August 10, 2025 • 3 mins
The past forty-eight hours have brought a flurry of unexpected movement across key prediction markets, as traders and forecasters adjust to fast-breaking news in both politics and global events. On Polymarket, one of the fastest-growing decentralized platforms, volume remains heavily concentrated on the 2024 US presidential race, with the market asking who will win the general election trading at over two million dollars in open interest. As of this morning, Donald Trump regained the lead from Joe Biden, now trading at 53 cents to Biden’s 44 cents, a reversal from just three days ago when Biden briefly overtook Trump following the Supreme Court’s hearing on presidential immunity. The volatility suggests traders are weighing legal uncertainty against election fundamentals.
Meanwhile, on PredictIt, which caters more heavily to political event forecasting, the market on whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in November has seen a sharp price correction. As of Tuesday morning, Biden’s probability sits at 75 percent, down six points from Sunday. This dip follows reports of increasing Democratic concern over his age and performance, especially after an unflattering New York Times poll released Monday showed Trump leading Biden in several key swing states. Interestingly, Gavin Newsom has surged slightly, now trading at 12 percent, a level he had not reached since early March.
On Metaculus, the community-driven forecasting platform popular with forecasters in science, technology, and geopolitics, the most notable activity comes from a different arena entirely. A question on whether there will be a declared ceasefire in Gaza before July first has jumped from 18 percent to 34 percent likelihood. Forecasters have pointed to renewed diplomatic activity from Egypt and Qatar, along with recent comments from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting a framework is finally coming together. If this momentum continues, we could see a rapid re-pricing of several Middle East-related markets in the coming days.
What stands out from the past two days is the degree to which markets have become hypersensitive to even minor shifts in narrative. One emerging trend worth watching is that information from traditionally slow media outlets is getting priced into markets more rapidly than before. For example, the Times poll on Biden’s swing state performance led to instant declines on both Polymarket and PredictIt, within minutes of publication. This suggests that human traders, not just algorithmic scraping tools, are becoming faster at interpreting complex multi-factor reports and turning them into confident positions. It may also reflect broader awareness that 2024’s electoral dynamics are more fluid than usual, leaving even experienced forecasters cautious.
As we move into the second half of this week, I’ll be watching closely for any follow-through on the Gaza ceasefire market, as well as any further erosion in confidence in Biden among Democratic primary bettors. Thanks for tuning in, and make sure to subscribe for ongoing coverage of the world’s most dynamic forecasting spaces.
This has been a quiet please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
Meanwhile, on PredictIt, which caters more heavily to political event forecasting, the market on whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in November has seen a sharp price correction. As of Tuesday morning, Biden’s probability sits at 75 percent, down six points from Sunday. This dip follows reports of increasing Democratic concern over his age and performance, especially after an unflattering New York Times poll released Monday showed Trump leading Biden in several key swing states. Interestingly, Gavin Newsom has surged slightly, now trading at 12 percent, a level he had not reached since early March.
On Metaculus, the community-driven forecasting platform popular with forecasters in science, technology, and geopolitics, the most notable activity comes from a different arena entirely. A question on whether there will be a declared ceasefire in Gaza before July first has jumped from 18 percent to 34 percent likelihood. Forecasters have pointed to renewed diplomatic activity from Egypt and Qatar, along with recent comments from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting a framework is finally coming together. If this momentum continues, we could see a rapid re-pricing of several Middle East-related markets in the coming days.
What stands out from the past two days is the degree to which markets have become hypersensitive to even minor shifts in narrative. One emerging trend worth watching is that information from traditionally slow media outlets is getting priced into markets more rapidly than before. For example, the Times poll on Biden’s swing state performance led to instant declines on both Polymarket and PredictIt, within minutes of publication. This suggests that human traders, not just algorithmic scraping tools, are becoming faster at interpreting complex multi-factor reports and turning them into confident positions. It may also reflect broader awareness that 2024’s electoral dynamics are more fluid than usual, leaving even experienced forecasters cautious.
As we move into the second half of this week, I’ll be watching closely for any follow-through on the Gaza ceasefire market, as well as any further erosion in confidence in Biden among Democratic primary bettors. Thanks for tuning in, and make sure to subscribe for ongoing coverage of the world’s most dynamic forecasting spaces.
This has been a quiet please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The past forty eight hours have brought a flurry of
unexpected movement across key prediction markets as traders and forecasters
adjust to fast breaking news in both politics and global events.
On Polymarket, one of the fastest growing decentralized platforms, volume
remains heavily concentrated on the twenty twenty four US presidential race,
(00:21):
with the market asking who will win the general election
trading at over two million dollars in open interest. As
of this morning, Donald Trump regained the lead from Joe Biden,
now trading at fifty three cents to Biden's forty four cents,
a reversal from just three days ago when Biden briefly
overtook Trump following the Supreme Court's hearing on presidential immunity.
(00:44):
The volatility suggests traders are weighing legal uncertainty against election fundamentals. Meanwhile,
on predicted which caters more heavily to political event forecasting,
the market on whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic
nominee in November has seen a shit dar price correction.
As of Tuesday morning, Biden's probability sits at seventy five percent,
(01:06):
down six points from Sunday. This dip follows reports of
increasing democratic concern over his age and performance, especially after
an unflattering New York Times poll released Monday showed Trump
leading Biden in several key swing states. Interestingly, Gavin Newsom
has surged slightly, now trading at twelve percent, a level
(01:27):
he had not reached since early March. On Metaculous, the
community driven forecasting platform popular with forecasters in science, technology,
and geopolitics, the most notable activity comes from a different
arena entirely. A question on whether there will be a
declared ceasefire in Gaza before July first has jumped from
eighteen percent to thirty four per cent likelihood. Forecasters have
(01:51):
pointed to renewed diplomatic activity from Egypt and Qatar, along
with recent comments from U S Secretary of State Antony
Blinkett suggesting a framework is finally coming together. If this
momentum continues, we could see a rapid repricing of several
Middle East related markets in the coming days. What stands
(02:12):
out from the past two days is the degree to
which markets have become hyper sensitive to even minor shifts
in narrative. One emerging trend worth watching is that information
from traditionally slow media outlets is getting priced into markets
more rapidly than before. For example, the Times poll on
Biden's swing state performance led to instant declines on both
(02:34):
polymarket and predicted within minutes of publication. This suggests that
human traders, not just algorithmic scraping tools, are becoming faster
at interpreting complex multi factor reports and turning them into
confident positions. It may also reflect broader awareness that twenty
twenty four's electoral dynamics are more fluid than usual, leaving
(02:56):
even experienced forecasters cautious. As we move into the second
half of this week, I'll be watching closely for any
follow through on the Gaza ceasefire market, as well as
any further erosion in confidence in Biden among Democratic primary betters.
Thanks for tuning in and make sure to subscribe for
ongoing coverage of the world's most dynamic forecasting spaces. This
(03:20):
has been a quiet please production. For more check out
Quiet please dot ai
The past forty eight hours have brought a flurry of
unexpected movement across key prediction markets as traders and forecasters
adjust to fast breaking news in both politics and global events.
On Polymarket, one of the fastest growing decentralized platforms, volume
remains heavily concentrated on the twenty twenty four US presidential race,
(00:21):
with the market asking who will win the general election
trading at over two million dollars in open interest. As
of this morning, Donald Trump regained the lead from Joe Biden,
now trading at fifty three cents to Biden's forty four cents,
a reversal from just three days ago when Biden briefly
overtook Trump following the Supreme Court's hearing on presidential immunity.
(00:44):
The volatility suggests traders are weighing legal uncertainty against election fundamentals. Meanwhile,
on predicted which caters more heavily to political event forecasting,
the market on whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic
nominee in November has seen a shit dar price correction.
As of Tuesday morning, Biden's probability sits at seventy five percent,
(01:06):
down six points from Sunday. This dip follows reports of
increasing democratic concern over his age and performance, especially after
an unflattering New York Times poll released Monday showed Trump
leading Biden in several key swing states. Interestingly, Gavin Newsom
has surged slightly, now trading at twelve percent, a level
(01:27):
he had not reached since early March. On Metaculous, the
community driven forecasting platform popular with forecasters in science, technology,
and geopolitics, the most notable activity comes from a different
arena entirely. A question on whether there will be a
declared ceasefire in Gaza before July first has jumped from
eighteen percent to thirty four per cent likelihood. Forecasters have
(01:51):
pointed to renewed diplomatic activity from Egypt and Qatar, along
with recent comments from U S Secretary of State Antony
Blinkett suggesting a framework is finally coming together. If this
momentum continues, we could see a rapid repricing of several
Middle East related markets in the coming days. What stands
(02:12):
out from the past two days is the degree to
which markets have become hyper sensitive to even minor shifts
in narrative. One emerging trend worth watching is that information
from traditionally slow media outlets is getting priced into markets
more rapidly than before. For example, the Times poll on
Biden's swing state performance led to instant declines on both
(02:34):
polymarket and predicted within minutes of publication. This suggests that
human traders, not just algorithmic scraping tools, are becoming faster
at interpreting complex multi factor reports and turning them into
confident positions. It may also reflect broader awareness that twenty
twenty four's electoral dynamics are more fluid than usual, leaving
(02:56):
even experienced forecasters cautious. As we move into the second
half of this week, I'll be watching closely for any
follow through on the Gaza ceasefire market, as well as
any further erosion in confidence in Biden among Democratic primary betters.
Thanks for tuning in and make sure to subscribe for
ongoing coverage of the world's most dynamic forecasting spaces. This
(03:20):
has been a quiet please production. For more check out
Quiet please dot ai
Popular Podcasts
NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal
Gregg Rosenthal and a rotating crew of elite NFL Media co-hosts, including Patrick Claybon, Colleen Wolfe, Steve Wyche, Nick Shook and Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic get you caught up daily on all the NFL news and analysis you need to be smarter and funnier than your friends.
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com