Battleground LIVE: The FINAL State of the Race w/Savage Rich Baris

Tonight on Battleground LIVE:

In the arena tonight: Rich Baris, Director of Big Data Poll and host of Inside the Numbers

-THE LAST SAVAGE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE ELECTION. Do NOT miss the full break down of the 2024 cycle and where the race stands less than a week from Election Day

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Warning. E'rerope about to enter the arena and join the
Battle to Save.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
America with your host Sean Carnell.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Good evening, America, Welcome to battle Ground Live. This is
the show where we kick ass, we take names, we
lock horns with the radical left. We never quit, we
never surrender. From sea to shining Sea and everybody in between.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
Welcome patriots on this glorious, glorious Savage Wednesday.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
Also, you have a new nickname, didn't you hear it?
I'm sure that you did. What's up, my fellow, pieces
of garbage? What's my fellow? You floating pieces of garbage? You?
So this comes on the heels, I mean of the
left calling us Obama calling us bitter clingers, we cling
to our guns and our bibles, and Hillary Clinton callelling

(01:00):
us deplorables. You ever notice how the left is constantly
rolling back the things that they say about us when
they just so happened to slip out publicly. They really
mean those things. That's how they really feel about us.
And now to Joe Biden, we're big, floating, floating, I guess,

(01:21):
piles of garbage. So of course listen, we've got savage
Rich Barris on deck. He's on deck, So make sure
you smash that like button, that little green thumb beneath
the video. Don't forget about official Sean Parnell dot com.
Don't forget about jumping over to my locals follow subscribe there.

(01:42):
If you can be building out some really cool stuff,
I'm going to talk to you about. Oh man, folks, listen,
Biden calling half the nation garbage? Yes, of course, but
also we got under a week to go in the
most important election of our lifetime. And this, ladies and gentlemen,

(02:03):
is the final Savage Wednesday prior to the election. Can
you believe that the final one? It feels like we've
been doing Oh my gosh, I can't believe how fast
the year has gone. Right, We started doing Savage Wednesday
a little under a year ago, and it is fast

(02:26):
become probably the most popular, if not one of the
most popular nights of Battleground Live. It's people look forward
to it. I get text messages and I get emails,
and I get people in the live chat super excited
about it. But this is the last one before election day.
So yeah, Biden called the nation half the nation garbage.

(02:48):
If you didn't hear it, already, which I'm sure you did.

Speaker 4 (02:51):
Listen now or Puerto Rico where I'm in my home
state of Delaware. They're good, decent, honorable people. The only
garbage I see floating now there is his supporters. His
demonizational scene is unconstable and it's not American.

Speaker 1 (03:09):
So Tim Walls was asked about that comment this morning.

Speaker 5 (03:13):
I want to put it into a larger context of
your recent comment comparing the Sunday Trump rally to a
Nazi rally, and I would also throw in there Obama's
bitter clingers, guns and religion comment from a while back,
the deplorable line from Hillary Clinton's campaign, and the way
that Democrats are seen by some voters has disrespecting them,
and I have to ask, does that undercut this closing

(03:35):
message of unity from your campaign?

Speaker 3 (03:39):
No, certainly not, and caging Listen, I'll show you all this,
this natural progression of things because the Democrats, Biden says
something batshit crazy, batshit crazy that by the way.

Speaker 1 (03:54):
Kamala gave her speech at the Ellipse yesterday in Washington, DC,
the same place that Donald Trump gave his January sixth speech.
I means she talked about all sorts of absurd, crazy bullshit.
That's not even the point. The point is the fact
that Biden called half the nation garbage completely sucked all
the air out of the room of a Kamala Harris's speech.

(04:16):
Nobody's even talking about that shit today. But the media
made a huge deal about an insult comedian who specializes
in roasting other people making a joke about Puerto Rico.
By the way, the America First crowd didn't like the joke.
They booed the joke, So kudos to those American patriots

(04:37):
for doing that. But I don't care. It's a joke, right,
It was a joke from a comedian. The media for
days like banged that drum. But here you have a
sitting president of the United States calling half the nation garbage.
Not only is it it's not only is it not crickets, right,
it is that they are all in on pretending like

(04:57):
it didn't happen. So listen to KJP. Just to dress
the President's comments yesterday referring to Trump's supper garbage, thanks.

Speaker 6 (05:08):
A couple of things.

Speaker 7 (05:09):
So just to clarify, he was not calling trump supporter's
garbage garbage.

Speaker 8 (05:15):
Icy float down. There's your supporters.

Speaker 7 (05:17):
Which is why he put out This is why he
wanted to make sure that we put out a statement
that clarified what he meant and what he was trying
to say.

Speaker 8 (05:27):
The only garbage icy float down there's your supporters.

Speaker 7 (05:30):
So just want to make that very clear for folks
who are watching.

Speaker 6 (05:33):
And I just want.

Speaker 7 (05:34):
To read that out to folks. So he was regarding
to the comedian and I quote, I refer to the
hateful rhetoric about Porto Rico spewed by Trump's supporter at
his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage, which is the
only word I can think of to describe it. His
demonization of Latino's is unconscionable. That's all I meant to

(05:59):
say the comment, the comments at the rally don't reflect who.

Speaker 6 (06:03):
We are as a nation.

Speaker 7 (06:05):
And to your question, your other question that you asked, No,
he does not view Trump's supporters or anybody who supports
Trump as garbage.

Speaker 6 (06:14):
That is not what he views.

Speaker 8 (06:17):
Not only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.

Speaker 1 (06:22):
He definitely said it, and the media, for the most part,
is giving him his flying cover for him. I am
convinced this is just one more data point in my theory,
it's well, it's not a theory. Biden hates Kamala. Joe
gotten an altercation with Kamala and her staff in the
White House. I know this is true, but I'm convinced
that Joe Biden. I mean, I oscillate back and forth

(06:45):
because I mean, the guy can't complete a sentence without
pooping his pants. So if that's the case, then is
he really cognitive enough to be have the cognitive capability
to strategize on a level that we're talking about. I
don't know, but guy clearly doesn't want Kamala to win.
I'm completely bought in on that hook line and sinker,

(07:05):
So okay, listen, I got Savage Rich Barris in the
waiting room before I get to him aviation or age
sixty four. Thank you for the rumble rant tip, he says,
when this show finally makes it big like you deserve,
don't forget this group of awesome people right here now.
You don't ever have to worry about that with me.
I promise you that, And Buzz said, keep up the

(07:27):
great garbage work. From one proud garbage supporter. Thanks Buzz,
we love you, my friend, and thanks to all the
battle Crew and folks from that are coming over. Who
are Savage Rich Bearris, People's pundit fans? Thanks to mcgroin Nation,
thanks to the Wendy Bell Radio Army. Okay, so we
got Savage Rich Barris on deck. He's the director of

(07:47):
Big Data pol And he's the host of a great
show on Rumble and many of you all by the way,
Hey Rich, what's going on? Brother?

Speaker 6 (07:54):
What's up?

Speaker 1 (07:54):
Brother? The lighting looks good.

Speaker 6 (08:00):
On you. Man. It's the LEDs are back, you know. Uh,
they're they're They're in the right position. I'm telling you
got to get this place organized before election night.

Speaker 1 (08:09):
You look like you got some color for election night.
This is this modes well.

Speaker 6 (08:13):
I told you, bro, I told you he was the
trick of the camera.

Speaker 1 (08:19):
People have been writing me about this all week. I
swear to God, people, but like it's not the lights.
You need to get Polster Rich out of his basement,
tell them to stop crunching.

Speaker 6 (08:28):
Some anothers are really true. Both are really true. I
mean that's because I used to be a lot darker
than this. Guys. I've just been stuck in this. I've
been stuck in these walls for a long time. Laura
doesn't let me out. Listen right now, don't let her
hear us. She taps me in here.

Speaker 1 (08:49):
No, So okay, So you got to tell me, what
do you think of Biden calling half the nation garbage?
I said in the lead in before you got in
the waiting room. I thing. You know, Obama calls everyone
bitter clingers. Hillary Clinton calls everyone bed the basket of deplorables,
and now Biden calls us floating piles of garbage. This

(09:12):
is how these communists, leftists really think about us.

Speaker 6 (09:16):
It is though, you know that, come on, let's be honest.

Speaker 1 (09:18):
It's how they feel. It's completely how they feel.

Speaker 6 (09:20):
This is what happened and old see a lot of
times this happens with older statesmen anyway, Newt Gingridge, Bob Beckle,
they both got you know, Nut just did it the
other day. Bob Beckle before obviously you know he's not
here anymore, but you know, back in twenty fourteen, when
he was still an election night guest on Fox, the
resident Democrat. These guys get old and just start saying

(09:41):
stuff that you know, they really everyone you know in
their circles believe. And Bob Beckle gave away that you
know Fairfax County fills in absentee ballots at will. You know,
that's why they hold the vote and stop counting. He
just he told everybody that on Election Night Live. A
new grengag brought it up the other day, like Trump

(10:02):
can't lose if people vote, you know, even with the cheating,
people are going to try. I mean, of course, I mean,
really they just get old and start saying stuff Biden
said with all Democrats think about most of the country
behind closed doors. Don't take my word for it. You think,
by the way, liberals, non whites, you think he's just
talking about white people. Go readesta emails. Go read Potesta's

(10:26):
emails that are on wiki leagues to this day. Why
don't you type in Hispanic voters all right and see
what they have to think about Hispanics. You're a bunch
of dumb, needy people who care only about machismo. And
if you if we don't hold your hand, you don't
know where to walk or where to crawl, Like it's disgusting.
This is what they really do think of you. And
Joe Biden is old and he's senile, and he's not controllable,

(10:49):
like he has no filter and he can't control it anymore.
So he just blurted it out of course, for you know,
this woman to go to that microphone. I mean, that's
another level, bro.

Speaker 1 (10:59):
He said it. He said it in the middle of
her closing message speech. And I'm telling you, but I
think nobody's talking about her speech. Nobody, No.

Speaker 6 (11:09):
And this is what is so different. I mean, this
phone does not stop. I'm going to throw it against
the wall very soon. It's unbelievably bad. I'm about to
turn it off. I can't. It gets to the point
where you can't get your work done. Everyone wants to
talk to you and wants a piece of you, and
it's like, that's great, but I have a job to do,
you know. But honestly, Sean, what makes I hate to

(11:29):
say this? You know, one hand, it's the fourth time
the guy's flip flopped and said that something caused this
person the election. Right, Uh, the debate cost Donald Trump
the election. Then this cost Joe Biden or Harris the election.
Franklin's been doing this back and forth for weeks now.
But he did make a good point. He made a
good point, and he said, what's so different here is

(11:50):
this is like an off the cup joke that they
made a huge deal about seventy two hours the number
one story in America. Okay, and then that's just a
joke from like an obscure, largely unknown comedian, which, as
you pointed out before, fell totally flat on the magacrow.
They didn't find it funny at all, probably because it's
pretty non white now and people don't And by the way,

(12:14):
my wife, for people don't know most two she's Puerto Rican.
She's actually thought it was funny. Most of her family
thought it was funny. There used to be Clinton supporters
in her family. They're now Trump supporters. Nobody who heard
that comment is now going to vote for Harris because
of that, Like they feel it's insulting. I am smart

(12:35):
enough to see the clip. They were all watching parts
of the rally anyway, They're not dumb. There's a big
difference between that and the president of the United States,
as Lonz pointed out, in his official capacity as president
and the supporter of his vice president, who is the
Democratic nominee, did not misspeak. He went out there and
he called half the country garbage.

Speaker 1 (12:58):
He floated piles of garbage.

Speaker 6 (13:00):
Just like, let's be real, Hillary Clinton wasn't misspeaking. Barack
Obama wasn't misspeaking when he looked at all of you,
like you're just bitter clingers to God and guns, like
your tiny, stupid people, the unwashed, uneducated masses, Like that's
who he thinks you are. That's who Joe Biden thinks
you are. The only difference is I thought I was.

(13:20):
I've been thinking about this Sean like Joe Biden is
a political whore, but he was never like one of
those elitist ass wipes. And I agree, I agree with
him what they do to him. Like he was cool, folks.
I'm telling you the guy you would shoot the ship with.
You would hang out with him, and you would shoot
the ship with him. He's a funny guy. Or he

(13:41):
was the Joe Biden like I remember when I was, like.

Speaker 1 (13:44):
I think, I think, being from Delaware generally speaking, would
probably disagree with you. Think she thinks that Joe Biden.
I mean, I mean he fakes a good game. I
mean I'm sure like I'm a guy on the trail, Yeah,
if you were politicking on the trail, would probably be
pretty cool to have a beer with. But everybody in
Delaware and my wife is involved was involved in Delaware

(14:06):
Republican politics for some time, and she said, even Democrats
in that state and just absolutely revile a guy like
he's a huge douchebag. Like it's just a huge douchebag.

Speaker 8 (14:16):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (14:16):
I mean I have totally different capacity than I'm speaking,
you know from you know, I'm a guy and in
his mind at the time, a potential voter. This was
Let's see, I just turned forty three. I was thirty
one years old, you know what I mean, like a
very very different situation. He was cool, you know. I
mean like he was cool to just talk to you,

(14:37):
and he was like not book smart smart, but witty
with like you know, like it was a great retail in.

Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, he was cool.

Speaker 6 (14:47):
You know. It was like, yeah, didn't you blow this
thing off, man, Let's go get pounded or something. You know,
Like he was cool. You know, he was I knew
I didn't ever like his policy, but I felt like
he was was probably an asset for Barack Obama to
have around because if I was a Republican senator, uh,

(15:07):
and I served with Biden when there was a problem
on the hill, like I would open my door for
Joe Biden and be like come in, you will go,
you know whatever, let's talk, let's hatch it out and
get it done, you know whatever, we got to do.
So I thought him as I thought, as you know,
that he was an asset. But I don't know when
they got to this guy like this again, he's always
been a political whore and whatever. Liar, he's a liar, he's.

Speaker 1 (15:31):
A serial plagiarist. I don't think he's like I mean,
he's a terrible, terrible human being. I mean, yes, like
telling the lie.

Speaker 6 (15:38):
One acknowledges grand granddaughter.

Speaker 1 (15:40):
He wouldn't acknowledge his granddaughter. But also like the man
who got an accident with his with his wife called
him a drunk. That guy's whole, his entire life, ruined
his life, like Joe Biden is a is not a
good person. He is just he's not a good person
at all. And my theory is as he kids older,
he has an inability to fake it. Like the vaneer

(16:03):
comes off and now what you see is just his
you know what, is an exposed blackened heart and soul.
And he's out there calling half of America garbage and
completely stepping all over Kamala Harris's closing message, which by
the way, wasn't strong to begin with out there calling
Trump a petty dictator and everything else. I mean, do

(16:26):
you think let me ask you a question, Rich, do
you think that Biden saying that hurts Kamala Harris's chances
on election day?

Speaker 5 (16:36):
Uh?

Speaker 6 (16:37):
Look, they are very very few people who are really undecided.
I do think just like you could find one person
maybe who would be offended by the comments that they
heard from the media. Although I truly believe if somebody
is swayable from the media about something like that, Trump

(16:58):
really probably was not going to get there anyway. But
they're as far as who's truly, you know, persuadable. I
do think it can hurt because, you know, at first
I was kind of blowing it off, but I really
think Frank's right here. This is different. This is the
president coming out and trying to support his vice president
as denominee in his capacity as president, and he called

(17:22):
these people garbage. You know, I mean, think about this, Sean,
your wife is a moderate Democrat, right, and she's gonna
vote for Harris because she feels like.

Speaker 1 (17:34):
Melanie is a no, no no.

Speaker 6 (17:35):
I'm trying to campaign hypothetical here, okay, right, no, God forbid, No,
Melanie's not that stupid. But anyway, yeah, but like you know,
this is somebody who's just like a normy, all right,
but they're married to you and they know you're a conservative.
You guys, you know, love each other and respect each other.
You disagree on politics, and you can't sell out each
other's vote. She still doesn't really like Harris, because there

(17:57):
are plenty of them that don't. She's not sure maybe
if she's even going to vote, and she like you
at least says that Trump did a good job as president,
Like our latest retrospective approval rating hasn't the highest it's
ever been, including higher than last month when I was
on your show to talk about it. Would your wife
be pissed if she heard the president call you piece

(18:18):
of garbage, call you garbage? You know what I mean? Like,
I feel like she would, like, wait a minute, Not
all of Trump's supporters are garbage. So it's like not
all of so so so, like this is what that
person would say. Not all Harris's supporters are garbage, and
not all the Trump supporters are garbage, and that's wrong
to call it. Look deplorables hurt Hillary Clinton. That hurt

(18:38):
Hillary Clinton. And we keep talking. We always hear about
the Cally surprise, this that the other thing. Literally nobody
told us it was called me in our polling. WICKI
leaks had an impact, but only because it affirmed what
people thought of Hillary Clinton. The deplorables thing pissed people off.
It did, you know, Like, I'm not deplorable because I
oppose the modern trade regime that cost my community It's soul,

(19:03):
you know, I mean, I mean, you carved out the
soul of our neighborhoods and we're just supposed to sit
here and take it. And why because I don't like
legal immigration and I don't like what you've done with
trade and the WTO and NAFTA. I'm just I'm not
a bad person because of that. And that hurt Hillary Clinton.
It did, so, you know, I think far more than
any transcript of for getting a speech from Goldman Sachs

(19:25):
like way way worse her saying basket of deplorables. So,
I mean, I think this is not if you're Kamala,
this is not how you want to close out the campaign.
It's just not you know, I cannot stress that enough.
She's been all over the place, her message has been
totally muddled. Nobody knows what it is when we talk

(19:46):
to people beyond the partisans who just believe her message wholeheartedly,
which is Trump is bad. Vote for me as bad
as I am because I'm not Donald Trump. That's her message.
And there's a group of people out there who are
going to buy that. But guess what, that's forty five
percent the vote. How you getting the other six and
doing that is just not how it's going to get done.

Speaker 1 (20:04):
So let's let's talk about the state of the race
here for a second, and I'll give you I am
First of all, I was telling the audience that I
have been completely immersed, just underwater since Monday in Pennsylvania,
dealing with the litany of issues of Democrat voter suppression

(20:27):
and Democrat attempts to cheat. I mean, there's absolutely no
doubt in my mind. I mean it is like, what's
amazing to me is the conspiracy theory that there's no
evidence of voter widespread evidence of voter fraud. I mean,
the evidence is everywhere. There are anomalies everywhere, And for

(20:48):
the first time in a long time, I feel like
we're actually being proactive about it and catching them before
election day, because if it happens after election day, you're
totally You're done. You're done.

Speaker 6 (20:58):
And there already is instances of that. There will legal
votes that have been absolutely and it will not be removed.

Speaker 1 (21:04):
Absolutely, and we'll get I have, I've got some examples
of that here in a minute. But but my so
we are. I told you a little bit this morning,
like every data point looks good, the polling looks good,
the trends in the polling look good. Our early vote
and vote by mail numbers in all the swing states

(21:26):
look good. I realize you've got to be careful with
early voting. I get all that, But but we are
making headway and in some of these early vote and
vote vote by mail numbers that we've never made before.
And then you add to Kamala losing what are traditionally
historic Democrat voting blocks like young black men and Latinos.

Speaker 6 (21:49):
What are they going to do?

Speaker 1 (21:50):
It looks like Trump is winning those in numbers that
we haven't seen in quite some time. Every data point
looks better for Republic then it's ever looked. But something
in the back of my mind has me worried. I'm
not seeing anything that is like a bright, flashing red
light saying like this is very bad. I'm not seeing

(22:12):
anything like that yet, but something has me worried and
I can't quite put my finger on it. And I
was wondering if you feel the same way.

Speaker 6 (22:21):
This is why I think I've been telling people, Look,
you really do have to swamp it. You have to
swamp it. And if you think you voted enough, you
didn't vote more like this is the way you have
to think about this now until the election is done.
And actually not even I don't know about you, Sean,

(22:41):
but you know we'll be helping a cure when this
is over, because for people who don't know what we're
talking about in a state like Nevada, for instance, Pennsylvania's
gonna have the same problem. But in Nevada they actually
got the court say you can accept ballads that aren't
postmarked by five pm on the third day after the election.
Why would you do that. There's literally no way to

(23:04):
know whether or not that's a legitimate ballad that somehow
didn't get there in time before election, maybe got set aside,
mailed a little late, and it's getting there by the deadline.
There's no way to know whether that's it or whether
it's Mark Elias and his disgusting team of election thiefs
paying people thousands upon thousands of dollars to fill in
ballads of people who did not vote for Kamala because

(23:27):
very clearly in the trend right now, we can see
she has a turnout problem. It's obvious and glaring to everybody.
So I think that's something in the back of your
mind showan because you know your opponent and in twenty twenty,
they never expected that vote to be that big, So
they had to do what they did right and think

(23:49):
about everything that Trump was up against and how bad
the polling look how bad the early voting trend looked,
how bad everything looked, and yet he's still almost one
despite of it. But they know that. So it's like,
this is not These people may be tone deaf, and
they may be stupid when it comes to common sense,
but they are not stupid when it comes to power,

(24:11):
and they are going to be aware of that as well,
so they're gonna have believe me tricks. So it all
I can tell you is that the right has the numbers.
Trump has the numbers. I'm not sure about some downball Republicans,
you know, in certain areas. I think some are certainly
looking better than others, and that at one time may

(24:31):
have thought to not been competitive, but they look great
now and probably if Trump wins their state, they're gonna
win it too. But you know, I mean, it really
is Trump that's driving it. And we know this, and
you know what, some of the stuff I'm working on,
with things you're doing, we know it's him. All right.
They're not coming out. I don't mean to dog anybody
or I don't need to mention anyone's name down ballad.

(24:53):
They are not coming out for you. They're coming out
for Donald Trump. And I know they know that. But
you need to make sure that they get out because look,
if you do get them out, I mean, he's more
than just a fifty five percent chance to win. Like this,
I just am trying to be very careful and not

(25:13):
so any kind of complacency. He's more likely to win
than she is. And if you get certain groups out
to vote, think say it. I think that's a way
to say it. Yeah. And if you get these groups,
and you know the groups that we're talking about, there
are some that traditionally do wait. They are still seemingly waiting.

(25:34):
Even though the vote looks better for Republicans. However, you
still need to get them out. If that happens and
they do get out, he's more than fifty five percent,
He's eighty percent. Eighty five percent. I mean, Sean, I
just looked at an internal poll in Pennsylvania that is
Trump plus four. All right, so this is an internal poll.

(25:58):
And I was told because I was immediately went and
spoke to others about it, trying to see on the
other side, Hey, do you guys see it this bullish?
And somebody told me not for I'm not to blow
them up. I hope you don't care. But somebody told me, actually,
I just saw mccormicks and McCormick said Trump up too
by basically the same margin, So they know what they're

(26:19):
facing going in. But again, you have to vote. I
cannot strug.

Speaker 1 (26:24):
I mean, the polls you have got the poles don't
reflect people actually showing up and.

Speaker 6 (26:28):
You have to go.

Speaker 1 (26:29):
So let me give you a quick update, like just
a quick synopsis of what's been going on from like
from an election integrity standpoint. So in Pennsylvania, we won
our case. Yes, so get this. So not just in bucks,
but ballots, like mail in ballots in Pennsylvania, they they
must be returned by election day at eight pm. So,

(26:50):
in other words, there's no cure in ballot they had
like if so, if you put your they it's not
about being postmarked by election day. They have to reived
received by eight pm on election day. So if there's
even a question of if people are listening, right, and
you're a Republican and you're listening, if there's even a
question that your mail in ballot might arrive late and

(27:11):
your vote might you're thinking that it will get banged,
Just walk it into your polling location and hand it somebody.
That's the best way to do it now. But that
all has to happen by the end of the day
eight o'clock at night on election.

Speaker 6 (27:24):
And if you mailed it, track it, use the state's website.
Because we've heard all sorts of bonker things. I'm not
going to get into it because I am not going
to sow the same crap. Like, let's admit it, there
is an election fraud machine rift you know what I mean?
On the right god rift, Yeah, right, that makes it

(27:45):
very difficult for people like us who really are looking
out for legitimate concerns. And then what it also does,
which is what the left really wants out of it,
is it makes the normal American think their vote doesn't
count and there's no oh point why they're just gonna
rig it. The machines are just gonna steal it. That's
what they want you to think, all right, because they

(28:09):
cannot win if you vote. It really is that simple.
If you just vote, they will lose.

Speaker 1 (28:16):
And they know that you're so you're one hundred percent right.
There is an election fraud grift on the right. And
not only that, it makes it makes what we're looking at,
it makes people take us less seriously and painted with
the same brush. Yeah, so okay, so we win our
case in Bucks County. We we we won in court

(28:36):
today in Bucks County after being forced to huge voting
lines were shut down early. My phone and and and
you sent me a connection of somebody there who is
who is fantastic. I'm glad I was able to connect
with him. But like my Bucks County, they closed down
the lines early. We won. They extended early voting there. Today,
the Supreme Court of the United States ruled in favor

(28:57):
of Virginia after KAMALA'SDJ attempted to reinstate self identified non
citizens on the Virginia voting roles, like which every Democrat
in Congress votes against the Save Act, which for a,
prohibit illegal alien invaders from voting in our election and
require them to actually show a proof of citizenship. And
then so they say, and they and the reason why

(29:19):
they voted against. They say, it's already illegal. But then
the Biden DOJ and the Harris DOJ turns around and
sues Virginia to stop them from a.

Speaker 6 (29:28):
Look with Mark Elias with Mark Mark Ollis, who, by
the way, is the dirtiest man in this business I've
ever stood niced I was forced to under court subpoena.
I had to stand next to him. Number one, he stinks.
He's like one of those guys who smell. I don't
know if he doesn't wear deodorant or what. He just
doesn't take care of himself. His ship was all wrinkled,

(29:49):
like he was a disgrace.

Speaker 1 (29:50):
You know.

Speaker 6 (29:50):
He's like definitely that kind of guy, like a you
know whatever. He's just one of those disgusting people, like
inside and out, Like I think his soul smells so
bad that it reaks through his pores and it stinks
the whole room up, you know, like, I think his
soul is rotten. And like we have said before, like
that he's complaining about the Supreme Court decision you're talking

(30:12):
about right now, And I said, what the headline here
is professional election thief denounces the Supreme Court for disallowing
him to give non citizens the right to vote, something
he claimed for years he was never trying to do.
He's a liar and a scumbag.

Speaker 1 (30:30):
He is.

Speaker 6 (30:31):
He's one of those scummy people guys that you stand
next to and you're like, I need a shower.

Speaker 1 (30:37):
Like he is. He is a scumbag. So, but did
you hear about the Colorado Secretary of State Jenna Griswold
h leaked the voting system passwords online. Yeah, and then
you had then you had a Michigan attorney. Uh oh yeah,
he identified single voter IDs being used to cast multiple ballots. Well,

(30:58):
the here's I want everybody to know that Laura Trump
just talked about this. But the but Laura Trump and
the Trump campaign looked into this. It was a glitch.
Those one hundred plus thousand votes aren't going to be counted.
But again, you don't have glitches when you have paper ballots.
But I digress. How about Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn
Benson and not announcing a nationwide issue that cannot be

(31:21):
fixed with dominion voter ACAC big deal.

Speaker 6 (31:24):
This is a huge This one is a huge deal.
It's going to impact you too in counties that are
using dominion, especially anywhere that has party tickets. All right,
what it essentially is doing I think I think this
glitch is to protect down ballid races. So in the
event they cannot stop the top of the ticket from

(31:46):
rolling the way that this glitch works on, they could
legit not count. So like anyone who goes in there
votes for Trump is a Nory me and then maybe says,
I don't really know. I guess I'll go McCormick because
he's a Republican too, you know, like that could impact this.
So I mean, this such just a convenient glitch. Again,

(32:06):
just like yesterday and both Montgomery and Bucks and multiple
other places.

Speaker 1 (32:10):
And quakers down I mean, look Quakerstown, PA. So you
want to get a sense of what happened in Bucks,
like watch this rich question quakers down.

Speaker 9 (32:17):
I have to bring someone here about four o'clock.

Speaker 1 (32:20):
So those badges that you see around their next to vote,
those aren't actual election officials. We talked about this. These
are activist democrats. But listen to how.

Speaker 6 (32:28):
They are thing right there. That's a w look. You
could see it from here.

Speaker 1 (32:31):
So yeah, listen. Listen to how these activist democrats talk
to voters who are waiting in line. And then there's
this police officer there.

Speaker 6 (32:38):
Watch are they going to ask you to.

Speaker 1 (32:40):
Talk to them?

Speaker 9 (32:40):
They're going to turn everyone down.

Speaker 6 (32:42):
I want to ask you to talk to this gentleman
because the voting is closed right now, it's close. I
just want you to talk to this gentleman.

Speaker 9 (32:47):
We have the right to vote until four thirty.

Speaker 6 (32:51):
Why is it close?

Speaker 1 (32:53):
Please? Okay, this process is very slow.

Speaker 9 (32:59):
Ruling doesn't matter if we're online, very slow and grueling.
It doesn't matter if we're online by four point thirty.

Speaker 1 (33:05):
We have the right to because a high volume of
people want to do this.

Speaker 9 (33:11):
Well, then they have to wait till everyone's line. They
cut the line at one. You heard that, every one?
They cut the line at one.

Speaker 1 (33:19):
Ridiculous.

Speaker 6 (33:20):
Here, what's more ridiculous? Crown in a uniform is sitting
there and passing on along this bullshit.

Speaker 1 (33:27):
I mean, that's what he is. As Governor Shapiro said,
as long as you're in line by five o'clock. Democrat
Governor Shapiro is tweeting this stuff, and this cop is
saying that. And listen to how listen to how these
Democrats talk to this voter who's like, I'm just trying
to vote. Listen.

Speaker 6 (33:44):
Yes, it is voter protection.

Speaker 9 (33:47):
I heard about that on X Yeah, there's a lot
going on, vord protection.

Speaker 1 (33:52):
Let's see what the untack.

Speaker 6 (33:53):
The county commissioners to complain. This is a a Democrat
think this is by the way, Yeah, who are democrats?
By the way, that's just what you all need to understand.
Bucks too, even though there's like you know you have
actually one of them went democratic. One of the other
boards that was Republican that just went Democratic after a
nasty fight. Unfortunately, it was really bad. It was gross.

(34:18):
We shouldn't conduct ourselves like that, you know, especially over
local elections, but they did. Literally one Democrat flipped out
and threw a chair at one of the incumbents. I
had pictures of it, I got video, I posted on Twitter.
It was hilarious. Buddy won or his wife won? His
wife one. He's running this year now or not their
off cycle. He's running this next off cycle coming up.

(34:39):
Not now, but yeah, I mean the problem is Democrats
in some of the rennest areas you would be shocked at.
She's a contact of border commissioners. You could be in
an R plus thirty area, folks, and your border commissioners Democrats.
They're Democrats because for some reason the right is doing
a better job of it now. But in places like

(35:00):
Pennsylvania they're not. I mean, that's just the truth. They're
a little bit better, but not what it means in.

Speaker 1 (35:05):
The West, we're rolling up the row offices. We weak
the row offices. I mean, you're in neck, in my neck.
That is not good enough.

Speaker 6 (35:14):
Where we're southeast in it, That's right. That's what terrible.
It's it's absolutely terrible. So uh, even in where I
vote as a little she's so funny. It it's basically
all but one older man who I don't want to
blow up anyone's name, but they're all Democrats. And this

(35:34):
is a Trump plus thirty something district. It's like thirty
two something like that. Uh, the county will be at
least Trump plus fifteen or more. And uh, you know,
it's just it's unbelievable that that's the way it is.
But it is. Here's the real problem with their little excuse.
And the cop should be ashamed of himself. He's supposed
to protect and serve and enforce the law, and he

(35:57):
was helping them break the law. That's what he was
obviously because a judge, you know, judges agreed in rich.

Speaker 1 (36:05):
What kills me, what kisses me off multiple places, I mean,
but what pisses me off about this is we've known
this shit was coming for a long time.

Speaker 6 (36:14):
This isn't a.

Speaker 1 (36:14):
Surprise you have that they are purposefully understaffing these locations
so they cannot process the early vote. This is exactly
what's happening the whole Oh, this is a slow, grueling process.
That is not an excuse. You knew this day was coming.
So what the hell's going on?

Speaker 6 (36:32):
And get rid of early voting. You can get rid
of early voting. If you couldn't tell, if you could
not take on this task, then the government's not efficient
enough at it. We can't just be disenfranchising people. Get
rid of early voting and deal with it on election day.
But of course you're not going to do that right now,
So how dare you try to make an excuse like
this and guess what? This was widespread again? I can't

(36:55):
I'm going to repeat this again. This was not one
or two locations. This was widespread. My phone was blowing
up from people in Montgomery to Burks, to Delaware to Bucks.
This was going on in a lot of areas. One
of the reasons why Bucks got such a lot of
attention is because they did it to a young man
who is the son of somebody important, and they dub

(37:16):
and that's what happened, all right otherwise, So he got
on the phone and called a lawyer very quickly, and
the ball got rolling, all right. So it's there are
some signs and positive signs that Republicans have in place
mechanisms to catch this stuff. Like you know, it's not
eight hours later you hear about a pipe bursting and
they closed an office. You couldn't vote, right, they know

(37:37):
something about that day, And now because they did this,
they're going to be three extra days. A lot of
people are losing it over the year. A lot of
people on the writer are concerned that there are too
many females in early voting and that men aren't voting
at high enough rates. I have the data right in
front of me, but I mean, yeah.

Speaker 1 (37:54):
Let me take a quick break. I want to get
in rats, know that. Let me just I want to
get into all of this and all of your latest polls.
Like I I've got to take a break. I'm like
way over time, but I'll be right stay right there, man, Okay,
don't forget to smash that like button a little green
thumb beneath. The video also got flags from Aunt Cindy

(38:15):
Boston Guy. So Boston is concerned with Savage Riches well being.
He says, save Rich from Laura ha haha, kidding, And
I can see Rich laughing in the waiting room. And Dorry.
Dorry said, I thought the RNC hired thousands to be
at voting locations. Where are they, Dorry? We're watching, I mean,

(38:36):
especially in swing states, we are watching like a hawk
and trying to do everything we can to catch things
ahead of time. But yeah, that's a good concern. But
thank you, Dorry, and thank you Boston for the rumble
rants tips. I'm want to bring Savage Rich Barris Back,
the director of Big Data poll and host of Inside
the Numbers. So rich, couple things, you got some polling

(39:00):
at give us, just take us. Jump into that data
anyway that you want. What does it say? What's the
state of the race as it stands right now under
a week to go.

Speaker 6 (39:12):
Yeah. So, I've long been a skeptic of a Republican
winning the popular vote because Republicans simply cannot do that
if they don't do better with non whites. There's only
so much blood you can squeeze from the white vote stone,
and it's not enough. Every year the share of the
white vote shrinks as a percentage of the electorate, which
means you would have to continuously win more and more

(39:33):
of it, and you cannot do that as it got
more educated and really whatever you want to call it, credentialed,
the doctrinated, whatever you want to call it. So the
reason this has been a big deal, and I've been
on your show month after month after month talking about
Trump's share of the non white vote is because if
you know you're going to see these national polls, Trump

(39:55):
plus this her plus that it's bunk. If he doesn't,
if he cannot, you know, win a certain x number
of black votes x number of Hispanic votes, and that
white vote share in the poll is not going to
hold up. I'm telling you it's not. And he may
even be understated a little bit, but it's not gonna
be enough to get him to a popular vote win.
And typically that evaporates by the time we get closer

(40:19):
to election day. Over the summer. If there's we call
it flirting, right, We've seen where there's been a flirt
with a Republican candidate, maybe they'll do better with non
white votes, and then it vanishes. It evaporates over the
summer and definitely honor around if not shortly after Labor Day.
This is and here, I mean I could put it up.
I got it on the thing. If you want me
to show it, I will.

Speaker 1 (40:39):
There you go, but here on it.

Speaker 6 (40:41):
Yeah, I'm gonna hear. I'm gonna zoom in on it.
I'm gonna go table by table here. But Trump is
I know why you're seeing all these national polls that are, like,
you know, tied. That's the easy way out, Okay, I
mean that's really all there is to it. It's the
easy way out to say that the race is tied.
The way that the raw data is coming back and

(41:02):
with simple you know weights, and you're not going to
apply voter screens. If number one, if you're a liberal polster,
you want to help come out a little bit, so
you don't you leave it and then you can head
your bets right or you can do your damn job
and try to project who's going to vote, because that
is the that is the biggest part in my mind,
since I'm definitely a school like a Gallop school polster.

(41:26):
Right after Labor Day it is time to decide it
was going to come out and vote. That's what made
Gallop so good after all these years. And a lot
of posters aren't trying to do that, or worse, they're
using likely voter models that just don't make any sense.
What I found to be really interesting with this is
that our early vote actually does reflect what you know,

(41:47):
the early vote as we know it is today, and
a lot of these poles that you're seeing do not.
Right the round of Matris polls in the sun Belt,
they had Harris up x here with the early vote
x there. We know that's not true, Sean, we know
it's not true. So it's like we know that they
modeled it to liberal. It's a lot to get into.
But if you just go for you know, by race,

(42:09):
I can just tell you Trump's black vote share has
held if we do the five way generic I mean
five way ballid with the generic someone else, because in
various states there can be other candidates. Trump's share of
the vote by race and white voters is Trump plus thirteen.
That's about what he won them by in twenty twenty.

(42:30):
So he hasn't lost any And the interesting thing is
is that Trump is typically underrepresented with white voters. He'll
do better with white voters than he pulls. Why because
it's easier to get white educated voters on the phone,
and it's very simple just trying to speak in layman's
here than it is to get people who live out
in western Pennsylvania and are like a steel workers union

(42:51):
outside of Pittsburgh and don't want to talk to you
when they get off of work every day. All right,
But here it is, and he's got that thirteen percent,
which is what he would need. That's his like, you know,
that's his mark. He needs that. And then you can
see with hispanics here, obviously he's increased his support among
Hispanics quite a bit. If you do the head to head,
he's in the forties.

Speaker 1 (43:11):
Oh wow, I was going to say, what's the number.
One of the numbers.

Speaker 6 (43:13):
The number on the expanded is thirty nine point four.
And the reason why you can pretty comfortably say that
that's not going to be a miss on the low
end is because if you look at the standard ballot,
he actually gets in the low forties to forty three percent.
When there's no one else to choose from, she can
only get to fifty seven. That is a major red

(43:35):
flag for a Democrat. Same thing with black voters. I
think he'll get a little, he'll get a little less
than this, but.

Speaker 1 (43:41):
This is exactly what's what.

Speaker 6 (43:43):
Yes, So without another choice against Kamala Harris, he's getting
twenty three point one percent of Black voters, which is
driven by two things. It is men, but it is
also women. Men obviously more. He's getting about thirty percent
of the black male vote, which is insane but it
is happening. And then with black women, he's getting the

(44:03):
low to mid teens, which does make sense with the
upward trend that he has experienced over the years. She
only got four in twenty sixteen, he got ninety in twit.

Speaker 1 (44:15):
Make What do you make of ABC's IPSOS poll. I
think it was coming out on Sunday saying that Kamala
is getting more support from black men than Joe Biden did.

Speaker 6 (44:25):
That's bullshit. I don't even know what. Okay. First of all,
ITSOS is one of the worst. If SO is one
of beat.

Speaker 1 (44:38):
Okay, well said, well, articulate shit.

Speaker 6 (44:40):
I mean, there's a few reasons why one and the
first and foremost, IFSOS is one of the worst panels
out there. Everybody knows it. They're only using the IPSOS
panel because Gary Langer in his traditional methodology which produced
the Biden plus seventeen in Wisconsin back in twenty twenty.
He didn't get fired for that, but oh no, having
two strong results for Donald Trump at ABC News on

(45:05):
the behest at the best of George Stephanopolis will get
you fired. Now. They didn't want to fire him because
they didn't want it to look so bad. I got
the whole story, so they just sidelined him. He started
using the IPSOS panel and said, we're going to say
that your overseeing field work. It is not how Gary
Langer is conducted polls. Langer Research has never pulled like this.
They did this intentionally, and they went and not only

(45:27):
sought out another alternative, they sought out one of the
worst track records with a democratic bias that you could
possibly find in this industry. And that is the truth.
And then secondly, I oversampled black and Hispanic voters a lot.
All right, We overall Hispanics and black voters were about

(45:49):
twenty percent of this sample when they should only be about,
you know, ten to twelve thirteen whatever it is on
a given We did that on purpose. So right now
it says two hundred and nine hundred and ninety two,
it's actually more than that because we oversampled them and
weighted them down to make sure that they were representative
of the base sample. Okay, and I know, I'm get

(46:09):
to live a bunch of a jargon, but they didn't
do that. Another poll for Politico, however, did and they're
in line with what we found. So like, we're not
just talking about metro non whites that they want to
speak to that are easier to get, you know, We're
talking about a very diverse group. And I'm just let
me just I'm very confident in it. I really am Sean,

(46:31):
I'm just going to happen.

Speaker 1 (46:33):
What do you think, I know, I'm kind of throwing
pepper and you with questions here? What do you think
about Christians? Do you think Christians are turning out?

Speaker 6 (46:44):
Christians always turn out at higher rates than others. Here
is religion detail. Let's look at it by the likelihood
to vote. Overall, Protestants certain to vote eighty six point
seven percent. Catholics a point one Christian which are a Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian,

(47:04):
Methodists and Adventists are lower, and so are Orthodox. Jews
are much higher, Mormons are much higher. Even Hell I
mean Muslims are higher than those other secondary religions. But
as of right now, the lion's share, which is mainline
and Evangelical, Protestant plus Catholic are in fact at this

(47:25):
point are turning out, and that Protestants are up there
with Jewish voters, and you know, not as quite as
as Mormons. Mormons have a huge certainty to vote number
every year. It always happens, so there's nothing I'm not that.
And then by the way, Evangelicals are more likely to
vote than mainline Protestants, so I wouldn't be too concerned

(47:48):
about that. I've heard this concern before. I think what
we need to do is discuss in this is something
that's going to have to be a conversation for the future.
But there are there's been a lot of progress getting
Republican constituencies to vote early. However, there was a lot
we and you know this, but we have. We did

(48:10):
a lot of research on why Republicans don't vote early,
how you could get them to vote early. We've been
doing this by the scenes for a long time and
there have been groups that have displayed more challenges, okay,
when getting them to vote early. They are more skeptical
of early voting, and that would be women. Some eat lots,

(48:31):
not some, but a good chunk of evangelicals. They don't
like and they don't trust some of those systems. For instance, Folks,
if you use the term dropbox to a male Republican,
you are extremely likely to scare the shit out of
him and he will not drop that ballad in that box.
If you say a secure location, you drop off your

(48:55):
ballot at one of these secure locations. I had a
pamphlet here, but you know you scan it on your phone,
find your secure location, they will be much more likely
to do it. You use the media's words, their buzzwords,
and you know what, sadly, we were just talking about this,
they're also the same buzzwords as that, like election fraud,

(49:15):
grift class that the right is going on. You use
that and you will turn them off.

Speaker 1 (49:21):
All right.

Speaker 6 (49:22):
So there's a couple of groups that are problematic, and
in the future Republicans are going to have to do
better and totally changed their language in order to get
them on board the way they have with so many
other groups. But a big part of the reason, and
we can see it clear in our data here sean
the big one of the big parts for the big
reasons that this electorate so far appears to be more

(49:46):
female than it has been in the past. And it
is is simply because Republicans are doing a better job
getting their people to vote, but their people who are
willing to participate and vote early for the first time
are also more female. So that is making it look
like it's an extremely you know, female electorate. And oh,

(50:06):
by the way, that must mean abortion really is this
big driving issue?

Speaker 1 (50:10):
Yeah, Rich talk about the early voted women advantage for Dems,
talk about that, right.

Speaker 6 (50:17):
So, actually, the truth is the Democrat advantage is extremely
narrow in overall early not even in overall early voting,
in certain forms of early voting, regardless of the fact
that it's extremely female, we see it too, all right,
men are telling us they're going to vote more as

(50:38):
it gets closer to the election in person, and then
we're already seeing some of that in like Michigan, for instance,
We're just opened up on Saturday, and they still many
of them still do want to vote in person on
election day. So if you go to where's a vote
method detail, which has a lot more detail on it, Hey,
this is the largest you know to posters will just

(51:01):
say do you plan to vote early or do you
plan to vote on election day? Yeah, we weren't doing
that because there are so many different tranchets of ballots
that come in. We always prefer the expanded version of
this question, but we expanded it even more this year
because of course there are more there's more options, right,
So we have already voted in person early, already voted

(51:21):
via absent y ballot. And by the way, you can
always tell some people are full of shit because of
these numbers. Already voted via early ballot by mail, plan
to vote in person but early, plan to vote early
through absenty ballid and drop off location, plan to vote
early through just appsenty ballid by mail, plan to vote
in person on election day, and plan to vote on

(51:42):
election day via absenty ballot and drop off. You could
do the fifty to fifty, which is a cool exercise,
just like the two party shares. But this is the
entire ballot when it comes including third parties already voted
early in person. Actually, Trump leads all right, extra percentage,
fifty point two to forty five point two. But if

(52:06):
you're looking at those who voted early at an absentee
drop off location, Harris leads, it's just much more narrow
than it was in twenty twenty, even though again it
is more female. Forty eight point four to forty one
point two already voted early via absentee ballad by mail
also Harris fifty four point five to forty one point eight.

(52:27):
These are these sounds like they're big margins for Harris.
They're not. And by the way, in some of these tranches,
Biden was winning by thirty five forty forty five points
in the polling trying to measure early voting and how
it was breaking down and when while Trump would lead
by the way around sixty forty election day or sixty

(52:49):
five to thirty five and in a good margin for
him in a certain poll, right, and skipping to that, actually,
real quick plan to vote in person on election day
and plan to vot vote on election day through appsenty
ballad dropping it off at a location is really the
same margin and it's Trump plus fourteen fifty five to
forty one. Right, So what I want to how I

(53:12):
want to put this is like this, you're baking the
same cake that you baked in twenty sixteen, and you're
using the same ingredients. You're just putting the ingredients in
in a different order. Okay, Like that's how I want
to try to explain this, But ultimately the recipe is
the same and you're still baking a cake. Now, if

(53:35):
you're going to win, the cake tastes good. You know,
if you're going to lose, like in twenty twenty, it
doesn't taste good, But you're still ultimately baking the same cake.
You're just getting there a little bit differently this time.
That being said, though, the early vote does tell us.
I think more about democratic enthusiasm than Republican enthusiasm because

(53:55):
and as the reason I say this is because the
research is really clear. Guys, voters listen to their party
leaders and strategists when it comes to how you vote
your preferred vote methods. If the party and the party's
leaders say vote early, the party's voters vote early. If
they say vote on election day, they vote on election day. Right,
we can clearly there's actually research for this. But you

(54:17):
could look back just yourself, guys, and perceive this in
twenty twenty, and perceive it in twenty two. Right, you
can see it with your own noyes. Now, this year,
what did Trump say?

Speaker 1 (54:27):
Vote early?

Speaker 6 (54:28):
Vote too big to rig and vote early, Vote and
vote early. Bring friends. They're listening. They are absolutely. It's
so imperative that Trump did that and Don Junior did
it because I know he's been doing a lot too.
This is who these people look up to. They will
listen to them because they trust them, and they will
do what they tell them to do. Now, Mitch McConnell
said vote early, they'd say up yours, and they're gonna

(54:50):
do what they want to do. But this is where
they're at there's a lot of question about why Democrats
are doing so poorly in this early vote. Here's what's
the most concerning thing for them and why this is
why they're gonna, you know, do what they do or
try anyway, because they're not gonna suddenly turn into election
day voters. There are some areas where they still do

(55:12):
have an election day apparatus. But you cannot change human
behavior with a tweet, all right, like not overnight. Hey guys,
we're down because you didn't vote for three weeks, for
four weeks. We're gonna need you to get out there.

Speaker 1 (55:25):
To day, all right, that's not how it's hard. Yeah,
I rich, I I.

Speaker 6 (55:30):
Agree, we've got a major problem.

Speaker 1 (55:33):
I'm not I'm not counting them out because they have
unlimited money and they have the volunteers and maybe you
know they can do it.

Speaker 6 (55:40):
They also else.

Speaker 1 (55:42):
Then let me ask you a question I think I have,
Like I've got like what I think is keeping me
up at night? And okay, so what are the chances
that these polls today are overstating Trump's support and understating Democrats?
And let me explain to you my reasoning. And this
is what I'm afraid of in sixteen and in twenty

(56:05):
obviously the polls understated President Trump support significantly right, But
in twenty twenty two many polsters understated Democrat support right.
And my fear is that did these polsters try to
accommodate for Trump's underperformance by swinging the pendulum too far
in the other direction? And that's why you have all

(56:26):
these Trump favorable polls. And are they understating the Democrats.
That's a big fear of mine. Yeah, And is this
all a false sense of optimism?

Speaker 6 (56:37):
Are we just it's a valid it's a look, it's
a valid fear. I can't use one. You can't just
outright dismiss, but I can tell you this one is
there are reasons that the polls overstated Trump in sixteen
and twenty an understated Republican or understated Democrats in twenty two.
The reason is actually the same. They basically are having

(57:02):
a difficult time they we all are having a difficult
time reaching certain groups of voters. For instance, in twenty two,
white working class Republicans did great with them. Their margin
was basically what everyone expected that margin to beate Pulsters
just expected there to be more of them, and there

(57:22):
aren't in midterms anymore. It once upon a time used
to be different. That would hurt Democrats. And that's why
midterms and likely voter models used to help Republicans and
typically Republicans but outperform polls in midterms because their likely
voter model wasn't strict enough and there weren't those voters
low propensity people who came out. They don't and without

(57:45):
Trump on the like in eighteen in some areas Sean,
they did come out because Trump was president and he
was running all over the country asking them, and many
of them did for him for him, They did it
for him, but he wasn't there in twenty two. And
I can't tell you how many private conversations I had
with some of his people and saying, like, listen, I

(58:07):
don't know where your confidence is coming from. If he
doesn't get out and do what he did in eighteen,
these voters are not going to show up for Oz.
And like you could see, Oz's win was baked, like
that cake was there that we were talking about before.
Unfortunately for Oz, he did not get his voters out
and he got creamed in the early vote and on

(58:27):
election day he got a typical midterm turnout, and it
was nowhere near enough and he lost. And that's what happened.
Jim Lee. It's Esquehanna myself. We expected more of those
lower propensity voters to vote in twenty two but because
of Trump's picked candidates, and some of them were telling

(58:47):
us they were going to but they didn't. Here it
was a gamble until a few weeks ago. Why because
a few weeks ago we started to get early vote
data and now it's very consistent. Republicans are outpacing Democrats
with low propensity voters. It is very much in line
when we ask people their vote history. The spreads that

(59:10):
we're seeing between people who didn't vote in twenty twenty
or only voted in two or one out of four
of the last four elections. It's very much in line
with what we're seeing with the APS data, and they
track and among the states that have early vote data.
So it is possible. It's always possible that, you know,

(59:30):
the polls could understate the Democrat this time, but the
reasons for these misses do not suggest that will happen.
The reasons for the misses actually suggests that the polls
are being too They could be too conservative. And I'm
not trying to do this to pump anybody up. I'm
telling you, if passed his prologue and if the early

(59:53):
vote data holds, I mean, the general pattern of what
we're seeing holds, then we're gonna we're gonna understate this guy.
We're gonna do it again. I just question, as will
it be u co tails for Republicans too, because we
have them running.

Speaker 1 (01:00:08):
Well, what do you make of all these Democrats out
there saying, oh my god, but look at Nebraska, Montana,
South Carolina, Missouri, Alaska, kamos at forty percent there and
Trump won those states by huge numbers. This is a
warning design for Trump. What do you say to those
people plow me?

Speaker 6 (01:00:23):
I mean, it's just not gonna happen. I've been around
too long to take this shit seriously. Okay, I remember,
I remember these stupid quacks throwing like Biden or Trump
plus fours from Missouri in my lap. I remember being
sent emails in twenty sixteen like you're a joke, your

(01:00:44):
posts are gonna be wrong. Look, Trump's only up a
few points in Utah. I remember this shit. I've been
through this too many times. By the way, they had
that talking point for Kansas, right. They had that talking
point for all of twenty four hours before for a
more credible poll came out that showed Trump up twenty points.

(01:01:04):
It's a freaking joke. They're gonna you know, I've just
been here before, brother, I mean, I've seen it all,
I've heard it. It's the same tired shit. So yeah,
answer is blow me. All right.

Speaker 1 (01:01:21):
I'm sorry, man, what's wrong with you?

Speaker 6 (01:01:25):
You'm getting old?

Speaker 2 (01:01:26):
You are half parts, half parts polster and half part
professional curmudgeon and you're only forty three. Awesome, He's a
mean one pop actly like a floating pile of garbage.

Speaker 1 (01:01:46):
Rich.

Speaker 6 (01:01:46):
I'm telling you, man, well, Biden's got my number. Brother,
What can I say? I just I'm over it. I'm
getting too old to care anymore, you know, like I
really have always been that way. Just then totally at
this point, it's just like, you know, are there, you
know two years? Seriously to your question, I think there

(01:02:07):
probably are going to be some posters who over compensate,
But I go through their polling data. I'm seeing what
they're doing and there's nothing that's unjustifiable. You know, Like
you and I were talking about Quineipiac before. Okay, they're
gonna play little games, and they're gonna give her like
a lead in Michigan in their fine act.

Speaker 1 (01:02:25):
The day wasn't I mean it was crazy the swing right.

Speaker 6 (01:02:28):
I mean that they cannot afford another election where they
get every battleground state wrong.

Speaker 1 (01:02:35):
They had Trump up right nationally by.

Speaker 6 (01:02:37):
Two, and they got they got them up in Pennsylvania.
And the trend is so clear. It was like Biden
plus seven, Harris plus six, Harris plus four, Harris plus two,
Trump plus two. The trend was so clear. They simply
are thinking. To Tim molloy over there is thinking to himself,
I cannot afford to understate Trump in every state again.

(01:02:59):
So let's take the safe picks like Michigan, the safer ones.
Let's give her a lead there this way. Still, if
we're wrong, we'll say, look, our poll was closed Trump.
You know, he overperformed by only like two or three points.
That's a good poll. We had them up in Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin, so we knew this was gonna have. This
is what they're doing. And then who's the who is

(01:03:21):
the sacrificial cap CNN? They come along, They pull ties
everywhere everywhere's a tie except for Wisconsin. Oh shocker, shocker.
Now there's an outlier in Wisconsin and Parris plus six.
It's like such a such an obvious bullshit game. And
I've been watching them play it for years. This time

(01:03:43):
they're just doing it to hedge their bets. And they
cannot afford not only a miss, they cannot afford another
anti Trump miss.

Speaker 1 (01:03:52):
They can't.

Speaker 6 (01:03:54):
Everybody rich over.

Speaker 1 (01:03:55):
Tell everybody to smash the like button. They smashed the button. Yeah,
we're like these shows, like, okay, listen, I want to
do We're over time. I know you've been very, very embarrassed,
but like, yeah, it goes way too fast. But check
this out. So so let's just say I'm trying to

(01:04:17):
figure out here. Let's say Nevada.

Speaker 6 (01:04:19):
Let's see to Arizona, Nevada.

Speaker 1 (01:04:21):
I'm gonna leave. I'm gonna say Nevada is blue. Okay,
I'm just gonna say it. Let's say let's say Georgia.
My gosh, there's a delay here, because of course there is.

Speaker 6 (01:04:32):
You gotta put Georgia and North Carolina in his column.
I I meant to bring I'm meant to bring that
up before about North Carolina been difficult state to poll.
It does tell us more about Democrats here because Republicans
are up, but they're only up a little bit compared
to twenty twenty. They're doing well as far as early voting,
but they're not that far off there twenty twenty. They're

(01:04:54):
exceeding it. So look down three hundred and change.

Speaker 1 (01:04:59):
Let's say New Mexico goes blue. Yeah, So look so
now here you have an electoral map. You have Nevada
going blue, you have New Mexico going blue, which let's
say that Trump. Yeah, right, so there's a lot to
there's a lot at play here, I think. But like
here you have Arizona going red, Trump winning Arizona, Georgia,

(01:05:19):
North Carolina, and then you have Kamala Harris winning Nevada
and New Mexico in Virginia. And now you have the
electoral map looking at two sixty two for Republicans two
thirty two for Democrats. Rich that means that Trump has
got to win one of the Blue Wall He has
to win one.

Speaker 6 (01:05:37):
Or you look at it the other way. She cannot
lose a single Blue Wall state. If she loses just one,
she's done. The pass to two seventy for Trump are
more their many and they're more you know.

Speaker 4 (01:05:52):
What I mean.

Speaker 6 (01:05:53):
Then Harris has because honestly, the truth is, most people
don't think she's gonna win Nevada. All right, let's blow
it open. John Ralston is over there trying to find
scandals and hoaxes.

Speaker 1 (01:06:03):
It's all right, so let's let's put let's put Nevada
in the red column, and let's say Nevada, which, by
the way, the reason why I'm always by the way,
it's not. Yeah, Nevada is tough. But look that still
doesn't put him over the top.

Speaker 6 (01:06:16):
It doesn't. And the reason why listen, uh that Nevada
pole which I was allowed to share the result of
basic stuff, but I really wish I was able to
put it out. But in any event, I think we're
going to come pretty close. We had Trump up by two,
We did not have the electorate as Republican. We had

(01:06:38):
more Republican leaning independent. So you know, sometimes the poll
works that way. All things iron out. Uh, if we
did remodel it to what we're seeing now, which is
Republicans having more like a four or five point turnout advantage,
then you're looking at more like a Trump plus four
to six, depending on the independence. All right, we would
have understated him there. This this is what John Ralston

(01:07:01):
and everybody else didn't understand. And this is why Pennsylvania
probably is still the easiest one for polsters to throw
Trump's lead to, all right, because we have party registration
there and they're looking at the If he went to Pennsylvania,
we go to bed.

Speaker 1 (01:07:15):
If yes, it's over, I mean it puts Trump. If Trump,
let's say you keep Nevada blue. But if he wins
Pennsylvania and carries the sun, if he carries Arizona, he
carries Georgia, he carries North Carolina, he gets Pennsylvan.

Speaker 6 (01:07:29):
Actually lose Arizona. To watch click it. He can actually
lose Arizona.

Speaker 1 (01:07:36):
That's so yeah, he can lose Nevada in Arizona.

Speaker 6 (01:07:40):
I'm telling you his pass are way more and more like.
When we run these simulations, it'll give you. It depends
on how many you run. But it's looking for combinations,
and when you show them on the chart, which are
shown to people, you'll see Kamala Harris's chart, right, is
so much more narrow. The highest frequency is always where

(01:08:02):
Harris wins three hundred plus three hundred and ten plus
electoral votes. And that's because what they're what the model's
telling you is if she's going to win, it's because
she really is going to just run the table and
take it all, because that's her only way to win.
Because if she starts to lose of one of these states,
if she loses in Pennsylvania, then not only is it

(01:08:23):
likely she loses, it's likely she loses badly because of
the demographic similarities between different states. All right, And by
the way, there are these weird relationships which are really
neat to model out. I've started talking about one before.
It's like Duval County, Florida and Georgia. They trend together.
It's insane, it's very cool. But also Wisconsin and Nevada

(01:08:46):
very different demographics, yet they have moved and trended together
in presidential cycles. She doesn't have the same X number
or actually it's an N number of scenarios to win
that he has. His spectrum is much wider, which means

(01:09:06):
he has many different, more many different, far more combinations
of states that he could put together to get to
two seventy. I'm glad you did that, because we just
stumbled upon one of them right. And here's the kicker.
Most people think the sun belt is gone, sir, all right,
most people think that. People, yes, they do, Democrats and Republicans,

(01:09:28):
they think the sun belt is gone. It's a wrap.

Speaker 1 (01:09:30):
I have heard internal. I have heard rumblings from the
Trump campaign that Trump is extremely strong as in Arizona,
extremely strong in Georgia, and extremely strong in North Carolina.
I have heard this.

Speaker 6 (01:09:44):
I just got in fact, they just got off the
phone before with talking with somebody about what it looks
like on the Democrats point of view in North Carolina.
I had reported days ago, days ago that she was
pulling money out of North Carolina because she needed to
put it into Virginia. I got all sorts of like

(01:10:06):
fanboy tweets, So you're an idiot, you're lying, and sit up.
I'm like, I love you too, assholes.

Speaker 1 (01:10:11):
Anyway, my campaign confirmed it.

Speaker 6 (01:10:13):
Too, and then that ad M pac place, you know, like,
of course, I wasn't pulling this out of my ass.
I know people in the broadcast industry in the state.
I live here. I know all the major media markets.
I know the people. And they dished the tea all right,
and the tea was she bailed in Greensboro, Wilmington, parts

(01:10:34):
of Charlotte, parts of Raleigh, Newburn. She just bailed it,
pulled all the money, and people ask, hey, what you
know what happened. I hope we can do business again
in the future, and some idiot inevitably opens their mouth
and it's like, yeah, we're gonna take this and put
this in Virginia, and then then it gets passed along
and then it ends up in Politico two days, three
days later, and it turns out I was telling the truth,

(01:10:56):
no shit. When are people gonna learn I don't bullshit?
I obviously was told that, and I usually only you know,
it's one person, I better really trust that person, but
it almost never is. I had that stone cold, and
that's because democratic turnout, the polling is finicky and can't
really be trusted. But it does look like Trump's pulling away,

(01:11:17):
and also the Democratic turnout is being modeled to too favorably. Sean.
I was trying to say before, like Republicans are doing
better in early vote in North Carolina, but that's not
really the full picture. They're only a little bit ahead
of where they were in twenty twenty. I mean margin,
I mean good, They're doing very well. It's very well,
but it's nothing you know, extreme like in Arizona where

(01:11:40):
it's like, oh my god, or Nevada, Oh my god.
What's making it look worse is that Kamala Harris is
doing really badly. Democrats are not voting so and they
again vote early. They're not suddenly going to end up.

Speaker 1 (01:11:55):
I mean, rich today voday in Pennsylvania. And I know
people and ragging on Pennsylvania for this, but it's it.
This was an an extraordinarily tall mountain for me to climb,
to cobble together this mail and ballot group and raise
all this money that we've done here. But by the way,
like we just found out today that the Democrats only
have a three hundred and seventy nine thousand years lead

(01:12:17):
on returns that work in the gap every day. Now listen,
people are like, oh my god. Higher, they must have
been higher, over eight hundred and thirty thousand person lead
in twenty twenty. Yeah, it's so to your point, that's
exactly right. It's exactly right, is not. I mean, I'm
not counting them out. They can turn their voters out,

(01:12:40):
but it's it's it's.

Speaker 6 (01:12:42):
They already did for Hillary Clinton when early voting wasn't
even that prevalent. They are. They certainly did for Joe Biden.
And I think there's part of the equation we're forgetting here.

Speaker 1 (01:12:52):
Two parts.

Speaker 6 (01:12:53):
One is nobody voted for this woman. This was a
donor picked Hue aganda operation for the donors. They voted
for Joe Biden. She's a usurper, she's an illegitimate nominee. Like,
I agree, never forget that. And then number two, Number

(01:13:15):
two is uh, if you hesitated, well, I'm yeah, let's
leave it at this. There's a lot less there's a
lot less Trump hate today than there was in twenty twenty. Yeah. Sure,
there's still this group of people and they hate him,
and they hate him with the fire of a thousand sons,
but they're less. They're not impacting the normies the way

(01:13:37):
that they had been all those years ago. Trumps now
looked back at more favorably, and he's more popular now
than he has ever been. So it's very difficult to
motivate the peripheral voter, who you just like, are like
man orange man, bad dude, get that ballot in, Like
they're like, turn up yours, you're talking. You know that

(01:13:59):
that I'm not going to use the language they would use.
But it's like, I'm not voting for that bit. You know,
the dude was senile, she knew all about it. Like
that's a peripheral voter. I'm not voting for her. You
don't want my ballad, man, I may mark in Trump.
Get the hell off my porch, you know, Like that's
the way that, like you lied to these people. You're
gonna go knock on their door now again four years

(01:14:22):
from now and tell them and tell them they need
you to save the nation again. You know, Hitler's ascendant again.
Come on, bro, shit don't work again. It doesn't, you know, and.

Speaker 1 (01:14:33):
Rich I love your passion and your optimism, man, I
love it.

Speaker 6 (01:14:37):
Well again, you got to get these people to vote.
But Harry Entton finally was honest with his people today
and he said, look if next week on Wednesday, we're like, hey,
it's President elect Donald Trump. All the signs were there,
and I'm like thinking to myself, where the hell was this, Harry?
Why were you lying to everybody for weeks? You know,
like now people are staying in the live chat. You

(01:14:57):
look a lot better and healthier with good lighting. Why
thank you.

Speaker 1 (01:15:06):
God, you're such a maniac. Really tell us where we
can find you. We're way over time.

Speaker 6 (01:15:12):
Oh as always, I told you.

Speaker 1 (01:15:15):
You're not only fans.

Speaker 6 (01:15:16):
People's pun into dot Com.

Speaker 1 (01:15:18):
You're using those twenty pound dumbbells to get ready for
your only fans.

Speaker 6 (01:15:22):
Fifty coins and I lose the shirt People's locals dot Com.
All right, all right, we'll tell Laura that she may
pinp me out. Thank God I'm not married to with
Joe Biden like figure. She would never do that to me.
Thank the Lord.

Speaker 1 (01:15:42):
Rich, You're always awesome with your time, my friend. I'll
see you next.

Speaker 6 (01:15:45):
Week anytime, brother, So see your Rich.

Speaker 1 (01:15:48):
Take care. That is Savage Rich Barris, the best polster
in the business, giving us his take on the Final
Savage Wednesday before eleven Day. Folks, I've kept you a
long time, but I thought it was a important just
to give you a sense of what was going on
prior to this race coming to a close. Folks, before
we leave, smash that like button that little green thumb

(01:16:10):
beneath the video. So look, Rich just texted me. He's
still on. Someone just texts me Ralston simulation seventy percent
chance that Trump wins I'm not trying to make you
all complacent. Get your asses out and vote. Bring ten
people to the polls with you. In fact, make yourself

(01:16:30):
accountable the thousands of people who are watching this show
live and then listening to it thereafter. I'm asking you
to make yourself accountable for getting ten people to the polls.
If you think that people are going to be these
people that you'll be getting reaching out to, we're going
to vote for Republicans up and down the ballot, Get
out your phone and text them to have a plan

(01:16:52):
to get out on election day. It's only ten people.
Are you voting today? Do you have a plan? I'm
asking each in every one of you to do this, folks.
It is go time. This is the time where the
rubber meets the road. These final days, in the waning
days before this election, the task falls to all of
us to save this country. And my question for you

(01:17:15):
all is are you up to it? And I know
that you are. But make yourself accountable for getting ten
people to the polls on election day, folks, So make
sure you smash that like button on your way out.
We're almost a six hundred likes, which has never happened before.
On the show. Six hundred likes before the show closes
out would be a record, but smash that like button

(01:17:35):
on your way out. As always, folks, I will see
you tomorrow night. It's gonna be another amazing show that
we have planned. Don't forget about. Right night on Friday,
and then the final weekend, final weekend before election day.
All right, folks, God bless you all, God bless this
amazing country that we call home. Take care, good night,

(01:17:55):
and I will see you tomorrow night. In Battle Crew

Speaker 6 (01:18:00):
M