Beat the NFL Betting Market! | 2025 NFL Week 4 Odds & Predictions | 9/22/25 - NFL Opening Line Report

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome into the Opening line Report, Kelly Stewart Here on
this beautiful Monday morning on the East coast. Teddy covers
they're on a beautiful Monday morning on the West Coast.
We're gonna get right into it. This is a information show, guys.
Remember we are The opening line report numbers came out.
I think I saw circa tweet right before I went
to bed after Sunday Night Football. There week four NFL line,

(00:24):
So I of course had to update my little survivor spreadsheet, Teddy,
because that's just the kind of person that I am.
So we're gonna go over some of these opening numbers.
We're going to compare them to your power ratings, maybe
talk about what some of these lines were over the summer,
and really start to dive deep into what we saw
last week and what kind of tangible information we can
use for this week. Ready to get into Monday night

(00:47):
football before we get into Week four.

Speaker 2 (00:49):
Sure, let's do that one. I'm minor correction. I don't
care what the lines were over the summer.

Speaker 3 (00:53):
The lines of performer were.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
Those were based on off season power Ratingsocus on on
opening line report of courses. The loc head lines from
last week, so we see how much the one game
affected the perception of these two teams.

Speaker 3 (01:08):
And that's the focus.

Speaker 2 (01:10):
So lots of powering numbers, lots of We could have
a handful of mercy betting alerts this morning.

Speaker 4 (01:15):
So well, let me get ready.

Speaker 1 (01:17):
I'm very excited. I love those mergency betting alerts. We
got to get on those swift and fast, and that's
why we do the show bright and early on Monday morning.
Let's get into Monday Night football. The Detroit Lions Baltimore Ravens.
We've seen some interesting line moves here.

Speaker 4 (01:32):
Talk to me.

Speaker 1 (01:32):
About well, I think arguably one of the best teams
in the NFC versus arguably one of the best teams
in the AFC.

Speaker 2 (01:38):
Sure, and of course we talked about this game last Monday,
and I gave you an emergency betting alert on the
Lions plus six because that line couldn't hold. And it
didn't hold. You know, we're looking at four four and
a half right now, and it bottomed at four and
then we've seen some Ravens buyback up to four and
a half and this to me feels a little bit
like a sharp square di eye game.

Speaker 3 (01:58):
The pros loved Baltimore. They love Baltimore.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
So my friends are telling me that the Ravens are
a field goal better than anyone else in the league.

Speaker 3 (02:08):
My powering numbers don't show that.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
My numbers say that Baltimore is one of the elite teams.
And there's you know, obviously five six teams at the
very top of the power ratings. But there are those
in the markets that right now have Baltimore a field
goal better than anyone, are close to a field goal
two to three points better than anybody. If they dominate tonight,
maybe I'll have them in my powering to that number,

(02:31):
but currently I don't so. And the markets obviously with
opening at six and bet down to four and now
we're seeing four and a half's that is pro money
on Baltimore, totally seeing nothing but over money.

Speaker 3 (02:43):
And you know, considering.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
The potential potency of these two offense, I'm not surprised
that said at fifty three and a half, I'm not sensing.

Speaker 3 (02:52):
It's going to get a whole lot higher than it is.

Speaker 2 (02:53):
So urgency right now, No, this number is going to
stick around four and a half, fifty three and a
half now and kickoff, all.

Speaker 4 (03:01):
Right, let's go to Thursday night football.

Speaker 1 (03:03):
Primarily the reason why I played the Saints yesterday, and
we're going to get into that game and why they
got away from the Saints rather quickly. But the Seattle
Seahawks take on the Arizona Cardinals, San France sneaks out
a win there over Arizona by one point. That was
an interesting final result because well, that's what I like
to talk about on the Kelly Murray Show. Games at
Land one. It always is hilarious to me. Let's talk

(03:26):
about Seattle. Now, Arizona is minus.

Speaker 3 (03:29):
One, sure, and I'm tempted. Let's just talk about it.

Speaker 2 (03:34):
Look, headline Arizona minus two and a half total of
forty five. My powering number says the Seahawks should be favored.
Here my powering number of Seattle minus one. The markets
have Arizona minus one right now, total forty three and
a half. We haven't seen any movement on this total.
I'm not anticipating necessarily any movement. Could see a little
bit under money, but nothing shocking. But from a side standpoint,

(03:58):
I would not be surprised. So the Seahawks were a
team that a lot of people.

Speaker 3 (04:01):
Hated this offseason. I'm one of them.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
We were against Seattle in my season win report, and
I expected this team to go through some pretty ugly
growing pains, and through three weeks of the season, Seattle
looks better than people thought they were gonna look. Myself included.
Sam Donald looks very comfortable in that offense. What we're
seeing with Cooper Cup and Jackson Smith, Nijibba and Tory Horton,

(04:26):
the fifth round rookie out of Colorado State who's been
phenomenal for them, and he's a guy who has hurt
his senior year. He dropped in the draft as a result,
but yesterday a ninety five guard partner turned touchdown. He
looks like a star already, So they have wide receiver depth.
Donald's look good, The defense has looked good for Seattle,

(04:46):
and Arizona's offense isn't working right now. It's gonna get
worse with the James Connor injury. Now he's out for
the year. You know, we don't worry too much about
running back injuries, but Connor is kind of one of
those heart and soul guys.

Speaker 3 (04:57):
For this team.

Speaker 2 (04:59):
And boy that struggled against San Francisco multiple key drops.
You know, whether it's a Zay Jones drop that would
have allowed them to run out the clock instead of
punting back to San Francisco for the game winning drive,
or the Mars Marvin Harrison dropped a touchdown pass, or
the Demarcado dropped a third down pass that led to
a field goal instead of a touchdown. The pass game's
not working, the run game's not working, the Office of

(05:20):
Lines not controlling the flow. They're issues right now for Arizona.
And of course they missed a field goal again that
loomed large in a one point loss. You know, four
point one yards per play for Arizona, one for three
in the red zone. These are ongoing problems, you know.
I mean Colias Campbell won that game for Arizona of safety,
you know, the holding in the end zone, and then

(05:41):
they found a way to lose it. Certainly the short
turnaround gives them an opportunity, but again early in the season,
we don't mind road teams in short turnaround spots. Not
surprised at all if we see some Seattle money between now.

Speaker 4 (05:56):
And Teddy and that could not have looked better. Yesterday.

Speaker 1 (06:03):
You and I watched this game, and I shouldn't say
we didn't even watch it, just every single time it
popped on red zone. The Vikings were in the red
zone and they looked rather dominant. Again Kevin O'Connell proving
it doesn't matter who's under center for him, he's got
this offense clicking.

Speaker 4 (06:19):
They're facing the Steelers.

Speaker 1 (06:21):
That were I would argue, maybe gifted a win by
the New England Patriots.

Speaker 2 (06:26):
Sure look headline here, Pittsburgh one and forty one. Of course,
this game is in Dublin. It's an early star game.
Don't sleep in if you want to bet. Steelers and
Vikings six thirty am Pacific time, start nine thirty on
the East coast. So look headline Pittsburgh minus one. My
powering number Minnesota minus one and a half. Opened one

(06:47):
and a half and forty one.

Speaker 3 (06:49):
Last night. We've seen a big move towards the Vikings.

Speaker 2 (06:52):
This morning, I'm seeing two and a half out there,
two and a halfs with juice and threes are starting to
pop up. Now at three, I would expect we'll see
a little bit of take back for Pittsburgh. So I'm
not gonna emergency beting on learned this one, even though
you can find too an answer right now I'm not
convinced they'll be there forever, but at three I would
think that we'll get some buyback. So this is a

(07:13):
situation where the other's lines already moved. The best of
the number is gone. And of course, you know, Minnesota
had what two defensive touchdowns, they forced five turnovers in
yesterday's game, But the key was Carson Wentz. You know,
one key was not Carson or the key was Minnesota's defense.
The key may have been Christian Darisaw being back on
the offse of line for Minnesota and Harrison Smith, two

(07:36):
guys who made their season debuts and had an impact
immediately when you're a left tackle comes back after missing
eleven months. And then you know Harrison Smith that he
deflected the pass that got returned for a pick six,
certainly positive signs injury wise for Minnesota, you know, I mean,

(07:57):
And of course, let's not forget Carson Wentz was sitting
at home a month ago. He didn't have any preseason
with Minnesota, and that concerned me when it came to
this past week's game. And of course it didn't matter
against Cincinnati beause the defense is able to control the
flow and Wentz was playing with a lead. That could
happen here because Pittsburgh. I mean, you say that New

(08:18):
England gifted them the victory. I mean there's certainly something
to be said for that. The yards per play Pittsburgh
four point one, New England five point two. Two of
the Patriots five turnovers came to the Steelers two yard line.
They did sack Drake May five times, so the defense
did some things right. When you forced five turnover then
get five sacks, you're feeling good. But Aaron Rodgers just

(08:39):
one hundred and thirty nine passing yards, only one play
for Pittsburgh of twenty plus yards in that ballgame. This
offense is an explosive and let's call it how it
is right now. Aaron Rodgers is not very good like
last year and the year before and the year before that,
But be sure it gets a lot of publicity from
a situation standpoint worth noting Week five by for Pittsburgh,

(09:04):
this is their last game before the buybe We spent
all this time talking about teams after the bye week,
when in fact, before the bye week is often a
better bed on spot for the squad. No one wants
to go into two weeks off, especially two weeks under
Tomlin coming off back to back losses, so there's certainly
something to be said for the effort for Pittsburgh. Worth

(09:25):
noting also, Minnesota will play back to back games overseas,
so with out the benefit of next week at this time,
having stayed in Europe already.

Speaker 4 (09:34):
All right, let's talk about the Eagles. Head into the box.

Speaker 1 (09:37):
Teddy pand up very very lucky to catch that Eagles
ticket with the press yesterday on end Zone Live. That
was absolutely a crazy result, Teddy. When those types of
results happen, what do you chalk it up as just
bad luck? Do you chalk it up as things aren't
going my way? How do you look at it and

(09:58):
maybe not overreact for those at home that probably had
the Rams, great number plus four and a half, things
like that.

Speaker 2 (10:05):
So I had the Rams, my clients in the Rams
last week. I had the Broncos, my clients of the Broncos.
Week one, we had the Cowboys and Eagles over you
know where. They scored the first eight possessions, ninth possession
they fumbl the red zone and then the lightning to land.

Speaker 3 (10:17):
They never score another point.

Speaker 4 (10:19):
What an awful trifecta.

Speaker 2 (10:21):
Yeah, that's a nice way to And that's the difference
between me starting the season eighty percent. You know, I'm
not a high volume player. If I didn't have those
three beats, I'd be hitting eighty percent right now. Instead,
I'm hitting fifty percent, you know, through the first three weeks.

Speaker 3 (10:33):
So what do you do?

Speaker 2 (10:35):
This is something that's worth noting, all right. It's true
in poker, it's true in sports betting. It doesn't even out.
If you're on right sides, you're gonna take more bad
beats than if you're on wrong sides. It's plain and simple.
You know, you might get some more lucky ones if
you're on wrong side, but you're on right sides, the

(10:56):
bad beats are coming to you. It doesn't even out.

Speaker 3 (11:00):
That's it. We all get lucky wins.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
Sometimes we get stupid lucky wins and we kind of
forget about them when you go through a stretch where
you can't win the close games that you're supposed to win,
like La yesterday. It was pretty much the right side
and found a way to lose this. But it's the
nature of the.

Speaker 3 (11:15):
Game, all right.

Speaker 2 (11:16):
I'm still pissed off about it Monday morning. That's why
one of these things.

Speaker 3 (11:20):
I like this.

Speaker 2 (11:21):
I like doing about the show is it's cathartic. You
go through it, you get it out of your system
and you can look at the next week cleanly. But
I mean that loss is still affecting me today. It
affected me all night, all day yesterday, you know. So
I'm glad you got a moment of enjoyment out of
it with pres But it really freaking sucked when you
had the right side the whole way, and it obviously

(11:41):
didn't pan out that way. But they're gonna happen, and
the answer is suck it up or don't do this.

Speaker 4 (11:48):
You know, there you go. There's no middle grounded.

Speaker 2 (11:55):
Their issues for Philadelphia right now, by the way, talking
about Eagles, but we talked about Eagles.

Speaker 3 (11:59):
Bucks.

Speaker 4 (12:00):
That where we are, Yes, that's where we are.

Speaker 3 (12:02):
All right.

Speaker 2 (12:02):
Look headline Philly minus two and a half, forty six.
My powering number is Philly minus one and a half.
The markets are at three for the Eagles and forty
fives where they opened. I'm seeing forty four and a
half prevailing number. I'm not sensing it's going to go
down any further. I'm not seeing any ground swell of
Tampa money yet. Right now, three and forty five slash

(12:25):
forty four and a half is where I expect it
to stay for at least the time being until we
get injury report stuff. Now, sa Kuon Barkley, we have
to talk about Saquon Barkley for a minute. You know,
three games, he's averaging three point three yards per carry.
Last year he had three one hundred and forty five
rush attempts in the regular season, another ninety one in

(12:45):
the playoffs. His previous career high came in twenty twenty two,
when he had two ninety five in the regular seas
and eighteen in the playoffs. This is an eight year
veteran with a lot of miles on those legs, and
it feels to me, at least right now, take one
of the same burst. We're not getting the big plays
from Phillies running game. And again, when you're three point
three yards per carry, I mean you're eighteen of forty

(13:08):
six yesterday, that is a concern. That being said, it's
a concern for a team. It's finding ways to win games.
You know, three or three in the red zone and
they only allowed one of four in the red zone.
So that red zone efficiency on both sides of the football,
and obviously the Jordan Davis blocks field goal at the
end of the game. Philly's now nineteen and one straight

(13:29):
up their last twenty games, you know, by far the
best team in the NFL in that span. That being said,
there are things to like about Tampa right now. In
three games, the Bucks have trailed in the fourth quarter
in all three and they've won all three. And if
you ask me, would I rather have a team that
opens the season with three blowouts or three come from

(13:50):
behind wins, I'll choose the latter anytime.

Speaker 3 (13:53):
Now.

Speaker 2 (13:53):
That team builds confidence, whereas a blowout team mat they
get a little.

Speaker 3 (13:56):
Fat and happy sometimes. You know, look at Green.

Speaker 2 (13:58):
Bay Baker Mayfield quote resilient group. We stick together the
whole team, and one part of it or phased a
little down, others have to step it up and be
there for you. That's what this team is all about.
We support each other no matter what. Tampa just one
to five in the red zone. They had fourteen penalties,
they had a field goal blocked in return for a touchdown,
and they still won the game straight up. They outgained

(14:20):
the Jets by one point two yards per play. Todd
Bowles after the game three and Ozero is important. It's
important to win in this league. A lot of teams
be crying because they lost close games. We lost them
last year, we're winning them this year's. We're extremely happy
about that. Two teams that are pretty happy about the
early season performances. One team Man has clearly shown they

(14:42):
have the resilience to come back from deficits in the
fourth quarter. Philly managed to do it yesterday, but again
they lost that game. They just said, and Sundays the
whole thing college football, you expect kicking zaniness, you really do.
And then one of the things they always loved is
that Saturday's kicking zaneus and special teams that are gonna
cost you on your bets, and Sundays the kickers make

(15:03):
their kicks. Not Yesterday obviously had a huge difference for
Philadelphia and LA. But right now, this line's not moving
three forty four and a half and I'm not sensing
that it's likely to go anytime soon.

Speaker 1 (15:20):
All Right, just over sixteen hundred of you guys watching
with us live here on the opening line, report Teddy.
Before we get in to the Saints at the Bills,
let everybody kind of know what's going on over at
wager talk dot com this week.

Speaker 4 (15:33):
What you got up for your clients.

Speaker 2 (15:35):
Yeah, I'm bitching and moaning because of the law of
losses and they're frustrating. That said, we went seven and
two across sports this weekend, six and one in football.
I can't complain too much. It was a good weekend
for the clients. We made a bunch of money. I
just wanted it to be better and win them all.
And that's you know. I put a lot of work
into the NFL this week. This was the week we're

(15:56):
supposed to break out. We went too and one, but
the one was frickin' the Rams and that's pretty annoying.
That being said, locked and load, I'm not in play
for Monday n football. I have a single best bet
on MLB four today went four and on on college
football Saturday. I love this college football card this week,
and of course of the NFL.

Speaker 3 (16:14):
You hear my first takes right here.

Speaker 2 (16:15):
We'll have plays posted throughout the week, so check out
my home page WT Buzz Backslash TC. Don't buy a
play again. I'm board with the package again. Pick buying
isn't for everyone.

Speaker 3 (16:24):
I get it.

Speaker 2 (16:25):
But if you want to partner up now, i'd be
a pretty good time. I'm pissed off, I'm motivated, and
we're in decent current form. So for what it's worth
you check out any of the extended service packages. You
can get a monthly package, a weekly package, rest of
the year package. Great deals on my page wt dot
Buzz backslash TC.

Speaker 1 (16:44):
Today I found an interesting tweet regarding the next game.
Saints are sixteen and a half point underdogs at Buffalo
this week. This is New Orleans' biggest underdog in any
game since November of nineteen seventy five. The matchup that
day was Archie Manning and Frank Tarkenton for the Vikings.
Very interesting, very very interesting. Fran Tarkentin, there's no k

(17:08):
at the end of oh, well, you know what, Blame
Evan Abrams.

Speaker 4 (17:10):
He had it wrong. I wasn't born yet, so I
don't remember. But I did find that to be very interesting.

Speaker 1 (17:16):
This is a huge number kind of break down what
these double digit spreads mean for people looking to bet
the side either side of this game.

Speaker 2 (17:26):
So, and I can't believe that the Katrina year that
they weren't big good. You know, they had to be
two touchdown dogs a couple of times that year, because
that was an awful team. Aaron Brooks was the quarterback
of the Katrina year, and I think they won three
games that season, and things went pretty south pretty fast
post Katrina for a team that didn't have a home

(17:48):
My look aadline here was Buffalo sixteen and a half
total forty seven and a half. Again the Bettable numbers
from last week. My powering number only has the Bills
fourteen and a half for the game. When you start
getting into the spreads above two touchdowns, I factor in
home field less and less.

Speaker 3 (18:06):
I think I make homefield one point for those.

Speaker 2 (18:09):
Games, and I wouldn't argue if you made it zero
because there's not much of a home field edge in
that contest. And obviously the Saints look pretty dismal yesterday.
So my part rating number one is fourteen for the game.
That said, I'm not anticipating a groundswell of Saints support.

Speaker 3 (18:23):
In this one.

Speaker 2 (18:24):
Open sixteen and a half forty seven and a half
last night. We've seen some forty eights pop this morning.
When you talk about double digit spreads in the NFL,
I don't play a lot of the games.

Speaker 3 (18:35):
I really don't.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
This is not a league that is as popular as
it is because it doesn't have parody. And the Saints
certainly have a better game in them than what we
saw yesterday. Yesterday they were pretty awful. And Buffalo is
most assuredly the type of team that we've seen it
over and over again in the Sean McDermott era.

Speaker 3 (18:54):
We trust the Bills to beat up the weaker teams. No,
these are the games that they often have hiccups in.
I'll leave it at that. The four New.

Speaker 2 (19:03):
Orleans they had issues on the offensive line yesterday're going
to be shorting? Was it the right tackle inactive? The
guard didn't travel with the team last week. The defense
was pretty awful in terms of Sam Darnold. I mean
a lot of twelve point one yards per pass attempt.
That's disaster territory. They did stuff to run though, you know,
only two point six yards per carry all out if

(19:24):
you look at a positive sign. But again, you can
give up a block punt touchdown, you give up a
punt return touchdown. The box score lies for this game.
It says the game was even first downs and yard
as it was. That said, when you're dominant on special
teams and again punt return touchdown block punt that led
to a touchdown. When especially interdominant, it makes your offensiveistics

(19:46):
look weaker and your defenses look weaker because you're traveling
longer fields. Are shorter fields on offense, and they're allowing
opponents to travel longer fields on defense because they're winning
the field division war. So special team success like Seattle
showed can lead to box scores that lie. And of

(20:06):
course Spencer Ratleery's not answering questions positively right now. He's
oh to nine as a starter. Saints are owen seven
their last seven, and penalties continue to be a problem.

Speaker 3 (20:16):
Again.

Speaker 2 (20:17):
It's a first year, first time head coach, and Kellen Moore,
I've not been impressed with how well coached New Orleans
earlier in the season. They're averaging more than ten penalties
per game for Buffalo. There are some questions, you know,
is this run defense following ball? They got lit up
by Baltimore. Miami had plenty of success moving to football
to They allowed ten to fifteen third down conversions last

(20:39):
week and three of three red zone touchdowns. You know,
after the two weeks of the season, they the best
third down defense in the league, and that obviously not
the case. But of course Josh Allen didn't have any
interceptions and James Cook got one hundred rushing yards, and
when that happens, the Bills are going to win. But
Josh Allen didn't complete a pass throwing more than ten
yards down field.

Speaker 3 (21:00):
Dermott good win. Never easy.

Speaker 2 (21:02):
I thought the grit, the mental toughness of our football
team was on his play throughout the game, particularly in.

Speaker 3 (21:06):
The fourth quarter. There. I worry about the Bills looking
right past New Orleans.

Speaker 2 (21:11):
I don't want Buffalo in this spot coming off a
big divisional win they played on Thursday night, extra time
repair just.

Speaker 3 (21:17):
Like Kareem Bay had.

Speaker 2 (21:20):
You know, yeah the Bills. This has Buffalo falls asleep
with the two touchdown lead written all over.

Speaker 4 (21:27):
That does not shock me in the slightest.

Speaker 1 (21:30):
But I cannot say I would want any part of
this Saints team that yesterday.

Speaker 3 (21:36):
Let me push back. Wasn't the Saints the team you
loved yesterday?

Speaker 4 (21:39):
I love the Saints. I thought it was a good
spot for them.

Speaker 2 (21:41):
Wouldn't So when you love a team one week and
they get annihilated, isn't the next week the right time
to come back with.

Speaker 1 (21:47):
Them, you would think, but Teddy, they had opportunities against
the Cardinals, they had opportunities against the Niners at home.
Then they get blown out at Seattle, a couple of
wonky special teams touchdowns, some touchdowns.

Speaker 4 (22:00):
I turned it off. It was twenty one nothing.

Speaker 1 (22:02):
I tweeted, you know what, There went my five and
oh day and the super condest next and I went
and enjoyed my afternoon because those are the types of
things that I'm not gonna let ruin a good morning,
and so I kind of just let it be. Now
they're still on the road at a team that I
would probably argue is the best team in the AFC.

Speaker 4 (22:22):
And you're right, I would agree with you. Buffalo doesn't
care about this game. Why would they?

Speaker 1 (22:27):
But we did see last Thursday night start. You know,
everybody would have their thoughts about the Dolphins, and the
Dolphins were in the mix late.

Speaker 4 (22:34):
So I'm with you.

Speaker 1 (22:35):
I understand not overreacting to one week, but I think
this is now coupled with several weeks where I'm like,
Buffalo could win this game thirty four to ten, and
none of us would be surprised, not at all.

Speaker 3 (22:46):
They're a lot better than New Orleans.

Speaker 4 (22:48):
And that's the unfortunate part here.

Speaker 1 (22:50):
Okay, let's talk about the Panthers. The Panthers spoiled a
lot of Falcons survivor betters.

Speaker 4 (22:56):
Yesterday, and the Patriots we're a team.

Speaker 1 (22:59):
I'm looking at survivor this week, and my partners already
text me absolutely not. You were out of your mind,
And I said, okay, okay, I'm just trying to zig
a little bit. This is the only spot that I
think they can win this football game.

Speaker 2 (23:12):
So look at line here in New England five forty
five and a half. My party numbers only four for
the contest. Market's opened four and forty four last night.
And what are we seeing today five and a half.
Early money for New England total forty four. I'm even
seeing some forty three and a half there. So we've
seen Patriots money. We've seen under money from the get

(23:36):
go in this one. And look, Carolina did some things.

Speaker 3 (23:41):
Very right yesterday.

Speaker 2 (23:42):
You know, they had to pick six, but they were
out gained four point one yards, were played a five
point zero. They had no rush longer than eight yards,
only one completion longer than twelve Bryce Young, only one
hundred and twenty one yards passing at five yards per
pass attempt.

Speaker 3 (23:55):
Those are not good numbers. That said, they put a defense.

Speaker 2 (24:00):
You know, their defense came to play, first shutout since
twenty twenty, the most lopsided win since twenty fifteen. You
know quote, we were all fed up. Our bond is
just so tight. We wanted to go out there and
do it right. Bryce Young. We had an emphasis on
urgency to start fast, the events, getting a stop right
off the bat, the office, going down and getting a score.

(24:21):
I think that was big defense event. Derek Brown, this
is what we've been waiting for coming out of camp.
I feel like this is how we executed during training camp,
the physicality we had during camp to be able to
come out here and put it on this play and
get the results we did today. We're happy about it.
You want Carolina off a win.

Speaker 3 (24:37):
I don't.

Speaker 2 (24:39):
You know Patriots twenty six first downs, only fourteen points. Turnovers, well,
they have five of them. You know, they out gained
Pittsburgh by more than a full yard per play. They
held this dealers to four point one yards per play.
But you know, when you have five turnover games, you
don't win. Mike Rabel. We don't need to lose a
football game to know the turnovers are very hard to overcome.
They raised all the good things that you do. You know,

(25:00):
Drake May sacked twice through a pick, lost a fumble,
or mondre Stevenson fumble twice and saw the bench Antonio
Gibson fumbled. You know, May quote just hurting ourselves.

Speaker 3 (25:09):
It hurts.

Speaker 2 (25:10):
It's one of those things that just kept piling on.
And of course two of their five turnovers came at
the Steelers two yard line. So it certainly is the
type of scenario where I'm not surprised. We've seen New
England money Ringland now played Pittsburgh yesterday but screwed up.
It's supposed to be a bounced back spot at home.
Carolina is not a team that vetters expect necessarily to
go on winning streaks, and they sounded a little bit

(25:32):
fat and happy off snapping that skid. All that being said,
I mean, are the Patriots really a team we want
to be laying five and a half points with.

Speaker 3 (25:41):
I won't be on New England this week. I don't
think so, not at all, and on it.

Speaker 2 (25:46):
Right now, I'm not seeing at five and a half
I don't see this line going a whole lot higher. Again,
my powering number is only four for the Patriots the Markets.
I'm moving in the other direction from the line that
was four and a half last night.

Speaker 4 (25:57):
CEE Team.

Speaker 1 (25:58):
My survivor partner text me, I would rather sit in
the electric chair than use my money. This is a
real quote from him. Then bet my money on the
New England Patriots. I said, no.

Speaker 4 (26:11):
Problem, We're going to move right along to another option.

Speaker 1 (26:15):
It's probably going to be Houston. We'll get into that
game here in a minute, Teddy, We've got the Falcons
taking on the Browns. Browns was my bright spot on
bet on It this week. I said, this is my
barking dog. I think they have a chance to win
out right here at home. Falcons couldn't have looked worse
versus Carolina. You kind of already touched on Carolina didn't
look all that great.

Speaker 4 (26:36):
Let's break down this one.

Speaker 3 (26:38):
YEA, Atlanta had a pretty rough game.

Speaker 2 (26:40):
Look aheadline here Atlanta pick them against Washington total of
forty four. My powering numbers came Commanders minus two, the
Markets two and a half slash three last night. I'm
not seeing many threes out there right now. There's one
a DK that's the only one that I see on
the Odds Logic live screen. So two and a half

(27:00):
the prevailing number here for Washington. Total sitting at forty five,
down from forty five.

Speaker 3 (27:06):
And a half last night.

Speaker 2 (27:07):
There are still a couple of forty five and a
half's out there as we speak. I mean, the Commanders
certainly did something right with Mariota at QB nine point
nine yards per past temp and we may well see
Mariota again this week with Jane Len Daniels ailing.

Speaker 3 (27:25):
They scored forty one points.

Speaker 2 (27:26):
The offense had seven point four yards per play, one
point seven yards per play edge over the Raiders two
hundred rushing yards. I mean, you have two hundred rushing
yards at six point three yards per carry and your
backup quarterbacks throwing for nine point nine yards per pass attempt.
That's a really strong offensive performance or a really deep,
a really bad defensi performance. Like we said from the

(27:47):
Raiders part return touchdown two. There are some issues on
the injury front for Washington. They got cluster injuries in
the secondary right now, Will Harris, Percy Butler, Marshaun Lattimore,
amos All banged up after yesterday's ball game, and that's
certainly a concern for Atlanta, who was pretty bad. You know,

(28:11):
he talked about Michael Pennock's thirty six attempts one hundred
and seventy two yards four point eight yards for passing them,
no touchdowns, two interceptions, one of them that picked six.
They didn't run the ball effectively five point seven yards
per carry. They're out game Carolina by nearly a yard
per play, but they got shut out. They didn't make
it for the red zone. They went owing three on
fourth downs. Atlanta scored just one touchdown in the past
two games, and that touchdown came literally when Minnesota let

(28:35):
them score the touchdowns so the Vikings would get the
ball back. You know, there's ongoing kicker issues now remember
young Hoku got cut. They brought in Parker Romo, and
Parker Romo miss multiple field goals, and yesterday's ball games.
You know, this is the last game before the buye

(28:55):
for Atlanta, so there is urgency here for the Falcons
as home dog. Is that being said, Washington has taken
the I mean again my part name of numbers two.
We're seeing two and a half and three, So We're
seeing at least some early market support for the Commanders,
but not enough to hold this line at a field goal.

Speaker 1 (29:14):
All right, Browns are headed to Detroit. Detroit plays tonight, Teddy,
and you always tell me here on Monday mornings. Look,
if you like Detroit, about him now. If you don't
like Detroit tonight, bet against him now.

Speaker 3 (29:28):
Sure.

Speaker 2 (29:28):
And so I'm gonna say something in reference to that
has to do with part this is this is a
parlay spot, all right. And I keep on getting yelled
at from one of my wise guy buddies who calls
me after the show and critiques me, and he's like,
you gotta tell him the parlay. Don't straight bet parlay.
If you want to bet against Detroit, parlay against Detroit tonight,

(29:51):
with against Detroit next week. If you want to parlay
on Detroit, you bet on Detroit tonight and then on
Detroit next week. And that's a better ro than just
straight betting the two bets. So that does make sense
if you have the opportunity to do that, it doesn't hurt.
And in terms of locking in the best of the number,
great advice, and I always appreciate you. Know again, I

(30:13):
don't mind if I get criticized, right, I don't do
everything right, and it's really important, especially when you're in
space for a long time.

Speaker 3 (30:19):
Oh he's alleged, shut up, tell me when I'm wrong.

Speaker 2 (30:22):
You know it's okay, because you need that constant feedback.
You need that constant appraisal of what you're doing. You
end up like the Buffalo Building. And I'm a little
fat and happy when you're playing the New Orleans Saints
that week. Anyhow, look aheadline here Detroit nine and a half,
forty six and a half my powery number going into

(30:42):
money in their football Detroit ten. The markets right now,
eight and a half and forty five the number. There
are some forty five and a half's out there that
leading indicator books are down to forty five on this Boggain.
And look Cleveland, you know to say they stole that
game yesterday. The defense has been dominant and now they
have a running game with quin Shawn Judkins, the rookie

(31:03):
who got eight ninety four yards in the ground yesterday.
But the Packers gained just two point six yards per
carrying that cup bog and Cleveland came in with a
number one all overall defense and the defense dominated the contest,
you know, complimentary football. That being said, they also went
zero and three straight up and against the spread off
a win last year. And some of the quotes, I

(31:23):
mean out of yesterday's game a little bit happy, a
little bit they're not fat and happy, but bad teams
off a win, teams that aren't used to winning off
of victory.

Speaker 3 (31:35):
Sometimes they don't have that same level of effort the
following the week. So you know, and of.

Speaker 2 (31:40):
Course, let's not forget Cleveland's offense is not about to
get a whole lot better anytime soon. They're still playing
without both starting offs of tackles, and Joe Flacco is
if your ranking starting quarterbacks, Flacco's near the bottom at
this stage of his career.

Speaker 1 (31:54):
All right, Teddy, So question just because I noticed the
comments section. Not necessarily on the show, but other shows
they do sometimes, like the Survivor Talk Detroit. In this
spot you mentioned, Hey, look this is the browns now
here on the road.

Speaker 4 (32:09):
Do you think this is a home game that Detroit loses.

Speaker 3 (32:14):
No, okay, let's see what happens.

Speaker 2 (32:17):
You know, is Detroit kind of coming fat and happy
off a Monday night football upset and look completely past
them maybe.

Speaker 4 (32:23):
Maybe good point. So we'll keep an eye on tonight's game.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
Another game that I have listed on my survivor sheet
is the Texans. The Titans, Boy, oh boy, did they
look okay week one?

Speaker 2 (32:35):
Right.

Speaker 4 (32:35):
I came on the show and said, hey.

Speaker 1 (32:37):
If Cam Woard's receivers could catch the ball, Denver was
going to lose that football game. But ever since they
have just looked absolutely dreadful. A lot of people are
saying Callahan might be the first coach fired. Brian Dable
may have something to say about that, or Mike McDaniel.
We'll see how the next couple of weeks ago, But
talk to me about this Tennessee team headed into Houston.

Speaker 2 (33:00):
Before I do that, let's get an emergency betting alert
out for this one, because it's time Texans bet them
sooner rather than later. The look aheadline here Texans minus
seven minus nine. The markets opened seven and thirty nine
and a half last night, and we're seeing signs that

(33:20):
this line is going to move to seven and a
half any minute. It's already moved to seven and a
half at a number of books. So if you want Houston,
there are sevens available right now. And again my party
number says this line should be nine. This is circle
the wagon's time for a Texan. I mean, you want
to talk about tough beats, The Texas have had three
tough ones to open the season. They snatched defeat from

(33:41):
the jobs of victory every week. Week one, they had
the rams they were driving for the game winning score
and Okawaly fumbled in the red zone when they're about
to be la that cost in the game. Week two
against Tampa, they the miss two point conversion, the miss
sack on fourth and ten, and then allowed the game
when he touched down with six seconds left. Week three,
tied ten to ten, Nico Collins catches it is a

(34:04):
first down. They're under three minutes to play for the
Jacks twenty. She's just gonna run out the clock and
win that game. And then Nico fumble. So they have
literally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in all
three games. And you know, finger pointing at the coach,
finger pointing at the quarterback. You know, three straight games,

(34:25):
this offense hasn't gotten the twenty strouded five hundred ninety
nine yards in two touchdown passes through three games. You know,
new offerens quitter Nick Kayley. This offense gonna work issues
still on the offsive line, no run game to speak of,
No receiver other than Collins has really stepped up. And
of course we're talking about Lanta Price with Houston. Last
year they had ten wins, eight of them came by

(34:46):
single digits. This isn't necessarily a blowout team. That being said,
Tennessee is a blowout team. And that's on the negative.
The offense line has been over overmatched, really has, and
this is a mismatch when you talk about Houston's defensive
front versus Tennessee off to the front. Cam Warren's under
constant pressure. Sacked four times, pick six in the first possession.
Tony Pollard only two point eight yards per carry. You know,

(35:09):
worth noting some of the quotes from the other team
from Indy.

Speaker 3 (35:14):
About Tennessee yesterday.

Speaker 2 (35:15):
This is Tennessee all and to Tennessee team where the
head coach is already on the hot seat. You know,
he said the Titans looked sluggish during pregame warmups. We're like,
they don't want to play today, And I think that's
how we found our edge today. It's just mentally we
thought we wanted to play more than they did. You know,
Daniel Jones from the Colts talking about Tennessee. You know
home fans booing. When you hear that and sense it,

(35:36):
you try to take advantage of it. Worry about the
chemistry on Tennessee right now, and certainly they've lost nine
straight games going back to last year. They're playing without
two fifths of their offs of line. Laugh, them and
Zeitler both hurt, and they had twenty three penalties coming
into yesterday's game. They had ate more in yesterday's game.
And you know, really ill time penalties for Tennessee. I

(36:01):
have the Titans and the Saints clearly as my bottom
two teams in the NFL right now, and again you
want to make money with bottom feeders in the NFL.
September eighth of time to do it.

Speaker 1 (36:12):
Touche as somebody who loves disgusting underdogs. That will not
be on the Titans this week, Teddy, All right, fresh
in our memory is how bad Russell Wilson is and
the New York Giants two interceptions last night, and I said,
all right, I'm going to bed nice easy under on
the cash.

Speaker 4 (36:29):
Though.

Speaker 1 (36:29):
Shout out to John Murray from Last Call he gave
us that one before he signed off. So I will
take Russell's shortcomings and not be able to beat a
mediocre Chiefs team. But now we've got the Los Angeles
Chargers headed into New York.

Speaker 4 (36:43):
I mentioned Brian Daviles. Seed is getting hotter.

Speaker 2 (36:48):
This is going to be a Pros versus Joe's game, absolutely,
because this spot here is horrific for the Chargers, for
what it's worth, horrific. Look headline, LA six and a half,
forty five and a half, my powering number five and
a half. It was five and a half and forty
five and a half last night. And again we're not
seeing the six six and a half like you might
expect to see against the Giants off of last night's

(37:12):
another debacle. Even though their defense played well and their
offense had chances. You know, it wasn't like they were
completely outclassed by the Chiefs in that game. They were
in the game. They just couldn't do anything got in
the red zone. And it is a Chargers team. Look
Herbert seeing the field, well, five receivers had four more catches,

(37:32):
but the Broncos defensive line beat up on LA's offensive line,
you know, and Beckton left with a concussion. That's a concern.
They lost Najie Harris to a season any injury, that's
a concern. They had twenty nine first down square to
nine for the Chargers minus two and turnovers now gained
by point eight yards per play. They still won and

(37:54):
covered despite the lack of closeness. But think about how
they opened the season three straight wins over their three
division opponents Kansas City and Vegas and of course Denver yesterday.
Now they got to travel east for an early Star game.
The wise guys will not be on the Chargers this week.

(38:15):
It is a dismal, dismal spot. The only question is
are the Giants have a better game? And I'm sure
the Giants have something of a better game than the
when we just saw, But is theyvele going to lose
that locker room?

Speaker 3 (38:25):
He could?

Speaker 2 (38:26):
And you know when Russell Wilson gets to first and
goal with a chance to cover late and then throws
four passes at three passes out of the end zone
and one ill designed quarterback draw doesn't bote a lot
of confidence for the g men moving forward. They have
no public support this week, and again the pros and
Joe's will be on opposite sides for this one.

Speaker 3 (38:45):
You can sense it already even on Monday morning.

Speaker 4 (38:47):
And I don't blame the Joe's one, bet Teddy. Let's
move along. Jaguars forty nine ers up next.

Speaker 1 (38:56):
You talked about the Cardinals earlier in the show, and
I mentioned and this was a funny game to me
because it landed one. Cardinals had a shot to win
it late. San Francisco was able to get the outright
when Jack's looking more improved every single week. Talk about
this matchup here, and why maybe we should be looking

(39:17):
at the favorite.

Speaker 3 (39:21):
I'm gonna tell you why to look at the favorite.
I don't know what the favorite?

Speaker 2 (39:24):
Uh look at line San fran three and forty four
and a half. My powering number is four. The markets
opened three and a half forty five and a half
last night, and that's basically what we're seeing today. We've
seen some over money for the Niners and Jaggs forty
six last forty six and a half the prevailing number.
So I like Jacksonville's offense worked real well yesterday. You know,

(39:44):
four point four yards per play. They went four to
sixteen on third and fourth down tries. They got stuffed
on the crucial fourth down tries and Texans should have won,
but they fumbled it away. Brian Thomas had three more
drops and then he did have a catch and run
of the biggest player of the game late in the fourth.

Speaker 3 (39:58):
You know, this is worth noting.

Speaker 2 (40:02):
Last year, full season, seventeen games, Jacksonville had a ti
grand total of nine takeaways. This year, three games, not
seventeen three. Jacksonville has nine takeaways at least three in
each of the first three games. That's the first time
that's happened to them to start a season. So the
defense making plays. As for the forty nine ers, you know,

(40:24):
Nick Boss hurt, brock Perty's hurt. It certainly wasn't pretty
yesterday against Arizona. Christian McCaffrey making catches, but as a
running back, he's not breaking tackles right now.

Speaker 3 (40:35):
Ricky Pearsall was great yesterday's game.

Speaker 2 (40:37):
But you know they had a one point six yards
for play edge you know or sorry, yeah, five point
seven yards play on offense, four point one yards play
allowed on defense.

Speaker 3 (40:48):
A lot of positives from that win in San Francisco.

Speaker 2 (40:52):
That being said, they were a drop pass away from
losing that game at home to Arizona forty nine ers
not the type of team I'm excited about laying a
price with right now. And Jacksonville even though they really
tried hard to snatch defeat from the jobs of victory yesterday,
Houston did it better than they did.

Speaker 1 (41:10):
This Colts team has been really exciting to watch. I
know Teddy said he was on the Broncos in that game,
so we won't call them a true three and zero team.
They got bailed up by the refs there last week.
Same kind of thing happened though this week with the Rams.
You've got two teams I think neck and neck here,
one jockeying for position in the AFC, one in the NFC.

(41:32):
Both going to be solid in the playoffs. But what
say you about this week four matchup playoffs?

Speaker 3 (41:39):
Yeah on September at Yeah, and.

Speaker 4 (41:41):
Teddy, we got to get it pumped up. We got
to get these teams. These are the types of teams.

Speaker 1 (41:45):
I want to see, these good offensive teams in the playoffs.
I like both of these teams. I think have a shot,
maybe outside shot, to go deep into the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (41:55):
Look head Linine Rams minus five and a half total
forty six and a half. My powering number rams minus three.
The market's open three and a half and forty eight
last night, and we're seeing indie support. We're seeing indie
money again. My numbers three, and I'm willing to go
doodle you for this one. Let's get the bet in
emergency betaler, doubt.

Speaker 3 (42:20):
You like the Colts.

Speaker 2 (42:22):
We grab three and a half. I'm not convinced that
they'll be there. We're gonna see indie support. And he's
been pretty good, all right. They lead the league in
years per play. They ranked second in offensive expected points added.
They punted once so far this season, They've scored on
seventy seven percent of their offensive possessions. That's the highest

(42:43):
mark for any team the first three games off the
past forty five years. You know, they haven't won the
division since twenty fourteen, when Chuck Pacana was their coach
and Andrew Luck with their quarterback. I know the combined
record of the teams that they've beaten is.

Speaker 3 (42:56):
One and eight. But LA, how good are you?

Speaker 2 (43:01):
LA should have won yesterday's game, but Stafford wasn't sharp.
They settled for field goals, and they've got a significant injuries.
It's significant injury issues. On the offensive line, multiple injured
hurt in that ball game, which was at least part
of the reason why Philly was able to block two

(43:21):
fourth quarter field goals and return the second one for
a touchdown with Zeros on the clock in that ball game.
When you have clust your injuries on the offs of line,
Indy's strength is in the trenches. That's concern for LA
this week and potentially moving forward, especially with a QB
like Stafford, who isn't going to be able to scramble
away from pressure.

Speaker 1 (43:43):
All right, here is a Bears team coming up, Teddy
that I hate. Maybe it was finally they played Dallas's
defense that they looked good. Is that what we're missing here?
The Bears are taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. Our
producer JH text me, he goes say something nice about
Caleb Williams, and I said, I have the under if

(44:03):
he could stop throwing touchdown passes, that would be great.
And it worked out well because Dallas looked offensively and
apt kind of break down this one. The Raiders opening
up his favorites here shouldn't surprise anyone.

Speaker 4 (44:15):
But I'm not gonna lie.

Speaker 1 (44:16):
At first glance, I thought, oh boy, the Bears are
gonna get a lot of support.

Speaker 2 (44:20):
Look at line here, Raiders two and a half and
forty seven, My powering number comes. Pick them for this boggain.
The markets open one and forty seven. The forty sevens
are gone, the forty seven and a halfs are mostly gone.
Forty eight the prevailing number. There are still some forty
seven and a half's out there for this total. And
the markets are looking at the Raiders right now as

(44:43):
an over team based on their defense, but then again
giving the Raiders' offensive line issues, remember they're another team
in that sense. The office line basically got destroyed. Yesterday's
Gino got sacked five times. John d got hit in
the backfield. He had seventeen carriers. I got hit in
the backfield the left of those seventeen carries. The defense
basically got destroyed. They faced a backup quarterback and only

(45:04):
four to six and complete passes allowed nine point nine
yards per pass. Them to give up twitter yards on
the ground, give up seven point four yards per play.
The special teams got destroyed. They give up a punt
return touchdown. They didn't do anything right yesterday. You know,
Pete Carroll, I have to do a better job. It's
all three phases, so it's me I have to do
a better job managing our return home field edge for

(45:25):
the Raiders. I'm telling you guys, there will be as
many Bears fans as Raiders fans in that venue at
the Allegiance Stadium this coming weekend, maybe more Bears fans
than Raiders fans. So it is not a you know,
it's a home game that the Chicago has to travel.
The crowd support not so much the Bears Week five
by so last game before the bye, Caleb Williams was
brilliant yesterday. Ten point six stars per pass, THEMP four touchdowns,

(45:47):
no picks, Four different receivers caught passes of thirty plus yards.
They still couldn't run only three yards per carry and
there were plus.

Speaker 3 (45:53):
Four and turnovers.

Speaker 2 (45:55):
And of course this team as fat as happy as
it gets after the windy Caleb Williams quote versus Ben
Johnson's quote. Williams quote, it's awesome the trust and belief
and hard work and just all of it together to
be able to have that hard work, this historic organization
have this moment. It's really important, Ben Johnson. It'll be
fun for tonight and then we'll be back on the
next one. We're behind the eight ball here one and two.

(46:18):
We've got to get back to five hundred. So Johnson
trying to get the team to focused. We'll see if
that actually plays out. But like I said, the crowd
support will be there for Chicago, even here in Las Vegas.

Speaker 1 (46:33):
All right, Ravens played tonight and then Sunday evening, well afternoon,
I guess I could say here on the East Coast
they play at Kansas City. Kind of break down a
little bit more of that Kansas City game versus the
Giants last night, Teddy I mentioned middle fourth quarter. I
was like, I'm going to bed, this is ridiculous, Russell,
and I was not overly impressed with Kansas City. I

(46:54):
haven't been overly impressed with them this entire season. Baltimore
field goal favorite here.

Speaker 2 (47:00):
Yeah, so the look at line Baltimore three and forty eight.
My powering numbers only Baltimore one. But I've been a
little bit The betting markets right now have the Ravens
as the best team in the league by several points,
and I don't have that in my powerings yet, So
I'm a little bit off from the markets. On the Ravens,
and we'll see tonight if that's justified or not. Maybe

(47:21):
I should adjust my numbers to match the market, but
I got to see it to do it. I don't
move my numbers based on air, So my numbers one
last night we were seeing threes in forty eight and
a half and that's basically what we're seeing today. There
are two and a half out there for Baltimore if
they look good tonight. Again, it's a parlay situation. If

(47:43):
you like the Ravens tonight, may want to parlay them
here and you'll get, in theory the best of the number.

Speaker 3 (47:51):
You know.

Speaker 2 (47:51):
As for Kansas City, you know, there's certainly the significant
revenge angle for all the teams in the AFC that
are playing the Chiefs right now, and Kansas City's defense
has made enough plays keep them in games. But make
no mistake, go out, you know right now, this is
a even with a truly elite quarterback, This is not

(48:12):
a truly elite Chiefs offense or in the season, and
the markets certainly think Baltimore's.

Speaker 4 (48:16):
Is all right.

Speaker 1 (48:17):
We got about ten more minutes here before we let
you guys go into watching Last Call with Andy Lang
so we're gonna get into Sunday night football. Here Teddy
green Bay taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay off
that loss to the Browns. Cowboys looked again offensively adept
to that Bears team kind of break down to this one.

(48:38):
I said that I thought Green Bay was looking ahead
to this matchup. They just got to go to Cleveland
squeak out a win, and it looked like that's what
the result was going to be. And then obviously crazy
play Browns get the win. How does that change things?
Looking from a numbers perspective, headed into Dallas.

Speaker 3 (48:57):
So look at line.

Speaker 2 (48:57):
Here was green Bay four and a half and forty
nine and a half my powering number with no CD
for Dallas this seven. We don't know yet what the
status is of CD Lamb. I didn't see it before
I went on here. I'm assuming he's going to be
out this week. So my powering number was seven, and
I made you know, there aren't many teams that I'm
going to make a significant adjustment for one wide receiver Dallas.

(49:19):
You adjust down when CD lambs down the lineup. Feel
often it's not the same markets opened six and forty
eight last night. We're seeing six and a half starting
to pop out there, and this line's gonna move when
ced Lamb's status is announced. Ceedee Lamb is hurt and
not going to play in this game, We're going to
see green Bay money. If he is okay and it's

(49:40):
likely to play this game, I would expect to see
at least some Dallas money. Again, the look head line
here was four and a half green Bay's in that
last game before the bye scenario. All right, Micah Parsons
after the meltdown in the last five minutes, the last
four minutes really of the Packers Browns game yesterday. Quote sometimes,
just like today, you shit the bed.

Speaker 3 (49:59):
That's just the reality of it.

Speaker 2 (50:00):
Happens to the best teams, even the best Super Bowl
champs make mistakes and they pay for it early. You
go back to the history of the champions who've won,
they've played and the games they should have won.

Speaker 3 (50:08):
It's just that competitive.

Speaker 2 (50:10):
So you know, the Packers Jordan love Ill timed first
interceptions since last November, and it wasn't a good pass.
Josh Jacobs sixteen for thirty, there was no running room.
Fourteen penalties, three point eight yards per play, ten penalties
in the fourth quarter of that ballgame. Ten penalties in
the fourth quarter, which is the most in the modern

(50:32):
era for any team in any quarter. They lost two
starting offs of linemen, Zach Tom and Aaron Banks. That's
a concern here. And Dallas is coming off of minus
four turnover game. You know, Matt eber Flus facing his
former team and.

Speaker 3 (50:46):
Wasn't pretty.

Speaker 2 (50:47):
Brian Schottenheimer quote, this can be a humbling business. If
you don't take care of business, you don't play well,
you're not gonna win. We gotta stop giving up big
plays on defense. We gotta stop turning the ball over
on offense, the bad formula. First year, first time head
coach Ceedee Lamb is hurt. He's gett an MRI today.
Cheyvon Diggs and Kenny Clark got banged up. That's a
key piece of the secondary. Keep us of the defense,

(51:08):
and this defense has been awful. Let's go make it.
You know, Russell Wilson threw for four to fifty yards
and three touchdowns against them, all right, Caleb Williams couldn't
do anything against Dallas defense.

Speaker 3 (51:17):
He could.

Speaker 2 (51:20):
Dallas has now given up twelve pass plays of twenty
five yards and more in the last two weeks five
touchdown passes of twenty five yards and more. That's worse
in the NFL. This Cowboys defense is a problem. And again,
if Ceede. Lamb doesn't play, we're going to see Packers' money.
I emergeny betting liverdit. But I don't know yet what

(51:40):
Lamb status is. But I wouldn't argue with anyone that
wants to take Ranny Bay right now.

Speaker 3 (51:44):
At six last six and a half.

Speaker 2 (51:46):
It could easily be seven or higher by kickoff, and
I would expect the Packer they're gonna be focused for
this one, and I don't know that that focus matters
all that much for this mediocre at best Dallas team.

Speaker 1 (51:56):
Almost three thousand of you guys watching between YouTube acts,
kick Twitch, all the streaming channels, So thank you guys
for hanging out with us here on a Monday Saddy.
This game is the battle of the to three of
the AFC East. This is someone's got to win.

Speaker 4 (52:13):
How about that?

Speaker 1 (52:13):
Who is going to win this football game? Or who
should we be betting? Or should we just say no? Thanks
to the early Monday night game.

Speaker 2 (52:21):
So first of all, I want to thank all you
guys for watching live. We really appreciate those likes. If
you like this type of breakdown, hit that like button
that makes all the difference for us a comment below.
You know, Kelly and I both get into the comments
every week. I get in a couple of times. I'll
be in today and then again, I'll come back again
tomorrow or Wednesday, and I try to answer every single
comment or respond to every single comment.

Speaker 3 (52:41):
So I really appreciate those comments. Thank you.

Speaker 2 (52:44):
And of course, if you haven't done so already, what
we have two undred and twenty thousand of you who
have subscribed to the wager Talk YouTube channel get into
alerts every time these videos go live. Join the channel
wager Talk TV on YouTube. When it comes to the
Jets and the Dolphins, look headline here Miami minus two
and a half four set a hook forty four and
a half. Sorry my powering number in Miami minus two.

(53:06):
The markets open two and a half forty four and
a half last night, and that's pretty much what we're
seeing today.

Speaker 3 (53:10):
There are some threes.

Speaker 2 (53:11):
Popping up for the Dolphins, and obviously two teams that
are struggling a fair bit in early season play. Tyrod
Taylor's not good all right, and Tyrod Taylor and then
the Pantheona backup quarterbacks. We know his names, he's been
around so long, but Tydrod Taylor doesn't guy teams to victory.
And that game's twenty three to six. In the fourth quarter,
they had a block field goal return for a touchdown.

(53:31):
Instead of Tampa up nine, it's the Jets up one,
and the d still couldn't hold it even after a
play like that. You know, Aaron Glenn, there's no such
thing as moral victories. We got to work next week.
Look at the things we need to fix. We're gonna
hone in on that. They were out gained by one
point two yards per play, only four point two yards
per play on offense in that ballgame. Sauce Gardner got
hurt in that game. Quincy Williams got hurt in that game.

(53:53):
And this is not a defense that can afford a
whole lot of injuries. As for Miami, you know how
much of it's two was fault two. It takes all
the blame for this, and of course untimely interception cost
him a chance to win.

Speaker 3 (54:05):
He's done that plenty. You know.

Speaker 2 (54:07):
That came with Miami down by a touchdown facing first
and ten on the twenty one and it's a first
down interception. That's tough, but he didn't have the roughing
the punter penalty that changed the game completely in the
fourth quarter. He didn't get sacked on thirty four dropbacks,
only four point three yards per past him. Though no
big plays for Miami, no play of twenty yards running
or passing, they were able to convert in the red zone,

(54:28):
they were able to convert on third downs. They rushed
for a season nine hundred and sixteen yards, but the
defense is given up thirty plus in all three games.
The Dolphins have a lot of opponents to score on
eighteen of twenty three possessions this season, not counting Neil downs.
Those aren't the type of teams I'm excited about laying
a price with Mike McDaniel quote, I'm never proud of
a loss. We came here to win our few stake

(54:49):
moral victories, but it wasn't good enough. So that's where
I'm at. Yeah, I'm not sensing that this line's going up,
this total's going up.

Speaker 3 (54:57):
You know.

Speaker 2 (54:58):
Again, we're seeing a couple of threes popping for Miami,
but I'm not convince they're going to hold it. I'm
not convinced the markets are excited about Layna field goal
with the Dolphins two and a half still the prevailing number.

Speaker 1 (55:09):
All right, Teddy, second leg, eight fifteen Eastern. Here on
Monday night, we've got the Broncos.

Speaker 4 (55:18):
That was an interesting result.

Speaker 1 (55:20):
I know the bookmakers were not very happy that the
Chargers were able to win that football game by three, specifically,
but then the Bengals, we got Jake Browning five interceptions
on the season. I think a lot of people thought
in that Jags game, hey, we're gonna be just fine
without Joe Burrow.

Speaker 4 (55:35):
Not so sure anymore.

Speaker 2 (55:37):
Yeah, Minnesota's defense is pretty good, but you know, Cincinnati
was a no show in that game. Look headline here
Broncos minus five and a half. Total forty five and
a half. My party number Broncos minus six and a half.
The markets opened seven and a half last night. We're
seeing a mix seven slash seven and a half this morning.

(55:58):
Total forty three and a half slash forty four slash
forty four and a half. We're seeing a little bit
of under money and again from the seven and a
half opener we've seen, I'll call it a little bit
of Cincinnati money. I mean, the Bengals said, you know,
worst loss in franchise history. Chase Brown ten carries for
three yards. Quote, put this behind us, will be just fine.

(56:20):
The main thing we got to take away the team is,
you know, we got to play with a chip on
our shoulder like f whatever people say. You know, as
long as we're good in this locker room, will be
just fine. Of course, since he's the worst rushing team
in the NFL and they didn't run the football coming
in yesterday the game, and they didn't run the football
at all.

Speaker 3 (56:38):
In that defeat.

Speaker 2 (56:39):
Thirteen drives, fifty two plays, one hundred and seventy one
total yards, five turnovers, defense didn't force any It was
pretty awful, all right, Zach Taylor, the collective effort talk
about how bad the office of line was. I didn't
see the line have one turnover today, Okay, I saw
a bunch of other guys have five. So clearly this
is on the entire team. Denver did some things right,

(57:00):
you know. They ran for five point six yards per
carry against the Chargers defense. Courtland Sutton one hundred and
eighteen receiving yards, the rest of the team eight catches
for thirty seven yards. Not pretty first downs got they
got out first down by twenty. You know, they had
ten penalties, they were plus two turnovers and lost the
game and didn't cover. You know, they let the leads
slip away here, They let us lead the leads sip

(57:21):
away against Indy. They started owing to last year, they
started one to five and twenty twenty three.

Speaker 3 (57:26):
Sean Payton.

Speaker 2 (57:29):
Not winning many fans right now in Denver as far
as coaches and good coaching jobs this year. Sean Payton
not getting a whole lot of awards from this better
early on, But where's this number gonna go again? We've
seen some of the seven a halfs get bought down
to seven for Cincy. There's concerns about Denver in this one,

(57:49):
and I would not be surprised we see more of
that moving forward to the Bengals. Even with their backup QB,
they'll attract some betting attention. If you liked the Bengals,
no argument taking plus seven and a half.

Speaker 3 (58:00):
Right now, all right?

Speaker 1 (58:01):
If you'd like to partner up with teddywt dot buzz
backslash tc to get on board with him at Teddy
Underscore Covers on social media we're gonna get out of
here because we're up against the clock. Make sure you
guys hang around. Wager Talk today with Andy Lang is
up next. Good luck on your bets this week, and
we'll see you next Monday.

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