Prediction markets see volatility ahead of 2024 U.S. election

The past couple of days have brought fresh volatility across prediction markets, with traders recalibrating odds in real time as new polls, headlines, and events unfold. Polymarket continues to dominate in terms of volume, with its 2024 U.S. presidential election markets pulling in roughly 2.6 million dollars in trading just in the past 48 hours. As of this morning, the market for "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 election?" climbed to 61 cents, up four points since Wednesday, while the contract for Joe Biden fell to 34 cents. That drop marks Biden’s lowest point since late March and has some users pulling liquidity from longer-term contracts like “Will Biden be the Democratic nominee?” which has slipped from 83 to 79 cents.

One especially dramatic move came in the “Will Joe Biden be replaced as nominee?” market. Over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, that market surged from 17 to 23 cents, following a string of op-eds from former Democratic strategists questioning the campaign’s viability, combined with a damaging CNN poll showing Biden trailing Trump by six points nationally. The price action there suggests a growing sense of unease among traders, though there’s still no credible signal from party leadership that a replacement is being considered.

Meanwhile, Metaculus, with its focus on quantified forecasting and expert consensus, saw a major shift in its probabilistic forecast for whether the House of Representatives will flip Republican in November. That forecast jumped from 42 percent to 49 percent after a key retirement announcement in a competitive Pennsylvania district, combined with updated district-level polling that now favors Republican turnout. Forecast contributors noted increased national momentum for Republican fundraising as part of the sudden spike.

On PredictIt, where U.S. politics is the bread and butter, there was a notable change in the market for “Which party will win the Senate in 2024?” With recent gains for the GOP in Montana and Arizona polling, the Republican contract rose from 58 to 62 cents, while the Democrat contract fell by four points. Traders seem to be responding to messaging pivots from Republican Senate candidates in battlegrounds, emphasizing cost of living and the ongoing southern border debate.

One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing divergence between expert-oriented platforms like Metaculus and retail-heavy platforms like Polymarket. For instance, while Polymarket gives Trump a 61 percent chance to win the presidency, Metaculus forecasters still show Biden slightly favored, hovering around 53 percent. This disconnect may reflect ideological bias among retail traders or slower reaction times among consensus-based forecasts, but either way it signals a growing complexity in interpreting public versus expert sentiment.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The past couple of days have brought fresh volatility across
prediction markets, with traders recalibrating odds in real time as
new polls, headlines, and events unfold. Polymarket continues to dominate
in terms of volume, with its twenty twenty four US
presidential election markets pulling in roughly two point six million
dollars in trading just in the past forty eight hours.

(00:24):
As of this morning, the market for will Donald Trump
win the twenty twenty four election climbed to sixty one cents,
up four points since Wednesday, while the contract for Joe
Biden fell to thirty four cents. That drop marks Biden's
lowest points since late March and has some users pulling
liquidity from longer term contracts like will Biden be the
Democratic nominee, which has slipped from eighty three to seventy

(00:47):
nine cents. One especially dramatic move came in the will
Joe Biden be replaced as nominee market over the past
twenty four hours on polymarket. That market surged from seventeen
to two twenty three cents following a string of op
eds from former Democratic strategists questioning the campaign's viability combined

(01:08):
with a damaging CNN poll showing Biden trailing Trump by
six points nationally. The price action there suggests a growing
sense of unease among traders, though there's still no credible
signal from party leadership that a replacement is being considered. Meanwhile, Metaculous,
with its focus on quantified forecasting and expert consensus, saw

(01:30):
a major shift in its probabilistic forecast for whether the
House of Representatives will flip Republican in November. That forecast
jumped from forty two percent to forty nine percent after
a key retirement announcement in a competitive Pennsylvania district, combined
with updated district level polling that now favors Republican turnout.

(01:51):
Forecast contributors noted increased national momentum for Republican fundraising as
part of the sudden spike on predicted where US politics
is the bread and butter, There was a notable change
in the market for which party will win the Senate
in twenty twenty four, with recent gains for the GOP
in Montana and Arizona polling, The Republican contract rose from

(02:13):
fifty eight to sixty two cents, while the Democrat contract
fell by four points. Traders seemed to be responding to
messaging pivots from Republican Senate candidates in battlegrounds emphasizing cost
of living and the ongoing Southern Border debate. One emerging
trend worth watching is the increasing divergence between expert oriented
platforms like Medoculous and retail heavy platforms like Polymarket. For instance,

(02:39):
while Polymarket gives Trump a sixty one percent chance to
win the presidency, Meticulous forecasters still show Biden slightly favored,
hovering around fifty three percent. This disconnect may reflect ideological
bias among retail traders or slower reaction times among consensus
based forecasts, but either way, it's signals a growing complexity

(03:01):
in interpreting public versus expert sentiment. Thanks for tuning in
and make sure to subscribe so you never miss the
latest forecast shifts. This has been a quiet please production.
For more check out Quiet Please dot ai