August 17, 2025 • 3 mins
Prediction markets have been buzzing this week, with strong movements across Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. Right now, Polymarket is dominating both in volume and in setting the tone for expectations ahead of the U.S. presidential election. The top market by far is the one asking who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential race. Donald Trump currently holds a 56 percent probability, while Joe Biden has slipped to 38 percent, down three points from earlier this week. Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Michelle Obama continue to trade in low single digits, but Kamala ticked up slightly yesterday to 5 percent, a one-point bump that has drawn attention in political forecasting circles.
Over on PredictIt, the top markets have followed suit. Trump's contract for winning the presidency is trading at 57 cents, with Biden trailing at 39 cents. One of the more surprising changes there came in the market over who will be the Democratic nominee. Biden is still leading with 68 cents, but that figure was over 73 cents just two days ago. The five-point drop appears tied to a mix of recent cognitive gaffes from the President combined with increased chatter over a possible last-minute shift at the convention if polling continues to weaken.
Metaculus, the crowd-forecasting and prediction aggregation platform often favored for long-term scenarios, has begun reflecting more pessimism about the likelihood of an AI pause being implemented by the end of 2025. That probability dropped from 42 percent to just 35 percent in the last 48 hours. Forecasters cite the acceleration of new model announcements and a general lack of legislative discussion on a global moratorium as signals working against such a move.
The most notable market movement in the past two days actually came from an unexpected sector. Polymarket's "Will Apple release a generative AI product by the end of 2024" contract surged from 41 percent to 62 percent following new reports that Apple may announce on-device generative tools in June during their Worldwide Developers Conference. Insiders seem to believe a Siri overhaul is imminent and would count as a confirmation on the contract. Traders who acted earlier this week locked in sizable gains, but the remaining upside now seems limited unless Apple confirms the feature set more directly.
One emerging trend to watch closely across these platforms is the pivot toward geopolitics, particularly regarding China and Europe. Prediction markets are beginning to open more volume around scenarios like a Taiwan blockade or leadership changes in Russia. Metaculus has recently seen record participation in scenarios involving cyber attacks attributed to nation states, showing that what used to be fringe areas of focus are moving into the mainstream forecasting world.
Thanks for tuning in, and don't forget to subscribe so you don't miss the next update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
Over on PredictIt, the top markets have followed suit. Trump's contract for winning the presidency is trading at 57 cents, with Biden trailing at 39 cents. One of the more surprising changes there came in the market over who will be the Democratic nominee. Biden is still leading with 68 cents, but that figure was over 73 cents just two days ago. The five-point drop appears tied to a mix of recent cognitive gaffes from the President combined with increased chatter over a possible last-minute shift at the convention if polling continues to weaken.
Metaculus, the crowd-forecasting and prediction aggregation platform often favored for long-term scenarios, has begun reflecting more pessimism about the likelihood of an AI pause being implemented by the end of 2025. That probability dropped from 42 percent to just 35 percent in the last 48 hours. Forecasters cite the acceleration of new model announcements and a general lack of legislative discussion on a global moratorium as signals working against such a move.
The most notable market movement in the past two days actually came from an unexpected sector. Polymarket's "Will Apple release a generative AI product by the end of 2024" contract surged from 41 percent to 62 percent following new reports that Apple may announce on-device generative tools in June during their Worldwide Developers Conference. Insiders seem to believe a Siri overhaul is imminent and would count as a confirmation on the contract. Traders who acted earlier this week locked in sizable gains, but the remaining upside now seems limited unless Apple confirms the feature set more directly.
One emerging trend to watch closely across these platforms is the pivot toward geopolitics, particularly regarding China and Europe. Prediction markets are beginning to open more volume around scenarios like a Taiwan blockade or leadership changes in Russia. Metaculus has recently seen record participation in scenarios involving cyber attacks attributed to nation states, showing that what used to be fringe areas of focus are moving into the mainstream forecasting world.
Thanks for tuning in, and don't forget to subscribe so you don't miss the next update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Prediction markets have been buzzing this week, with strong movements
across Polymarket, Predicted and Meticulous. Right now, Polymarket is dominating
both in volume and in setting the tone for expectations
ahead of the US presidential election. The top market, by
far is the one asking who will win the twenty
twenty four US presidential race. Donald Trump currently holds a
(00:23):
fifty six percent probability, while Joe Biden has slipped to
thirty eight percent, down three points from earlier this week.
Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Michelle Obama continue to trade
in low single digits, but Kamala ticked up slightly yesterday
to five percent, a one point bump that has drawn
attention in political forecasting circles. Over on Predicted, the top
(00:46):
markets have followed suit. Trump's contract for winning the presidency
is trading at fifty seven cents, with Biden trailing at
thirty nine cents. One of the more surprising changes there
came in the market over who will be the Democratic nominee.
Biden is still leading with sixty eight cents, but that
figure was over seventy three cents just two days ago.
(01:07):
The five point drop appears tied to a mix of
recent cognitive gaffes from the President combined with increased chatter
over a possible last minute shift at the convention if
polling continues to weaken. Metaculous, the crowd forecasting and prediction
aggregation platform often favored for long term scenarios, has begun
(01:27):
reflecting more pessimism about the likelihood of an AI pause
being implemented by the end of twenty twenty five. That
probability dropped from forty two percent to just thirty five
percent in the last forty eight hours. Forecasters cite the
acceleration of new model announcements and a general lack of
legislative discussion on a global moratorium as signals working against
(01:49):
such a move. The most notable market movement in the
past two days actually came from an unexpected sector, polymarkets.
Will Apple release a generative AI product by the end
of twenty twenty four contract surged from forty one percent
to sixty two percent following new reports that Apple may
announce on device generative tools in June during their Worldwide
(02:11):
Developers Conference. Insiders seem to believe a serie overhaul is
imminent and would count as a confirmation on the contract
traders who acted earlier this week locked in sizeable gains,
but the remaining upside now seems limited unless Apple confirms
the feature set more directly. One emerging trend to watch
(02:32):
closely across these platforms is the pivot toward geopolitics, particularly
regarding China and Europe. Prediction markets are beginning to open
more volume around scenarios like a Taiwan blockade or leadership
changes in Russia. Metaculus has recently seen record participation in
scenarios involving cyber attacks attributed to nation states, showing that
(02:54):
what used to be fringe areas of focus are moving
into the mainstream forecasting world. Thanks for tuning in and
don't forget to subscribe so you don't miss the next update.
This has been a quiet please production. For more check
out quiet Please dot a I
Prediction markets have been buzzing this week, with strong movements
across Polymarket, Predicted and Meticulous. Right now, Polymarket is dominating
both in volume and in setting the tone for expectations
ahead of the US presidential election. The top market, by
far is the one asking who will win the twenty
twenty four US presidential race. Donald Trump currently holds a
(00:23):
fifty six percent probability, while Joe Biden has slipped to
thirty eight percent, down three points from earlier this week.
Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Michelle Obama continue to trade
in low single digits, but Kamala ticked up slightly yesterday
to five percent, a one point bump that has drawn
attention in political forecasting circles. Over on Predicted, the top
(00:46):
markets have followed suit. Trump's contract for winning the presidency
is trading at fifty seven cents, with Biden trailing at
thirty nine cents. One of the more surprising changes there
came in the market over who will be the Democratic nominee.
Biden is still leading with sixty eight cents, but that
figure was over seventy three cents just two days ago.
(01:07):
The five point drop appears tied to a mix of
recent cognitive gaffes from the President combined with increased chatter
over a possible last minute shift at the convention if
polling continues to weaken. Metaculous, the crowd forecasting and prediction
aggregation platform often favored for long term scenarios, has begun
(01:27):
reflecting more pessimism about the likelihood of an AI pause
being implemented by the end of twenty twenty five. That
probability dropped from forty two percent to just thirty five
percent in the last forty eight hours. Forecasters cite the
acceleration of new model announcements and a general lack of
legislative discussion on a global moratorium as signals working against
(01:49):
such a move. The most notable market movement in the
past two days actually came from an unexpected sector, polymarkets.
Will Apple release a generative AI product by the end
of twenty twenty four contract surged from forty one percent
to sixty two percent following new reports that Apple may
announce on device generative tools in June during their Worldwide
(02:11):
Developers Conference. Insiders seem to believe a serie overhaul is
imminent and would count as a confirmation on the contract
traders who acted earlier this week locked in sizeable gains,
but the remaining upside now seems limited unless Apple confirms
the feature set more directly. One emerging trend to watch
(02:32):
closely across these platforms is the pivot toward geopolitics, particularly
regarding China and Europe. Prediction markets are beginning to open
more volume around scenarios like a Taiwan blockade or leadership
changes in Russia. Metaculus has recently seen record participation in
scenarios involving cyber attacks attributed to nation states, showing that
(02:54):
what used to be fringe areas of focus are moving
into the mainstream forecasting world. Thanks for tuning in and
don't forget to subscribe so you don't miss the next update.
This has been a quiet please production. For more check
out quiet Please dot a I
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