NFL Opening Line Report | NFL Week 12 Sharp Plays | Beat the Market Before Everyone Else! - NFL Opening Line Report

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
To the opening line report. Kelly Stewart here with Teddy
Covers on this beautiful Monday morning. We're ready to go.
Teddy for some emergency betting alerts. You have your coffee,
and I have my little siren. When I put this
thing up, that means if you guys want a number,
whether it's a side or total, Teddy said, you better
get on it before that line changes. Have those odds

(00:21):
logic or wager Talk free odd screens open. Follow along
with Teddy and I. We're gonna go through this entire
week's NFL card. But before we do, Teddy, quickly, you
have a video ap right now on the wager Talk
YouTube channel regarding Monday Night football.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
I sure do for the Raiders and Cowboys tonight. Obviously
we talked about it a little bit on the opening
line report last Monday. But if you want my opinion
for tonight's game, just visit the website wagertalk dot com.
Click on free plays or visit my homepage wt dot
buzz backslash tc and scroll down look for the free
plays and you'll see a video for me talking about

(00:57):
the Cowboys and the Raiders here in Las Vegas.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
I already don't even want to watch that game. I'm
already over it. A game that I do want to watch,
and we'll get to you here in a minute is
Thursday Night Football. But first we have to go through
what did we learn last week? I had a great
NFL Sunday. How did you do, Teddy?

Speaker 2 (01:15):
I went one and two, So I'm not thrilled with
the performance. That being said, it wasn't a complete and
abject disaster, but it certainly wasn't a banner day for
the clients. Unfortunately. One thing we have to talk about
when we're talking about recapping what happened in the NFL
this week. I mean, yeah, we saw the Dogs winning
outright Chicago, Carolina, Jacksonville, Denver, all shorter dogs all with

(01:36):
the outright wins. We saw it very clearly that brock
Perty is better than Mac Jones. We certainly got more
of this Sam Darnold don't trust them versus a good
defense narrative. But the biggest takeaway from this past weekend,
we talked about it all the time. Half points matter,
and that's one of the advantage of the Odds logic
live ods screen. That's why I'm pushing it on the show.

(01:56):
Basically every week I talk about how we're going down
through the os Logic Live out screen. You get a
free seven day trial of the os Logic screen right now.
Just go to os logic dot com backslash Teddy and
try it for seven days. But when you see five
games in one weekend where half points matter, it tells
you half points matter. What did the half points matter? Well,
let's see, did you lay twelve and a half with

(02:16):
the Patriots or thirteen or thirteen and a half against
the Jets They won by exactly thirteen. Miami minus two
and a half. Against Washington, they win by exactly three
Green Bay minus seven, minus seven and a half. Against
the Giants, they win by exactly seven Baltimore minus seven
and a half. At Cleveland they went by exactly seven.
The Baltimore Cleveland total opens forty one and a half.
We talked about it last Monday, got bet all the

(02:38):
way down to thirty eight where it lands thirty nine.
You know on game day thirty nine and a half,
thirty nine, thirty eight and a half. Thirty eight's available,
So half points matter, don't buy them, get them for free.
That's why we like talking about the odd Logic Live
odd screens. It tells you where and when to bet,
decides that you're looking, or totals that you're looking.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
To bet Teddy. The main reason why I had a
good weekend is because I let Brett put in my
super contest place for me, because I was Sam's Wi
Fi on my flight for the first time in years.
Couldn't believe it. So my alarm goes off and I'm like, well,
I can't put these in, and luckily he was able
to do so for me, those half points did matter.
The painful one was the good old Commanders, but we'll

(03:19):
talk about them here in a minute. Because luckily we
had some good teasers come through Thursday night. Well, I'm
not sure if this is gonna be a good teaser
spot or not. I don't know what to make of
this Texans teams, but Davis Mills back to back weeks.
Maybe the guy's not so bad after all.

Speaker 2 (03:38):
Now, Davis, But when we come to the NFL backup
quarterback panty on something we talked about on End Zone Live,
not yesterday, but the week before. We spent a little
bit of time talk about Davis S. Mills, and I'm like,
if I have a backup quarterback in the NFL, Davis
Mills is easily in my top five. You know, he's
got who's been a starter. He's a smart guy from
Stanford and is someone who can come in and execute

(03:58):
a game plan. That's actually what he does for Houston
over the last couple of weeks with all of these games,
with every game on the board this week, and of
course it's a week where there's four teams on by Denver,
the LA Charters, Miami, and Washington, so we got fourteen
games to discuss. But with every game we're going to
talk about, I'm going to be a four set to lines.
I give you the opening, the look ahead line from

(04:20):
last week. I use the Westgates super Book as my
primary number, but I compare that with the broader marketplace.
So we'll give you a look ahead line. I'm going
to give you my powering number. We'll talk about where
the line opened last night and where the money's coming
this morning. Now, one thing that does happen around this
time of year, and I'm noticing it pretty clearly right now,
my power ratings and the betting markets, they're pretty close.

(04:43):
Most of the injury moves taking place right now are
more injury or most of the line moves are as
much injury related as any other factor as opposed to
opinion related. So you don't see as many necessarily emergency
betting others at this time of the year. That being said,
no surprise if we see one or two before this
show is through. This one could be one of them.

(05:04):
Look aheadline, there were two and a half and threes
for Buffalo out there, two and a half at the
West Gate. Three was a prevailing number. The total was
all over the map. There was forty threes, forty three
and a half, forty four, forty four and a halfs
the look ahead my powering number after yesterday's games, Buffalo
minus three and a half. The market's open Buffalo minus
three and a half, forty three and a half. And
what have we seen this morning? Lots of bills money

(05:24):
up to four and a half. There are five and
a half's out there as we speak, total sitting forty
three and a half. I'm not convinced we're going to
see more Buffalo money at four and a half. I'm
not gonna call this an emergency betting alert, but I
would not be shocked if we do see more bills money.
I don't though, I don't expect to see take back
on the Texans anytime soon. Even though Houston there were

(05:45):
ering three to start, they're five and two cents. Davis
Mills back to backs weeks. He's put together game winning
drives for a team that was trailing. To me, go
Ryans quote, I'm proud of the way we're finishing. We
weren't finishing games really good to start the season. But
how we're finishing games now and finish with the win,
that's all that matters. I'm proud of our guys for that.
As for Buffalo statement win yesterday against Tampa, they played

(06:08):
really well, certainly on the offensive side of the football,
and they did it despite the fact they were missing
all kinds of different players, including a wide receiving core
with Gabe Davis and Nicole Hartman who weren't on the
team the previous week. But then again, their special teams
were brilliant. Half their drive started on the forty yard
line or better, you know, Josh Allen, you know talking

(06:29):
about yesterday went ten point six yards for pass them
seven point eight yards per play, big plays all game
in the passing game. Despite three turnovers quote Josh Allen's
quote starting off four and oh, we're the best team
in the world, and then we lose two to Rowe
and ot the worst team in the world. We don't
want to ride that. We want to stay here, stay consistent.
Worth noting Buffalo's had some issues on the defense side
of football against the run. They did again yesterday. They're

(06:52):
giving up an NFL high seventeen rushing touchdowns on the season.
They give one hundred and forty five yards before contact
to the Bucks in yesterday's game, So there's certainly concerns
in that regard for the Bills as road favorites on
a short week against the team with a pretty good
defense in Houston.

Speaker 1 (07:11):
Teddy, the reason why I said teasers is because I
had Houston on my list. I also had Pittsburgh on
my list, and I don't know if they are going
to be in that spot anymore either. As I look
at the odds logis Street they think on Caleb Williams
and the Chicago Bears the team that continues to plague me.
I had my lone loss yesterday in my slash contest

(07:33):
was the Vikings.

Speaker 2 (07:34):
Of course, Yeah, Well, the Bears were my last cut
and the charges were my last let's play this game.
So I made a pretty bad decision in that regard,
and pretty bad that means disastrous. It was between a winning
day and a losing day for me. Yesterday is me
and my bad thought process. But it happened. Not going
to sugarcoat it. It is what it is. Look aheadline

(07:55):
Bears minus two and a half at the West Gate.
There were one one and a half, two two and
a halfs out there, total forty six and a half,
forty six forty five and a half all in that range.
Line opened im sorry my powering number has I got
the Bears two point seventy five. That's a two and
a half slash. Three markets opened Chicago three and forty

(08:15):
five last night, and looking at the odth Logic live
out screen right now, that's exactly what we're looking at
this morning, three and forty five. There's a little bit
of variance on the total of forty four and a
halfs out there forty five and a half, So I'd
be more expecting to see over money than under money.
But you're not gonna see over money this time of
year in Chicago without a weather forecast, it is what

(08:35):
it is. As for Pittsburgh yesterday, of course, So let's
talk about the power rating adjustment between Aaron Rodgers and
Race and Mudoff. We have not heard yet this morning
how serious the injury is to Aaron Rodgers is not
his throwing rist, it is his other risk. But there
was a rumor that he had fractured that risk and
that was going to be a problem for him. My
powering differential between Rogers and Rudolph is a half a

(08:56):
point and that's yeah, Rogers a half point better. Okay,
Aaron Rodgers Mason Rudolph half point difference in my numbers.
You know, I mean Pittsburgh won yesterday because of the
two defensive touchdowns. You know, it was you know, which
was changed the nature of that game completely. It was

(09:16):
thirteen to nine. Next thing, you know, Pittsburgh's lightened it up.
But it wasn't the offense that did it. It was the
defense that did it. That's the defense. It has been
much maligned. Note the quote by the way wide receiver
Calvin Austin talking about the quarterback change for the stealers quote,
We're very comfortable with Mason went through him all through
OTA's and everything. He came in intod exactly what we
expected him to do, just dice up the defense and

(09:37):
spread the ball around. So we're gonna have to see
about Rogers' status. I'm curious to see how much, if
it's Rogers versus Rudolf, how much that affects the betting marketplace. Again,
my my, my opinions that it shouldn't affect the betting
marketplace all that much. As for Chicago, it's the same
story with the Bears. It's turnovers and turnover margin, no turnovers,

(10:00):
one hundred and forty rushing yards at defense force toos.
That's how Chicago's winning. And when you're doing that every week,
it's not an anomaly anymore. Now it's a thing, you know,
Kevin Byer, the safety, it's in the same old Bears,
Caleb Williams. The belief that we've grown within the locker
room is what changed. When you have belief, when you
put the trust between each other and the guys and
things like that, these moments don't seem too big, you know.

(10:23):
And there's seven wins. The Bears are plus twenty in turnovers,
they're three to zero in games decided by two points.
A few or they're five and one. When the margin
is five points or less, you know, I mean downsides.
They had six offensive drives. Get inside. The Viking's forty
airline only came away with nineteen points. But when you
have twenty two takeaways and six giveaways and it's November,

(10:45):
you're doing something right. And that may not last forever,
but right now, Chicago's showing real be on signs. This
point spread telling us the market's starting to give the
Bears a little bit of respect.

Speaker 1 (10:58):
Yeah, and speaking of respect, the guests favorite on the
board is taking on the New York Jets this week,
so Jet's getting no respect. The Baltimore Ravens getting all
the love, even though they did not cover yesterday against
the Browns.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
Yeah, look aat line here. Baltimore minus fourteen and a half,
forty four and a half. My powering number, Baltimore minus
fourteen and a half. The markets last night opened minus
fourteen s last nineteen minus fourteen and a half, total
forty of four and a half, and this morning we're
seeing pretty much the fourteen and a half. There are
a couple and still out there. It's mostly fourteens right now.

(11:32):
There's not enough to me at the emergency betting alert.
The Jets plus fourteen and a half to get that hook.
There's a couple out there. I don't know they'll be
there much longer, but it's not something you're gonna be
able to find everywhere. So fourteen and a half, fourteen
and a half, fourteen, you know it's a two touchdown
deal here. The Jets mean, while four and one against
the spread, their last five games, despite being held the
fourteen points or less than three of them, are looking
pretty inept offensively. I mean, Justin Fields was awful on

(11:55):
the oufic side of the football. You know, one hundred
and sixteen passing yards. Justin Fields has five hundred and
five passing yards in his past five starts combined. Now,
one of those games he didn't get pulled at halftime,
but five hundred and five passing yards in five starts
is not very good. They had twice as many rushing
first downs ten as passing first downs five yesterday, and
of course they're top receiver. Garrett Wilson is on age

(12:16):
reserve right now. They brought in at Mitchell Andy Mitchell,
and Mitchell dropped two passes, which is exactly what he
was doing an indie justin Fields quote, you just have
to roll with it and deal with it. You can't
look at your circumstances. Just go out there and play.
It's tough, but at the end of the day, you
can't complain about it. It's the circumstances we're in right now.
The Jets not the most confident team and certainly not
the most talented team on the office side of the

(12:37):
football right now, which is bad news against Baltimore's defense.
You know, Lamar Jackson struggled all day yesterday, two interceptions,
took five sacks, he only had one completion of the
twenty plus yards. He wasn't real good the week before either.
You know, the Ravens have allowed thirty sacks in ten games.
That's six more than they allowed all of last year.
But against Cleveland's run dy that's a stout run defense.

(12:59):
Derick Henry one hundred three yards five point seven yards
per carry, Mark Andrews with a beautiful fake push touchdown,
and the defense for Baltimore still very much good enough.
You know, they're not Villa Gayer out of the game.
They allowed only ten first down three point five yards
per play. They're won by a touchdown even with a
minus two turnover ratio and one touchdown in four red

(13:19):
zone offense in four red zone tries on offense. So
you know, last year Baltimore the best in the league
in the red zone, touchdown seventy four percent of the time.
The last two weeks three touchdowns on nine drives inside
the twenty. That's certainly a problem. John Harbaugh quote, we're
just above water, We're breathing. We're not even out of
the water. Typical AFC North battle. I proud of the
guys for the way they played, to what they did

(13:40):
to find a way to win a game in the
second half the way that they did. So you know,
there are what a game behind Pittsburgh and the AFC North.
The one in five start clearly in the rearview mirror,
and the betting market still very much respecting Baltimore, even though,
like I said, much like last week, this week, my
numbers are right right on, right on there with the Ns,
but the market's been a little ahead of me on Baltimore.

(14:03):
And again the win yesterday by a touchdown. This is
I'm not disappointed that I haven't ridden this Ravens streak.
The market's been all over it. It's not a situation
where they've been all this untapped value on Baltimore.

Speaker 1 (14:17):
All right, almost seven seventeen and sixty of you right
now watching live, either on social media or the wager
Talk YouTube channel. If you guys give us a quick like,
you know, hit that thumbs up, that heart on X
whatever it may be. We always appreciate you guys hanging
out with us here on the opening line, report Teddy,

(14:38):
this is a team that I'm considering for Survivor, but
I have some question marks about Dan Campbell. Last night
he was rather frustrating as somebody who had lines and
the teasers thank you for getting that field goal. That
being said, they are playing the New York Giants this week.

Speaker 2 (14:56):
Look aheadline here Detroit minus eleven and a half forty
eight and a half. My prior number has Alliance minus
twelve and a half. The markets last night opened ten
and a half slash eleven and a half. Total was
forty eight and a half forty nine slast forty nine
and a half. What is it settled that this morning
ten and a half and we've seen a little bit
of over money fifty the prevailing total as we speak

(15:17):
I'm not sensing any urgency with the Lions here at
ten and a half, even though my number is twelve
and a half for Detroit. I mean, the Giants did
a lot of things right yesterday. You know, they had
more total yards, they had more yards per pass, they
had more rushing yards, they had more first downs in
the Packers. That being said, they allowed four or four
red zone touchdowns and were minus two in turnovers. And

(15:38):
it's a run defense that ranks number thirty one at
the NFL's thirty two teams that could very much be
a propagancet de Troy who could not run the football
last night, Jameis Winston as the starter quote, I really
wanted to get a win for these guys. Unfortunately we
finished the way we did. Talk about the coaching change,
but Mike Coska brought great energy. We have that leader
who as a player perspective, obviously Kafka in the NFL

(16:02):
for a number of years, the backup QB. As for
the Lions, I mean, the Lions were competitive last night
in a really tough environment. You talked about the Dan
Campbell decisions of kicking of not kicking field goals and
then going zero for five on fourth down. That was
the worst game of the year. I've seen Jared Doff
play even with it. Detroit five point three yards per play,
Philly three point nine. You know Campbell, who was a

(16:24):
genius when he replaced after the quator John Morton with
the play calling two weeks ago. Last night, he was
an idiot. Detroit off a loss is worth talking about.
Year to date off a loss, they beat the Bears
fifty two to twenty one. They beat the Bucks twenty
four to nine. To beat the Commanders forty four to
twenty two. That's three tries, three wins by fifteen points
or more. Last year off a loss to beat Arizona
by a touchdown, they beat Chicago by seventeen. They are

(16:46):
only two regular season losses. Twenty twenty three to beat
Atlanta by fourteen, Vegas by twelve, New Orleans by five,
Denver by twenty five, Minnesota by ten. Yeah, I went
back last night and looked all these up. In twenty
twenty two, they beat Green Bay by six, Jacksuo by
twenty six, and Chicago by thirty one to close out
the regular season after their one and six start. So yes,
if you're adding it all together, that would be twelve

(17:07):
and zero straight up for the Lions off a loss,
and the majority of those wins coming by double digit margins.

Speaker 1 (17:16):
And there you have it. That's why I'm going to
be using the Detroit Lions this week in Survivor. I
know a lot of people have to save them if
they are in circle for Thanksgiving. I am not one
of those. Sendy the hottest team oh boy, at least
according to my comments on X is the New England
Patriots Drake may Baby taking on the Cincinnati Bengals.

Speaker 2 (17:38):
So I've already won a couple of season win bets
and lost a couple of season win bets before Thanksgiving.
One of the ones I lost is New England under
the total they cast. They won their ninth game yesterday
and did they absolutely deserve to have nine wins right now.
One of the ones I've won have I won Cincinnati.
I think I still need one more loss for the Bengals,

(18:00):
but I expect to win unless since he wins every
game the rest of the year, I expect the cash
with the Bengals under the total. So I had both
these teams under one Precingon opinion was very right. One
precing opinion was very wraw. Look at Lyne here, New
England minus five and a half, minus six, minus six
and a half. We're out there. And by the way,
when I give you these numbers, the first number is

(18:20):
the Westgate number. When I add additional numbers, that means
that the the Broaduct market was a little bit different.
So five and a half, six, six and a half
for New England. Total fifty and a half slash fifty
one my powering number after yesterday's games Patriots minus seven.
The market's open seven forty nine and a half last
night and we're seeing seven forty nine and a half
slash fifty this morning. There is a prominent seven and

(18:44):
a half out there, but it's just it's just juiced
to high heaven. So I don't know that it's going
to last much longer. But seven the prevailing number, fifty
the prevailing total. As for New England, what are they doing?
No turnovers, only two penalties, took only one sec six
and twelve on third downs, one on one on fourth downs.
It's hard to play mistake free football on Thursday night

(19:04):
and the pass just did you know? Eight and oh
straight up? Six and two ats' is ad one and
two start. You know, Robertspulane the linebacker quote, no one
feels outmatched. We're never gonna feel like an underdog. We're
going to continue to play team defense, team offense, team football.
Just let the chips fall where they may. We know,
the real season is still ahead of us New England. Yes,

(19:26):
their schedule has been weak, but they went to Tampa
and beat Tampa. They went to Buffalo and beat Buffalo.
I'm not going to sell the Patriots short anymore just
because their schedule has been relatively weak. That's for Cincinnati.
I mean, the flat O pick six really changed the
game completely. It was thirteen to nine at the time.
Cleveland was already in field goal range. They ran the
bell wall. They ran the ball well all game against

(19:49):
a pretty good defense. Chase Brown nine to nine rushing yards.
Trey Hendrickson is still missing time. He's missed his second
straight game. There's no pass rush there. You know, safety
Gino Stone talking about how yesterday was maybe their last chance.
We knew what was at stake, we knew what we
have in front of us coming up. You know, Patriots Ravens.
Bill's Ravens again. Over the next four weeks. It's not

(20:11):
necessarily going to be a pretty second half of the
season for Cincinnati. The first half the season was very
pretty either, and I'm not particularly impressed with Zach Taylor
these days, really not teddy.

Speaker 1 (20:22):
On my way home from Aruba, I sat next to
two Titans fans and I reassured them that they were
going to at least cover against the Houston Texans, and
they both looked at me, like, are you insane? They
did get the cover against their divisional opponent, so that
was a win, if you will, because that's how teams
start to progress. But now this weekend they're a huge

(20:43):
underdog at home to Seattle. Sam Darnold took a lot
of grief yesterday on social media for his three quarters
of performance, but they did have a shot to beat
the Rams down late.

Speaker 2 (20:55):
Sure, and this is worthy of an emergency betting alert.
So let's get Dan primed and ready for it. When
we talk about it, look under money right now. If
you like the under, bet it sooner rather than later.
Look ahead line here Seattle minus twelve and a half
forty three and a half my powering number at Seahawks
minus eleven and a half. The market's open twelve and

(21:17):
a half thirteen and forty one last night, and we're
seeing pretty much twelve and a half mostly thirteen's out
there right now. The forty ones bet down to forty
and a half could go lower if you like the under.
There are still some forty ones out there forty and
a half taking under money as we speak. So there's
urgency for under betters. And I'll tell you flat out

(21:38):
there's no downgrading Seattle off of that loss. I understand
Sam Donald threw four picks, Seattle went one for four
in the red zone, and the team still covered the
spread and had a chance out of the game when
you field goal attempt. They held the Ramps to two
undred forty nine yards twelve first downs. That defense was phenomenal.
Sam Donald quote, we were still in this despite the
turnovers and all the things that happened. There's a huge
credit to our defense, the way they played all day.

(21:59):
I wish I could have played better for our defense
and just for everyone in the team. And of course
we've seen Sam Donald struggle against this defense now three times,
you know, And yet Mike McDonald, head coach quote, we're
about three yard short for putting ourselves in a great
position to go win given all the things that happened
throughout the game. Again, they did not play their best game.
They're playing an elite team. They're doing around the road.

(22:19):
They've turned the ball over four times and they still
cover the number. That's a positive four Seattle, not a negative.
Linebacker Ernest Jones talking about Sam Donald quote, Sam's been bawling.
If we wanted to find Sam by this game. Sam
had us in every effing game. So for him to
sit there and say that's my fault, no, it's not.
It was plays defensively. We could have made opportunities, We
could have gotten better stops. Donald is our quarterback. We've

(22:42):
got his back. As for Tennessee, I mean it's an
offensive line problem for Tennessee. You know, Callahan found that
out the hard way. You know, cam Ward was their
leading rusher again yesterday. You know, Tony Pollard and Ty Spears,
they're buying fourteen carries for twenty five yards. They lost
five in a row. That Yesterday's lost Clint the fourth
consecutive losing season. You know, nine flags for sixty two yards,

(23:04):
A bunch them on the offsive line. You know, interim
head coach Mike McCoy quote, you can't beat yourself against
a really good football team. That's what happened. The penalties
kill you. It's tough. It's tough enough to play a
great defense like that. When you have the penalties, you
hurt yourself. It's even harder. They got Calvin Ridley back.
You lasted one play and then broke his leg. They
did get defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, an outside linebacker, Arden keyback,

(23:28):
and Tennessee's defense certainly showed signs of being a decent
unit yesterday, even it wasn't good.

Speaker 1 (23:36):
Okay, we're gonna keep this one roll, and we've got
a NFC North matchup here Green Bay at home to Minnesota.
As I already alluded to Teddy Minnesota, we rather frustrating yesterday.
They were gonna cover anyway, so I was glad they lost.

Speaker 2 (23:52):
Sure. Before we talk about this, I want to promote
for just a minute, you know, put a promo code
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(24:32):
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Speaker 1 (24:48):
What can people expect if they if they partner up
with you? Right now, we've got NBA going on, We've
got NHL, We've got college football, college basketball, NFL are
what are your primary focuses right now?

Speaker 2 (24:58):
Three sports? I'm doing a NFL well, I'm doing college football.
I'm doing NBA. After Thanksgiving, that's when we start college hoops.
I don't start college hoops. I can't do four sports
at the same time. I find that I you know,
it's hard enough trying to do three when I try
to do four and then try you know, And it's
a different thought process for me in every sport. So
it's not like, all right, this is my formula, this
is how we do the you know, this is how
we do it. Yeah. So it's uh, but you get

(25:20):
all my NBA, all my NFL, all my college football.
So check out the homepage we do that buzz backslash
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Speaker 1 (25:55):
All right?

Speaker 2 (25:56):
About the Vikings and the Packers right now? Sorry, Look
line green Bay minus five and a half total forty
three my powering number, green Bay minus five. The markets
opened a little bit higher six slash six and a
half last night. We're seeing more six and a half
than six out there this morning. Total sitting at forty two.
There were some forty one and a half last night.

(26:18):
Those forty one and a halfs are now gone. No,
there's no so fur I shouldn't say that it's a
slit line. There's forty one and a half and forty
twos out there. Good news for total betters to buy
half point. You can take under forty two or over
forty one and a half, whichever way you want it.
Right now, you know. JAYJ. McCarthy's obviously the story for
Minnesota sixteen. For thirty two, one hundred and fifty yards,

(26:39):
one touchdown, two picks. He was awful for three quarters
and then made things interesting in the fourth, which is
what he did the first time I guess the Bears.
But he didn't complete his first pass in the second
half until there was three minutes left in the game.
He wasn't sacked, he didn't scramble. The defense kept him
in the game, even without Jonathan Greener, who's his first
game he's missing in the last two seasons. But when

(27:01):
you score rally, dig deep, take a fourth quarter lead,
and then give up a fifty six yard kick return,
the Bears didn't even need a first down to be
in field goal range. The quote after the game from
JJ McCarthy, I just need to do a better job,
make sure the rhythm stays throughout the entire sixty minutes.
There's definitely things we did well today, but how can
we amplify those things? How can we eliminate the mistakes?

(27:22):
McCarthy's under a pretty significant spotlight right now for Minnesota
and not do all that well. As for the Packers now,
oh and six against the spread at minus four or
higher after filling in recovery in the Giants yesterday, that
is certainly a trend to be aware of moving forward.
And oh, they're laying more than four points this week.
That being said, they scored more points yesterday than the

(27:43):
previous two weeks combined. You know, Malik Willis came in
and gave him positive things and lots of drops yesterday.
You know, Romeo Dobbs is dropping, Jona Fitspatrick Musgrave, that
Tavian Wicks. They've missed craft at tight end and then
that offense is route without him, it hasn't been as effective.

(28:04):
Matt Laflour after the game quote, it was so gritty
and tough he was under the rest. I felt quite
a bit. I thought it did a nice job giving
opportunities to guys, opportunities to make plays. Talking about Jordan Love,
Josh Jacob's hurt yesterday, And of course it's a team
that had seventeen interceptions last year. There were top four
in the NFL. Yesterday multiple dropped I INT's I think

(28:24):
it was three of them. And they have four picks
in ten games. Something they've talked about, something they've worked
on in practice, but something they have not been able
to improve upon in any real way in games, at
least not just yet. Of course, JJ McCarthy has the
potential to solve that problem for the Packers, and of
course his first career trip to Lambeau not always easy
to play there in November. Though he is a Michigan guy,

(28:46):
he doesn't experience playing in difficult weather.

Speaker 1 (28:50):
All Right, the sky is falling in Chiefs Kingdom. There
three and a half games behind the Denver Broncos. Yet
there's still a decent favorite here over a team that
I think has it come out of nowhere, but it
has been rather impressive this year. Teddy.

Speaker 2 (29:04):
Sure, And I mean you talk about teams that cast
their season win bets in November, you know the Coults
already over their total. They're eight and two. They're off
a win versus the Jags in overtime against Berlin, and
a bye week. So that's the indie story for this
one look aheadline. Here Kansas City minus four and a
half total fifty and a half my powering number to the
Chiefs minus four. The markets open three and a half
forty nine and a half last night. What are we

(29:27):
seeing now? Yeah, let's do it, grab it right now.
The markets, I'm not gonna say they're crashing on the Chiefs,
but the markets are disrespecting Kansas City in a way
that we haven't seen in quite some time. Again, I'm
not convinced this line goes to three everywhere, but I

(29:50):
don't think it goes to four. So if you want
the dog, take the plus three and a half right now,
it'start fading in Kansas City. I mean, there's nothing fraudulent
about this. Five and five for the Chiefs. You know,
Denver out gaining them by more than a half yard
or play. Yes, big Denver had one hundred and forty
seven penalty yards. I went one to five in the
red zone and Kansas City still couldn't beat them and again.

(30:10):
Last year they go twelve to zhero in one score games,
including the playoffs. This year zero to five in one
score games. I haven't payed the playoffs yet. Patrick Mahomes quote.
It sucks, don't get me wrong. You gotta feel that,
but you gotta be able to kind of use that
energy to push it into the next week and the
rest of the season. All you can focus on is
the next game, get another opportunity to go out there
and prove yourself. We've been losing these close games recently.

(30:31):
We played some good football on Spurts. It's just about
being more consistent, you know. I just keep saying, keep practicing,
getting better and better, and put yourself to go out
there and do it all on game day. More Mahomes,
It's going to be tough to get back to the
division race. The goal is to get in the playoffs
and to try to make a run at it. We've
got to learn from this one as much as possible,
knowing we're gonna get a great opportunity coming into Arrowhead

(30:53):
next week. We're kind of at the point that we
got to find a way to win games. Cass won
the division every year twenty sixteen. Nick Bolton, the linebacker quote,
it's just a one week mindset. Every week's kind of
getting to the point of where it's like a playoff week.
We've got to find a way to one game at
a time. Kansas City, they are what they are. The

(31:15):
record says they're a five hundred team. Betty Markets starting
to say they're a five hundred level team in Indy
taking the early money.

Speaker 1 (31:24):
I would love for nothing more than that team to
cash my three to one to not make the playoffs.
Ticket Teddy, Let's see if you think either one of
these teams is going to make the playoffs, because yesterday
Jacksonville was rather impressive. Arizona man Jacoby Brissette has the
bottom falling out since that Indianapolis game.

Speaker 2 (31:45):
Maybe look edline here was a Jaggs minus one slash
one and a half total forty five and a half.
My powering numbers the Jags minus three. The market's open
two and a half forty seven and a half last night,
and we're still seeing two and a half forty seven
and a half today, which tells me that, you know,
I thought there might be the urgency to get on

(32:06):
the Jags. It probably is. You know I'm not seeing
signs of it. I don't give a crap. Let's emergency
betting alerted anyway. If you like the Jags late two
and a half, now, that's just that's plain and simple.
There's not going to be Arizona's not a team that's
about to get a bunch of betting market support in

(32:28):
the recent way. And it's a second straight week that
their defense gave up forty plus. That's not a good sign.
They're one and seven straight up three and five ats
their last eight. They're the first team since this century
in the NFL to allow two touchdowns in the opening
six minutes of back to back games. Last week, they
were down thirty five nothing in Seattle by mid second quarter.
This week, they opened the game by allowing a ninety

(32:49):
eight yard kick return, seventeen penalties one hundred and thirty
yards minus three turnovers. Defense didn't force any They allowed
four touchdowns and five red zone tries. You know, Jonathan Gannon,
I'm a defensive head coach. It's not acceptable. You can't
win when you give up that many points. It really
doesn't matter how you get there. Got to stand up,
play better and keep points off the board. And the injuries.
You know, Marvin Harrison didn't play yesterday. I mean de Mercado,

(33:12):
who probably is the single guy you can pointed that
that's the guy that ruined our season. He got hurt yesterday.
Garrett Williams got hurt yesterday. Kelvin Beach him got hurt yesterday.
There are problems in Arizona right now. And Jacksonville just
played the best game any of us have seen them
play all year. I mean, one hundred and ninety two
rushing yards allowed, forty two, half of which was Herbert scrambles,
thirty to eight first downs in favorite of Jacksonville, only

(33:34):
one penalty, five touchdowns, and six red zone tries. They
didn't punt, you know, Trevor Lawrence. That's cool when you
give your punch to day off. And this came for Jacksonville.
They were without their top three cornerbacks Hunter, Lewis Newsom.
They were without their top route two receivers Hunter and
Thompson Thomas. They were without their top two tight ends
Strange and Long. Their best Offsive Lineman was out Harrison,

(33:56):
their best safety was out Murray. Now all of those
guys for the Jaggs expect to return within the next
couple of weeks and as they return. As we see
some of these guys get back this week, this line
could easily go to three or hire. No one excited
about betting the Cardinals right now.

Speaker 1 (34:11):
I don't know anybody that's gonna be excited about betting
this game, either the raven or excuse me, the Raiders
do play the Cowboys tonight, and then next Sunday afternoon
they take on the Cleveland Browns.

Speaker 2 (34:24):
Yeah, I mean so we'll talk about you or Sanders
here in just a minute. I know everyone's waiting for that.
Look headline Raiders two slash two and a half total
thirty seven and a half. My powering numbers, Raiders won
the markets last night. There were twos, two and a half, three,
three and a half, thirty seven and a half the
total right now, I'm seeing threes and thirty seven and
a half. Though some books, lots of books haven't posted yet,

(34:45):
but most books have. We don't know who's going to
be the starting quarterback yet for Cleveland, but we're going
to assume that'll be shut or Sanders. And you know why,
why was see the third rigger? Why didn't he get
the opportunity. I mean, we'll give them credit for making
thing interesting on the final drive, but the should roar Sanders.
You look at the box score. He went finished four
of sixteen forty seven yards, no touchdowns, one pick, He

(35:06):
was sacked twice. He had a two point four QBR
and a thirteen point five passer rating. Those are rookie
QBS making his first appearance type of numbers. Those are not,
you know, and he held the ball way too long.
That was his propensity in college. That's it prensity in
the NFL. Oh. By the way, both starting tackles Cam
Robinson and Jack Conklin suffered knee injuries in that ballgame.

(35:28):
And you know, even in games where the defense dominates
yet again where Miles Garrett just blows up the line
of scrimmage didn't matter worth noting Sanders quote, I know
I'm made for it. I don't think there was a
doubt in my mind that final drive we were going
to go down there and score. Things happened and we didn't,
But I was excited because I knew what I was
able to do to be I was going to be

(35:49):
able to do out there. And again they made things
interesting on the final drive, but it was not the
type of performance from Shouldhew Sanders that inspires much confidence
for Las Vegas. You know the money in football against
Dallas tonight. Three of their last five losses have come
by a field goal or less. The other two losses
thirty one and nothing and forty to six road games

(36:10):
against Casey and Indy. I don't know how much the
factor as Cops versus a home game versus Cleveland. I mean,
for as bad as Vegas has been, they've been in
these games, the offense still really struggling though Cleveland, it's
not an easy alexir today.

Speaker 1 (36:25):
I'm trying to find an update on Michael PENNOCKX Junior
for this next one. Atlanta has headed to take on
their divisional rival in New Orleans. Talk to me about
this line, whether he plays or not.

Speaker 2 (36:39):
Yeah, and so we've seen the money's pouring in on
New Orleans right now. They're telling us that they don't
think Penis are going to play and Cousins is done.
Lookhead line here three and a half with a lookhead
forty and a half slash forty one and a half
was the total my party number. This is a Penix line,
not a Cousin's line, Atlanta minus two and a half.

Speaker 1 (37:00):
He's a mugket over sorry Teddy. Adam Schefter just tweeted it, Uh,
he will not be He has got a season injury,
season ending injury, knee injury.

Speaker 2 (37:09):
Ooh, that's that's impactful. Markets opened two slash two and
a half last night, total of forty And we're not
gonna you know, Atlanta has now lost five in a row.
And Kirk Cousins is you know the office had four
first downs on five drives with Cousins of the game.

(37:30):
One of those first downs came on a pass the
difference call. Two of them came the first two plays
running two minute drills. They were were trying to get
the game tying field goal after blowing the blowing the league.
Atlanta's three and seven. They've lost five straight. It can
you know? And uh, you know they're missing they both
starting cornerback or the Affred and Mike cus at the
cornerback defensive and Leonard Floyd didn't play defensive lion Stack Harrison,

(37:53):
so they've got defensive injuries galore. They got lit up
by Bryce Young fourty pass a ten years for past
ten you know, Saints are office seventeen, seven win at
Carolina and a bye week, they're two and eight. I
don't necessarily love the concept of backing a team a
bad team off a win and I run. I have
a bad team off a loss on a buy, and
a bad team off a win and a buy. But

(38:14):
this line is the fact that it's not. There are
a bunch of books that haven't even posted yet, and
now that the injury news has come out where it's
going to be cousins from Cousins to Panics has to
be at least two points. That's my mentally in my head,
that's what I'm thinking's two points. But Atlanta's power rating
is crashing and burning right now. You know, the five

(38:35):
straight losses, the defensive injuries. You know again, coaches that
you rip. I don't like Zach what Dak Taylor's been doing.
I don't really like what Raheem Morris has been doing
in Atlanta either. So that's a concern moving forward. But
can the Saints get the favorites? You know? Hard game?

Speaker 1 (38:53):
Yeah? I agree, the comment section agrees with you. Too
hard to back either team here. Shout out to our
wader talking insider in the comments section wt Dot Buzz
Backslash Insider to join its two dollars in ninety nine
cents a month gets you premium access to things like
that on it bet on its Mega Show early and
that always includes the Stockwatch with our good friend there

(39:15):
Teddy Covers, as well as Marco's Deli, some TNA from
Ralph Michaels. And it does also get you some early
access to the steam Room, which is premium content only.
Teddy Monday, excuse me Sunday afternoon. This one should have
been such a good game. I don't know what to
make of the Dallas Cowboys. I guess we will see
tonight in Las Vegas. Philadelphia is a road favorite here

(39:38):
in the division.

Speaker 2 (39:39):
Yeah, the first time these two Kings met was a
lot of fun until the lightning delay and then they didn't
score another point afterwards. Yes, I had the over in
that game. Yes, I'm still bitter about it. Philly minus
four minus four and a half minus five minus five
and a half was a look head line total fifty
slash fifty one, So anything between four and five and
a half my powering number five for the Eagles. The

(40:01):
markets open four and a half fifty one and a half. Obviously,
Dallas will be on national TV tonight. If they look good,
this line could be a notch too lower. If they
look bad, this line could be a notch too higher.
You know, Jalen hurts under two hundred yards passing again
six times this season. You know, aj Brown had eleven
targets at least, so he's not going to complain as
much this week. But boy, that defense, I mean, they

(40:23):
got all the stop when Detroit went on five on
four downs, they stuffed the run all night. You remember,
this is the defense that you know. They picked up
jingaln Phillips at the trade deadline and they were good
enough to win a Super Bowl last year. They were
goingnough to dominate a super Bowl last year. Vic Fangio
had him dominating last night. Phillies defense, even against good offenses,
has proven they're capable of shutting them down.

Speaker 1 (40:48):
Okay, Sunday Night football, Tampa Bay. Boy, have they been
on a down world spiral since that bye week? Headed
to LA to take on the Rams.

Speaker 2 (40:58):
Yeah, look aheadline here La minus six total forty eight
and a half. My powering number comes five and a half.
The market's open six and a half and forty nine
and we're seeing six and a half forty nine and
a half as we speak right now. And let's do
one final emergency betting alert here if you like the
over bet this sooner other than later Tampa. Tampa is

(41:23):
an over team right now, and the markets have caught
up to that. You know, I said it last week.
I'll repeat it. Twenty twenty three, they had a four
game losing streak and still won the division. Twenty twenty four,
they had a four game losing streak and still won
the division. Right now, they've lost two in a row
and their dogs here against the LA So it's the
team with a propensity for losing streaks and a propensity
for bouncing back from those losing streaks, and the Baker

(41:45):
Mayfield Slash Todd Bowls era defense is falling apart for Tampa.
I mean, they were awful in yesterday's game. They give
up four fifty plus yard touchdowns against the Pats the
previous week, and then yesterday in the game where nine
lee changes every time the Baker Mayfield would do something
and the offenseuld march down the field, the defense forced
three turnovers and didn't cover and a game was nine

(42:07):
league changes. The dog can't cover, it tells you how
bad their defense played. Those at ten point eight yards
per pass attempt seven point eight yards per play. Todd
Bowles after the game, quote, weren't a good place mentally.
Our fight is outstanding. Our execution needs to be cleaned up.
Worth noting. For as bad as the defense was, the
special teams were worse. The kickoff covers got gashed again
and again and again. There was a difference in the ballgame,

(42:30):
certainly the difference in the points spread. As to the Rams.
You know, they got four interceptions of Sam Darnold, Seattle
won one to four in the end zone, and Seattle
still cover and had a game winning field goal attempt.
Like the Colts lost the Rams. Rams got out played
but still won the game. Sam McVay quote, We're never
gonna apologize for being able to find ways to win
Stafford season low one hundred and thirty yards passing. You know,

(42:52):
we found a way to win without playing perfect football
against a really good team. Aren't even played outstanding. They
deserve to be partying like crazy. Rams haven't trailed in
a game since Week six, whatever that's worth. When it
comes to indgame, it might be worth noting.

Speaker 1 (43:12):
All right, that is worth noting, Teddy. Also, it's worth
noting right now you have a special going on over
at wager talk dot com. Ol R ten gets you
ten dollars off any of your daily packages. Do you
have anything up for today at wagertalk dot com. I
know you have a free play video up for Monday
Night football on your homepage. Do you have any NBA

(43:33):
or early college football for us?

Speaker 2 (43:35):
Yes, I have two NBA plays up and I'm I'm
gonna post them together. I didn't have a chance to
do it before I came on, but I'm gonna put
up an NBA two pack for tonight. So it'll be
twenty nine bucks for the two. Take ten bucks off,
get the two for nineteen bucks, or use it any
day this week. Again, it's valid till Friday. Appreciate the support, guys,
and if you want to get on board that OLR ten,
I'll get you ten dollars off again. I encourage you

(43:58):
don't buy plays by packages. That ninety nine dollars ten
day all access is optimal in my mind. But if
you want to try it, try it, Hey, go for it.
We got a promo code for you by the play.

Speaker 1 (44:07):
It's okay, all right, Monday Night football, the Carolina Panthers,
fresh off that electric win over the Atlanta Falcons, boil boy,
Does Purty look like an upgrade now that he's fully healthy?

Speaker 2 (44:22):
A party? So for like three years after Tom maybe
four years after Tom Brady won the Super Bowl, every
was like, yeah, but he was a six round draft choice.
It's like, party's getting that still, you know where It's like, no,
it doesn't matter what kind of a draft choice he was.
You know, party's a Pro Bowl or a Super Bowl quarterback.
And Mac Jones is not looking headline here. There were
five and a halfs and six for San Francisco total

(44:43):
forty five and a half my powery number san Fran
minus seven markets opened six and a half slast seven
last night. We're seeing split line right now. There are
six and a half and seven's out there. So whichever
side you like. If you like Carolina, you could take
a plus seven right now. If you like San Fran
you can take a plus minus six and a half
right now. Advantage better when we're talking about that, not

(45:04):
a book maker. And again forty eight forty seven and
a half total. Wise, that hasn't really moved since last night.
That's the best I've ever seen Bryce Young play yesterday ever.
You know, at least maybe at the NFL level. He
had some good games at Alabama, but you know, four
and forty eight passing yards, ten yards were passing them,
no interceptions, he took five sacks. There was no running
Gig Donald in the nineteen carries for forty five yards.

(45:25):
I did not think Carolina was capable of moving the
ball like that without the running game spurring the offense.
You know, he got hurt early, he missed a snap
or two and then retaped his angle and came back
in Bryce Young quote, it's just resilience. We talk about it.
Whatever it was, it's on to the next play. You know,
there's CAROLINEA is not a team on particularly bullish on.

(45:49):
I think there's a lot of weaknesses for the Panthers.
But on the same time, the forty nine ers defense
is not to be trusted laying points. Their offense is.
You know, they had fifty two offensive plays yesterday, and
those fixt two offensive plays, they had twenty four first
downs and forty one points. Christian McCaffrey quote, it was
vintage brock Perty and that's a huge compliment. He was poised,

(46:10):
made some great plays, some huge third down throws, kept
us in the game with Smart the whole way. That
being said, let's not forget the quote from George Kittle
last week. You know, he said that forty nine Ers
office would quote need to score a lot of points
for this team to remain in postseason attention. Casting over
with San Fran yesterday, that was fairly easy. The defense

(46:30):
got cashed twenty four first downs four or eighty eight
yards six point nine yards per play against Arizona, and
Arizona couldn't run the football. So certainly, for me, how
am I thinking about San Fran perspective, I'm thinking about
San Fran right now as a one way team. I'm
getting involved in a forty nine Ers game. I'm probably
looking at the over.

Speaker 1 (46:48):
Ooh, okay, maybe a little by on the forty nine
Ers here. I think my eighteen to one Super Bowl
ticket's probably gonna get thrown in the trash.

Speaker 2 (46:56):
No, no, I'm not buying the forty nine Ers. I'm
buying the forty nine Ers. Oh, I'm buying the offense.
This defense is not going to get stops against you know,
against better teams, the better offense that they face. So
I like San Fran in shootouts.

Speaker 1 (47:10):
All right, Monday night football. Right around the corner here,
Teddy's got a free play up on his homepage wt
Dot Buzz, Backslash TC almost thirty two hundred of you
guys watching live. Shout out to all of you, Teddy.
Any final words before we get out of here.

Speaker 2 (47:28):
Thank you, guys. I really I'm overwhelmed with the support.
I'm overwhelming with the comments. Really appreciate those comments. Every week,
both Kelly and I get in there and try to
answer as many as we can. So appreciate those comments,
the likes, the follows. Thank you for being a part
of the wager Talk family. And we'll do it again
next week.

Speaker 1 (47:44):
He'll just like it all right, Yes, absolutely, same time,
same place next Monday morning. Hang around here, Andy Lang
and wager Talk Today is up next

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