleveland defense did control portions of that ball game, but
one hundred and seventy seven yards rushing against the Browns
defense at five point one yards per rush, eleven point
eight yards per passed them from May just dime after dime.
(17:36):
This team hasn't had much of a home field edge
in recent years. They started this year with home losses
in each of their first two games against the Raiders
and Steelers. You know the quotes say after the game,
you know the crib was rocking. It was loud out there,
Jalen Hawkins, you know Jake May talking about the home crowd.
It's really cool to see it difference from last year.
They've been through it. The fans have been through it
(17:56):
the last couple of years. A credit to them. There's
lots of poss in New England right now with boy,
this team's ready to have a flag game. That's why
this line isn't five and a half six, six and
a half seven. There will be some support for Atlanta
and the markets. It is a Falcon spot for whatever
the spot plays. The last couple of weeks haven't done
(18:16):
all that well, but this is surely a Falcon spot.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Yes, I can see that, Teddy, and I can also
see why people will keep wanting to back the Indianapolis Colts.
Double digit favorites, have not fared well this season, but
did not stop this freight train. They're looking really good,
not turning the ball over, and now they face a
Steelers team that was up when I went to bed
last line at half time I'm not sure what happened
(18:40):
in the fourth quarter there, but the Packers scored twenty
one and it was over when I woke up this
morning at five am.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Sure, So look headline Indie minus two and a half
and forty nine. My powering number Indie minus two and
a half last night was a split line. There were
two and a half and threes out there, total of
forty nine to two and a half are gone this morning.
The markets have moved to Indie minus three, even some
places in d minus three with juice already. So the
Colts officially getting some betting market love, and perhaps Pittsburgh
(19:11):
officially getting some betting market not love. I mean Indy
yesterday outgained Tennessee by three full yards per snap, eight
point one yards on offense, five point one allowed on defense,
and no turnovers. You know, hell, they had Riley Leonard
in the game taking fourth quarter snaps. It was a
big bit blowout. You know. Jonathan Taylor three touchdowns on
(19:31):
twelve carries, one hundred and fifty three yards. You know,
no running back is one mvpiece. Is Adrian Peterson in
twenty twelve. Certainly Jonathan Taylor is on that list, right now,
we've had three touchdowns in four different games so far
this season. That's incredible. Indy's now won four straight. They've
scored at least thirty one points in each game. They're
the highest scoring team in the NFL. Danny Dimes has
(19:53):
avoided a turnover six times in eight games twenty one
to twenty nine. Yesterday joined seventy two yard three touchdowns.
You know, they did punt four times. That's the most
that they've had all year. In a game where they
scored what thirty eight points and covered by margin is
double digit chalk, they still ended up punting. They were
(20:15):
There are some defensive injuries to be aware of. Sampson Ebukam,
Tyreek Lewis, Taekwon Lewis, I should say both miss yesterday's
game on the defensive line. That is a concern for
a team that's the offense is carrying them. Defense is problematic.
You want to talk about problematic defenses, though Pittsburgh's defense,
seven point two yards were play allowed yesterday. You know,
this is the NFL's highest paid defense, filled with savvy veterans,
(20:38):
and they got lit up again. You know, they lost
to the Bengals, got lit up in that game lost
of the Packers got lit up in that game. You know,
captain the defensive Captain Cameron Hayward quote, there's not a
lot of fighting us right now talking about the defense.
You know, Mike Tomlin, who could be better in all
(20:59):
areas starts for for the positions we put players in,
as coaches, as players, all of us we own it
will be better. We have to be. Jordan Love looked
like Vinta Jaron Rodgers last night. Seven point yards and
nine point seven yards were past THEMP. No picks, no sex.
Aaron Rodgers does not look like Vinta Jaron Rodgers anymore.
He looks like an aging QB on a team with
(21:20):
a bad defense. Not surprised the two and a half
scot bought off for Indie between last night and this morning.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
All right, if you guys are just joining us, a
little over two thousand of you right now on the
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shout out to our wager Talk insiders, wt dot, buzz
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Speaker 2 (21:46):
We'll call it here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
Teddy before we get into Panthers at the Packers, tell
me what you've got going on over at wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
I have a you know, I don't have a lot
of them. I got a five percent big ticket tonight
in Major League Baseball, the World Series Game three between
the Blue Jays and Dodgers. The baseball and look, so
the football has been crappy the last couple of weeks
for sure, and this week was a disaster. Luckily for
the all access clients, the basketball has been just fine
(22:18):
and the baseball has been great. Twenty one and seven
in the MLB postseason over the last two years, seventy
five percent up close to forty units of profit. You
can get that play right now on my page again
WT dot buzz, backslast TC, or just as the website
wager talk dot com for the five percent big ticket
in MLB four Monday Night, I will have NBA posted
(22:41):
as well. That will be after the show I am
passing on Monday Night Football tonight as an official play
like I talked about earlier. You can see the Chiefs
Commander's free play video on my homepage at WT dot
buzz backslast TC or on YouTube on the wager Talk
TV YouTube.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
All Right, the Panthers was my other stinker of a
bet yesterday, Teddy, and they just got absolutely rolled. Let's
just be real, Andy Dalton, what an abomination. You can't
take that sack and guess what here we are? As
I mentioned, I went to bed at halftime and the
Packers looked okay leading up into that moment, then came
alive in the fourth quarter on Sunday Night football.
Speaker 3 (23:18):
Sure look a headline here. Green Bay minus ten and
a half forty three and a half my powering number,
green Bay minus eleven and a half. The markets opened
eleven slash eleven and a half last night, forty three
and a half the total, and we're seeing twelve and
a half slash thirteen out there after green Bay looked
(23:39):
as good as they looked in the second half of
that ball game. This line will bounce around based on
what the status is of Bryce Yong. You know, we
talked about how Kirk Cousins no Michael Pennox. You know,
Andy Dalton is a name we remember from many years ago,
but the red Rifle is no Bryce Yeng. You know
he took seven sacks, no touchdowns through a pick. You know,
Carolina had a three game winning streak that came to
(24:00):
a streaching halt in that ballgame. Dalton quote, it's tough. Obviously,
I've got to do better job protecting the ball, especially
at the point early in the game we had some momentum,
We're close to scoring. I've got to hold on to it.
The defense is actually gashed on the ground, you know.
They give up two hundred and sixteen yards on nineteen
carries to Cook four buffalo yards per play four point
(24:22):
one yards were playing offense six point eight yards play
on defense. Lots of games like that yesterday with two
two and a half three point yards per play differential,
which tells us all the blowouts were not accidental. And
of course, when you're getting out game by two point
seven yards are play and your minus three in turnovers
defense didn't force any, you're likely to lose by margin.
Worth noting. For Carolina, they lost three starting offensive linemen
(24:46):
during the game. That's certainly a concern. That's a unit
that struggled with injuries all year, and they're thin right now.
Lost a pair of defenders as well. On the second
half of that contest. Head coach Date Canalis after the
game quote, I just have a lot of confidencens group
and the football that we've been playing, knowing that was
not us we put out there today was not us.
That's not the ball we've been playing. That's a lot
(25:07):
of us to have a lot of success. Let's get
refocused and get back to work. Certainly a bounced back
spot here against Green Bay Packers. There'd be the number
one seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today.
But despite their five to one to one record, they're
one and four against the spread the last five no
betting bandwagon for green Bay. Jordan Love was really good
(25:28):
last night, really good. Ten different receivers caught a pass
you know again, nine point seven yards for passing them,
No picks, no sacks. Michael Parsons quote, he showed why
he's the successor Daron Rodgers. I mean, he's the up
and coming, like Jay Love what I'm talking about. When
I was coming here, like I know, they got a quarterback,
Matt Lafleur. He was on fire. That's why we kept
(25:49):
wanting to throw the football. Worth noting they didn't get
Christian Watson back and the receiving corts. The receiving cort
that's had it, you know, kind of shuttling guys in
and out. Watching a big playmaker for the him in
recent seasons, but he tore his ACL and last year's
regular season finale had four catches for eighty five yards
in his return. That makes the Packers even better than
(26:10):
they were.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Okay, let's go to Detroit where we have an NFC
North rivalry game. Looks like it's gonna be JJ McCarthy
for the Vikings. Dan Campbell off a buy.
Speaker 3 (26:24):
Yeah, we got a emergency betting alert this one, and
this one's probably the most urgent of them all. If
you like the Vikings, bet them right now. Like right now,
we've seen money flowing for Minnesota this morning. I'm still
seeing eight and a half's out there and eight's out there.
I would expect this line to be seven and a
(26:44):
half in the not two distant future, so I know
eight's kind of a dead number. Doesn't matter. You want Minnesota,
bet it's sooner rather than later. Look at the line.
Here was Detroit eight and a half forty seven and
a half by powering numbers seven and a half. The
markets opened nine last nine and a half, forty eight
and a half last night eight and half some Brellion number.
Right now, we're going to see we've already seen Minnesota money.
I think we'll see a little bit more. We're not
(27:06):
going to see Carson Wentz again. You know, it's JJ
McCarthy time this week and maybe again. My party number
was only seven and a half. De Marcus haven't crashed
on Minnesota yet. There's still a school of thought out there,
and myself included that this is a pretty good team
that suffered from some unlucky, unlucky games and some bad
quarterback play, and that there's hope for JJ McCarthy. Certainly,
(27:28):
McCarthy was someone who that came in the season with
a lot of confidence and when he played early he
had one good quarter the fourth quarter against the Bears
on National TV, and seven awful quarters where he looked
like a rookie, not a first round rookie in that
sense or playing behind a good offensive line. Now, this
team has just suffered back to back losses for the
first time since last October, and it's worth noting when
(27:51):
they suffered last October, the back to back losses, it
was also a Sunday Thursday turnaround, so they have the
mini buy here for Minnesota. They won ninth straight after
that Sunday Thursday turnaround, back to back losses, and they
were crushed against the Chargers. You know, the twelve first
downs in that game versus twenty nine for LA, just
three of eleven on third down. They have them offer
just twenty one minutes in the game. Kevin O'Connell quote.
(28:14):
This is not a bury the tape kind of time
for our organization. This is a watch it, view it
own it every coach and every player. It starts with me.
I did not have our team prepared to play. The
defense didn't get gashed in LA, and that's concerned. It
came end of the game tied tenth in the league
allowing twenty points a game. Chargers scored thirty or more
(28:35):
for the first time all season. Didn't punt against this defense.
So you know this is again Detroit's a really good
team off a win versus Tampa and a buy which
isn't necessarily an optimal bet on spot. So I'm not
gonna call this Minnesota. We find out if Minnesota can
do anything here. But we'll get to the point, right
now where if the Vikings have another bad performance, the
(28:56):
market's gonna crash on them. As we've seen so far today,
the market's not crashing on Minnesota. They're supporting them against
Detroit in a game where again with the extra time
to repair, with the transition from Wentz to McCarthy, markets
are expecting better things than what we just saw from
the Minnesota Vikings this week.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
My bright spot yesterday, Teddy, minus the fact that I
had an awful number on the Ravens and they still
covered without Lamar Jackson, was the Denver Broncos. Technically I'm
a Broncos fan and normally I'm pretty hard on this team,
but boy did they look good yesterday against a crappy
Cowboys defense.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Yeah, Houston at home against Denver, Denver look aheadline minus
one and a half thirty nine my powering number. I
call it pickslash one or the Broncos minus a half
a point as road favorites. The markets opened last night
one and a half thirty nine and a half, and
that's basically what we're seeing today. There are some ones
out there, maybe more ones than one and a half,
(29:55):
but thirty nine and a half the total, you know,
if you want Houston, I wouldn't argue taking them on
the money line here. Now. You know, I'm seeing them
one and a half's getting bought up a little bit,
but I'm not. You know, that's not a you gotta run.
It's not a you know, the Vikings work won, you
gotta run this one. I don't think that's necessarily the case.
I talked about Houston. The best game of the season
we've seen from that offense. First six drives, all drives
(30:18):
of nine players are longer, all resultant in points. They
didn't punt to the less than five minutes left in
the fourth quarter, forty one plus minutes of possession, and
that was all without Nico Collins. No problem. Nine different
receivers caught a pass one hundred and fifty seven rushing yards.
Stroud wasn't sacked in the ballgame wide receivers. Xavier Hutchinson quote,
we got a lot of players who want the ball,
and he can he can do something with the ball.
(30:41):
I felt like it was a great time for us
to step up and show that's exactly what we did.
Stroud quote. Spreading the ball around is great for everyone.
I love seeing my guys make plays. To me, go
Ryans quote. What I'm most proud of is how we
finished the game. But some good starts. We haven't finished games,
and that's the key for us. Certainly a showdown here,
(31:01):
two good defenses, I'll say that much. That's why this
total is as low as it is. That being said,
Denver's offense been really good in that fourth quarter against
the Giants and again yesterday, four sixty plus yard touchdown
drives before halftime. Bo pitt Nicks picking up right where
we left off in that fourth quarter against the g
Man seven point. You have five yards per play defense
a lot only five point zero one hundred and seventy
(31:22):
nine rushing yards at six point four yards per carry,
four touchdowns, and five red zone dries. Bow Knicks was
not sacked in that ball game. You know they did
lose a pat certain to a shoulder injury before halftime.
But here's a guard Quinn Minires quote Quentin Miners, I
should say this is what we've been chasing, complimentary football
(31:43):
on offense, defense and special teams. There's still penalty things
we need to work through, but this is what we
are capable of. Their Super Bowl upside with Denver and
they showed that team showed yesterday they're probably better than Houston,
and the Marks are telling us that as Denver is
being road of favorite. But from a spot standpoint, you
do worry about Denver a little bit fat and happy.
(32:06):
Might not be the best spot to lay points in
vovee with them, but I do think they are better
than Houston. I believe in both of these.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
Defenses, Teddy.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
The comment section also believes in Denver, and that makes me.
You know, the contring in my brain says, if it
gets to one and a half, maybe I take Houston
there in a teaser spot at home, there's been a
couple of gimmes, if you will right, gimme spots teams
to play against.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
BOYD.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
Does this look like a gimme for the Chargers on
the road At the Tennessee Titans, who fired their coach,
looked okay. Against New England, the wheels fell off and
they continue to fall off. Last week in Indianapolis, talk
to me about the Chargers being double digit road favorites here.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Sure, look a headline here, Chargers there were seven and
a half. There were eight and a half total forty
three and a half. My party numbers come ten and
a half for the Chargers in that ballgame. The markets
opened ten and forty three and a half last night,
and that's pretty much what we're seeing this morning. There
are rogue ten and a halfs and nine and a
halfs out there, but ten and forty three the prevailing number.
(33:08):
You know, the ausive line held up against Minnesota for
the Chargers. You know, they got Joe Ault and Trey
Pippens both active. You know, they got the linebackers Khalil
Mackback and Denzel Perriman for the second game together. That
being said, they still got hurt in the ballgame. Denman
James got hurt, who's an impact player at safety. The
right guard McKay Beckton got hurt in that game. They
(33:31):
lost a cornerback as well. They still dominated, you know,
the third twenty nine first downs for to twelve. You know,
Carson Wentz the poke from the court from the opposing team.
Hats off to their defense on a short week. Lad
McConkie quote, if we don't beat ourselves, I feel like
we're a hard team, a hard football team to beat. Again.
They scored thirty points for the first time all year
(33:52):
and didn't punt that's certainly a positive sign facing a
Texans team that allowed eight point one yards per play.
They've They've lost now three straight, including both games since
Brian Callahan was fired and Mike McCoy took over. Six
or seven losses have come by double digit margins. They're
not staying competitive in these contexts. This is the worst
team in the league, and they're missing multiple defensive starters now.
(34:13):
Jeffrey Simmons didn't play, they lost linebacker Ally Gay, they
lost starting safety Savior Woods in game yesterday. Interim coach McCoy,
It's stinks losing. It's frustrating for everyone when you're not
winning football games. We got to find a way to
win one of these games each week. It's tougher to
swallow the pill. That's not a bet end quote in
this better's opinion.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Ugh, this game coming up is not great.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
We got the Jags now playing the Las Vegas Raiders.
Jags are off of buye, the Raiders are off of bye.
Yet the Jags are just a small road favorite here.
Speaker 3 (34:52):
Yeah, this is I think are likely to be our
final emergency betting alders of the show. Let's fire it
up there. If you'll over at the over. Right now,
we're seeing significant support for the over. There are still
forty four and a halfs out there, There are still forty
five's out there. The market has largely moved to forty
five and a half for this bug, and they're expecting
(35:14):
points in bunches. Look aheadline here was Jaguars minus three
forty four and a half. My parting number Jaguars minus
four and a half. Markets open three and forty four
last night, and now we're seeing three as high as
forty five and a half out there right now, forty
four and a half, forty five still available. The Jags
are four and three, but off losses to Seattle and
(35:36):
then a really bad loss to the Rams, but again
the offense score twelve and seven points in the two defeats,
and then the bye week the Raiders again first year
head coaches, who expect improvement off the bye week. Jacksonville
with the first year head coach, the Raiders also with
the first year head coach, Raiders two and five off
as battle loss will ever see against Kansas City where
they got out first down thirty to three. I don't
(35:56):
expect this line to move off of three. I already
talked about where I the total of move any further
moves on this one only going to be injury related
when it comes to injury news. Two teams that did
not play this past Sunday.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
Very quick synopsis on that one, and that was because
I don't know if that's a game anybody wants to
get involved in.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
And here's another stinker of a team for turnovers.
Speaker 1 (36:21):
I cannot, for the life of me understand the Saints team.
What are they tanking at this point? For Steve Sarkisian?
What is going on now? They are very big favorites
here at the Los Angeles Rams, who are off that
interesting game versus the Ravens that was very banged up
Steve Sarkisian.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
Why would they want Steve Sarkisian? And why would sarkis
the whole point of this else, why would the coach
want those jobs?
Speaker 2 (36:47):
You know, Marx Manning is the only thing that makes sense.
Speaker 3 (36:52):
Okay, I'm not getting distracted, but so the coach by
the coach, This coach is going there. It's silly speak. Remember,
everyone needs content, everyone needs clicks. None of those Most
of the ninety nine point nine per cent of what
you're reading about what coach should go. Where is someone
trying to get clicks? Not anyone that knows what the
frick's going on in the upstairs. So take that stuff
(37:14):
at the grain of salt. Look headline here Rams minus
twelve and a half forty five and a half my
powering number, Rams minus twelve. The markets opened thirteen and
a half forty four and a half last night, and
that's exactly what we're seeing today. There are fourteens popping
up for LA. They're not prevailing yet. I wouldn't argue
if you like the Rams lay thirteen and a half,
sooner rather than later that be said. I don't love
(37:37):
this spot for the Rams, you know. So McVeigh has
been really good coming out of the bye week, all right,
that much is true. They're off a win at Baltimore,
a blowout winning London against the Jags, and the bye.
The last two years they came out of the by
with three straight victories, although not all of them by
margin of though three years ago they came out of
the by and lost three in a row. So sample
size Saints again. The offense's witted four turnovers. Now we
(38:00):
have quarterback controversy with Tyler Shuck getting in the ballgame yesterday.
But Tyler Shuck wasn't any good either. Kellen Moore quote.
The quarterback change had more to do with the whole
offense just not playing well and hopefully trying to generate
some sort of spark there. I love Spence, I love Tyler.
I love these guys to death. These are never easy things.
This is an easy thing. No one will have a
(38:21):
new quarterback next year that's not on the roster now.
Neither one of these guys is likely to be a
starter more. We're just not ex shooting and playing at
a high enough standard. We got to find a way
to move the football consistently, protect the football and score point.
And this is a pure full offensive evaluation point. We've
got to evaluate this whole thing in the next forty
eight hours, find the solutions and get the best chance
(38:41):
to win. I'm not into flip flopping quarterbacks. I'm not
into this back and forth game. We have to make
some decisions going forward as the whole offense collectively, with
a lot of positions Spendler Ratler is one and thirteen
and his fourteen NFL starts, I would expect to see
Tyler Shuck as the qbing moving forward to interception. By
the way, it was an accurate pass torn away by
(39:02):
the defender and worth noting. The Saints defense held Tampa
under four yards per play, an impressive defensive showing, even
though the offense tore them all over four times for
the second straight week. Like I said, those are the
type of quotes that make me think there'll be a
QB change. And rather hasn't been good enough.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
To keep his job, and he doesn't deserve to keep
his job. I'm very excited for this game. This is
probably gonna be one of the best games of the season.
The Kansas City Chiefs head to Buffalo. Teddy break this
one down for me. I know the Chiefs play tonight
still on Monday Night Football, but do you think maybe
there's a look ahead?
Speaker 3 (39:37):
Well, look at line was Casey minus one and a
half and fifty and a half my powering number comes
pick him for this game, and I've got the Chiefs poweraders,
the best team in the league. The markets have opened
Kansas City minus one slash minus one and a half
prior to Monday Night Football. They're fifty one and a
half fifty twos out there for the total could Casey
look ahead. Sure they could, but that's not in Casey's problem.
(39:59):
But Casey hasn't been let's blow everybody out every week
team either. You know, they are four and one straight
up their last five and the only game they lost
was the ninety nine yard pick six game against Jacksonville,
where that fourteen point swing made a pretty big difference
in a game that Jags won by three. So if
Kansas City wins today, the betting bandwagon only gets bigger
(40:22):
for a team that already has a pretty big betting
bandwagon right about now. As for Buffalo, pretty big blowout yesday.
Mister Bisky got off the bench. That's all you need
to know. Cokeet two under and sixteen rushing yards. Leaves
had seven sacks of Andy Dalton. They were plus three
in turnovers. They won by two point seven yards per play.
Sean McDermott now nine to oher coffin off a by
quote different attitude and different energy for his team after
(40:44):
losing the last two going into the bye, they did
lose a couple of key pieces of the defensive line.
Ed Oliver got hurt in that ball going and Tae
Kwon Jones didn't play those are two impact players on
the defensive line against an offense that you need some
You need to put some pressure on my homes or
you get picked apart in that contest. Not surprised Casey
(41:05):
is favored here even though my number comes Pick.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
Them all right.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
Sunday Night football, the Seahawks off back to back wins.
Then they played the Commanders who played tonight. This is
going to be an interesting one because is Jade and
Daniels going to be healthy enough to play in this contest?
Speaker 3 (41:24):
Yeah? Like so I didn't mention it, and I should
have mentioned it with Carolina Green Bay. I haven't written
in my notes right here. The Bryce Young versus Andy
Dalton factor is likely to affect that number. Bryce Young
the quarterback that people want to see on the field. He's
the starter in this instance. Daniels and so my number
look at line here Seattle minus two and a half,
last minus three, total of forty six. I made two numbers.
(41:47):
I made a Marriota number and a Daniel's number. The
Daniels number is Seattle minus two and a half. The
Mariota number is Seattle minus four and a half, a
two point difference between the two. The markets opened three
and forty six last night. I'm seeing some three and
a half popping up now at leading indicated books for Washington.
But that will be affected most assuredly by what happens
(42:08):
this evening again Monday Night Football with Mariota behind center
this evening. If Daniels comes back, we will likely see
this number come down. And if it doesn't come back,
it's going to be Mariota moving forward, or at least
for another week, we'll likely see the number go up.
As for Seattle, they're five and two. They're off back
to back wins before the bye. The Monday Night Will
Football win against the Texans and then as well as
(42:30):
the Jags, so they had a national TV win and
a little bit of a shorter buy because they played
on the Monday night. But realistically, you know, Seattle's a
team that the markets have moved on pretty significantly since
started the season. They're one of the surprise teams. And
one of the things that makes me mad about my
struggles in recent weeks is that when we talked about
a formula for winning in October and October you met
(42:53):
on the surprise teams for the markets catch up with
surprise teams Indy good, New England good, Seattle good in
that sense. And I feel like I've been doing the
opposite of what it's supposed to be doing to the
basic strategy for October, and of course that's now coming gone,
So you have to find your new basic strategy for
November and beyond. The November basic strategy is not as
(43:15):
easy as what you want to do in September and October.
That said, this number will move based pretty much exclusively
on A how Washington looks tonight and b which quarterback
is behind center for the Commanders expected to be behind
center by next weekend?
Speaker 2 (43:31):
All right?
Speaker 1 (43:32):
Guy expected to be behind center for the Arizona Cardinals
on Monday Night football versus the Dallas Cowboys. Is Kyler
Murray Cowboys a short home favorite here?
Speaker 3 (43:42):
Yeah, look, so look at ning Dallas three fifty two
and a half. My powering number is Dallas three. The
market's open three and fifty three, and now we're seeing
three and fifty four. So the markets are betting overs
on the Cowboys. And again you can't blame the markets
betting overs and the Cowboys. They went under week one,
and in fact, they went under in the Chicago as well.
(44:02):
The one road game in Chicago, but they still give
up thirty one one points in that and they've gone
over every game before and since the exception of those
two unders. I mean, it's been pretty consistent over team.
And they've cast overs again every game since week the
week three under. So it's five straight over and all
(44:23):
of them with fifty seven points or more. Dak Prescott
no touchdowns, two interceptions, yards for play offense only five
point zero to seven point five. The defense allowed on
hunred svent nine rushing yards at six point four yards
per carry. They allowed four touchdowns in red zone tries.
Dak Prescott quote, all the credit to them, but we
didn't play anywhere close to our standard. We've got to
find a way to be consistent, whether it's home on
(44:44):
the road. Regardless. We're too good. We've got too many
good players, we've got great coaches. Davion Clowney. But just
saying the locker room is lost or should not be
going up and down like we're doing. A guy like that,
when he says it, that's real. So we've got to
look in the mirror. Of course, they're playing without their
top three safeties. League Cooker down Wilson Tonight Thomas. They
put Trevon diggs On into reserve, another key piece of
(45:04):
the secondary. But it's the fifth time that they've allowed
more than six point two yards per carry, the fifth
time they giveing up more than one hundred and forty
four rushing yards. They're just it's not a good defense.
And of course Jerry Jones after the game, I don't
know what's realistic. Could one better player, maybe like Micah Parsons,
if you didn't pay too big a price to have
a better player on defense, possibly help I'm not trying
to be cute, but that's why you go get him.
(45:26):
Could you think you can help your defense? Are we
one player away on defense? I think we're not. I
think we're more than that away. But in my mind
is executing better on defense. So basically, he's trying to
not blame himself for how bad the defense is in
despite the actually traded away their best defensive player. Brian
jotten Hiver is not blaming the defense when you look
at it. I'm just not gonna start with the defense.
I don't think any of us coached and played well enough.
(45:49):
At the end of the day, I think we have
enough good players. I didn't think we played well tonight.
The defense entered the game thirty second, dead last in
the NFL and yards per game, thirtieth in points per game.
You know, it's a bad defense and that's a problem.
That being said, they're facing a team that has found
ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again
(46:10):
and again and again. The Cardinals off five straight losses
and a bye week, the losses coming by one, three, one, four,
and four points thirteen points total. One play in every
game would have made Arizona an undefeated team right now
versus a team that had five straight losses. Yeah, and
the fact that they keep not making that one play. Obviously,
(46:32):
Jonathan Gannon's been on the hot seat. They've got injury concerns,
even with Kyler Murray back Cardinals. I'm not anticipating they're
going to get a ton of betting market support, but
I'm seeing some minus three plus one hundred. Who tell
us the wise guys might take some Arizona here betting
against that Cowboys defense.
Speaker 1 (46:51):
All right, Teddy covers that Teddy underscore covers on all
your social media. Please let everybody know how they can
join you over at Wagertalk dot Com plan on having
up for this week before we get out of here
for wager Talk Today.
Speaker 3 (47:05):
Sure we're in play again five percent pick ticket in
Major League Baseball World Series Game three for the night.
I'm twenty one and seven in the postseason over the
last two years, I'm twelve and four, with my last
sixteen in MLB this year dating back to the end
of the regular season. The baseball has been good. So
check it out on my homepagewg dot Buzz backslash TC.
We appreciate those likes. We appreciate the comments both Kelly
(47:25):
and I getting in the comments section every week. I
try to answer as many as we can. We appreciate
the follows, getting close to a quarter of a million
following us on wager Talk TV. If you haven't done
so good, instional urse every time these videos go live.
Thank you for your support. We really appreciate it. Best
of luck with all your bets this week. Guys.
Speaker 1 (47:43):
Cheers, Yes, thank you guys once again for hanging out
with us here every single Monday.
Speaker 2 (47:48):
On the opening line report hang around.
Speaker 1 (47:51):
Wager Talk Today is up in about ten minutes with
Andy Lane
And to the opening line report, Kelly Stewart here on
this beautiful Monday morning, we're gonna bring in Teddy Covers
right away because we're gonna do a little quicker format.
Teddy and I are listening to the comments, we're listening
to YouTube, and so we're gonna kind of change things
up just.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
A little bit. Teddy.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
If you blindly bet the favorite in the over yesterday,
you went astounding sixteen to three and one.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
One hundred dollars.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Better to be up twelve, one hundred and seventy dollars,
And that means Kelly had a bad day. And I'll
say this, the only exciting game was Jets Bengals, and
it wasn't that exciting for me because I had Bengals
in Survivor.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Sure, Sure, the Bengals lose, the Falcons lose carnage in Survivor.
And they were the only two favorites all day not
to cover favorites going, including the Chargers on Thursday night
ten and two. For the week overs nine and one.
I counted two pushes with the overs, and my number
slightly in yours, but Houston, San Frian landed forty one.
Miami Atlanta landed forty four. The Ravens Bears landed right
(00:58):
in the middle, which again as another not great scenario.
Four sports books could have gone over everything, but Chicago
couldn't punch it in from a first and goal late
in the game. And of course, when you have all
the favorites cashing and all the overscashing, it's a bad
combo for sportsbook Another good week for the public, another
bad week for wise guys. I had my worst week
(01:19):
of the year in the NFL. It was not a
good day for the clients yesterday. I got one job
be decent and I stunk. And you never feel good
on a Monday morning when your plays stink. That being said,
ten of the eleven games yesterday were recited by double
digit margins. Seven were decided by eighteen points or more.
If you were betting NFL teasers yesterday, long teasers, any
(01:42):
kind of teasers you wanted, and we'll call it an
abject disaster. Bad day for teaser betters, bad day for
the sportsbooks.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Yeah, I'm very glad I ended up saying off those
teasers this last week.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Sadi, You and I welcome in guys.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
If you got a comment, please drop it in We
appreciate all of you hanging out with us here live,
especially those wager Talk insiders.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
So Jenny Monday Night Football.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Let everybody know where they can watch your video really
quickly on the Commanders at the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Yeah, I have a video up for Commanders and the Chiefs.
You can find it on my homepage wt dot Buzz,
Backslash TC, w right break down the game. You can
always find it on YouTube and of course the wager
Talk YouTube channel. We're approaching a quarter million followers now.
If you haven't done so, follow the channel. I understand
my pick's stunky yesterday, but you know what the analysis
(02:31):
today is going to be spot on this show. We
still you know, we get mad for a little while,
we have our moment, we sit down and get to work,
and that's what every better needs to be doing, good
day or bad. But anyhow, visit the page wt dot Buzz,
Backslash TC, check out the YouTube channel wager Talk TV,
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(02:52):
get those instant alerts every time these videos go live.
And this time of year is a time of year
where you need to be subscribed to this channel. There
is so much freak content we're putting out every single day.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Kel absolutely Teddy.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
I got my pin and paper ready because this show
is all about information, getting the best of it, and
that is what is so important to me. I did
not get the best of the information on this Ravens game,
but somehow I still got the cover. Last week, Baltimore
with Tyler Huntley looked decent. Maybe the Bears looked bad,
(03:24):
But let's talk about this Thursday night football game. Ravens
Dolphins finally got a nice win as well.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
Sure look aheadline. Yeah, two teams that desperately needed a
good performance both came through with winning showings. Look aheadline.
Here was Baltimore seven and a half. That was with
Lamar Jackson line fifty and a half my powering number,
and I continue to be I continue to rate Baltimore
a little bit higher than I think I should and
(03:51):
still be below the market number on Baltimore. My powering
number came Baltimore six and a half. The markets are
seven and a half and fifty to open and they're
set one and a half and fifty this morning, so
we really haven't seen any movement on this game so far.
As for Baltimore, I mean yards per play against Chicago.
The final score of clop side of the yards for
play six point overs to six point zero. But what
did the Ravens do? No turnovers, one hundred and seventy
(04:14):
seven rushing yards at five point two yards per carry
Tyler Huntley only five incomplete passes in that ball game.
Now we do expect Lamar Jackson back for Thursday Night football.
They had lost eleven of their last thirteen without Jackson
in the lineup, managed to win one yesterday. You know,
fullback Patrick riccard quote. Getting a lot more guys back
healthy and playing just feels like a fresh new start
(04:36):
for us. Right now we're one and oh and of
course let's not forget Baltimore despite their record. After Pittsburgh
losing yesterday, they're the favorites in the AFC North again,
and they're likely to be favored in each of their
next seven ballgames barring disaster. As for Miami, you know,
I thought they quit on their coach and quit on
(04:56):
their season. Well apparently not so much, Mike McDaniel. Anytime
you have an embarrassing outing as a team, you can
go one or two ways. I didn't see the negative
way as being something that was on the table for
this locker room. What they do, no turnovers, thirty seven
minutes of possession, complete domination as a touchdown underdog from
the opening kick in that contest. Two I had thrown
(05:18):
three picks in each of the previous two games and
was added to the injury report before the game because
he was sick. He was really good at that bug.
In his quote, probably one of the worst experiences I've
had in TI, the waking up and having that on
game day being sick. He ended up wearing a wiser
JA advisor JAYL. N. Wattall quote, two is not wanting
to be rattled easily, extremely confident, and we're extremely confident
(05:39):
in him. Baltimore very much a team that the betting
markets expect to be right in the playoff mix despite
their two and six record Miami at this number, the
betting marks are saying, yeah, well you beat Atlanta. Maybe
they're issues in Atlanta. There's not sold on the offense
just yet.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
I'm not sure I'm sold in the doins either, And
two other teams I'm not sold on that coincidentally get
to play each other this week. We have the Bears
tank it on the Cincinnati Bengals. We mentioned the Bengals
off that ugly Jets loss. Kind of talk to me
about Caleb Williams and the Bears and where they go
forward from here. I'm feeling all right about my under
eight and a half wins ticket right now, Teddy.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
So the lookhead line for Chicago, there were minus one
and a half's out there for the Bears. There were
pick'ems in the on the Look head line as well.
Total was forty eight and a half. Note that forty
eight and a half My powering number comes Bears minus
a half. I usually write that as pickslash one. That
means it's a half point difference by the Chicago minus
one is my powerting opened last night Chicago minus one
(06:43):
and a half, fifty one and a half. We've seen
nothing but over money. Still bears fifty one, and I
started still bears minus one and a half, but now
we're seeing fifty two and a half's, even fifty threes
out there. I thought about emergency betting alert this total,
but honestly, I think that you can still find fifty
one and a half's right now if you shop around.
There's not enough of them for me to say that's
(07:04):
widely available. But if you like this over, I would
find one of the places where it's still fifty one
and a half for fifty two, and bet it now
we are seeing fifty two and a half. Fifty three
is a prevailing numbers. What happened with the Bears yet? Yeah,
I mean your Bears just look season win totals. One
of the beauty about them is you're gonna have bad
starts and things can turn mid season. I don't I'm
(07:26):
not selling the Bears after yesterday's showing. They played equal
until the yards per play with Baltimore. They just weren't efficient.
They had one of those days. They had eleven penalties.
After forcing fifteen turnovers of the previous four weeks, the
defense didn't force any yesterday. They went one of three
in the red zone on scoring one touchdown to the
three chances, and they really had a chance out gaining
(07:47):
the Ravens one hundred and twenty five to eight in
the first quarter and settled for two field goals, And
that was the difference in the game. If they're up
fourteen to nothing, it's a very different game in that contest.
Caleb Williams, talking about the penalties. Quote, we got to
emphasize it more. That's what it comes down to. We
have to figure out a solution. We have to figure
it out a final solution because it's hurting us as
an offense. Worth noting from an injury standpoint, Chicago missing
(08:09):
a pair of starting defensive backs yesterday, Tyrek Stevenson and
Kyler Gordon, and during the game they lost a pair
of defensive linemen in Dominic Robinson and Shamir Turner Shamar Turner,
so that could be as many as four starting defenders
from the line and the secondary might not play in
this one against the Bengals team that just hung thirty
eight against the Jets yesterday and still found a way
(08:31):
to lose. The Jets stayed over five hundred yards only
the second time in twenty five years the Jets have
gained over five and twenty five over five hundred yards.
And of course, that game against Zach Taylor's Bengals, you know,
and I mean, there were some positive signs. They had
two rushing touchdowns in the first seven weeks of the season.
They had three by the midway point of the fourth
quarter of that ballgame. But I didn't like the quotes
(08:54):
after the game. I really didn't, you know, Jamar Chase.
This game should have been over when it was sixteen
to thirty one, twenty eight, whatever the hell they had,
it should have been over. It should have been over.
That's throwing the defense under the bus. Zach Taylor humbling
for us certainly. Quote I think someone needs to step
up and leave the group. That's what I'm waiting to see.
Someone could step up and leave the group and take
(09:15):
some accountability over there and get this thing going the
right way. That's the coach throwing the defense under the bus.
Can't playing black O he don thirty eight points on
a week offense flacko no picks, one sack, that had
one hundred and eighty one rushing are at seven point
nine yards per carry. But now they're one in five
straight up the last six the defense has allowed forty
(09:35):
twenty eight, thirty seven, twenty seven, thirty one, and thirty
nine points in those games, not a single Stiller showing.
I guess it wasn't a quarter of problem, you know,
Lou and Arumo last year versus Al Golden. This year
defense was not good. Last year Notre eight defense was
good at Rumo's defense in Indy is good this year.
I know by the way Trey Hendrickson hurt again. He
(09:57):
hobbled off the field in the first half. It did
not return in that ball game. So since he in
that sense a difficult team, and of course you don't
have to like points them here, but that was a
tough loss. That was his loss. That has a petition
that change the trajectory of a team season. I worry
about the Bengals this week. I think the Bears are
favorite for good reason.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
All Right, we don't like those absolute catastrophic losses. And
I don't know if the Giants have a catastrophic loss
in losing cam Skataboo, but let's just say it's not
good when Jackson Dart is basically squinting in pain on
the sideline that his best friend and running back is
going to have to have ankle surgery, and I believe
he did.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Last night.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
San Francisco kind of seemed like that square play yesterday
Teddy that everybody wanted to tease, everybody wanted it involved in,
and that Saxon's tried to blow it there late. But
San Francisco, no avail. They're now favorites on the road
at New York.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
Yeah, Texans tried to blow it a couple times in
that game with san Fran yesterday, just wasn't good enough
to take advantage. That being said, it is time for
our first emergency betting alert of the morning. Like over
bet it right now, let me talk about it. San
Fran open look head lines niners that were two and
a half and minus three total forty five and a
(11:14):
half as a look head line open last night two
and a half's last three forty seven the total. What
are we looking at right now? Two and a half
mostly out there, there are still some threes. I'm seeing
forty seven and a halfs I'm seeing forty eight, so
I'm seeing forty eight and a half, so I'm seeing
forty nine and a half out there. You can still
find forty seven and a half forty eight if you
(11:36):
like the over, I do that sooner rather than later.
The markets saying Giants are an over team right now,
and I don't necessarily disagree with that. My powerating for
the game is only two san Fran West Coast team
traveling east for the early start game, and I wasn't
sure how much to downgrade the Giants with the Scatboy injury.
I really, I really wasn't you know. You know, they're
(11:56):
not going to give them a win many games. We
can give up thirty three points in the fourth quarter
like the last week, and they're not going to win
many games when you give up tour in seventy six
rushing yards on eight point four yards per carry and
allowed two different one hundred yard rushers. You know, and
of course it's the team that was thirty first in
the NFL coming into yesterday's game in yards per carry allowed.
So you can run the football on the Giants. I
(12:17):
expect San Franz to do a fair bit of that
this week. I mean they were in the fourth quarter,
second and twenty six and then they immediately allowed his
twenty nine yard run. That was just the state of
the Giants run defense yesterday. The defensive line hasn't been
that bad all year, but it was pretty lousy yesterday.
And of course they lost a couple of cornerbacks with injuries.
You talked about the Scataboo injury, and of course they're
(12:39):
already operating without Elik Neighbors. That matters. You know. They
were held to less than hundred yards until the last
two drives when the game was out of hand. Darius
Slayton quote, it's really hard to see. Young guy is
having a heck of a year, someone who's a unifying
personality and energetic personality. It's sad to see him go down.
Running backs don't matter in the NFL tyrone trace see
(13:00):
Devin singletary. If you just fine in replacing scam Catabou
from an on the field perspective, his energy in the
locker room likely to be missed. As for San Francisco,
I mean the Texans had the first six drives. All
nine plays are longer all resultant int points Houston did.
In Houston, this is not an high octane offense, and
they were missing their best receiver. They didn't punt until
(13:21):
there was less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter.
San Fran less than nineteen minutes of possession, you know,
forty one minutes plus for Houston in that ballgame. Their
injury reports as ugly as it gets. You know, two
more starters, the defensive tackle a Jordan Elliott, the defen
events and Akayanu left the game with ankle injuries. Kyle
Shanahan quote there's not much sugarcoat there. I was real
(13:44):
disappointed the way we looked for all four quarters. First
half was unacceptable. Second half didn't get much better. Not
much to say except that, I mean, this team misses
their game breakers. They missed Ricky pearsall yesterday, John Jennings,
Kendrick Bourne. That just aren't game breakers in that sense,
you know, George Kittle, It was the horrible first half.
That was a really bad performance by our offense. And
I think we completely left our young defense out to
(14:06):
dry today because I think they played really well. The
defense that allowed scores on the first six drives of
the game, all on plays, of all on drives of
nine plays are longer san Franz hurting right now. I
don't think that, you know, again, there's a couple of
threes out there. I don't think they're going to hold
necessarily against the gemn If you want the Niners that
(14:26):
we played crappy in the first half. Thing, a couple
of you know, coach and player talking about that San
fran first half might be worth a look against the
GEM if you believe those quotes.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
Oh all right, Well, someone I don't believe in is
a guy named Kirk Cousins and I probably should have
had a little less faith in the guy when we
knew Michael Pittock Junior was going to be out, but
knowing Drake London was out, I was like, well, that's
just going to be a dead end loser, and sure
it was. Then the other flip side was the Browns
versus the New England Patriots. Steady, I thought the Browns
(14:59):
defense was going to show up and they certainly did not.
New England rocking and rolling on all cylinders right now,
talk to me about this matchup.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
Brown's defense played great in that game as long as
they could. You know, New England A New England was better,
and b when the offense starts turning it over, that's
the end. You know. Cleveland can't overcome that. I try,
you know again, I was large on Cleveland yesterday and
it was no fun whatsoever. Not the second half. First
half was fine. First half. I thought everything was playing
(15:29):
out perfectly except for the missfield goal anyhow, Patriots minus
three forty four and a half on the look headline
my powering number after the game, New England five and
a half, opened five and a half, forty five and
a half last night and right now we're seeing five
and a half forty five. There are some forty four
and a half out there. We have seen a little
(15:49):
bit of under money come in for this one. You know,
we found out that if we didn't know already, the
Kirk Cousins is no Michael Pennix. You know nothing but
check down. It's five point six yards for past attempt
three and out on four of their first five drives.
By then, they were way behind. You know. Atlanta came
into the game twenty eighth in the league in points
per game, eighteen points per game. You know, I think
(16:10):
about all the top ten draft choices they put on offense,
Think about how this offensive line is supposed to be elite.
B John Robinson, against the league's worst run defense, had
nine carries for twenty five yards. Tyler Aljier added four
rushing yards, though on his four attempts. Robinson after the game,
I put everything on me. I'm the leader of this offense.
Of course, Drake London a late scratch. He wasn't even
(16:32):
on the injury report until Saturday, and then he didn't
play in the game on Sunday. The Sacks leaders that
Harrison didn't play. The safety Jesse Bates left the game
with a injury in the third quarter. Ed rusher Gentlemen Walker,
cornerback Belie Bowman didn't play. Raheem Morris didn't last long
in Tampa as the head coach. This was not a
(16:54):
confidence inspiring showing for Atlanta, not even a little bit.
It may well be so the Waggles time and look
New England is a team that it's time for them
to have a flat game. You know, the defense came
out and the second half dominated three and out interception interception.
The offense scored touchdowns on allie possessions after the defensive
stops yards per play six point five to four point one.
(17:15):
New England looked really good. You know, they were only
two of six in the red zone. May got sacked
six times, five of them by Miles Carrott. You know,
Cleveland defense did control portions of that ball game, but
one hundred and seventy seven yards rushing against the Browns
defense at five point one yards per rush, eleven point
eight yards per passed them from May just dime after dime.
(17:36):
This team hasn't had much of a home field edge
in recent years. They started this year with home losses
in each of their first two games against the Raiders
and Steelers. You know the quotes say after the game,
you know the crib was rocking. It was loud out there,
Jalen Hawkins, you know Jake May talking about the home crowd.
It's really cool to see it difference from last year.
They've been through it. The fans have been through it
(17:56):
the last couple of years. A credit to them. There's
lots of poss in New England right now with boy,
this team's ready to have a flag game. That's why
this line isn't five and a half six, six and
a half seven. There will be some support for Atlanta
and the markets. It is a Falcon spot for whatever
the spot plays. The last couple of weeks haven't done
(18:16):
all that well, but this is surely a Falcon spot.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Yes, I can see that, Teddy, and I can also
see why people will keep wanting to back the Indianapolis Colts.
Double digit favorites, have not fared well this season, but
did not stop this freight train. They're looking really good,
not turning the ball over, and now they face a
Steelers team that was up when I went to bed
last line at half time I'm not sure what happened
(18:40):
in the fourth quarter there, but the Packers scored twenty
one and it was over when I woke up this
morning at five am.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Sure, So look headline Indie minus two and a half
and forty nine. My powering number Indie minus two and
a half last night was a split line. There were
two and a half and threes out there, total of
forty nine to two and a half are gone this morning.
The markets have moved to Indie minus three, even some
places in d minus three with juice already. So the
Colts officially getting some betting market love, and perhaps Pittsburgh
(19:11):
officially getting some betting market not love. I mean Indy
yesterday outgained Tennessee by three full yards per snap, eight
point one yards on offense, five point one allowed on defense,
and no turnovers. You know, hell, they had Riley Leonard
in the game taking fourth quarter snaps. It was a
big bit blowout. You know. Jonathan Taylor three touchdowns on
(19:31):
twelve carries, one hundred and fifty three yards. You know,
no running back is one mvpiece. Is Adrian Peterson in
twenty twelve. Certainly Jonathan Taylor is on that list, right now,
we've had three touchdowns in four different games so far
this season. That's incredible. Indy's now won four straight. They've
scored at least thirty one points in each game. They're
the highest scoring team in the NFL. Danny Dimes has
(19:53):
avoided a turnover six times in eight games twenty one
to twenty nine. Yesterday joined seventy two yard three touchdowns.
You know, they did punt four times. That's the most
that they've had all year. In a game where they
scored what thirty eight points and covered by margin is
double digit chalk, they still ended up punting. They were
(20:15):
There are some defensive injuries to be aware of. Sampson Ebukam,
Tyreek Lewis, Taekwon Lewis, I should say both miss yesterday's
game on the defensive line. That is a concern for
a team that's the offense is carrying them. Defense is problematic.
You want to talk about problematic defenses, though Pittsburgh's defense,
seven point two yards were play allowed yesterday. You know,
this is the NFL's highest paid defense, filled with savvy veterans,
(20:38):
and they got lit up again. You know, they lost
to the Bengals, got lit up in that game lost
of the Packers got lit up in that game. You know,
captain the defensive Captain Cameron Hayward quote, there's not a
lot of fighting us right now talking about the defense.
You know, Mike Tomlin, who could be better in all
(20:59):
areas starts for for the positions we put players in,
as coaches, as players, all of us we own it
will be better. We have to be. Jordan Love looked
like Vinta Jaron Rodgers last night. Seven point yards and
nine point seven yards were past THEMP. No picks, no sex.
Aaron Rodgers does not look like Vinta Jaron Rodgers anymore.
He looks like an aging QB on a team with
(21:20):
a bad defense. Not surprised the two and a half
scot bought off for Indie between last night and this morning.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
All right, if you guys are just joining us, a
little over two thousand of you right now on the
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shout out to our wager Talk insiders, wt dot, buzz
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some extra bonuses.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
We'll call it here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
Teddy before we get into Panthers at the Packers, tell
me what you've got going on over at wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
I have a you know, I don't have a lot
of them. I got a five percent big ticket tonight
in Major League Baseball, the World Series Game three between
the Blue Jays and Dodgers. The baseball and look, so
the football has been crappy the last couple of weeks
for sure, and this week was a disaster. Luckily for
the all access clients, the basketball has been just fine
(22:18):
and the baseball has been great. Twenty one and seven
in the MLB postseason over the last two years, seventy
five percent up close to forty units of profit. You
can get that play right now on my page again
WT dot buzz, backslast TC, or just as the website
wager talk dot com for the five percent big ticket
in MLB four Monday Night, I will have NBA posted
(22:41):
as well. That will be after the show I am
passing on Monday Night Football tonight as an official play
like I talked about earlier. You can see the Chiefs
Commander's free play video on my homepage at WT dot
buzz backslast TC or on YouTube on the wager Talk
TV YouTube.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
All Right, the Panthers was my other stinker of a
bet yesterday, Teddy, and they just got absolutely rolled. Let's
just be real, Andy Dalton, what an abomination. You can't
take that sack and guess what here we are? As
I mentioned, I went to bed at halftime and the
Packers looked okay leading up into that moment, then came
alive in the fourth quarter on Sunday Night football.
Speaker 3 (23:18):
Sure look a headline here. Green Bay minus ten and
a half forty three and a half my powering number,
green Bay minus eleven and a half. The markets opened
eleven slash eleven and a half last night, forty three
and a half the total, and we're seeing twelve and
a half slash thirteen out there after green Bay looked
(23:39):
as good as they looked in the second half of
that ball game. This line will bounce around based on
what the status is of Bryce Yong. You know, we
talked about how Kirk Cousins no Michael Pennox. You know,
Andy Dalton is a name we remember from many years ago,
but the red Rifle is no Bryce Yeng. You know
he took seven sacks, no touchdowns through a pick. You know,
Carolina had a three game winning streak that came to
(24:00):
a streaching halt in that ballgame. Dalton quote, it's tough. Obviously,
I've got to do better job protecting the ball, especially
at the point early in the game we had some momentum,
We're close to scoring. I've got to hold on to it.
The defense is actually gashed on the ground, you know.
They give up two hundred and sixteen yards on nineteen
carries to Cook four buffalo yards per play four point
(24:22):
one yards were playing offense six point eight yards play
on defense. Lots of games like that yesterday with two
two and a half three point yards per play differential,
which tells us all the blowouts were not accidental. And
of course, when you're getting out game by two point
seven yards are play and your minus three in turnovers
defense didn't force any, you're likely to lose by margin.
Worth noting. For Carolina, they lost three starting offensive linemen
(24:46):
during the game. That's certainly a concern. That's a unit
that struggled with injuries all year, and they're thin right now.
Lost a pair of defenders as well. On the second
half of that contest. Head coach Date Canalis after the
game quote, I just have a lot of confidencens group
and the football that we've been playing, knowing that was
not us we put out there today was not us.
That's not the ball we've been playing. That's a lot
(25:07):
of us to have a lot of success. Let's get
refocused and get back to work. Certainly a bounced back
spot here against Green Bay Packers. There'd be the number
one seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today.
But despite their five to one to one record, they're
one and four against the spread the last five no
betting bandwagon for green Bay. Jordan Love was really good
(25:28):
last night, really good. Ten different receivers caught a pass
you know again, nine point seven yards for passing them,
No picks, no sacks. Michael Parsons quote, he showed why
he's the successor Daron Rodgers. I mean, he's the up
and coming, like Jay Love what I'm talking about. When
I was coming here, like I know, they got a quarterback,
Matt Lafleur. He was on fire. That's why we kept
(25:49):
wanting to throw the football. Worth noting they didn't get
Christian Watson back and the receiving corts. The receiving cort
that's had it, you know, kind of shuttling guys in
and out. Watching a big playmaker for the him in
recent seasons, but he tore his ACL and last year's
regular season finale had four catches for eighty five yards
in his return. That makes the Packers even better than
(26:10):
they were.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Okay, let's go to Detroit where we have an NFC
North rivalry game. Looks like it's gonna be JJ McCarthy
for the Vikings. Dan Campbell off a buy.
Speaker 3 (26:24):
Yeah, we got a emergency betting alert this one, and
this one's probably the most urgent of them all. If
you like the Vikings, bet them right now. Like right now,
we've seen money flowing for Minnesota this morning. I'm still
seeing eight and a half's out there and eight's out there.
I would expect this line to be seven and a
(26:44):
half in the not two distant future, so I know
eight's kind of a dead number. Doesn't matter. You want Minnesota,
bet it's sooner rather than later. Look at the line.
Here was Detroit eight and a half forty seven and
a half by powering numbers seven and a half. The
markets opened nine last nine and a half, forty eight
and a half last night eight and half some Brellion number.
Right now, we're going to see we've already seen Minnesota money.
I think we'll see a little bit more. We're not
(27:06):
going to see Carson Wentz again. You know, it's JJ
McCarthy time this week and maybe again. My party number
was only seven and a half. De Marcus haven't crashed
on Minnesota yet. There's still a school of thought out there,
and myself included that this is a pretty good team
that suffered from some unlucky, unlucky games and some bad
quarterback play, and that there's hope for JJ McCarthy. Certainly,
(27:28):
McCarthy was someone who that came in the season with
a lot of confidence and when he played early he
had one good quarter the fourth quarter against the Bears
on National TV, and seven awful quarters where he looked
like a rookie, not a first round rookie in that
sense or playing behind a good offensive line. Now, this
team has just suffered back to back losses for the
first time since last October, and it's worth noting when
(27:51):
they suffered last October, the back to back losses, it
was also a Sunday Thursday turnaround, so they have the
mini buy here for Minnesota. They won ninth straight after
that Sunday Thursday turnaround, back to back losses, and they
were crushed against the Chargers. You know, the twelve first
downs in that game versus twenty nine for LA, just
three of eleven on third down. They have them offer
just twenty one minutes in the game. Kevin O'Connell quote.
(28:14):
This is not a bury the tape kind of time
for our organization. This is a watch it, view it
own it every coach and every player. It starts with me.
I did not have our team prepared to play. The
defense didn't get gashed in LA, and that's concerned. It
came end of the game tied tenth in the league
allowing twenty points a game. Chargers scored thirty or more
(28:35):
for the first time all season. Didn't punt against this defense.
So you know this is again Detroit's a really good
team off a win versus Tampa and a buy which
isn't necessarily an optimal bet on spot. So I'm not
gonna call this Minnesota. We find out if Minnesota can
do anything here. But we'll get to the point, right
now where if the Vikings have another bad performance, the
(28:56):
market's gonna crash on them. As we've seen so far today,
the market's not crashing on Minnesota. They're supporting them against
Detroit in a game where again with the extra time
to repair, with the transition from Wentz to McCarthy, markets
are expecting better things than what we just saw from
the Minnesota Vikings this week.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
My bright spot yesterday, Teddy, minus the fact that I
had an awful number on the Ravens and they still
covered without Lamar Jackson, was the Denver Broncos. Technically I'm
a Broncos fan and normally I'm pretty hard on this team,
but boy did they look good yesterday against a crappy
Cowboys defense.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Yeah, Houston at home against Denver, Denver look aheadline minus
one and a half thirty nine my powering number. I
call it pickslash one or the Broncos minus a half
a point as road favorites. The markets opened last night
one and a half thirty nine and a half, and
that's basically what we're seeing today. There are some ones
out there, maybe more ones than one and a half,
(29:55):
but thirty nine and a half the total, you know,
if you want Houston, I wouldn't argue taking them on
the money line here. Now. You know, I'm seeing them
one and a half's getting bought up a little bit,
but I'm not. You know, that's not a you gotta run.
It's not a you know, the Vikings work won, you
gotta run this one. I don't think that's necessarily the case.
I talked about Houston. The best game of the season
we've seen from that offense. First six drives, all drives
(30:18):
of nine players are longer, all resultant in points. They
didn't punt to the less than five minutes left in
the fourth quarter, forty one plus minutes of possession, and
that was all without Nico Collins. No problem. Nine different
receivers caught a pass one hundred and fifty seven rushing yards.
Stroud wasn't sacked in the ballgame wide receivers. Xavier Hutchinson quote,
we got a lot of players who want the ball,
and he can he can do something with the ball.
(30:41):
I felt like it was a great time for us
to step up and show that's exactly what we did.
Stroud quote. Spreading the ball around is great for everyone.
I love seeing my guys make plays. To me, go
Ryans quote. What I'm most proud of is how we
finished the game. But some good starts. We haven't finished games,
and that's the key for us. Certainly a showdown here,
(31:01):
two good defenses, I'll say that much. That's why this
total is as low as it is. That being said,
Denver's offense been really good in that fourth quarter against
the Giants and again yesterday, four sixty plus yard touchdown
drives before halftime. Bo pitt Nicks picking up right where
we left off in that fourth quarter against the g
Man seven point. You have five yards per play defense
a lot only five point zero one hundred and seventy
(31:22):
nine rushing yards at six point four yards per carry,
four touchdowns, and five red zone dries. Bow Knicks was
not sacked in that ball game. You know they did
lose a pat certain to a shoulder injury before halftime.
But here's a guard Quinn Minires quote Quentin Miners, I
should say this is what we've been chasing, complimentary football
(31:43):
on offense, defense and special teams. There's still penalty things
we need to work through, but this is what we
are capable of. Their Super Bowl upside with Denver and
they showed that team showed yesterday they're probably better than Houston,
and the Marks are telling us that as Denver is
being road of favorite. But from a spot standpoint, you
do worry about Denver a little bit fat and happy.
(32:06):
Might not be the best spot to lay points in
vovee with them, but I do think they are better
than Houston. I believe in both of these.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
Defenses, Teddy.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
The comment section also believes in Denver, and that makes me.
You know, the contring in my brain says, if it
gets to one and a half, maybe I take Houston
there in a teaser spot at home, there's been a
couple of gimmes, if you will right, gimme spots teams
to play against.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
BOYD.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
Does this look like a gimme for the Chargers on
the road At the Tennessee Titans, who fired their coach,
looked okay. Against New England, the wheels fell off and
they continue to fall off. Last week in Indianapolis, talk
to me about the Chargers being double digit road favorites here.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Sure, look a headline here, Chargers there were seven and
a half. There were eight and a half total forty
three and a half. My party numbers come ten and
a half for the Chargers in that ballgame. The markets
opened ten and forty three and a half last night,
and that's pretty much what we're seeing this morning. There
are rogue ten and a halfs and nine and a
halfs out there, but ten and forty three the prevailing number.
(33:08):
You know, the ausive line held up against Minnesota for
the Chargers. You know, they got Joe Ault and Trey
Pippens both active. You know, they got the linebackers Khalil
Mackback and Denzel Perriman for the second game together. That
being said, they still got hurt in the ballgame. Denman
James got hurt, who's an impact player at safety. The
right guard McKay Beckton got hurt in that game. They
(33:31):
lost a cornerback as well. They still dominated, you know,
the third twenty nine first downs for to twelve. You know,
Carson Wentz the poke from the court from the opposing team.
Hats off to their defense on a short week. Lad
McConkie quote, if we don't beat ourselves, I feel like
we're a hard team, a hard football team to beat. Again.
They scored thirty points for the first time all year
(33:52):
and didn't punt that's certainly a positive sign facing a
Texans team that allowed eight point one yards per play.
They've They've lost now three straight, including both games since
Brian Callahan was fired and Mike McCoy took over. Six
or seven losses have come by double digit margins. They're
not staying competitive in these contexts. This is the worst
team in the league, and they're missing multiple defensive starters now.
(34:13):
Jeffrey Simmons didn't play, they lost linebacker Ally Gay, they
lost starting safety Savior Woods in game yesterday. Interim coach McCoy,
It's stinks losing. It's frustrating for everyone when you're not
winning football games. We got to find a way to
win one of these games each week. It's tougher to
swallow the pill. That's not a bet end quote in
this better's opinion.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Ugh, this game coming up is not great.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
We got the Jags now playing the Las Vegas Raiders.
Jags are off of buye, the Raiders are off of bye.
Yet the Jags are just a small road favorite here.
Speaker 3 (34:52):
Yeah, this is I think are likely to be our
final emergency betting alders of the show. Let's fire it
up there. If you'll over at the over. Right now,
we're seeing significant support for the over. There are still
forty four and a halfs out there, There are still forty
five's out there. The market has largely moved to forty
five and a half for this bug, and they're expecting
(35:14):
points in bunches. Look aheadline here was Jaguars minus three
forty four and a half. My parting number Jaguars minus
four and a half. Markets open three and forty four
last night, and now we're seeing three as high as
forty five and a half out there right now, forty
four and a half, forty five still available. The Jags
are four and three, but off losses to Seattle and
(35:36):
then a really bad loss to the Rams, but again
the offense score twelve and seven points in the two defeats,
and then the bye week the Raiders again first year
head coaches, who expect improvement off the bye week. Jacksonville
with the first year head coach, the Raiders also with
the first year head coach, Raiders two and five off
as battle loss will ever see against Kansas City where
they got out first down thirty to three. I don't
(35:56):
expect this line to move off of three. I already
talked about where I the total of move any further
moves on this one only going to be injury related
when it comes to injury news. Two teams that did
not play this past Sunday.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
Very quick synopsis on that one, and that was because
I don't know if that's a game anybody wants to
get involved in.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
And here's another stinker of a team for turnovers.
Speaker 1 (36:21):
I cannot, for the life of me understand the Saints team.
What are they tanking at this point? For Steve Sarkisian?
What is going on now? They are very big favorites
here at the Los Angeles Rams, who are off that
interesting game versus the Ravens that was very banged up
Steve Sarkisian.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
Why would they want Steve Sarkisian? And why would sarkis
the whole point of this else, why would the coach
want those jobs?
Speaker 2 (36:47):
You know, Marx Manning is the only thing that makes sense.
Speaker 3 (36:52):
Okay, I'm not getting distracted, but so the coach by
the coach, This coach is going there. It's silly speak. Remember,
everyone needs content, everyone needs clicks. None of those Most
of the ninety nine point nine per cent of what
you're reading about what coach should go. Where is someone
trying to get clicks? Not anyone that knows what the
frick's going on in the upstairs. So take that stuff
(37:14):
at the grain of salt. Look headline here Rams minus
twelve and a half forty five and a half my
powering number, Rams minus twelve. The markets opened thirteen and
a half forty four and a half last night, and
that's exactly what we're seeing today. There are fourteens popping
up for LA. They're not prevailing yet. I wouldn't argue
if you like the Rams lay thirteen and a half,
sooner rather than later that be said. I don't love
(37:37):
this spot for the Rams, you know. So McVeigh has
been really good coming out of the bye week, all right,
that much is true. They're off a win at Baltimore,
a blowout winning London against the Jags, and the bye.
The last two years they came out of the by
with three straight victories, although not all of them by
margin of though three years ago they came out of
the by and lost three in a row. So sample
size Saints again. The offense's witted four turnovers. Now we
(38:00):
have quarterback controversy with Tyler Shuck getting in the ballgame yesterday.
But Tyler Shuck wasn't any good either. Kellen Moore quote.
The quarterback change had more to do with the whole
offense just not playing well and hopefully trying to generate
some sort of spark there. I love Spence, I love Tyler.
I love these guys to death. These are never easy things.
This is an easy thing. No one will have a
(38:21):
new quarterback next year that's not on the roster now.
Neither one of these guys is likely to be a
starter more. We're just not ex shooting and playing at
a high enough standard. We got to find a way
to move the football consistently, protect the football and score point.
And this is a pure full offensive evaluation point. We've
got to evaluate this whole thing in the next forty
eight hours, find the solutions and get the best chance
(38:41):
to win. I'm not into flip flopping quarterbacks. I'm not
into this back and forth game. We have to make
some decisions going forward as the whole offense collectively, with
a lot of positions Spendler Ratler is one and thirteen
and his fourteen NFL starts, I would expect to see
Tyler Shuck as the qbing moving forward to interception. By
the way, it was an accurate pass torn away by
(39:02):
the defender and worth noting. The Saints defense held Tampa
under four yards per play, an impressive defensive showing, even
though the offense tore them all over four times for
the second straight week. Like I said, those are the
type of quotes that make me think there'll be a
QB change. And rather hasn't been good enough.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
To keep his job, and he doesn't deserve to keep
his job. I'm very excited for this game. This is
probably gonna be one of the best games of the season.
The Kansas City Chiefs head to Buffalo. Teddy break this
one down for me. I know the Chiefs play tonight
still on Monday Night Football, but do you think maybe
there's a look ahead?
Speaker 3 (39:37):
Well, look at line was Casey minus one and a
half and fifty and a half my powering number comes
pick him for this game, and I've got the Chiefs poweraders,
the best team in the league. The markets have opened
Kansas City minus one slash minus one and a half
prior to Monday Night Football. They're fifty one and a
half fifty twos out there for the total could Casey
look ahead. Sure they could, but that's not in Casey's problem.
(39:59):
But Casey hasn't been let's blow everybody out every week
team either. You know, they are four and one straight
up their last five and the only game they lost
was the ninety nine yard pick six game against Jacksonville,
where that fourteen point swing made a pretty big difference
in a game that Jags won by three. So if
Kansas City wins today, the betting bandwagon only gets bigger
(40:22):
for a team that already has a pretty big betting
bandwagon right about now. As for Buffalo, pretty big blowout yesday.
Mister Bisky got off the bench. That's all you need
to know. Cokeet two under and sixteen rushing yards. Leaves
had seven sacks of Andy Dalton. They were plus three
in turnovers. They won by two point seven yards per play.
Sean McDermott now nine to oher coffin off a by
quote different attitude and different energy for his team after
(40:44):
losing the last two going into the bye, they did
lose a couple of key pieces of the defensive line.
Ed Oliver got hurt in that ball going and Tae
Kwon Jones didn't play those are two impact players on
the defensive line against an offense that you need some
You need to put some pressure on my homes or
you get picked apart in that contest. Not surprised Casey
(41:05):
is favored here even though my number comes Pick.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
Them all right.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
Sunday Night football, the Seahawks off back to back wins.
Then they played the Commanders who played tonight. This is
going to be an interesting one because is Jade and
Daniels going to be healthy enough to play in this contest?
Speaker 3 (41:24):
Yeah? Like so I didn't mention it, and I should
have mentioned it with Carolina Green Bay. I haven't written
in my notes right here. The Bryce Young versus Andy
Dalton factor is likely to affect that number. Bryce Young
the quarterback that people want to see on the field. He's
the starter in this instance. Daniels and so my number
look at line here Seattle minus two and a half,
last minus three, total of forty six. I made two numbers.
(41:47):
I made a Marriota number and a Daniel's number. The
Daniels number is Seattle minus two and a half. The
Mariota number is Seattle minus four and a half, a
two point difference between the two. The markets opened three
and forty six last night. I'm seeing some three and
a half popping up now at leading indicated books for Washington.
But that will be affected most assuredly by what happens
(42:08):
this evening again Monday Night Football with Mariota behind center
this evening. If Daniels comes back, we will likely see
this number come down. And if it doesn't come back,
it's going to be Mariota moving forward, or at least
for another week, we'll likely see the number go up.
As for Seattle, they're five and two. They're off back
to back wins before the bye. The Monday Night Will
Football win against the Texans and then as well as
(42:30):
the Jags, so they had a national TV win and
a little bit of a shorter buy because they played
on the Monday night. But realistically, you know, Seattle's a
team that the markets have moved on pretty significantly since
started the season. They're one of the surprise teams. And
one of the things that makes me mad about my
struggles in recent weeks is that when we talked about
a formula for winning in October and October you met
(42:53):
on the surprise teams for the markets catch up with
surprise teams Indy good, New England good, Seattle good in
that sense. And I feel like I've been doing the
opposite of what it's supposed to be doing to the
basic strategy for October, and of course that's now coming gone,
So you have to find your new basic strategy for
November and beyond. The November basic strategy is not as
(43:15):
easy as what you want to do in September and October.
That said, this number will move based pretty much exclusively
on A how Washington looks tonight and b which quarterback
is behind center for the Commanders expected to be behind
center by next weekend?
Speaker 2 (43:31):
All right?
Speaker 1 (43:32):
Guy expected to be behind center for the Arizona Cardinals
on Monday Night football versus the Dallas Cowboys. Is Kyler
Murray Cowboys a short home favorite here?
Speaker 3 (43:42):
Yeah, look, so look at ning Dallas three fifty two
and a half. My powering number is Dallas three. The
market's open three and fifty three, and now we're seeing
three and fifty four. So the markets are betting overs
on the Cowboys. And again you can't blame the markets
betting overs and the Cowboys. They went under week one,
and in fact, they went under in the Chicago as well.
(44:02):
The one road game in Chicago, but they still give
up thirty one one points in that and they've gone
over every game before and since the exception of those
two unders. I mean, it's been pretty consistent over team.
And they've cast overs again every game since week the
week three under. So it's five straight over and all
(44:23):
of them with fifty seven points or more. Dak Prescott
no touchdowns, two interceptions, yards for play offense only five
point zero to seven point five. The defense allowed on
hunred svent nine rushing yards at six point four yards
per carry. They allowed four touchdowns in red zone tries.
Dak Prescott quote, all the credit to them, but we
didn't play anywhere close to our standard. We've got to
find a way to be consistent, whether it's home on
(44:44):
the road. Regardless. We're too good. We've got too many
good players, we've got great coaches. Davion Clowney. But just
saying the locker room is lost or should not be
going up and down like we're doing. A guy like that,
when he says it, that's real. So we've got to
look in the mirror. Of course, they're playing without their
top three safeties. League Cooker down Wilson Tonight Thomas. They
put Trevon diggs On into reserve, another key piece of
(45:04):
the secondary. But it's the fifth time that they've allowed
more than six point two yards per carry, the fifth
time they giveing up more than one hundred and forty
four rushing yards. They're just it's not a good defense.
And of course Jerry Jones after the game, I don't
know what's realistic. Could one better player, maybe like Micah Parsons,
if you didn't pay too big a price to have
a better player on defense, possibly help I'm not trying
to be cute, but that's why you go get him.
(45:26):
Could you think you can help your defense? Are we
one player away on defense? I think we're not. I
think we're more than that away. But in my mind
is executing better on defense. So basically, he's trying to
not blame himself for how bad the defense is in
despite the actually traded away their best defensive player. Brian
jotten Hiver is not blaming the defense when you look
at it. I'm just not gonna start with the defense.
I don't think any of us coached and played well enough.
(45:49):
At the end of the day, I think we have
enough good players. I didn't think we played well tonight.
The defense entered the game thirty second, dead last in
the NFL and yards per game, thirtieth in points per game.
You know, it's a bad defense and that's a problem.
That being said, they're facing a team that has found
ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again
(46:10):
and again and again. The Cardinals off five straight losses
and a bye week, the losses coming by one, three, one, four,
and four points thirteen points total. One play in every
game would have made Arizona an undefeated team right now
versus a team that had five straight losses. Yeah, and
the fact that they keep not making that one play. Obviously,
(46:32):
Jonathan Gannon's been on the hot seat. They've got injury concerns,
even with Kyler Murray back Cardinals. I'm not anticipating they're
going to get a ton of betting market support, but
I'm seeing some minus three plus one hundred. Who tell
us the wise guys might take some Arizona here betting
against that Cowboys defense.
Speaker 1 (46:51):
All right, Teddy covers that Teddy underscore covers on all
your social media. Please let everybody know how they can
join you over at Wagertalk dot Com plan on having
up for this week before we get out of here
for wager Talk Today.
Speaker 3 (47:05):
Sure we're in play again five percent pick ticket in
Major League Baseball World Series Game three for the night.
I'm twenty one and seven in the postseason over the
last two years, I'm twelve and four, with my last
sixteen in MLB this year dating back to the end
of the regular season. The baseball has been good. So
check it out on my homepagewg dot Buzz backslash TC.
We appreciate those likes. We appreciate the comments both Kelly
(47:25):
and I getting in the comments section every week. I
try to answer as many as we can. We appreciate
the follows, getting close to a quarter of a million
following us on wager Talk TV. If you haven't done
so good, instional urse every time these videos go live.
Thank you for your support. We really appreciate it. Best
of luck with all your bets this week. Guys.
Speaker 1 (47:43):
Cheers, Yes, thank you guys once again for hanging out
with us here every single Monday.
Speaker 2 (47:48):
On the opening line report hang around.
Speaker 1 (47:51):
Wager Talk Today is up in about ten minutes with
Andy Lane
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