Amen Thompson breakdown and Houston’s other draft options

Episode Transcript
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(00:01):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome toThe lagger Line, an exclusive podcast from
the home of the Rockets, SportsTalk seven ninety The lagger Line. It's
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(00:22):
Red Nation. Get ready to getready, Get Ready. The lagger
Line starts now. Welcome onboard,Ben Dubos here, Paulo Awlve's there,
Welcome into yet another episode of Thelagger Line, our third of the week.

(00:45):
As always, the show has servedto you courtesy of Clutch City lagger
of Carback Brewing, and with additionalsupport from our friends over at Sports Talk
seven ninety, the official flagship radiostation of your Houston Rockets. As for
us, for your host, youcan follow Paulo on Twitter at Palo ALVE's
NBA. The show on Twitter atthe Loggerline and via the link tree in
our Twitter bio, and you canfollow me on Twitter at Ben Dubos.

(01:08):
You can also read my work inUSA Today's Rocketswire, where I'm the editor.
Just hit up Rocketswire dot USA todaydot com. Our most recent shows
in the last few days have beena bit more free agency focused, and
certainly there's good reason for that,since the Rockets have at least sixty million
dollars in cap room and free agencynegotiations can officially take place just two weeks

(01:29):
from now, on Friday, Junethirtieth, but the NBA Draft, where
the Rockets currently sit at number four, number twenty in the first round order,
is even sooner than that, onThursday, June and twenty second.
So in today's show, we're goingto pivot back to something of a draft
focus. To do that, we'rejoined by Cooper Kline, NBA draft analysts
with Upside Swings and the Chop Shop. You can follow him on Twitter at

(01:49):
Ali Underscore, Oop Underscore Coop Cooper, thanks so much for taking the time.
You're ready to go. Yeah,I'm doing great. I've been basically
doing NonStop in NBA draft for thepast few days and you know, basically
for the past few months. Andthis is my favorite topic of conversations,
the Houston Rockets draft. So let'shop right in. All right, let's

(02:10):
start at the very top, becausethe Rockets for a third straight year,
have a lottery pick. They're inthe top four yet again this year at
number four, and as I understandit from talking to people around the Rockets.
After Victor wimban Yama at number one, who is basically his own tier,
there's five players in fairly close proximityScoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, i'm

(02:34):
In Thompson A Sara Thompson, andCam Whitmore. The Rockets are right in
the middle of the five. Theypick well fourth overall, but their third
amongst the next five picks, sothey're right in the middle. You could
trade up, conceivably to two orthree. There was a report today from
Jake Fisher of Yahoo Sports mentioning thatas possibility. There's also options to trade

(02:55):
back. Michael Scotto, who wehad a pod very recently, mentioned that
Orlando's looking to package six and elevento move up. So you could stay
where you are. You could potentiallymove up all, but it would cost
a pretty penny I suspect to getin that very top tier of those five.
You can also pick up some additionalassets by moving back. Before we
get into the scenarios, Cooper,how do you rank those five? Scoot,

(03:17):
Brandon, Alman, Asar and Camwhat you're ordering before we go into
the analysis. So I will getflame, especially on this podcast, but
I have Amen Thompson it too atthe top of that group. I got
him and Scoot are back to back. You cannot go wrong with either of
those two, right, But Ithink Amen has a slightly higher ceiling,

(03:40):
right, so that that gives himthe slight edge. There After that,
it goes Azar, Cam, Miller, and Azar and Camera in a tier
together, and then I have Milleras at the bottom of that group.
Pretty solidly, I definitely go forthe other four. There's been some end
how in the last few days thatapparently Scoot had a very good workout with

(04:03):
Charlotte. There's also the trade possibilities. The Pelicans and Zion have come up
a few times, and I feellike if Charlotte goes Brandon Miller at two,
the odds are well. I guessit doesn't matter at that point what
Portland does, because one of yourtop tier, Scoot or Almond, would
be on the board. In ascenario where Scoot goes to two, there's

(04:26):
at least a possibility that Portland orsomeone they trade that pick at three two
could conceivably take Amen. And thenyou go down a tier. So before
we go into why, you seeAlmond and a different tier than Paulo does.
I'll let you guys hash out thatdiscussion. How much would you panic
if you're the Rockets and you startseeing the board slip to where Brandon Miller

(04:49):
slides to you or I guess youcould still take the Oddler Thompson twin or
Cam Whitmore in that scenario, howaggressive would you potentially be willing to move
up in order to get Scooter Amenand maintain your position to get one of
those two point cards. So I'llstart from the back. I would do
anything to get one of those two. It's a big reason why I'm okay

(05:11):
with us picking four, honestly,is that NBA teams have a very long
history of overvaluing college production. Rightthey see the best player in college basketball,
and that is like the best playerin the draft, you know,
barring somebody else. And so nomatter what you think of Miller, I
do think that like he has amassive boost because he played in college ball.

(05:34):
Even if Scoop played tougher competition,played real men, you know,
played in the G League, whichis way tougher than the SEC where you
play South Carolina, Mississippi State,and all that A bunch of times a
year and you know, fake teamsand whatever. But you know, I'd
much prefer to move up. Idon't think like if you can't get either

(05:55):
of them, I would just desperatelybe begging Portland's like, hey, what
do you want? I will doever to to move up to there.
And I would also be fine movingback if they're unwilling to move off with
those picks, which I get because, like as I said, I view
those two as the two best andif you don't want to move off with
them, you can't really do anythingto change their minds. If you can

(06:15):
move back with Orlando get to sixand eleven, you know, I have
other guys in that range, youknow, between Ozarkam and Miller that I'd
be fine with taking right at sixand eleven, And you know that I
think are better fits with the currentroster as well. And once you're outside
of that top three, I dothink you have to consider fit at least
as a developmental you know point,like you don't like like you said,

(06:38):
you don't you don't think about fittingwith like oh the future, You're like,
oh, hardened and all this andwhatever, but you think about how
they fit with Jalen Green and shengon, and does that optimize their development?
Right? Because if you're it's likea bead and Simmons like, yes,
they were both great players, buthow much better would Simmons have been if

(06:59):
you went to a team where hecould actually be the five man offensively or
the point guard and he played asthe big who could pick and roll right,
Like, how is he where heis now? If he's in that
situation? I don't think he is, you know, barring back injury.
But you know that's a short windedway of saying I would not stay it,
or a long winded way of sayingI would not stay at four.
Yeah. So the best way isto summarize it is if the board stays

(07:25):
the way most of the mocks haveit now, which is Scoot and Brandon
and some order at two and three, then you're more than happy to just
stand pat at four where most ofthe mocks have you getting what in your
eyes is a top tier guy inaman Thompson or top tier in this scenario
where we're taking one by out ofplay, because let's be real, he's
his own tier. He may aswell be his own draft. We're talking

(07:46):
about the twenty twenty three NBA Draft, it really starts at pick two,
and so if the board stays asit is, you're content to stay it
four, as opposed to if somehowScoot and Amen end up at two and
three in some order, then youeither need to talk about moving up into
the top three so you can getone of those guys, or if you
can't, then that's the time thatyou maybe have that call with Orlando and

(08:07):
say, yeah, let's move back, because there's not that big of a
delta between Brandon, cam and sar. Yeah, that's a perfect way to
put it. If Miller did Faullto Ford, that would be you know.
So it's so unexpected at this pointthat I wonder what seems to be
going you at for because they justdidn't expect to be able to trade with
the with the team in like inthe unique position that Houston's had, because

(08:30):
if they wanted to trade with Portlandfor Miller, people to have to have,
you know, a star tight player. God knows what Charlotte wants at
this point. I know the Rocketshave you know, very specific needs and
those are not another lengthy forward,so we have plenty of those. I
wonder how I wonder how that wouldgo. That being said, let's focus
on on the main price here.You know, when I thought, well,

(08:54):
I want to bring we want totalk about draft. I want to
bring in someone, I thought,well, I want to you know,
we've had Nathan, Nathan's great,we had Maths and Matson break. I
want someone that really loves him.And Thompson because I'm not the only one
I have skilled in a pilots stoleat number two. But it's looking more
and more likely. I mean,maybe not in the last couple of days,

(09:15):
because it's been it's been like it'sbeen chaos for two days. But
beforehand, you can we were kindof settling into you know, Okay,
we've got to cope a little bit. You know, we've got to get
behind him and Thompson. He can'tbe that bad. So let's bring in
a guy that assolutly loves him,that knows everything about him, and let's
see what's so attractive to him.So I guess I'll start the very generic

(09:37):
question. He'll be a man Thompsonin a you know, ninety percent outcome,
not the assolute ceiling, but youknow, a pretty good him panning
out, what does it look like, what kind of play is he?
Well, that's in my opinion,the ninetieth percentile outcome is a top twenty
fifteen player. Honestly, just heis the best athlete in the NBA right

(10:00):
now and he hasn't even touched theNBA. He is a an otherworldly athlete
with great feel for the game.And I just don't think that guys like
that really fail. You know,there aren't really that many guys like that
in general. But I don't thinkthat the shot at the ninetieth percentile outcome
is anything better than like thirty fourpercent. But I don't think it has

(10:22):
to be. I think it justhas to be like respectable. I think
he's the best rim pressure player inthe NBA other than like Fox in Shay,
And even then you can argue he'sbetter than Fox and Shay because his
first step is better, and he'sfaster, and he's quicker off the ground.
You know, he's not as craftyas those guys, but you don't
need to be super duper crafty whenyou are literally unguardable right right because your

(10:48):
burst is so good and your feelin the pick and roll is so good.
You know, he's a great playmakeron the offensive end. I think
at the ninetieth percentile outcome, he'sa top five ten playmaker. Can make
every reading pick and roll, canmake every kick out, can make every
look ahead and transition, you know. And then I mean the other thing
that I think is kind of what'sforgotten about him is that I think there

(11:11):
is a very high chance that he'san all defensive player, Like genuinely and
at his ninetieth percentile outcome, he'sprobably one of the ten fifteen best defenders
in the NBA. His versatility,his athleticism. He can guard basically one
through four at the NBA level,like right now. He can play different

(11:33):
roles as a defender, weak siderim protector, wing helper, you know,
just pure stopper. You know.He if he came to the Rockets,
he would be the best shot blockeron the team. I like,
firmly believe that his instincts are betterand he's bigger than kJ and I don't
know who else. It's maybe Tariwho comes close. Patar isn't really played
in that role anymore because he's moreof like the wing habit creator. I

(11:58):
just at his ninetieth percentile outcome.He's one of the best players in the
NBA, full stop. And I'll, you know, just to you know,
just to I think I think itis ninety five hundred percentile outcomes.
I think he's the best player inthe world. Maybe subway meet, but
like guys with that level of feelathleticism, two way ability, they just

(12:22):
don't exist outside of Lebron. AndI do think that there's there are very
rare worlds where he ends up hittingto that level. Yeah, I actually
agree with you. I think thatthe vision of what a high end outcome
for for him and Thompson looks likeI think it's really appealing. Right now.
You're we're talking about a guy thathas all the tools to be a

(12:43):
primary on ball defender if need be, we're talking about a guy that can
play off ball. I think hewould be even better off ball, you
know, early on in his careeras the athleticism, has the instincts to
be you know, to play likea wing, to play you know,
kind of like Roco and be ableto you know, pick pick incus his
times to impact on the defensive end. Off the ball, he does gamble
a little bit, but it's okayI'll segue this into I want to talk

(13:07):
about defense book. Beforehand, let'stalk about the thing that everybody brings up,
which is the competition level and whathe played the ad overs ear last,
I actually think and I early on, and I probably get flamed for
this, but early on I thoughtthat he was just playing poor competition and
then he should have shined bright orhe should have shined brighter than than he

(13:28):
did. But then I went backand I watched the more and more of
the games, and then I wentback and I looked at the stats of
his teammates, right, and I'mlooking at it and I'm like, I'm
watching a play and I'm like,okay, he gets this kick out to
the corner. But there was thiskick out to you know, the wing

(13:48):
that was wide opened the entire play, but he didn't do it. And
so then I would go and seethe number of the guy because they don't
put the letters on the players twosecond and see them, and I go
and see this guy came too,and he's spacing out onto the perimeter and
I'm like, okay, so heknows he can do that's right and past
the ball, and this happens waymore often than you think. And I'm
looking at it and it's like,we use the competition level to take away

(14:11):
from what Amen has been able todo as and me as someone who's all
a name, And I actually thinkthat a competitional level kind of hurt him
as well, because yes, thatall the team's bad, but you're his
team is also bad and to dominatethe competition and win in the end.
But what it end up causing isfor someone that's trying to scout. First

(14:35):
of all, most of these gamesare blowouts, so it's hard to you
know, motor, and it's hardto judge his ability to to stay consistence
throughout the game because most of thegames are blows it. I men played
on the worst Space team than Ihave ever watched as a scout. Like
there was not a single shooter onthat roster. The closest thing was Eli
Ellis, and he was not ashooter. He was a I would take

(14:58):
a shot or you know, hisshots did not fall at a good rate,
He did not hit open shots.He just chucked everything that came into
his hands and made every shot waymore difficult than it needed to be.
And I think that that is thebig thing that's missed when people are like
a competition level, this competition levelthat he put up like that, I
want to see. I want toI should have pulled up his playoff numbers,

(15:20):
but they were pretty nice, youknow, only the average, like
what sixteen six and six for theregular season, but I think bump that
up to like seventeen seven and ninein the playoffs. Don't don't quote me
on that, but I mean hewas dominant. He played with his brother,
who put up the exact same stats. He was not the only good
player on this team. He facilitated. There were other guys that needed touches.

(15:43):
You know, he wasn't like hewasn't like a Gig Jackson where he's
the only guy who's any anything closeto resembling a college like a you know,
an NBA player on the team.You know, he had to share
the ball. There were other guyswho needed usage, and uh, you
know, I think talent wise,Ote is a lot better than people get
credit for. It's a lot betterthan than Like the teams are better at

(16:03):
than most college teams. It's justthe style of place sucks. Like the
style play is almost useless for evaluation, but you still have to watch instincts
figure out all that kind of stuff, and I think it's I think you
can do that. You just haveto spend a lot more time, and
then you would really want watching garbagebasketball. And then on the offensive end
as well, well, he's limitedin the types of passes that he can

(16:27):
make. And even even still Iagree with what he said that Alier on
his playmaking is insane. He's ableto make every pass in the book.
As someone who's watched KPT at pointguard throughout the last two years, if
there's something that I've learned is thatit's not easy for a lead guard to
actually know, you know, allof the options that he has on a
given play, all of the typesof passes, the whip browns, the

(16:49):
dump off passes, the kickoffs tothe gardener, how you do kick out
to the wing. You know,after watching KPT for two years, I
start to grow more appreciation too.It's not just seeing that the guy is
dead and passing him the ball,is knowing that the guy is going to
be open and positioning your body inorder to be able to, you know,
hit the pass in stride in time. You know at you know,

(17:12):
at the sitter's pocket and make itquick, because how many passes have we
seen out of this team, youknow, so far during this rebuild,
where the ball makes its way there, but it takes so long, like
the balls kind of floated over tothe to the to the player, or
it's all the way at his feetand it just lose all the attemted there.
But I think most of all,it's also that his type of game,

(17:36):
which is really downhill, not reallymuch of a mid range game,
not really much of a three pointof a three point shot game, hurts
him even more in a situation likethat because he's the only threat, and
his game is a lead at offensively, is a leade at two things play
making it in rim pressure, whichare kind of the easiest things to combat,
you know, in a poor basketballsetting, because if you can psych

(17:57):
off all of the all of theremaining offensive players, you can call og
the lane. And there's not reallythat much he can do, and he
still managed to make to make aa lot happen within that situation. I
want to jump onto something else,which is and people disagree with me with
me a lot on Twitter about this. I actually believe that early on in

(18:19):
his career. The more you cansimplify the game for him as far as
creating the advantage and capitalizing on it, the better it will be for him
And for me, that is gettinga spacing center and playing five out because
kinda like James Hard and Russell WestbrookWinda were doing it in Houston, he's
able to create the advantage by himself. And so what you want to do

(18:41):
is, after he creates the adventthat you wanted to make it as simple
as possible, he can make thereads. So he's you know, he
is a passage. Making him apassat that doesn't solve anything. So if
he beats his men and you havesomeone drawing the big out of the perimeter,
he's going to get away up andif the big helps, he's more
than capable of making the correct breadand hitting the open leader. To me,
this is just simplifying it the most, and it's a way of not

(19:02):
really running into the problems with hisshooting in the lack of a of a
of a midrange game. To me, this way you're running into those the
least out of any other any othercircumstance. I think you disagree with that.
So alfraing the ilframe the question aswhy do you if you do,
and how do you think he fitswith albren Senglund, which is to me

(19:25):
the biggest question because I really don'tsee how he protects early on to be
an offball player. So I thinkit starts with I know that we said
we're going to talk philosophy later,but I it's very key to this question,
and to me, I think shootingis probably the most overrated skill in

(19:45):
basketball. That makes me sound likea bit of an idiot, but like
when you just hear it on itsface, but I like, I obviously
shooting is valuable. You obviously needshooting, And I'm not claiming that.
I just think that there is suchlike especially for a ball handler and for
a big, which are the twopositions where you don't need to shoot.

(20:06):
Right, everybody's so obsessed with ohyour point guard has to shoot this,
Oh you're big. If your pointguard can't shoot, has to be able
to space and space to the cornerand do all this stuff. But I
think with light movement principles, we'veseen this with the Warriors. The Warriors
have won championships with you know,three shooters who all three shooters who play
on the floor at the time,you know, and two guys who will

(20:26):
not take a three point shot orwill only take a wide open one,
right, I think it just requiresa little bit of creativity, you know,
in motion, off ball movement,and even like a pick and roll
centered offense. I think that especiallywith someone like Ahman, who is an
elite pick and roll playmaker, arguablythe best in the class. Right in

(20:48):
the pick and roll is pace isincredible. He can make every read,
he can make every drop off.You know, He's so quick that he
will draw too. He will engagethe big and then make the correct read.
He can make the skip, hecan make you know everything right.
But I think if you put himin the pick and roll with a skilled
pick and roll big like alpern Scheunwho can make kickouts, who can you

(21:11):
know post turn it into a postup, who is a really good screener
right like that is one of myfavorite skills of Schoons is just how good
he is at taking his man outof the play. If you put elite
screener, an elite roller with anelite pick and roll ball handler with great
pace with great like who is thebest athlete on the planet. I think
good things are gonna happen. Youput three shooters around that, I think

(21:34):
that's good offense because if you justkeep the big and the guard defender moving
or take one of them out ofthe play, you don't need five or
four out right. You can justkeep guys in motion, and you know,
it's easier to draw out. AndI'm much more of a visual person,
but I tried my best to explainit. I also think that Amen

(21:56):
as an off ball player, isan elite cutter. He's not as good
as are He's not as good aslike a Cam went More as a cutter,
but he isn't really good. Histiming is really good, his recognition
is great, and he's a lobthreat from the back door. So if
you're running like a post like ahub shengoon, and you have Amen bring
the ball up, dump it intohim in the high post and then he

(22:18):
can you know, they can runa two man game. They can run
a dho. I think that it'simpossible to sag on the best athlete in
the NBA and a guy who canget to the rim from anywhere on the
floor. Right Like, it's twoguys who if you give them a runway
or any amount of space they aregetting to the rim, and so you
have to guard up, right.It's it's the same issue that you know

(22:42):
people like you can't sag on Yannis, right or he's just going to find
a way to get in there andlike get up a shot because he's so
much more athletic, and if yougive him a runway, you're screwed unless
you are perfectly executing a defense.And I think Amends a better playmaker than
Yannis at this stage in his career, and arguably that he is right now,

(23:03):
right Like, if you build awall against Amend, he's going to
make the right read like I thinkit's it's a lot simpler and a lot
more complicated, you know, isa kind of stupid way of putting it.
With Amand's lack of shooting and Hindu'slack of shooting as well, one
of the things that really interests meabout Amand he seems to check a lot

(23:25):
of character boxes, both on andoff the floor. Everyone that's really worked
with him seems to rave about hiswork ethic. He has no injury red
flags. He lives and breathes basketball, and so there's so many ways in
which that can bring positive results.Certainly you don't have to worry about him
off the floor, it sounds like. But on the floor he's someone that

(23:45):
isn't going to I suppose check out. You mentioned that he's an elite cutter,
So if he's off the ball,even if he's not a shooter,
he's not gonna be one of thoseguys that says, well, it's not
my possession. And of course heeventually projects into being a point guard,
but I'm talking about early in hiscareer when he may have to divvy up

(24:06):
the on ball responsibilities a bit more, at least until he's established. So
the fact that he has the workethic and a sense of humility to you
know, relentlessly cut off the ball. That's not a skill set that every
super athletic point guard has. Andso to me, I know, you
can never say for sure until youget these guys in the NBA, but

(24:29):
it sounds like he's someone that's reallydedicated to his craft and the kind of
guy that you can trust to give, you know, peak effort, which
is a huge part of maximizing thatathleticism. Right. Yeah, No,
I mean you probably read the quotetoday or yesterday about how he and his
brother people are like worried that they'relike sleeping in the gym. Ye know

(24:49):
what I was thinking about. Yeah, it's it's like these guys are stickos.
Right, You're right in the bestpossible way, and at the end
of the day, think just liketo make it as simple as possible.
Amen, I'm not going to betagainst the best athlete in the world,
who is one of the most highfield players I've ever watched, who is

(25:12):
also one of the hardest working andhighest motor players I've ever watched. Like,
if you're going to bet against thatguy, I think ninety nine out
of one hundred times you're gonna bewrong. Right, I think that's my
my simplest reasoning here with Amen.Okay, so so reteresting a little bit

(25:33):
of what you've said about about himand Shingoon, Right, you mentioned the
Warriors often, and that's a greatpoint. They basically worked with just three
shooters and two you know, forthe most of the time defensive bas in
Raymond and call it looney, callit whoever you want. The thing there's
two things about that, right,which is, first of all, they
had you know, the two ofthe greatest shooters of all time, which

(25:56):
means that you know, if you'regiving if you if you if you go
under the screens, and or ifyou are not just as tight as you
can possibly be, they are goingto shoot over you and they are going
to punish that, which makes itharder to you know, just give space,
to just give space to the otherguys. So to me, it's
the versatility of having just Korean andplay as just basket that can shoot in

(26:21):
any circumstance from anywhere in any typeof movement. And then another question is
do you think so this kind ofis a little bit of philosophic question as
well, which is that reduces theflexibility that you have of running different types
of things. What do your valuemore on a team someone that or a
team that has a lot of differentweapons, and so it's really hard to

(26:44):
prepare for them because they can goto all the different types of systems,
or a team that has one systemthat's basically unstoppable. To what's the best
team build like team playbook building,strikely to have something that's so good that
people know what's coming. And that'swhat you're aiming for with Amen and you
just can't stop it. Or it'sbetter to have, you know, flexibility

(27:07):
in the ways that you play,so that you know you can you can
if something's out working, you cango to something else. Okay, So
I'll start with the Warriors stuff andthen I'll transition over that second question.
But I think, like, what'sso genius about the Warriors offense is that
the principles still work even if youdon't have a step in a clay right,
Like it's they use their bigs asthe screener, because then the big

(27:32):
isn't playing at the level and you'recompletely relying on steps defender to fight through
a screen, right, You're you'rebasically turning it into a free two on
one with you know, a greatshooter and I And the other part of
that is that I really do buyJalen and Jabari as elite shooters, right.
I think Jabari is going to beone of the best shooters in the

(27:52):
planet at seven foot tall, andI think Jalen is like an elite shot
creator. He's six six and thegrab the threat of Oh, I can
get to the rim whenever I want. I can score in the mid range.
I can score from three like beingthat level of three level score on
and off the ball also really unlockson it. Right, So I think

(28:14):
there's a lot of like different factorsthat go into really liking how I'm and
fits on this roster in general.But to answer your second question, I'm
gonna I'm gonna cheap out. I'mgonna say that for stars, I want
you to be. I want youto dominate in one way and create easy

(28:36):
buckets. And just like if youcan't create an easy bucket, then you're
probably not a star. Is myphilosophy. On the offensive end and for
role players and on the defensive end, I want as many options as possible.
Right, So, I want theJabari Smiths of the world as my
role players. I want you tobe able to stretch out. I want
you to be able to attack closeouts. I want to have, you know,

(28:57):
different types of wings, different looksfrom the wings I want Tari.
I want a Kobe Bufkin to spoil, you know, some later talk.
I want a bunch of different looksfrom my role players who can fit next
to that one dominant offensive style ofamend and Jalen on and off ball play,

(29:18):
playing off of Shangoon, you know, doing all this different stuff,
you know, heavy pick and rolland then and the beauty is that Amend's
defensive versatility means that he fits intoboth of those molds right, So he
fits in as the star I wantsomebody to be dominant and just impose their
will and get a ton of easybuckets. But then defensively, he can

(29:40):
play any position you want him to. If you have somebody who if you
don't have a point of attack defenderin a certain lineup, Amen can do
that. If you don't have aweak side rim protector with a different lineup,
Amen can do that. You know, he can play everything in between,
And honestly, I think there's likeworlds where you're running him as your
pseudo five, as screener and aslike a switch center, just like hold

(30:03):
your own and we're going to gasthe offense and just try crazy shit.
So I really like Amen is thebest of both worlds in my opinion when
it comes to the team building.And I don't think he's as limiting as
he's made out to be, becauseversatility is a lot more than just shooting

(30:25):
interesting that makes sense, I thinkI think he made a really good point
of spot as the guys that areon the roster right now. I think
one scaling in kabari, you know, get their feet under them as far
as shooting my astyaln more because ofselecting money just because I mean, who
knows. I'm completely cluel as asthe Lowland wrong because he's an eighteen year
old boy. That's plays into it. That plays into it. So I

(30:48):
actually because I actually think those twowhen they actually you know, start being
it, doesn't get their feet underthem and get older. I think they
have shouts are actually very versabile.I think I think Calen's you know,
comes a little bit he is cottingbetter at it, but it comes a
little bit from the chest, butit's still a really quick to get off
shot and has you know, heis able to get enough power from it
to shoot from really deep brains.And I think they you know, as

(31:10):
a seven food shooter is also reallyversatile and he's really good at or he
protects be really good at squading hisshoulders and even shooting a foot movement.
I think he'll be able to doit eventually. Um So I think that's
a really good point. I lovedyour point. Or the amen thombs some
you know, being the verst theone defense, which is the possible that
you like but then being that thator having the potential to be that,

(31:34):
but that I'm stoppable right offensively,that you can just thrown the same thing
over and over and the other thingsthat they're going to have to completely flick
come into it, and he hasthe playmaking too to punish it or they're
not going to be able to stopit. I wanted to turn one more
thing that you said about Amen offball and how you said you think shooting
is a little bit overrated and youthink or not rather than that you talked

(31:57):
about, you know when running pickand roll order go handoffs, that you
can't be ostag all the way backfrom Amm because he has the athleticism to
puns hue and just go over it. And I could agree with that,
and it is the same thing happenswith Yannis. You know, he's just
going to pull those people over.And even without the best duck in the
world, even though Yannis's length hereand so he'll get done more often and
he'll be close up to the he'llbe it's so easier for him to finish.

(32:22):
The problem becomes and it's a problemfor Yannis as well. He could
be more them than he already is. The problem becomes free throw unique because
you're going to draw a lot offiles. And I think, I think
most of the time, when you'rein a position where you're running head first
into the defense with the head ofsteam, you're gonna, you know,
especially in today's NBA, you're goingto draw a lot of fouls. And
Amen is like, what's sixty sixsixty seven percent free which is sixty nine

(32:47):
with the with the playoffs. Okay, that's okay, sixty nimes is fact,
it's almost fine, but you know, okay, maybe I take it
back, but still that's something thatI'm not too sure well right, because
it would be it would feel alot better if it told me, oh,
he can't shoot, but he's goingto use his size and his and

(33:07):
his you know, rim pressure toget to the line a lot, and
when once he gets to the line, he's gonna put in shoot that way,
it really scares me. A situationwhere you know, maybe he gets
in his own head or maybe heisn't a knock down freetro shooter anyway,
where they just keep fouling him andkind of like what happened with the Anna
sid puts in his career. Thetime he won the NBA Championship was the

(33:29):
time when he shot I think thebest free throws wise in the playoffs.
And so it's it's kind of scaryto rely so much on your downhill pressure
when you're not that great of afree throw shoot. And that's one of
the beauties. You kill him ifthat will tell him smaller and not as
powerful of an athlete, which iscrazy to say because as a credible athlete,
you can trust him that if hedraws the foul and needle on in
this career, but we've seen asas last year progressed, a big deal

(33:53):
is he draws a foul, buthe can actually knock down the freedros the
seventeen nine percent freet shooter or somethingof the sort. So it's gonna scare
you with a man, the factthat you know he isn't the great free
when he does get those looks,does that do could you see an outcome
where that's a problem. So no, I think like if he was a

(34:16):
fifty five percent free throw shooter,then yes I would, I would agree
with you and I would understand whereyou were coming from the problem is that
he's at almost seventy and with hiswork ethic and I mean, he has
improved as a shooter. I don'thave the numbers in front of me because
I yeah, it's impossible to findote numbers unless you really know where to

(34:37):
look. But even when you dolook, they're not very reliable. But
the best estimate I've seen is thathe's at sixty nine, and I think
he's improved over the last few years, and I don't see any reason why
that shouldn't continue to improve. Ialso think that the confident stuff, I
think that guys like Ben Simmons havereally skewed our our perception of that Ben

(35:02):
Simmons is the outlier. He isnot the norm, right, his mentality
has always been in question, allthis different stuff. There are so many
things that individually should not have happenedthat went wrong in Ben Simmons's career that
caused this to happen, and youngness. Eventually, he took so many free

(35:22):
throws that he got over it,right, And when you're that good at
getting to the line, I thinkeventually you take enough free throws where you
get over it, especially when youhave that mentality where you really care and
you are dedicated to your craft andyou will not stop, right. I
just especially with good shooting coaches thatyou know we have here now, I
don't see any reason why you shouldn'tget up to seventy five percent from the

(35:45):
free throw line. And at thatpoint, if you are hitting three fourths
of your of your free throws andyou're taking you know, eight to nine
a game, and you're like,that's six easy points, right, I
think even at sixty nine percent,I mean, what's that end points per
possession? Like one point two?Yeah, yeah, something like that.

(36:07):
So it's and it's still a goodoutcome for a possession. It's more of
a in certain situations. Teams mightwant to live with that, but it's
it mostly comes from these mentality issues. And I think Amen and also really
have that stuff down. I sawthe entry. I mean, they grew
up in Oakland, then they're nowarriors. Fancif if that doesn't a test
for their mentality, I don't knowwhat you're I don't know what you want

(36:28):
to test for their mentality. Butspeaking of their their work ethic right,
and something that I brought up onTwitter and know other people said that sometimes
these guys just don't have the rightpacking or don't have the right keep the
right coaches making decisions or helping themmake decisions on this regard. But you
know, if these guys are alwaysin the gym, how come that the

(36:50):
shooting is still so much of anissue. But while it's been an issue
for a while now, and theyknow, you know, this is what
stops them. I think if heif they are shooting study six percent from
three, they may be in theconversation with women, that's how high the
upside is. And so knowing thatthat's what may limit them, and they're
as hard workers as they are,how come that's still an issue? So

(37:14):
two things. One I think cominginto Ote, these were two of the
rawst players on the entire planet.Like for their age, like as far
as eighteen year old basketball players whoare gunning to be lottery picks, they
were so insanely raw. Basically allthey did was dunk the ball and leak
out and transition and all that stuff. You know, they really have developed

(37:37):
a lot at OTE and the shothas improved, it just hasn't gotten to
the level where it's passable. Becausefor their entire life. They never had
to shoot. Right, if you'resixteen playing AAU, what is more efficient
to shoot your twenty seven percent jumpshot or to go get the automatic dunk?
Right? And I think that's partof it. And then yet the

(38:00):
second part is, like I said, I think they have improved. It's
just that the level that they've comefrom and the level they've gotten to is
like they started as some of theworst, like most raw players on the
planet, and have gotten to Okay, they're still pretty bad, but there's
like you see the hope there,right, you kind of see like they've
gotten better. So you're saying it'sit's their age, and then being twenty

(38:24):
is actually you know and and stillbeing you know, qualified as high upside
prospects. It's mostly because they startedfrom way further back then most eighteen year
olds would be, and not becauseyou know, they because they worked on
flaws and they've been struggling, includedtwo guys through them. But that's mostly
what you're saying, right, Yes, it's it's it's that, and it's

(38:45):
the fact that they have the athletictools to actually like reach star and outcomes.
Right, I think every single starin the NBA is some kind of
an elite athlete, right, andthey you know, they are raw,
But it's a lot easy to developsomeone into a star when they're actually able
to become a star and you're notlike projecting something falsely onto them. I

(39:07):
don't I don't know if that fullymakes sense, but I hope you're getting
my point. So bottom line,if you're looking at Almon and you're looking
at Scoot, and I know forplaymaking reasons, that's why you have them
at the top of that turify,what is it that distinguishes Almen? Is
it the additional length and thus thedefensive versatility that he has that Scoot doesn't.

(39:29):
Since I know you're somewhat of anoutlier and having Almen above Scoot,
is it the length and the defensiveimpact that maybe gives Amen a slight edge?
Just explain the difference there. Yeah, So I think, like the
simple, like the really the verymainstream way to look at it is is
Scoots like the higher floor amends thehigher ceiling, right, And I think

(39:49):
that's true. But I also thinkjust elite defensive versatility, the six seven
length automatic rim pressure or elite playmakerwith high feel is still a very good
floor, right, Like, Ithink their floors are closer than people think,
even if Scoots is still higher becauseof the shot. And you know,

(40:10):
but I think that you know,the six seventh the size and the
gap on defense, so amand isis so much better than Scoot on defense,
and Scoot is like slightly better inmy mind than Amen on offense.
Right. And it's that plus amendsjust slightly higher ceiling that really have him,

(40:31):
you know, slightly above Scoot eventhough they are back to back.
If you took if we took Scootat two, we traded up to two
and took Scoot. I'm not complainingat all, you know, I think
they're both incredible, but I doslightly prefer Almon. So just a quick
yes or no question moving forward rightthen and with ben Sell of them as

(40:53):
the shooting coach, and I thinkthey brought on one more shooting coat.
I can remembers them off the topof my head. It's camp Rodge is
from the Clippers, by the way, Okay, perfect, thank you man.
Do you think current campot is ita scratch and built from the ground
up or you think the current clipthat something that they can work with towards
something that may resemble it right nowwith a lot of fixes. Yeah,

(41:15):
yeah, I think the jump SHOT'sfixable. I think there are obvious issues,
and if you fix those issues,it can get to passable. I
think the touch is solid, andI really I buy it getting to passable
at some point. All Right,So I want to circle back to something
you said a few minutes ago talkingabout their ages. Both of the Thompson

(41:36):
twins are at twenty, and that'sa source of concern for some people.
But as I see it, Ithink it's almost too simplistic the focus that
a lot of the draft community hason ages, because so much of it
is circumstantial. I'll use an example. It's very near and dear to me.
Kobe Brown is a prospect that whileI don't think he makes sense for

(41:57):
the Rockets, I'm very high onhim. I think I've helped get Madison
more high on him, as wellas maybe even a late first run pick.
He gets a lot of skepticism becausehe's twenty three years old. But
what people who don't follow University ofMissouri basketball seem to know is that the
first four years that Kobe was there, the sets they ran on offense under

(42:19):
Conso Martin were archaic. There wasvery little spacing, there was very little
structure. And this year, whichwas his fifth at Missoo, Dennis Gates
playing a five out offense that hadideal spacing, played with pace and gave
him the space to operate. Itreally allowed him to do a lot of
things for the first time. Sure, there were some shooting improvements, and

(42:40):
you know, the big question withKobe is a forty five percent shooting from
three real. But even if it'snot to that extent, you know,
certainly he worked on it, andthere's things he did himself, but a
lot of it too, is justcircumstantial. And so even though he's older,
I do think that a lot ofhis growth would have been shown at
a younger age if he hadn't beenplaying for coach who, in fairness kinds
of Martin, a very good defensivecoach, but offensively a bit behind the

(43:04):
times in regards to some of hissets. And the reason I bring that
up is there's a lot of talkwhen we look at the top of the
first round and the guys at therockets range, certainly the Thompson twins who
are twenty versus camp Whitmore, who'sjust eighteen. There's this assumption that the
guys who are younger inherently have moreupside. My personal opinion is that that's
not necessarily the case because you haveto take into account some of the unique

(43:29):
circumstances of each situation. Like youwere just outlining with the Thompsons. So
when you go into this process asa scout, how much deference do you
give to just the age number bythese guys and how much of it is
a combination of age with the particularcircumstances with a player's career that may either
I guess, accelerate their development orperhaps have it lagged by a couple of

(43:52):
years relative to the norm. Soage for me is really tough because originally,
when I started out a few yearsago, I was very into you
have to be super young to besuper upside and all this stuff, And
the more I've done it, Ithink the main way that age is a
factor for me is if you're reallyyoung and really good. Right, if

(44:13):
you are eighteen and you're dominating,then you're probably going to dominate at twenty
and twenty one and up until you'reyou know your twenties. It's it's the
Franz Wagner Moses Moody thing where thosetwo are super young, some of the
best players in college basketball and playon the wing, so they're probably going
to be good. I'm not like, to me, I have Cam below

(44:36):
Azar, even though Ozar is older, because Ozar is better, right,
and he's a better athlete, andhe's you know, higher, feels he's
just better at basketball right now.And I definitely started leaning more towards just
is this guy good at basketball andnot just like, like the example I
would use from this year is isGigi Jackson. Gigi Jackson is currently a

(45:00):
very good basketball player in any way, but because he's the youngest player in
the class, people just like givehim a nod. It's fine, he
has the flashes, it's whatever.But if Gigi was like like solidly efficient
and scoring well on like on ateam in the SEC, Like if he

(45:20):
was like, you know, upat like fifty three percent trough shooting or
something on that garbage South Carolina team, then I'd be like, oh,
now the age really means something becausethere's so much more time for him to
just get better, right, Likewe tend to overthink guys who are just
young and good, and we tendto understink guys who are young and bad.
So I hope that answers your question. That's a great way of putting

(45:46):
it. So let's move a littlebit into into scouting principles and some of
the stuff that you look for inyour when you're doing your draft boards,
because I mean, I saw thislast year, last year or someone who
was really high on Dariyon rightfully,so I was. I was as well.
I mean, but now I'm lookingat your board for this year,
right and I'm trying to find somethingin common or or like a thread that

(46:10):
rooms in the rooms through all thesepar respects, that that is in common,
and I just I can't. Sothere's probably a general you know,
surface level, I mean not reallysurface bable. We can get into it
if you want, But what areyou looking for in prospects and what makes
you know, an example, whatmakes a guy like Sensible or I mean

(46:31):
Nick Smith, not almost because he'sa special case, but Sensible or case
in walls to be as high asas they are under board. So to
me, it's outside of the topthree. I guess I'm just gunning for
somebody who I buy being super eliteat something and good enough at everything else.

(46:53):
Nick Smith is the outlier there.I have him at four, but
a lot of that is because ofhis high school film. Right. He
showed so much more in high school. He dealt with all the injuries this
year that give me a lot ofreason to like, hand wave the numbers,
handwave the you know, the percentages, the assist percent whatever, and

(47:13):
the flashes were still there to whereI still buy the high school tape is
real. But with someone like BryceSensiball, I think I buy him honestly
for a lot of the same reasonspeople really buy a Brandon Miller. Right.
It's like, he can really shoot, he can really self create.
He can and those are such easyskills to build off of. And I

(47:34):
think at the top of the draft, I'm looking for, can you do
something at an elite level? BryceSensiball can shoot and score at an elite
level. Nick Smith has the besttouch in the class. Cassan Wallis is
an elite on and off ball defender. Aunt Black is an elite playmaker and
an elite defender, and you know, does a lot of things at are
really high level. You know,even like Amen and Azar and went More

(48:00):
are elite athletes. And then otherthan that, I'm looking for guys who,
like I said, are younger andalready produce. So that's like Kobe
Buffkin, Grady Dick, Leonard Miller, even a Brandon Podziemski, just guys
who produce at a really high levelat a really young age. And those
are going to be the like thatand elite skills plus you know, pretty

(48:23):
good at everything else is what I'mgoing to bet on at the top of
the draft. I don't have likeone thorough line like you said, I
try to evaluate every single player onan individual basis. Right if I was
just like, hey, this ismy philosophy and this is how I'm going
to do my board, it wouldlook very different. And what I do

(48:44):
think you bonded out a thread throughoutall those guys, though I can agree.
I mean, there are some exceptionswhy, Nick Smith, but for
the most part, when you focuson one, you know, seeing at
your trade, all of these guysdid produce really well, and all of
them are young, and I couldI could, you know, I could
follow your your thought process across allthese names and like, yeah, these

(49:05):
guys produced. These guys are young, and especially they produced at you know
what their projective elite skill is,so I can totally see where you're coming
from them. So from that perspective, then what makes a guy like the
Rik whitehad, who produced as ashooter not be higher on the report considering
he's really young? So Drek,I really like, like I have him

(49:27):
at sixteen. I know some people. For some people that's lower, some
people that's higher. I really dolike the high school film. I just
he has really big worries for me, and it's the handle. The handle
is the big one. He cannotdribble his handle. He will bobble it
off his feet, he will ericordinate off his inner thigh, he will

(49:50):
do everything in between, and hejust cannot control it. It's been an
issue since he was a sophomore inhigh school and since I've watched him since
then. Right Like, it isnot an issue that he's fixed, and
I really like him, right Like, I still really buy him as a
shooter, as like kind of ashot creator whenever he doesn't have to dribble
very much, and as a defender. But I really like players who can

(50:13):
dribble. I think it's really hardto find guys who can dribble an NBA
level, And that's part of thereason why I have someone like Patsiemski ahead
a Brandon Miller and ahead of Drek, because I don't think Miller and Whitehead's
handles are really at an NBA level, right, And I don't think handle
is super improvable other than like smallfixes here and there. Right, Yep,

(50:35):
that makes a lot of sense.So then let's so I said not
that high. He is sixteenth onyour board, so it's still high compared
to consense that I have him alittle bit higher, but I was trying
to compare high by your philosophy.If I was following your philosophy, ildn
have him even higher. So anotherguy that's really good at one thing and
was fairly putive in college with kindof lacks on the eighth apartment from the

(50:58):
correct that you were that you werenaming is Jodan Hawks. So why is
the thirty four? So Jordan Hawkinsmisses on the other key part, which
is like passable at everything else orlike okay to good at everything else.
Jordan Hawkins has no other skill thanshooting. Right, He's very good at
shooting, Like I'd probably have himin my top five to six as a

(51:22):
shooter. He's tall, he cancome off of motion, He's the best
motion shooter in the draft for sure. But you can't dribble, he can't
pass. He's a really bad defender. He doesn't project to like get bigger
and become a good defender. Hisinstincts aren't there. He just doesn't do
anything else at a super high level, right And and he's a little bit

(51:45):
older. And like I said,shooting without other skills is kind of overrated
and ends up leading to like Coreykiss Burt's being taken in the lottery,
And I like Hawkins one than Iliked kiss Burt and the guy who went
to the Celtics whose name I can'tremember now and that's embarrassing, but yeah,

(52:06):
yeah, Nie Smith, just likeguys like that. I think just
being able to shoot ends up leadingto more guys like that being taken.
And I'm not the biggest fans ofthose kinds of picks, and Hawkins kind
of fits that to a t forme. Okay, so one of my
favorite guys, and I know youvery highly disagree on it. What's so
bad about Vera Quively the second thatmakes him the thirtieth. He has two

(52:31):
skills, and he's very good atthose two things. He's a great rotational
shot blocker, and he's a greatlob finisher. His production was very bad,
right, Like his his rate statsare fine, but his total totality
stuff is really really bad. Andhis touch around the rim as a finisher

(52:55):
is bottom tier. He is themost massive person on the court every single
time he plays, and he isthe worst layup finisher on the court every
single time he plays. And that'sthat's really worrying to me for a big
man. Like how many, likeeven in his prime, how many of
his finishes of Clint Capella's finishes weredunks as compared to layups, right,

(53:15):
I would say most of Clint's layups, even next to Harden. The most
Clint's finishes next to Harden were layups. Right. No matter how good you
are at dunking the ball, you'restill gonna have to lay it up a
lot. It's just a fact oflife. And I don't think Lively is
good at that. I also thinka lot of like elite rim runners also
do other stuff at lower levels,and then kind of scale back to just

(53:38):
do the rim running stuff. Andlike I was watching some some Clint Capella
youth film. A friend of mineposted it on the timeline. You should
check it out. I think Iretweeted it. He is like shooting passing
lanes, dribbling in the full court, hitting turnaround mid ranges like these these

(53:59):
elite rim running show flashes about thethings that at lower levels. Wait,
Clinca, no way, Yeah,yeah. The youth Clint film is crazy.
Man, dude has the worst thatI've ever seen now. I mean,
it's just like like it's it's reallyeasy, like if you're really dominant
in like a like a role likethat, Like it's really easy to be

(54:22):
like, oh, it's just dunkingand rim protecting. It's like there's so
many niche little things that go intothat that you have to be good at.
And I don't think Liveway is goodat any of them other than just
rotational shot blocking and being big andcatching lobs and those are useful, and
I think he'll be in the NBAfor a long time because of them.
He's massive, he gets off thefloor super quickly. But if that's all

(54:45):
you do, you're just kind ofa second round pick to me, and
that's that's how I have him himranked. I mean, he's he's solid,
he's fine. I just don't lovehim in the top lodder like like
some people on the subjects of biggs. And I'm not meaning this to be
critical, just want to put abalanced picture out there. Tarry Easton was

(55:05):
a big success story for you lastyear. But amongst the big man,
I know you were low on WalkerKessler, who it's still early in his
career, but he ended up beingan All Rookie first team guy. What
do you take out of I guesshis early success. Is there something that
you underestimated? I know that's partof you know I mentioned it now because
we're talking about, you know,scouting principles. Is there something about Kessler

(55:30):
as a big I know his archetypeis not Derek Lively, but is there
something about him that maybe you undervaluedthat now you're putting into your analysis of
this year's class. So Walker Kessleris So I do something very specific with
my boards every year, and Ithink big boards are a lot more nuanced

(55:52):
than a lot of people like pretendlike some people are, Like if you
don't hit on the exact order ofhow valuable each of these guys is by
Boorp, then your board is afailure. That's like, that's just not
how it works, right, Likeit's it's kind of a snapshot of how
I view basketball at a certain pointin time. Right And at that point
in time, Kessler was as aprospect, a block chasing, blob finishing

(56:17):
big who pretended to be a stretchbig. And people looked at the defensive
rebound percentage and the block percentage andthat was like, wow, this guy
is going to be a stud.And it's like, well, when you
watch the film, he gives uptons of easy layups because he block chases,
he can't scream, he doesn't reallyroll very well. He's just massive.

(56:38):
So I mean, if if you'rejust like putting pure value on Kessler,
like sure he is a top twenty, like like top five right now,
by just pure value. If youjust look at the stats, he
is a top five player from hisdraft class. Because stats don't paint the
full picture, right, Like,he played a tiny role. You know,

(57:00):
he was just a drop big whojust caught lobs and rebounded the ball
and was just massive, And it'sa lot easier to just be massive than
it is to have skill. Hewas a He was a much better player
than Jabari Smith and Jade and Ivythis year. But if you said,
oh, I would rather have WalkerKessler long term than Jade and Ivy and

(57:21):
Jabari Smith, you would be anidiot, right like that. That's just
kind of how I look at it. And I've been flamed because I did
have him way too low by justvalue, right, But that's like I
said, that's just not exactly howmy board is. Last year, I
was very particular about if all youdo is shoot, or all you do

(57:44):
is be big, then I don'tvalue you. So I moved those guys
even lower than I probably should haveon my board, and I've adjusted a
bit this year. I think someonelike Lively, like last year, I
would have had him even lower,and it's like, yeah, that's why
I was thinking about it. Yeah, like there is value in being big,
there is value in just shooting,and you can say I don't value

(58:07):
that as much without saying, oh, I don't value this at all,
right, And I think I overcorrectedfor that last year and this year I'm
trying to be more holistic about it, and like in a way where I
don't have to explain this every singletime somebody asks me about Walker Kessler,
because it's like, yes, itmakes sense to me, but people aren't
going to take the time to ask, and they're just gonna think I'm an

(58:29):
idiot because i'd Walker Kessler in theeighties. Yeah, right, Like it's
it's it's a very personal thing thatI add in that low and it makes
a very specific point about my philosophy. And this year, I think I've
cut that out to just be moreaccessible and understandable. So one thing that
I think is definitely admirable about yourapproach. You're not afraid to stick your

(58:50):
neck out. Even when we're talkingearlier about the guys to top of the
draft, to have Almand basically numbertwo, right behind Wemby, and you
mentioned, you know, if hegets three point stroke up to just mid
thirties, maybe even on par withWimby, that elite of a prospect.
If you can get the shooting toa passable level. And Brandon Miller,
of course far lower than the consensusyou're talking about. Derek Liveley is someone

(59:10):
that you have far lower than theconsensus. One of the big problems I
feel like in modern draft analysis isgroup think. There's so much fear amongst
a lot of people to be onan island that it leads to a lot
of analysis basically mirroring what's already outthere. And in the case of NBA

(59:31):
teams, look, say what youwill, but these guys are doing their
own analysis. They're being paid fulltime salaries to dedicate their lives to that,
and the scouting boards aren't going toreflect. You're going to have some
pretty big misses sometimes because those guysare actually doing their own independent analysis,
which is why, in an idealworld, the scouting world would do that
as well. It's just I thinkthere's so much of a temptation to be

(59:53):
risk averse and avoid the criticism fora scenario like you just laid out where
you know you have Kessler in theeighties on your board that he ends up
being an All Rookie first team guyin year one. There's a lot of
people that just won't take that risk, and while it avoids any sort of
major personal liability for them, atthe same time, it doesn't really paint

(01:00:14):
a truly comprehensive picture as to justhow fluid the process is. And what
teams are considering, because I thinkwith teams, there's the one thing I
hear back when I check in withpeople from the Rockets and around the league
is that there is so much moreuncertainty than the mainstream mocks would lead you

(01:00:35):
to believe. The mainstream mocks haveit to where there's a certain amount of
guys that makes sense for certain picks, and people that are actually involved in
this process say, you would notbelieve how many guys we are seriously considering
at a given point, especially onceyou get past the top five or ten.
So I think one thing about you, Certainly, like any draft analysts,
you have your hits, do youhave your misses, But it seems

(01:00:55):
pretty clear like you make a conscientiouseffort to make sure that you're doing your
own analysis and that you're not factoringin too much what you're seeing from mocks
elsewhere and trying to conform to them. What is the secret to doing that
and is that hopefully something that we'regoing to see more of amongst the draft

(01:01:15):
community moving forward. Okay, soI think I have a three part answer
for you here. First part iskind of a little secret. Is a
lot of NBA teams are way morefactor are factor in consensus like the mainstream
mocks the bad drafting teams take thatstuff into consideration. The three best drafting

(01:01:39):
teams in the NBA are the threeteams that completely ignore it. And that's
the Rockets, the Heat, andthe Grizzlies. Right, No matter what
you want to say, I thinkthose are the three best drafting teams in
the league. And those are theteams that I have heard just do not
listen to that kind of stuff andare not influenced by it at all.

(01:02:00):
Right, The second part is tome, like, I genuinely don't consume
very much draft content out of justwatching like film. I think that's like
part of it is as I've grownas an evaluator, I read people,

(01:02:21):
I know stuff, but I don'tlike I don't listen to other draft podcasts
because I tend to just find myselfjust disagreeing with them and being like,
well, actually I don't think that'sright, or oh this makes sense,
and why would I listen to theexact same thought that I have in my
head? Right? The only stuffI really consume at this point is ESPN's

(01:02:45):
stuff because it's more intel based,right, And I think ESPN, for
all their flaws, has pretty goodintel, and I like, I like
having intel. I don't factor itinto my own evaluation, but I really
think that's that's the secret. Thesecret is just do your own work and
don't be concerned at all with consensus. Because once you start to like even

(01:03:09):
like reading other boards like structures,this in your mind as oh, this
is the starting point, and thenoh, I have Brandon Miller lower,
so I move him down instead ofjust oh, I like I build my
board is called my twenty twenty threerunning board, because I build it as
I go, right, as Ideep dive all these guys, I just

(01:03:30):
slot them in where I think theygo. And then I continue to slot
guys in in between each other insteadof like, oh, here's this ESPN
board, and I'll have Wembit onescoot at two and then oh, you
know, I don't like I'm inthat much, so I'll move him down
to five and that'll move all theseother guys up right. And the third
part I think is that the guyswho think like this, at least historically,

(01:03:52):
seem to have been picked up byNBA teams like the Rockets. Like
the Rockets, scouting department is madeup of a lot of the old draft
Twitter people who very much so who'snot like this right and think individually and
or don't really pay that much attentionto consensus. And I think a lot

(01:04:13):
of people who do really listen toconsensus and intel end up being more of
media people. And that's like oneisn't better than the other. It just
tends to be how it is becauseif you listen more to other voices,
you know, NBA teams can getthat from ESPN. Why would they hire
you. They want somebody who thinksdifferently, you know, they want an
edge in the draft. They don'twant the same old, same old fired

(01:04:38):
by that, I'm going to movepots in skin to my top twelve.
I mean, I'm welcome kind ofjoking in kind of not because I remember
and and I've been throw out alot of a lot of boards this year.
But I remember before anybody had thesky for schround, I had the
sky like twenty seven, and Iwanted to put them like tops sixteen,

(01:05:00):
but then nobody had them top sixteen, and I'm like, well, is
is there something I'm not seeing?Is it? The athleticism is athleticism that
limiting. This guy's so good ateverything else, and I will and I
and I and I remember Dylan Williams, and I thought, how much he
reminds me of Dylan Williams, youknow, best athletic, but just the
style of play, just the reallyuncontrol. It's being a really good all

(01:05:24):
around player. And that made meput them first round. But I didn't
have the cuts to prew them allthe way what I wanted to put them,
just because of people are going toI don't know, I really agree
with what you said inside that we'removing kind of past draft section of the
rockets of their revealed. I mean, at least I hope we are,
because that that would be a bad, bad sign if if we were.

(01:05:46):
I think, I think the beautyof the draft is that the middle ground
is not the Daryl Morrie way whereyou make no selections, and it's not
the so far rebuild way where youonly make selections. You know. I
think it's the Grizzlies way, whereyou make good selections every year and then
you cycle in cheap role players andyou trade who doesn't work, and you

(01:06:08):
know, I think you want touse the draft, but you don't want
to overuse it or under use it. I think Grizzlies do it so weirdly.
Yeah, they do. It's kindof annoying, like, oh,
let's treat the Anthony Melton for DavidRoddy and it's like a kind of just
kept Melton, you know, He'slike, It's really good, especially because
once you once you want a goodteam and you're scouting for a good team

(01:06:28):
at least, what I would dois I would be looking for guys that
can really fill a role, andthey go for a lot of like auto
left field guys that are good ata lot of little things like Roddy for
example, like Tillman for example,just guys that are that I wouldn't call
them specialists, but they go afterthem and they play a role for them,
which is my fair places. TheGrizzlies they find a way to make

(01:06:50):
Kyle Anderson a really useful player,and I think of most systems in the
NBA would struggle to make him becauseit's so star based, struggles to make
him stealsful as he was one ofthe Grizzlies. Uh. But yeah,
their their philosophy is so weird thatthey always stem in the jazz both of
those I think that, but Ithink that's doesn't work for them. But

(01:07:12):
because draft guy that I've never heardof and they end up always being musful.
I wonder who's you know, Iwonder what the Grizzlies scouting team consists
of. Is it drafty as ifold draft Twitter guys as well? I
think it is. As far asI know, I think it's at least
a few draft Twitter guys or theywere some of the first to like hop
on too, like, oh,maybe we should actually read what draft Twitter

(01:07:34):
is saying. Right, The secretto the Jazz actually is that they're the
most analytically based front office in youknow, at least as far as the
draft, and I think as faras like actual NBA goes. Like,
there's the story Udoka has a bookiefrom a few years ago who they their
analytics department had at number two ontheir boards because his block and rebound rates

(01:07:58):
were out of this world. Andit's like, well, if you actually
watched a second of film, yourealize he's too slow to play in the
NBA, Like what are you like? You you're missing completely the forest before?
Are we talking about the Jazz andUdoka as a bookie? Oh,
oh, I remember who that guyis. Oh, I do remember that
guy. They took him at liketwenty one or twenty six or something,

(01:08:19):
and they could have gotten him atlike forty, but they can't remember.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, itwas really it was overall well yeah,
but they could have Bane. Ithink like that was the ban they could
I recall correctly they did. Theytook him Wait what is he trying to
Oh, they took twenty seventh.I mean it's still it's a little bit

(01:08:41):
lord, but I remember what lookingat mocks back then, because this is
the year for for reference for thelisteners, this is the year where the
Rockets traded Givington and goth pick sixteen, like a week before the draft,
and so everybody was working to thescouting war for the first time in like
god knows how many years. Andthen the draft came and they too let
pick away for a future pick,and it was like really disappointed. Well,

(01:09:03):
this is this is my very early, very early on, you know,
started talking to rookie prospects because itwas useful still the terro mari era.
And I remember from this draft Ilove Gylan Smith because I thought he
was going to be Capella with thechampion and that was eighteen with Mo Bamba.
So I had bombas three that yearand that was my first year.

(01:09:26):
Like scouting it was. It wasnot a good year. But and I
remember not being that high on onKadon McDaniels, who's I mean been filling
it with the Timberwols because I thoughthe was a typical length guy that came
to anything else. So let's nottalk about my past draft analysis from my
first year, because well that thatisn't great. I did. I did
call Halliburton, I loved them,but other than that, it was pretty

(01:09:49):
terrible. Let's let's get into thisdraft again and talk about pick twenty for
the Rockets in case they make it. We've talked about a lot of the
guys that might be able in thatrate that you'll light, But what about
specifically for the Rockets because I don'tthink they go BPA here at this point.
But who'd you like for us?So that is a very open question.

(01:10:14):
I love a lot of guys twentyI think is is the make or
break pick for Is Stone good atdrafting? In my opinion, I like,
I really like Tari I think nomatter what you think of Schangun.
He was the best value at sixteenright, like you were not gonna get
Yeah, mm, Schangun right nowhas more value than try Murphy. Uh.

(01:10:40):
Like, I maybe we should havetaken Trey Murphy for like a few
years down the line, but Ithink Shangoon at least looks to be a
star. Trey Murphy is a shooter. But uh, you know, Tari
loved the Tari pick, But thenyou look at Jacob, look at tie
Tie us Van's questionable. I thinktwenty is going to really seal the deal.
Here on the stone is actually agood drafter, you know. I

(01:11:04):
think we could see this is likethe bottom end of Nick Smith's range,
honestly because people hate him for somereason because of the injuries and stuff.
I could see this. I wouldlove to see Leonard Miller if he falls
to this range. I think he'sa star bet hiding in plain sight.
My dream pick personally selfishly is KobeBuffkin out of out of the University of

(01:11:29):
Michigan. I've been getting bullied abit because he's a guard, but I
think he's an elite off ball shooterand player who I would just love to
see on this Rocket's roster, youknow, like, wow, a complimentary
wing who's super young, can shoot, can drive, and can really defend.
We haven't had one of those inthe years. I really love Buffkin.

(01:11:53):
I would also love to see BrandonPodziemski. I think he could really
reach his full potential as a connectoror a point guard here. There's a
few more. But who do youguys like here at this twin deck.
I've come around on the shooting,and that's just based on the roster as
it is. It's tough to sayone hundred percent how this roster is going

(01:12:15):
to be constructed a week from now. But Maxwell Lewis is someone that I've
come around on. I know you'rea bit lower on him. But Jordan
Hawkins, I think in a worldwhere you're looking pretty deep and you're gonna
sign a number of free agents,a high floor shooter is something that has
a lot of appeal to me,especially because they can fit in a lot

(01:12:38):
of different constructs. Part of it, too, it's difficult for me to
have like a guy here since Idon't know who the Rockets are truly targeting
in free agency. I think theteam does, and so they can sort
of slide in with that, it'dbe easier for me to narrow in on,
you know, a certain need ifI knew, okay, these are
the positions that are going to befilled in free agency as opposed to now.

(01:13:00):
It's sort of like, well,I don't know how, and of
course not that you're expecting a rookieat twenty to play a lot in your
one anyway, but just in termsof how they fit over the next two
or three years, I think oneof the shooters can potentially have a lot
of utility. We can throw abuffkin into the mix there as well.
I'm coming around on him for sure. Jet Howard, that's Paulo's boy.
Certainly he fits that criteria as well. Just someone that can sort of plug

(01:13:24):
and play and a lot of differentscenarios given the instability of this roster.
Paulo, who did you want toadd that I haven't already mentioned. I
mean, I think if thirty quietheads it there, I think you've got
to take him. As he said, I really like Jeth Howard the fan
and me once Marcus Sassar, butthen those are and I really really like
the Zimski and I think he comesin. I think he wows everyone in

(01:13:47):
training camp, and I think heplays minutes they were because I think he's
ready, and I think that Ithink that type of player has very little
used going to the D League andSpania you're there, Which does it make
sense to lean on younger and moreimproven like Gg Jackson, who I see
that you don't really like that much? But do you lean more on that

(01:14:10):
because you think that they're not becauseyou have the time to do so,
and you think that they're not goingto play, so they might as well
spend a you in the the leagueand you're not that hurt by it.
Do you take that in consideration orjust just you know, to get the
best guy and eventually you'll have thespace for him to play, even if
he has to spend one or twoyears in the T League. Well,
it comes back to my philosophy.I think, like I would rather take

(01:14:32):
Kobe Buffkin than Gigi Jackson a hundredtimes out of a hundred, right because
it's Buffkin is like only a yearolder, but infinitely better at basketball.
Right Like he is better, Iwould argue, I would say he's better
at every single thing on the basketballfloor that Gig is. Right now,

(01:14:54):
and I don't think one year,but basketball is going to change that for
Gigi, right. And I wouldrather like, oh, Kobe Buffkin,
go look way too good in theG League for a year than oh,
Gig, let's see if you're evenan NBA player in a few years.
Right. I think it's just it'smore justifiable to have somebody who's too good

(01:15:15):
playing in the G League than toblow a top twenty pick on a guy
who might not be a player.I think the best way to really grow
an NBA contender is just to hiton picks year over year over year.
The way you do that is bydrafting good young players. So let me
ask you about the tiers, becausewe talked at the beginning of the pot

(01:15:36):
about the top of the draft andthe way I think the Rockets have it,
which is five guys after wimb infairly close proximity. So you could
stay right in the middle of itwhere you are for if you're comfortable with
how the board is falling, youcould also try to move up or perhaps
move down a bit and get someassets with that. One of the things
that as is at play with picktwenty, assuming that they don't package that

(01:15:59):
with four or some other asset,or maybe you know, if they're worried
about not having that roster spots,I suppose you could always try to kick
the can down the road and tradefor a future pick. We see a
couple of teams do that every year, assuming that they make a second first
round pick. One option that's beenfloated is moving up because there's definitely some
access on the roster as it stands. You've got your first round guys from

(01:16:20):
a couple of years ago, Usbung, Garuba, Josh Christopher. You can
also look at the forward spots whereJabari Smith Junior and Chari Eason are a
big part of your future, whichyou also have j Shaun Tate and kJ
Martin and our podcasts last night withMichael Scotto, we talked about some Jay
Shaun hypotheticals in terms of moving himbecause there's a bit of overlap at those
positions and there's a very clear incentiveto perhaps clear some additional cap room and

(01:16:45):
move into the upper sixties to nearlyseventy million dollars in cap space if you
have Tate off the roster and he'sthe kind of guys Michael Scotto pointed out
that's very plug and play. Alot of contenders should have interest in him,
So there might be some possibilities tomove up from twenty to I don't
know, somewhere in the mid teens. I suppose if you take on some
higher salary. There's been some interestingproposals floated about Dallas as high as ten,

(01:17:06):
because that's a very win now franchise. How big of a tear drop
is there between I would say theten to fifteen range and where the rockets
are at twenty And how significant wouldyou look into trade up scenarios given where
the rockets are and given how yourboard is currently constructed. It really depends

(01:17:30):
on who's there. I mean,there's a world where Nick Smith or Bryce
Sensible falls all the way to twenty. And in that world, why would
you trade up? Right? Like, I have those two guys tears ahead
of the guys who you would tradeup to get? I think it also
matters like who is who is yourguy? Right? Like? Even if
like I have Leonard Miller or GradyDick is a good example, I have

(01:17:54):
Grady Dick a tier below Smith,Sensible, Wallace in Aunt Black. But
if if you really buy the fitand you really buy him being able to
come in day one and help.Yeah, I'd trade up from twenty too
if he falls to fifteen or likefourteen, if he falls to that range,
I'd give up assets to move upfor Dick. If you think the
asset, if you think the fitis that good, right like it,

(01:18:16):
even if oh, you know,I'd rather just sit and wait for sensible.
You can't do everything in a vacuum, right, Like, Yes,
in a vacuum, I prefer NickSmith and Sensiba. But in real life,
on the ground graded Dick is abetter fit, will contribute early,
and it's going to be a reallygood long player for a long time.
And if you really buy that andyou want to trade up to get that

(01:18:41):
guy, then do it, youknow, don't just wait around and wait
for whoever falls. Like we canbe you know, we can be a
little relaxed. Go out, getyour guy, be aggressive. Yeah,
so, well, we've been goinglong. I mean, we always go
long, so we should stop sayingwe're going long because it's just normal for
us. But I usually end witha more of a lighthearted question, right,

(01:19:06):
just get just get some laughs goingout, going out of the podcast,
and my question this time is howdo I tell Rockets fan one two
three that just because da should Knicksaverage twenty five and seven, including from
three, that doesn't mean that ScootHenderson having the stats that he had last
season means nothing because Nick's average godknows what in the KI League. How

(01:19:30):
do I so Progress fan one twothree on Twitter that you know that's bullshit?
I like that question because it's reallytough as a Rockets fan to not
be radicalized by the Dash Knicks travelingQueen je League experience. But I think

(01:19:50):
that the team context and the goalof the teams they were on was very
different. Right, Scoots team Scoothas to get minutes and get usage.
The Vets have to get minutes andget usage. Leonard Miller, City Sosoko,
all these different guys have to getminutes and play and get reps.
Right, Scoot is not the onlyguy out there. And Scoot also like

(01:20:13):
played with Jaden Hardy and marsham bowChamp and Dyson Daniels and all these different
guys last year and was still oneof the best players in the G League.
Right. Like, G league's statsand its style of play are basically
useless unless you're super super contextualizing them, and there's almost no way to super

(01:20:33):
contextualize points, rebounds and assist forgame right. The RGB Vipers played super
fast, and part of that isbecause that's the only way that Nicks is
feasible as a player, because hecan't play in the half court because he's
too slow. He's not fast enoughas a processor, and he can't shoot,
so he can't play in the halfcourt. But they got out in

(01:20:56):
transition, and he's really good atmaking the right read and keeping head up
and making the pass ahead. Butyou don't get nearly as many transition attempts
in the NBA. And so whenwhen he comes here and he can't play
in the half court, it's likewhat the G League is meaningless? It's
like, well, no, thesuper high pace and style of play in
the G League makes it not aperfect transition. There's no one to one

(01:21:20):
like, oh, this guy succeededin this league, so he will succeed
in the NBA. There's like reallyhigh like, oh, Luca really succeeded
in the EuroLeague, so there's areally high chancel succeed in the NBA.
But nothing is certain, right,so don't let don't let one one bad
apple spoil how good the G Leagueis, uh, you know, compared

(01:21:40):
to relative comp Don't don't let DasianKnix's fat butt spoil you. Hear you?
Hear that spot Nick once. Okay, I'm allowed to say these things
to him. So I hope DasianNix's family members are not listening. If
they are, God, well,they're in my image cross all the time.

(01:22:02):
Yeah, they can, they can. They can come find me,
they can come talk to me.I'll help them, y'all said it not
me? All right, well wewill. We'll finally bring this to a
close. By the way to defendourselves against the polo allegations, we actually
did have a thirty seven minute pod, which is probably a record low for
us, when we had Mike Scottofrom Hoops hypod the other night. But

(01:22:25):
to peel back to curtain, there'sa reason for that. I have an
unlimited Microsoft Team subscription, which ishow we typically record. Scotto, for
whatever reason, has had some troublewith teams in the past. So he
asked if we could do Zoom,which we were willing to. But the
thing is, if you don't havea subscription, zoom caps you at forty
minutes, so so that's Pelton backeven further. Not only were we on

(01:22:51):
a limited zoom call, we werewe are also recording three podcasts in the
same week, so we don't getthe excuse. So this is we're recording
a what was near two hours,this one is an hour and a half,
so we're recording four hours. Thisis basically a four hour podcast,
so we don't get to pull that. Yeah, it's gonna average more than

(01:23:11):
an hour for sure. So evenif one was sure, yeah, we
don't get credit for a short podcast. And it's basically part two of what
amounts to a busy three part week. Anyway, that's what you can expect
from us this offseason. We knowhow pivotal this is for the Rockets as
a franchise. Two more first roundpicks and then a very pivotal free agency
period with at least sixty million dollarsin salary cap room. It could be

(01:23:32):
even more than that if they movedJhn Tate or Kevin Porter Jr. So
many possibilities throwing the room exception whichis bigger than anybody's used too, about
eight million dollars a year as well, it's gonna be busy, so as
news breaks, we'll definitely react toit here on the logger line. Cooper,
thank you so much for taking thetime. I know on Twitter people
can follow you at Ali Underscore OopUnderscore Coop. Is there anything you're working

(01:23:54):
on as far as upside swings orthe chop shop that people should be looking
out for over this final week untilthe draft? Yeah, yeah, mainly
upside swings. Um, we arebasically releasing a pod every single day for
the next seven days. We've releasedpods the last three four days. At
this point, we have a Rocketsspecific episode if you want to listen to

(01:24:15):
us talk with James Piercy about theRockets draft in like very deep detail and
the hard and off season and morefrom a draft perspective. Right. Uh.
You know, my two co hostsare are not Rockets fans, but
they're you know, draft guys aswell. We talked about that and if
you want basically in depth breakdowns,you know, for free on our top

(01:24:39):
seventy ish players. I think it'llbe by but in the next sometime in
the next few days, you cancheck out our website. We have a
lot of stuff over there at upUpside swings dot com. That has been
my my, my brain child.It's been my labor of love over the
past month and a half or so. And we have a workout tracker.

(01:24:59):
We we have excellent written articles,we have our podcasts, we have big
boards scouting reports on all these guys, so that anything you need for the
draft you can check out our websiteand listen to HTx chop Shop if if
you want the rockets stuff. Ihaven't done as much stuff over there recently,
but once the drafts over, I'llbe over there doing a lot of

(01:25:20):
rocket stuff with my guys. Thanksagain for having me on y'all. This
was really, really fun. AbsolutelyI enjoyed this and I'm looking at upsideswings
dot com now. Yeah, y'allhave fantastic resources between the big boards,
scouting reports, lots of good content. Again, just check out upside swings
dot com and you can get thefull big board from Cooper along with the
other guys doing their work over atUpside Swings and of course listen to their

(01:25:43):
pods as well. With that,we'll finally bring this part three of a
three part week, if you will, to a close. Hopefully you guys
have enjoyed this, and we'll tryto be back next week with can't promise
three episodes, but we'll definitely beback with more since it's going to be
a very busy week, whether theRockets stay in the draft, whether they
trade out, there's going to bea lot to discuss, for better or

(01:26:05):
for worse, and we'll have youcovered right here at the logger line.
If you want more content before then, the best place to get it,
of course, is on Twitter.I'm on there at benju bos Palos on
there at Paulo Alves, NBA.Cooper's on there at Alley, Underscore Oop,
Underscore Coop and this show the loggerline is on there at the logger
line, and if you go tothe link tree that's in our Twitter bio,

(01:26:28):
that's where you can access certainly ourdistributors Apple, Google, Spotify,
subscribe to the show leaves positive ratingif you happened already, but also content
from our friends partners and sponsors CarbockBrewing, Sports Talk, seven ninety Rockets
Wire. You can access all oftheir content simply by going to the link
tree at the logger line. Showedthem some love and we would definitely appreciate
you for doing that, because wewant to thank them for regularly supporting this

(01:26:50):
program. With the plugs complete willbreak for Cooper and Polo. I'm Ben.
Thanks as always for listening, andplease come back soon for another new
episode off the AGray Line, HappyDraft Week fellis

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