Episode Transcript
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Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome toThe lagger Line, an exclusive podcast from
the home of the Rockets, SportsTalk seven ninety. The lagger Line.
It's proudly served to you by CarboxClutch City lagger It is good. Oh
yeah, Red Nation, get readyto get ready, Get ready. The
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lagger Line starts now. Welcome onboard. Welcome into a special NBA Draft Lottery
episode of the logger Line, asalways served to you courtesy of Clutch City,
logger of Carback Brewing. I'm yourhost, Ben Dubos, editor of
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USA Today's Rockets Wire, and acontributor to Sports Talk seven ninety, the
official flagship radio station of your HoustonRockets. This is going to be a
bit of an unconventional episode because weare literally recording this during the Draft lottery.
We're talking now about sixty five fifteenminutes or so before the actual drawing
gets under way, and you're goingto get live reaction from myself and Paolo
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Alves of course, our usual cohost and producer out of Portugal, to
whatever happens for the Rockets, andthe reason we're doing it this way.
Let's just be honest, it's morefun, it's more dramatic. We're gonna
have plenty of episodes in the weeksahead in which we dive deep into the
draft prospects and whoever the Rockets endup earning the right to draft after tonight,
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and of course they're going to gothrough the process start to combine this
week in Chicago gm rothfel Stone headcoach Emai Udoka, who of course will
be the on stage representative at thelottery tonight. We're going to have weeks
of analysis. The Rockets are goingto go through the process themselves as they
try and narrow it down. Well, unless the fourteen percent shot happens and
they actually get the right to draftVictor win Banyama, which would be a
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no brainer. But if they're notat one, then there's going to be
at least some decisions to be made. The Rockets can't fall out of the
top six, so if they're inthat two through six range, there's going
to be discussions to be had,and we'll have plenty of insight on that
in the weeks ahead. I've alreadystarted working on some great guests to help
us out with that, unless it'sVictor, in which case we'll just do
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some deep dives on Victor. It'llbe a bit simpler one last time ray
for Victor. Anyway, let's getstarted. We've got powala on your initial
thoughts a few minutes before the lotteryscale of one to ten. How nervous
are you? Listen? Man?But just before we start, I just
want to put the disclaimer out therethat none of my takes tonight our legal
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what's the term our legally binding?Well, first of all because I got
COVID right now keeps sitting nearly hard. And second because the anxieties through their
roof, like this is this istwenty twenty one draft levels of anxiety.
They're being said. It's good anxietybecause it's not the fear of losing something.
It's the kind of the potential withgive of like winning what would be
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the best the best prospect maybe everat the very least since Lebron James is.
It's I mean, we don't reallyneed to get into too many introductions,
but this is a seven foot fourguy that moves like a guard that
has handled that you know that nonenot your typical big man handles where you
can book the ball away. He'sdribbling is actually like so close, so
down close to the floor, he'slike his chest is nearly touching his knees
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while he's ribbling. It's it's insane. He can, you know he can.
He's a three level scorer. Hecan work both on ball and off
ball. He can. He canhave the defensive impact of a defensive player
of the year. And even thoughhe's not known for it, he has
some really good passing instincts and alot of it comes from the fact that
he just sees over everyone and inthe amount of times you go through his
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footage, in the amount of timesthat he's getting triple teamed, and you
know, he just holds the ballup in the air and there's nothing anybody
can do, and so it's easyto make the pass the way. It's
just if the Rockets get this guy, I don't think there's any comparison in
any sport to the magnitude of anevent like this one. If they do,
if they do get them, ifthey don't, I'm plenty happy with
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Scoot Henderson. But on the otherhand, I'm going to be, you
know, ecstatic with Victor. I'mgoing to be really happy with Scoot.
On the other hand, if weget three through six. I'm going to
be really disappointed because I made anappoint this year that I would not tone
down my feelings, that I wouldnot you know, set myself or that
I that I would not be carefulabout not setting myself up for disappointment.
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So I'm fully emotionally invested. Soyeah, it's it's gonna be either really
happy or really sad. Yeah,it's unfortunate that it's not twenty eighteen or
earlier, because if that were thecase, the Rockets with the number two
odds placement going in would have amuch better shot at getting Victor or Screwed
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or any of those top prospects.Of course, starting in twenty nineteen,
that's when the NBA flattened the lotteryodds to distancent of ice tanking. So
even team with maximum odds like theRockets, the Pistons, and the Spurs
only have a fourteen percent shot atthe top pick. Really, it wouldn't
be a surprise if anyone or almostanyone, I guess New Orleans who barely
missed the playoffs would be a bitof a shock, but other than that,
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it would not be that big ofa surprise if anyone were to get
Wemby, because at the end ofthe day, what's the huge difference between
a fourteen percent shot and eleven percentshot, a nine percent shot, a
seven percent chance, and so onand so forth. It's straordinarily unpredictable.
And I like what Jackson Gatlin saidabout the twenty seven percent shot. That's
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if you add in the probability fornumber one or number two for the Rockets,
that number twenty seven. It goesback to the O for twenty seven.
The last time the Rockets were inthe verge of a championship in twenty
eighteen, Game seven of the WesternConference Finals. Of course, the over
twenty seven held them back. Perhapsthis is the good twenty seven in which
the Rockets get the upper twenty sevenpercent of outcomes and get one of those
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top two picks. Time will tell, But yeah, I'm a little more
calm than two years ago because itfeels more like an opportunity. Certainly,
two years ago, Hey Cunningham andJalen green Evan Mobile as well, were
very good prospects. None of themwere Wemby. But because of the pick
swap in Oklahoma City that if youweren't in the top four and there was
a forty eight percent shot at that. Basically a coding flip. The fact
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that you could fall all the wayto number eighteen and get a tier a
prospect like Trey Man, that's justan enormous drop off, and it felt
like it could really set you backwith this. You're gonna get a good
prospect no matter what, be itVictor or Scoot. I'm in Thompson,
Jariss Walker, Brandon Miller. There'sall sorts of prospects. You can throw
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in Cam Whitmore into that three throughsix range as well. That would be
nice young pieces as you continue yourrebuild around Jalen Grange, Mary Smith Jr.
Allprin Shungoon, Tardy Easton, KevinPorter Junior. They're nice building blocks.
They could also be intriguing trade assetsbecause we know this is the last
year for a while the Rockets fullycontrol their own draft pick, so they
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have no reason to lose anymore.We've talked about that plenty in the past.
They're going to transition to winning.Yes, that could include a pursuit
of James harden More on that end, just a few moments before the lottery
gets started. But as we lookinto the twenty twenty three draft lottery,
which is the last one that theRockets fully control their pick. Yeah,
there's just so many options. Certainly, if you get Victor, that's going
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to feel like almost winning a championship. It would be a day like almost
no other. And I know eightysix percent chance it's not going to happen,
so I'm not counting on it yet. I'm hopeful you would be silly
not to. It feels to memore like an opportunity. It's not so
much a dagger if you don't getit, because again, those are pretty
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good prospects. There are viable tradeoptions as well. If you want to
pivot to a bit more suppose veteranfocus this offseason to put around the young
prospects you already have in place,that's an option as well. Any pick
in the top six should have tradevalue, so no matter what you're you're
not going to get a trade manout of this. You're going to get
a real asset, be it ablueship, young prospect or a trade.
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This is not a doomsday scenario.But if you get Victor, it's going
to feel like winning a title,at least in a lottery sense, and
So I was thinking about going intotonight if there's any good luck charm that
I wanted to bring, and whatI settled on. I'm wearing the Justin
Verlander Astro's jersey that I wore forGame six of the twenty twenty two World
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Series. Now we should point outthat while someone say, oh, Merlander's
a playoff choker, not necessarily throughfive innings of one run ball in Game
five, which the Rockets or theAstros, excuse me, one by just
one run, and that turned outto me the pitpol game, and it
led the Rockets or led the Astros, excuse me, God, you can
tell where my head is out rightnow. It led the Astros to the
championship. And this feels like amost important Houston sports event since that Game
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six. So I brought out theAstros Virlindew jersey that I wore when they
wanted all that night. PLO,do you have any good luck charms?
Have you brought anything out for thisspecial evening? I brought myself? Does
that count? Oh? Okay?I mean we've won the lottery every year
ever since I've been a fan,so that is worth noting. As we
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set up what's going to happen tonight. Another reason why it would be silly
to be too despondent if they don'tend up in the top four. They
have gotten very lucky the last twoyears with these flattened lottery odds, and
a lot of Rockets fans weren't usedto it, because of course, before
this cycle, the Rockets had notbeen in the lottery in basically a decade.
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It was all winning, all thetime in the James Harden era,
so it was a quick transition startingin twenty twenty one to this rebuild.
And to get the number two pickone year that was Jalen Green and the
number three pick next year that wasJabari Smith Junior, that's a top eleven
percent outcome. Because you get thenumber two pick, you only have a
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twenty seven percent shot. To geta top three pick, that's only a
forty percent shot, And then youdo the math and combine getting both of
those probabilities, that's top eleven percent. So if the Rockets don't have luck
on their side tonight, you can'tbe too despondent. You can't say the
NBA Draft lottery gods hate Houston becausethe reality is that the Rockets have already
been fairly lucky, and even ifthey land at number six tonight, all
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in all, it's a pretty damngood outcome when you considered the three lottery
years as a whole. With allthat said, you can't fall for the
it's due fallacy. Every drawing isnew, just as if you're flipping to
go in and it's heads one time, it's not any more likely to be
tails on the next one. Everyoneis new, and so this is a
monumental opportunity for the Rockets. It'snot devastating if they don't get Wimby or
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Scoot, but it is a heckof an opportunity. And hello, I'll
say, in leading off one area, I disagree with you a little bit.
So I do agree with you thatI have Scoot Henderson guard out of
the NBAH League ignite. I dohave him number two on my board.
However, there's been enough intel fromthe reports I've seen around the league,
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and also some conversations that I've hadthat I feel confident in saying that some
teams, I do not know ifthe Rockets are one of these, but
some teams do have either Brandon Millerout of Alabama or Am and Thompson on
the Overtime Elite program at number twoon their boards. So for me,
I am actually looking at the bigcut off as after four, because if
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you can get into those top four, then even if you're not at two,
there's a decent shot because Scoot isa point guard. What if a
team like Detroit that already has acouple of primary ball handlers and Jade and
Ivy and Kate Cunningham ends up attwo, they could conceivably trade down and
still get Brandon Miller or Aman Thompson, or who knows, maybe they just
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take Brandon Miller at two. Ibelieve that Athletics Detroit beat writer said today
and the article that he co wrotewith Kelly Echo of the Athletic Houston that
he believes the Pistons have Miller numbertwo on their board. To me,
the tear drop is after that topfour. Even if I see Scoot and
I know you do, as theclear number two, I think there are
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enough options with being in the topfour that if you can tell a team
that might be looking at Scoot attwo that hey, you can still get
Brandon Miller or Am and Thompson,you might have an opportunity to trade up
for Scoot if that's who you reallywant, or maybe we're wrong and these
teams that think that Brandon Miller orAm and Thompson are better, maybe they're
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right, And in which case,if the Rockets are at three or four
and get one of those guys,then maybe it's for the best. That's
not what I would do, butagain, I'm not a scout. There
are people that know way more aboutthis than me, and the same goes
for you. We're just giving ourbest guests as fans, media members,
bloggers, people that follow the Rockets. We are certainly not scouts for a
living, so it's possible that wecould be wrong to me or is the
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big cut off? Because I couldsee a team that's at two maybe trading
down a spot or two if theycould still get Miller or a'mond Thompson.
I think if they fall to fiveand you're looking at someone like Cherris Walker,
Cam Whitmore, the other Thompson twine, it gets a bit dicier in
terms of are they willing to dropthat far in the first round order?
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So I would say, certainly I'mgonna be nervous at picks five and six,
also seven at eight. If theSpurs are picked at seven or the
Hornets at eight, then you'll knowthe Rockets are going to be six,
because at that point it's clear thatteams outside of the top four going into
the lottery were drawn for those fourlottery picks. So if the Spurs are
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at seven the Hornets are at eight, then guess what we're going to know
before six is even pulled out thatthe Rockets are going to be at that
worst case scenario, which they havea twenty percent probability of being, which
is small but certainly nothing. It'sactually a more likely scenario they get six
than it is they get one.B Unfortunately, that's just the reality of
the NBA's new odds. But theother reason that I want to go through
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this exercise of just live in themoment reaction again the weeks ahead, and
we're going to talk a lot moreabout the Rockets specifically and how this pick
impacts them. This is a monumentalnight for the NBA as a whole,
because the team that gets victor,for the reasons Paulo was laying out,
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is getting a franchise changer. Thisis the best prospect since Lebron James in
the eyes of the scouts, thegms, the executives, the people that
do this for a living, andeven if he doesn't go to the Rockets,
it is monumentally important in terms ofteam building, your competition moving forward,
to understand the landscape. Does hego to the West or to the
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east? Is it a big marketteam or a small market team. Is
it someone that you're potentially going tobe in competition with, ie a regional
rival, someone like Dallas that youmight be going after the same types of
free agents in the future. There'sso many possibilities. By the way,
for me, Dallas would clearly bethe worst case scenario because they're in the
West, They're a big market teamjust like Houston, and if you give
them both Luca and Wimby Boy,that would be a formidable force for a
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very very long time. So I'mhoping anything but Dallas. Fortunately, they're
well back in the lottery. Ibelieve the ten spot going in, so
knock on wood hopefully that does nothappen. But the point is the context
of the league as a whole isimportant because on top of whatever prospect the
Rockets end up with, look whenyou're trying to build a championship team,
some of it just depends on timing. You look back to the twenty tens,
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the Rockets were the victim of awfultiming. They had these great teams
to James Harden, they never evenmade the NBA Finals because the Golden State
Warriors were in the West and atthe peak of the Rockets and the James
Harden era. That was the Warriorsat their best with Kevin Durant, and
they couldn't even get out of theWest the Rockets. That is, as
opposed to now, if the Rocketswere a few years later, the Rockets
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had that same twenty eighteen team.Right now, I think they're clearly better
than any team currently in the playoffs. I mean, you have teams that
were in the mid forties this yearin wins that looked like legitimate contenders.
In the case of the Lakers andthe Warriors, who they just beat.
It's just a different era, andso timing is part of it. You
also look at the twenty tens,the decade most recently completed. Lebron James
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had his team in the NBA Finalsfor eight straight years, in large part
because the Eastern Conference really sucked inthat time period, the first four from
eleven through twenty fourteen. Of coursehe was with the Heat, the last
four with the Cavaliers, but thatwas a period in which so many stars,
for various reasons, ended up goingto the Western Conference, and there
was so much parody. You hadteams like Indiana that basically had just one
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star in Paul George and he wasa late lottery pick. You had a
sixty win Atlanta team that basically didn'thave any stars one year, and so
the landscape was such that you haveteams come out of nowhere and it was
just easier to build a legitimate contender, and if you had a player evolve
into Ron James, then it wasalmost like you were guaranteed to be in
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the finals just because the competition simplywas not there. So on top of
whoever the Rockets get out of thelottery tonight and eventually the draft on June
twenty second, it's also about howthis shapes the league as a whole,
because guys like Victor and Scoot arepotential franchise changers, So beyond just do
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they go to the Rockets, it'salso where does their destination or how does
their destination end up influencing the pathto contention that the Rockets are trying to
put themselves on as their rebuild continuesto phase two, as we heard Raphael
Stone say earlier in the off season. So for all those reasons, we're
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going to do a lot more justbigger picture, raw emotion tonight, reacting
to the results as they come in. We're just a few minutes away now,
and we're going to save the deeperdive for Rockets specific whatever their pick
is. We'll do that in theweeks ahead before the lottery. One more
thing I want to get off ourchest before we transition fully to the draft
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or transition back fully to the draft. James Harden. That's the popular talking
point this week on Rockets Twitter.I am very well aware with the Sixers
losing in the playoffs, he's goingto enter free agency. He has a
player option, but of course he'sgoing to exercise it. He took a
discount last summer so the Sixers couldbring in PJ. Tucker, ingenual House
junior. It was always expected thatHarden would enter free agency, and at
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the time, it was thought thathe'd get a bigger deal from the Sixers.
He just took a temporary pay cutto help them add in a couple
more role players, and he couldget paid a bit more once he became
a free agent the next summer.But it also gives him the option to
explore other possibilities. And it's beenreported since Christmas at a reunion with the
Rockets, we know the ties hehas to Rockets in the city of Houston
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is a possibility. And with theSixers going out sad, as the kids
say in Game seven, blown outby the Celtics, that speculation has really
kicked in to overdrive this week.And with the Sixers going out, it
was such an odd series for Hardenbecause the only reason why the Sixers were
even in Game seven is because Hardenwas out of this world good. In
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Game one and Game four, hewas the singular reason they won those games,
and one of them, Joel Embidewas not even out there, and
then in Game four, Embide wasout there, but Harden was clearly their
best player. So I pushed backa little bit at this idea that,
oh, he's a choker when thelights are at their brightest, because no,
he was really brilliant and a coupleof those high stakes games when the
series was either tied or they weredown a game. This series, I
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would say that he's very inconsistent whenthe lights are at their brightest. That's
a fair characterization, but choking,I wouldn't go that far. I mean,
there was plenty of pressure in Gameone, in Game four, in
Game five, and he was very, very good in those settings. So
with all that said, I dounderstand that he was bad in Game seven
and to an extent in Game six, especially down the stretch when Philly had
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a lead and they let Boston comeback late. The body language was bad,
and that brings back some old scars, especially amongst the Rockets fans who
never saw hard and quite get overthe hump in the playoffs. And there's
been some pushback that the Rockets shouldjust avoid him altogether. He's going to
turn thirty four years old, andthat makes him older than the current young
whore as it is. And thenyou added some of the baggage with how
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he left Houston, the fact thathe's never been the best playoff performer.
Even if you give him the benefitof the doubt the way I do,
it's not like he's to the levelof Steph Curry, Lebron, James Kevin
Durant, his superstar piers of thisera, even if he's a tier below
them now due to some age relateddeclines. Look, it is a word
on his resume, but the onething I do want to say, and
if you follow me on Twitter,Ben du Bos, you already know this
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going in. Look, it wouldbe foolish to entirely rule out the possibility.
You have to remind yourself that theRockets won twenty two games or less
in each of the last three years. So even though they're heading into this
offseason with sixty million dollars in salarycap space, a lot of these guys
that people on Twitter seem to thinkmight come to the Rockets for more mid
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tier salaries might not be so midtier if you're signing with one of the
NBA's worst teams, because they typicallywant to win. There's almost always attacks
on every building team like the Rockets. In the case of James Harden,
there may actually be a discount.That's part of why the Rockets owe it
to themselves to explore. It's notjust that he's averaging more than twenty points
and ten assists, per game onstrong efficiency nearly thirty nine percent from three
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he led the league in assists.We know what he can do as a
playmaker to try and make the gameeasier for guys like Jalen Greene, Barry
s mc junior, all per inShongoon, get them in more competitive environments,
all sorts of things that can helptheir development. Beyond that, Since
the Rockets are not going to beat a point to win the championship the
next couple of years, and that'sanother reason why you shouldn't worry about the
disappointing playoff elimination game performances, whocares the next couple of years. The
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Rockets aren't trying to win a titleanyway, it would be foolish to earn
your nose up at a player who, because of his interests, maybe at
the complete opposite end of the extremeof most players. Instead of putting a
Rocket's tax on James Harden or JamesHarden putting a Rockets tax on his potential
contract, there may actually be aRockets discount. And at this stage of
the rebuild, when you're not tryingto win a title, Rathelstone needs to
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look at values. He's talked aboutthat plenty. I think this is a
big, big opportunity for the Rockets. When you look at a player of
that stature with his game, beingwilling to sign with a rebuilding team,
it's pretty rare. I am openminded to the idea that you shouldn't bring
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him in no matter what. Ifyou want to argue that four years the
max salary paying him fifty million dollarsa year until he's aged thirty seven.
If you want to argue that that'stoo much, that's fine. But I
think it's emotional and illogical to saythat, no matter the cost, you
don't want James Harden for a guyof that production. Most of the analytics
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models laugh follow had him in thetop fifteen top twenty player this season.
You should be open to it.It just depends on the cost. We
can quibble over exactly what that costis, how much money, how many
years we can do that in futureepisodes. But I think the people who
are just opposed to it no matterwhat, in my opinion, Powelow,
that's overly emotional. You have toat least be somewhat open to the possibility.
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Given where the Rockets are, andgiven that it's not like they're trying
to win a title anyway. Thisis all about a bridge. This is
all about a transition to the nextphase. Hopefully two or three years from
now, Guys like Jalen Jabari,whoever they draft tonight, are going to
be ready to take the next step. This is just about helping them in
that transition, in that developmental cycle. And in that context, if James
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Harden is willing to give you adiscount, which a lot of the reports
would indicate that he is, Ithink you'd be silly, and I think
it'd be quite frankly emotional and illogicalnot to consider it, to rule it
out entirely, right, Yeah,man, I just I think I think
there's a price. I think everybodyshould have a price at it. They're
willing to do it, it's justtoo too good of a fit with the
encourt needs. I think it's validif you don't want to give him more
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than three years or more than twoyears. I think it's valid if you
don't want to if you don't wantto get him, if can if Schood
Henderson is an option, I thinkthat there's a lot of valid arguments and
situations where people think it doesn't makesense. And we can and we can
argue and go back and forward onthat, but just if you're just outright
don't want him because he walked away, or because he's a playoff joker,
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or whatever you may want to say, that just doesn't make sense fors all,
because if we get to the playoffsand he chokes there, that's a
massive improvement versus what we're doing rightnow. And if you're buttered because he
left, I mean, look atit this way. If he if he
hadn't left, we would be startingour rebuild probably this year, and we'd
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have him instead of having three yearsof getting top picks, we'd be feeding
to to the thunder right away.So in a sense, it was a
little bit of a of a blessingin disguise. That being said, we
are one minute and half away.Do you have your feed ready? Yeah?
I do, But I should notethat while it technically starts at seven,
it's going to be well after thatwhen they actually start drawing the name,
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so we have a little bit moretime. But yeah, I've got
my feed ready. As far asclosing out the loop on Harden, look
the way I am going into thisfree agency period. There's no perfect player,
and the Rockets are not at apoint in their transition from rebuild to
contending to where it makes sense tosay, no matter what, give this
guy a blank check because he's thefinal piece to the puzzle. Now,
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all these guys have works, they'reconditional. With Harden, it's his age,
With Kyrie Irving, the other big, huge free agent available this summer,
it's all to off court concerns,and he's in his thirties as well.
With other guys are good players,but they're not clearly stars. None
of them are perfect, So it'sall conditional on what the contract is relative
to their value. And if aguy who most metrics see as a top
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fifteen, top twenty player at leastin the regular season, is one to
give you a nice deal the waymany of the reports indicate that James Harden
is, it would be silly torule it out just because you have harsh
feelings over the way he left,or because you're worried about playoff performance with
this team not even being close tothe playoffs as it is, those are
silly reasons. And to Paulo's pointabout the way Harden left, look,
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let's just be real hard. AsPaulo said, did the Rockets a favor?
I saw someone the other day whenthe Lebron leaving Cleveland coming back scenario
was brought up, not saying,hardeness Lebron James in terms of his ability
as a player, but it's Ithink emotionally a similar storyline. Lebron actually
did the Cavaliers worse. Someone wastrying to argue and my mentions that Lebron
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only left as a free agent,he didn't force a trade. Actually,
Harden, force in the trade wasbetter for the Rockets him just playing out
the contract and leaving in twenty twentytwo, and then all of a sudden,
the Rockets going straight to the bottomhaving only one lottery pick until the
rest of the trades or the restof the assets from the Rush trade come
due starting in twenty twenty four.That would have been terrible. Harden,
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the way it played out, didthe Rockets a favor, And who knows,
maybe he'll do him a favor again. The Rockets worked with him,
they got him to one of thedestinations of his choosing. They didn't make
it acrimonious. Less than two monthsafter the trade, Tilman for Tida announced
that they were going to retire asJersey one day. Maybe that makes Harden
even more likely to give the Rocketsa bit of a discount in these negotiations.
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That's all I would say is thatfor the Rockets, all of this
is relative to value. You arenot at a point your rebuild where you
say I've got to have this guyor I've got to avoid this guy.
It's all about what the value ofthe deal is and how it fits into
your long term puzzle, and notsaying I would one hundred percent do it
for Harden. There are some pointsthat I would walk away, but you
have to at least keep it openmind. The last thing I'll say about
(27:52):
Harden as we transition back to thelottery, because the picks are about to
start rolling in. I've seen somespeculation that the Rockets, if they get
or they feel they have hardened andthey get a pick that might put them
in position to get Scoot Henderson ormaybe even Aman Thompson, that they might
(28:12):
not do it because Hardon would bethe primary ball handler. I want to
say going into this, I donot think that is even remotely a consideration.
I think that's lazy aggregation, peopleputting together basically two and two.
Just a little tidbits. Oh,the Rockets are interested in James Harden.
You're hearing some talking round the league'sScoot Henderson might not be a lock at
(28:36):
number two. The Rockets in manyof these mock drafts are picking it too,
simply because that's their spot going intothe lottery. And oh, let's
just say the Rockets are going BrandonMiller because they feel they have James Harden.
That's supposition I can say confidently fromtalking to people within the Rockets.
They are not going to let athirty four year old James Harden dictate their
decision making, even if he iscoming, and that's not guarantee in my
(29:00):
opinion, but even if James Hardenis coming, I don't think his presence
is going to impact their thought processon an asset as important as a top
six pick in this draft. Whenyou're talking about someone that's nineteen or twenty
years old. This is someone whocould be a fixture for the next ten
to fifteen years of Houston Rockets basketball. If everything works out right with James
Harden. Even if he does comeback, you're talking two or three years
(29:22):
most likely as a bridge to yournext contender. This is an asset that
could actually be a foundational piece ofit. So I'm not going to tell
you one hundred percent that the Rocketswould take a point guard even though it
is in need. And I thinkthat's part of one of the reasons they
would look for James Harden as opposedto some of the mid tier guys.
We already have a pretty deep rotation. We've talked about that the past.
James Harden, you could just slideright in. You know, they need
a point guard. You can playKevin Porter Junior either at the wing and
(29:45):
or off the bench as a sixman, a backup combo guard. It
would be easy to drop Harden inas opposed to you sign a couple of
minutes your guys. But we've alsogott substract from your current rotation. It's
pretty easy to drop Harden in,and so you know, it's not quite
as easy to do if you bringit Harden with someone like Scoot Henderson.
But what I will say is thatthe Rockets are going to think long term
(30:06):
with this pick. Whether they makeit, whether they trade it, it's
going to be what's in the bestinterest of them and the long haul as
they try and get back to contention. It's not going to be about a
temporary band aid. So while I'mnot going to guarantee that if Scoot Henderson's
on the board for them that they'lltake him, No, it's entirely possible
they could be one of the teamsthat likes Brandon Miller or Aman Thompson more.
What I will guarantee is if theRockets ultimately passed on Scoot Henderson or
(30:27):
any lead ballhandler for that matter,it would not be because of James Harden.
It would be because they simply viewthat player, rightly or wrongly,
as the better long term prospect.They are not dumb. James Harden is
a bridge. Even if he fitsnow, even if he's a clean fit,
he is a short term band aidfor two to three years as you
(30:48):
try to transition to relevancy. Heis not a part of your long term
puzzle. We talk about that inthe past as the Rockets actually try to
get back to title tension, likelythree plush years down the line. So
with that, hopefully that will calmfears. We'll talk a bit more in
a few moments once the picks oractually counted down. I just wanted to
(31:11):
clarify that anybody concerned that the Rocketsare going to let the presence of Harden
impact their decision making with an assetas premium as a top six pick in
a pretty strong draft, I'm confidentin saying that's not going to happen.
How does that make you feel anybetter? It does, but it's it's
a little better when we had confirmationthat they had Scoot number two. You
(31:37):
know, you know enough. It'sI just value just personally. I just
value what a prospect like Scoot bringsso much. And because he is so
unique, right, people look atit and they and they say, oh,
this guy is like Russell Westbrooks,like version two or whatever. I
see so much difference between them.I think Scoots as much money in control
when he drives, think natural playmakers. And we've we've we've learned to value
(32:04):
this as Rockets fans with the KPKApoint guard experience experiment and you know other
guys that we've tried to put thatfill for the game from your lead guard,
for waymaking wise, rhythm wise,everything is invaluable. Um M.
Scoot has that. And then besidesthat something that we've learned to value with
(32:27):
James Harden is how acceleration is important, but deceleration is the real killer in
most NBA guards, and Scoot hasthat to a tea as well. Right
now. He can get the rimat will, and he can decelerate and
have a little get a little floateror get a mad drink shot, and
is an a lead mad drink hurer. He's not quite an average three point
(32:49):
here just yet, but he iswilling to shoot them. He shot he
shoots them at two clip almost takendream last year. He does it from
you know, the actual NBA linebecause he played in the teague. So
I just think that you know,archetype and then those traits seem specific on
a point guard that are so valuablethat to me, he's clear number two.
(33:12):
And he's that here above above theother two guys. That being a
man in Vernon Miller. But youknow, I could be wrong, um
yeah, but I mean I've beenright the last I think the last two
drafts in who the Rockets valued themost. Yeah, so I've been pretty
much him. And I was twoyears ago as well. I was a
big guy. Um, so youknow, hopefully I'm right again, who
(33:37):
knows that? Being said, it'sit's the nerves. The nerves are strying
to creep in. Okay, well, the picks are going now, so
we're done. Let's get to thepicks. And keep in mind as they
show the Arnston Young accounting faults onscreen, they supervise the process. They're
pulling four lottery balls. It's notfrozen envelopes back in the day. As
I discussed in my pod with playAll and the Rockets actual drew representative a
(34:00):
couple of weeks ago, this isvery, very difficult to actually fix even
if you wanted to, because ofthe four digit combinations. There's a third
party accounting firm overseeing it. Andremember they're just drawing for the four lottery
picks, so there's an order.And if one of these teams at the
back end of the lottery is notchosen, it means they jumped into the
top four. Okay, okay,first of one, please Chalk please New
(34:21):
Orleans. Okay, okay, that'sfine. Naps should be Toronto, please
Toronto next. Nothing surprising yet it'sToronto. Okay. Community, this is
a big one. It'd be disappointingif Oklahomia, please please to old Gacy.
Okay, it's not okay, exhale, exhale. Okay, it's Chicago.
(34:44):
Chicago. I was a friendly team. I mean, I hope they
don't jump. But still oh no, no, no, no, it's
two. It's Chicago because it's goingto Orlando. They didn't care they lost
the pick, they didn't drop everything, or they didn't jump. Everything is
out of this ten. This beDallas. This is big. Please it
is They did not go. Nowit's mine close the competitive lands of the
(35:07):
league. Utah. This is Portland. We're six. This cannot be Portland.
It's Utah. Everything is as is. Okay, okay. Next should
be Washington. That's big, noneof the you know, fringe washing.
It cannot be Charlotte. This cannotbe Charlotte. Okay, Washington. Everything
(35:27):
is as it is so far,no surprises, do not be it's not
enough. Well, it can't beSantio. It's not. It's the same.
And here we go. And nowit could be yes at any point,
yes, oh god, here wego. It's not. The Rockets
are in the top five. Nextshould be Portland. The worst case scenario
(35:52):
the Rockets have avoided Please notice it'snot not the rock got in the top
four Pistons spell. Now there's goingto be a very long and tense commercial
break. But as I said,going in the Rockets, the Spurs,
(36:15):
the Hornets and Blazers, the worsthas been avoided. As I was telling
you when we started this pod,I'm having a huge cider relief. Obviously
I want Wenby dude, but Detroitjust got our doomsday scenario from the last
two seasons. I think, Ithink, and I know you're passionate about
(36:36):
Scoot, but I think getting inthe top four is big because even if
the Rockets aren't four, I thinkthere's a world where either a the people
that really like Wendy Miller or AmanThompson are right, or b there's a
role in which one of those teamsends up getting number two. Well,
I guess the Pistons won't. Thatwas one of the scenarios and you could
potentially trade for that, or Imean they just pass up Scoot altogether because
(36:59):
he's a point GUARDI has slightly lessversatility. But we won the lottery three
years in a row. Yeah,let's get a shout out, because that
would happen never happened. Well,this podcast will be r rated. We'll
leave that in. But oh juslay Alan, Rockets general counsel. He
(37:19):
has been the man in the roomevery time twenty twenty one, twenty twenty
two, twenty twenty three, everyyear to get in the top four,
to win win the lottery picks.It's basically a fifty fifty probability, even
if you had one of the threeworst records, which are maximum odds.
The Rockets this year fifty two percentto win, a fifty two percent corn
flip every time. That in andof itself is amazing. Twelve point five
(37:44):
percent chance. Yeah, And what'sincredible is that the last few year it's
not like there's when the corn flipbecause they weren't it four or either of
those years. They were two oneyear and three the other. It is
so for reference, it is morelikely to get in this draft than it
would be twin to beat up fouryears in a row. Yeah, that's
crazy. This, Yeah, thisis just nuts for them to read the
(38:07):
needle three years in a row.I know there's still the upside of Victor
or Scoot be getting in the topfour. That is big time upside.
That is these bad raids are goingto kill me. Yeah. Oh they're
killing me too. I mean it'sa combination of obvious anticipation but also just
(38:30):
sigh of relief. They have theworst case scenario. They are going to
get a blue ripper out of this, even though I don't have them in
the level of scoop. You cantalk me into Aman Thompson or Brandon Miller,
you absolutely can. You can alsotalking in the scenario where that pick
is a really attractive trade asset,be it. Maybe they are able to
move up for Scoot Henderson, asI have referenced a few times, or
(38:51):
maybe they put it on the marketand they say, we already have enough
young guys. This is a possibilityto add a veteran and add some more
experience to wait, not necessarily JamesHarden level experience, but you know,
not all nineteen and twenty year olds. It just gives you so many options
to be in the top four.I just think, at a bare minimum,
you've got a great asset out ofthis. So who's the top four?
(39:13):
The Fort Houston, San Antonio,Charlotte, and Portland. Yes,
so if it's Portland, Charlotte orCharlotte, Charlotte has Lamento Ball. Yeah,
pick two might not be like twomight if there if it's Portland.
Yeah, it's an interesting scenario forsure. San Antonio's day. I think
(39:36):
they're gonna go one. I thinkone san Antonio. Okay, we're black.
Oh god, I'm preparing for foursimply because the Rockets have been so
lucky with the draws. And canyou imagine what the draft party is like
that the summit guys put on.They invited me to it, of course,
but I could never be seen outin public during this. I'm just
gonna be honest. I'm way toonervous. The people that do that every
year, I mean Friday to them, I am a nervous effing rack during
(40:00):
this. Uh teesus man Lebron Jameshighlights, dude, Yeah, I am
not fit for public consumption right now. But yeah, fitting of course they're
showing le Bron James highlights because LakersDuggets Game one of the Western Conference Finals
starts in a few minutes. Butyeah, it's fitting because of course we're
(40:22):
talking about Victor in women Yama's twentyyears later. I guess since Lebron,
I'll set my threshold bit three,because I think at three there's a camp
scoot falls to three. But butthat's gonna be so painful to wait for.
That's gonna that's gonna be so painfulto wait for. Like if we'll
be, if we're if you getthree, I know, in the uncertainty,
(40:43):
Yeah, okay, if you andif you potentially have Brandon Miller,
think of all the shock creation pondswe're going to have to endure. Yeah,
okay, there's Brenda lay Mark Williams. I don't know who the Spurs
guy is, and here we go, here we go, here we go.
Pick number four is okay? Allright? Not ideal, but whatever,
(41:12):
we'll take it. Not san Antonio, damn it, it's Charlotte Sanatorio.
I think it's gonna be san Antonio. It's gonna be san Antonio.
This is Rick Yeah, yeah,yeah. And for the record, we'll
get some clarity on this. Ido not think that losing the coin flip
(41:37):
lost the Rockets the Victor Wimbanyama combination. It does suck that he's going to
san Antonio. I'm sure there's I'mgoing to say, well, if the
Rockets had won that coin flip withthe Spurs, would they have had the
combination. I do not have thisconfirmed. I will work to do it
and then i'll put it out onTwitter. But as I understand it,
(41:57):
the one hundred and forty combinations andone of which was the winning one for
the Spurs, were locked in atthe end of the season because the three
teams with the worst records were theRockets, the Pistons, and the Spurs.
I do not think that they hadyou know, one hundred and forty
combinations for you know, slot twoversus Slot three, because they're all the
(42:21):
same, it's all the same numberof combinations. As I understand it,
the coin flip was just in caseboth the Rockets and Spurs missed out on
the lottery, then who ends uppicking higher, And that was what gave
the Rockets a floor, a picksix instead of pick number seven. So
I know that's a little bit ofI guess, a limited silver lining.
(42:45):
But I don't think the Rockets lost, in this case a huge asset simply
due to the coin flip. Ithink they lost it just due to the
lottery. With all it said,though, while it sucks that he's going
to the West, I think thisis what you wanted yeah, I do
think that the Rockets. They arerivals of the Spurs, let's be clear
(43:08):
about that. But Houston is amuch bigger market. They do have certain
institutional advantages, especially in an NBAthat's going increasingly global with market size becoming
even more important. This is notlike the Rockets are all of a sudden
eons behind the Spurs. No,this gives the Spurs a competitive chance and
(43:30):
it makes the Western Conference even tougher. But I don't think you should view
it as a dagger because it's theSpurs right down the road on itin.
I think it's you know, thesame as any other Western Conference team except
for the MAVs. The map wouldhave been the absolute worst case scenario because
that's the one team that has almostidentical odds to the Rockets, or as
(43:51):
identical odds, identical background when itcomes to how you're trying to put a
contender together, market size, partof the country, all the business factors.
Dallas and Houston are so close.San Antonio is a bit different,
so it's not the worst case scenario. It's not ideal. What I will
(44:12):
say for the Rockets I mentioned goingin they needed to get in the top
four. That was my big cutoff, and they were able to get
in that. I do wonder,at least on paper, both the Blazers
and the Hornets, who are atthree and two respectively, have point guards.
The Blazers have Damian Lillard, theHornets have Lamello Ball. Now,
(44:32):
that does not guarantee they're going topass up on Scoot Henderson. After all,
It's entirely possible that one or bothof those guys could ask for trades,
or maybe their teams decide that ScootHenderson is just that good and maybe
they just want to be proactive,especially in the case of Damian Lillard,
who's now in his thirties. Butat least with those two teams being in
(44:52):
front of you at two or three, to me, that adds considerably more
uncertainty in that top four to wherethe suit falls, or maybe the Rockets,
if they really want him, areable to trade up. To me,
While it sucks that the Spurs gotwhimby, as far as the rest
of it, it's not all thatbad. Yeah. I mean with with
(45:15):
the with the Blazers behind Damian Lillard, they still have Anthony Simons, who
is averaging like twenty one and fouron on alite efficiency with a over to
assistant turnover ratio, So they havetwo point guards there. But I don't
(45:37):
think it's good falls to far.I think if the Rockets want to trade
that firm, that may be apossibility. Whether the Rockets want to do
that or not, who knows,who knows what it what it would cost
even um. So if you're ifyou're I'm just trying to figure that out
in my head. If you're Charlotte, you there the two guys that you
have, at least in my opinion, there are you know here for the
(46:00):
or probably Lamebo Ball and maybe MarkWilliams, which means all of their kind
of gaps are on the wings right, So who knows what they will be
at they will be after they couldI mean LaMelo Ball is I think six
or seven. He has the size, it just doesn't have the toughness to
play to play defense and I meanat any position. But they could try
(46:22):
Scoot and Scoot and LaMelo um togetheras a back ard and that could be
fun. But about the about itbeing the Spurs, it just it made
them since the beginning for it tobe the Spurs. It's just you know
it's I guess it's it Spops last. I guess it's Spops last reward.
(46:45):
I guess he'll I guess he'll finishhis coaching career, you know, coaching
up what could be a gold likea gold level player by the time it's
all said and done so and andit's it's supposedly team with a good structure.
They don't really have. They don'treally have any any cornerstone pieces in
(47:06):
place already. So Wendy's probably goingto get freedom to do whatever he wants,
but it might be it might bean interesting class because while he might
get to do anything he wants,Bob is also no kind of a strict
coat. And when we know fromwhat we've heard in interviews that wemby someone
who acts to be given his freedom, so well, we'll see how that
(47:28):
goes. I don't think we're therebehind the spur or behind it all the
spurs same, it's just and there. They got a lamp start on the
biggest lamp start the could ever askor on their reguld what it means for
the Rockets. I mean, whatdoes this mean for the glam Sarden person?
I mean, if if it hadn'tit fit, hadn't If it works
(47:52):
good, it would be to kindof mess up with the Clams Sarden debate.
I wonder if Amen Thompson does thesame thing. I'm personally not too
high on him, but we allknow the Over the next few months until
the draft, I'm going to sellmyself on him and think he's the superstar.
Yeah, but I guess the obviouspick between him and Miller, I
(48:13):
was just probably Miller right now,just from a positional sentpoin, we're considering
you have them in the same tier. Yea, but yeah, I mean,
ideally I'd be calling Charlotte right nowseeing what they want for to pick
too, But it'll still happen.Yep. I would say my general mood
is slightly down, but not devastated. It's not five or six, and
(48:38):
it's just one of those things youwould love to have gotten Wemby, But
at the same time, when youconsider what they've already gotten the last couple
of years, it's tough to feelunlucky. It's just one of those things.
It feels like you know you hada great opportunity you didn't get it,
But it's tough for me to bethat that down in the grand scheme,
(49:00):
they're still going to get a prettystrong asset out of this. Wait,
they leak it. So if youwere paying attention, um when when
they picked up the envelopes, yeah, and they were carrying them off stage
onto the stake, Apparently there wasa camera that was a little bit too
low and you can see the Spurtslogo at the bottom of all the envelopes.
(49:23):
Oh really yeah, and then gladlydid it made for a good for
her reaction, I guess, andfor a little bit of perspective. So
Detroit the last two years had thesame odds that the Rockets did. Let
me, let me come from thatreal quick, I know they did this
(49:45):
year. Were the Were the Pistonsin the bottom three a year ago?
Yes they were, and the Pistonswere at five both times. So for
people complaining, and again it's notall bad. Ja and Ivy had a
nice rookie season, but the Pistonsand Rockets had the same odds the last
two years. The Rockets ended upat three and four, winning lottery picks
(50:07):
both times. The Pistons did notwin a lottery pick and work five both
years. So to me, that'sthat's sort of useful perspective that you can
take out of this. It's I'mnot gonna lie, it's underwhelming. But
at the same time, you justcan't say that you weren't lucky over the
last three years. I think,as I said, I don't think any
(50:30):
team has ever won the lottery oryou know, winning the lottery by definition
is jumping into the top four.Four teams win the lottery every year.
Winning the lottery three times in arow is really lucky, so we can't
really complain. But at the sametime, it's felt like, you know,
last year, yes we won thelottery, Yes we got into the
(50:51):
top three, but we just missedout on and who knows who knows I
mean, continuing their career so far, we don't know who's going to be
better. But at the time,like Kate was like the number one guy
and we got the guy just below. Last year, I'm for me,
Tier one was was Paolo and Katand then we got to your Barbie,
(51:14):
who was the guy just below.This year, the Tier one to me
was Wemby and Scoot and we're gonnaget one of the guys are just below.
So it's I mean it's we can'tsay that we were unlucky, because
we were very lucky. But youhave to wonder who's better off a team
that called a team Mic Orlando thatgoll lucky and got number one and then
(51:37):
God was at six and five theother two years, or team Mike Detroit
who got number one and got kidand then got pick four and pick five
to two years afterwards. Or ateam that you know couldn't quite crack that
top tier on any of the drafts, but got the guy just below like
in all three of them, versusyou know, did the other example,
(52:00):
the other example that I provided.Yeah, all right, well, I
think that will do it for onepot, especially because Powlo, I know
you're running on fumes, it's afterone am in Portugal and you're dealing with
COVID. I think we'll be ina better position in a few days to
talk about the options too, becausepart of it, you know, I
don't want to do a disservice toguys like Amen Thompson or Brandon Miller.
(52:21):
They're really, really good prospects,because you know, until ten minutes ago,
we had, even if we knewit was a slim chance, a
chance at even Wimby, but atnumber two, a clear path to Scoot
Henderson. Now there's more uncertainty.Again, it's not all bad statistically,
you certainly were not unlucky by anymeans, but just they're certainly a little
(52:43):
bit of jealousy too, because theRockets have been doing this for three years
and they never got the top pickthe Spurs. This was the first year
that they totally bombed out and theyget the one. Of course, that's
how historically that's been the bed rockof their franchise. You know, they
got David Robinson that way, theygot Tim Duncan that way. It just
is what it is. And we'llsee if Victor Wembanyama follows in their footsteps.
(53:04):
But yeah, the Rockets are stillin a good place overall. It
definitely brings more competition into the stateof Texas, puts more spotlight on the
Southwest Division. Boy, between Wemby, John Morant, Luca Zion. Of
course Shaw and Zion have their ownconcerns, but still, at least on
paper, those are big time talents. Boy, you have to be hoping
if you're the Rockets that Jalen JabbarrationGoon, whoever you draft this year is
(53:27):
able to potentially make the leap intothat conversation, or who knows, maybe
they're able to sign in free agencyor trade for one of those guys in
the years ahead. Anyway, Paulo, if you're okay, we can wrap
it. Here's anything else that youwanted to add. Yeah, I'm going
to spend the next few days withCOVID walking as much Samne Thompson as I
can, because I'm guessing that's goingto be the guy it's going to be
left Force. I will just tellyou I would not make that assumption.
(53:52):
I've talked to some people that Itrust that tell me that, and I'm
not saying it to This was aconversation I had weeks ago that insisted to
me that am and Thompson was secondon a lot of team's boards. Now
I don't know what a lot is, but it didn't sound like one or
(54:13):
two. I also don't know ifthe Rockets are one of those teams.
So no, I'm not saying thatnecessarily the Rockets are one of them.
But I do think there's a worldin which, you know, it's just
tough to say with Portland and Charlotte, especially because what you know about those
teams. At least now they're bothdefined by having an all star point guard.
So I think there's a bit moreuncertainty than people think. I still
(54:37):
think I would agree with you thatAm and Thompson is the most likely scenario,
but I don't think it's a donedeal. So I would watch a
little bit of Brandon Miller as well. I would also say you can watch
Scoot Henderson, but A, Ithink you've already done that, and B
I don't think you want to setyourself up for the disappointment if it doesn't
happen, right, Yeah, Iguess I'm just looking forward to seeing what
(55:00):
the reporting says in the next fewdays, to see if you know this
gets you got for. It doesmean you've got to stay at four.
And I think the two teams thatare ahead of start of teams that could
possibly look into trading their picks orbe more open to it then. I
mean, if THO Spurs got pickedtoo, that pick was not moving for
anything, that was good to understandit. It's so it'll be it'll be
(55:22):
interesting not to see if those teamsare willing to trade it, because I
think that's going to be just amassive lever of the game leading it to
draft. But I'll be interested tosee how the Rockets themselves feel about what
their top four is and how muchof a gap there may be between two
and four, to see, ifyou know, if there would be interested
in trading up or I mean,especially with games Harden being an option.
(55:44):
I know, I know you wouldn'tdraft a different guy because of James Starden,
but GLAMs Harden coming in, makingyour willingness to spend extra assets to
move up. I think that maybeI think that changes. I don't know,
so yeah, I guess we'll seewhat the reports are over the next
few weeks and hey, draft seasonstart snaw. Yeah, I agree,
(56:04):
we'll pick up a lot more inthe weeks ahead, and I'm sure we'll
be in a better mood in afew days, just a little bit don't
want to say bomb, just slightlymelanchololy now since it's a bit of a
missed opportunity. Will be a bitperkier in a few days, and hopefully
Pallo will because in an addition toletting some time bass getting more perspective,
Pallo also will hopefully be past COVIDso hopefully our next episode a lot more
perspective. We'll try and get adraft analyst on and we will go from
there. Anyway, with that,we will put this draft Lottery episode of
(56:30):
the logger Line to bed for PaaloAlves. I'm Ben Dubos. If you
want more insight from us before ournext episode, the best way to get
that is on Twitter. I'm onthere at Ben Dubos, Pollo is on
there at Palo Alves NBA. Theshow is on there the logger Line,
at the Logger Line, and ifyou go there, you can find our
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(56:52):
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their content and showed them some love. Beyond that, you can also find
all of our distributors Apple, Google, Spotify and you can access all of
our episodes there as well. Withthat, we will adjourn for Paulo.
I'm Ben. Thanks as always forlistening and please come back soon for another
new episode of the lagger Line.