July 13, 2025 • 3 mins
The last forty-eight hours have brought some unexpected twists across the top prediction markets, signaling shifting public sentiment and perhaps early clues about what's coming next in global politics, tech, and science. On Polymarket, the top market by volume has once again been the one asking whether Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. After hovering around 58 cents most of the past week, his contract price surged to 62 cents late yesterday, marking a four-point spike in less than 12 hours. This movement followed the news that an appeals court ruled largely in his favor regarding trial scheduling, giving his campaign a perception of momentum and reducing legal uncertainty in the eyes of many bettors.
On PredictIt, one of the sharpest moves came in the Democratic nomination market, where Kamala Harris saw a sudden uptick. Her contract jumped from 14 cents to 19 cents after an interview with a prominent political strategist went viral, suggesting that key donors are quietly positioning for a post-Biden scenario. While Biden remains the frontrunner at 72 cents, the flurry of buying into Harris is generating speculation that insiders don’t see the nomination as completely locked.
Meanwhile, over on Metaculus, which deals in probabilistic forecasts rather than monetary wagers, the odds that artificial general intelligence will be achieved before the year 2030 ticked up to 28 percent, up from 25 percent just a week ago. This may seem like a small change, but in a slow-moving, expert-driven platform like Metaculus, it marks a meaningful shift. This bump appears to have followed recent statements from leading AI labs forecasting rapid breakthroughs, along with news that several major academic benchmarks in reasoning and translation were surpassed this month.
Among the most surprising changes over the past two days was the Polymarket contract on whether Apple will release a generative artificial intelligence product by the end of this year. Odds had been languishing at 38 percent, but shot up to 51 percent after Bloomberg reported that Apple has staff dedicated to building tools akin to ChatGPT. While no official product has been announced, this market swing suggests bullishness that Apple could reveal something concrete as early as its upcoming developer conference.
One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing intersection between political forecasting and artificial intelligence narratives. Several mixed-topic markets, such as whether an AI-related scandal will impact the 2024 U.S. election, have started getting traction on both Polymarket and PredictIt. As artificial intelligence becomes more embedded in both real policy and public discourse, prediction markets may play a role in both tracking and shaping opinion on this rapidly evolving landscape.
Thanks for tuning in and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quietplease dot ai.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
On PredictIt, one of the sharpest moves came in the Democratic nomination market, where Kamala Harris saw a sudden uptick. Her contract jumped from 14 cents to 19 cents after an interview with a prominent political strategist went viral, suggesting that key donors are quietly positioning for a post-Biden scenario. While Biden remains the frontrunner at 72 cents, the flurry of buying into Harris is generating speculation that insiders don’t see the nomination as completely locked.
Meanwhile, over on Metaculus, which deals in probabilistic forecasts rather than monetary wagers, the odds that artificial general intelligence will be achieved before the year 2030 ticked up to 28 percent, up from 25 percent just a week ago. This may seem like a small change, but in a slow-moving, expert-driven platform like Metaculus, it marks a meaningful shift. This bump appears to have followed recent statements from leading AI labs forecasting rapid breakthroughs, along with news that several major academic benchmarks in reasoning and translation were surpassed this month.
Among the most surprising changes over the past two days was the Polymarket contract on whether Apple will release a generative artificial intelligence product by the end of this year. Odds had been languishing at 38 percent, but shot up to 51 percent after Bloomberg reported that Apple has staff dedicated to building tools akin to ChatGPT. While no official product has been announced, this market swing suggests bullishness that Apple could reveal something concrete as early as its upcoming developer conference.
One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing intersection between political forecasting and artificial intelligence narratives. Several mixed-topic markets, such as whether an AI-related scandal will impact the 2024 U.S. election, have started getting traction on both Polymarket and PredictIt. As artificial intelligence becomes more embedded in both real policy and public discourse, prediction markets may play a role in both tracking and shaping opinion on this rapidly evolving landscape.
Thanks for tuning in and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quietplease dot ai.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The last forty eight hours have brought some unexpected twists
across the top prediction markets, signaling shifting public sentiment and
perhaps early clues about what's coming next in global politics, tech,
and science. On Polymarket, the top market by volume has
once again been the one asking whether Donald Trump will
win the twenty twenty four US presidential election. After hovering
(00:23):
around fifty eight cents most of the past week, his
contract price surged to sixty two cents late yesterday, marking
a four point spike in less than twelve hours. This
movement followed the news that an appeals court ruled largely
in his favour regarding trial scheduling, giving his campaign a
perception of momentum and reducing legal uncertainty in the eyes
(00:45):
of many betters On predicted. One of the sharpest moves
came in the democratic nomination market, where Kamala Harris saw
a sudden uptick. Her contract jumped from fourteen cents to
nineteen cents after an interview with a promise political strategist
went viral, suggesting that key donors are quietly positioning for
a post Biden scenario. While Biden remains the front runner
(01:09):
at seventy two cents. The flurry of buying into Harris
is generating speculation that insiders don't see the nomination as
completely locked. Meanwhile, over on Metaculus, which deals in probabilistic
forecasts rather than monetary wagers, the odds that artificial general
intelligence will be achieved before the year twenty thirty ticked
(01:30):
up to twenty eight percent, up from twenty five percent
just a week ago. This may seem like a small change,
but in a slow moving, expert driven platform like Metaculus,
it marks a meaningful shift. This bump appears to have
followed recent statements from leading AI labs forecasting rapid breakthroughs,
along with news that several major academic benchmarks in reasoning
(01:53):
and translation were surpassed this month. Among the most surprising
changes over the past two days was the poly market
contract on whether Apple will release a generative artificial intelligence
product by the end of this year. Odds had been
languishing at thirty eight percent, but shot up to fifty
one percent after Bloomberg reported that Apple has staff dedicated
(02:16):
to building tools akin to chat GPT. While no official
product has been announced, this market swing suggests bullishness that
Apple could reveal something Concrete as early as its upcoming
Developer conference. One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing
intersection between political forecasting and artificial intelligence narratives. Several mixed
(02:39):
topic markets, such as whether an AI related scandal will
impact the twenty twenty four US election, have started getting
traction on both polymarket and predicted. As artificial intelligence becomes
more embedded in both real policy and public discourse, prediction
markets may play a role in both tracking and shaping
opinion on this ret rapidly evolving landscape. Thanks for tuning
(03:03):
in and be sure to subscribe so you never miss
an update. This has been a quiet please production. For
more check out Quiet Please dot ai
The last forty eight hours have brought some unexpected twists
across the top prediction markets, signaling shifting public sentiment and
perhaps early clues about what's coming next in global politics, tech,
and science. On Polymarket, the top market by volume has
once again been the one asking whether Donald Trump will
win the twenty twenty four US presidential election. After hovering
(00:23):
around fifty eight cents most of the past week, his
contract price surged to sixty two cents late yesterday, marking
a four point spike in less than twelve hours. This
movement followed the news that an appeals court ruled largely
in his favour regarding trial scheduling, giving his campaign a
perception of momentum and reducing legal uncertainty in the eyes
(00:45):
of many betters On predicted. One of the sharpest moves
came in the democratic nomination market, where Kamala Harris saw
a sudden uptick. Her contract jumped from fourteen cents to
nineteen cents after an interview with a promise political strategist
went viral, suggesting that key donors are quietly positioning for
a post Biden scenario. While Biden remains the front runner
(01:09):
at seventy two cents. The flurry of buying into Harris
is generating speculation that insiders don't see the nomination as
completely locked. Meanwhile, over on Metaculus, which deals in probabilistic
forecasts rather than monetary wagers, the odds that artificial general
intelligence will be achieved before the year twenty thirty ticked
(01:30):
up to twenty eight percent, up from twenty five percent
just a week ago. This may seem like a small change,
but in a slow moving, expert driven platform like Metaculus,
it marks a meaningful shift. This bump appears to have
followed recent statements from leading AI labs forecasting rapid breakthroughs,
along with news that several major academic benchmarks in reasoning
(01:53):
and translation were surpassed this month. Among the most surprising
changes over the past two days was the poly market
contract on whether Apple will release a generative artificial intelligence
product by the end of this year. Odds had been
languishing at thirty eight percent, but shot up to fifty
one percent after Bloomberg reported that Apple has staff dedicated
(02:16):
to building tools akin to chat GPT. While no official
product has been announced, this market swing suggests bullishness that
Apple could reveal something Concrete as early as its upcoming
Developer conference. One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing
intersection between political forecasting and artificial intelligence narratives. Several mixed
(02:39):
topic markets, such as whether an AI related scandal will
impact the twenty twenty four US election, have started getting
traction on both polymarket and predicted. As artificial intelligence becomes
more embedded in both real policy and public discourse, prediction
markets may play a role in both tracking and shaping
opinion on this ret rapidly evolving landscape. Thanks for tuning
(03:03):
in and be sure to subscribe so you never miss
an update. This has been a quiet please production. For
more check out Quiet Please dot ai
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