Political Prediction Markets See Flurry of Activity Amid Shifting Dynamics

Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus have all seen significant action in the last 48 hours, with several markets experiencing sharp movements driven by breaking news and shifting public sentiment. On Polymarket, the highest volume continues to come from political forecasting, particularly the presidential election contracts. The market asking who will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election saw major action after the first televised general election debate was officially scheduled. President Joe Biden dropped to 36 cents while Donald Trump climbed to 49, the widest gap between the two since early March. This shift seems to have followed a wave of polling data showing tightening races in key swing states and unusually low turnout expectations among young voters, which could favor Trump.

Meanwhile, PredictIt showed more subtle but still noteworthy moves surrounding vice presidential possibilities. The contract for whether Trump will pick Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate rose from 12 cents to 18 in a span of 18 hours after Axios reported that Trump has become increasingly fond of the Ohio senator’s media defense of him. Doug Burgum, the North Dakota Governor, saw a sharp decline from 14 to 8 cents, suggesting the field may be narrowing faster than analysts expected. Overall, traders seem convinced that Trump’s pick will come from a short list of just two or three names despite months of speculation.

Looking over at Metaculus, which generally leans more toward long-term and science-driven forecasts, one of the most interesting shifts came from the technology sector. The probability that Apple will release a new product featuring generative AI by the end of 2024 jumped from 38 percent to 54. This followed news that Apple is in advanced talks with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT features into an upcoming iOS release. The question had been mostly static for several weeks, so this jump suggests renewed attention to the company’s moves in AI, where it has lagged behind Microsoft and Google.

But the most striking movement across all platforms happened around the Polymarket contract gauging the likelihood that the Supreme Court will rule on Donald Trump’s presidential immunity claim before July. The contract surged from 41 to 72 cents after the court announced it would release multiple opinions this week, triggering a frenzied buying spree. This indicates growing confidence that a decision is imminent and could have massive implications for Trump’s legal strategy heading into the election season.

One emerging pattern that deserves attention is the increasing overlap between political and tech markets. In the past week, markets tied to regulation of artificial intelligence, surveillance, and digital privacy have all risen in volume. On PredictIt, a new contract asking whether Congress will pass any AI-related legislation before the election opened strong, drawing in thousands of shares within hours. Metaculus users are also updating forecasts on timelines for general artificial intelligence, suddenly more optimistic after a flurry of new announcements from Anthropic and Google DeepMind.

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