April 9, 2025 • 52 mins
In this conversation, Bryce Gill discusses the complexities of the current economic landscape, focusing on the implications of tariffs, globalization, and the impact of COVID-19 on supply chains and inflation. He emphasizes the historical context of trade policies, the necessity of reshoring manufacturing, and the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst market corrections. Gill also addresses concerns regarding pension funds and the broader global economic impacts of U.S. tariffs, providing insights into future trends and investment opportunities. In this conversation, Bryce Gill discusses the impact of tariffs on the economy, particularly in relation to the US and China. He highlights the challenges facing China's economy, including demographic shifts and trade wars. The discussion also touches on the advice for European leaders in navigating their economic relationships and the importance of building wealth for young men through discipline and consistent saving. Finally, Bryce shares insights on choosing the right everyday carry (EDC) firearm, emphasizing practicality and reliability.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - How America’s Industrial Might Was Gutted
08:50 - Economist Bryce Gill On Tariffs, Recession Risk & The Global Economy
40:39 - What Built America & A Call To Action
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
One, two, three, four. I want to tear for That's right,
You heard me right. You know why I want to
tear for because I'm sick and tired of industrialization being
overseas in our middle class and our young people not
being able to afford a damn house, build cars, have
steel plants. It's time we bring all that back. And
(00:20):
that's what these tariff wars are going to do. And
guess what We're going to tell you how by inviting
one of the top young economists out there, mister Bryce Gill,
onto the show today.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
This is the David Rutherford Show. A tariff is.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
A tax or duty imposed by a government on goods
and services that are imported into or exported out of
a country. It's typically used to regulate international trade, either
by raising the price of imported goods to protect domestic industries,
or by generating revenue for the government. There are two
(01:02):
main types. A fixed tariff, a set amount per unit,
like five dollars per barrel of oil in an advolorum tariff,
a percentage of the value, like ten percent of a
car's price. Guess what, It's time to get America back
on top and tariffs is going to be the way
(01:24):
we do it.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Now, what you have.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
To understand before everybody loses their mind on a regular basis.
That seems to be happening all over the place, even
to the point where the crazies are out there trying
to burn vehicles of the most productive American car company
that we've ever known.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Let's just not even talk about that at all. What
we do need to.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Talk about are where are the middle class jobs? Seriously,
I want you to tell us where the middle class
jobs have gone. I want you to post it below
on this segment of the show. I want you to
post it anywhere you can. You tell me in detail
when the American might of industrialization and production, when that
(02:15):
went away.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Now, I have a pretty good idea.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
I believe that the post World War two generation, the
greatest generation of all time. After they went over to Europe,
into the Pacific theater and kick some ass, what happened?
They came home, They went back to their factory jobs,
and what they do. They built this damned country into
(02:40):
being the most significantly productive country on the planet. How
we built cars, We manufactured steel, we mined, we developed oil,
We developed all different types of small businesses. Right, that's
what we do, and that's what made America great. Well,
(03:03):
fast forward seems somewhere around the late nineteen sixties and
early nineteen seventies, an old tricky dick decided to go
over to China and open up China's economy, probably in
the midst of one of the greatest tyrannical rules of
all town time in maose Dung. Some people say it's
forty million people. Some people say it's all hundred million
(03:25):
people that were annihilated because of communism.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Well, that makes sense.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
Let's make them our future global industrialized country. Right again,
once more, in the American history, we seem to have
this bizarre relationship and desire to want to part with
partner with the complete and utter antithesis of capitalism and
i e.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Communism.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Many people don't even know that in the nineteen twenties
and thirty American manufacturing a giants went over to Russia
and helped them reindustrialize after the Bolshevik Revolution, even and
then even leading up to World War Two. All different
types of relationships in America. In fact, there's a beautiful
(04:13):
book out there called Stalin's War that describes in detail
many hidden communists operating within the United States government. Right,
So again this bizarre relationship with communist countries. Well, obviously,
in the nineteen eighties, what we decide to do. We
decided to begin to offshore our factory jobs, which under
(04:37):
the Clinton administration seemed to explode even more after the
fall of Russia. There's a lot of brilliant guys out
there who talk about this transition. One of them is
Jeffrey Sachs. I think he's a brilliant guy. And because
he was there, I mean, he was on the ground
in Russia when they approached him and said, hey, help
us reindustrialize this nation out of the USSR into the
(04:59):
modern Ushian economy and country wanting their desire to join
in in capitalism internationally. Well, around those same times, what
we became the world number one empire, and what we
do we accelerated the the de evolution of American.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Prowess and might at home. That's right.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Think of all the people in your life, in particular,
if you were from the Midwest, or from the southern
region that was responsible, or even from the Northeast where
we had these profound manufacturing capabilities, well, guess what all
those places went away?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Think of Flint, Michigan.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
I ain't think of this beautiful little town that was
so integrated into the car industry has been utterly devastated,
down to the point where they're poisoning their own people
out of malfeasans and mismanagement. Right, that's what happens when
you attack the middle class. That's what happens when you
attack the very people that built this nation. And so
(06:05):
what do we need to do. We need to re
employ the next generation. Right, the greatest generation is pretty
much passing away their children. The baby boomers are on average,
what in their late sixties and or in mid seventies.
They are no longer working, although many of them because
of inflation, have had to go back to work because
(06:27):
whatever their money they're making on a broken social security
system is forcing them back into the workforce. It drives
me absolutely nuts to think about grandma and grandpa having
to be Walmart readers because their pension funds aren't paying
them enough. Now, I know what you're going to say,
You're gonna be like rut an Halt, buddy. These damn
(06:47):
tariffs are are whacking the hell out of the markets.
They're destroying these pension funds they're not these fixed income
accounts and all this it's destroying it. Listen, I'm going
to tell you guess what, we were almost twenty some
percent higher than the lows that we were in twenty
one twenty two in the markets. Right, twenty two is
(07:07):
an absolute calamity in the markets. Right, but that came back.
So are we off on the bottoms nowhere near? We're
way We're still way up. And also if you're not
familiar with the markets over the history of highs and
lows based on these different economic cycles, well then stand
by to stand by because today's guest is going to
be absolutely informative, not only about the tariff situation, but
(07:31):
also with what's going on with the history of the markets. Right.
My point I want you to understand, what today's episode
on The David Rutherford Show is designed to do is
to educate you in a more common sense approach. Right.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
That's what we're here to do on this show.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Is my job is to be a flash bang of
truth for you to help make give you a common
sense approach toing nite critical thinking so you can better
understand what's going on in the world's issues. My mission,
I want to get the middle class back to work.
I want to reindustrialize American might and prowess, and I
(08:11):
believe President Trump is doing that. Now we live in
this you know, scroll through world, and so everybody wants
it to happen yesterday. We're not even at one hundred
damn days yet, So slow your role, stand by and
get ready for what who I believe is one of
the best young economists that's out there in the world,
mister Bryce Gill, So stand by to stand by because
(08:36):
he's coming on the show.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Who Yah, Welcome to the David Rutherford Show.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Man. Have I got a big one for you today? Man?
Speaker 1 (08:55):
You want to talk about terror fors, you want to
talk about the war and the economy, you want to
talk warren elites. Well, guess what today I am bringing
on one of the best dudes I've ever met in
my wife, Bryce Gill, who's who's one of the top
economists for one of the biggest asset managed for management
firms in the country in the world. Uh. But my
favorite part about Bryce is uh is the fact that
(09:18):
he's a gorilla gun major and he's the man that
I go to when I'm looking at what next gun
bild I need to have what subgun's the coolest? What's
suppressor I have? And Jordan man if before we get
them on, can you just play that that that that
video for us real quick.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Brother. I can see you.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Out, ladies and gentlemen, the handlebar economists himself, Bryce Gill,
what's up?
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Brother?
Speaker 4 (09:53):
What's up? Dave? This is so fun man, I'm so
glad to be with you here today, and we couldn't
have picked a better time to do it. I mean,
the world is going crazy and people I think need
a little perspective on what's going on.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
So well, that's why you're here. So let's not dally
dally man. Let's jump right in. So let me ask
you this is Is this Trump waging war against our
adversaries from a national security perspector of a global economy reset?
Or is this really what I believe it is, which
is Trump waging war for the for the the average dude,
(10:30):
the person that works hard, the guy that doesn't have
a huge market portfolio or giant, you know, real estate portfolio,
and he's waging war for that dude against the elites
in the world.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
What do you think, man, it's it's I think it's
kind of both, to be honest with you. So, when
you think about tariffs and trade barriers and globalization and
everything else, a lot of this starts in World War
One and World War Two, especially post World War two.
When you think about it, we're the only ones that
didn't get bombed, right, Dave. So we're basically the monopoly
(11:06):
producers and exporters of everything after World War Two, and
we had a huge incentive to push an idea of
free trade. Right. We wanted everybody to lower their tariffairs.
We wanted to integrate the global community in trade, because hey,
when goods don't cross borders, soldiers will, as Friedrich Bostiat,
one of my favorite economists, always said, And so hey,
(11:28):
we pushed free trade. We integrated the world in commerce.
The United States was the monopoly producer and exporter of everything,
and you know, giving basically access to our consumer market
in the United States. It was a way to get
countries on our side in the Cold War as well. Right,
choose the United States, you get to sell the richest
people in the world. Choose the Soviets. We're locking you out.
(11:51):
And so over time, hey, trade barriers fall, we you know,
integrate the global community. But where things really started to
get crazy, I think and start affecting basically the middle
class or normal people in the United States was abster
the fall of the Soviet Union. You know, then ten
years after that China joins the WTO. When you think
(12:13):
about it big picture, like americot got access to all
this cheap labor and materials in a really short period
of time. We had the Internet, we had container shipping,
to the arbitrage at all. And so this is the
period like nineteen ninety to let's say twenty twenty, where
globalization goes into overdrive. We're basically outsourcing all our industrial
(12:35):
capacity to the rest of the world. The idea in
like maybe elite circles was, hey, let's take advantage of
all this cheap labor. We'll build up, like the middle classes,
a broad at the expense of our own middle class,
and it's great for us, it's great for our profits,
and hey, we'll give people cheap consumer goods. Kind of
on the other end, that was sort of the deal.
(12:56):
And at the time, remember it's like the unipolar moment, right,
there's no other major superpower to confront the United States,
So this felt like kind of a safe thing to do.
So value do we outsource a lot of our manufacturing
and things like electronics or automobiles or whatever. We also
outsourced manufacturer of like the entire defense industrial base, right wow,
And so I think now it's it's a reverse of this.
(13:19):
Right like thirty years the middle class has had to
compete with somebody in China making ten percent as much
an hour. Their wages really haven't grown because of this.
And on top of that, COVID exposed huge geopolitical risks
in our supply chains. And so now I think basically
both of these are playing in here. On one hand,
You've got a lot of people that are worry about
national security, that want to bring certain critical industries back
(13:42):
to the United States. And certainly a huge part of
Donald Trump's base was people voting for him as like
a backlash against globalization or elites essentially, you know, shipping
our industrial base overseas, profiting from it at the expense
of domestic labor. So it all sort of ties together,
to be honest, and it's a it's a really interesting
(14:04):
and basically long running story for the United States as
a superpower.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
I love how you frame the context that this is
you know, this has been manufactured.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
As a result of our own policy, right.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
I mean I think, you know, really giving people, especially
younger people, young young men out there that are trying
to find, you know, where am I going to find
my next job? Because for the last fifteen years, everybody's
been like, oh, learn to code.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Well guess what, AI's going to.
Speaker 4 (14:34):
Destroy it out.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
But they're out, They're gone, And so it's like, all right,
well what do I do? And if you, if you,
if you pay attention to one of my favorite people
on a planet, dirty Jobs Mike row you know, with
with close to seven hundred and fifty thousand available jobs
with h FAX plumbers, the whole thing, it's like, yeah,
but we we also need that ability for these people
(14:58):
to to to compete, eat in all those different places, right,
to be able to you know, begin their own businesses
so that they can im creuse some wealth and get
in the markets potentially. But I also know that and
based on just listening to you for last three years,
is is COVID really reset this in a way I
(15:20):
think people don't quite understand and the necessity of it,
right with the exposure of the supply chain issues, but
more importantly for from from what I understand is is
you know that one point what seven trillion dollar infusion
of money flooding into our our system.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
You know, how does that radical shift in.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
The M two number, How does that get us to
a place where you know, maybe the markets were going
to reset anyways, you know, or or you know, and
that this whole focus on tariffs might not be as
wealth founded as a lot of you know, the pundits
are making it believe, making us beleeve.
Speaker 4 (16:04):
Yeah. So, I we just went through the worst inflation
in forty years in the United States, and I just
think it's as an issue, been massively overcomplicated since the
COVID pandemic. Inflation is really pretty simple. At the end
of the day, it's just too much money chasing too
few goods. And so during COVID, we printed five trillion
dollars and then we shut down the global production system. Right,
(16:25):
there's just fewer goods and more dollars. So it's the
most textbook example of what would cause a surge in
inflation in the United States. Since then, inflation's improved a lot.
It's because we stopped printing money and we reopened the economy, right,
so it's pretty simple stuff. But with regards to like
the market correction we're having headed into this year, we're
(16:47):
at a company called First Trust. We're like the only
ones calling for a market correction on anyone on Wall Street.
I'm sure a lot of people have changed their forecasts now,
but you know, profits and interest rates are what drive
the market evaluations over time, and so we went from
being bullish on the market since like eighth nine to
change in our tune. And it's really just because interest
(17:08):
rates rose so much, and interest rates rose a lot
because we had the highest inflation in forty years, and
the Fed had to respond, right, and so COVID certainly
reset a lot of things. It reset not only the
economy or with all the reshoring, it changed the status
quo around globalization. It also changed, I guess a lot
of preconceived notions about the stock market. And there was
(17:31):
this idea Dave called the Fed put that has existed
for the past thirty years when we had a bond
bull market, which means interest rates were falling since the
early nineteen eighties, that anytime there was a problem in
the economy or in the stock market, the Federal Reserve
would come in and cut interest rates and save the day. Right,
(17:51):
and now the problem is, hey, they caused the worst
inflation in forty years. They basically have to sit on
the sidelines. Now they're not going to be able to
come to the rescue anymore. I think still a lot
of investors, and I travel around the country talking to
investors every day, a lot of investors had not been
able to, you know, essentially integrate this into their their
mindset that the Fed's not coming to rescue you. It's
(18:13):
just kind of Hey, that's why we're in the wild West.
That's why we have all this volatility happening. We got
to figure out our issues with the government budget, We
got to figure out inflation, we got to figure out
supply chains, and you know, we can't just print money
to solve our issues anymore.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
That's fascinating.
Speaker 1 (18:28):
Okay, So there's a market correction that you all been
predicting for a while, right, and because what tech? Those
seven tech companies they can't care continue carrying us.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
But is it the idea?
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Do you believe that the idea with Trump and the
administration is that if we put these tariffs out there
on the global economy, we give our producers of goods
and a much greater opportunity to get back in the game,
to get back.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
In the fight.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
And then also what he's he's I just read yesterday
that he's brought in seven trillion dollars of investment. I mean,
I think somebody in the Middle East brought has committed
a trillion dollars.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Now, that's all commitments. That's all like a lot of like, hey,
look at me on TV.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
I'm we're behind Trump because we either don't want to
get bombed or we want to work with them, you know.
And it's like, all right, it is is this the
push that you believe is feasible that this well take
place eventually? Or could it cost some more catastrophic outcomes?
Speaker 4 (19:34):
Yeah, So I'll touch you on the tariffs in a second,
but I'll just say, like, reshorting to the United States,
I think is happening regardless of if we have tariffs
or not. Okay, I think tarriffs obviously incentivized it to
happened faster. But the reality is, you know, COVID hits Okay,
it makes everybody question the status quo on globalization. It
was sort of a republican issue or like a maga
(19:55):
issue until COVID hit and then nobody could buy pa
you know, toilet paper and baby for formula, and now
everybody agrees, hey, this is a problem. It's very by
part is an issue. We passed the chipsacked the Inflation
Reduction Act to incentivize reshorting. Under Joe Biden. Okay, factory
construction is tripled in two years in the United States.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
So this is.
Speaker 4 (20:14):
Concretely happening in a very fast way. And so some
people I think still look at this is like, hey,
it's government policy or it's just like a response to COVID.
And what I really like try to emphasize to people
and why I've been talking about this since twenty sixteen
is just we went abroad and globalization. Part of it,
right is you know, world peace or the American Empire
(20:34):
or fighting the Soviets or whatever. But a huge part
of this stage.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
I love how you just I love that you just
brush over.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
We can touch on all that if you want, but
not in this one.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
Not I get you on in a week or two
and we'll we'll dig into that, right, But.
Speaker 4 (20:49):
Like, really like the huge thing that's and like here's
the thing, Like there's always rhetoric. There's always like a
you know, like a nice story we paint as a
veneer on top of like our economic interest a lot
of times. So I think the reality is the economic
interest behind globalization for the United States was an abundance
of cheap labor right all over the world. And the
(21:10):
reality is if you look at demographics globally, demographics are
peaking basically everywhere. Right China's population is going to fall
by forty percent through the end of the century. Wow,
South Korea is going to be like ninety percent of
the South Koreans are going to be gone by you know,
twenty one hundred or something.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
That's crazy.
Speaker 4 (21:28):
Thing in Eastern Europe, same thing in Vietnam, same thing
in all these places. And so what I would just
emphasize to people, and we'll talk about tariffs in a second,
is just the cheap labor is going away no matter what, okay,
And so if the supply goes down, the price goes up,
and so it doesn't make sense to make things in
China anymore. That's that's the real issue. And in a
(21:49):
lot of other places. And so the United States we
consume everything for the whole world, and We're looking at
this and saying, if we don't get the cheap labor
out of it, like, what's even the point of this deal.
We can just make it ourselves. So reshooring is going
to continue to happen no matter what, in my opinion,
because the cheap labor is going away. Now, how that's cool.
The tariffs, okay, are like the government policy around this
(22:11):
is an effort to basically get out front of this
trend and kind of control it from the front instead
of kind of getting pulled along from behind by like
the broader macroeconomic trying to peaking demographics. Okay, So tariffs,
what they do? You just tax stuff at the border
as it gets imported, and by doing that you make
it artificially more expensive. And so say, like you know,
(22:34):
the US Defense Department wants to put semiconductors in it's
like drones or hellfire missiles or whatever, and they're looking
at who's an option. Maybe Intel will sell you that
chip for fifty bucks, and maybe TSMC will sell it
to you for forty bucks if you tear off the
semiconductor at the border at twenty five percent. Now they're
the exact same price domestically for the Defense Department to buy.
(22:57):
They're probably going to go with the American maker Intel instead,
or TSMC could say, Hey, the Defense Department's a pretty
important client for us, maybe we should just build a
factory in the United States and that way you don't
have to worry about the tariffs anyway. And so the
reality is here, guy, is like, we have the huge
domestic market. We buy everything from the entire world basically,
(23:21):
and so we can throw our weight around a little
bit here and say, hey, we want more stuff made
in the United States. I don't think it's the end
of the world. It's interesting you mention all these like
investment commitments, Dave, because I was just on my Bloomberg
terminal this morning and there's a bunch of economists talking about, Hey,
this tariff war is going to cause like a global recession,
and I don't I wouldn't be surprised if it hurts China, right,
(23:42):
or it hurts like Malaysia or something. It probably will, frankly,
But the reality is, you know, they're saying, hey, companies
are going to pull back investment because of uncertainty in
the United States, and I would just really question that
assumption because the reality is again, factory construction is tripled
in two years in the United States. You have now
six trillion dollars or whatever of committed investment from different people.
(24:06):
It hasn't been spent. I got it. It's You're right,
a lot of it is pr but like it looks
to me like the tariffs are causing a huge wave
of investment by basically every observable metric. So I would
be very skeptical of claims that, hey, we're about to
go into recession because of tariffs in the United States.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
I love that. Thank you for saying that.
Speaker 4 (24:24):
Now.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
The one thing that obviously not obviously, but the thing
that kind of like the fact that we're we're we've
been at the precipice of a bear market for a while.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
It's like, okay, who's going to get hurt by that? Right?
Speaker 1 (24:40):
And the people that I think, for me, that I
worry most about are the people that are in all
those state pension funds, those federal pension funds. What do
you say to them with these market fluctuations, what do
you say to them in terms of, you know, whether
(25:00):
they're freaking out Because a lot of these people are
obviously on fixed income they're not sure. You know, these
investments are are the way with which they live. What
are you going to say to reassure these people that, hey,
this is a relatively short term thing in terms of
the over that I love. The one chart that you
(25:22):
guys always show is about, you know, how long recessions
actually last, the impact they have.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
What advice do you give to those people.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
That you know have their entire net worth in these
pension funds.
Speaker 4 (25:35):
Yeah, and we can touch on recession if you want
to in a second, because personally, I don't think we're
going to have a recession, but certainly the market has
had a correction here, Okay, I think we're down, like
on the S and P five hundred 're down twelve
or thirteen percent from the peak. Okay, And so guy, honestly,
I mean, if you just look at some of the
math on corrections in the stock market, this doesn't look
(25:57):
that scary, just to be honest, Okay, we get a
ten percent correction in the United States, like every eight months,
we get like a fifteen percent correction in the stock
market every I think sixteen months. We got a twenty
percent correction basically every three years. If you just look
at like the last one hundred years of the stock market,
right so, I don't look at what's happening right now
(26:18):
is really anything outside the ordinary. Again, I think we
came into the tear overvalued on the stock market just
based on profits and interest rates, and so I was
sort of expecting a correction.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
Now.
Speaker 4 (26:29):
Tariffs have added uncertainty and they've kind of been a
catalyst one hundred percent. But when I look at like
the fundamentals of the US economy, I don't see like
any of the five hundred wealthiest you know, companies in
the country going out of business because of tariffs, right so,
And like the earnings picture, I think the stock market's
earnings are going to go up this year still, uh so,
(26:52):
there might be some margin pressure from labor or tariffs
or whatever, But big picture here, you know, I think
this is a stock market, correct. I don't think this
is the end of the world. I think the problem,
Dave is we all have smartphones in our pockets and
the media ecosystem and by the way, we're on a podcast,
it's long form. This is an effort to combat like
(27:13):
the disease of short form information, Okay, but to get
eyeballs you basically present negative information because it's ten times
you know, as effective at getting eyeballs as positive information.
You make things as dramatic as possible. And so hey,
stock market correction, Trump Tariff's end of the world. Like,
I don't know, I personally think we're not going to
(27:35):
be talking about the stock market in like six months.
I just I think Donald Trump's back in office, a
correction's happened. This is not outside like empirically normal behavior
in the stock market at all.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Awesome.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Well, I mean that answers a lot of the other
questions that I was having. Is obviously your your beliefs.
It's not going to have a dramatic effect on the
US economy. But you did mention the effect on China
some other Southeast Asian countries, could disaffect European Union. Could
it affect the bricks countries? I mean, how is it
(28:09):
going to impact them?
Speaker 4 (28:12):
Yeah? So I guess first I'll start out by just saying, like,
let me contrast the United States is some of these
other places, quick, okay, because the reality is we have
a very self sufficient economy already in terms of like
overall economic activity back in like the eighteen hundreds, or
in World War One or whatever. We're an agricultural economy
and an industrial economy. We basically depend on exports for
(28:32):
a lot of our GDP, right, we make stuff and
shipping around the world. Today, Like seventy percent of the
US economy is services. It's me getting on a podcast
with you, somebody giving me accounting advice, me buying software,
you know, those types of getting a haircut. That's seventy
percent of consumer spending. So only thirty percent of consumer
(28:52):
spending is goods at all, and only a third of
those goods are actually imported goods. And so we're talking
about ten percent of consumer spending that's actually directly affected
by tariffs. And by the way, like I don't think
most people know thirty percent of our imports are from
Canada and Mexico, even though we talking about twenty five
percent tariffs on all of them. And there's been all
(29:12):
this debate around Canada Mexico, like the vast majority of
what they import to the United States comes in duty
free because of USMCA, we're not actually tariffing very much
from Canada Mexico right now, which I don't think is
renegotiated NAFTA we did it in Donald Trump's first from
the office.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
Got it. Got it?
Speaker 4 (29:30):
Okay. So you know, if you look at it, like
literally seven percent of like consumer spending is actually affected
by tariffs right now, So it's pretty small. The best estimates.
I like to look at the Tax Foundation. They're very
anti tax, anti tariff think tank. By the way, I'm
not cherry picking things. They say the tariffs that have
been instituted will have a negative point eight percent impact
(29:52):
on GDP. Wow, not even a one percent decline.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
That's crazy.
Speaker 4 (29:57):
COVID was minus ten percent, the oeight to nine financial
crisis was minus five percent to GDP. So we're talking
a fraction of those things. And again I think they're
modeling a worst case scenario that does not include a
huge booming investment because of the tariffs. Okay. So I'll
start out there and say the America, we're just not
really that dependent on foreign trade for the overall economy. Okay.
(30:19):
When you contrast that with like China for example, or
Germany for example, or say like Vietnam or Malaysia, those
economies or Japan, those economies are very export dependent. They
produce a lot and export it and then they have
a very high savings rate. They don't actually consume all
that they produce, right, Whereas we're the opposite. We have
(30:41):
a high consumption rate in a low savings right, and
we buy from the rest of the world. So if
we just start making more for ourselves.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
That's all those late night Amazon purchases, right.
Speaker 4 (30:51):
Yeah, which are about to get a lot more expensive.
By the way, Like you look at the total teub
on China is like sixty percent right.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
Now, which oh my god, insane.
Speaker 4 (30:58):
But you know, the big picture is, yeah, they need
to export to us because we're the ones that buy everything.
And so what is Germany going to do? What are
what's China going to do? What's Japan gonna do if
they lose their biggest export market. Basically, they got to
start making more stuff for their own people and people
actually have to go out and spend money there, and
that's you get a little bit more balanced economy. So
(31:21):
I think that's what China has to do here. They
just got to actually make things for their own own
people and boost their own people's like standard of living,
and that's been talked about for years and they just
haven't been able to do it.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
So what I mean, this sounds like actually, I mean,
obviously the way I kind of view the world is
through a geostrategic mindset, right, just from my background, this
actually sounds like it could be a very positive impact
on gaining a greater leverage against China as it relates
(31:53):
to all the little you know, the little chirping we
hear are out there about war in Taiwan and semiconductors.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
And all this stuff.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
I mean, this sounds like we can gain a pretty
significant amount of leverage against China, especially with the fact
that you know, their economy, if I'm not mistaken, is
not great anyways.
Speaker 4 (32:17):
Correct, Well, yeah, so China. You know, their economy grew
ten percent a year for decades, right because one, their
demographics were booming and there's a lot more people every year.
And two they just imported technology from the rest of
the world. Maybe that's like a polite way to say it, right,
They stole a lot of technology too, right, So the
combination of that makes GDP boom. You go from like
(32:38):
an ox Dron carriage to like a John Deere tractor
in your field. You have to invent that, you just
import it from the rest of the world, right, And
so the problem China has now is Okay, all of
a sudden, other demographics have peaked and started to decline
because of the one child policy and a bunch of
other stuff that goes into like the nitty gritty of demographics.
But on top of that, they're in a trade war
(32:59):
with like basically the whole world. Okay, so US tariffs,
I know this is like in the news right now, Okay,
but China's just been in a giant trade war with
Europe in the past year. Europe put one hundred percent
tariff on Chinese electric cars. Wowkay, So you know they're
losing export markets everywhere. Basically everyone's saying, hey, we don't
want to export like our high technology stuff to China
(33:21):
anymore because we don't trust them. And so China's getting
whacked not only on demographics, but they're getting whacked on
technology access too, And so yeah, there are economies in
huge trouble. In my opinion, people might have heard of
like the ever Grande real estate collapse. Basically, normal Chinese
people don't get access to the stock market. Okay, you
got like a bank account, or you can buy real estate.
(33:43):
That's how you invest, Okay, So everybody went out and
bought like these condos, or they'd like take out a
mortgage for like a building that wasn't even built yet.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
The ghost cities, right, yeah, the ghost cities.
Speaker 4 (33:54):
And now everybody over there is looking around and saying
there's going to be forty percent less people in like
sixty years. Who am I supposed to sell this condo to?
Speaker 1 (34:02):
Right?
Speaker 4 (34:02):
So what's happened is all the real estate values are crashing.
It's like two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine
one steroids over there. So China's a huge trouble. They've
got a lot of problems.
Speaker 1 (34:12):
Wow, that that's now, I think, you know, that's the
context that that that most people are are as you said,
you know, whether it's your you know how fast you're
screaming through X right now.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
To be able to stop.
Speaker 1 (34:26):
And and and give this some some context is significant.
And that's why I love listening to you as much
as I do. Dude, you just are you have that
breadth of knowledge. So all right, the last question for
this segment. You know, and obviously we're going to have
additional segments if for those who want to, you know,
follow us on Patreon and some other places. You know,
(34:47):
but for this segment right now, what I what I
really want to do is kind of end with you know,
taking the opposing side for you for a second. And
and and really say, all right, all right, Bryce, your
advice European Union leaders right now, you're advising the IMF,
you're advising the bricks nations, right what do.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
You tell them on.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
How to evaluate this or how to combat this or
what are you saying to those groups of people right now?
Speaker 4 (35:21):
Yeah, I'd say, hey, listen, the Americans have had unilaterally
low tariff barriers for a long time. They've really benefited
from globalization. We all have. And the reality is when
we look out there, a lot of the economic underpinnings
of globalization are starting to fall apart. Some of our
biggest export markets in the European Union are like Russia
(35:42):
and China, and we've become reliant on potentially some like
geopolitically unstable you know, sources of income. And so I
think we're basically at a point where, hey, it's like
America is telling you to choose. It's either you choose
China or you choose the West.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Wow.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
And so I don't envy Europe for this decision. I mean,
they're in a tough place. By the way, they're the
Middle Continent, right, they're between east and West, and so
they've always been. But I think we need to come
to some type of agreement with Europe. Maybe it's that
they take care of more of their own defense and
we make some deals on like you know, the auto
industry tariffs or other kind of non tariff barriers. But
(36:24):
I would advise Europe to probably make a deal with
the United States. I think the United States has a
lot of natural advantages. I think we have a lot
more values in common than Europe does. And given the
way like the real world's reshaping, there's like a rising
eastern block. Again, which side does Europe want to be on?
Do they want to be on the side of the
United States and the West or on the East. And
(36:45):
they'll probably kind of play both sides to some extent.
I don't again forgrudge them for that, given their geographical location.
But this is what this tariff announcement by Donald Trump is.
It's basically saying, hey, we have our core of North America, USMCA,
and now we're going after everybody else and saying make
a choice. It's the United States or it's China. And
(37:06):
you know, Peru, if you want to export all your
fruit from the Sacred Valley up to Texas in the
grocery stores, then you can't hire China to build all
your infrastructure. It's not going to work like that anymore.
You can't have your cake and eat it to pick
a side. So I think we're gonna have to pick
a side.
Speaker 1 (37:22):
Basically, this is like, this is the greatest news that
I think people could hear, right is is this is
finally giving us a little bit more leverage by our
using our economy, the economic engine of America, which.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
Is by far the greatest on the planet.
Speaker 1 (37:42):
And don't let any of these little squawk boxers over
here and over here detract you from that. The reality
is is we have the greatest economic machine that has
ever been created in human history. And this is part
of that plan to regain that whole thing. All right, Bryce, man,
I you know before I I let you go for this,
this spart right now, is I just want I gotta
(38:05):
have you give your advice. All right, what's the best
sub gun that's out there? And it could just describe
what makes you happy when you're on the range and
you're going big with a subgun.
Speaker 4 (38:20):
Man, the best sub gun out there right now? That's
such a good question. I mean, honestly, I've just am
a sucker for the classics.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
Man.
Speaker 4 (38:27):
I think I like the MP five K the best
of anything. I wish they would like remake it with
maybe a bigger magwell funnel and maybe a little bit
better ergonomics on the grip and stuff. But anybody that
needs like a bolt release on their gun, like everything
doesn't have to be an Air fifteen. That's kind of
how I feel about it. The you know, the aesthetics
(38:49):
of the MP five, the ergonomics of the MP five
pulling back the charging head of locking it in, charging
a new mag and doing the slap like, it's so enjoyable.
So I would vote the MP five K. Honestly, I
think it's still the best subgun there is.
Speaker 1 (39:02):
There's just there's a there's a different level of h
TAC tech. What the tac tiledness of the MP five right,
as well as the accuracy that's son of a bitch, man.
It's like my favorite gun I've ever shot as well too, man,
and you just can't beat it in the house for sure,
that's right, right man?
Speaker 2 (39:20):
Uh, where can people find you? Where they? Where?
Speaker 1 (39:24):
You know?
Speaker 2 (39:24):
Again, who do you work for? Where can people find you?
Speaker 1 (39:27):
And and just uh, you know what do you have
coming up in your life right now?
Speaker 4 (39:33):
Yeah? So if you want to find my work, I'm
an economist of a company called First Trust Portfolios. You
can search the first Trust Economics Blog. We post everything
we write there, which is basically any economic data that
comes out. We're writing updates on it. All that stuff
is available for free. Everything's one page, easy to read,
easy to share. So I think those a great resource.
(39:53):
You can just search my name in Google. I do
a lot of interviews like this. They're kind of all
over the internet. I've also got an exic as well.
It's Daddy Fat stats.
Speaker 1 (40:05):
Wich.
Speaker 4 (40:05):
If anybody's an outcast fan, it's a big boy, right,
Daddy fat Stacks. But because I look at data, it's
Daddy Fat Stats.
Speaker 2 (40:15):
Dude. I love you so much, it's not even funny.
I'm telling you what I.
Speaker 1 (40:20):
Oh my god, ladies and gentlemen, mister Bryce Gil, thank you, brother.
Speaker 5 (40:24):
I appreciate it. Thanks, welcome back.
Speaker 4 (40:40):
Now.
Speaker 1 (40:41):
If if you were like me and you just listen
to Bryce Gil you're blown away because the data that
he shared with us is undeniable. And what it proves
is that America still is and and my estimation will
always be what the benchmark economy world is well, at
(41:01):
least if if we can maintain our prowess as what
as not only the most financially sound with our markets
and our whatever, but because of the companies that keep
America going, because of those companies that set the standard
for production. Uh and then also because of the initiative
(41:22):
that that Trump and his cabinet are going to do
with these tariffs, which is to bring back the industrialized
might of America. And if we can do that, then
guess what. Then you and your wife, you and your friends,
You're going to have a well paying job that delivers
a powerful pension, that delivers you opportunity to have the
(41:44):
American dream, which is to you know, have a wife,
have children, or or have a job that pays you well,
that enables you to have a house and a community
that's that's supportive and really kind of to reshape what
the Mamerican myth uh at what we should call now
the American myth back into the actualization of the American
(42:07):
dream and that's possible, and it's possible if you get committed.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
So I just I'm blown away.
Speaker 1 (42:13):
Jordi, what do you think about Bryce Man? I mean,
if did he impact you?
Speaker 2 (42:18):
I mean you're a young man.
Speaker 1 (42:19):
Did he get you all fired up on how bad
ass America is?
Speaker 4 (42:22):
Yeah? Absolutely?
Speaker 2 (42:24):
Also, I just never.
Speaker 6 (42:25):
Heard some of the facts that he was talking about.
Like I thought it was interesting him saying that the
onshooring is there's a wave of onshooring in America that's happening,
you know, with the tariffs, without the tariffs, Like this
is just in the country's blood right now, and there's
a there's a big movement behind that, and it just
kind of shows how important that is.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Man.
Speaker 1 (42:47):
I learned a lot and I love that that that's
the positive outlook of of what happened from COVID. If
if you know, other than you know, millions of people
out there getting red pilled for or you know, the
reality is is that we've come to the realization that
we cannot count on the supply chain from China, and
(43:09):
what we are going to do is we're going to
count on our own supply chain. We're going to start
to build America, right, building a made in America is
going to be a real thing instead of assembled in America,
which drives me nuts, but it is what it is,
right all right. So you know, one of the cool
aspects that we really want to do at the end,
the final kind of segment or closing segment. And and
(43:31):
thanks to Jeordi being the musician that you are, buddy,
we're gonna call this the coda section.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
Now describe this a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (43:39):
What is a code of for these folks and for
all you don't know, Jordi is a musician at heart.
Speaker 2 (43:44):
He's a true artist, just like me. So, Jeordie, what's
a coda?
Speaker 6 (43:48):
Well, if I can remember back to my music school education,
the coda is the ending section of a musical piece,
and it's oftentimes a little bit different than anything else
you heard in that composition.
Speaker 4 (43:59):
And so there's the whole piece, it's.
Speaker 6 (44:00):
Going through its peaks and valleys, and then it's like
a little bonus at the end that they hit you
with right before you go. So that's what this section is.
I thought it's a good name. Bring back some multiple
music terms.
Speaker 1 (44:10):
You know, let's go led Zeppelin, all right, that's just
my gen X right there. And maybe I'll review led
Zeppelin in the future in one of the code sections
that would be apropo. But in this one, what we
want to do is we're going to call it the
Vintage hard Story, right, and what we want to we
want to highlight are the people who were those old
(44:31):
school people who worked in the steel mills, who built
the skyscrapers in New York and Chicago and all over
the place that really exemplified the industrial might of the
American worker.
Speaker 2 (44:45):
Right. Those are the people right with their.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Dirty hands and their bad backs and the covered and
soot from the coal mines.
Speaker 2 (44:53):
You know, those are the men of.
Speaker 1 (44:55):
This country that we owe a profound amount of a
debt and gratitude because we would not be here without them. Jordi,
pull up, pull up that one picture of the steel
mill there.
Speaker 2 (45:09):
Yeah, here you go and boom oh man.
Speaker 1 (45:12):
So you look at that and you look at those
dudes right there. Man, do you know how hot that
furnace was? Do you know how heavy those those steel
pokers were? Do you know do you realize that those
long shifts twelve hours in a steel mill and what
that does to your body, what it does to your focus.
How dangerous all that was. But you know what, those
(45:33):
men woke up. They didn't bitch, they didn't complain, they
didn't they weren't angry because why because they were making
a good living. They were able to support their families.
They were able to send their kids to college, the
first kids to ever go to college ever.
Speaker 2 (45:48):
And those jobs were real jobs.
Speaker 1 (45:50):
That made an impact that changed America for what it
is today. Well not totally what is, but what built America,
what it's become is a whole nother thing that will
get into it. Another code of session. All right, Well,
how about my other favorite? What, Jordy, what was the
other one we talked about?
Speaker 2 (46:05):
That other great one is the classic one right here?
The god is.
Speaker 6 (46:12):
That what your lunch break looks like?
Speaker 2 (46:15):
Not since military.
Speaker 1 (46:20):
For sure, but now, I mean you you look at
those guys and they're having lunch. What a couple maybe
five hundred feet up in the air, uh and probably
a stage photograph, but the representation of what it is.
And you got another one for me of guys actually
doing work up there.
Speaker 6 (46:36):
Here's them just hanging out up there doing some work.
Speaker 2 (46:39):
That's right. I don't I don't see many safety lines.
Speaker 1 (46:43):
Right, I don't see a hard hat, I don't see anything.
What I see is just sheer, courage and determination right
to build something out of nothing.
Speaker 2 (46:53):
And that's what we need. We need people.
Speaker 1 (46:55):
Especially you young folks out there. We need young men
out there. We need you to stand up and say,
you know what you know. I need to get my
hands dirty, I need to strengthen my back. I need
to build something. And if you don't want to go
work for anybody out there, a big construction conglomerate managed
by some private equity firm, that's whatever, then start your
(47:17):
own construction company. I mean, I've got a guy who
lives cross street from me, my neighbor, who you know,
I love, dearly man. This young man is, you know,
just thirty years old, and he works seven days a week,
and he works for a local builder and he's out
there managing fourteen fifteen building projects at his age. And
a guy works his butt off, and so that gives
(47:40):
me hope. But that's available out there to young people,
and you just have to feel the inspiration for taking
hold of your future with your bare hands. And that's
a powerful thing to do. So what I if I
can just inspire you man, to go back and sit
with those stories of of of those men and women
(48:01):
who'll build America in particularly those hard men that were
on those skyscrapers, that wear those steel mills, and in
those coal mines and out on those oil platforms. And
they're still out there, but their numbers are dwindling. And
so man, if you have any aspiration of being hard
and really getting in and making the America great again,
(48:23):
we need you to roger up and step into the fight,
if you will, to step on on that ledge with
your toes dangling, with your safety strap and your hard
hat on, and to help us build America.
Speaker 2 (48:34):
All right, that's my thing. Now.
Speaker 1 (48:36):
If you've enjoyed this show, you enjoyed what we're bringing
to you, please don't forget to like the show right,
make a comment, right, subscribe to the podcast, share it
with five of your friends or two of your friends.
Speaker 2 (48:51):
I don't want to be like one of those lame
like threads. Man.
Speaker 1 (48:54):
If you share this thing with ten of your friends,
you're gonna make a million dollars in thirty days. I
can't pro promise you that, but what I can promise
you that if they're red blooded Americans. They're going to
listen to this, they're gonna get fired up, and they're
gonna feel good about what our future looks like.
Speaker 2 (49:09):
And that's what we want to do here on this podcast.
Speaker 1 (49:13):
So like subscribe, we're available on the entire place, all
social media, all the different places you can consume content.
You can follow us at David Rutherford Show and that's
on YouTube, Instagram, Patreon, rumble tic Tech, all the podcast apps, Apple, Spotify,
(49:35):
all of them out there, and then if you want
to follow the show on x it's at d Rutherford Show.
At d Rutherford Show. It seems some some poor sap
out there stole the rest of it from me, but
that's all right. We'll get it one of these days hopefully.
And if you want to follow me on all social media, platfs.
(49:56):
My personal stuff is at Team frog Logic. It's David
Rutherford at Team frog Logic all right. Also too, this
is a big one.
Speaker 2 (50:05):
Listen.
Speaker 1 (50:06):
We're dependent and independent media. We are dependent on you
for much of our for all of our success, but sometimes,
and more importantly, we're also dependent upon you to reach
out to us and share with us something that's got
you fired up.
Speaker 2 (50:24):
If you've got a news story.
Speaker 1 (50:26):
You know somebody that's got a story they can't get
it out on regular news channels or on other larger platforms.
We're not afraid to take a look at it. Please,
if you want to send any new story, idea or
someone special in interview, a hero, you know, someone who's
vintage arge, your grandpa, your uncle, your aunt, something like that,
(50:49):
or just some you know corruption that you've discovered in
your school system or at at your job, or wherever
it might be. Please, I want you to email Jordi
at David Rutherford dot com. That's Jordi at David Rutherford
dot com. And if your story is epic and it's great,
we're gonna bring you on the show. We're gonna interview,
(51:09):
You're gonna let you tell your story to our audience
and to hope that we can help you and help
your endeavors. Also, if there's anything that you'd like me
to take a look at out there, do a deep
dive in. If you've got recommendations for things you'd like
to hear, please do the same. Go ahead and email Jordie.
That's j O. R. D Y at David Rutherford dot com.
(51:34):
All right, my man, what do you think Jordie is
at it for today?
Speaker 6 (51:38):
Good show, good show, I'm fired awesome, learned a lot,
Do it again next time.
Speaker 2 (51:45):
You got it all right once again.
Speaker 1 (51:49):
If you want to clear up the tsunami of information
out there, then you join me, because I'm gonna be
your flashbang of truth.
Speaker 2 (51:57):
This is the David Rutherford Show. Oo yah man
One, two, three, four. I want to tear for That's right,
You heard me right. You know why I want to
tear for because I'm sick and tired of industrialization being
overseas in our middle class and our young people not
being able to afford a damn house, build cars, have
steel plants. It's time we bring all that back. And
(00:20):
that's what these tariff wars are going to do. And
guess what We're going to tell you how by inviting
one of the top young economists out there, mister Bryce Gill,
onto the show today.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
This is the David Rutherford Show. A tariff is.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
A tax or duty imposed by a government on goods
and services that are imported into or exported out of
a country. It's typically used to regulate international trade, either
by raising the price of imported goods to protect domestic industries,
or by generating revenue for the government. There are two
(01:02):
main types. A fixed tariff, a set amount per unit,
like five dollars per barrel of oil in an advolorum tariff,
a percentage of the value, like ten percent of a
car's price. Guess what, It's time to get America back
on top and tariffs is going to be the way
(01:24):
we do it.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Now, what you have.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
To understand before everybody loses their mind on a regular basis.
That seems to be happening all over the place, even
to the point where the crazies are out there trying
to burn vehicles of the most productive American car company
that we've ever known.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Let's just not even talk about that at all. What
we do need to.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Talk about are where are the middle class jobs? Seriously,
I want you to tell us where the middle class
jobs have gone. I want you to post it below
on this segment of the show. I want you to
post it anywhere you can. You tell me in detail
when the American might of industrialization and production, when that
(02:15):
went away.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Now, I have a pretty good idea.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
I believe that the post World War two generation, the
greatest generation of all time. After they went over to Europe,
into the Pacific theater and kick some ass, what happened?
They came home, They went back to their factory jobs,
and what they do. They built this damned country into
(02:40):
being the most significantly productive country on the planet. How
we built cars, We manufactured steel, we mined, we developed oil,
We developed all different types of small businesses. Right, that's
what we do, and that's what made America great. Well,
(03:03):
fast forward seems somewhere around the late nineteen sixties and
early nineteen seventies, an old tricky dick decided to go
over to China and open up China's economy, probably in
the midst of one of the greatest tyrannical rules of
all town time in maose Dung. Some people say it's
forty million people. Some people say it's all hundred million
(03:25):
people that were annihilated because of communism.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Well, that makes sense.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
Let's make them our future global industrialized country. Right again,
once more, in the American history, we seem to have
this bizarre relationship and desire to want to part with
partner with the complete and utter antithesis of capitalism and
i e.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Communism.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Many people don't even know that in the nineteen twenties
and thirty American manufacturing a giants went over to Russia
and helped them reindustrialize after the Bolshevik Revolution, even and
then even leading up to World War Two. All different
types of relationships in America. In fact, there's a beautiful
(04:13):
book out there called Stalin's War that describes in detail
many hidden communists operating within the United States government. Right,
So again this bizarre relationship with communist countries. Well, obviously,
in the nineteen eighties, what we decide to do. We
decided to begin to offshore our factory jobs, which under
(04:37):
the Clinton administration seemed to explode even more after the
fall of Russia. There's a lot of brilliant guys out
there who talk about this transition. One of them is
Jeffrey Sachs. I think he's a brilliant guy. And because
he was there, I mean, he was on the ground
in Russia when they approached him and said, hey, help
us reindustrialize this nation out of the USSR into the
(04:59):
modern Ushian economy and country wanting their desire to join
in in capitalism internationally. Well, around those same times, what
we became the world number one empire, and what we
do we accelerated the the de evolution of American.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Prowess and might at home. That's right.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Think of all the people in your life, in particular,
if you were from the Midwest, or from the southern
region that was responsible, or even from the Northeast where
we had these profound manufacturing capabilities, well, guess what all
those places went away?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Think of Flint, Michigan.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
I ain't think of this beautiful little town that was
so integrated into the car industry has been utterly devastated,
down to the point where they're poisoning their own people
out of malfeasans and mismanagement. Right, that's what happens when
you attack the middle class. That's what happens when you
attack the very people that built this nation. And so
(06:05):
what do we need to do. We need to re
employ the next generation. Right, the greatest generation is pretty
much passing away their children. The baby boomers are on average,
what in their late sixties and or in mid seventies.
They are no longer working, although many of them because
of inflation, have had to go back to work because
(06:27):
whatever their money they're making on a broken social security
system is forcing them back into the workforce. It drives
me absolutely nuts to think about grandma and grandpa having
to be Walmart readers because their pension funds aren't paying
them enough. Now, I know what you're going to say,
You're gonna be like rut an Halt, buddy. These damn
(06:47):
tariffs are are whacking the hell out of the markets.
They're destroying these pension funds they're not these fixed income
accounts and all this it's destroying it. Listen, I'm going
to tell you guess what, we were almost twenty some
percent higher than the lows that we were in twenty
one twenty two in the markets. Right, twenty two is
(07:07):
an absolute calamity in the markets. Right, but that came back.
So are we off on the bottoms nowhere near? We're
way We're still way up. And also if you're not
familiar with the markets over the history of highs and
lows based on these different economic cycles, well then stand
by to stand by because today's guest is going to
be absolutely informative, not only about the tariff situation, but
(07:31):
also with what's going on with the history of the markets. Right.
My point I want you to understand, what today's episode
on The David Rutherford Show is designed to do is
to educate you in a more common sense approach. Right.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
That's what we're here to do on this show.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Is my job is to be a flash bang of
truth for you to help make give you a common
sense approach toing nite critical thinking so you can better
understand what's going on in the world's issues. My mission,
I want to get the middle class back to work.
I want to reindustrialize American might and prowess, and I
(08:11):
believe President Trump is doing that. Now we live in
this you know, scroll through world, and so everybody wants
it to happen yesterday. We're not even at one hundred
damn days yet, So slow your role, stand by and
get ready for what who I believe is one of
the best young economists that's out there in the world,
mister Bryce Gill, So stand by to stand by because
(08:36):
he's coming on the show.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Who Yah, Welcome to the David Rutherford Show.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Man. Have I got a big one for you today? Man?
Speaker 1 (08:55):
You want to talk about terror fors, you want to
talk about the war and the economy, you want to
talk warren elites. Well, guess what today I am bringing
on one of the best dudes I've ever met in
my wife, Bryce Gill, who's who's one of the top
economists for one of the biggest asset managed for management
firms in the country in the world. Uh. But my
favorite part about Bryce is uh is the fact that
(09:18):
he's a gorilla gun major and he's the man that
I go to when I'm looking at what next gun
bild I need to have what subgun's the coolest? What's
suppressor I have? And Jordan man if before we get
them on, can you just play that that that that
video for us real quick.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Brother. I can see you.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Out, ladies and gentlemen, the handlebar economists himself, Bryce Gill,
what's up?
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Brother?
Speaker 4 (09:53):
What's up? Dave? This is so fun man, I'm so
glad to be with you here today, and we couldn't
have picked a better time to do it. I mean,
the world is going crazy and people I think need
a little perspective on what's going on.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
So well, that's why you're here. So let's not dally
dally man. Let's jump right in. So let me ask
you this is Is this Trump waging war against our
adversaries from a national security perspector of a global economy reset?
Or is this really what I believe it is, which
is Trump waging war for the for the the average dude,
(10:30):
the person that works hard, the guy that doesn't have
a huge market portfolio or giant, you know, real estate portfolio,
and he's waging war for that dude against the elites
in the world.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
What do you think, man, it's it's I think it's
kind of both, to be honest with you. So, when
you think about tariffs and trade barriers and globalization and
everything else, a lot of this starts in World War
One and World War Two, especially post World War two.
When you think about it, we're the only ones that
didn't get bombed, right, Dave. So we're basically the monopoly
(11:06):
producers and exporters of everything after World War Two, and
we had a huge incentive to push an idea of
free trade. Right. We wanted everybody to lower their tariffairs.
We wanted to integrate the global community in trade, because hey,
when goods don't cross borders, soldiers will, as Friedrich Bostiat,
one of my favorite economists, always said, And so hey,
(11:28):
we pushed free trade. We integrated the world in commerce.
The United States was the monopoly producer and exporter of everything,
and you know, giving basically access to our consumer market
in the United States. It was a way to get
countries on our side in the Cold War as well. Right,
choose the United States, you get to sell the richest
people in the world. Choose the Soviets. We're locking you out.
(11:51):
And so over time, hey, trade barriers fall, we you know,
integrate the global community. But where things really started to
get crazy, I think and start affecting basically the middle
class or normal people in the United States was abster
the fall of the Soviet Union. You know, then ten
years after that China joins the WTO. When you think
(12:13):
about it big picture, like americot got access to all
this cheap labor and materials in a really short period
of time. We had the Internet, we had container shipping,
to the arbitrage at all. And so this is the
period like nineteen ninety to let's say twenty twenty, where
globalization goes into overdrive. We're basically outsourcing all our industrial
(12:35):
capacity to the rest of the world. The idea in
like maybe elite circles was, hey, let's take advantage of
all this cheap labor. We'll build up, like the middle classes,
a broad at the expense of our own middle class,
and it's great for us, it's great for our profits,
and hey, we'll give people cheap consumer goods. Kind of
on the other end, that was sort of the deal.
(12:56):
And at the time, remember it's like the unipolar moment, right,
there's no other major superpower to confront the United States,
So this felt like kind of a safe thing to do.
So value do we outsource a lot of our manufacturing
and things like electronics or automobiles or whatever. We also
outsourced manufacturer of like the entire defense industrial base, right wow,
And so I think now it's it's a reverse of this.
(13:19):
Right like thirty years the middle class has had to
compete with somebody in China making ten percent as much
an hour. Their wages really haven't grown because of this.
And on top of that, COVID exposed huge geopolitical risks
in our supply chains. And so now I think basically
both of these are playing in here. On one hand,
You've got a lot of people that are worry about
national security, that want to bring certain critical industries back
(13:42):
to the United States. And certainly a huge part of
Donald Trump's base was people voting for him as like
a backlash against globalization or elites essentially, you know, shipping
our industrial base overseas, profiting from it at the expense
of domestic labor. So it all sort of ties together,
to be honest, and it's a it's a really interesting
(14:04):
and basically long running story for the United States as
a superpower.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
I love how you frame the context that this is
you know, this has been manufactured.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
As a result of our own policy, right.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
I mean I think, you know, really giving people, especially
younger people, young young men out there that are trying
to find, you know, where am I going to find
my next job? Because for the last fifteen years, everybody's
been like, oh, learn to code.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Well guess what, AI's going to.
Speaker 4 (14:34):
Destroy it out.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
But they're out, They're gone, And so it's like, all right,
well what do I do? And if you, if you,
if you pay attention to one of my favorite people
on a planet, dirty Jobs Mike row you know, with
with close to seven hundred and fifty thousand available jobs
with h FAX plumbers, the whole thing, it's like, yeah,
but we we also need that ability for these people
(14:58):
to to to compete, eat in all those different places, right,
to be able to you know, begin their own businesses
so that they can im creuse some wealth and get
in the markets potentially. But I also know that and
based on just listening to you for last three years,
is is COVID really reset this in a way I
(15:20):
think people don't quite understand and the necessity of it,
right with the exposure of the supply chain issues, but
more importantly for from from what I understand is is
you know that one point what seven trillion dollar infusion
of money flooding into our our system.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
You know, how does that radical shift in.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
The M two number, How does that get us to
a place where you know, maybe the markets were going
to reset anyways, you know, or or you know, and
that this whole focus on tariffs might not be as
wealth founded as a lot of you know, the pundits
are making it believe, making us beleeve.
Speaker 4 (16:04):
Yeah. So, I we just went through the worst inflation
in forty years in the United States, and I just
think it's as an issue, been massively overcomplicated since the
COVID pandemic. Inflation is really pretty simple. At the end
of the day, it's just too much money chasing too
few goods. And so during COVID, we printed five trillion
dollars and then we shut down the global production system. Right,
(16:25):
there's just fewer goods and more dollars. So it's the
most textbook example of what would cause a surge in
inflation in the United States. Since then, inflation's improved a lot.
It's because we stopped printing money and we reopened the economy, right,
so it's pretty simple stuff. But with regards to like
the market correction we're having headed into this year, we're
(16:47):
at a company called First Trust. We're like the only
ones calling for a market correction on anyone on Wall Street.
I'm sure a lot of people have changed their forecasts now,
but you know, profits and interest rates are what drive
the market evaluations over time, and so we went from
being bullish on the market since like eighth nine to
change in our tune. And it's really just because interest
(17:08):
rates rose so much, and interest rates rose a lot
because we had the highest inflation in forty years, and
the Fed had to respond, right, and so COVID certainly
reset a lot of things. It reset not only the
economy or with all the reshoring, it changed the status
quo around globalization. It also changed, I guess a lot
of preconceived notions about the stock market. And there was
(17:31):
this idea Dave called the Fed put that has existed
for the past thirty years when we had a bond
bull market, which means interest rates were falling since the
early nineteen eighties, that anytime there was a problem in
the economy or in the stock market, the Federal Reserve
would come in and cut interest rates and save the day. Right,
(17:51):
and now the problem is, hey, they caused the worst
inflation in forty years. They basically have to sit on
the sidelines. Now they're not going to be able to
come to the rescue anymore. I think still a lot
of investors, and I travel around the country talking to
investors every day, a lot of investors had not been
able to, you know, essentially integrate this into their their
mindset that the Fed's not coming to rescue you. It's
(18:13):
just kind of Hey, that's why we're in the wild West.
That's why we have all this volatility happening. We got
to figure out our issues with the government budget, We
got to figure out inflation, we got to figure out
supply chains, and you know, we can't just print money
to solve our issues anymore.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
That's fascinating.
Speaker 1 (18:28):
Okay, So there's a market correction that you all been
predicting for a while, right, and because what tech? Those
seven tech companies they can't care continue carrying us.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
But is it the idea?
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Do you believe that the idea with Trump and the
administration is that if we put these tariffs out there
on the global economy, we give our producers of goods
and a much greater opportunity to get back in the game,
to get back.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
In the fight.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
And then also what he's he's I just read yesterday
that he's brought in seven trillion dollars of investment. I mean,
I think somebody in the Middle East brought has committed
a trillion dollars.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Now, that's all commitments. That's all like a lot of like, hey,
look at me on TV.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
I'm we're behind Trump because we either don't want to
get bombed or we want to work with them, you know.
And it's like, all right, it is is this the
push that you believe is feasible that this well take
place eventually? Or could it cost some more catastrophic outcomes?
Speaker 4 (19:34):
Yeah, So I'll touch you on the tariffs in a second,
but I'll just say, like, reshorting to the United States,
I think is happening regardless of if we have tariffs
or not. Okay, I think tarriffs obviously incentivized it to
happened faster. But the reality is, you know, COVID hits Okay,
it makes everybody question the status quo on globalization. It
was sort of a republican issue or like a maga
(19:55):
issue until COVID hit and then nobody could buy pa
you know, toilet paper and baby for formula, and now
everybody agrees, hey, this is a problem. It's very by
part is an issue. We passed the chipsacked the Inflation
Reduction Act to incentivize reshorting. Under Joe Biden. Okay, factory
construction is tripled in two years in the United States.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
So this is.
Speaker 4 (20:14):
Concretely happening in a very fast way. And so some
people I think still look at this is like, hey,
it's government policy or it's just like a response to COVID.
And what I really like try to emphasize to people
and why I've been talking about this since twenty sixteen
is just we went abroad and globalization. Part of it,
right is you know, world peace or the American Empire
(20:34):
or fighting the Soviets or whatever. But a huge part
of this stage.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
I love how you just I love that you just
brush over.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
We can touch on all that if you want, but
not in this one.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
Not I get you on in a week or two
and we'll we'll dig into that, right, But.
Speaker 4 (20:49):
Like, really like the huge thing that's and like here's
the thing, Like there's always rhetoric. There's always like a
you know, like a nice story we paint as a
veneer on top of like our economic interest a lot
of times. So I think the reality is the economic
interest behind globalization for the United States was an abundance
of cheap labor right all over the world. And the
(21:10):
reality is if you look at demographics globally, demographics are
peaking basically everywhere. Right China's population is going to fall
by forty percent through the end of the century. Wow,
South Korea is going to be like ninety percent of
the South Koreans are going to be gone by you know,
twenty one hundred or something.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
That's crazy.
Speaker 4 (21:28):
Thing in Eastern Europe, same thing in Vietnam, same thing
in all these places. And so what I would just
emphasize to people, and we'll talk about tariffs in a second,
is just the cheap labor is going away no matter what, okay,
And so if the supply goes down, the price goes up,
and so it doesn't make sense to make things in
China anymore. That's that's the real issue. And in a
(21:49):
lot of other places. And so the United States we
consume everything for the whole world, and We're looking at
this and saying, if we don't get the cheap labor
out of it, like, what's even the point of this deal.
We can just make it ourselves. So reshooring is going
to continue to happen no matter what, in my opinion,
because the cheap labor is going away. Now, how that's cool.
The tariffs, okay, are like the government policy around this
(22:11):
is an effort to basically get out front of this
trend and kind of control it from the front instead
of kind of getting pulled along from behind by like
the broader macroeconomic trying to peaking demographics. Okay, So tariffs,
what they do? You just tax stuff at the border
as it gets imported, and by doing that you make
it artificially more expensive. And so say, like you know,
(22:34):
the US Defense Department wants to put semiconductors in it's
like drones or hellfire missiles or whatever, and they're looking
at who's an option. Maybe Intel will sell you that
chip for fifty bucks, and maybe TSMC will sell it
to you for forty bucks if you tear off the
semiconductor at the border at twenty five percent. Now they're
the exact same price domestically for the Defense Department to buy.
(22:57):
They're probably going to go with the American maker Intel instead,
or TSMC could say, Hey, the Defense Department's a pretty
important client for us, maybe we should just build a
factory in the United States and that way you don't
have to worry about the tariffs anyway. And so the
reality is here, guy, is like, we have the huge
domestic market. We buy everything from the entire world basically,
(23:21):
and so we can throw our weight around a little
bit here and say, hey, we want more stuff made
in the United States. I don't think it's the end
of the world. It's interesting you mention all these like
investment commitments, Dave, because I was just on my Bloomberg
terminal this morning and there's a bunch of economists talking about, Hey,
this tariff war is going to cause like a global recession,
and I don't I wouldn't be surprised if it hurts China, right,
(23:42):
or it hurts like Malaysia or something. It probably will, frankly,
But the reality is, you know, they're saying, hey, companies
are going to pull back investment because of uncertainty in
the United States, and I would just really question that
assumption because the reality is again, factory construction is tripled
in two years in the United States. You have now
six trillion dollars or whatever of committed investment from different people.
(24:06):
It hasn't been spent. I got it. It's You're right,
a lot of it is pr but like it looks
to me like the tariffs are causing a huge wave
of investment by basically every observable metric. So I would
be very skeptical of claims that, hey, we're about to
go into recession because of tariffs in the United States.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
I love that. Thank you for saying that.
Speaker 4 (24:24):
Now.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
The one thing that obviously not obviously, but the thing
that kind of like the fact that we're we're we've
been at the precipice of a bear market for a while.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
It's like, okay, who's going to get hurt by that? Right?
Speaker 1 (24:40):
And the people that I think, for me, that I
worry most about are the people that are in all
those state pension funds, those federal pension funds. What do
you say to them with these market fluctuations, what do
you say to them in terms of, you know, whether
(25:00):
they're freaking out Because a lot of these people are
obviously on fixed income they're not sure. You know, these
investments are are the way with which they live. What
are you going to say to reassure these people that, hey,
this is a relatively short term thing in terms of
the over that I love. The one chart that you
(25:22):
guys always show is about, you know, how long recessions
actually last, the impact they have.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
What advice do you give to those people.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
That you know have their entire net worth in these
pension funds.
Speaker 4 (25:35):
Yeah, and we can touch on recession if you want
to in a second, because personally, I don't think we're
going to have a recession, but certainly the market has
had a correction here, Okay, I think we're down, like
on the S and P five hundred 're down twelve
or thirteen percent from the peak. Okay, And so guy, honestly,
I mean, if you just look at some of the
math on corrections in the stock market, this doesn't look
(25:57):
that scary, just to be honest, Okay, we get a
ten percent correction in the United States, like every eight months,
we get like a fifteen percent correction in the stock
market every I think sixteen months. We got a twenty
percent correction basically every three years. If you just look
at like the last one hundred years of the stock market,
right so, I don't look at what's happening right now
(26:18):
is really anything outside the ordinary. Again, I think we
came into the tear overvalued on the stock market just
based on profits and interest rates, and so I was
sort of expecting a correction.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
Now.
Speaker 4 (26:29):
Tariffs have added uncertainty and they've kind of been a
catalyst one hundred percent. But when I look at like
the fundamentals of the US economy, I don't see like
any of the five hundred wealthiest you know, companies in
the country going out of business because of tariffs, right so,
And like the earnings picture, I think the stock market's
earnings are going to go up this year still, uh so,
(26:52):
there might be some margin pressure from labor or tariffs
or whatever, But big picture here, you know, I think
this is a stock market, correct. I don't think this
is the end of the world. I think the problem,
Dave is we all have smartphones in our pockets and
the media ecosystem and by the way, we're on a podcast,
it's long form. This is an effort to combat like
(27:13):
the disease of short form information, Okay, but to get
eyeballs you basically present negative information because it's ten times
you know, as effective at getting eyeballs as positive information.
You make things as dramatic as possible. And so hey,
stock market correction, Trump Tariff's end of the world. Like,
I don't know, I personally think we're not going to
(27:35):
be talking about the stock market in like six months.
I just I think Donald Trump's back in office, a
correction's happened. This is not outside like empirically normal behavior
in the stock market at all.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Awesome.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Well, I mean that answers a lot of the other
questions that I was having. Is obviously your your beliefs.
It's not going to have a dramatic effect on the
US economy. But you did mention the effect on China
some other Southeast Asian countries, could disaffect European Union. Could
it affect the bricks countries? I mean, how is it
(28:09):
going to impact them?
Speaker 4 (28:12):
Yeah? So I guess first I'll start out by just saying, like,
let me contrast the United States is some of these
other places, quick, okay, because the reality is we have
a very self sufficient economy already in terms of like
overall economic activity back in like the eighteen hundreds, or
in World War One or whatever. We're an agricultural economy
and an industrial economy. We basically depend on exports for
(28:32):
a lot of our GDP, right, we make stuff and
shipping around the world. Today, Like seventy percent of the
US economy is services. It's me getting on a podcast
with you, somebody giving me accounting advice, me buying software,
you know, those types of getting a haircut. That's seventy
percent of consumer spending. So only thirty percent of consumer
(28:52):
spending is goods at all, and only a third of
those goods are actually imported goods. And so we're talking
about ten percent of consumer spending that's actually directly affected
by tariffs. And by the way, like I don't think
most people know thirty percent of our imports are from
Canada and Mexico, even though we talking about twenty five
percent tariffs on all of them. And there's been all
(29:12):
this debate around Canada Mexico, like the vast majority of
what they import to the United States comes in duty
free because of USMCA, we're not actually tariffing very much
from Canada Mexico right now, which I don't think is
renegotiated NAFTA we did it in Donald Trump's first from
the office.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
Got it. Got it?
Speaker 4 (29:30):
Okay. So you know, if you look at it, like
literally seven percent of like consumer spending is actually affected
by tariffs right now, So it's pretty small. The best estimates.
I like to look at the Tax Foundation. They're very
anti tax, anti tariff think tank. By the way, I'm
not cherry picking things. They say the tariffs that have
been instituted will have a negative point eight percent impact
(29:52):
on GDP. Wow, not even a one percent decline.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
That's crazy.
Speaker 4 (29:57):
COVID was minus ten percent, the oeight to nine financial
crisis was minus five percent to GDP. So we're talking
a fraction of those things. And again I think they're
modeling a worst case scenario that does not include a
huge booming investment because of the tariffs. Okay. So I'll
start out there and say the America, we're just not
really that dependent on foreign trade for the overall economy. Okay.
(30:19):
When you contrast that with like China for example, or
Germany for example, or say like Vietnam or Malaysia, those
economies or Japan, those economies are very export dependent. They
produce a lot and export it and then they have
a very high savings rate. They don't actually consume all
that they produce, right, Whereas we're the opposite. We have
(30:41):
a high consumption rate in a low savings right, and
we buy from the rest of the world. So if
we just start making more for ourselves.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
That's all those late night Amazon purchases, right.
Speaker 4 (30:51):
Yeah, which are about to get a lot more expensive.
By the way, Like you look at the total teub
on China is like sixty percent right.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
Now, which oh my god, insane.
Speaker 4 (30:58):
But you know, the big picture is, yeah, they need
to export to us because we're the ones that buy everything.
And so what is Germany going to do? What are
what's China going to do? What's Japan gonna do if
they lose their biggest export market. Basically, they got to
start making more stuff for their own people and people
actually have to go out and spend money there, and
that's you get a little bit more balanced economy. So
(31:21):
I think that's what China has to do here. They
just got to actually make things for their own own
people and boost their own people's like standard of living,
and that's been talked about for years and they just
haven't been able to do it.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
So what I mean, this sounds like actually, I mean,
obviously the way I kind of view the world is
through a geostrategic mindset, right, just from my background, this
actually sounds like it could be a very positive impact
on gaining a greater leverage against China as it relates
(31:53):
to all the little you know, the little chirping we
hear are out there about war in Taiwan and semiconductors.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
And all this stuff.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
I mean, this sounds like we can gain a pretty
significant amount of leverage against China, especially with the fact
that you know, their economy, if I'm not mistaken, is
not great anyways.
Speaker 4 (32:17):
Correct, Well, yeah, so China. You know, their economy grew
ten percent a year for decades, right because one, their
demographics were booming and there's a lot more people every year.
And two they just imported technology from the rest of
the world. Maybe that's like a polite way to say it, right,
They stole a lot of technology too, right, So the
combination of that makes GDP boom. You go from like
(32:38):
an ox Dron carriage to like a John Deere tractor
in your field. You have to invent that, you just
import it from the rest of the world, right, And
so the problem China has now is Okay, all of
a sudden, other demographics have peaked and started to decline
because of the one child policy and a bunch of
other stuff that goes into like the nitty gritty of demographics.
But on top of that, they're in a trade war
(32:59):
with like basically the whole world. Okay, so US tariffs,
I know this is like in the news right now, Okay,
but China's just been in a giant trade war with
Europe in the past year. Europe put one hundred percent
tariff on Chinese electric cars. Wowkay, So you know they're
losing export markets everywhere. Basically everyone's saying, hey, we don't
want to export like our high technology stuff to China
(33:21):
anymore because we don't trust them. And so China's getting
whacked not only on demographics, but they're getting whacked on
technology access too, And so yeah, there are economies in
huge trouble. In my opinion, people might have heard of
like the ever Grande real estate collapse. Basically, normal Chinese
people don't get access to the stock market. Okay, you
got like a bank account, or you can buy real estate.
(33:43):
That's how you invest, Okay, So everybody went out and
bought like these condos, or they'd like take out a
mortgage for like a building that wasn't even built yet.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
The ghost cities, right, yeah, the ghost cities.
Speaker 4 (33:54):
And now everybody over there is looking around and saying
there's going to be forty percent less people in like
sixty years. Who am I supposed to sell this condo to?
Speaker 1 (34:02):
Right?
Speaker 4 (34:02):
So what's happened is all the real estate values are crashing.
It's like two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine
one steroids over there. So China's a huge trouble. They've
got a lot of problems.
Speaker 1 (34:12):
Wow, that that's now, I think, you know, that's the
context that that that most people are are as you said,
you know, whether it's your you know how fast you're
screaming through X right now.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
To be able to stop.
Speaker 1 (34:26):
And and and give this some some context is significant.
And that's why I love listening to you as much
as I do. Dude, you just are you have that
breadth of knowledge. So all right, the last question for
this segment. You know, and obviously we're going to have
additional segments if for those who want to, you know,
follow us on Patreon and some other places. You know,
(34:47):
but for this segment right now, what I what I
really want to do is kind of end with you know,
taking the opposing side for you for a second. And
and and really say, all right, all right, Bryce, your
advice European Union leaders right now, you're advising the IMF,
you're advising the bricks nations, right what do.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
You tell them on.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
How to evaluate this or how to combat this or
what are you saying to those groups of people right now?
Speaker 4 (35:21):
Yeah, I'd say, hey, listen, the Americans have had unilaterally
low tariff barriers for a long time. They've really benefited
from globalization. We all have. And the reality is when
we look out there, a lot of the economic underpinnings
of globalization are starting to fall apart. Some of our
biggest export markets in the European Union are like Russia
(35:42):
and China, and we've become reliant on potentially some like
geopolitically unstable you know, sources of income. And so I
think we're basically at a point where, hey, it's like
America is telling you to choose. It's either you choose
China or you choose the West.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Wow.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
And so I don't envy Europe for this decision. I mean,
they're in a tough place. By the way, they're the
Middle Continent, right, they're between east and West, and so
they've always been. But I think we need to come
to some type of agreement with Europe. Maybe it's that
they take care of more of their own defense and
we make some deals on like you know, the auto
industry tariffs or other kind of non tariff barriers. But
(36:24):
I would advise Europe to probably make a deal with
the United States. I think the United States has a
lot of natural advantages. I think we have a lot
more values in common than Europe does. And given the
way like the real world's reshaping, there's like a rising
eastern block. Again, which side does Europe want to be on?
Do they want to be on the side of the
United States and the West or on the East. And
(36:45):
they'll probably kind of play both sides to some extent.
I don't again forgrudge them for that, given their geographical location.
But this is what this tariff announcement by Donald Trump is.
It's basically saying, hey, we have our core of North America, USMCA,
and now we're going after everybody else and saying make
a choice. It's the United States or it's China. And
(37:06):
you know, Peru, if you want to export all your
fruit from the Sacred Valley up to Texas in the
grocery stores, then you can't hire China to build all
your infrastructure. It's not going to work like that anymore.
You can't have your cake and eat it to pick
a side. So I think we're gonna have to pick
a side.
Speaker 1 (37:22):
Basically, this is like, this is the greatest news that
I think people could hear, right is is this is
finally giving us a little bit more leverage by our
using our economy, the economic engine of America, which.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
Is by far the greatest on the planet.
Speaker 1 (37:42):
And don't let any of these little squawk boxers over
here and over here detract you from that. The reality
is is we have the greatest economic machine that has
ever been created in human history. And this is part
of that plan to regain that whole thing. All right, Bryce, man,
I you know before I I let you go for this,
this spart right now, is I just want I gotta
(38:05):
have you give your advice. All right, what's the best
sub gun that's out there? And it could just describe
what makes you happy when you're on the range and
you're going big with a subgun.
Speaker 4 (38:20):
Man, the best sub gun out there right now? That's
such a good question. I mean, honestly, I've just am
a sucker for the classics.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
Man.
Speaker 4 (38:27):
I think I like the MP five K the best
of anything. I wish they would like remake it with
maybe a bigger magwell funnel and maybe a little bit
better ergonomics on the grip and stuff. But anybody that
needs like a bolt release on their gun, like everything
doesn't have to be an Air fifteen. That's kind of
how I feel about it. The you know, the aesthetics
(38:49):
of the MP five, the ergonomics of the MP five
pulling back the charging head of locking it in, charging
a new mag and doing the slap like, it's so enjoyable.
So I would vote the MP five K. Honestly, I
think it's still the best subgun there is.
Speaker 1 (39:02):
There's just there's a there's a different level of h
TAC tech. What the tac tiledness of the MP five right,
as well as the accuracy that's son of a bitch, man.
It's like my favorite gun I've ever shot as well too, man,
and you just can't beat it in the house for sure,
that's right, right man?
Speaker 2 (39:20):
Uh, where can people find you? Where they? Where?
Speaker 1 (39:24):
You know?
Speaker 2 (39:24):
Again, who do you work for? Where can people find you?
Speaker 1 (39:27):
And and just uh, you know what do you have
coming up in your life right now?
Speaker 4 (39:33):
Yeah? So if you want to find my work, I'm
an economist of a company called First Trust Portfolios. You
can search the first Trust Economics Blog. We post everything
we write there, which is basically any economic data that
comes out. We're writing updates on it. All that stuff
is available for free. Everything's one page, easy to read,
easy to share. So I think those a great resource.
(39:53):
You can just search my name in Google. I do
a lot of interviews like this. They're kind of all
over the internet. I've also got an exic as well.
It's Daddy Fat stats.
Speaker 1 (40:05):
Wich.
Speaker 4 (40:05):
If anybody's an outcast fan, it's a big boy, right,
Daddy fat Stacks. But because I look at data, it's
Daddy Fat Stats.
Speaker 2 (40:15):
Dude. I love you so much, it's not even funny.
I'm telling you what I.
Speaker 1 (40:20):
Oh my god, ladies and gentlemen, mister Bryce Gil, thank you, brother.
Speaker 5 (40:24):
I appreciate it. Thanks, welcome back.
Speaker 4 (40:40):
Now.
Speaker 1 (40:41):
If if you were like me and you just listen
to Bryce Gil you're blown away because the data that
he shared with us is undeniable. And what it proves
is that America still is and and my estimation will
always be what the benchmark economy world is well, at
(41:01):
least if if we can maintain our prowess as what
as not only the most financially sound with our markets
and our whatever, but because of the companies that keep
America going, because of those companies that set the standard
for production. Uh and then also because of the initiative
(41:22):
that that Trump and his cabinet are going to do
with these tariffs, which is to bring back the industrialized
might of America. And if we can do that, then
guess what. Then you and your wife, you and your friends,
You're going to have a well paying job that delivers
a powerful pension, that delivers you opportunity to have the
(41:44):
American dream, which is to you know, have a wife,
have children, or or have a job that pays you well,
that enables you to have a house and a community
that's that's supportive and really kind of to reshape what
the Mamerican myth uh at what we should call now
the American myth back into the actualization of the American
(42:07):
dream and that's possible, and it's possible if you get committed.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
So I just I'm blown away.
Speaker 1 (42:13):
Jordi, what do you think about Bryce Man? I mean,
if did he impact you?
Speaker 2 (42:18):
I mean you're a young man.
Speaker 1 (42:19):
Did he get you all fired up on how bad
ass America is?
Speaker 4 (42:22):
Yeah? Absolutely?
Speaker 2 (42:24):
Also, I just never.
Speaker 6 (42:25):
Heard some of the facts that he was talking about.
Like I thought it was interesting him saying that the
onshooring is there's a wave of onshooring in America that's happening,
you know, with the tariffs, without the tariffs, Like this
is just in the country's blood right now, and there's
a there's a big movement behind that, and it just
kind of shows how important that is.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Man.
Speaker 1 (42:47):
I learned a lot and I love that that that's
the positive outlook of of what happened from COVID. If
if you know, other than you know, millions of people
out there getting red pilled for or you know, the
reality is is that we've come to the realization that
we cannot count on the supply chain from China, and
(43:09):
what we are going to do is we're going to
count on our own supply chain. We're going to start
to build America, right, building a made in America is
going to be a real thing instead of assembled in America,
which drives me nuts, but it is what it is,
right all right. So you know, one of the cool
aspects that we really want to do at the end,
the final kind of segment or closing segment. And and
(43:31):
thanks to Jeordi being the musician that you are, buddy,
we're gonna call this the coda section.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
Now describe this a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (43:39):
What is a code of for these folks and for
all you don't know, Jordi is a musician at heart.
Speaker 2 (43:44):
He's a true artist, just like me. So, Jeordie, what's
a coda?
Speaker 6 (43:48):
Well, if I can remember back to my music school education,
the coda is the ending section of a musical piece,
and it's oftentimes a little bit different than anything else
you heard in that composition.
Speaker 4 (43:59):
And so there's the whole piece, it's.
Speaker 6 (44:00):
Going through its peaks and valleys, and then it's like
a little bonus at the end that they hit you
with right before you go. So that's what this section is.
I thought it's a good name. Bring back some multiple
music terms.
Speaker 1 (44:10):
You know, let's go led Zeppelin, all right, that's just
my gen X right there. And maybe I'll review led
Zeppelin in the future in one of the code sections
that would be apropo. But in this one, what we
want to do is we're going to call it the
Vintage hard Story, right, and what we want to we
want to highlight are the people who were those old
(44:31):
school people who worked in the steel mills, who built
the skyscrapers in New York and Chicago and all over
the place that really exemplified the industrial might of the
American worker.
Speaker 2 (44:45):
Right. Those are the people right with their.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Dirty hands and their bad backs and the covered and
soot from the coal mines.
Speaker 2 (44:53):
You know, those are the men of.
Speaker 1 (44:55):
This country that we owe a profound amount of a
debt and gratitude because we would not be here without them. Jordi,
pull up, pull up that one picture of the steel
mill there.
Speaker 2 (45:09):
Yeah, here you go and boom oh man.
Speaker 1 (45:12):
So you look at that and you look at those
dudes right there. Man, do you know how hot that
furnace was? Do you know how heavy those those steel
pokers were? Do you know do you realize that those
long shifts twelve hours in a steel mill and what
that does to your body, what it does to your focus.
How dangerous all that was. But you know what, those
(45:33):
men woke up. They didn't bitch, they didn't complain, they
didn't they weren't angry because why because they were making
a good living. They were able to support their families.
They were able to send their kids to college, the
first kids to ever go to college ever.
Speaker 2 (45:48):
And those jobs were real jobs.
Speaker 1 (45:50):
That made an impact that changed America for what it
is today. Well not totally what is, but what built America,
what it's become is a whole nother thing that will
get into it. Another code of session. All right, Well,
how about my other favorite? What, Jordy, what was the
other one we talked about?
Speaker 2 (46:05):
That other great one is the classic one right here?
The god is.
Speaker 6 (46:12):
That what your lunch break looks like?
Speaker 2 (46:15):
Not since military.
Speaker 1 (46:20):
For sure, but now, I mean you you look at
those guys and they're having lunch. What a couple maybe
five hundred feet up in the air, uh and probably
a stage photograph, but the representation of what it is.
And you got another one for me of guys actually
doing work up there.
Speaker 6 (46:36):
Here's them just hanging out up there doing some work.
Speaker 2 (46:39):
That's right. I don't I don't see many safety lines.
Speaker 1 (46:43):
Right, I don't see a hard hat, I don't see anything.
What I see is just sheer, courage and determination right
to build something out of nothing.
Speaker 2 (46:53):
And that's what we need. We need people.
Speaker 1 (46:55):
Especially you young folks out there. We need young men
out there. We need you to stand up and say,
you know what you know. I need to get my
hands dirty, I need to strengthen my back. I need
to build something. And if you don't want to go
work for anybody out there, a big construction conglomerate managed
by some private equity firm, that's whatever, then start your
(47:17):
own construction company. I mean, I've got a guy who
lives cross street from me, my neighbor, who you know,
I love, dearly man. This young man is, you know,
just thirty years old, and he works seven days a week,
and he works for a local builder and he's out
there managing fourteen fifteen building projects at his age. And
a guy works his butt off, and so that gives
(47:40):
me hope. But that's available out there to young people,
and you just have to feel the inspiration for taking
hold of your future with your bare hands. And that's
a powerful thing to do. So what I if I
can just inspire you man, to go back and sit
with those stories of of of those men and women
(48:01):
who'll build America in particularly those hard men that were
on those skyscrapers, that wear those steel mills, and in
those coal mines and out on those oil platforms. And
they're still out there, but their numbers are dwindling. And
so man, if you have any aspiration of being hard
and really getting in and making the America great again,
(48:23):
we need you to roger up and step into the fight,
if you will, to step on on that ledge with
your toes dangling, with your safety strap and your hard
hat on, and to help us build America.
Speaker 2 (48:34):
All right, that's my thing. Now.
Speaker 1 (48:36):
If you've enjoyed this show, you enjoyed what we're bringing
to you, please don't forget to like the show right,
make a comment, right, subscribe to the podcast, share it
with five of your friends or two of your friends.
Speaker 2 (48:51):
I don't want to be like one of those lame
like threads. Man.
Speaker 1 (48:54):
If you share this thing with ten of your friends,
you're gonna make a million dollars in thirty days. I
can't pro promise you that, but what I can promise
you that if they're red blooded Americans. They're going to
listen to this, they're gonna get fired up, and they're
gonna feel good about what our future looks like.
Speaker 2 (49:09):
And that's what we want to do here on this podcast.
Speaker 1 (49:13):
So like subscribe, we're available on the entire place, all
social media, all the different places you can consume content.
You can follow us at David Rutherford Show and that's
on YouTube, Instagram, Patreon, rumble tic Tech, all the podcast apps, Apple, Spotify,
(49:35):
all of them out there, and then if you want
to follow the show on x it's at d Rutherford Show.
At d Rutherford Show. It seems some some poor sap
out there stole the rest of it from me, but
that's all right. We'll get it one of these days hopefully.
And if you want to follow me on all social media, platfs.
(49:56):
My personal stuff is at Team frog Logic. It's David
Rutherford at Team frog Logic all right. Also too, this
is a big one.
Speaker 2 (50:05):
Listen.
Speaker 1 (50:06):
We're dependent and independent media. We are dependent on you
for much of our for all of our success, but sometimes,
and more importantly, we're also dependent upon you to reach
out to us and share with us something that's got
you fired up.
Speaker 2 (50:24):
If you've got a news story.
Speaker 1 (50:26):
You know somebody that's got a story they can't get
it out on regular news channels or on other larger platforms.
We're not afraid to take a look at it. Please,
if you want to send any new story, idea or
someone special in interview, a hero, you know, someone who's
vintage arge, your grandpa, your uncle, your aunt, something like that,
(50:49):
or just some you know corruption that you've discovered in
your school system or at at your job, or wherever
it might be. Please, I want you to email Jordi
at David Rutherford dot com. That's Jordi at David Rutherford
dot com. And if your story is epic and it's great,
we're gonna bring you on the show. We're gonna interview,
(51:09):
You're gonna let you tell your story to our audience
and to hope that we can help you and help
your endeavors. Also, if there's anything that you'd like me
to take a look at out there, do a deep
dive in. If you've got recommendations for things you'd like
to hear, please do the same. Go ahead and email Jordie.
That's j O. R. D Y at David Rutherford dot com.
(51:34):
All right, my man, what do you think Jordie is
at it for today?
Speaker 6 (51:38):
Good show, good show, I'm fired awesome, learned a lot,
Do it again next time.
Speaker 2 (51:45):
You got it all right once again.
Speaker 1 (51:49):
If you want to clear up the tsunami of information
out there, then you join me, because I'm gonna be
your flashbang of truth.
Speaker 2 (51:57):
This is the David Rutherford Show. Oo yah man
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