45. China’s Balancing Act: Coal, Renewables and Nuclear (1/2)

In Episode 45 of the *Redefining Energy TECH* series, host Michael Barnard invites David Fishman, a senior manager at Lantau Group. David delves into the intricacies of China's energy landscape, highlighting the country's efforts to balance growth and decarbonization. Despite coal's continued dominance, constituting 55-60% of the energy mix, Fishman discusses measures aimed at limiting its growth. While projections suggest a slight increase in coal consumption due to weaker hydropower performance, China is making strides to shut down smaller, less efficient coal plants. Efforts to grow electricity consumption without proportionally increasing coal usage remain a priority, with current coal plant utilization rates around 48-49%.

Natural gas plays a minor role in China’s power generation, primarily confined to coastal regions where LNG imports supplement energy needs. LNG is an emerging trend in transportation, with 8% of heavy long-distance trucks now powered by LNG, offering an alternative to diesel. The rise of electric vehicles is also noteworthy, as Tesla sales in China grew by 8.8%, bucking the trend of global sales declines.

China’s nuclear sector, once envisioned as a central pillar of its energy strategy, has faced delays but is now regaining momentum. The development of domestic nuclear technology, particularly the Hualong 1 reactor, has enabled the approval of ten new reactors annually since 2022. Although nuclear energy’s role has shifted from a backbone solution to a niche yet critical component, Fishman underscores its potential importance in achieving the final stages of grid decarbonization.

The episode also explores China’s robust progress in renewable energy. Wind and solar power, which began scaling up in the late 2000s, are now adding an impressive 300 gigawatts annually, consistently exceeding targets. While nuclear remains behind on its ambitious goals, renewables continue to lead the charge in transforming China’s energy system. Fishman reflects on the unique scalability of China’s nuclear program, noting the challenges other countries may face in replicating its rapid progress. With renewables, nuclear, and a shifting transportation landscape, China’s energy future presents both challenges and opportunities for decarbonization.