Prediction markets see volatility as Trump surges, Gaza ceasefire prospects rise, and AGI likelihood grows

It has been a busy few days in the world of prediction markets, with some big swings across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. The most active market by volume over the past 48 hours has once again been the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump's contract on Polymarket jumping to 56 cents as of this morning, up from 51 cents just two days ago. That move appears to have been triggered by the announcement of a favorable internal poll from a major Republican super PAC, which shows Trump outperforming in key swing states. Joe Biden's contract fell to 39 cents in response, its lowest level in nearly two months.

Another major mover on Polymarket has been the market on whether a ceasefire agreement will be reached in Gaza by the end of June. Just 48 hours ago, the market stood at 34 cents for yes. Following reports from Reuters that Egypt was brokering a new deal that both Hamas and Israel were reportedly considering seriously, the probability shot up to 44 cents before retracing slightly to 41 cents midday today. Traders remain cautious due to prior false starts, but volume has picked up notably, suggesting that sentiment is shifting again in response to new diplomatic signals.

Metaculus, which leans more toward long-term forecasting, has seen subtle but significant movement on its forecast for whether artificial general intelligence, or AGI, will emerge before 2030. The community forecast now sits at 28 percent, up from 25 percent just three weeks ago. That may not sound like much, but it is the largest month-to-month jump since last October. The shift follows a series of announcements from leading AI labs about breakthroughs in multimodal capabilities and agentic reasoning systems. While still a minority view, more forecasters seem willing to entertain the idea that AGI may be closer than previously estimated.

On PredictIt, the Senate control market for the upcoming election made headlines this week as well. Republican control now trades at 61 cents, up from 54 cents earlier this week. A new poll out of Michigan showing the GOP candidate leading in a swing Senate race appears to have fueled the movement. While the shift might seem small, these margins matter in a market where expectations are tightly coupled to fundraising and turnout models.

One emerging trend to watch is the growing divergence between crypto-based markets like Polymarket and expert-curated platforms like Metaculus. On the issue of a potential Russian offensive in northeastern Ukraine, Polymarket odds moved sharply following satellite images circulated on social media, jumping to 52 percent for a new offensive by mid-July. Metaculus remained more conservative, with its forecast only inching up to 39 percent. This reflects a broader pattern we are seeing more often, where crowd sentiment reacts quickly to unverified reports, while calibrated forecasting models remain more measured.

Thanks for tuning in and remember to subscribe so you do not miss the next update. This has been a quiet please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
It has been a busy few days in the world
of prediction markets, with some big swings across platforms like Polymarket,
Predicted and Meticules. The most active market by volume over
the past forty eight hours has once again been the
twenty twenty four US presidential election, with Donald Trump's contract
on Polymarket jumping to fifty six cents as of this morning,

(00:22):
up from fifty one cents just two days ago. That
move appears to have been triggered by the announcement of
a favorable internal poll from a major Republican super pac
which shows Trump outperforming in key swing states. Joe Biden's
contract fell to thirty nine cents in response, its lowest
level in nearly two months. Another major mover on polymarket

(00:45):
has been the market on whether a ceasefire agreement will
be reached in Gaza by the end of June. Just
forty eight hours ago, the market stood at thirty four
cents for yes. Following reports from Reuter's that Egypt was
brokering a new deal that both Hamas and Israel were
reportedly considering seriously, the probability shot up to forty four
cents before retracing slightly to forty one cents midday today.

(01:09):
Traders remain cautious due to prior false starts, but volume
has picked up notably, suggesting that sentiment is shifting again
in response to new diplomatic signals. Metaculus, which leans more
toward long term forecasting, has seen subtle but significant movement
on its forecast for whether artificial general intelligence or AGI

(01:30):
will emerge before twenty thirty. The community forecast now sits
at twenty eight percent, up from twenty five percent just
three weeks ago. That may not sound like much, but
it is the largest month to month jump since last October.
The shift follows a series of announcements from leading AI
labs about breakthroughs in multimodal capabilities and edgentic reasoning systems.

(01:53):
While still a minority view, more forecasters seem willing to
entertain the idea that AGI may be closer than previously
estimated on predicted. The Senate control market for the upcoming
election made headlines this week as well. Republican control now
trades at sixty one cents, up from fifty four cents earlier.
This week, a new poll out of Michigan showing the

(02:15):
GOP candidate leading in a swing Senate race appears to
have fueled the movement. While the shift might seem small,
these margins matter in a market where expectations are tightly
coupled to fundraising and turnout models. One emerging trend to
watch is the growing divergence between crypto based markets like
polymarket and expert curated platforms like Meticulus. On the issue

(02:39):
of a potential Russian offensive in northeastern Ukraine, Polymarket odds
moved sharply following satellite images circulated on social media, jumping
to fifty two percent for a new offensive by mid July.
Metaculus remained more conservative, with its forecast only inching up
to thirty nine percent. This reflects a broader pattern we

(03:00):
are seeing more often where crowd sentiment reacts quickly to
unverified reports, while calibrated forecasting models remain more measured. Thanks
for tuning in and remember to subscribe so you do
not miss the next update. This has been a quiet
please production For more check out quiet Please dot ai