Prediction Markets Reflect Volatility Ahead of US Election, Global Conflict Risks, and AI Developments

The last two days in prediction markets have been anything but quiet. Across Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus, massive shifts in sentiment are painting a picture of increasing volatility ahead of the US election, global conflict potential, and emerging tech breakthroughs.

Starting with Polymarket, the platform remains dominant in terms of volume. The most traded market by a wide margin is still the 2024 US presidential election. As of this morning, Donald Trump’s odds have surged to 62 percent, up from 56 percent just 48 hours ago. This follows a combination of polling shifts in key swing states and widespread reaction to Joe Biden’s recent debate performance announcement. Biden now sits at 33 percent, with third parties and other options making up the rest.

But what really caught my attention is the flurry of activity in markets beyond electoral politics. The Polymarket contract on whether Israel will carry out a significant military operation in Lebanon before the end of June jumped from 38 percent to 59 percent overnight. Analysts point to escalating rhetoric from both sides and increased IDF troop movements along the border. Reports from The Times of Israel seem to confirm preparations are underway, though no official timetable has been released.

On Metaculus, a longer-term platform known for its community forecasting approach, the question of when artificial general intelligence might arrive has seen a sharp correction. After months of trending toward optimism, predictions that AGI would be achieved before 2030 dropped from 28 percent to just 21 percent. This followed OpenAI cofounder Ilya Sutskever’s announcement that he was launching a new lab with a slower, safety-oriented timeline for AI experimentation.

For those tracking PredictIt, the most notable movement came in the House control market. The probability Republicans retain control rose from 61 cents to 68 cents per share. That shift appears linked to two developments. One, a recent special election in Utah went better than expected for the GOP. Two, Dianne Feinstein’s seat in the Senate is now in play, and party control questions tend to ripple down into House expectations.

The most interesting trend I’m watching is the increased globalization of prediction markets. Polymarket, which was once heavily tilted toward US-centric questions, is now seeing real liquidity in non-domestic events. For example, their market on “Airstrikes in Taiwan by end of 2024” spiked from 14 percent to 25 percent after PLA aircraft buzzed the island in record numbers. Even minor international elections, such as the upcoming vote in Argentina over capital controls, are pulling in six figures in value.

Collectively, these shifts suggest forecasters are responding more quickly to breaking news, and users are becoming increasingly sophisticated in parsing global risk scenarios. Markets are no longer just betting venues, they have become real-time thermometers for geopolitical tension and technology disruption.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The last two days in prediction markets have been anything
but quiet. Across Polymarket, Predicted and Medaculous, massive shifts and
sentiment are painting a picture of increasing volatility ahead of
the US election, global conflict potential, and emerging tech breakthroughs.
Starting with Polymarket, the platform remains dominant in terms of volume.

(00:21):
The most traded market by a wide margin is still
the twenty twenty four US presidential election. As of this morning,
Donald Trump's odds have surged to sixty two percent, up
from fifty six percent just forty eight hours ago. This
follows a combination of polling shifts in key swing states
and widespread reaction to Joe Biden's recent debate performance announcement.

(00:44):
Biden now sits at thirty three percent, with third parties
and other options making up the rest. But what really
caught my attention is the flurry of activity in markets
beyond electoral politics. The polymarket contract on whether Israel will
carry out as significant military operation in Lebanon before the
end of June jumped from thirty eight percent to fifty

(01:06):
nine percent overnight. Analysts point to escalating rhetoric from both
sides and increased IDF troop movements along the border. Reports
from the Times of Israel seemed to confirm preparations are
under way, though no official timetable has been released. On metaculous,
a longer term platform known for its community forecasting approach,

(01:27):
the question of when artificial general intelligence might arrive has
seen a sharp correction. After months of trending toward optimism,
predictions that AGI would be achieved before twenty thirty dropped
from twenty eight percent to just twenty one percent. This
followed OpenAI co founder Ilia Sutskever's announcement that he was

(01:48):
launching a new lab with a slower, safety oriented timeline
for AI experimentation. For those tracking predicted, the most notable
movement came in the house control market. Probbability Republicans retain
control rose from sixty one cents to sixty eight cents
per share. That shift appears linked to two developments. One,

(02:09):
a recent special election in Utah went better than expected
for the GOP. Two, Dianne Feinstein's seat in the Senate
is now in play, and party control questions tend to
ripple down into House expectations. The most interesting trend I'm
watching is the increased globalization of prediction markets. Polymarket, which
was once heavily tilted toward US centric questions, is now

(02:32):
seeing real liquidity in non domestic events. For example, their
market on airstrikes in Taiwan by end of twenty twenty
four spiked from fourteen percent to twenty five percent after
PLA aircraft buzz the island in record numbers. Even minor
international elections such as the upcoming vote in Argentina over
capital controls, are pulling in six figures in value collectively.

(02:56):
These shifts suggest forecasters are responding more quickly to breaking
news and users are becoming increasingly sophisticated in parsing global
risk scenarios. Markets are no longer just betting venues. They
have become real time thermometers for geopolitical tension and technology disruption.
Thanks for tuning in and be sure to subscribe so

(03:17):
you never miss an update. This has been a quiet
please production. For more check out Quiet Please dot ai