Prediction Markets Shift Towards Trump 2024 Bid, Biden Dropout Concerns Rise

Prediction markets have become faster and more responsive in the past two days, with several top platforms showing sharp shifts that suggest new momentum in the world's most watched stories. On Polymarket, where traders bet in real time on everything from politics to pop culture, the U.S. presidential election remains dominant by volume. As of this morning, the market for "Trump to win 2024" is leading with over 12 million dollars in total wagers. The probability for a Trump victory stands at 58 percent, up three points from just two days ago. The Biden contract, meanwhile, dipped to 33 percent. That three percent drop came immediately after a report from the Wall Street Journal about internal Democratic polling showing weakening support in Michigan and Pennsylvania. On PredictIt, the mirrored contracts show a narrower spread. Trump is priced at 54 cents while Biden hovers around 43. There is still room for reversal, but sentiment is clearly shifting.

The most surprising change comes from a market that flew under the radar until now. On Polymarket’s "Will Biden drop out before November" line, the probability jumped from 12 percent to 27 percent overnight after a New York Times article detailed growing concern inside his campaign about voter enthusiasm. Some of Biden’s most vocal allies appear to be reevaluating the path forward. Whether this is just market overreaction or a signal of deeper uncertainty remains to be seen, but that 15-point swing in less than 24 hours has drawn a lot of attention.

Metaculus, the forecasting platform driven by aggregated estimates from thousands of contributors, has shown a different rhythm. Its community still gives Trump a 53 percent chance of winning in November but is slower to react to press coverage or small polling changes. What’s notable from Metaculus is a shift in the Electoral College forecast. Florida, once seen as solidly red, was downgraded slightly in the consensus odds following recent polling showing a tightening race there.

One evident trend across all three platforms is the growing divergence between expert forecasts and betting markets. Metaculus forecasters, many with strong data backgrounds, continue to assign slightly lower chances to Trump and assign more weight to turnout variability and youth vote behavior. Polymarket and PredictIt, which include more trader emotion and immediate reaction to headlines, are leaning toward Trump across nearly all states except for California and New York-based odds. This divergence could be due to retail traders placing heavier bets on short-term news impact, while forecasters tend to take a longer view.

Keep an eye on Senate control markets, too. After being relatively stable for weeks, Polymarket showed a sudden rise in Republican odds to take the Senate, now sitting at 71 percent. This is up six points since yesterday and appears linked to the continuing fallout from the Menendez trial and the GOP’s improving polling numbers in Ohio and Montana.

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