July 6, 2025 • 3 mins
The prediction markets have been buzzing this week, with a flurry of activity around global elections, tech breakthroughs, and unexpected geopolitical shifts. Let’s dive into the latest trends driving the sharpest market moves across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus.
On Polymarket, the highest volume market remains the 2024 US presidential election, where the question of whether Donald Trump will win has surged in activity over the past 48 hours. The "Trump to win 2024" contract is now trading around 52 cents, up from 48 cents just two days ago. This four-point jump comes amid news of a slight polling bump for Trump in key swing states, and after a fundraising rally that brought in over 50 million dollars in a single weekend. On the other side, the “Joe Biden to win” market is tilting downward, falling from 47 cents to 45. The narrowing spread between the two candidates reflects the tight-lipped caution many forecasters are applying right now, given economic uncertainty and upcoming debate schedules.
PredictIt is seeing unusual movement in the "Republican VP nominee" market. Tim Scott saw a sudden surge from eight to 21 cents, driven by rumors that he was being vetted more seriously than previously expected. Nikki Haley, once the frontrunner, dipped slightly from 29 to 25 cents. The spike for Scott seems particularly surprising given how quiet his public appearances have been lately. Pundits suggest the campaign may be testing his name recognition among Black voters and evangelicals, two key blocs for Trump. This jump from low single digits to the twenties in less than 48 hours is raising eyebrows and recalibrating expectations within the market.
Over on Metaculus, the more academically driven crowd is fixated on AI timelines. The probability that an AI system will be capable of passing a Turing-style verbal reasoning exam by the end of 2025 has moved up from 41 percent to 48 percent. This change is largely in response to the publication of a new benchmark test by researchers at Google DeepMind, which suggests models like Gemini could be within range of this milestone within the next year. This is a relatively significant shift for a Metaculus forecast, where moves tend to be more gradual due to community deliberation and input weighting.
A broader trend emerging among all three platforms is the resurgence of interest in crypto-native prediction tools. As volume declines on PredictIt slightly due to regulatory pressure and Metaculus remains focused on long-term forecasting, traders seem increasingly drawn to the immediacy and liquidity of Polymarket’s USDC-based markets. We’re also seeing more niche questions getting traction. For example, markets asking whether Apple will release a foldable iPhone in 2025 or if Elon Musk’s xAI will outperform OpenAI by year’s end are gaining unexpected attention. These bets may seem speculative, but they’re attracting serious volume, hinting at a growing appetite for tech-oriented wagers from younger traders who are less interested in traditional political outcomes.
Thanks for tuning in and make sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
On Polymarket, the highest volume market remains the 2024 US presidential election, where the question of whether Donald Trump will win has surged in activity over the past 48 hours. The "Trump to win 2024" contract is now trading around 52 cents, up from 48 cents just two days ago. This four-point jump comes amid news of a slight polling bump for Trump in key swing states, and after a fundraising rally that brought in over 50 million dollars in a single weekend. On the other side, the “Joe Biden to win” market is tilting downward, falling from 47 cents to 45. The narrowing spread between the two candidates reflects the tight-lipped caution many forecasters are applying right now, given economic uncertainty and upcoming debate schedules.
PredictIt is seeing unusual movement in the "Republican VP nominee" market. Tim Scott saw a sudden surge from eight to 21 cents, driven by rumors that he was being vetted more seriously than previously expected. Nikki Haley, once the frontrunner, dipped slightly from 29 to 25 cents. The spike for Scott seems particularly surprising given how quiet his public appearances have been lately. Pundits suggest the campaign may be testing his name recognition among Black voters and evangelicals, two key blocs for Trump. This jump from low single digits to the twenties in less than 48 hours is raising eyebrows and recalibrating expectations within the market.
Over on Metaculus, the more academically driven crowd is fixated on AI timelines. The probability that an AI system will be capable of passing a Turing-style verbal reasoning exam by the end of 2025 has moved up from 41 percent to 48 percent. This change is largely in response to the publication of a new benchmark test by researchers at Google DeepMind, which suggests models like Gemini could be within range of this milestone within the next year. This is a relatively significant shift for a Metaculus forecast, where moves tend to be more gradual due to community deliberation and input weighting.
A broader trend emerging among all three platforms is the resurgence of interest in crypto-native prediction tools. As volume declines on PredictIt slightly due to regulatory pressure and Metaculus remains focused on long-term forecasting, traders seem increasingly drawn to the immediacy and liquidity of Polymarket’s USDC-based markets. We’re also seeing more niche questions getting traction. For example, markets asking whether Apple will release a foldable iPhone in 2025 or if Elon Musk’s xAI will outperform OpenAI by year’s end are gaining unexpected attention. These bets may seem speculative, but they’re attracting serious volume, hinting at a growing appetite for tech-oriented wagers from younger traders who are less interested in traditional political outcomes.
Thanks for tuning in and make sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The prediction markets have been buzzing this week with a
flurry of activity around global elections, tech breakthroughs, and unexpected
geopolitical shifts. Let's dive into the latest trends driving the
sharpest market moves across platforms like polymarket, predict It, and mediculous.
On polymarket, the highest volume market remains the twenty twenty
(00:21):
four US presidential election, where the question of whether Donald
Trump will win has surged in activity over the past
forty eight hours. The Trump to win twenty twenty four
contract is now trading around fifty two cents, up from
forty eight cents just two days ago. This four point
jump comes amid news of a slight polling bump for
(00:42):
Trump in key swing states and after a fundraising rally
that brought in over fifty million dollars in a single weekend.
On the other side, the Joe Biden to win market
is tilting downward, falling from forty seven cents to forty five.
The narrowing spread between the two candidates reflects the tight
lipped caution many forecasters are applying right now, given economic
(01:05):
uncertainty and upcoming debate schedules. Predicted is seeing unusual movement.
In the Republican VP nominee market, Tim Scott saw a
sudden surge from eight to twenty one cents, driven by
rumors that he was being vetted more seriously than previously expected.
Nicky Hayley, once the front runner, dipped slightly from twenty
nine to twenty five cents. The spike for Scott seems
(01:29):
particularly surprising given how quiet his public appearances have been lately.
Pundit suggests the campaign may be testing his name recognition
among black voters and evangelicals, two key blocks for Trump.
This jump from low single digits to the twenties in
less than forty eight hours is raising eyebrows and recalibrating
(01:49):
expectations within the market. Over on Metaculous, the more academically
driven crowd is fixated on AI timelines. The probability that
an AI system will be capable of passing a Turing
style verbal reasoning exam by the end of twenty twenty
five has moved up from forty one percent to forty
eight percent. This change is largely in response to the
(02:09):
publication of a new benchmark test by researchers at Google
deep Mind, which suggests models like Gemini could be within
range of this milestone within the next year. This is
a relatively significant shift for a Metaculous forecast, where moves
tend to be more gradual due to community deliberation and
input weighting. A broader trend emerging among all three platforms
(02:33):
is the resurgence of interest in cryptonative prediction tools. As
volume declines on predicted slightly due to regulatory pressure and
Metaculus remains focused on long term forecasting, traders seem increasingly
drawn to the immediacy and liquidity of Polymarket's USDC based markets.
We're also seeing more niche questions getting traction. For example,
(02:55):
markets asking whether Apple will release a foldable iPhone in
twenty twenty five or if Elon Musk's Xai will outperform
OpenAI by year's end are gaining unexpected attention. These bets
may seem speculative, but they're attracting serious volume, hinting at
a growing appetite for tech oriented wagers from younger traders
(03:16):
who are less interested in traditional political outcomes. Thanks for
tuning in and make sure to subscribe so you never
miss an update. This has been a quiet please production.
For more check out Quiet Please dot Ai
The prediction markets have been buzzing this week with a
flurry of activity around global elections, tech breakthroughs, and unexpected
geopolitical shifts. Let's dive into the latest trends driving the
sharpest market moves across platforms like polymarket, predict It, and mediculous.
On polymarket, the highest volume market remains the twenty twenty
(00:21):
four US presidential election, where the question of whether Donald
Trump will win has surged in activity over the past
forty eight hours. The Trump to win twenty twenty four
contract is now trading around fifty two cents, up from
forty eight cents just two days ago. This four point
jump comes amid news of a slight polling bump for
(00:42):
Trump in key swing states and after a fundraising rally
that brought in over fifty million dollars in a single weekend.
On the other side, the Joe Biden to win market
is tilting downward, falling from forty seven cents to forty five.
The narrowing spread between the two candidates reflects the tight
lipped caution many forecasters are applying right now, given economic
(01:05):
uncertainty and upcoming debate schedules. Predicted is seeing unusual movement.
In the Republican VP nominee market, Tim Scott saw a
sudden surge from eight to twenty one cents, driven by
rumors that he was being vetted more seriously than previously expected.
Nicky Hayley, once the front runner, dipped slightly from twenty
nine to twenty five cents. The spike for Scott seems
(01:29):
particularly surprising given how quiet his public appearances have been lately.
Pundit suggests the campaign may be testing his name recognition
among black voters and evangelicals, two key blocks for Trump.
This jump from low single digits to the twenties in
less than forty eight hours is raising eyebrows and recalibrating
(01:49):
expectations within the market. Over on Metaculous, the more academically
driven crowd is fixated on AI timelines. The probability that
an AI system will be capable of passing a Turing
style verbal reasoning exam by the end of twenty twenty
five has moved up from forty one percent to forty
eight percent. This change is largely in response to the
(02:09):
publication of a new benchmark test by researchers at Google
deep Mind, which suggests models like Gemini could be within
range of this milestone within the next year. This is
a relatively significant shift for a Metaculous forecast, where moves
tend to be more gradual due to community deliberation and
input weighting. A broader trend emerging among all three platforms
(02:33):
is the resurgence of interest in cryptonative prediction tools. As
volume declines on predicted slightly due to regulatory pressure and
Metaculus remains focused on long term forecasting, traders seem increasingly
drawn to the immediacy and liquidity of Polymarket's USDC based markets.
We're also seeing more niche questions getting traction. For example,
(02:55):
markets asking whether Apple will release a foldable iPhone in
twenty twenty five or if Elon Musk's Xai will outperform
OpenAI by year's end are gaining unexpected attention. These bets
may seem speculative, but they're attracting serious volume, hinting at
a growing appetite for tech oriented wagers from younger traders
(03:16):
who are less interested in traditional political outcomes. Thanks for
tuning in and make sure to subscribe so you never
miss an update. This has been a quiet please production.
For more check out Quiet Please dot Ai
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