August 7, 2025 • 3 mins
The biggest headlines in prediction markets right now are all about political probability swings and a major tech-related surprise that caught many traders off guard. On Polymarket, which continues to dominate in daily trading volume, the top market remains the question of who will win the 2024 United States presidential election. As of this morning, Donald Trump is trading at 58 cents, while Joe Biden holds at 36 cents. Notably, Biden has dropped 6 points in the last 48 hours, fueled in part by increasing concerns around third-party entrants and new polling out of Michigan and Arizona that shows Trump widening his lead among independents. On PredictIt, which still operates under a university exemption while transitioning to new ownership, the GOP nomination market remains red hot. Trump is now holding 83 cents to be the nominee, while Ron DeSantis has fallen below 2 cents for the first time. Despite staying in the race, there is almost no remaining trader confidence that he can overcome Trump’s lead.
Over on Metaculus, the tone is more academic but no less fascinating. One of the most-watched questions now is whether a formal ceasefire will be reached in Gaza before September. Probabilities on that market fell sharply from 42 percent to just 28 percent after Hamas rejected the latest terms brokered by Egypt and Qatar. Metaculus also features another standout this week: the probability that GPT-5 will be released before November 1. That jumped from 35 percent to 51 percent after multiple job postings at OpenAI mentioned GPT-5 explicitly, which was previously under wraps. Users on platform forums speculated this move may have been intentional, potentially to signal upcoming demos or partnerships.
The most surprising shift in the past 48 hours came from a newer Polymarket listing asking whether Apple would announce any form of partnership with OpenAI during June’s Worldwide Developers Conference. That market started the week at just 12 cents and has exploded to 47 cents by this morning. The surge followed a report from Bloomberg indicating that Apple has been deep in talks with OpenAI, specifically around integrating ChatGPT into iOS 18. That level of detail, combined with Apple’s silence on the matter, has sparked a flurry of trades and made it one of the fastest-moving markets of the month.
One emerging trend that has grown clearer over the past two weeks is the increasing overlap between tech sector rumors and market reaction times. Where it used to take days for platform odds to shift based on corporate developments, now we are seeing major jumps within just a few hours of a tweet or leak. This acceleration reflects both rising interest from new users and a more agile information ecosystem feeding into prediction platforms in real time. It suggests a growing fusion between traditional analysis and crowdsourced forecasting, especially in fast-moving sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
Thanks for tuning in and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
Over on Metaculus, the tone is more academic but no less fascinating. One of the most-watched questions now is whether a formal ceasefire will be reached in Gaza before September. Probabilities on that market fell sharply from 42 percent to just 28 percent after Hamas rejected the latest terms brokered by Egypt and Qatar. Metaculus also features another standout this week: the probability that GPT-5 will be released before November 1. That jumped from 35 percent to 51 percent after multiple job postings at OpenAI mentioned GPT-5 explicitly, which was previously under wraps. Users on platform forums speculated this move may have been intentional, potentially to signal upcoming demos or partnerships.
The most surprising shift in the past 48 hours came from a newer Polymarket listing asking whether Apple would announce any form of partnership with OpenAI during June’s Worldwide Developers Conference. That market started the week at just 12 cents and has exploded to 47 cents by this morning. The surge followed a report from Bloomberg indicating that Apple has been deep in talks with OpenAI, specifically around integrating ChatGPT into iOS 18. That level of detail, combined with Apple’s silence on the matter, has sparked a flurry of trades and made it one of the fastest-moving markets of the month.
One emerging trend that has grown clearer over the past two weeks is the increasing overlap between tech sector rumors and market reaction times. Where it used to take days for platform odds to shift based on corporate developments, now we are seeing major jumps within just a few hours of a tweet or leak. This acceleration reflects both rising interest from new users and a more agile information ecosystem feeding into prediction platforms in real time. It suggests a growing fusion between traditional analysis and crowdsourced forecasting, especially in fast-moving sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
Thanks for tuning in and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The biggest headlines in prediction markets right now are all
about political probability swings and a major tech related surprise
that caught many traders off guard. On poly market, which
continues to dominate in daily trading volume, The top market
remains the question of who will win the twenty twenty
four United States presidential election. As of this morning, Donald
(00:22):
Trump is trading at fifty eight cents, while Joe Biden
holds it thirty six cents. Notably, Biden has dropped six
points in the last forty eight hours, fueled in part
by increasing concerns around third party entrants and new polling
out of Michigan and Arizona that shows Trump widening his
lead among independents. On predicted, which still operates under a
(00:45):
university exemption while transitioning to new ownership, the GOP nomination
market remains red hot. Trump is now holding eighty three
cents to be the nominee, while Ron DeSantis has fallen
below two cents for the first time. Despite staying in
the race, there is almost no remaining trader confidence that
he can overcome Trump's lead. Over On metaculus, the tone
(01:07):
is more academic, but no less fascinating One of the
most watched questions now is whether a formal ceasefire will
be reached in Gaza before September. Probabilities on that market
fell sharply from forty two percent to just twenty eight
percent after Hamas rejected the latest terms brokered by Egypt
and Katar. Metaculus also features another standout this week, the
(01:30):
probability that GPT five will be released before November one
that jumped from thirty five percent to fifty one percent
after multiple job postings at OpenAI mentioned GPT five explicitly,
which was previously under wraps. Users on platform forums speculated
this move may have been intentional, potentially to signal upcoming
(01:50):
demos or partnerships. The most surprising shift in the past
forty eight hours came from a newer polymarket listing asking
whether Apple would announce any form of partnership with open
Ai during June's Worldwide Developers Conference. That market started the
week at just twelve cents and has exploded to forty
(02:11):
seven cents by this morning. The surge followed a report
from Bloomberg indicating that Apple has been deep in talks
with open Ai, specifically around integrating chat GPT into iOS eighteen.
That level of detail, combined with Apple's silence on the matter,
has sparked a flurry of trades and made it one
of the fastest moving markets of the month. One emerging
(02:33):
trend that has grown clearer over the past two weeks
is the increasing overlap between tech sector rumors and market
reaction times. Where it used to take days for platform
odds to shift based on corporate developments, now we are
seeing major jumps within just a few hours of a
tweet or leak. This acceleration reflects both rising interest from
(02:54):
new users and a more agile information ecosystem feeding into
prediction platforms in real time. It suggests a growing fusion
between traditional analysis and crowdsourced forecasting, especially in fast moving
sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Thanks for tuning in
and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update.
(03:16):
This has been a quiet please production For more check
out Quiet Please dot ai
The biggest headlines in prediction markets right now are all
about political probability swings and a major tech related surprise
that caught many traders off guard. On poly market, which
continues to dominate in daily trading volume, The top market
remains the question of who will win the twenty twenty
four United States presidential election. As of this morning, Donald
(00:22):
Trump is trading at fifty eight cents, while Joe Biden
holds it thirty six cents. Notably, Biden has dropped six
points in the last forty eight hours, fueled in part
by increasing concerns around third party entrants and new polling
out of Michigan and Arizona that shows Trump widening his
lead among independents. On predicted, which still operates under a
(00:45):
university exemption while transitioning to new ownership, the GOP nomination
market remains red hot. Trump is now holding eighty three
cents to be the nominee, while Ron DeSantis has fallen
below two cents for the first time. Despite staying in
the race, there is almost no remaining trader confidence that
he can overcome Trump's lead. Over On metaculus, the tone
(01:07):
is more academic, but no less fascinating One of the
most watched questions now is whether a formal ceasefire will
be reached in Gaza before September. Probabilities on that market
fell sharply from forty two percent to just twenty eight
percent after Hamas rejected the latest terms brokered by Egypt
and Katar. Metaculus also features another standout this week, the
(01:30):
probability that GPT five will be released before November one
that jumped from thirty five percent to fifty one percent
after multiple job postings at OpenAI mentioned GPT five explicitly,
which was previously under wraps. Users on platform forums speculated
this move may have been intentional, potentially to signal upcoming
(01:50):
demos or partnerships. The most surprising shift in the past
forty eight hours came from a newer polymarket listing asking
whether Apple would announce any form of partnership with open
Ai during June's Worldwide Developers Conference. That market started the
week at just twelve cents and has exploded to forty
(02:11):
seven cents by this morning. The surge followed a report
from Bloomberg indicating that Apple has been deep in talks
with open Ai, specifically around integrating chat GPT into iOS eighteen.
That level of detail, combined with Apple's silence on the matter,
has sparked a flurry of trades and made it one
of the fastest moving markets of the month. One emerging
(02:33):
trend that has grown clearer over the past two weeks
is the increasing overlap between tech sector rumors and market
reaction times. Where it used to take days for platform
odds to shift based on corporate developments, now we are
seeing major jumps within just a few hours of a
tweet or leak. This acceleration reflects both rising interest from
(02:54):
new users and a more agile information ecosystem feeding into
prediction platforms in real time. It suggests a growing fusion
between traditional analysis and crowdsourced forecasting, especially in fast moving
sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Thanks for tuning in
and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update.
(03:16):
This has been a quiet please production For more check
out Quiet Please dot ai
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