July 20, 2025 • 3 mins
Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus have all seen significant action in the last 48 hours, with several markets experiencing sharp movements driven by breaking news and shifting public sentiment. On Polymarket, the highest volume continues to come from political forecasting, particularly the presidential election contracts. The market asking who will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election saw major action after the first televised general election debate was officially scheduled. President Joe Biden dropped to 36 cents while Donald Trump climbed to 49, the widest gap between the two since early March. This shift seems to have followed a wave of polling data showing tightening races in key swing states and unusually low turnout expectations among young voters, which could favor Trump.
Meanwhile, PredictIt showed more subtle but still noteworthy moves surrounding vice presidential possibilities. The contract for whether Trump will pick Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate rose from 12 cents to 18 in a span of 18 hours after Axios reported that Trump has become increasingly fond of the Ohio senator’s media defense of him. Doug Burgum, the North Dakota Governor, saw a sharp decline from 14 to 8 cents, suggesting the field may be narrowing faster than analysts expected. Overall, traders seem convinced that Trump’s pick will come from a short list of just two or three names despite months of speculation.
Looking over at Metaculus, which generally leans more toward long-term and science-driven forecasts, one of the most interesting shifts came from the technology sector. The probability that Apple will release a new product featuring generative AI by the end of 2024 jumped from 38 percent to 54. This followed news that Apple is in advanced talks with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT features into an upcoming iOS release. The question had been mostly static for several weeks, so this jump suggests renewed attention to the company’s moves in AI, where it has lagged behind Microsoft and Google.
But the most striking movement across all platforms happened around the Polymarket contract gauging the likelihood that the Supreme Court will rule on Donald Trump’s presidential immunity claim before July. The contract surged from 41 to 72 cents after the court announced it would release multiple opinions this week, triggering a frenzied buying spree. This indicates growing confidence that a decision is imminent and could have massive implications for Trump’s legal strategy heading into the election season.
One emerging pattern that deserves attention is the increasing overlap between political and tech markets. In the past week, markets tied to regulation of artificial intelligence, surveillance, and digital privacy have all risen in volume. On PredictIt, a new contract asking whether Congress will pass any AI-related legislation before the election opened strong, drawing in thousands of shares within hours. Metaculus users are also updating forecasts on timelines for general artificial intelligence, suddenly more optimistic after a flurry of new announcements from Anthropic and Google DeepMind.
Thanks for tuning in, and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production. For more check out quiet please dot ai.
Meanwhile, PredictIt showed more subtle but still noteworthy moves surrounding vice presidential possibilities. The contract for whether Trump will pick Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate rose from 12 cents to 18 in a span of 18 hours after Axios reported that Trump has become increasingly fond of the Ohio senator’s media defense of him. Doug Burgum, the North Dakota Governor, saw a sharp decline from 14 to 8 cents, suggesting the field may be narrowing faster than analysts expected. Overall, traders seem convinced that Trump’s pick will come from a short list of just two or three names despite months of speculation.
Looking over at Metaculus, which generally leans more toward long-term and science-driven forecasts, one of the most interesting shifts came from the technology sector. The probability that Apple will release a new product featuring generative AI by the end of 2024 jumped from 38 percent to 54. This followed news that Apple is in advanced talks with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT features into an upcoming iOS release. The question had been mostly static for several weeks, so this jump suggests renewed attention to the company’s moves in AI, where it has lagged behind Microsoft and Google.
But the most striking movement across all platforms happened around the Polymarket contract gauging the likelihood that the Supreme Court will rule on Donald Trump’s presidential immunity claim before July. The contract surged from 41 to 72 cents after the court announced it would release multiple opinions this week, triggering a frenzied buying spree. This indicates growing confidence that a decision is imminent and could have massive implications for Trump’s legal strategy heading into the election season.
One emerging pattern that deserves attention is the increasing overlap between political and tech markets. In the past week, markets tied to regulation of artificial intelligence, surveillance, and digital privacy have all risen in volume. On PredictIt, a new contract asking whether Congress will pass any AI-related legislation before the election opened strong, drawing in thousands of shares within hours. Metaculus users are also updating forecasts on timelines for general artificial intelligence, suddenly more optimistic after a flurry of new announcements from Anthropic and Google DeepMind.
Thanks for tuning in, and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production. For more check out quiet please dot ai.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Polymarket, predict It, and metaculous have all seen significant action
in the last forty eight hours, with several markets experiencing
sharp movements driven by breaking news and shifting public sentiment.
On polymarket, the highest volume continues to come from political forecasting,
particularly the presidential election contracts. The market asking who will
(00:22):
win the twenty twenty four US presidential election saw major
action after the first televised general election debate was officially scheduled.
President Joe Biden dropped to thirty six cents, while Donald
Trump climbed to forty nine, the widest gap between the
two since early March. This shift seems to have followed
a wave of polling data showing tightening races in key
(00:44):
swing states and unusually low turnout expectations among young voters,
which could favor Trump. Meanwhile, predict it showed more subtle
but still noteworthy moves surrounding vice presidential possibilities. The contract
for whether Trump will pick Senator j D Vance as
his running mate rose from twelve cents to eighteen in
(01:05):
a span of eighteen hours after Axios reported that Trump
has become increasingly fond of the Ohio senator's media defense
of him. Doug Bergham, the North Dakota Governor, saw a
sharp decline from fourteen to eight cents, suggesting the field
may be narrowing faster than analysts expected. Overall, traders seem
convinced that Trump's pick will come from a short list
(01:28):
of just two or three names, despite months of speculation.
Looking over at Metaculus, which generally leans more toward long
term and science driven forecasts, one of the most interesting
shifts came from the technology sector. The probability that Apple
will release a new product featuring generative AI by the
end of twenty twenty four jumped from thirty eight percent
(01:51):
to fifty four. This followed news that Apple is in
advanced talks with open Ai to integrate chat GPT features
into an upcoming Eye iOS release. The question had been
mostly static for several weeks, so this jump suggests renewed
attention to the company's moves in AI, where it has
lagged behind Microsoft and Google. But the most striking movement
(02:13):
across all platforms happened around the polymarket contract, gauging the
likelihood that the Supreme Court will rule on Donald Trump's
presidential immunity claim before July. The contract surged from forty
one to seventy two cents after the Court announced it
would release multiple opinions this week, triggering a frenzied buying spree.
(02:34):
This indicates growing confidence that a decision is imminent and
could have massive implications for Trump's legal strategy heading into
the election season. One emerging pattern that deserves attention is
the increasing overlap between political and tech markets. In the
past week, markets tied to regulation of artificial intelligence, surveillance,
(02:55):
and digital privacy have all risen in volume. Unpredicted. A
new contract asking whether Congress will pass any AI related
legislation before the election open strong, drawing in thousands of
shares within hours. Metaculous users are also updating forecasts on
timelines for general artificial intelligence, suddenly more optimistic after a
(03:18):
flurry of new announcements from Anthropic and Google Deep Mind.
Thanks for tuning in and be sure to subscribe so
you never miss an update. This has been a quiet
please production. For more check out Quiet Please dot ai
Polymarket, predict It, and metaculous have all seen significant action
in the last forty eight hours, with several markets experiencing
sharp movements driven by breaking news and shifting public sentiment.
On polymarket, the highest volume continues to come from political forecasting,
particularly the presidential election contracts. The market asking who will
(00:22):
win the twenty twenty four US presidential election saw major
action after the first televised general election debate was officially scheduled.
President Joe Biden dropped to thirty six cents, while Donald
Trump climbed to forty nine, the widest gap between the
two since early March. This shift seems to have followed
a wave of polling data showing tightening races in key
(00:44):
swing states and unusually low turnout expectations among young voters,
which could favor Trump. Meanwhile, predict it showed more subtle
but still noteworthy moves surrounding vice presidential possibilities. The contract
for whether Trump will pick Senator j D Vance as
his running mate rose from twelve cents to eighteen in
(01:05):
a span of eighteen hours after Axios reported that Trump
has become increasingly fond of the Ohio senator's media defense
of him. Doug Bergham, the North Dakota Governor, saw a
sharp decline from fourteen to eight cents, suggesting the field
may be narrowing faster than analysts expected. Overall, traders seem
convinced that Trump's pick will come from a short list
(01:28):
of just two or three names, despite months of speculation.
Looking over at Metaculus, which generally leans more toward long
term and science driven forecasts, one of the most interesting
shifts came from the technology sector. The probability that Apple
will release a new product featuring generative AI by the
end of twenty twenty four jumped from thirty eight percent
(01:51):
to fifty four. This followed news that Apple is in
advanced talks with open Ai to integrate chat GPT features
into an upcoming Eye iOS release. The question had been
mostly static for several weeks, so this jump suggests renewed
attention to the company's moves in AI, where it has
lagged behind Microsoft and Google. But the most striking movement
(02:13):
across all platforms happened around the polymarket contract, gauging the
likelihood that the Supreme Court will rule on Donald Trump's
presidential immunity claim before July. The contract surged from forty
one to seventy two cents after the Court announced it
would release multiple opinions this week, triggering a frenzied buying spree.
(02:34):
This indicates growing confidence that a decision is imminent and
could have massive implications for Trump's legal strategy heading into
the election season. One emerging pattern that deserves attention is
the increasing overlap between political and tech markets. In the
past week, markets tied to regulation of artificial intelligence, surveillance,
(02:55):
and digital privacy have all risen in volume. Unpredicted. A
new contract asking whether Congress will pass any AI related
legislation before the election open strong, drawing in thousands of
shares within hours. Metaculous users are also updating forecasts on
timelines for general artificial intelligence, suddenly more optimistic after a
(03:18):
flurry of new announcements from Anthropic and Google Deep Mind.
Thanks for tuning in and be sure to subscribe so
you never miss an update. This has been a quiet
please production. For more check out Quiet Please dot ai
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