Rockets notes: Future draft outlook, FIBA Dillon Brooks takeaways

Wednesday’s episode features insight on Houston’s future draft outlook relative to other teams, and why it could be better than a recent Bleacher Report article believes. Other topics include key takeaways from Dillon Brooks’ performance on Canada’s 2023 FIBA World Cup team, as well as the implications of Oklahoma City waiving Usman Garuba and TyTy Washington Jr. and what it says about Rockets general manager Rafael Stone.

Episode Transcript

(00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome toThe lagger Line, an exclusive podcast from
the home of the Rockets, SportsTalk seven ninety. The lagger Line,
It's proudly served to you by CarboxClutch City logger It is good Yeah,

(00:22):
Red Nation, get ready to getready, Get ready. The lagger Line
starts now. Welcome aboard, Welcomein to another new episode of the logger
Line, as always served to youcourtesy of Clutch City Lager of Carback Brewing,

(00:45):
their beer developed in collaboration with yourHouston Rockets. I'm your host,
Ben Dubos, editor of USA Today'sRocket Squire and a contributor to Sports Talk
seven ninety, the official flagship radiostation of the team. I'm again joined
by our co host and producer PortugalPaalo Alves. You can follow me on
Twitter or x at Ben Dubos andPaulo at Palo Alves NBA. First things

(01:07):
first, Pallo, you enjoyed thisMichael Brantley return day and we haven't gotten
to see him bad yet, butI'm here I will. I mean,
for the Astros, it's pretty hugebecause they can they've kind of, at
least from what I've what they taketurns at either the picking sucks or the
offense sucks, and it's like oneat a time, so they lose a
lot of games because of that.So that just should take care of half
of it, right, even thoughhe's probably not going to be as good

(01:30):
of an offended as he was,you know, when he was younger,
or we probably won't test his armat that much, but hopefully just stays
healthy. Man, it's been it'sbeen really heartbreaking that he's you know,
been on the cusp of coming backlike two or three times and had to
go through he to rehab assignments again. So yeah, it's it's a it's
an exciting time to be an astro'sfend. It's also I read say on

(01:52):
Twitter that I think the Yange Billsand then some other team, I think
the Yankees the baseball equivalent of wavesa bunch of a bunch of guys that
are supposed to be decent. Andapparently the way it works, you know,
this is me learning, you know, the cap stuff about the NBA
about baseball. Apparently the way itworks is the waiver like order or the

(02:12):
waiver wire like the claim order ofthe teams is said at the time that
the player is wait, which isactually really interesting with the MLB because with
the NBA, it's every couple ofdays you have a game, right,
so that doesn't change levement. Withinthe MLB two days, it would be
six games before I'm talking about obviouslythe Mariners, the Rangers, and the

(02:34):
and the Astros right and the momentthey were wait, the Astros were like
zero point one point zero zero onepercent win rate worse than the than the
Rangers, which means they'd actually havethe slot right above them or right ahead
of them and the waiver wire.If someone felt that far, if we
never know if they will, soI had that it was hilarious that a

(02:55):
situation presented itself where a zero pointzero zero one percent win rate could change
the outcome of I don't know whatI mean. Imagine if it's like a
picture or a reliever and they likethey get a shout out in in a
big moment in the playoffs. Imean, it can be hard to crack,
to crack the Astro's rotation right now, so it could be it could

(03:15):
be important down the line, andthey would be looking back at this,
you know, at this week andlooking at a zero points zero zero one
percent camps, not camps, butdifference in one percent. Yeah, it
could be. Matt Moore is theguy I'm really interested in, the lefty
reliever from the Angels whose RAA islike two point three and his web that's

(03:37):
Watson hits for inning spitch is belowone. Dusty Baker's been looking for a
lefty he can trust out of thatbullpen. Really since the end of twenty
twenty one they used Brooks Raley inthat role, and ever since he left
in free agency for one reason oranother, they've never been able to find
another lefty that he can. Don'tlike Will Smith, oh geez, although
I do like Will Smith given whathe's done for the Astros in rees weeks.

(04:00):
Trying to emphasis on trying to closegames for the Rangers. But yeah,
we're watching Full Disclosure to peel backthe curtain. We're recording this obviously
Tuesday night, August twenty nine,and as reference sits the big return game
for Michael Brantley to the Astros lineup. As we were getting set to record,
the Astros already hit back to backhome runs Alex Bregman yard on Alvarez

(04:21):
in the first and they've entered thisgame red hot, three straight wins,
thirty runs in their last two games. Now you're adding Michael Brantley, a
borderline Hall of Famer, to themix, so a ton of excitement there.
It's a good time to bring Brantleyback as well, because they're in
Finway Park, which because of theMonster, has a short left field.
The Astros are about to have ahomestand coming up as well a lot of

(04:43):
home games throughout the first two orthree weeks of September, which also has
because of the Crawford Boxes, ashort left field, So that could be
good for limiting what Brantley has todo defensively on the days that he's in
left field. And I think thiscould be the best case scenario. From
what I understand about his medical situation, the real concern is that because he's
had that shoulder cut on so manytimes, it's not just the surgery he

(05:06):
had a year ago. It's thathe's now he's either thirty six or thirty
seven years old, and he's hadat least three shoulder surgeries over his career,
and that's a lot, and there'sonly so much muscle left. And
so the reality is if he hadcome back earlier in the season, I'm
honestly not sure if he would havemade it through anything close to a full
one hundred and sixty two games asopposed to now. Hopefully you bring him

(05:27):
back now and the next couple ofweeks are sort of going to be like
spring training, and then maybe fromearly September through what we hope is early
November, you can actually get twomonths out of him in a way that
you probably well, you could havegotten two months earlier in the year,
but then the odds are he wouldhave had issues again prior to the postseason,
whereas now you get a fresh MichaelBrantley for the postseason. Anyway,
that's the hope, and I knowthis is a Rockets podcast, but I

(05:50):
want to lead off addressing that becauseif you hear Hollow or myself, either
of us having a sudden outburst aswe're recording tonight, that's why Astro's right
sluge because a big sea while MauricioDubon just made an incredible catch in center
field. Great start to this game. Anyway, as far as the NBA,
we're still a little over a monthwhen training camps open for the twenty

(06:10):
twenty three to twenty fourth season,So as far as our Rockets coverage,
we're going to stay macro rather thanmicro for at least the next couple of
weeks. Leacher Reports Eric Pinkas,who happens to be, in my opinion,
one of the best salary cap analystsin the league, had a really
great article earlier this week ranking theNBA's thirty teams by their future draft assets,
and conceptually, I think that's asuper useful way to look at the

(06:32):
league because that type of ranking,it not only tells you about each team's
potential upside when it comes to improvingthrough the draft over the coming years,
but there's also a correlation to whatthey might be able to do on the
trade market based on the quality oftheir draft assets. Anyway, he rants
the Rockets at number twelve amongst theNBA's thirty teams in future draft assets,

(06:55):
which is slightly better than average.However, I actually think it's a little
soft, and Powell, I wantto get your take as to whether I'm
missing anything in my analysis. SoI think Houston's a bit of a confusing
situation because when you look at themon paper now, the Rockets do have
as many as eleven second round picksheaded their way, and when we talk
about future draft desthsets, it's overthe next seven seasons because any further than

(07:18):
that end picks are not eligible tobe dealt. So we're looking at the
NBA basically through twenty thirty through theprojectable years. Everything beyond that will not
become eligible to be dealt until nextsummer, when it's inside of seven years,
so or seven seasons, I shouldsay, so beyond twenty thirty,

(07:39):
every team has the same draft outlookas at this moment, they have their
own first round pick and their ownsecond round pick, So as far as
the next seven years, I thinkwhen you look at the Rocket situation on
paper, they have eleven second roundpicks, which are nice, but at
the end of the day, secondround picks are mostly lottery tickets, so
the vast majority of the grade isdone based on first round selections. And

(08:00):
they have these picks coming in fromBrooklyn in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty
six and then swap rights all unprotected. I'll get to the importance of that
momentarily in twenty twenty five and twentytwenty seven. Yet in that same window,
from twenty twenty four through twenty twentysix. They have a couple of
picks headed to Oklahoma City twenty twentyfour and twenty twenty six, along with

(08:20):
a swap in twenty twenty five.Now, unlike the picks headed from Brooklyn
to Houston, which are unprotected,those picks to Oklahoma going from Houston to
Oklahoma City do have protections top fourin twenty twenty four and twenty twenty six.
Those are the direct conveyances, andthe swap right in twenty twenty five
is top ten protected. And that'san important distinction to get to, because

(08:43):
superficially, what I think it lookslike is that Houston basically is at parody.
The superficial way to look at itis the Rockets lose their own picks
in all likelihood to Oklahoma City thenext couple of years, but then they
replenish the from Brooklyn via the Januarytwenty twenty one James Harden deal, and

(09:03):
it all comes out of wash.And when you look at it that way,
you can say that the Rockets aremiddle of the pack, maybe slightly
above, because they have all thosesecond round picks as well, and the
Brooklyn outlook after trading Kevin Durant andKyrie Irving at the deadline and their metrics
as a team after that, we'renot very good. So perhaps you give
the Rockets a little bit of abump, But I think superficially, when

(09:24):
you look at this at a veryhigh level, you say, the Rockets
basically have a normal draft moving forward. It's not a terrible situation. The
good news they have at least onefirst round pick in every single year because
of the Steppian rule. That's importantin that it makes all of their picks
trade eligible. You don't have anythingpotentially off the table and a deal for
a hypothetical discradled superstar. We hadour Joel and Beat episode a few weeks

(09:48):
ago. Rockets don't have to worryabout that because they do have a pick
every single year. But when youlook at it in terms of what's coming
in from Brooklyn and what's supposed togo to Oklahoma City, it looks like
it comes out of wash. However, in reality, because of those protections,
the Rockets do have multiple chances inthose years at a very high draft
pick in the first round, andultimately that's what you're hoping for. In

(10:11):
the NBA, you have to puta disproportionate amount of weight when you're trying
to gray draft classes or draft outlookson who has not just the most first
round picks, but the opportunity toget a high first round pick. And
so when you look at the draftlottery next year, the Rockets have two
realistic chances. Obviously, the pickthey have coming from Brooklyn is unprotected.

(10:33):
As mentioned, the Nets were badafter the trade deadline this year. Their
metrics were not good at all,and so we hope that pick pans out
in the lottery and the Rockets getone of the top four picks for a
fourth consecutive year. However, becausethe rockets own pick is top four protected,
that gives them some optionality as well. I don't think the Rockets are
going to enter this season trying tolose by any means. We know,

(10:56):
bringing in Emai Ujoka and signing veteransFred VanVleet and Dylan Brooks more on him
in a bet. When we talkedabout Canada's World Cup performance, the Rockets
are going to be trying to win, but it's far from a given that
they will. They've been the worstteam in the West for the last three
seasons. There's a new coaching staffin plays, you have a lot of
young guys whose performance is difficult toextrapolate when we're trying to predict what's going

(11:18):
to happen. So there's a worldin which the Rockets aren't as good as
quickly as we would like. There'salso a world where maybe the Rockets decide
to pivot closer to the trade deadlineand take a step back to maximize the
odds of their top four protection kickingin. We saw this happen in twenty
twenty one after the hardened trade withthe Nets. It wasn't like they were

(11:39):
tanking. Initially, there were thecouple of weeks of the wow factor,
John Wall, Christian Would, VictorOladipo, They had a six game winning
streak seven of eight, But thenChristian Would got hurt, Victor Oladippo and
Eric Gordon had their own issues,and by the deadline, the Rockets realized
that this wasn't going anywhere. Theytraded Oladipo, they traded Tucker, they
shut down Eric Gordon early, andthat top four protection ended up kicking in.

(12:00):
They had one of the league's worldrecords which gave them a fifty two
percent chance at a top four pick, and it ended up activating. And
that's why you have Jalen Green.I don't think the Rockets are heading into
this season with that as their primaryplan. I think they want to win.
But if say they're unlucky with injuries, or if let's just say the
chemistry takes longer than we think becauseyou have so many young guys and a
new head coach, then yeah,it is an option. If things don't

(12:22):
go your way, you can tryto do everything you can to maximize your
percentage odds of getting a top fourpick. In twenty twenty four, so
between the Brooklyn pick, which conveysunprotected, and the Houston pick having top
four protection, the Rockets have twochances at a high pick, which is
what really matters. And when we'retalking to NBA outlook, and that's just

(12:43):
to use twenty twenty four as anexample, the same can apply when we
talk about the swap in twenty twentyfive, or certainly in twenty twenty six.
It's another year that you have adirect pick conveyance from Brooklyn. The
point is the Rockets have multiple chancesto get high in the order, and
that's what really counts in the NBA, which is the ultimate quality over quantity
league. And then when I lookat this list, if you look at

(13:05):
a few teams ahead of them,the Pacers at nine basically just have their
own first round picks through twenty thirty, and they have one incoming pick,
likely from the Clippers this year.The Celtics at eight have basically their own
first rounders and they have one incomingpick from the Warriors in twenty twenty four.
Spoiler alert. They're gonna be agood team. They're trying to win

(13:26):
it all. And then the Magicat number seven, they have basically their
own first round picks and one incomingfrom the Nuggets, a protected pick in
twenty twenty five, and the Nuggetsare the defending NBA champions. They're gonna
have Nicola Yoki chill in his prime. Spoiler alert, they are going to
be good. I would personally takethe Rockets over all of those teams based

(13:48):
on the upside of having two chancesand two paths in these years. At
a high pick, now, itdoesn't mean you're gonna have two picks.
No, if it's outside the topfour, then it will go to Oklahoma
City in twenty twenty four, twentytwenty six, and then in twenty twenty
five twenty twenty seven. We're talkingabout swaps. However, the fact that
it gives the Rockets two chances ata high pick, that's very important,

(14:11):
and I think it's being undervalued here. I'm not saying the Rockets are at
the top of the league in termsof their assets. I think, in
particular, some of the Western Conferenceteams that have offloaded superstars in recent years,
think the Thunder with Paul George andRussell Westbrook, the Spurs with Deontay
Murray, the Jazz with Rudy Gobertand Donovan Mitchell, the Pelicans with Anthony
Davis. Those teams are in thetop tier. The Rockets aren't there because

(14:35):
those teams generally have most of theirown picks, along with close to a
full draft from another team. TheRockets aren't there. However, after that
top tier, I would say,particularly given the uncertainty with both the Nets
and the Rockets, I would rankthe Rockets maybe I would say like the
five through seven or eight range,because to me, the upside, especially

(14:58):
when we're talking the next three orfour years and the uncertainty involving both the
Nets and the Rockets to have twochances with those two franchises, And thank
god Daryl Moray was able to putthose protections on the deal with Oklahoma City
for Ross in twenty nineteen, andsimilarly, thank goodness that Raphael Stone was
able to get totally unprotected picks fromthe Nets in twenty twenty one. Because

(15:20):
of that, I think the Rocketshave a better chance than almost any team
outside of those top four or fiveat getting a high pick. It's not
something you're banking on, but whenit comes to projecting the future outlook,
it's something that to me is interesting. And you know, it's not something
I believe the Rockets are counting onby any means. They're all in on

(15:41):
the young core that's in place nowand the veteran they signed, and Email
Ujoka installing his new culture and soon and so forth. But I do
think that, especially in this slowtime when we can take a step back
and look at the macro, it'simportant to remember the Rockets do have optionality.
They do have other paths as well. If for some reason, this
Plan A doesn't work as well asthey want it. To and from where

(16:06):
I'm sitting, they have a prettygood hand, a slightly better hand than
the Bleacher Report article suggests they doat number twelve. Hollo, what's your
view on that? Yeah, Iagree with you. I'm not going to
fact go as high as five orfive through seven or somewhere in that range.
But I do think that you haveto rent the Rockets above, at
at the very least above teams whohave their own draft but are currently contenders.

(16:30):
So it makes no sense seve Rocketsbehind the Celtics, for example,
because you can't tweet all for trunkpicks the same the Celtics have their own
draft and they have a big,big one, a team that's that's going
to be, you know, acontender. I can quite remember who they
it is. In specific, theRockets have obviously got a better draft than
them because well, first of all, they're not protected to be as good
as a team, and then,as you said, they have the options

(16:52):
to swop with the nets and inthe NBA, as we've seen with those
Money groupin that I've watching them justthis season. It counts is the quality
of the first round picks, notreally the quantity, because late in the
first round guys get out of theleague, are out of the league.
Two three's for tight time one yearafter being drafted, and so post twenty.
While it may matter depending on thedraft, it's usually you know,

(17:15):
there's a there's a huge drop off. The other thing that I would mention
is, you know, and theprotections they are top four, right,
which means if you're the worst inthe league, you have a fifty percent
shot. But I also means thatand that looks really terrible, right,
But the top teams having less chancesat the top means that if you're not
one of the worst teams in theleague, if you are five through tenth,

(17:37):
fifth through tenth words in the league, or even somewhat top of that,
you still will have a pretty goodchance that jumping into the top four.
Every year since the lotteryots have changed, two teams I've comed into the
top four who weren't in the toubfour before. So, you know,
because of the way the draft houtswork. Now the position where the rockets

(17:57):
are is the teams that are notabsolutely tanking but also didn't make the playoffs
are lost in the play in whichis probably what the rockets not are aiming
for, but what likely the resultwill be. Those are the teams to
get benefited the most because the draftstops that got taken away from the top
four got spread out throughout the restof the lottery, and if you are

(18:18):
in the rest of the watery youget you benefit from that. The contender
doesn't benefit from that. A teamthat's one of the worst in the league
gets you know that didn't doesn't benefitfrom that either. So one of the
swaps is top ten protected, andnot only is it top ten protected,
the Thunder can only swap either withus or the Clippers. So in order

(18:38):
for the twenty twenty five swap togo to get put into place or for
the Rockets to lose value on it, the Rockets have to be world to
have a better pick than the Clippersand at the same time not have a
top ten pick. So this thisswap only happens, and looking at the
trajectory of the Clippers unless they treatfor James Hargen by twenty twenty five,

(19:00):
the only way the swap has anyvalue for the Thunder or makes Rockets lose
any value is it's a Thunder anda contender and the Clippers and the rock
and the Clippers are worse than theRockets are worse than the Clippers but not
enough to be a bottom ten seamin the league, and they don't jump
up in the lottery. So it'sthat there's a lot of conditions that the
twenty twenty five swap is probably notgonna happen, and even if it does,

(19:23):
the Rockets then have the object toswop whatever they get from that swap
with the Nets. Who are youknow, they have a lot of picks.
Who knows what you know? They'reone of the least predictable for instances
in the league right now. Whoknows what they'll be by twenty twenty five,
right So there's a lot has togo wrong for that swap to make
the Rockets lose any value. That'sbasically like having a for sround pick.

(19:45):
I would also mention that in thisarticle you can't at the same time say
the Rockets don't have picks in twentytwenty four and twenty twenty six for stround
picks and at the same time saythey only have second is they only have
seven second round picks, because ifthey don't have the first then they're going
the fourth sets that are contingent onthose first the Rockets are going to have

(20:07):
them, so you either take awaythe first or you take away the seconds.
You can take away both, andthat's something that is not really qualified
in the article. And then thelast thing that I will mention is for
what matters, which is straight value. If you are trading for the start,
which is what the Rockets and mostof the teams at the top,
in the top ten of this ofthis ragging would want to do. The
fact that the Rockets don't own theirown picks, and I mentioned this in

(20:30):
an R and B episode is avery good thing because imagine when we were
trading with the Nets, which isnot exactly you know, a perfect example,
but imagine, I mean, imagineif you were a team trying to
trade with the Rockets, right andyou have a Star and you're trading them
to trading the Pets start to Houstonthe picks that the Rockets have their own

(20:52):
picks, they don't really interest youthat much because while the Rockets and are
going to have a start, sothey're going to be better, and I
also have plenty of young talents wouldbe different from what the Nets are in
which after that starts start to start, you're trading away, it gets worse
and ages Rockets still will have youngtalent to carry through, and you likely
won't get much of a payoff fromthose picks until you know the fifth or

(21:15):
the sixth of the second team.And so the fact that the Rockets have
picks from the nets in the tradepackage for a star is really valuable because
you're not getting the future from theteam of training to the start two.
You're getting the future of some otherteam which is not getting better, who
is not getting better from the traderthat you're just execute. So that's another

(21:36):
way to look at it, inwhich the Rockets might only have the you
know, the value of one pickper year, but when you look at
the quality of the picks and whatthey would mean a three package and the
circumstances of what it starts really willbe, they are actually a lot better
a lot better position than the teamightthe Magic who only has their own picks,

(21:56):
or Tea might the Celtics, whois a contender who shouldn't shouldn't be
this high at all, or likethe Grizzlies, who has picks coming from
I think it swaps between teams likethe Suns and themselves, and I think
I'm not sure how the Wizards arein there, but I'm not sure how
they you know, tie into it. I think the Wizards probably get the
first the best pick, and thenthe Grizzlies get to get the second best

(22:18):
because it's from the Brazinga's markets smarttrade, just a selling trade from the
Wizards, so they likely got youknow, value from that, not penalized
from it. So just looking throughthese teams, teams like the Pacers who
have you know, just and andyou know draft assets record through the next
seven years, or the Celtics thesame thing, or the Magic that are
all ahead of the Rockets, youknow all. I think, at least

(22:41):
until the Pelicans, I think youcould easily make the argument which seventh so
I said I didn't agree with Ifrom seven, I would agree with seven.
You could make a legit argument thatRockets have as good of a of
a draft you know, I'm notremember where the draft treasure chest or whatever
it is. Yeah, yeah,the draft outlook they have as good as

(23:02):
the draft out look as any ofthese teams. But it says it takes
a little bit of digging into itand figuring out what the exact protections are
and what you know, because nowadaysswaps and trades and b games are so
aware of all the possibilities that there'sa lot of nu ones to just a
single for strong pick. I mean, look at the twenty five swap,
but I just talked about to beginmy argument, there's a lot of nuance

(23:25):
that comes into that. There's fourteams involved, right, and and it's
and it's not your uthful swap,but it's just a straight up swop.
No, the team has to pickbetween two of the shopping between two teams,
and the Drockets can take that pickand stop it again. And so
when you look at it through youknow more in depth. Lens, I
think twelve is is pretty severely underratingwhat the Rockets curl they have. Yeah,

(23:48):
I agree, and it closed theloop on the whole protections angle.
The key word that I keep comingback to is optionality because, and in
fairness to Eric pink Gets a BleacherReport, it's very difficult with the complexities
at play with when we're talking protectionsand swap rights, to do this for
all thirty teams is nearly impossible.So while we're saying there's some nuance with

(24:12):
the Rocket situation isn't captured here,There probably is with other teams as well.
We just happen to know Houston situationbecause that's what we're experts in,
that's what we obsess over every singleday. So not trying to tear down
their work, it's just trying topresent the Houston side and why there's a
bit more optimism than just strictly lookingat the years might lead you to believe.

(24:34):
And as far as the protections,again it comes down to optionality because
when you have not just top fourin twenty twenty four and twenty twenty six,
but top ten in twenty twenty five. The downside of top four with
the revised waiting for the lottery,even if you're one of the worst three
teams, it's almost fifty fifty asto whether you'll actually be in the top

(24:57):
four, but top t you canalmost totally control that. You can get
yourself into the top ten pretty damneasily, and so that's important where it's
not just a matter of if yourteam underperforms. Even great teams like the
twenty twenty Warriors have a year wherethere's just a ton of injuries, crazy

(25:18):
stuff happens, and it just makessense to bottom out. And so because
of these protections, the Rockets dohave an avenue in which they can,
on top of the assets they cancertainly get from the Nets, they can
also maximize their own draft capital,even though I think most of the league
thinks it's headed to Oklahoma City overthe next three years. And so the

(25:41):
fact that the Rockets have that optionin their back pocket is very useful when
we talk about worst case scenarios,and it gives them, in my opinion,
a pretty high floor when we talkabout their outlook, because even if
things don't work out as well aswe would like them too in terms of
the immediate on court play for theRockets this season, there are some backup
plants they can pivot too because ofthese protections, and so because of that,

(26:02):
their draft outlook overall it's pretty damngood, especially when you combine it
with the obvious instability and uncertainty withthe Brooklyn Nets. The other angle I
want to explore, and Powell,you already touched on this, but in
terms of the trade market, Ericmentions this in the first two paragraphs of
History. Draft picks are arguably thecore currency of NBA team building. You

(26:22):
want to trade for an All Star, better have a ton of first rounders
and throw in some pick swaps whileyou're at it. Need to dump unwanted
players on less than friendly contracts thatwill cost at least some seconds, if
not at first, depending on howmuch it's left on the deal in price
in years. That's true, however, from a practical standpoint, especially when

(26:42):
we're talking about star trades, andthat's what we know the Rockets are going
to be in the market for now. They've got this young core in place,
they've got tradeable salary. We dida recent episode talking about Joel Embiid
if he asks out, and there'salready some early indications, according to Kelly
Echo of The Athletic, that theKnicks and Rockets would be two teams he's
interested in, and Powelo you madethe verious new point that because of that,

(27:04):
the Rockets might get him in aslightly cheaper price than many around the
league think, because while there areteams that have more picks than the Rockets
to throw at the Sixers if theywere hypothetically to trade in bad would the
Thunder or Jazz really be willing todo that if Imbid did not want to
play there, and similarly, wouldthe Sixers be willing to trade and bead

(27:30):
against his will after all of hisyears of service to the organization. That's
something that rarely happens. Typically,stars we've seen this time and time again
get to where they want to gothe same way. We heard for months
when James Harden asked out in latetwenty twenty that the Nets were at the
top of his less possibly the Sixersas well, and a lot of fans

(27:51):
went through the exercise of all,the Rockets don't have to trade him there.
Ultimately they did. It's a combinationof other teams outside of those two
didn't want to trade what it tookto maximize their offers to the Rockets,
and I think the Rockets wanted todo right by Harden. Paulo, I
know you wanted to jump in,yeah, And I just wanted to also
bring up that it's not just upto the Sixers too, and that people

(28:14):
miss this. A lot of peoplethink, oh, they won't trade and
be to a team that he doesn'twant to go because they want to do
right by him or whatever, becausemaybe that's what happens in the other Americans,
or maybe that's what happens in theMLB and not the MLB, but
in football or whatever it is.In the NBA, you have to trade
them to one of their destinations becauseno team is going to give up the
type of assets that you need inthe trade for t l MP unless they

(28:37):
know and be it's okay going there. So if if it goes full James
Harden and tells every team but youknow, Rockets in the next that he
doesn't want to go there. It'snot that the Sixers would trade them somewhere
else, because they probably would,But no other team is going to give
up the assets that they need ormake a competitive offer. If and be
saying, hey, if you tradefor me, I'm going to get then

(28:59):
I'm going to demand the trade again. Right. So it's that's people miss
that part that angle a lot,and they think it's just up to the
team. No, you know,there's two sides of the trade that it
needs to be someone willing to giveup the assets. You know. For
example, there are rumors that thethat the Calves or the Celtics were at
certain points wanting to trade for JamesSardon when he was in Houston. Well,

(29:21):
if James doesn't want to go there, even though the Calves clearly have
the assets, they're not going totrade for it, you know, just
because if nnabat start rate scenario right, okay, seems a lot of Sames,
they have a lot of assets thatyou know, they have a start
in Shay. If Abe doesn't wantto go there, okay, see's offer
is not going to be those assetsgonna be a lot worse because that's what's
worth. They will only be givingup what the risk of them coming in

(29:42):
and asking out again is. Sothey're not going to give up, you
know, a bunch of strong picksand a bunch of and quits for a
player doesn't one that doesn't want tobe there, and the Sixers won't be
able to use those them as levelgeleader. Because of that exact thing,
everything of us in the league knows. This is not the first This is
not the nbase first rodeo dealing withthe starts. Read if it happens now
this supper multiple times. There's areason that teams or that superstar players always

(30:07):
find their way to the teams thatthey want. There's one exception, I
think in this entire time, whichis Kawhi Leonard. But look at what
the Spurs did for Kawhi to lendwith the Raptors when he wanted good to
lad. They took, you know, a package that was basically ten cents
hundred dollars when they probably could havegotten a lot better from La. But
it was just Pop saying, hey, I mean, you know, I'm
not gonna I have enough power,I have nothing once within the organization,

(30:30):
I think, I mean he isbasically the Spurs right that I'm going to
spike Kawhile Lennard. I'm going totake a worst trade offer and send them
to a place where he doesn't wantto go. And for the Raptors,
it makes sense because it's just halfa season of contract. Even if Kawhile
leaves afterwards, it ended up workingout for them and be this four years
left. He wants to make thosefour years hell on Earth for whatever team

(30:52):
trades for him he can and thatteam is not going to give be giving
up the assets that deality needs.And sence that you know, there's only
one Pop in this league. Ivery much doubt there's any other team in
the league besides maybe pat Riley,who is in a position to trade someone
for less than their value just despitethe player. So right, most gems

(31:14):
will get fired if they do thatbecause they don't have the beat of standing
within the team. So it's just, you know, just to finish the
point, it's not just the teamtrading the player away, the team treading
for the players so needs to beon board and giving up those assets.
The way I look at it,there's a pretty clear template that's been established
for these types of deals in whichplayers aren't and this is where agents come

(31:38):
into play. They're not going,for the most part, to ask teams
for destinations that are comically unrealistic.Let's use Zion as another example. A
star that you hear rumblings could bedistrautled enough to potentially ask for a move
in the coming years, or maybethe Pelicans explore it for their own reasons.

(31:59):
I don't think you're going to hearZion and his camp and the agents
understand what the Pelicans would need.That's where that comes into play. I
don't think you're gonna hear Zion leakthe Phoenix Suns as a destination, because
how would he get there? TheSuns are cashed out of draft assets are
actually dead last, and this EricPincus article at Lechure Report for good reason,

(32:20):
because they cashed out all their assetsfor the Kevin Durant trade. And
they also don't have a ton inthe way of tradeable salary that would make
sense for the Pelicans either, Andso there's sort of a template. These
discriminal stars. They only leak teamsthat are somewhat realistic. They have enough
draft assets to at least be somewhattempting to the team trading the superstar.

(32:42):
And similarly, they have an enoughtradable salary or something close to it that
you can at least have a discussion. It's not just comically bad. So
on the player's end there's sort ofthat initial bar, and then from the
team's end, the parameter is sortof, let's get a full draft cycle.
In terms of the hardened trade involvingthe Rockets and the Nets, the

(33:05):
Rockets got again the maximum seven years, four picks and three swap rights,
or I think it was actually fourswap rights in three picks. Every other
year, the same thing happened withKevin Durant going from the Nets to the
Suns. The same thing happened withRudy Gobert going from the Jazz to the
Timberwolves. There's a pretty clear template. And even though in those situations you
could honestly ask the question, Okay, because you're sending a superstar to the

(33:30):
team, and you brought up thispoint earlier, Palo, are you diminishing
the expected return of those draft assets. A lot of people tried to talk
down Roffel Stone in twenty twenty one, saying, yeah, the Rockets got
all these unprotected assets from the Nets, but are those actually going to be
good? Because then Nets have asuper team between harden kd and Kyrie.
Of course, just a little overtwo years later, they've all gone their
separate ways and Rafael Stone looks alot more astute. And so that's part

(33:53):
of why you go after seven yearsof assets, because it's hard to keep
a team together for that long andyou hope that at least by the back
end of that window that there's goingto be some slippage. Now, the
Rockets do have some upside. Asyou mentioned earlier, the Rockets can actually
offer upside on the front end,and so because of that, it's less
theoretical and there should be a slightbump for that, but regardless, there

(34:14):
does seem to be a template thatyou can overcome it, especially if the
picks are unprotected. And we're talkingabout swap rights as well. And I
think that's important to note in thisdiscussion because within certain parameters, again,
the Star leaks destinations that are realisticto the team, and the team is

(34:37):
willing to accept a reasonable deal,maybe not the greatest deal in NBA history
from a value perspective, but enoughthen in most cases they find a way
to meet in the middle and adeal gets done. And the reason that's
important to note is that where theRockets are at a disadvantage in terms of

(34:59):
their viability as a trade suitor comparedto Oklahoma City, Utah, San Antonio
teams that can just stack all thesefirst round picks, it's rare that you
see that many picks go out ina Superstar trade. Anyway, the most
we've seen to this point is basicallyone full cycle. When I say full

(35:19):
cycle, I mean the seven yearsyou're allowed to trade picks and swap rights.
That's the most we've seen. Soin terms of these other teams being
able to offer more, it's moreof a theoretical exercise. In practice,
I don't think you're going to seethem outbid the Rockets with all of those
assets, especially if, as youmentioned, the player doesn't want to go
to Oklahoma City or Utah. AndI think that's where a lot of people

(35:43):
who read these articles they want tothink that it's all based on equity.
And in theory, the teams thathave the most first round picks either they've
gone through the most pain to getthem, they've had to lose superstars,
or they've just had really astute management. But you can argue that, Okay,
these guys deserve the next stars,these teams that is, and because
they have picks, they're in betterposition to get them. And conversely,
for the team that's going to losea superstar, yeah, you'd love to

(36:06):
trade them to Oklahoma City because thatcan maximize your potential return. However,
in reality, we know how theNBA works. It's a player driven league,
and so because of that, it'snot as simple as saying the team
with the most assets is going toget that player. It's a marriage of
what makes sense for the team andalso what the player wants to do.
So it's not so much that youhave to outbid. If you're a team

(36:28):
like the Rockets, it's that youhave and you made this point with a
med Pallo, it's you have tooutbid teams that he is willing to go
to, because otherwise it's not goingto make sense for a team like Oklahoma
City or Utah to cash in allthose assets. And so that's where I
think nationally people look at the stockpilesthat teams like the Thunder and the Spurs

(36:49):
and the Jazz have accumulated, andthey look at it through the wrong lens.
It's not so much, in myopinion, that those teams are planning
on trading for a superstar. I'msure they like having the door open for
that, but I think on somelevel the reason they're going down that road
they know they're not a particularly bigfree agent draw or trade draw. When
teams like the Thunder or Spurs havecontenders, it's because generally they've home grown

(37:15):
their talent. Think of the Spurswith Tim Duncan and David Robinson and Tony
Parker and Manu Genobley and Kawhi Leonard. Think of the Thunder with obviously k
D and James Harden and Russell Westbrook. All of those were homegrown guys that
they drafted, and because of that, they're more likely to stay long term
in one of the league's smaller markets, and so, in my opinion,

(37:37):
you stockpile those picks because it givesthem the most chances, the most bites
at the apple, to use theanalogy we use earlier at getting a high
pick and just getting first round talentsin general, to the point where you
hope that some years the lottery luckgoes your way. Certainly did for the
Spurs this year with Weimby, andother years, maybe you end up getting
Kawahi at fifteen, the way theydid all those years years ago to set

(38:00):
up their last title of this recentlycompleted dynasty. I think that's the way
they're looking at these future war chests. It's not so much that they want
or expect to make a mega tradeinvolving most of those picks. No,
they want the door open to that, but I think on some level they
recognize that it's unlikely. I thinkit's more from their standpoint as a small

(38:21):
market team, it makes sense forthem to do everything they can to maximize
their draft odds in every which waybecause that's how a team like that generally
builds a contender, and so theway that's relevant to the Rockets. To
bring this full circle, it's notso much when we talk about this whole
idea of trading for a star,it's not really a scale. It's not

(38:45):
that literal. It's more a questionof yes or no. Do you have
enough assets to where a deal isreasonable should a player want to go to
your organization a star player. Thatis my opinion. The answer for the
Rockets as yes, and that's allthat matters. Now. I will say

(39:05):
they have less of a buffer thana team like certainly the Spurs or the
Thunder. So if the Rockets makeone of these big trades burning beat type,
you need to make sure it's theright guy, because if you cash
in those assets and it turns outthe guy isn't the fit you envisioned,
then you won't be able to doit again, and with that probably goes
the rest of your championship window.So you do have a little bit less

(39:28):
of a buffer, but in termsof being able to trade for a star,
it's not so much. Well,the Rockets have x percent chance of
doing so because they have xtraft assetsbut they're probably behind these other teams.
That's not really how it works.It's more a yes or no question to
me, do you have enough?And also do you have enough tradable salary
to where you are viable to theteam offloading a star. And while the

(39:51):
margin is a little less now thatthe twenty twenty one through twenty twenty three
window has passed, it's not likethe Rockets are absolutely loaded with draft capital.
They don't have enough. So fromthe standpoint of a trade, to
me, that's the healthy way tolook at it. It's not so much
about how the Rockets stack up.It's more about do they have enough that
if Adell and b type list themthat it's realistic to the other team.

(40:13):
And as I see it, theanswer is still yes on that front.
Yeah, I just I think Iagree with most of what you said.
I would just add that. Sothe buffer is important, but the price
for a start A lot of thetimes change has very dumb the team,
and it kind of meets what youwere saying. But for example, it

(40:35):
depends on how big your buffer is, because if your buffer is one or
two extra for stround picks, andmore likely than not, you're going to
have to give those up, andbecause you have them all right for the
nets, for example, but it'sgave for the clips something. When they
trade for teams at first time around, well they only trade for them.
What's for them to trade them turnthem away? They gave up basically everything

(40:55):
they had, and if they hada couple more for shrunk picks, the
rockets would have held out until theygave up those firstround picks as well.
So the buffer only to me,the buffer only matters when it's a pretty
big buffer, when it's like,okay see, because okay, see,
when when they trade for a star, they're not going to need to give
up all of their picks, right, They're going they're going to keep a
good clunk of them because they haveso many. But if the differences between

(41:17):
having you know, a default numberof picksically as you know, seven in
seven years or having you know,nine in seven years, more likely than
not, it's not going to makea difference because if the start is good
enough, you're going to have togive them all up. So after you
get to that threshold, there's there'sa bit of an interval where having more

(41:39):
or less assets or the quality ofthem doesn't really change much unless unless the
only difference it makes is between teamstrying to trade for the same player,
right, not about whether you're ableto trade for the player or not,
as as pertaining to how many assetsyou have, right, So that that's

(42:00):
the only thing that I would commentbeyond what you said, is that even
even amongst teams that are able todo it, the price in the support
of the same star may be differentfor different teams because you know in these
trades and when not so much inthe position that the Rockets are in because
they're rebuilding, so they likely havea supposed assets after trading for a start,

(42:22):
but more amongst contenders. Right.But if between the Celtics and the
Heat, right, the Heat havea couple of years and are compromised because
they will pick two o k seeand so they can likely give up two
less picks, and then the Celticscap amongst picks and swaps, it likely
doesn't make a difference. But becauseif the Superstars the mainised straight to the

(42:43):
Celtics, Celtics are part of thedestination, those two extra picks are likely
going to be going to the teamwith the superstar anyways, because while both
have what's theoretically enough for a star. Even though it's not exactly the value
that you'd need to pay for astart, the gap isn't big enough that
a team just accept the trade withoutgiving up everything you have, Just like
the Nets. The bar to whatthe trade value was for James Sarden was,

(43:07):
well, what can the Nets giveup? And the Nets give up
everything they had, and that's whatthe price was. If the Nets had,
you know, a couple of extrafirst round picks, the price would
have been what the Rocket's got plustwo first round picks. But they didn't,
and they were the only ones,and that package without those extra two
for stround picks was still better thanwhatever Philly was offering, so it was
enough, but the Nets had twomore for stround picks. I would I

(43:29):
would have guessed that raf Alston wouldhave held out for a month more or
two months more, until the Netseventually came and give up this as well,
because they knew they were getting goodvalue for an MVP candidate, right
that A little you know, thosecouple of firstround picks wouldn't have made the
difference, and ultimately I don't believeit would have held up a deal.

(43:49):
So yeah, that's you know,I kind of made a big arguments out
of something pretty small. Faired up. Well, that's what we do here,
and quite frankly, we needed tobuild time during this very slow period
of the NBA off season. Anyway, before we wind down, I want
to get to a couple more quickhitting topics, one of them being the
ongoing FIBA World Cup over in Asia. That's what limited basketball we have right

(44:14):
now. And the Rockets do havea difference maker, Dylan Brooks starting for
Team Canada, and I want tohighlight how impressive this has been, not
just for Dylan but for Canada asa whole. Obviously they're led by Shay
Gil just Alexander, but they havea pretty stacked roster with NBA talent.
They've got Dylan, They've got KellyOlenick Rockets legend. They've got Lou Jorge,

(44:34):
although I think he's been injured inthe last couple of games. I
have to look back. They havea couple of others I'm blanking on oh
RJ. Barrett, that's another one. So it's a pretty strong roster and
they have come out firing. Theywon their group for the first time ever.
They advanced out of the group stagefor the first time since nineteen ninety
eight, and they've done it indominating fashion, including their opener against France,

(44:59):
which is that was actually a gamein which I went back and looked
the Canadians were slight underdogs and theywon by thirty. That's a French team
that has NBA players, obviously,Rudy Gobert, Nick Batoum, Evan Fournier.
There's talent there and Canada just absolutelyoverwhelmed them. They won their next
two games with relative ease as well. And Dylan's been very efficient. Obviously,

(45:21):
he brings defense, he brings leadership. He's talked about wanting to set
a tone that they're for real.You love seeing the intensity in terms of
the shooting, which is always thequestion, not so much the shot,
but is he willing to take theright shots the shot selection. To this
point, through three games, he'saveraging nine points or nine point three points
per game on sixty five percent,shooting forty four percent from three nearly three

(45:45):
assists per game, two steals pergame, but the most important number to
me, Paulo above all else he'sonly shooting five point seven attempts per game
in those twenty three point two minutes, which is fifth on Canada's roster.
That's a big statement on a teamwhere you know there's NBA names, but

(46:06):
Sga is the only true star,the only clear guy that is I would
say a tear above Dylan in termsof his status in the NBA hierarchy.
So for Dylan to take less thansix shots per game while being a starter
by playing nearly twenty five minutes pergame, to me, that tells you
that on some level he gets it. And some of these concerns, well,

(46:30):
number one, you know some ofthese interviews. People make a big
deal out of interviews and anonymously sourcedreports about what he may or may not
want. First off, it's alwaysactions over words. People give these interviews
for all sorts of reasons to pushagendas, to build their brand. A
lot of the stuff that Dylan saysabout Lebron James trying to build that so

(46:52):
called rivalry there, it's just gettinghis name out there. At the end
of the day, if it doesn'timpact the on court product or how he
plays, what does it matter.So I would say in terms of some
of these reports that we've seen ofoh, he might want a bigger role
than what he had in Memphis,And how is he going to adjust to
a Houston team in which there isno John Morant, there is no establish

(47:12):
alpha. Is he just going torun him up and try to jack up
fifteen or twenty shots per game?I would say his performance on this Canada
team, which is trying to winevery single game, tells you that he
gets it in terms of what hisoptimal usage should be. In general,
I would tell people, not juston this subject, that many others don't
put as much relevance on media quotesor anonymously sourced leaks as most people,

(47:37):
at least on NBA Twitter seem todo. There's so many things that go
into those that ultimately mean not muchof anything. We're talking about the actual
on court performance. Look for actions, not words, and his actions in
this case suggest that he gets itas far as how he should be used,
what his optimal usage is. That'swhat I'm taking out of these three

(47:58):
games. Obviously there's gonna be biggergames had the competition is going to go
up a notch, so we'll seeif it continues. But in my opinion,
so far, so good. Thelast thing I'll throw out as far
as comparisons to what was going onin Memphis, I would also note that
Memphis had a pretty unusual set ofcircumstances last year, with the combination of

(48:19):
a contending team really second in theWest the last couple of years, yet
losing John Morant, their superstar toan almost unprecedented situation when we talk about
the repeat instances of guns on socialmedia and the investigations, that was an
extremely unusual set of circumstances. Andwhen you combine that with a team that

(48:40):
has high expectations, it's sort ofthe perfect recipe for the veterans on that
team, Guys that have a lotof pride to perhaps try and do too
much. They put it on theirshoulders, be it their play on the
floor or their interviews off the floor. They think they have to do things
to pomp and sate for this trainwreck that's going on in other areas of

(49:05):
the organization. And so I wouldagain take everything that happened with the Grizzlies
with a grain AsSalt. Based onthat, I would give him the opportunity
for a fresh start with a newcoach and a new set of circumstances,
with the Rockets. And so tothis point, again it's a small sample.
The World Cup is not the NBA. I understand that, but in
terms of what we can analyze thesethree games, it seems pretty encouraging that

(49:29):
he gets what his optimal role shouldbe. Should also point out by the
way that Canada is better than plustwenty five per game in the minutes that
Dylan is playing. So it's stronglycorrelated with their team's success. It's not
like any of this is empty caloriesby any means. He's a big factor
in their wins. He's guarding thebest players on the other team, he's
doing the little things, he's settingthe right tone and so to me,

(49:50):
small sample, Gotta continue watching overthe coming weeks. But so far,
so good. That's my thoughts onDylan Brooks. Anything I'm missing Pello,
Yeah, I'll just add that whendon't we look at the Make Cup of
can of this team, right,they have they have Shade, they have
r J. Barrett, Kelly OlnikBlackfall is not really an offensive player,
but but you get you get whatI'm going with this. It's also a
team with a lot of a lotof TALTA offensive players, but none of

(50:15):
which I mean, besides Shay obviously, none of which are you know,
a clear step above what Dylan Brooksmay think of himselves. Right, just
like within the rock with the Rockets, that there's a lot of offensive players
with the Rockets, but besides preventLea, probably there's no one that you
could clearly put above what Dylan Brooksmay think of himself or the perception of

(50:37):
these players around the league. Right, there's no clear stars, there's no
It's a very similar team. Andeven within this context, he still played
this role. I think it showsthat he's willing to do it for the
betterment of the team, right whenwhen winning is the priority. And I
think, I mean, to me, the thing that makes me the most
optimistic. You know, I'm stillanother fan of the signing, but part

(50:59):
of what makes me optimistic is,hey, he got a four year deal,
you know, the last year.The way the way his career went,
he had two years his first heI think he was a second round
pick. I'm a mistaken I canconfirm, yep. And so he you
know, he had to Earnest stuckhis second contract two years in because he

(51:20):
didn't have a think like getting hisspecial type deal, so he was extended.
You know, I think after thethird year. After the third year,
I apologized and so he was kindof making his identity within this league
throughout this time the last three years. And you know, we know how
players are when they're playing for abig deal, right that there's the epitome
of it with with the Sun WhiteSide, but you know, guys trying

(51:42):
to do too much when they're tryingto secure the buy like what probably would
be the biggest back of their lives, which least that third contract or that
contract that they signed when they're goinginto their prime. Right, Dillon Brooks
is now secured in a deal that'snot going to change until he's thirty two
years old. By then everybody inthe league will know who he is.
By then, he you know,his status will be completely settled. You

(52:06):
know, he'll be probably with anyGreenside player. And so now there's nothing
to prove for him anymore or thefair least for the next couple of years,
so he can focus on just what'sbetter for the team. And what
he's doing for Canada shows me thathe knows what's better for him. It's
not you know, he probably hasyou know, a perception of himself better

(52:27):
than than what the public perception ofhim is as an offensive player. I
mean, most most guys probably do. Yeah. But at the same time,
this shows me that he also hasa perception that the spoyers are better
than him are doing that and he'sable to play that role. And it's
not a pride thing, right.This leads me to believe this is this
is probably his obstuities. It's probablya money thing. It's probably a you

(52:52):
know, let me stand out soyou know we're going to get that pay
day exactly. And so he's gotthe pay so he can let and go
back into more traditional team friendly patternsexactly, and hopefully hopefully that's the case.
Right. It's obviously just three games, but you know, in the
World Cup, every game matters unlessyou're already qualified, which I'm not sure

(53:14):
if Canada was, but I usuallysometimes by the third game you might already
be qualified and so it might notmatter. But I don't think that's that
was the case here. And soif he knows how to play that role,
he's worth that money. And Imean one of the positive things of
Rockets having overpaid for him as faras years ago. Is for the first
couple of years, he has nothingto worry about it, and he came

(53:35):
strictly focused on basketball and he doesn'thave to worry about his next contract for
a while. Yeah, so Iguess I didn't never thought of this angle
before. But if you're trying toget the best out of dealing Brooks and
trying to kind of change his role, one of the ways of doing that
that's going to speak louder than anyother thing, than any coach can,
than any teammates can, than anyyou know, trying to win. Factor

(53:58):
can is the money. The moneyhe always fixed louder and the money is
secured for the next few years,and so he doesn't have to worry about
that, and hopefully he's you know, motivated to play the role that heets
need him to play. Yeah.Good point. You can show him how
much you believe in this particular roleby what you've paid him, And so
I think that makes it all theeasier for him to buy in on the

(54:20):
fact that, yeah, he isbeing valued and that it's not like he
has to play to prove himself.No, he already has proven himself.
This role is enough. That's whythe Rockets brought him in on a deal
that so many teams around the leagueapparently believed was an overpay, and so
maybe that gives him some peace ofmind, in addition to some of the
circumstances not being quite as exaggerated asthings were in Memphis over the final few

(54:45):
months of last season. Final pointI want to get to before we close
out our podcast. There's been somemovement with former Rockets prospects Usman Garuba and
Ti Ti Washington in recent days.Both were offloaded from the Rockets to the
Hawks to salary cap room for BrookLopez that the Rockets ended up not even
needing because he renegged on what wasbelieved to be an agreement and the Rockets.

(55:08):
This has been covered at Nauseam.We've talked about it in our archives
here at the loggerline. The Rocketswanted to honor their word, even though
Lopez didn't honor his. We candebate the merits of it, but this
is the path they chose. Ultimately, I think they hope that the goodwill
that that sort of thing banks withagents and other teams around the league is
worth more than what you lose.When we're talking about a couple of second

(55:30):
round picks, which was the costto dump, especially on day one,
and free agency had to pay abit more of a premium due to the
time crunch to offload those contracts ofGuruba and Tie Tie both are guaranteed based
on them being first round picks forat least a few years. So since
then, the Hawks, who clearlytook them on for the two second round
picks, then offloaded them to OklahomaCity a week or two later. They

(55:53):
paid just one second round pick todo so, because again there's less time
pressure, but clearly they reviewed inthat trade as negative assets. And after
that happened, there were some reportsboth in the original story from WOJ and
then you heard some follow up reportingfrom Oklahoma City that oh the Thunder they
really believed in Usman Garuba and thathe wasn't used properly by the Rockets.

(56:15):
And the initial story from WOJ hadthe line that my opinion was clearly fed
from the Thunder that Oklahoma City couldlook to repackage them for more assets down
the line. This is another situationwhere follow actions over words. I guess
if it was just the Rockets,maybe you could make a case that Rafael

(56:35):
Stone didn't do his due diligence.But in this case it's not just Houston,
Atlanta did the same due diligence,and they also had a premium,
had to pay a premium, thatis, to offload those two guys.
So the idea that multiple NBA frontoffices paid a premium to offload these guys
when in reality there was a teamthat was willing to look at them as

(56:57):
a neutral to positive asset just nevermade any sense at all. That was
always wishful thinking. And yet becausepeople have agendas, either they really like
those prospects themselves, or perhaps theydidn't like either Raffel Stone or whoever the
GM and Atlanta is I'm blanking onhis name right now, it was very
easy to sort of believe the narrativethat, oh, these teams didn't know

(57:17):
what they were doing, and theThunder would eventually trade them positive value and
the Rockets would look stupid. That'snot what happened. The Rockets or the
Thunder, excuse me, ended upwaving both of those Rockets prospects, which
shows you they couldn't get positive value. That's why they let them go for
absolutely nothing and ate the money.Usbun Guruba remains a free agent Ti Tie
Washington and actually signed a two waycontract with the Milwaukee Bucks today, which

(57:40):
is a lot more team friendly thanthe guaranteed deal that guys get when they
are first round draft picks. Andso this isn't to give the Rockets at
total pass because well, look,it's never fun to say after two years
in Guruva's case, or just oneyear in Thai Tie's case, that this
guy probably isn't going to work outand that you missed on this pick.

(58:01):
But we've talked about it before.Guys in the twenties rarely work out in
the NBA. This is not theNFL. They expected output from picks in
that range is not that high.You're going to miss on a few of
those. Same could be said forJosh Christopher, who the Rockets offloaded as
part of their salary shedding deals earlyin free agency to bring in guys like
Fred Wnvliet and Dylan Brooks. Sothe projected output from those pick values was

(58:24):
never that high to begin with.In the case of Tie Tie, the
way I heard it went down,they actually initially had picked twenty six from
the Manphicks that was the Christian Woodtrade. They moved back from twenty six
to twenty nine, picked up acouple of second round picks for doing that,
and they were actually trying to moveback again from twenty nine until I

(58:45):
think maybe a future year because theyalready had the two second round picks,
or maybe even more second round picks. I guess you can never have enough
of those. Based on at leastthe Thunders approached to management. But ultimately
what ended up happening, the Rocketsjust ran out of time on the clock
and Tie Tie was the best playeron the board, but they were never
that bullish on him to begin with. They always saw him as a solid

(59:06):
but ultimately flawed prospect the way mostare in that range of the draft,
and turns out, at least tothis point, it doesn't look like he's
going to hit. The same couldbe said for Usman Garuba, and yeah,
on some level, I guess youcan say it's a black mark for
Rafael Stone. But conversely, andwe've covered this in the past, even
though he hasn't hit well in thetwenties, guys like Garuba, Tie Tie,
and Josh Christopher. Okay, welook through the ten through twenty range,

(59:29):
all Prince Huanoon and try Eason havewell outkicked their coverage in terms of
production relative to projections for those draftslots, And to this point, after
winning MVP of Summer League, itlooks like Cam Whitmore at twenty looks like
a steal as well. So evenif the Rockets aren't hitting these picks in
the final ten, then in themiddle ten the first round, I think
it's been offset and then sub andultimately in terms of the implications for the

(59:52):
Rockets and this drafting window for RaphaelStone at the peak of the tanking era,
it's sort of what we already knew. It's going to depend on those
guys at the top. Yeah,you can say they've missed at the bottom
with Usman and Tie Tie and whoam I forgetting Josh Christopher and they've hit
in the middle Shongoon easton them.We hope Kim Whitmore and then ultimately Jalen
Green, Jabari Smith, Junior Amand Thompson. Do those lottery picks hit

(01:00:15):
to the extent that you would expectto, given how rare it is to
draft that high. If they do, then Rafael Stone's gonna come out of
this looking really good. And theRocket's gonna have a contender, and if
they don't, then that's on himfor missing those picks. But we've known
that throughout. Ultimately, his legacyfor this era is going to depend those
picks high in the first round.Hopefully they work out. Jabari Smith in

(01:00:36):
particular, is trending well after thisoffseason. I think you can say the
same for Jalen I'm in look greatin Summer League, although we only saw
him from one game due the anklesprain, and it's a bit early in
his career anyway as a rookie.But yeah, Ultimately, for Rafael Stone,
I think his success when it comesto did he win or lose this
tanking era is going to depend onthose picks, and we already knew that.
So I just think a lot ofpeople were reaching for takes with usbon

(01:00:59):
and tie tie, and this remindsyou that it's good to again follow actions
over words. It was never realistic, in my opinion, to think that
the Thunder We're going to get assetsfor those guys, both the Rockets and
the Hawks Tride. The reality isthat they weren't positive assets. They're probably
going to be busted. It happens, it's got great, but ultimately the

(01:01:19):
Rockets have hits and other slots thatcan overcome that, and as far as
the overall success, it's going tocome down to those high picks. So
I just think that, you know, not trying to lecture too much,
but just sometimes it's very easy tomake a mountain out of a mole hill
during the NBA off season, especiallybecause that was sort of tied to some
other bigger deals and so it canbe very easy to try and put everything

(01:01:40):
together. But ultimately, at theend of the day, I think we
can have some peace of mind.The Rockets did not misread the trade market.
Those guys just were negatively valued assetsbecause not just Houston, not just
Atlanta, most NBA teams don't seethem as being worth the contracts they were
on. That's the reality. It'sa deeper NBA every year. That's why
you hear talk about expansion because thetalent pool is so deep, and ultimately,

(01:02:04):
in the years I had, youmay have more guys from the twenties
that end up playing their way outof their initial contracts before they're up.
That's just the new reality of theNBA. And so again not trying to
spend it as some win for RaffaelStone, because even if he read the
market correctly at the time and theywere at are in fact negative assets on
those contracts, at the same time, he is the guy who made those

(01:02:25):
picks. I understand that it's fairto use that as a black mark,
but I think when you consider thecontext, ultimately it's not that big of
a deal, and so I thinkthat's a way to sort of put a
bow on that discussion from early July. How low is there anything you wanted
to add to that? Yeah,just that. I mean the perfect proof
of that is that I got sitingedtoday to a two way deal. He
couldn't even get a minimum, right, like a toy deal is the ultimate

(01:02:47):
team control deal because he's going tobe restricted at the end of the year,
is going to be not even havinga real roster spot. He's going
to be making whatever money it isthat's followed the minimum. You know that
in two ways are like guys thatare undrafted get to get to a roster
spot. But hey, I waskind of hopeful that Rockets could get one

(01:03:09):
of them back because they do haveone roster spot. You know, real
roster spot still available, which takesWe heard news I think from from Jonathan
Fagan that it might be Darius daysdown the line, and I kind of
favored Tide tie, not because Ilike him more, but because it seemed
like he left on better terms andit seemed like he was friends with a

(01:03:30):
lot of the team and he waslike really good with the group Gurupa had
a couple of I had tweets andin a couple of quotes about that were
not so that made me think thathe was not so happy with other Rockets
that have handled his development. Buthey, that I got signed then,
I mean, if GROUPA can't findthe place, I mean, he may

(01:03:50):
even go back to Europe. Whoknows. I'll take a shot at him
as a small wall five. Youknow he still I mean, he had
the breakout too the year last year, even it was a little volume.
So you're also dealing with the JacqueLandale injury heading in the training camp.
It's it's worth a shout and maybewith the Jocolande the injury, you can
convince them to take a deal withus. The Rockets do have their EMIL

(01:04:12):
still, so they could give themthe four year no minimum deals that's what
he needs, and he can,you know, mess with the guarantee the
amount the needs here to you know, to make it more enticed or less
entices. And my type atation,this is where I think they make the
first and the second year guarantee.So yeah, just as far as that
goes, I was surprised. Ithought it was a terrible deal at the
time. But if nobody valued themand they felt like they need to open

(01:04:33):
the roster space, I mean,I don't think it's a good move,
but it's more acceptable than I considerat the beginning. Yeah, that's the
nuance I'm trying to get at.It's not so much trying to say,
oh, this is the great dealof all time and the Rockets did we
understand why but pay a bit ofa premium two second round picks instead of
one due to the time emergency,which first struttingly, they didn't even end

(01:04:56):
up really needing since brook Lopez renaggedon his But again, we've gone through
that plenty of times in the past, or check out our archives if you
want that discussion. But the bottomline, it's not so much trying to
say that, oh, this dealis justified. It's a great deal.
No, it's just it's an understandabledeal. And so I think when you
look back a couple of months atwhat the discussions were like, we're approaching

(01:05:16):
the two month anniversary. I thinkhopefully now there's gonna be more calm,
level heads, not saying it's greatfor the Rockets, not saying that,
oh, these two first round picksultimately are washing out of the NBA potentially
after a year or two, notsaying that's wonderful. But at the end
of the day, it's not shocking. It's not a huge deal, it's
not a huge miss. It's notsomething you should be dramatically concerned about it,

(01:05:39):
especially with so many other positive thingsgoing on for this franchise, and
so hopefully, I think the rightway to look at it, it's a
mild annoyance. You can be alittle sad that those prospects aren't panning out,
but I don't think anyone should beenraged by it. I think that's
the right way to contextualize this movingforward, and what's that will bring this

(01:05:59):
episode to a close. We willbe back with more in the coming weeks,
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(01:06:24):
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