Mike Battaglia @Kentucky Derby sets the Morning line odds prior to 2023 Kentucky Derby

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Episode Transcript

(00:00):
In in a week in Louisville,Kentucky for Churchill downs the running of the
Kentucky Derby. Now we're going tothe Hamilton's hotline. We're going to Kentucky.
Of course, Hamilton's has two locationshere in the Auburn to serve you
on Magnolia and Ogletree. We're goinginto Kentucky. And I forgot exactly is
that? I forgot where Mike Battagliais. But we're gonna bring in Mike

(00:22):
Battaglia and he is the man.He's retired, but he was an analyst,
race caller. He actually sets themorning line for the Kentucky Derby.
And good morning, my friend,Mike Battaglia. Welcome to on the Mark.
How are you doing, Thanks guys, Good morning to you. Good
morning. Yeah, you are officiallyretired. I need to make sure I

(00:42):
get that in the book, right, Mike, Yeah, all I do.
All right, So we got peoplethat have no say what is the
morning line? So what sum itup? For those that don't know?
Mike, Well, I just setthat. I think detail what we you
have to do. JA get inthe head of the better because the betters
are the ones that's determined the finalodds. You just want to give them

(01:06):
a good basic starting point and youyou try to figure out what odds the
horse is going to close. Thatit's not it's not an exact science.
A lot of things go into it, but you know, you'd like to
keep it close. People like toknow what what their horse is going to
be. If they go to therace track and see a horse that's at
twenty to one, they think they'regetting twenty to one, and they get

(01:30):
and they go there and the horseslike four to one, they get a
little upset, you know, Soyou've got to get some kind of knows
what they're doing to give them thatstart. All right, how do you
go? You got the Kentucky Derbytwenty horses. Actually you got more to
look at because you got something alsoeligible was like rich Strike a year ago.
We had red while ago a fewmonths ago. But tell us how
you look at that? What goesinto you putting the odds on twenty horses

(01:53):
in one race? Yeah? Well, you know it's different because most of
the ya know, the limits twelveduring the you know, regular racing season,
so you don't have to deal withtwenty. But the Derby's just a
special thing that you know, youdon't You don't go about at any difference
to set the line. It justmeans that there are more horses in there,

(02:16):
so your your line has to reallybalance out. It has to fall
in there about a one hundred andtwenty five hundred and twenty six points,
and like every every odds worth point, like three to one is worth twenty
five points, and you have toadd it all up. So you just
have more horses and it gets thisa little tougher to do, but it's
no different than making the line onany other race. Okay, how long

(02:38):
does it take you to to makethese odds? And will you wait till
the post positions of drawn? Youjust about does that? That has to
factor you know what, it doesfactor a little bit less now because they've
got a twenty horse starting engage reallyimproved. Even the one hole is much

(03:00):
improved. Although if a horse drawsthe one hole, I automatically make them
bigger odds because you know, it'sjust just just tough to win from that
inside the outside post. People saytwenty is terrible, Well, it just
depends on the running style of ahorse. When you've got twenty horses.
You can't find us. You can'tjust say one horses better than you say,

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oh, I want right in themiddle, so you want number ten.
Say well, if you are numberten and number eleven comes out and
breaks to the left, the numbernine comes out and breaks to the right,
they make a fame which out ofnumber ten. So you know,
you can have a good spot ora bad spot. Depends on what the
other horses do around you a lot. And if you're in the one hole,

(03:44):
you got nineteen then maybe coming downon your hard right, yeah,
yeah you could, you could.That's not still not a good spot,
but they have made that a lotbetter. Yeah. I think it used
to be the start you could ifyou were in the starting get in the
one hole and you look straight ahead. You're a jockey, you could see
the rail right in front of you. Now face, now you've got the

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face. Yeah. They added whatthey built a new starting gate, right,
Mike, twenty horses, Yeah theygot Mike, Buddy Christian here they
back when you were the race callerat Turfway. Uh. Two quick questions.

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One, how was it the firsttime you called the race that was
named in your father's honor? Yeah, that was that was special to me.
Uh. You know, my daddied in eighty one, nineteen eighty
one. Wow, that was onlyeight years after the after the Spiral started,

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and so he didn't really get tosee all the great things that have
happened with this race since then.And right after he died, of course,
they named the race to John toTagley Memorial. And now all these
years later, we not only havea horse that ran and dad's race that
run and runs in the Derby,he won it. Rich Strike ran in
my dad's race, so he ranfourth and my dad's race third in the

(05:10):
Jeff Ruby and then he goes onto win the Derby. That's one of
the most unbelievable stories ever, especiallygetting into it and a guy like Eric
Creed, who I've known for fortyyears when the Derby, he's just a
good old guy. You just youit's just a That's a Cinderella story if
there ever was, And what agreat class. Yeah we had him on

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yeah Eric good. Yeah. QuestionI had is did you call the race
where the deer slammed into the leadhorse? Oh? Yeah, I call
that one. Yeah, that wasa deer came that the one that jumped
on. Yeah. Yeah, therewere a couple of deer that were behind
the starting gate, and when theybroke from the long race in front of

(05:59):
the bell and all that noise orsomething, the deer were spooked and tried
to get off the track. Ofby that time, the horses had gotten
around to we're on the backside,and a deer slammed into the lead horse.
You were calling the race, Mike, Yeah, Actually the deer weren't
on the track when when it's whenit started, they weren't. They weren't

(06:21):
on there, because if that wasthe case, they would have been removed.
But there's woods behind the track,bears a place called Marydale. It
used to be, it's not anymore. But the deer were in the woods
there and they's something in the woodsscooped him and they jumped over the rail
and onto the track, and oneof the horses hit and another jockey went

(06:43):
off. Yeah, it was bad, I'm sure it was. Unfortunately none
of them were hurt. No,none of them were seriously hurt. All
right, So let's go back.Mike Batagny with us. He's live in
Kentucky. He sets the morning linefor the Kentucky Derby. He's now retired,
he still does the Derby post positionsare drawn Wednesday, is that right,
Mike? No, tomorrow, tonight, Monday? I don't Yeah,

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yeah, this is it always?Or is it the week before? Is
it always? This time? They'rebringing it, moving it back. It
was moved back last year. Thisis uh, we're doing it today at
two o'clock. All right, now, why would they move it back?
Oaks and the Derby today and allthe other twenty four races? So I've
got a lot of work to do? All right? What time does that?

(07:26):
I'm sorry I talked over you goahead? Fuck, okay o'clock two
to three A draw? There yougo, and you can and you can
watch it, I guess on horseRacing TV. Would that be right?
Or yeah? You can Strange ChurchillChurch Yeah, Churchhill's got on their website.
Yeah. So all right, andlet me ask you this, how
much once you so you're already havingyour mind the odds, So you're no

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matter where did you say the postposition? Does it change it some or
it does not? It just dependson the horse ends. The one hole
will change it no matter what,right, And I haven't think that yet
I've just I'm going to go throughit and you know, look for these
lakes works. But you know,bat In do the whole thing. Uh,

(08:13):
it's tough to do it this farin advance, It really is,
because the racism until Saturday. Alot's going to happen in this last week
going into the Derby. Yeah,that makes it even tougher to try to
do it on Monday. Yeah,and you're gonna have some unfortunately, and
I hope not. You may havesome stretches. We even had one that
got euthanises over the weekend. Verysad, hopeful. That was bad.

(08:35):
Yeah, I hate that, Mike, but Tagley with us. He's in
Kentucky. He'll be at Churchill Downs. He'll be there running for the road,
be there for the roses on Saturday. You would, if you would,
the morning line favorite before te Mike. Oh yeah, he's got to
be the favorite. Uh. Youknow, he's just done everything. Pletchers
asked. This is not a realslashy horse, you know, but he

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gets out here on the truck.He doesn't trained as well as some of
the others, you know, butwhen he gets to half hour on the
race track, he's a bear.I mean, he just he's just done
everything right for Todd Fletcher, whoknows how to win the Derby, and
he's he's been going, you know, really well that last race. It

(09:20):
looks like he kind of regressed alittle bit in that last race in the
Florida Derby, but he brought fromthe eleventh post and that track at Gulf
Stream is you just don't win fromthe outside. Keith miling at eight that
track, I'm a lot. Andhe still got up and won. And
the way he did it was soimpressive that he's got to be the face.

(09:43):
Well you took the word. Iwatched that race over and over.
I still don't know how he didit. So I know he actually got
passed by made in the turn.The horse came from dead last, asked
him, looked like he was doneand went back by. He points to
the outside and he comes on anot only beat him, he beat him,
beat him by. Yeah. Yeah, And how much futher is the

(10:03):
Derby than that race? There yougo, he'd won ten weeks when it
was over the way he was going, Kenny, I'm being funny, but
yeah, he would have won goingaway, all right. Tapp at Trice,
what do you think about him.That's another pleacher horse. I know
he's this horse he's won. Hewon the Bluegrass by a neck, but

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this is another one that really Ididn't think he was gonna win the Bluegrass.
He didn't have a great trip,horrible, horrible slow star and in
Ampa Bay Derby, Uh, hehe just keep He really impressed me the
way he finished up in that race. Yeah, he is by happened,
and he is bred to definitely beable to get that distance of the So

(10:50):
you got to look at that andit's pleaser. So he's a he's a
solid condemn He's won four out offive. He's done. He's done everything
right since his maiden he got beatinghis maiden race, and uh, since
then, boom boom boom, he'sjust been nothing. But when he's got
Louis sayas too. Why he's uh, he's always tough at Church. I

(11:13):
think he won three or four racesSaturday on Opening he did, he did,
He had a great day. Yeah, he was the only thing I
concerned about with him. Kenny,can he pass all those horses? Well,
you know, you do what yougotta do. It's the same as
that's what these guys. These jockeysare facing something they've never looked. They
don't run a horse field, right, you know. So they're they're they're

(11:35):
they're doing something different. The horsesthey they're they're doing something different. Got
all those nineteen other horses, they'regoing out there, going in eighth of
them out further than they some ofthese horses quarter. So everything did the
Derby is just totally different than anythingthat they've ever done. There you go,
Mike, but tagle the season.The Derby become a rider's race or

(11:58):
jockey's race. Always was always I'llsay so too. Oh yeah, I
mean you got you get it's amile and a quarter. You got to
know your horse. You got toknow when to move, when not to
move. You can't get fought upin an early frenzy, and you know
it takes a cool head. Okay, let me ask you this, Mike.
The Japanese horse dermos Atoga is howyou say it? Says tokay,

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I can't say his name? Andthen is it count sir dermostaki? All
right? All right? What you'repretty dog on? Good horse? Now?
Really watched I watched the UAE Derbyand he went right to the front
yep and he just annihilated him,never looked back. Japan is just they're

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on a taril, these Japan Arethey one like six races on U to
buy that day? Yes, they'rethey're they're tough. Now I haven't this
horse hasn't shown much in Churchill.I haven't heard a lot of people saying
he looks great or looks bad.I don't know. He's still a big
question mark to me. You know, none of those horses from the UA

(13:05):
Derby I've ever hit the board inthe Derby. But okay, I think
this one, this one might bedifferent. This one might be the one.
Um, if I had to say, i'd agree with you. What
about the one that was in aninvite? Is it how you say his
name? Is it country? Oris how you say his name? Or
uh, he's he's he's gonna bea long shot. He he comes out

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of the same race as Dermot Togaki, but he got feat ten lengths in
that I know? Is he howwhen it said explain how he's in?
This is when you say, Ithink I don't. I don't know.
He was an invite, that's forsure, But what does that mean?
Though they just said, hey,come join us, you're gonna race.
I mean, how do you getan invite? I think there's a maybe

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a race that in Japan that theydedicate that too. If you win that,
I'm not sure you know what theydo have that. So that's the
one he won, yes, yeah, maybe that's the one he won.
Okay, So its a win onyour end, Yeah, it was a
win in your end. Okay.All right, so you don't give you
give the first Japanese horse maybe alittle shot, yeah, oh yeah,

(14:11):
definitely, but this one no,not to me, not but he was
ten lengths behind. Okay, allright, might I ask you one more
practical move? Well, Tim Jaquinand our buddy, Yeah, go ahead,
and Bassuez riding he's a good rider. Um, he didn't come in.
I think he got there yesterday.So having him on the track.

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He had his last work at SantaAnita. They said it was good.
I didn't like the way that thesehorses were coming at him and catching him
at the end of a mile andan ape last time. Now another Japanese
for it fran second and that rightye, and bass Japanese got in.
I think he would be tough also, but that was a Mandarin hero and

(14:56):
h he just got deep a horsenamed Skinner who's in the race. There's
a long shot. He's only wonone race. He got beat a half
length, and they were both kindof closing on practical moves. So I
questioned them on a quarter with him. He's only raced in California too,
if I'm not mistaken, right outat sant Anita. Yeah, well he's

(15:16):
raced at del Mar Well. Imean yeah, I mean out there.
Yeah. Does that matter? Doesit? Does it matter coast to coast?
Does that play much in it?Yeah? Not bafforted. That's proof
you could come from California and win. I wouldn't hold that. Again,
that's a great call. That's agreat call. Bob won't even be there.

(15:37):
He's not allowed to be there,is he? Uh maybe not.
He won't be there. Yeah,you're right, Bob won't be there.
Yeah, you're right. Yeah.Yeah. I was gonna say, give
me a give us one, giveus one. I kind of like pathic
trait, Jiff, Mike, youscared me, man, you scared me,

(15:58):
marks My, He's going to beone. I mean, I just
I really like the way he wonthe blue Grass. I like that the
way he finished up for a mileand an eighths bit. Tap it,
he's moving forward. Uh, youknow, he got way better. He
should big improvement from his Tampa Baywhen you know he didn't beat touch.

(16:21):
He's running all of a sudden.That that was a big, big move
forward. I think if he movesforward another notch, he's gonna be tough
to beat. Uh if it becausebecause that that was a big move.
A lot of people say he mightbounce off of that one. But I
think that, knowing Fletcher that Ithink this horse will move up again.

(16:41):
You know what I do too.Any long shots you're gonna throw at us,
Yeah, definitely a long shot I'mgonna throw at you. In competence
game. This horse has been trainingreally, really well. I watched his
work from home yesterday the day beforemaybe who he worked half and he worked

(17:03):
in fifty nine flat or yeah,fifty nine flat. Uh, five eight
and another half a half of fiveeight and fifty nine flat and he galloped
out. It's really strong and elevenand uh and then I forget the mile
time, but it was really good. He looked great on the race track.
He's two, He's won two races. At Churchill, And I like

(17:27):
that because so he likes the racetrack at Churchill. So he's kind of
back home. He's coming off ofraces of bare grounds. And he won
the Rebel and ran a good racethat day. And I don't know,
I think I think he's got ashot as a as a long shot.
All right, now, who's right? I see where Keith? Keith is

(17:47):
his trainer. Who's who's riding him? Is his brother James Grant? No,
James Graham's riding Okay Grahamora. Icouldn't find that in here. Okay,
Yeah, yeah, Yeah, he'sgood. Yeah. Yeah. If
you had to have if I'm justgonna throw this out there, you had
a horse and you could pick youryour jockey, who would you pick?
J I'm always I'm always partial withJohnny Z. He's my favorite. Yeah,

(18:12):
as the players going right now,Javier I love Siez is good right
now. I read has really beenon up. He has hair, and
he's a nice young right, He'sreally good. And his brothers yep.
Good. So I'd hate to beput on the spot to try to pick
one rider. Yeah, I read. If when it keeps into that category,

(18:34):
to me, I'll take any ofthem. That's a good call.
I read has out done. Iread Ortiz Junior is of late. You're
right, he's been rolling certainly atAqueduct. Yeah, he's he's he's been
very very he's a good writer.Now. And Siez is going to stay
at Churchill for the whole meet.Okay, so you can watch him the

(18:56):
whole meet at Churchill's gonna be himand Gasolen even mentioned I was gonna ask
you who telegraph we do? Whatyou thought? He's been. He's been
right up with him there. Soyou know, there's a there's a lot
of good riders right now. Allright, tell me this, I've kind
of uh Brown, Chad Brown,give me his horse? I forgot which
one is it? How many?I forgot which one? Uh uh?

(19:17):
He took Chad took his horse out. That's what I just thought. Yeah,
okay, so he won't have onein there. No interesting? All
right? Anything else you want tobring up, Mike before we go?
That's about it, guys, allright, Well we can we there you
go. Well, we see youon TV anywhere this weekend? Nope,
yep, you even going to therace. Oh yeah, okay, TV,

(19:41):
all right, Mike You're awful nice. We appreciate you calling on the
mark here in Alabama. I'm afriend, all right, Mike, thanks
us. Glad to do it,Yes, sir,