November 13, 2025 • 38 mins
12th Man Roundtable with HUGH MILLEN AND GREGG BELL (Tacoma News Tribune) - Sean McVay vs Mike MacDonald: How excited are the guys to watch this chess match on Sunday? :30- 12th Man Roundtable continues as we discuss how the Seahawks defense can stop Matthew Stafford and how Sam Darnold and the Hawks offense can continue their success? :45- We wrap up the roundtable with predictions and last thoughts.
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Speaker 1 (00:13):
All right, good morning to you. It is a Thursday,
it is eight o'clock. It is time to assemble. The
top analysts in town are inside of Greg Bell is here,
RQB one, Hugh Millan is here, Ashley Bucky Chuck with
you twelve man round table time. And it is the
biggest game yet of the season for the Seattle Seahawks.
We're getting ready to chop it up for an hour
(00:35):
here with Greg and Hugh. And I just want to
start by apologizing to Greg. I stepped on your toes
a little bit. I just broke some news. I know
this is your area, but I am announcing that the
Seahawks are going to sign Aaron Donald. I just decided
to do it. I don't have any information you all,
but I just decided.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
I'd do it.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Yeah, okay, okay, okay. I think we could use him.
I think he'd be a nice help. He's in good shapes. Yeah,
he's still in great shape. I think that he hates
the Rams now. I think that he'd like to play
for a defensive coach and not one of them stilly
offensive coaches for once. Uh So, anyway, I'm throwing it
out there. We're signing Aaron Donald. So anyway, may want
to do something, may want.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
To do some research. Yeah, I'm supposed to go follow
the lead on.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Yeah, I'll leave some bread crumbs for you. You follow him,
you do the rest. Okay, Uh, I've heard worse. All right,
Well let's get it started. Man, What a game? What
a matchup We've got on Sunday? And uh and Hugh.
I mean I could tell on Monday you couldn't wait
to start talking about these two coaches going head to head,
(01:44):
these minds getting ready to meet. And so here we
are on Thursday. There's no I don't even know if
we played a game this past week. All I'm focused
on is the RAMS. So McDonald versus McVeigh. How excited
are you to watch this chess match? Couldn't be more excited?
I just boy, I'm getting bad echo.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah, but I couldn't do much right and so you
just look at it's not just the coaching matchup. I
even go as so far as Lesnie the GM versus
John Schneider and some of the decisions they've made. But
but with you know, and and Sam Donold, you know
his his nemesis is one playoff game was was just
(02:23):
a few months back against these rams. So I think
that he's got a little bit of a monkey on
his back. I'm excited to watch him. But you know,
when you think about John Schneider and the decision they
made to let Pete Carroll walk, and you know, it
was thought that, hey, we got to get maybe Ben
Johnson to get a similar you know, an elite offensive mine.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
Maybe he would be the guy.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
But I think that once they sat down with Mike McDonald,
they were singularly focused on, No, the way we're going
to win this NFC West against these brilliant minds in
Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan is we're gonna get equal
brilliance on the opposite side of the ball. And all
of the data prior to that and all of the
data after that have have proven, in my opinion, that
(03:06):
that was, you know, the right decision, called a great decision,
love the path of the defense. And so you know
you've got some titans. I mean, this is Bobby Fisher
against Big Blue IBM. I mean, you know, in a
chess matchic you can't you can't get any bigger Greg
in terms of of of just kind of a divisional
(03:28):
matchup and the coaching battle on one on one side
of the ball versus the other. I bet man, it's
going to be great, great theater, Gregor.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
He was fired up for it as what we are
just to watch from a football perspective, just to see
these two go ahead. That I mean, the first year,
rookie year. Mike McDonald has a little learning curve, but
right now he seems to be humming, and we know
mcveigh's always humming.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Yeah, I'll be honest, there I'm doing.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
I've been doing this a couple of days now, twenty
plus years, and when I get on planes on some
weekends in November, it's.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Like, I won't mind this trip.
Speaker 4 (04:02):
This is I'm getting on a plane to LA on Saturday,
and I'm going to see something that should be very fascinating.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Here's right.
Speaker 4 (04:09):
The reason they hired Mike McDonald is to win this game.
They decided the most broken part of their team was
what had once gotten them to the Super Bowl twice
in a row, and that's their defense and Yp Carroll
was no longer their coach. Is that the defense had
faltered so poorly. Remember when they hired Mike McDonald, they
were thirtieth, thirty, first, thirty, second in the league for
(04:29):
a couple of years against the run. You know what
they are Now they're number one. And that's where it starts.
When you play the Rams. Everyone gets Sean McVay his
kudos and flowers for his past game, his quick pass
game and what he made Cooper Cup and Matthew Stafford
and all the crossers and horizontal games you play with defenses,
but it starts with the run and the threat to
(04:52):
run that allows all that stuff to work and give
the quarterback time to throw and in game after game
after game over the years against the the Rams have
it doesn't matter who the running backs have been.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Third, fourth string guys off the.
Speaker 4 (05:05):
Practice squad, Kyrine Williams, it doesn't matter. The same results
they established the run. They have thirds and shorts, second
in shorts, and the Seahawks are on their heels defensively
the entire time screen passes, Tyler Higbee tight ends thirteen
person All of that stems off the fact that they
had short guardage on second and third down to do
whatever they wanted. In mcveigh's playbook, McDonald this year so
(05:28):
far has limited offensive play callers to third and longs
because they've stopped the run on early downs and that
has allowed McDonald to dictate to two offenses on third down.
All of it that we've been talking about since September. Guys,
doesn't matter if they don't beat the Rams. If they
don't beat the Rams, they're not winning the division. They're
(05:48):
not having home plaif games, not going to super Bowl.
I know they've been great on the road, They're not
winning three games on the road in January to go
to super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
They just aren't.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
The history of the NFL and the history of the
Seahawks tells us that this is what they've been building toward.
And it's the times of beating the Steelers and the
Saints and the Cardinals twice.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
It's over. Now it's time to beat the teams that
you have to to win the division.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
In the first one of those Sunday, we'll see how
McDonald's and his defense does against McVeigh in that setting.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
I ye, I go to respond to their First of all,
I feel like Seattle needs to split with the Rams.
I don't feel like if they were to lose this
game Sunday that that prevents them from winning the division.
Obviously we're all hoping that they will. But you know,
Greg touched on the thirteen personnel that's one running back,
(06:37):
three tight ends. That is, the Rams are number one
in the use of that. To Greg's point about their
desire to run the ball. Now, Seattle they're cold run
play percent is Seattle at fifty two percent, they're number one.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
In the NFL.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
But the Rams are eight, you know, forty three percent
but still eighth and and so, uh yeah, you have
to get them into the longer yardage situations and those
thirteen personnel. Let's see Seattle, I think an important part
of this Seatle's number one in defensively in the use
of nickel eighty six percent of the time. But their
(07:20):
nickel has changed. The nickel a lot was uh with
Devin Witherspoon, you know, one hundred and eighty one pounder
was the the nickel. Now with Nick m and worry
two hundred and twenty pounds, they can play. They can
play in the paint hardball in the paint more with
the nickel that they have. So it's not just nickel's
(07:42):
how is your nickel constructed? And when Sean mccavay wants
to go to those heavy sets. Look, Seattle may ultimately
be compelled to say we we we got to play
bass and have three linebackers on the field, and they're
not they're they're they're nicked up at linebacker. But uh,
if they want to play the nickel as a I mean,
that's eighty six percent of the time they want to
play nickel, they can based on the talent they've acquired
(08:05):
here with the Eamon worry At popping Devin Witherspoon out
there to play corner.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
The last four weeks and when the Rams have beaten
everybody by fourteen or more points, just boat racing the
entire league, they've been in thirteen personnel with three tight
ends forty percent of the time, almost half the time.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Half the time. Now the teams they've been playing have
been going to base.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
Defense against that, including the San Francisco forty nine ers
last week.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Their answer to three tight ends has been debase.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
So far, Mike McDonald's answer to three tight ends has
been nickel and dime against thirteen.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
This season, McDonald's been in nickel or dime fifty eight
percent of the time.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
Which leads to huston an eighty six percent time against
any formation there in Nickel but there, McDonald is gonna
give McVeigh something on Sunday he hasn't been seeing, which
is extra defensive backs against his three tight ends. Nick
emun Worry is the reason. And you can go nickel
and dime against three tight ends. He's a two hundred
and twenty pounds and sixty four big enough to take
(09:05):
on Tyler Higbee and tight ends around the league.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
Yet he's fast enough and.
Speaker 4 (09:09):
Sure enough to make tackles in the open field like
Witherspoon and Oh by the way, they're gonna blitz him
off the edge a few times as well, too, will
playhim as a post safety, to play him as a
slot corner. They're gonna play him in different ways that
McVeigh hasn't seen yet. Emon Worry and Witherspoon coming back
healthy gives McVeigh a lot more to.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Have to digest.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
When he goes thirteen personnel, He's gonna see some sub
packages and nickel and dime. McDonald's even floating now there.
He's gonna do more dime this week. Because of how
Niami Pritchett played against Arizona, he wanted I led him
into a question on Monday that I know he wanted
out publicly, so McVeigh could hear, Yeah, we may do
more dime because I can't keep pritching off the field.
He may not do it as much as he tried
(09:51):
to bled on so McVeigh. But the point is Seattle's
defense could be far more varied than what mcveigh's been
attacking with his extra tight ends so far. That's another
game within a game.
Speaker 3 (10:00):
Well, as we're talking personnel, I think a point in
this is the is Davante Adams. Now, if Davante Adams
is your number two receiver, you know, like like that guy.
Now I get it, he's older, but he has a
potential to really impact a game in my opinion. Still,
And you know, to that point, the Rams for the
(10:23):
season offensively, they're eleven personnel, which is the number one
personnel for every team in the NFL other than Baltimore.
They're at sixty eight points called sixty nine percent. That's
sixth most they may have greg been going to thirteen,
you know, the more of the tight end sets and
leaving the one receiver Poka Nakou on the field because
(10:47):
they didn't have a healthy Adam.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
So I don't you know.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
You may know from a reporting standpoint, what's the latest
injury up to date with him, But I think some
of that those those inclin nations may have been because
of the personnel that they had healthy.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
What do we know about Adams greg And then I
will flip it on the Seahawks side. Is Ernest Jones
going to play? And how important is that?
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Well, let's start with the Seahawks first.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
Ernest Jones was on the field yesterday in a limited
fashion to practice. He of course tweeted out and then
I think the Seahawks made him take it down. Resurrecting
from the dead a rap star resurrect from the dead
on Tuesday, saying he's back, he's playing, But if he's
breathing on Sunday morning, he's playing. And I'm thinking I'm
going to predict it. He's going to be breathing on
Sunday morning, so he's going to be in the middle
(11:35):
of that defense because he's not missing this game.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Sure he missed that Aaron Donald's story, but you got
this one all right?
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Good?
Speaker 4 (11:42):
Yeah, I'm going to bypass the Aaron Donald's story for
my time being. LA connections haven't given me any reason
to go chase that one.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
Okay, yeah, okay.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
Tory Horton was on the field yesterday. Jake Bobo was
on the field yesterday. Both of them missed the game
last week with injuries.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
It looks like they're going to have Josh Job try.
Speaker 4 (12:03):
To go through the concussion protocol and see how he
fares at the end of the week. He was on
the practice field beginning to practice yesterday at the starting corner,
and he's important because he's going back in the starting line.
There's some people that saying, well, Riek wool And will
start over Josh Job. I don't see that happening. I
see Joe going right back to starting and then your
dying becomes Woolen, not Pritch it as much, unless he
(12:25):
wants to play seven defensive backs, which I don't see happening.
But it looks like with the exception, of course, with Jalensondell,
who's gonna miss the game with the knee injury, it
looks like they're getting healthier on that side of the ball.
Adams the oblique yesterday, did not practice down in LA
but again in November on a Wednesday, four days before
a game. I wouldn't read too much into a veteran
(12:45):
not practicing. Let's see if he practices Thursday or Friday.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Yep, yeah, you know, I just going back to your
question about the coaching because there's still I still got
more notes and the coaching matchup. If you go back
to Mike McDonald's last year at Baltimore when they played
the Rams, Baltimore won the game, but the Rams scored
thirty points, so in a way, you know, you could
(13:12):
say advantage McVeigh. Last year in in lumen Field, it
was flipped. You look at the score, you say, well,
the Rams beat the Seahawks twenty six to twenty. They
scored twenty six points, did they No. Gino Smith had
one hundred and five yard interception return, had another interception
in the red zone, and one of those touchdowns was
(13:36):
in overtime. So in regulation the Rams only scored thirteen
points against the Seahawk defense. And in that game the
Rams had the most they had They had seven to
three and outs against Seattle's defense. So that was right
around the time after the Buffalo game when Seattle was
kind of at its worst and they were starting to.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Hit their incline.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Just like in year one in twenty twenty two in Baltimore.
That chess. Now, we didn't see the chess match in
the last game of the year because that was a
JV game nobody was playing. But that mid season game,
you know, I think there's reason to say, wait a minute,
Mike McDonald, he got the best of Saw McVay. I
think that game has relevance.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Well, let's talk about that. I mean, okay, So if
a train's leaving the station Mike McDonald at fifty five
miles per hour heading north, and then trains leaving the
station in La Matthew Stafford and he's playing his best
football and he's going seventy five miles per hour heading east,
what happens when the two collide?
Speaker 2 (14:35):
I mean, can the.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Great Mike McDonald stump Matt Stafford as well as he's
playing right now?
Speaker 3 (14:40):
You well, I think that you look at what the
Rams do, well, they you know, the more you look
at this game, they just really match up very similarly.
You know, both teams offensively, you know they're gonna get
in shotgun. The Rams are number one in under center,
(15:03):
the Seahawks are number two. So in in play action percentage, uh,
the Rams are number one. The Seahawks are six. But
and uh, you know passer rating play action, Well, the
Seahawks and Sam Donald they're number two. Sam Donald as
one hundred and twenty eight passer rating eighty four. So
that I think that what's gonna happen is you're gonna
(15:27):
have some really exotic blitzes at very critical time that
Mike McDonald is gonna he's gonna employ. For example, he said,
wait a minute, Matthew Stafford, he's a veteran, he can
handle that. Well, how about when Leonard Williams had a
ninety seven yard pick six return against Aaron Rodgers right
(15:48):
on a on a dropping pop and drop type of
scheme with cover zero. Looked like on all our blitz
but the defensive tackles were blocked.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Uh, we're receiving.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
So I think that there is an opportunity to get
Matthew Stafford, particularly you know, an under center play action.
He's got his back turned. There may be some and
they like I miss where the receivers are close to
the ball. That gives a lot of blitzing opportunities for corners.
Devin Witherspoon, you line up, you say, hey, wait a minute,
(16:22):
if they get into this formation from this hash mark
you go, it's and and and Weatherspoon is a great
uh you know, ballhawks. So, so the Seahawks don't do
it often. They're the percentage of plays where they bring
five rushers, the Seahawks are twenty ninth in the league,
(16:44):
but the percentage of times that they bring a dB
in the rush there's seventh. So what wait, you say, what,
what the hell does that mean?
Speaker 2 (16:52):
How could that?
Speaker 3 (16:52):
How could those two facts be true? Because you're doing
simulated pressures, you're dropping defensive linemen off away from the pressure.
And here's the critical point, Chuck, to answer your question
on the percentage of plays where they bring five or more,
that's defined as the blitz in the NFL, when they
the percentage of time they produce a negative EPA Expected
(17:15):
points average. We're not going to go through that. Google
it a fear. It's a new matrix that has correlation
to winning. The percentage of times that the Seahawks bring
five or more rushers and they produce a negative EPA,
they're second in the NFL. So they don't do it often,
but they are very effective when they do it. And
and by the way, last week they were number one.
(17:35):
I don't know after that Cardinal game how they could
have fallen from one to two, but they are really,
really effective. So what does that speak to. That is
Mike mcdale. All those numbers point to Mike McDonald doesn't
blitz a lot. When he does blitz, it's creative and
it's a non risky situation more often to be his
zone behind it right, and it's disguising well enough that
(17:59):
they're creating have it. That's what those numbers point to.
And I think that they can get Matthew Stafford in
the same manner that they got Aaron Rodgers. It might
only take one or two big plays at the right
time in what we expect to be a close game.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Great look for number zero.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
DeMarcus Lawrence in coverage on Sunday, he talked about that yesterday.
He said that that's the one they called Mike McDonald's
play defensive playbook, a Harvard playbook that you need a
Harvard education to figure it out. But the main difference
is he said he had to know when to pass
us and when to cover, and in Dallas for eleven years,
he never had to worry about when to cover.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
My biggest concern about this. And please remember I said,
Matthew Stafford is a right handed quarterback. I can't believe
how many times, for as smart as Mike McDonald is,
how many times. And Marcus Lawrence has been as guilty
as anybody greg when he brought it up, is there
losing contained? Don't lose contained to a right handed quarterback?
(18:57):
He extended, Now you got to cover three times long
if you're going to if you're gonna lose contained, make
a quarterback go left. It's much harder for him under
under dress to make a play going to his left,
So so d law and others. That's that's that's one
of my concerns is you know you lost the forty
nine ers game with Brock Purdy. You know DeMarcus Lawrence
(19:19):
lost contained brock Perdy. He's out on the edge. Now
a two and a half second play becomes a five
and a half second play.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
Can't cover that long, so that fifty of his yards
that way.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Well, it is certainly fascinating McVeigh versus McDonald this Sunday,
that that battle inside the war, if you will uh
as they get ready to uh to do their thing. Yeah,
it make fascinating as a matter of fact. Coming up
on the other side, though, we will talk about Sam Donald.
All right, So how we stop Sam Donald? Maybe there
(19:52):
is a blueprint as you mapped it out, But what
about scoring points? Can we keep scoring at a thirty
point per game clip against one of the time five
defenses in the National Football League. We'll talk about Sam
Darnold Neck Sports Radio ninety three point three KJRFM. It's
(20:16):
a top man roundtable.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
We knew it every Thursday.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
But today certainly feels a little more special as we
get ready for Seahawks and Rams on Sunday. We've got
our Seahawks inside from the News Tribune. That is Greg Bell.
We've got our QB one here as well, Hugh Millen.
Actually we lean on Thursdays from eight to nine to
give us the best possible Seahawks analysis out there. Well,
(20:39):
we talked about defense in the first segment. Let's talk
about the offense here in this segment, and Greg on
this one, I'll go ahead and come to you. I'll
start with you on this one. I mean this Seahawks
offense averaging thirty point six points per game this year.
I don't know if anybody saw that coming. So, yeah,
good luck Rams scoring thirty one point points against our
(21:00):
defense on Sunday. If only it were that easy, because
the Rams play defense as well as they play offense,
so to get the offense, I mean, it's been humming
as of late. It won't be easy keeping it humming.
I think maybe we lost Greg.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
No, I'm here, Sorry, Oh he is there?
Speaker 4 (21:16):
Okay, sorry, go ahead repeat your question.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
I would just talking about the offense and how much
it's been humming as of late. But the Rams play
great defense too, so to try to keep it humming
at that clip is not going to be an easy task.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
Yeah, number one, number two teams and points it out
in the NFC on Sunday with the Rams being number one.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
The Seahawks have changed.
Speaker 4 (21:41):
Here in the last couple of weeks because they've been
playing from the front by twenty eight points in the
first minute of the second quarter last week. Of course,
they ran forty six times only two passes after halftime,
so that scus your run pass numbers. It also skews
their exposive plays in the pass game. The Seahawks, with
Donald Who's still number with Donald A. Smith' and Jigbert
largely are still number one in the league and exposed
(22:02):
to play fifteen yards or more in the pass game.
But the last four weeks they've been twenty second in
the league and exposed to pass players because they haven't
thrown the ball a lot. Season low twelve passes by
Darnold against Arizona because of the thirty five to nothing
lead halfway through the second quarters. None of that's going
to happen against Los Angeles. So you're going to see
(22:23):
a return to more of the deep strikes down the field.
And now they have something that the Rams defense hasn't
had to look at for most of the season in
Seattle's dressing room, and that's Rashid Shahed. So Shahed gives
them a threat for the safety down the middle of
the field.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
So now they just can't bracket. They could. But if
Kubiak sees the Brams.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
Doing what most teams have done against Smith and Jigwo
bracket coverage of a safety over the top or even
shading a safety to his side, you're going to see
more posts and deep routes on the backside, I think
with Shahed than you saw in his first game against Arizona.
They didn't take much of the cover off off of
Shhed at all because they didn't have to. So the
Rams are going to see things from Shaheed in the
(23:05):
past game Sunday they haven't seen yet on Seahawks film.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
Let's see how much Shaheed gets down.
Speaker 4 (23:10):
The field early in the game and how that might
change how the Rams defend the pass game.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
All Right, you Sam Darnold ready for this. I mean
we've seen every example for him so far this year.
I mean, he's playing as well as anybody out there. Well,
I think that this is a big game for him mentally.
I can't wait to see how he handles this because
so much has been said about his great season with
the Vikings last year, but then the last two games
(23:36):
right against the Lions and against the Rams. Against the Lions,
I studied that tape. I can't really defend it. He
didn't play terribly other than in the red zone, particularly
in the low red zone inside the ten yard line.
He missed easily four you could call it five touchdown passes.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
He just wasn't sharp. By contrast, for any fan who
just puts links those two together, I would just say
that's not how I saw it. When you watch the
Ram playoff game that the following week. That was just
a tsunami where the defensive coordinator, Chris Shula. I don't
(24:15):
understand why people aren't talking about him. I mean, you know,
his dad is David Shula, the head coach of the Bengals.
His uncle's Mike Shula, the head coach of Alabama's grandfathers
Don Shula, the legendary you know. I mean, this guy
was learning football through his umbilical court, right, and he
had everything came together for him in that game against
(24:38):
the Vikings and out coach O'Connell nine sacks Sam Donald
took in that game. But if you go, if you
take you remember watching the Super Bowl last year, Remember
how Pat Mahomes played terrible. He was under siege by
that Eagle defense. Pat Mahomes had seventeen pressures in the
Super Bowl. Sam Donald against the Rams in that playoff
(25:00):
game had twenty seven. Pat Mahomes in the Super Bowl
was pressured forty percent of the time. Sam Donald was
fifty four percent. So of all fourteen quarterbacks who played
in the playoffs last year, if you sort them by
the pressure percentage, Sam Donald's fifty four percent was number one.
He was the most pressured in the playoffs, you know,
(25:20):
and by the way, Jalen Hurts, his passer rating when
he was pressured was a twenty seven. Sam Donald still
had a better passer rating than Jared Goff did last year,
Jordan Love and Justin Herbertson in their playoff game. So
the point is it happens. It was a full team
failure by the Rams, and no matter who was the quarterback,
(25:43):
excuse me, by the vikings against the Rams, no matter
who is the quarterback, that was going to be a
rough day. So now can Sam Donald get over the
PTSD of that? Are there schematic things like having more
outlets that are available to him to avoid those sacks?
This is a really big game, in my opinion, for
(26:04):
his mental you know, I would just say his mental strength.
I'm dying to see how much grit this guy has
because he's got to be battling Greg some demons about
what everybody has been saying for months about this guy
resulting from that RAM game.
Speaker 4 (26:20):
Yeah, and we've asked him about it multiple times. He
was ready to talk about it in the spring, he
joked in the introductory press conference. When he signed here
in March. It took fifteen minutes into press conector for
someone asking him about the Rams playoff game. He said,
the biggest lesson he took out of it was he
hasked to get the ball rid of the ball sooner,
even if there aren't outlet receivers there, just get rid
of it for the sake of not taking a loss,
(26:42):
which means you have to throw up beyond the line
of scrimmage outside the parkt with those kind of things
don't get a grounding call, of course, but he blamed
a lot of it on himself for holding onto the ball,
trying to make plays down the field against the pass
rush that wasn't allowing him to do that. So the
Seahawks spent most of training camp on him getting the
ball out ultra quickly.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
You and I were standing next to each other on
a lot of those practices.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
It was like a second in a second and a half,
and with the spoon on the defensive second, they complaining
about how they couldn't even get to the quarterback and
affect him because he was Donald was getting the ball
out so quickly. He hasn't done that as much during
the season because he's done a lot of play action
passes and rollouts that have had him holding onto the
ball and allowing Smiths and Jingle to get further down
the field. That has been the net effect of Kubiak
(27:27):
running the ball fifty two percent of the time this season.
Everyone's talking about the rush game, and the numbers haven't
been there except in the Arizone game last week by
and large. But the effect there's two prongs to the
run game. One is, yeah, effective yard each and getting productivity.
Speaker 5 (27:42):
But the effective run game of fifty two percent runs
has on a defense is it allows play action and
rollouts and bootlegs to be more effective and give more
time for Donald to hold on to the ball.
Speaker 4 (27:53):
So while he's going to go into the Rams game,
when he walks in that field, he's going to remember, oh,
I got to get his ball up more quickly. He's
going to have an offensive coordinator who's going to run
the ball out early in the game, even if the
Rams stop it, so that he can Darnald can roll
out and hold on.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
The ball actually longer. It's the yin and yang of
the game.
Speaker 4 (28:11):
Yes, they'll have outlet receivers, Yes they'll have plans for
Hot Readson, for him getting the ball out quickly. But
I bet he holds onto the ball and rollouts and
bootlegs like he has most of the season with Smith
and Jake and Rashid down the field.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
And to that point, I think there's a couple factors
in this game that might lead Clint Kubiak to try
and really develop the running game. Number One, you've got
Sundell out and Olua Timmy in at center. So the
advantage in the past blocking between those two is to Sundell.
The advantage in the run game between those two is
(28:47):
Olua Timmy, so he can he can mack a little
bit inside that. So I think that's a factor. And
then furthermore, well, we mentioned that the Seahawks are number
one in nickel five dbs uh and and the the
Rams are twenty eighth in nickel in dime defense, the
(29:07):
Rams are number one, that's six dbs, so they, you know,
Clint Kubiak, you know, might be saying, Okay, you want
to play six dbs. There may be a couple of
critical third down conversions on you know, third and six,
third and seven, where you get you have a draw
or a trap or something that they they've used in
the past where they run on passing downs because they
(29:31):
feel like they can take advantage of that personnel group.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
And they are.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
There are gonna be times during the game, guys that
you maybe you guys will be throwing stuff at the
TV and they'll be Seahawk fans throwing stuff at the
TV and screaming why are they running the ball? And
it's going to be because of what you just set
against Dime and to set up later in the game,
they'll take a punt. If they'll run on third and
six against Dime, for instance, they'll take a punt so
they can set up something later off that run that
(29:58):
they failed on if they don't get it on thirday
and look for this, McDonald has a sheet of when
he goes for it, He's got all kinds of analytics,
time of game, score, position on the field, how the
defense is, all of that. He'll go on fourth downs
that you may not expect him to on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
Yeah, I'm not gonna be throwing anything. I'm not changing
anything I'm doing. If that run is being effective and
helping Sam and JSNB who they are, then why would
you try to adjust it and just drop back and
throw every single time? The way that you're putting points
on the board as of late. So, man, what a
chess match. We got more from Greg and Hugh. One
more segment and our twelfth Man round Table. We'll get
(30:36):
Greg's keys and Bucky's prediction and then Hugh's final thoughts
on Sports Radio ninety three point three KJRFM. All right,
the final segment of our twelfth Man Roundtable. And it's
(30:56):
a little special, a little larger on the marquee today
we're getting ready for Shawk's rams you mail and Greg
bell with us for an entire hour. The analysis just
you know, it just sounded purer today, didn't it sound
a little extra special, Like there's something sprinkled on top
of it, little magic dust the yeah, like there for
this game, like this will do it. Yeah, you gotta
get up for you got to bring your top game,
(31:18):
a game analysis to an a game.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (31:21):
And so final segment here, let's let's finish it off. Greg,
go ahead and get us started. What kind of game
are you expecting on Sunday and what kind of result?
I'm really curious to see where you go with this.
Speaker 4 (31:33):
Well, I think it's gonna be low scoring because I
think both defenses are going to present things that they
have offenses have not seen yet. Uh, the Rams are
rolling offensively. This is going to take quite an effort
if McDonald and his defense can do what it's done
recently to offenses against mcveigh's.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
This has been the curiosity in me since the spring.
Speaker 4 (31:55):
It didn't matter what they've done against it. Ultimately it
matters and wins and losses. But to truly know what
this team is, it didn't matter what they've done against
the Saints and the Steelers and the Cardinals and the
book Jaguars and the Texans. They have not beaten an
NFC top seventeen yet. They have not beaten a quarterback
that's in the top half of quarterback rating in the league.
(32:17):
Baker Mayfield's in the middle of that by some metrics,
and he lit him up for three hundred.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
Eighty yards at Lumenfield.
Speaker 4 (32:24):
Now they're getting an MVP candidate on his home field
with the maestro of the offense in offensive coaching in
the league and Sean McVay. Can the Seahawks impose Mike
McDonald imposed his defensive will on them.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
I think he will at times, but.
Speaker 4 (32:41):
I think ultimately Matthew Stafford right now, on the way
he's playing, is going to win the game. I'm talking
like sixteen fourteen, seventeen sixteen, narrow in the teams. It's
going to take the Seahawks getting a turnover late to
change that two three point b gap to their favor.
I'm gonna call LA winning seventeen sixteen.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
Wow. Wow.
Speaker 1 (33:05):
I think low scoring as well. But that's really low scoring.
All right, Bucky, what kind of game are you looking at?
Speaker 6 (33:10):
That's kind of where I was at too, was I
was thinking low scoring. I do think the defenses are
going to be the prominent thing. I think in these
type of games, everybody understands the situation at hand, and
so they play their cards a little bit more tight.
They're a little bit less willy nilly with throwing balls
(33:30):
up and whatnot. I think it's gonna be low scoring.
I think that it could come down to who has
the ball last, and I'm going I think if the
Rams have it, Stafford does enough to drive down getting
field goal range last second field goal, they win.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
Nineteen seventeen.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
Oh boy, there are two predictions, both Rams, all right.
Hugh Millan doesn't play predictions. He doesn't make predictions, but
what he does do is close out an hour with
some brilliant stuff.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
If that happens, it'll be a first. But listen, I
think it's worth mansie. I don't bring this up often,
but special teams expected points added. I've run the correlation
numbers on offense and defense. I know that it's a
new stat. It is a correlating it's a good stat
couldn't really give you a very detailed analysis of how
(34:18):
that applies to special teams. I just know that the
Seattle Seahawks are number one in the NFL with four
point oh four expected points averaging the special teams. The
Rams at minus three point six to two per special
teams play is thirty second. Let me repeat that again,
Seattle for best Rams worst at some point in a
(34:41):
sixty minute game that has got to play out either
obviously on some point return or maybe more discrete where
just you know, each time you just gain a little
bit more feel position and that can impact the points.
Here's why I just think this matchup is so fascinating. Offense,
neither team run the ball enough to really you know,
(35:04):
you know, talk a lot.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
About but the quarterbacks.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
You got passer rating the Seahawks their quarterback is third,
the Rams is fourth. You want the e p A uh.
Sam Donald is second, Matthew Stafford is fourth. But you
know that those speak to efficiency. No, no, no, no.
They pushed the ball down the field. Air yards per
attempt Sam Donald number one in the NFL, Matthew Stafford
(35:28):
number two. Percentage of plays where you produce twenty or
more yards in the passing game, Seattle seak Sam Donald
number one, mat Matthew Stafford number two. But and then
the defense. We've talked about some of the the the UH,
the coverage aspects. Let's just talk about the pressure here.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
Here.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
The Rams hits on quarterback their third in the league,
Seattle's fourth UH yards after catch after reception. Rams are
the best. They have the lowes. When you throw the
ball against the Rams and you get a completion, they
tackle you right on the spot. They're number one. They
have the fewest amount. But let's close with Seattle Seattle.
(36:10):
As I mentioned hits before, hurries are slightly different. In pressures,
Seattle a big margin difference difference in hurry. Seattle is
number one in the NFL on hurrying the opposing quarterback
at over eighteen per game and the Rams are at thirteen.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
That that's five. That makes a difference.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
And finally, ESPN has a pressure stat they've been doing
for a number of decades through this stage.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
In the season.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
The Seahawks have one hundred and forty six pressures in
that metrics. It's number one all time, so since they've
been doing and so at any event, I just think
it's just such a big that they mirror each other
so much.
Speaker 2 (36:59):
I disagree with a little bit, Greg.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
I mean, if you lose this game, I think sew
can still win the NFC West and and you know,
maybe they're not the number one so.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Yeah, no, I know.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
But but but we're at the point now where these
teams are good enough that you can start saying, hey,
we are we are trying to grab number one seat,
and uh you know, obviously Sunday's game is gonna be
a big part in determining whether that's a realistic goal.
Speaker 4 (37:28):
Really, this is the measuring stick though, This is why
McDonald's tired and to beat.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
Mcmick agreed, all right, Uh, well that's gonna do it
for us here today. I really think this comes down
to Matt Stafford with the ball, trying to win it
and Seahawk defensive tackle Aaron Donald Saxon.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
That's what I think.
Speaker 4 (37:49):
Some some Joe is turning on the radio right now, going, hey.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
All right, gentlemen, awesome stuff. Thank you. We'll talk to
you both tomorrow. Greg Bell, our Seahawks insider, we'll talk
to him tomorrow at seven o five, and Hugh Millen
will be with us x's and o's for more analysis
of this game at nine o'clock. Coming up next, though,
Alex Avila is going to join us from MLB Network.
He's gonna weigh in on the cow Raley versus Aaron
(38:19):
Judge MVP debate, and then we will discuss it one
final time before the show airs tonight. Sports Radio ninety
three point three KJRFM
All right, good morning to you. It is a Thursday,
it is eight o'clock. It is time to assemble. The
top analysts in town are inside of Greg Bell is here,
RQB one, Hugh Millan is here, Ashley Bucky Chuck with
you twelve man round table time. And it is the
biggest game yet of the season for the Seattle Seahawks.
We're getting ready to chop it up for an hour
(00:35):
here with Greg and Hugh. And I just want to
start by apologizing to Greg. I stepped on your toes
a little bit. I just broke some news. I know
this is your area, but I am announcing that the
Seahawks are going to sign Aaron Donald. I just decided
to do it. I don't have any information you all,
but I just decided.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
I'd do it.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Yeah, okay, okay, okay. I think we could use him.
I think he'd be a nice help. He's in good shapes. Yeah,
he's still in great shape. I think that he hates
the Rams now. I think that he'd like to play
for a defensive coach and not one of them stilly
offensive coaches for once. Uh So, anyway, I'm throwing it
out there. We're signing Aaron Donald. So anyway, may want
to do something, may want.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
To do some research. Yeah, I'm supposed to go follow
the lead on.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Yeah, I'll leave some bread crumbs for you. You follow him,
you do the rest. Okay, Uh, I've heard worse. All right,
Well let's get it started. Man, What a game? What
a matchup We've got on Sunday? And uh and Hugh.
I mean I could tell on Monday you couldn't wait
to start talking about these two coaches going head to head,
(01:44):
these minds getting ready to meet. And so here we
are on Thursday. There's no I don't even know if
we played a game this past week. All I'm focused
on is the RAMS. So McDonald versus McVeigh. How excited
are you to watch this chess match? Couldn't be more excited?
I just boy, I'm getting bad echo.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah, but I couldn't do much right and so you
just look at it's not just the coaching matchup. I
even go as so far as Lesnie the GM versus
John Schneider and some of the decisions they've made. But
but with you know, and and Sam Donold, you know
his his nemesis is one playoff game was was just
(02:23):
a few months back against these rams. So I think
that he's got a little bit of a monkey on
his back. I'm excited to watch him. But you know,
when you think about John Schneider and the decision they
made to let Pete Carroll walk, and you know, it
was thought that, hey, we got to get maybe Ben
Johnson to get a similar you know, an elite offensive mine.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
Maybe he would be the guy.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
But I think that once they sat down with Mike McDonald,
they were singularly focused on, No, the way we're going
to win this NFC West against these brilliant minds in
Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan is we're gonna get equal
brilliance on the opposite side of the ball. And all
of the data prior to that and all of the
data after that have have proven, in my opinion, that
(03:06):
that was, you know, the right decision, called a great decision,
love the path of the defense. And so you know
you've got some titans. I mean, this is Bobby Fisher
against Big Blue IBM. I mean, you know, in a
chess matchic you can't you can't get any bigger Greg
in terms of of of just kind of a divisional
(03:28):
matchup and the coaching battle on one on one side
of the ball versus the other. I bet man, it's
going to be great, great theater, Gregor.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
He was fired up for it as what we are
just to watch from a football perspective, just to see
these two go ahead. That I mean, the first year,
rookie year. Mike McDonald has a little learning curve, but
right now he seems to be humming, and we know
mcveigh's always humming.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Yeah, I'll be honest, there I'm doing.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
I've been doing this a couple of days now, twenty
plus years, and when I get on planes on some
weekends in November, it's.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Like, I won't mind this trip.
Speaker 4 (04:02):
This is I'm getting on a plane to LA on Saturday,
and I'm going to see something that should be very fascinating.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Here's right.
Speaker 4 (04:09):
The reason they hired Mike McDonald is to win this game.
They decided the most broken part of their team was
what had once gotten them to the Super Bowl twice
in a row, and that's their defense and Yp Carroll
was no longer their coach. Is that the defense had
faltered so poorly. Remember when they hired Mike McDonald, they
were thirtieth, thirty, first, thirty, second in the league for
(04:29):
a couple of years against the run. You know what
they are Now they're number one. And that's where it starts.
When you play the Rams. Everyone gets Sean McVay his
kudos and flowers for his past game, his quick pass
game and what he made Cooper Cup and Matthew Stafford
and all the crossers and horizontal games you play with defenses,
but it starts with the run and the threat to
(04:52):
run that allows all that stuff to work and give
the quarterback time to throw and in game after game
after game over the years against the the Rams have
it doesn't matter who the running backs have been.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Third, fourth string guys off the.
Speaker 4 (05:05):
Practice squad, Kyrine Williams, it doesn't matter. The same results
they established the run. They have thirds and shorts, second
in shorts, and the Seahawks are on their heels defensively
the entire time screen passes, Tyler Higbee tight ends thirteen
person All of that stems off the fact that they
had short guardage on second and third down to do
whatever they wanted. In mcveigh's playbook, McDonald this year so
(05:28):
far has limited offensive play callers to third and longs
because they've stopped the run on early downs and that
has allowed McDonald to dictate to two offenses on third down.
All of it that we've been talking about since September. Guys,
doesn't matter if they don't beat the Rams. If they
don't beat the Rams, they're not winning the division. They're
(05:48):
not having home plaif games, not going to super Bowl.
I know they've been great on the road, They're not
winning three games on the road in January to go
to super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
They just aren't.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
The history of the NFL and the history of the
Seahawks tells us that this is what they've been building toward.
And it's the times of beating the Steelers and the
Saints and the Cardinals twice.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
It's over. Now it's time to beat the teams that
you have to to win the division.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
In the first one of those Sunday, we'll see how
McDonald's and his defense does against McVeigh in that setting.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
I ye, I go to respond to their First of all,
I feel like Seattle needs to split with the Rams.
I don't feel like if they were to lose this
game Sunday that that prevents them from winning the division.
Obviously we're all hoping that they will. But you know,
Greg touched on the thirteen personnel that's one running back,
(06:37):
three tight ends. That is, the Rams are number one
in the use of that. To Greg's point about their
desire to run the ball. Now, Seattle they're cold run
play percent is Seattle at fifty two percent, they're number one.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
In the NFL.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
But the Rams are eight, you know, forty three percent
but still eighth and and so, uh yeah, you have
to get them into the longer yardage situations and those
thirteen personnel. Let's see Seattle, I think an important part
of this Seatle's number one in defensively in the use
of nickel eighty six percent of the time. But their
(07:20):
nickel has changed. The nickel a lot was uh with
Devin Witherspoon, you know, one hundred and eighty one pounder
was the the nickel. Now with Nick m and worry
two hundred and twenty pounds, they can play. They can
play in the paint hardball in the paint more with
the nickel that they have. So it's not just nickel's
(07:42):
how is your nickel constructed? And when Sean mccavay wants
to go to those heavy sets. Look, Seattle may ultimately
be compelled to say we we we got to play
bass and have three linebackers on the field, and they're
not they're they're they're nicked up at linebacker. But uh,
if they want to play the nickel as a I mean,
that's eighty six percent of the time they want to
play nickel, they can based on the talent they've acquired
(08:05):
here with the Eamon worry At popping Devin Witherspoon out
there to play corner.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
The last four weeks and when the Rams have beaten
everybody by fourteen or more points, just boat racing the
entire league, they've been in thirteen personnel with three tight
ends forty percent of the time, almost half the time.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Half the time. Now the teams they've been playing have
been going to base.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
Defense against that, including the San Francisco forty nine ers
last week.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Their answer to three tight ends has been debase.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
So far, Mike McDonald's answer to three tight ends has
been nickel and dime against thirteen.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
This season, McDonald's been in nickel or dime fifty eight
percent of the time.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
Which leads to huston an eighty six percent time against
any formation there in Nickel but there, McDonald is gonna
give McVeigh something on Sunday he hasn't been seeing, which
is extra defensive backs against his three tight ends. Nick
emun Worry is the reason. And you can go nickel
and dime against three tight ends. He's a two hundred
and twenty pounds and sixty four big enough to take
(09:05):
on Tyler Higbee and tight ends around the league.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
Yet he's fast enough and.
Speaker 4 (09:09):
Sure enough to make tackles in the open field like
Witherspoon and Oh by the way, they're gonna blitz him
off the edge a few times as well, too, will
playhim as a post safety, to play him as a
slot corner. They're gonna play him in different ways that
McVeigh hasn't seen yet. Emon Worry and Witherspoon coming back
healthy gives McVeigh a lot more to.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Have to digest.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
When he goes thirteen personnel, He's gonna see some sub
packages and nickel and dime. McDonald's even floating now there.
He's gonna do more dime this week. Because of how
Niami Pritchett played against Arizona, he wanted I led him
into a question on Monday that I know he wanted
out publicly, so McVeigh could hear, Yeah, we may do
more dime because I can't keep pritching off the field.
He may not do it as much as he tried
(09:51):
to bled on so McVeigh. But the point is Seattle's
defense could be far more varied than what mcveigh's been
attacking with his extra tight ends so far. That's another
game within a game.
Speaker 3 (10:00):
Well, as we're talking personnel, I think a point in
this is the is Davante Adams. Now, if Davante Adams
is your number two receiver, you know, like like that guy.
Now I get it, he's older, but he has a
potential to really impact a game in my opinion. Still,
And you know, to that point, the Rams for the
(10:23):
season offensively, they're eleven personnel, which is the number one
personnel for every team in the NFL other than Baltimore.
They're at sixty eight points called sixty nine percent. That's
sixth most they may have greg been going to thirteen,
you know, the more of the tight end sets and
leaving the one receiver Poka Nakou on the field because
(10:47):
they didn't have a healthy Adam.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
So I don't you know.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
You may know from a reporting standpoint, what's the latest
injury up to date with him, But I think some
of that those those inclin nations may have been because
of the personnel that they had healthy.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
What do we know about Adams greg And then I
will flip it on the Seahawks side. Is Ernest Jones
going to play? And how important is that?
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Well, let's start with the Seahawks first.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
Ernest Jones was on the field yesterday in a limited
fashion to practice. He of course tweeted out and then
I think the Seahawks made him take it down. Resurrecting
from the dead a rap star resurrect from the dead
on Tuesday, saying he's back, he's playing, But if he's
breathing on Sunday morning, he's playing. And I'm thinking I'm
going to predict it. He's going to be breathing on
Sunday morning, so he's going to be in the middle
(11:35):
of that defense because he's not missing this game.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Sure he missed that Aaron Donald's story, but you got
this one all right?
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Good?
Speaker 4 (11:42):
Yeah, I'm going to bypass the Aaron Donald's story for
my time being. LA connections haven't given me any reason
to go chase that one.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
Okay, yeah, okay.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
Tory Horton was on the field yesterday. Jake Bobo was
on the field yesterday. Both of them missed the game
last week with injuries.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
It looks like they're going to have Josh Job try.
Speaker 4 (12:03):
To go through the concussion protocol and see how he
fares at the end of the week. He was on
the practice field beginning to practice yesterday at the starting corner,
and he's important because he's going back in the starting line.
There's some people that saying, well, Riek wool And will
start over Josh Job. I don't see that happening. I
see Joe going right back to starting and then your
dying becomes Woolen, not Pritch it as much, unless he
(12:25):
wants to play seven defensive backs, which I don't see happening.
But it looks like with the exception, of course, with Jalensondell,
who's gonna miss the game with the knee injury, it
looks like they're getting healthier on that side of the ball.
Adams the oblique yesterday, did not practice down in LA
but again in November on a Wednesday, four days before
a game. I wouldn't read too much into a veteran
(12:45):
not practicing. Let's see if he practices Thursday or Friday.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Yep, yeah, you know, I just going back to your
question about the coaching because there's still I still got
more notes and the coaching matchup. If you go back
to Mike McDonald's last year at Baltimore when they played
the Rams, Baltimore won the game, but the Rams scored
thirty points, so in a way, you know, you could
(13:12):
say advantage McVeigh. Last year in in lumen Field, it
was flipped. You look at the score, you say, well,
the Rams beat the Seahawks twenty six to twenty. They
scored twenty six points, did they No. Gino Smith had
one hundred and five yard interception return, had another interception
in the red zone, and one of those touchdowns was
(13:36):
in overtime. So in regulation the Rams only scored thirteen
points against the Seahawk defense. And in that game the
Rams had the most they had They had seven to
three and outs against Seattle's defense. So that was right
around the time after the Buffalo game when Seattle was
kind of at its worst and they were starting to.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Hit their incline.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Just like in year one in twenty twenty two in Baltimore.
That chess. Now, we didn't see the chess match in
the last game of the year because that was a
JV game nobody was playing. But that mid season game,
you know, I think there's reason to say, wait a minute,
Mike McDonald, he got the best of Saw McVay. I
think that game has relevance.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Well, let's talk about that. I mean, okay, So if
a train's leaving the station Mike McDonald at fifty five
miles per hour heading north, and then trains leaving the
station in La Matthew Stafford and he's playing his best
football and he's going seventy five miles per hour heading east,
what happens when the two collide?
Speaker 2 (14:35):
I mean, can the.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Great Mike McDonald stump Matt Stafford as well as he's
playing right now?
Speaker 3 (14:40):
You well, I think that you look at what the
Rams do, well, they you know, the more you look
at this game, they just really match up very similarly.
You know, both teams offensively, you know they're gonna get
in shotgun. The Rams are number one in under center,
(15:03):
the Seahawks are number two. So in in play action percentage, uh,
the Rams are number one. The Seahawks are six. But
and uh, you know passer rating play action, Well, the
Seahawks and Sam Donald they're number two. Sam Donald as
one hundred and twenty eight passer rating eighty four. So
that I think that what's gonna happen is you're gonna
(15:27):
have some really exotic blitzes at very critical time that
Mike McDonald is gonna he's gonna employ. For example, he said,
wait a minute, Matthew Stafford, he's a veteran, he can
handle that. Well, how about when Leonard Williams had a
ninety seven yard pick six return against Aaron Rodgers right
(15:48):
on a on a dropping pop and drop type of
scheme with cover zero. Looked like on all our blitz
but the defensive tackles were blocked.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Uh, we're receiving.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
So I think that there is an opportunity to get
Matthew Stafford, particularly you know, an under center play action.
He's got his back turned. There may be some and
they like I miss where the receivers are close to
the ball. That gives a lot of blitzing opportunities for corners.
Devin Witherspoon, you line up, you say, hey, wait a minute,
(16:22):
if they get into this formation from this hash mark
you go, it's and and and Weatherspoon is a great
uh you know, ballhawks. So, so the Seahawks don't do
it often. They're the percentage of plays where they bring
five rushers, the Seahawks are twenty ninth in the league,
(16:44):
but the percentage of times that they bring a dB
in the rush there's seventh. So what wait, you say, what,
what the hell does that mean?
Speaker 2 (16:52):
How could that?
Speaker 3 (16:52):
How could those two facts be true? Because you're doing
simulated pressures, you're dropping defensive linemen off away from the pressure.
And here's the critical point, Chuck, to answer your question
on the percentage of plays where they bring five or more,
that's defined as the blitz in the NFL, when they
the percentage of time they produce a negative EPA Expected
(17:15):
points average. We're not going to go through that. Google
it a fear. It's a new matrix that has correlation
to winning. The percentage of times that the Seahawks bring
five or more rushers and they produce a negative EPA,
they're second in the NFL. So they don't do it often,
but they are very effective when they do it. And
and by the way, last week they were number one.
(17:35):
I don't know after that Cardinal game how they could
have fallen from one to two, but they are really,
really effective. So what does that speak to. That is
Mike mcdale. All those numbers point to Mike McDonald doesn't
blitz a lot. When he does blitz, it's creative and
it's a non risky situation more often to be his
zone behind it right, and it's disguising well enough that
(17:59):
they're creating have it. That's what those numbers point to.
And I think that they can get Matthew Stafford in
the same manner that they got Aaron Rodgers. It might
only take one or two big plays at the right
time in what we expect to be a close game.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Great look for number zero.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
DeMarcus Lawrence in coverage on Sunday, he talked about that yesterday.
He said that that's the one they called Mike McDonald's
play defensive playbook, a Harvard playbook that you need a
Harvard education to figure it out. But the main difference
is he said he had to know when to pass
us and when to cover, and in Dallas for eleven years,
he never had to worry about when to cover.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
My biggest concern about this. And please remember I said,
Matthew Stafford is a right handed quarterback. I can't believe
how many times, for as smart as Mike McDonald is,
how many times. And Marcus Lawrence has been as guilty
as anybody greg when he brought it up, is there
losing contained? Don't lose contained to a right handed quarterback?
(18:57):
He extended, Now you got to cover three times long
if you're going to if you're gonna lose contained, make
a quarterback go left. It's much harder for him under
under dress to make a play going to his left,
So so d law and others. That's that's that's one
of my concerns is you know you lost the forty
nine ers game with Brock Purdy. You know DeMarcus Lawrence
(19:19):
lost contained brock Perdy. He's out on the edge. Now
a two and a half second play becomes a five
and a half second play.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
Can't cover that long, so that fifty of his yards
that way.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Well, it is certainly fascinating McVeigh versus McDonald this Sunday,
that that battle inside the war, if you will uh
as they get ready to uh to do their thing. Yeah,
it make fascinating as a matter of fact. Coming up
on the other side, though, we will talk about Sam Donald.
All right, So how we stop Sam Donald? Maybe there
(19:52):
is a blueprint as you mapped it out, But what
about scoring points? Can we keep scoring at a thirty
point per game clip against one of the time five
defenses in the National Football League. We'll talk about Sam
Darnold Neck Sports Radio ninety three point three KJRFM. It's
(20:16):
a top man roundtable.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
We knew it every Thursday.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
But today certainly feels a little more special as we
get ready for Seahawks and Rams on Sunday. We've got
our Seahawks inside from the News Tribune. That is Greg Bell.
We've got our QB one here as well, Hugh Millen.
Actually we lean on Thursdays from eight to nine to
give us the best possible Seahawks analysis out there. Well,
(20:39):
we talked about defense in the first segment. Let's talk
about the offense here in this segment, and Greg on
this one, I'll go ahead and come to you. I'll
start with you on this one. I mean this Seahawks
offense averaging thirty point six points per game this year.
I don't know if anybody saw that coming. So, yeah,
good luck Rams scoring thirty one point points against our
(21:00):
defense on Sunday. If only it were that easy, because
the Rams play defense as well as they play offense,
so to get the offense, I mean, it's been humming
as of late. It won't be easy keeping it humming.
I think maybe we lost Greg.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
No, I'm here, Sorry, Oh he is there?
Speaker 4 (21:16):
Okay, sorry, go ahead repeat your question.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
I would just talking about the offense and how much
it's been humming as of late. But the Rams play
great defense too, so to try to keep it humming
at that clip is not going to be an easy task.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
Yeah, number one, number two teams and points it out
in the NFC on Sunday with the Rams being number one.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
The Seahawks have changed.
Speaker 4 (21:41):
Here in the last couple of weeks because they've been
playing from the front by twenty eight points in the
first minute of the second quarter last week. Of course,
they ran forty six times only two passes after halftime,
so that scus your run pass numbers. It also skews
their exposive plays in the pass game. The Seahawks, with
Donald Who's still number with Donald A. Smith' and Jigbert
largely are still number one in the league and exposed
(22:02):
to play fifteen yards or more in the pass game.
But the last four weeks they've been twenty second in
the league and exposed to pass players because they haven't
thrown the ball a lot. Season low twelve passes by
Darnold against Arizona because of the thirty five to nothing
lead halfway through the second quarters. None of that's going
to happen against Los Angeles. So you're going to see
(22:23):
a return to more of the deep strikes down the field.
And now they have something that the Rams defense hasn't
had to look at for most of the season in
Seattle's dressing room, and that's Rashid Shahed. So Shahed gives
them a threat for the safety down the middle of
the field.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
So now they just can't bracket. They could. But if
Kubiak sees the Brams.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
Doing what most teams have done against Smith and Jigwo
bracket coverage of a safety over the top or even
shading a safety to his side, you're going to see
more posts and deep routes on the backside, I think
with Shahed than you saw in his first game against Arizona.
They didn't take much of the cover off off of
Shhed at all because they didn't have to. So the
Rams are going to see things from Shaheed in the
(23:05):
past game Sunday they haven't seen yet on Seahawks film.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
Let's see how much Shaheed gets down.
Speaker 4 (23:10):
The field early in the game and how that might
change how the Rams defend the pass game.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
All Right, you Sam Darnold ready for this. I mean
we've seen every example for him so far this year.
I mean, he's playing as well as anybody out there. Well,
I think that this is a big game for him mentally.
I can't wait to see how he handles this because
so much has been said about his great season with
the Vikings last year, but then the last two games
(23:36):
right against the Lions and against the Rams. Against the Lions,
I studied that tape. I can't really defend it. He
didn't play terribly other than in the red zone, particularly
in the low red zone inside the ten yard line.
He missed easily four you could call it five touchdown passes.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
He just wasn't sharp. By contrast, for any fan who
just puts links those two together, I would just say
that's not how I saw it. When you watch the
Ram playoff game that the following week. That was just
a tsunami where the defensive coordinator, Chris Shula. I don't
(24:15):
understand why people aren't talking about him. I mean, you know,
his dad is David Shula, the head coach of the Bengals.
His uncle's Mike Shula, the head coach of Alabama's grandfathers
Don Shula, the legendary you know. I mean, this guy
was learning football through his umbilical court, right, and he
had everything came together for him in that game against
(24:38):
the Vikings and out coach O'Connell nine sacks Sam Donald
took in that game. But if you go, if you
take you remember watching the Super Bowl last year, Remember
how Pat Mahomes played terrible. He was under siege by
that Eagle defense. Pat Mahomes had seventeen pressures in the
Super Bowl. Sam Donald against the Rams in that playoff
(25:00):
game had twenty seven. Pat Mahomes in the Super Bowl
was pressured forty percent of the time. Sam Donald was
fifty four percent. So of all fourteen quarterbacks who played
in the playoffs last year, if you sort them by
the pressure percentage, Sam Donald's fifty four percent was number one.
He was the most pressured in the playoffs, you know,
(25:20):
and by the way, Jalen Hurts, his passer rating when
he was pressured was a twenty seven. Sam Donald still
had a better passer rating than Jared Goff did last year,
Jordan Love and Justin Herbertson in their playoff game. So
the point is it happens. It was a full team
failure by the Rams, and no matter who was the quarterback,
(25:43):
excuse me, by the vikings against the Rams, no matter
who is the quarterback, that was going to be a
rough day. So now can Sam Donald get over the
PTSD of that? Are there schematic things like having more
outlets that are available to him to avoid those sacks?
This is a really big game, in my opinion, for
(26:04):
his mental you know, I would just say his mental strength.
I'm dying to see how much grit this guy has
because he's got to be battling Greg some demons about
what everybody has been saying for months about this guy
resulting from that RAM game.
Speaker 4 (26:20):
Yeah, and we've asked him about it multiple times. He
was ready to talk about it in the spring, he
joked in the introductory press conference. When he signed here
in March. It took fifteen minutes into press conector for
someone asking him about the Rams playoff game. He said,
the biggest lesson he took out of it was he
hasked to get the ball rid of the ball sooner,
even if there aren't outlet receivers there, just get rid
of it for the sake of not taking a loss,
(26:42):
which means you have to throw up beyond the line
of scrimmage outside the parkt with those kind of things
don't get a grounding call, of course, but he blamed
a lot of it on himself for holding onto the ball,
trying to make plays down the field against the pass
rush that wasn't allowing him to do that. So the
Seahawks spent most of training camp on him getting the
ball out ultra quickly.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
You and I were standing next to each other on
a lot of those practices.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
It was like a second in a second and a half,
and with the spoon on the defensive second, they complaining
about how they couldn't even get to the quarterback and
affect him because he was Donald was getting the ball
out so quickly. He hasn't done that as much during
the season because he's done a lot of play action
passes and rollouts that have had him holding onto the
ball and allowing Smiths and Jingle to get further down
the field. That has been the net effect of Kubiak
(27:27):
running the ball fifty two percent of the time this season.
Everyone's talking about the rush game, and the numbers haven't
been there except in the Arizone game last week by
and large. But the effect there's two prongs to the
run game. One is, yeah, effective yard each and getting productivity.
Speaker 5 (27:42):
But the effective run game of fifty two percent runs
has on a defense is it allows play action and
rollouts and bootlegs to be more effective and give more
time for Donald to hold on to the ball.
Speaker 4 (27:53):
So while he's going to go into the Rams game,
when he walks in that field, he's going to remember, oh,
I got to get his ball up more quickly. He's
going to have an offensive coordinator who's going to run
the ball out early in the game, even if the
Rams stop it, so that he can Darnald can roll
out and hold on.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
The ball actually longer. It's the yin and yang of
the game.
Speaker 4 (28:11):
Yes, they'll have outlet receivers, Yes they'll have plans for
Hot Readson, for him getting the ball out quickly. But
I bet he holds onto the ball and rollouts and
bootlegs like he has most of the season with Smith
and Jake and Rashid down the field.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
And to that point, I think there's a couple factors
in this game that might lead Clint Kubiak to try
and really develop the running game. Number One, you've got
Sundell out and Olua Timmy in at center. So the
advantage in the past blocking between those two is to Sundell.
The advantage in the run game between those two is
(28:47):
Olua Timmy, so he can he can mack a little
bit inside that. So I think that's a factor. And
then furthermore, well, we mentioned that the Seahawks are number
one in nickel five dbs uh and and the the
Rams are twenty eighth in nickel in dime defense, the
(29:07):
Rams are number one, that's six dbs, so they, you know,
Clint Kubiak, you know, might be saying, Okay, you want
to play six dbs. There may be a couple of
critical third down conversions on you know, third and six,
third and seven, where you get you have a draw
or a trap or something that they they've used in
the past where they run on passing downs because they
(29:31):
feel like they can take advantage of that personnel group.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
And they are.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
There are gonna be times during the game, guys that
you maybe you guys will be throwing stuff at the
TV and they'll be Seahawk fans throwing stuff at the
TV and screaming why are they running the ball? And
it's going to be because of what you just set
against Dime and to set up later in the game,
they'll take a punt. If they'll run on third and
six against Dime, for instance, they'll take a punt so
they can set up something later off that run that
(29:58):
they failed on if they don't get it on thirday
and look for this, McDonald has a sheet of when
he goes for it, He's got all kinds of analytics,
time of game, score, position on the field, how the
defense is, all of that. He'll go on fourth downs
that you may not expect him to on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
Yeah, I'm not gonna be throwing anything. I'm not changing
anything I'm doing. If that run is being effective and
helping Sam and JSNB who they are, then why would
you try to adjust it and just drop back and
throw every single time? The way that you're putting points
on the board as of late. So, man, what a
chess match. We got more from Greg and Hugh. One
more segment and our twelfth Man round Table. We'll get
(30:36):
Greg's keys and Bucky's prediction and then Hugh's final thoughts
on Sports Radio ninety three point three KJRFM. All right,
the final segment of our twelfth Man Roundtable. And it's
(30:56):
a little special, a little larger on the marquee today
we're getting ready for Shawk's rams you mail and Greg
bell with us for an entire hour. The analysis just
you know, it just sounded purer today, didn't it sound
a little extra special, Like there's something sprinkled on top
of it, little magic dust the yeah, like there for
this game, like this will do it. Yeah, you gotta
get up for you got to bring your top game,
(31:18):
a game analysis to an a game.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (31:21):
And so final segment here, let's let's finish it off. Greg,
go ahead and get us started. What kind of game
are you expecting on Sunday and what kind of result?
I'm really curious to see where you go with this.
Speaker 4 (31:33):
Well, I think it's gonna be low scoring because I
think both defenses are going to present things that they
have offenses have not seen yet. Uh, the Rams are
rolling offensively. This is going to take quite an effort
if McDonald and his defense can do what it's done
recently to offenses against mcveigh's.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
This has been the curiosity in me since the spring.
Speaker 4 (31:55):
It didn't matter what they've done against it. Ultimately it
matters and wins and losses. But to truly know what
this team is, it didn't matter what they've done against
the Saints and the Steelers and the Cardinals and the
book Jaguars and the Texans. They have not beaten an
NFC top seventeen yet. They have not beaten a quarterback
that's in the top half of quarterback rating in the league.
(32:17):
Baker Mayfield's in the middle of that by some metrics,
and he lit him up for three hundred.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
Eighty yards at Lumenfield.
Speaker 4 (32:24):
Now they're getting an MVP candidate on his home field
with the maestro of the offense in offensive coaching in
the league and Sean McVay. Can the Seahawks impose Mike
McDonald imposed his defensive will on them.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
I think he will at times, but.
Speaker 4 (32:41):
I think ultimately Matthew Stafford right now, on the way
he's playing, is going to win the game. I'm talking
like sixteen fourteen, seventeen sixteen, narrow in the teams. It's
going to take the Seahawks getting a turnover late to
change that two three point b gap to their favor.
I'm gonna call LA winning seventeen sixteen.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
Wow. Wow.
Speaker 1 (33:05):
I think low scoring as well. But that's really low scoring.
All right, Bucky, what kind of game are you looking at?
Speaker 6 (33:10):
That's kind of where I was at too, was I
was thinking low scoring. I do think the defenses are
going to be the prominent thing. I think in these
type of games, everybody understands the situation at hand, and
so they play their cards a little bit more tight.
They're a little bit less willy nilly with throwing balls
(33:30):
up and whatnot. I think it's gonna be low scoring.
I think that it could come down to who has
the ball last, and I'm going I think if the
Rams have it, Stafford does enough to drive down getting
field goal range last second field goal, they win.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
Nineteen seventeen.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
Oh boy, there are two predictions, both Rams, all right.
Hugh Millan doesn't play predictions. He doesn't make predictions, but
what he does do is close out an hour with
some brilliant stuff.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
If that happens, it'll be a first. But listen, I
think it's worth mansie. I don't bring this up often,
but special teams expected points added. I've run the correlation
numbers on offense and defense. I know that it's a
new stat. It is a correlating it's a good stat
couldn't really give you a very detailed analysis of how
(34:18):
that applies to special teams. I just know that the
Seattle Seahawks are number one in the NFL with four
point oh four expected points averaging the special teams. The
Rams at minus three point six to two per special
teams play is thirty second. Let me repeat that again,
Seattle for best Rams worst at some point in a
(34:41):
sixty minute game that has got to play out either
obviously on some point return or maybe more discrete where
just you know, each time you just gain a little
bit more feel position and that can impact the points.
Here's why I just think this matchup is so fascinating. Offense,
neither team run the ball enough to really you know,
(35:04):
you know, talk a lot.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
About but the quarterbacks.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
You got passer rating the Seahawks their quarterback is third,
the Rams is fourth. You want the e p A uh.
Sam Donald is second, Matthew Stafford is fourth. But you
know that those speak to efficiency. No, no, no, no.
They pushed the ball down the field. Air yards per
attempt Sam Donald number one in the NFL, Matthew Stafford
(35:28):
number two. Percentage of plays where you produce twenty or
more yards in the passing game, Seattle seak Sam Donald
number one, mat Matthew Stafford number two. But and then
the defense. We've talked about some of the the the UH,
the coverage aspects. Let's just talk about the pressure here.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
Here.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
The Rams hits on quarterback their third in the league,
Seattle's fourth UH yards after catch after reception. Rams are
the best. They have the lowes. When you throw the
ball against the Rams and you get a completion, they
tackle you right on the spot. They're number one. They
have the fewest amount. But let's close with Seattle Seattle.
(36:10):
As I mentioned hits before, hurries are slightly different. In pressures,
Seattle a big margin difference difference in hurry. Seattle is
number one in the NFL on hurrying the opposing quarterback
at over eighteen per game and the Rams are at thirteen.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
That that's five. That makes a difference.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
And finally, ESPN has a pressure stat they've been doing
for a number of decades through this stage.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
In the season.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
The Seahawks have one hundred and forty six pressures in
that metrics. It's number one all time, so since they've
been doing and so at any event, I just think
it's just such a big that they mirror each other
so much.
Speaker 2 (36:59):
I disagree with a little bit, Greg.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
I mean, if you lose this game, I think sew
can still win the NFC West and and you know,
maybe they're not the number one so.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Yeah, no, I know.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
But but but we're at the point now where these
teams are good enough that you can start saying, hey,
we are we are trying to grab number one seat,
and uh you know, obviously Sunday's game is gonna be
a big part in determining whether that's a realistic goal.
Speaker 4 (37:28):
Really, this is the measuring stick though, This is why
McDonald's tired and to beat.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
Mcmick agreed, all right, Uh, well that's gonna do it
for us here today. I really think this comes down
to Matt Stafford with the ball, trying to win it
and Seahawk defensive tackle Aaron Donald Saxon.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
That's what I think.
Speaker 4 (37:49):
Some some Joe is turning on the radio right now, going, hey.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
All right, gentlemen, awesome stuff. Thank you. We'll talk to
you both tomorrow. Greg Bell, our Seahawks insider, we'll talk
to him tomorrow at seven o five, and Hugh Millen
will be with us x's and o's for more analysis
of this game at nine o'clock. Coming up next, though,
Alex Avila is going to join us from MLB Network.
He's gonna weigh in on the cow Raley versus Aaron
(38:19):
Judge MVP debate, and then we will discuss it one
final time before the show airs tonight. Sports Radio ninety
three point three KJRFM
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